A Fossil-Free Southeast Link a DESKTOP PRE-STUDY WITHIN the ROADMAPPER PROJECT

A Fossil-Free Southeast Link A DESKTOP PRE-STUDY WITHIN THE ROADMAPPER PROJECT

December 2020

to Jönköping/Stockholm/Umeå

to Gothenburg/China

MetalPressed

Parts

Alvesta

Älmhult Southeast Link

Olofström

Karlshamn Raw mtrls Harbor Hässleholm Sheet Metal

Furniture to IKEA, Älmhult Helsingborg Parts Bromölla Sölvesborg Pressed Pressed Metal Parts from Volvo, Olofström

Metal Harbor Sheet Metal Timber from Vida, Alvesta to Volvo, Olofström to Malmö/Gent

Henrik Ny Gideon Mbiydzenyuy Sven Borén Per-Ola Clemedtson Stina Apel

Blekinge Institute of Technology Research Report Nr. 2020:01 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

A Fossil Free Southeast Link A desktop pre-study within the Roadmapper project

The study was conducted in 2020 by The SustainTrans team at Blekinge Institute of Technology with support from NetPort Science park as a pre-study within the Roadmapper project, an effort to accelerate regional transitions to sustainable transport. This particular pre-study was financed by the municipalities of Karlshamn, Olofström and Sölvesborg but it also benefits the larger Roadmapper project that, in turn, is supported by a whole consortium of public and private organizations, led by the Swedish Energy Agency. The preliminary results were reported to the municipalities in December 2020 but the scientific review of the study was finalized in March 2021.

Clients

Investigators

Henrik Ny, Gideon Mbiydzenyuy, Sven Borén SustainTrans Team Department of Strategisk hållbar utveckling Blekinge Institute of Technology 37179 Karlskrona Tel: +46 455 385000 bth.se/sustaintrans

Per-Ola Clemedtson, Stina Apel NetPort Science Park 37435 Karlshamn Tel: +46 454 572120 NetPort.se

Contact Persons

Per-Ola Mattsson, Mayor, Karlshamn Municipality

Öjvind Hatt, Strategic Societal Planner, Olofström Municipality

Dr. Henrik Ny, Blekinge Institute of Technology Leader of the SustainTrans Team and Project Ledaer for this study and the Roadmapper Project.

Contakt: [email protected]

2 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Sammanfattning

Bakgrund Transportsektorn är en viktig pådrivare av både hållbarhetsutmaningen i allmänhet och klimatförändringarna. Den fungerar också som ett ’blodomlopp’ för hela samhällsstrukturen och är därmed också en förutsättning för att lösa dessa utmaningar. Sådana lösningar måste ta ett globalt perspektiv men också fungera oberoende av skala. I linje med detta tar Vägväljarprojektet, med Blekinge som första exempel, ett helhetsgrepp på omställningen till ett attraktivt och hållbart regionalt transportsystem. Alla Blekinges kommuner, länsstyrelsen, regionen, företag och statliga myndigheter är involverade. En viktig förutsättning såväl som en utmaning för Blekinge för närvarande är att uppnå fossilfrihet för Sydostlänkens järnvägs- och vägförbindelse mellan Älmhult och Karlshamn med förbindelser till Sölvesborgs hamn. För närvarande är sträckan Älmhult- Olofström ett icke-elektrifierat järnvägsspår, medan Olofström-Karlshamns hamn och Olofström- Sölvesborgs hamn endast har vägförbindelser. Volvo Cars har ambitionen att bli klimatneutralt 2040. Volvofabriken i Olofström vill därför ha en omställningsplan för fossilfri godstransport.

En hållbarhetskonsekvensanalys i tre delar I denna förstudie inom Vägväljarprojektet har kommunerna i Västra Blekinge bett SustainTrans- gruppen från Blekinge Tekniska Högskola (BTH) och NetPort Science Park att specialstudera godstrafikens omställningsmöjligheter längs Sydostlänken. Transporter till och från Volvo Personvagnar i Olofström har använts som en fallstudie för att undersöka hur man uppnår minst 40% klimatneutrala transporter fram till 2025 på ett sätt som banar väg för att med fortsätta åtgärder för att kunna nå målbilden med helt fossilfria och hållbara alternativ från 2030 och framåt. Med ”hållbart” menas här en fossilfrihet som inte uppnås på bekostnad av hållbarhet för andra sektorer som skogs- och jordbruk. Studien undersökte frågan ur tre huvudperspektiv som behandlades i tre separata delar. NetPort Science Park ansvarade för den första delen och BTH för de två sista.

Del 1. Tranportslagsbyte. Godsanalys runt Sydostlänken 2020 och i framtiden Denna del syftade till att kartlägga om nuvarande och troliga framtida godsflöden sannolikt kan motivera en elektrifierad järnvägsförbindelse ekonomiskt sett. En sådan förbindelse förväntas ge stora miljömässiga fördelar eftersom järnväg när den drivs med hållbar el och passas in i en effektiv övergripande fysisk plan är utomordentligt resurseffektiv för stora transportvolymer. Delstudien gjordes som en skrivbordsundersökning med intervjuer med större regionala godstransportaktörer. Resultaten pekar på att godstransportvolymerna kommer att bli tillräckliga för en framtida järnvägsförbindelse och att den skulle generera bredare samhällsnytta genom att:

• Fylla i en lucka i företagens logistikinfrastruktur i Sydostsverige. • Stödja en ny alternativ järnvägsrutt till sjöss och flygtransport till Asien. • Lägga till ny godskapacitet som behövs mot Östeuropa • Ta bort tillväxttrösklar för exportvaror som gasol och sågat virke. • Underlätta en allmän övergång från väg till järnvägstransport. • Lägga till logistikredundans för stora företag som Volvo Cars. • Hjälpa företag att välja klimatvänliga järnvägstransporter med hög kapacitet. • Förbättra konkurrenskraften för sydostsvenska företag. • Utöka arbetsmarknadsregionerna runt Blekinge med mer utrymme för pendling.

Del 2a. Bränslebyte. Hållbarhetsanalys av bränslelösningar 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+ Denna del syftade till att kvalitativt undersöka hur alternativa bränslelösningar skulle kunna minska ekologiska, sociala och ekonomiska hållbarhetseffekter medan regionen väntar på en potentiell framtida elektrifiering av järnväg i det studerade området. Det resulterade i följande för respektive tidsperiod:

3 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

• 2020. Utöver klimatpåverkan visade sig det dominerande dieselbränslet ha flera oacceptabla negativa hållbarhetseffekter som resursdrivna konflikter och samhällskostnader som ännu inte hade internaliserats i ekonomin. • 2021. Huvudrådet är att byta från diesel till RME för alla befintliga lastbilar och/eller tåg. HVO100 kan vara ett alternativ om palmolja och palmoljerester (som har flera negativa konsekvenser för social hållbarhet) kan uteslutas. Detta antas dock bli svårt med tanke på att det redan är brist på HVO. Biogas är också nära marknadsmognad men ett test med en flytande biogasbil på sträckan Sölvesborg-Olofström pekade på otillräcklig logistikprestanda på grund av brist på motorer som är lämpliga för erforderlig belastning. • 2025. I väntan på elektrifiering är det viktigaste nya alternativet bränslecellståg för järnvägen Älmhult-Olofström. På väg blir biogaslastbilar troligen marknadsmässiga även om de måste konkurrera med andra potentiellt mer effektiva användningsområden för biogasresursen. Andra möjliga bränslealternativ är etanol-diesel, el (via vätgasbränsleceller eller batterier) eller olika hybridkombinationer av dessa. Bränsleceller och batterier kan få råvarubrist på grund av beroende av sällsynta metaller vars gruvdrift också kan ge sociala risker. Dock kommer troligen nya materialval, återanvändning och återvinning vara på god väg att lösa problemen år 2025. • 2030+. Det viktigaste långsiktiga alternativet för Olofström-Älmhult är elektrifiering av befintligt tågspår med eller utan renovering av spåret. Viktiga alternativ för transporter som går genom Olofström-Karlshamns hamn/Sölvesborgs hamn är elektrifierade tågspår, elvägar, samt batteri- eller bränslecellslastbilar. De metallrelaterade riskerna för bränsleceller och batterier har troligen hanterats genom övergång till nya tekniska lösningar.

Del 2b. Logistikförbättringar. Kvantitativa simuleringar av identifierade nyckelfrågor Denna del syftade till att gå djupare in i kvantitativa optimeringar av nyckelfrågor som identifierats i den kvalitativa hållbarhetsbedömningen från del 2a. Det beslutades att fokusera på att uppskatta hur mycket variationer i lastbilsflottans sammansättning skulle kunna minska utsläppen av växthusgasutsläpp vid avgasröret och samtidigt möta transportbehovet som uppskattats av Volvo Cars i Olofström. För startpunkten 2020 konstaterades en minskningspotential på 20% genom att gå från ingen optimering (med endast 40 ton lastbilar med 26 ton aktiv belastning) till maximal optimering (med en blandning av lastbilar för att möta efterfrågan närmare för varje enskild resa).

Slutsatser, ytterligare arbete och rekommendationer Denna studie kan visa att en kombination av tre perspektiv kan ha en betydande potential för att påskynda övergången till hållbara godstransporter längs Sydostlänken. Mer detaljerade kvantitativa studier kommer dock att behövas för att klargöra hur man kan uppnå detta i praktiken. Följande rekommendationer formulerades baserat på studien:

• Godsköpande företag som Volvo Cars bör på kort sikt gå till RME eller palmoljefri HVO, testa biogas som en övergångslösning och så snart det blir möjligt gå över till eldrift i någon form. • Transportörer får vara beredda på snabbt skiftande krav från godsköparna och bör därför där så är möjligt använda befintliga fordon, eventuellt konvertera dem och skjuta upp större fordonsinköp tills det blir mer tydligt vilka alternativ som vinner på lång sikt. • Kommunerna bör minska flaskhalsar och underlätta samarbete mellan godsköpare och transportörer för en mer optimal användning av fordon och mer hållbara transporter. Det nuvarande regionala arbetet kring samordnad varudistribution är ett bra steg i denna riktning. På kort sikt kunde Olofström också fokusera på att hjälpa företag att gå från lastbil till järnväg och Sölvesborgs kunde testa biogasbilstransporter till Olofström och senare också batteri- och bränslecellsellastbilar samt elvägar. Karlshamn, med sina befintliga energiföretag och, biogaspotential, skulle kunna ta ledningen inom infrastruktur för alternativa bränslen.

4 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Executive Summary

Background The transport sector is an important driver of both the sustainability challenge in general and climate change. It also functions as a 'blood stream’ for the entire structure of society, and is thus also a prerequisite for solutions to these challenges. Such solutions must take a global perspective but also work at all scales. To deal with this, the Roadmapper project, with Blekinge as the first example, takes a holistic approach to the transition to an attractive and sustainable regional transport system. All Blekinge municipalities, the County Administrative Board, the Region, companies and government agencies are involved. An important prerequisite as well as a challenge for Blekinge at present is that The Southeast Link railway and road connection between Älmhult and Karlshamn harbor and connections to Sölvesborg harbor will need to become fossil-free. At present, the Älmhult-Olofström section is a non-electrified railway track, while Olofström- Karlshamn Harbor and Olofström-Sölvesborg Harbor only have road connections. Volvo Cars has the ambition to become climate neutral by 2040. The Volvo factory in Olofström therefore wants a plan to move to fossil-free freight transport.

A Sustainability Consequence Analysis in Three Parts In this pre-study within the Roadmapper project, the municipalities in Västra Blekinge have asked the SustainTrans team from Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH) and NetPort Science Park to study the transition opportunities for freight along the Southeast Link. Transport to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström has been used as a case study to investigate how to achieve at least 40% climate-neutral transport by 2025 in a way that paves the way for continued measures to reach the goal with completely fossil-independent and sustainable alternatives from 2030 and forward. By "sustainable" is meant here that the fossil-independence that will not achieved at the expense of sustainability for other sectors such as forestry or agriculture. The study examined the issue from three main perspectives that were addressed in three separate parts. NetPort Science Park was responsible for the first part and BTH for the last two.

Part 1. Modal Shift. Freight analysis around the Southeast Link in 2020 & in the Future This part aimed to map out whether current and probable future freight flows can justify an electrified railway connection economically. Such a connection is expected to provide major environmental benefits since the railway, when operated with sustainable electricity within an efficient overall spatial plan, is extremely resource-efficient for large transport volumes. This part study was conducted as a desk survey with interviews with major regional freight transport operators. The results indicate that freight transport volumes will be sufficient for a future railway connection and that it would generate a wider societal benefit by:

• Filling a missing logistics link for companies in Southeast Sweden. • Supporting a new alternative railroad route to sea and air transport to Asia. • Adding new freight capacity increase needed in Eastern Europe • Opening up growth thresholds for export goods like LPG and sawed timber. • Facilitating a shift from road to railroad transport. • Adding logistics redundancy for large companies like Volvo Cars. • Helping companies to choose climate-friendly rail transports with high capacity. • Improving the competitiveness of Southeast Swedish companies. • Growing the work market regions around Blekinge with more space for commuting.

Part 2a. Fuel Shift. Sustainability analysis of fuel solutions 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+ This part aimed to investigate qualitatively how alternative fuels solutions could reduce ecological, social and economic sustainability effects while the region waits for a potential future electrified railroad connection in the studied area. It resulted in the following for each time period:

5 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

• 2020. Beyond the negative climate impacts the dominating diesel fuel was found to have several other unacceptable negative sustainability impacts such as resource-driven conflicts and societal costs that had not yet been internalized into the economy. • 2021. The main advice is to switch from diesel to RME for all trucks and/or trains. HVO100 could be an alternative if palm oil and palmoil residues residues (that have several negative social sustainability consequences) could be excluded. This is however assumed to be difficult given that HVO is already in short supply. Biogas is also close to maturity but a test with a liquified biogas truck on the Sölvesborg-Olofström route pointed towards insufficient logistical performance due to a lack of engines suitable for the required load. • 2025. While waiting for electrification the main new alternative for the railway Älmhult- Olofström will likely be fuel cell trains. For the non railway routes the biogas truck will likely be a mature solution, even though it will need to compete against other potentially more efficient uses of the biogas resource. Other possible alternatives are ethanol diesel or electric trucks (through fuel cells or batteries) and various hybrid combinations of them. Fuel cells and batteries can run into raw material shortages due to dependence on scarce metals whose mining processes also pose social risks. Still, by 2025 new material choices and efficient reuse and recycling will likely be well on the way to deal with those problems. • 2030+. The main long term alternative for Olofström-Älmhult is electrification of the existing train track with or without renovation of the track. Key options for transports moving through Olofström-Karlshamn Harbor/Sölvesborg Harbor are electrified train tracks, electrified road, battery electric or fuel cell trucks. The metal-related risks for fuel cells and batteries have likely been dealt with by 2030 by shifting to new technical solutions.

Part 2b. Logistics Improvements. Quantitative simulations of identified key issue This part aimed go deeper into quantitative optimizations of key issues identified in the qualitative sustainability assessment from part 2a. It was decided to focus on estimating how much variations in the freight vehicle fleet could reduce the tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions while meeting the expected transport demand (as estimated by Volvo Cars in Olofström). It was found that going from no optimization (using only 40 ton trucks with 26 ton active load) to maximum optimization (using a mix of trucks to meet the demand more closely for each individual trip) could reduce the emissions by up to 20%.

Conclusions, further work and recommendations This study could demonstrate that a combination of three perspectives could have a significant potential to accelerate the transition to sustainable freight along the Southeast Link. More detailed quantitative studies will however be needed to clarify how to achieve this in practice. The following recommendations were formulated based on the study:

• Transport-buying companies like Volvo Cars should when possible switch to electric vehicles in some form but could in the short term go to FAME, palm oil-free HVO or maybe biogas. • Carriers must be prepared for rapidly changing requirements from the transport-buyers and should therefore, where possible, use existing vehicles, possibly convert them while postponing larger vehicle purchases until it becomes clearer which alternatives will win in the long term. • Municipalities should reduce bottlenecks and enable cooperation between transport buyers and carriers, as this would encourage optimal use of vehicles and more sustainable transport. The current regional work on coordinated freight distribution is a good step in this direction. In the short term, Olofström could also focus on helping companies go from truck to railway and Sölvesborgs could test biogas truck transports to Olofström. Later, battery and fuel cell trucks as well as electric roads could also be tested. Karlshamn, with its existing energy companies and biogas potential, could take the lead in infrastructure for alternative fuels.

6 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Content

1. Introduction ...... 8 1.1 From the Global Sustainability Challenges to Blekinge ...... 8 1.2 Background to this Study and the Case Company Volvo Cars ...... 8 1.3 About the key expected alternative transport solutions to cut CO2 emissions (over 3 time scales) ...... 9 2. Goal and Scope for this Study ...... 9 3. Methods ...... 9 3.1 The was framed by a strategic sustainability approach ...... 9 3.2 How methods were applied in this study ...... 12 4. Results ...... 12 4.1 Part 1. Modal Shift. Freight analysis for the Southeast Link in 2020 & in the Future ...... 12 4.2 Part 2a. Fuel Shift. Sustainability analysis of fuel solutions 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+ ...... 15 4.3 Part 2b. Logistics Improvements. Potential for reducing emissions via optimization ...... 18 5. Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 18 References ...... 19 Appendix 1. Company Perspectives on Modal Shift along The Southeast Link (in Swedish) ...... 21 Appendix 2a. A Fuel Shift Study for Volvo Cars in Olofström 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+ ...... 31 Appendix 2b. A Logistics Improvements Study ...... 39

7 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

1. Introduction

1.1 From the Global Sustainability Challenges to Blekinge

The global sustainability challenge is getting increasing attention through Agenda 2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The climate change issue is one of the biggest challenges and this has been addressed through the Paris agreement and its supporting IPCC reports (to stay within the CO2 emissions budget for 1,5 degrees). The transport sector (including surrounding energy and transport systems) are major contributors to both the sustainability challenge at large and climate change. Transport also functions as a 'blood stream’ for the entire structure of society, and is thus also a prerequisite for solutions to the challenges. It is therefore very urgent to initiate a transition towards energy efficient and sustainable transport systems that starts from a global perspective but works at all levels. In 2020 the Roadmapper was started in Blekinge to involve all key decision-makers and stakeholders to map out how a whole regional transport system could accelerate its sustainability transition fast enough to live up to the Paris Agreement.

1.2 Background to this Study and the Case Company Volvo Cars

Volvo Cars has the ambition to be climate neutral by 2040. This makes it necessary for the Volvo factory in Olofström to present a plan for how to move to fossil free freight transport. A draft plan for how to quickly cut the CO2 emissions to meet the overall company target was thereby required for the transports to and from the Volvo Cars factory in Olofström by Autumn 2020. A core part in this was that the Southeast Link railroad and road transport connection that stretches along Älmhult-Olofström-Karlshamn harbor and onwards towards Sölvesborg harbor will need to become fossil free. Currently the stretch Älmhult-Olofström is a non-electrified train track while Olofström-Karlshamn Harbor and Olofström-Sölvesborg harbor have only road connections (figure 1).

to Jönköping/Stockholm/Umeå

to Gothenburg/China

MetalPressed

Parts

Alvesta

Älmhult Southeast Link

Olofström

Karlshamn Raw mtrls Harbor Hässleholm Sheet Metal

Furniture to IKEA, Älmhult Helsingborg Parts Bromölla Sölvesborg Pressed Pressed Metal Parts from Volvo, Olofström

Metal Harbor Sheet Metal Timber from Vida, Alvesta to Volvo, Olofström to Malmö/Gent

Figure 1. The Southeast transport Link Älmhult-Olofström-Karlshamn Harbor and key freight routes to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström.

8 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

1.3 About the key expected alternative transport solutions to cut CO2 emissions (over 3 time scales)

The hypothesis going in to this study was that the actors have the following alternatives to choose from at the various time-scales:

• 2021. The main alternatives are Biogas, RME and HVO100 for trucks and/or train. • 2025. The main new alternative for Älmhult-Olofström is fuel cell trains. For Olofström- Karlshamn Harbor/Sölvesborg Harbor it is plug-in hybrid, fuel cell, Biogas, RME or HVO100 trucks. • 2030+. The main long term alternative for Älmhult-Olofström is electrification of the existing train track with or without renovation of the track. Key options for Olofström-Karlshamn Harbor/Sölvesborg Harbor are electric trucks, electrified road or electrified train tracks.

2. Goal and Scope for this Study

As key stakeholders around the transport system development and the industrial establishments in the area, Olofström, Sölvesborg and Karlshamn Municipalities have turned to the SustainTrans team at BTH to help investigating possibilities for fossil free transports to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström. More specifically, this means investigating how to achieve at least 40% climate-neutral transports by 2025. This should also be done in a way that paves the way for fully fossil free and sustainable alternatives in the longer term. The task has been divided into three parts:

• 1. Modal Shift. Freight analysis around the Southeast Link in 2020 & in the Future. • 2a). Fuel Shift. Sustainability analysis of fuel solutions 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+. • 2b). Logistics Improvements. Quantitative simulations of identified key issue.

3. Methods

3.1 The study was framed by a strategic sustainability approach

This study has been conducted in close cooperation with regional stakeholders. To ensure that our strive towards sustainable transport will not become counter-productive we aim to cover such interrelated aspects of sustainability that need to be considered not only for sustainability at large, but also for adequate measures and strategies to curb further destruction from climate change. Therefore we frame the study with the established Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development – FSSD1. This framework has been tested and used for businesses2, municipalities and regions3 and societal sectors4. It has also previously been used in southeast Sweden in the multi- stakeholder cooperation GreenCharge to investigate how electric vehicle systems could contribute to a faster transition to sustainable passenger transport5.

1 For more about this framework and its development, see Broman G.I. and Robèrt K.-H. 2017. A framework for strategic sustainable development. Journal of Cleaner Production, 140: 17-31. 2 Franca, C. 2017. Business Model Design for Strategic Sustainable Development. Doctoral thesis. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. 3 Wälitalo, L. 2020. Introductory methodological support for cross-sectoral municipal and regional strategic work for sustainability. Licentiate thesis. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. 4 Ny, H. et al. 2017. On Track for 2030: Roadmap for a fast transition to sustainable personal transport: English short version with foreword by Peter Newman. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. Research Report Nr: 2018:01. 5 For more details from the GreenCharge project and other examples of this please go to www.bth.se/sustaintrans 9 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Practical application of the FSSD is facilitated by a strategic planning procedure with operational ecological and social sustainability principles (SPs) that are derived from the above mentioned upstream errors of societal design (figure 2).

Figure 2. The eight Sustainability Principles of the FSSD within the biosphere and technosphere cycles.

Rather than trying to define exactly how sustainability should be reached the SPs are designed as a minimum set of negatively phrased constraints, designed as boundary conditions for sustainable re-design, within which any attractive goal can be modelled. The use of constraints may sound negative but actually opens up more for innovative and creative cooperation, than any positively phrased prescription. This is due to that as long as none of those boundary conditions are violated, anything can be considered.

The FSSD and the SPs have been developed in a continuous scientific consensus process since the early 1990s and they cover three broad categories:

(i) Do not destroy Nature through pollution (SP1-2) (ii) Do not destroy Nature physically (SP3) (iii) Do not destroy the Social System (SP4-8)

More specifically, the latest version of the SPs state that in a sustainable society, Nature is not exposed to systematically increasing…

• SP1 …concentrations of substances from the bedrock, e.g. fossil coal and metals. • SP2 …concentrations of substances from society's production, e.g. nitrous oxides and freons. • SP3 …physical degradation, e.g. deforestation, overfishing or hardening of vital ecosystems 10 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

… And People are not exposed to structural barriers to…

• SP4 …health, e.g. through dangerous working conditions or insufficient rest from work. • SP5 …influence, e.g. by suppressing freedom of expression or neglecting opinions. • SP6 …competence, e.g. through barriers to education and personal development. • SP7 …impartiality, e.g. through discrimination or unfair elections to positions. • SP8 …meaning-making, e.g. by suppressing culture or co-creation of meaningful conditions.

The economic dimension of sustainability is intentionally left out of the goal description that the SPs provide. This is since economics is better suited as a means to help reaching socio-ecological goals in a resource efficient way than as a goal in itself. More specifically, economics with efficient resource management could help to address violations against the SPs strategically in a step-wise manner where each new economic investment is made affordable enough to lay the ground for forthcoming steps in a transition towards full compliance with the SPs. To help with practical implementation of the FSSD, this planning mindset has been translated into a strategic planning procedure called the ABCD (figure 3):

• Step A. Model the main features of a cross-sectoral sustainable vision within the limits set by the framework's eight sustainability principles (SP 1-8, above). • Step B. Assess strengths and weaknesses of the current system in relation to the vision. • Step C. Identify possible future solutions • Step D. Prioritise among the solutions to build strategies and step-by-step roadmaps that can bridge the gap between the current and the sustainable vision of the future in an affordable way.

Figure 3. How the current unsustainable society is on a trend towards further unsustainability and destruction while a desirable fossil free and restorative sustainable future is defined by eight Sustainability Principles (SPs) (step A) and puts requirements on the current situation (step B) to define new incentives and solutions (step C) that are combined into roadmaps that can reach sustainability (step D) (based on an illustration by Stefan Borell).

11 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

3.2 How methods were applied in this study

Part 1. Modal Shift. Freight analysis for the Southeast Link in 2020 & in the Future This part aimed to map out whether current and future freight flows are likely to justify an electrified railroad link and what wider societal sustainability benefits such a link might bring. These steps were followed:

• Making desktop investigations and complementing interviews to map out freight flow statistics of companies around the Southeast Link in 2020 and to estimate the future. • Identifying some key societal sustainability benefits related to a modal shift towards railroad. • Reviewing the results with the Swedish Transport Administration’s stakeholder collaboration group for the Southeast Link.

• Making adapted sustainability indicators for the case. • Clarifying the alternative traffic solutions to be qualitatively analysed. • Gathering data and making complementary interviews with key stakeholders. • Making qualitative sustainability consequence analysis of the alternatives in relation to the sustainability indicators.

• Making complementary interviews and gathering emissions data for vehicles and fuels. • Calculating how much variations in the freight vehicle fleet composition could reduce the tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions while meeting the expected transport demand (as estimated by Volvo Cars in Olofström).

4. Results

4.1 Part 1. Modal Shift. Freight analysis for the Southeast Link in 2020 & in the Future

In 2015, NetPort Science Park conducted a survey on the business community's need for developed railway logistics in Southeast Sweden, which could be realized through the so-called Southeast Link between Älmhult, Olofström and Karlshamn. Now, with the Southeast Link established in the national infrastructure plan, it is relevant to update needs and estimated volumes to the perspective prevailing in 2020. The study in this new report has been conducted while the global covid-19 pandemic is raging. Striking, however, is that the respondents see a positive future beyond the current situation. In addition to updating the survey with a five-year newer perspective, the ambition has also been to broaden the selection of respondents, so that stakeholders who may not have been caught earlier may contribute insights. The analysis of the interviews resulted in

12 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project identification of the following expected key benefits of a new electrified railroad route along the Southeast Link (see appendix 1 for detailed interview summaries):

• Fills a missing logistics link for companies in Southeast Sweden. There is a clear need in the business community to be able to decouple mobility and transport from the negative effects of traffic. Sweden's climate law, which stipulates that traffic's climate emissions will be reduced by 70% by 2030, requires drastic measures to achieve the goal. The fact that Swedish society also has taken the goal to become climate neutral by 2045 and its recent efforts with carbon budgets to meet the Paris Agreement suggest that rapid reductions will be necessary in the coming decades. Attractive logistics solutions that consist wholly or partly of fossil free electrified rail transport are therefore in demand, but in order to become a reality, the basic requirement is that the infrastructure is in place. For companies that have operations in, or transports that affect southeast Sweden, the Southeast Link is the missing and long-awaited link in the southeast, whose sustainability benefits they want to take advantage of in their operations as soon as possible. • Supports a new alternative railroad route to sea and air transport to Asia. Within the framework of the East West Transport Corridor, the first attempts were made in 2008 with rail transport from China to Karlshamn via Klaipeda. The idea of connecting Europe with Asia via land transport was then considered exotic. Studies showed that the proportion of air freight from Asia to Europe was higher than to North America, as the lead times for sea freight to Europe are longer. There should be a niche for rail transport for goods that require faster lead times than shipping can offer, at a cost that is lower than air freight. The more manufacturing and economic activity develops inland, the more attractive the railway alternative also becomes. Today, there is regular rail traffic between Europe and Asia and volumes are increasing rapidly. According to China Railway, more than 1,000 freight trains ran between China and Europe alone in May 2020, transporting the equivlaent of 93,000 twenty foot containers, which is an increase of 48% compared to 2019. The different width of the railroad tracks on the different sides of the Baltic Sea makes it a natural boundary and a good area to create a rail hub that assembles European trains before shipping them further to the east. This study shows a clear expectation among the respondents of being able to use the railway to Asia and that the Southeast Link will be the enabler for efficiently entering freight volumes in this intermodal system. The Southeast Link would also be desirable as a new for as a new alternative to sea and air transport that support s increased trade with Asia without a detour via the Öresund Bridge, Denmark and Germany. • Adds needed freight capacity in Eastern Europe. Although the world will in many ways return to the state before covid-19, other things will change. Only trusting one or a few suppliers in the same geographical area has proved risky when nations shut down and production stops. There are already examples of manufacturing capacity being expanded in Europe to secure deliveries by having production in more places. There is an expectation that this development will benefit Eastern Europe, given the lower cost level found there. If parts of the production that currently takes place in Asia are moved to Eastern Europe, freight volumes across the southern Baltic Sea will increase, which will also drive future volumes on the Southeast Link. • Open up growth thresholds for export goods like LPG and sawed timber. Compared with five years ago, the transport of LPG by rail from Karlshamn has increased fivefold. Growing this business to that extent would not have been possible if it had not had access to rail transport. Likewise, in the last few years, the shipment of sawn timber has grown significantly thanks to railway logistics. However, the thresholds are unnecessarily high as freight traffic is crowded with passenger trains on the single track to Hässleholm and is forced to turn the locomotive on the main line or drive to Malmö to turn north. A future option to use the Southeast Link to take the straight road north to the main line in Älmhult would create the potential to grow business and volumes even more.

13 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

• Facilitates a shift from road to railroad transport. The study shows that there is a great need for railway solutions to replace road transport. Intermodal transport, where standardized load carriers lift from road to rail, is for many companies a simple solution to combine the truck's flexibility with the railway's capacity and energy efficiency. If intermodal terminals are placed in Karlshamn, Olofström and Älmhult, there will be conditions for more companies to move freight transport to rail. We also note that there is interest in investing in a new combined terminal for external customers in Olofström when infrastructure is in place and combined transport can be established. • Adds logistics redundancy for large companies like Volvo Cars. In both Olofström and Karlshamn there is railway traffic and some capacity. Olofström is really "at the end of the line" with only one connection to the national railway system, while Karlshamn in practice only has one way out, via Hässleholm. There is a lack of both capacity and redundancy. Since 2005, Volvo Cars in Olofström has on three occasions been cut off from its customers and the opportunity to deliver on time due to interruptions in rail traffic. On the same day as the decision to build the Southeast Link was announced by the Minister of Infrastructure, the train derailed between Olofström and Älmhult. Being forced to replace the entire train system's capacity by finding and renting in truck capacity is considered a very large operational risk. As soon as the Southeast Link is in place, redundancy is created in the South Swedish railway system, to the benefit of both regional and national stakeholders. • Helps companies to choose climate-friendly rail transports with high capacity. All respondents in the study express a great need to be able to choose more sustainable transport and to strive for climate-neutral activities. Over time, increasingly challengeing climate goals and strategies will be formulated within the business community. If the business does not get not sustainable, it will not remain in the long term. Different methods will be required to achieve long-term sustainability, but being able to choose climate-neutral transport is vital for business and one of the reasons why there is a demand for railway alternatives with capacity and efficiency that meet the needs. • Improves the competitiveness of Southeast Swedish companies. A company must be competitive to be economically sustainable. Inefficient transport systems reduce competitiveness and in the long run threaten companies but also the surrounding society. Freight flows flow where the resistance is the lowest, where efficient transport solutions can be offered and large flows can be coordinated and share costs. This study shows a great need for efficient rail transport both to and from south-eastern Sweden, for import and export, for national long-distance transport and for regional transport. The faster this competitiveness can be added to the region, the faster the benefits can be translated into increased economic activity and growth • Grows the work market regions around Blekinge with more space for commuting. A majority of the respondents highlight passenger traffic on the Southeast Link as an enabler for a larger labor market region and to facilitate recruitment. The communities along the Southeast Link today have limited access to time- and cost-effective public transport for work commuting, which limits the function of the labor market and the growth of companies. Better communications, a larger labor market and more choices increase the region's attractiveness, which several companies highlight. Southeast Sweden has qualities with the potential to contribute to a good future development. Historically, the focus has been on the axis from Stockholm to the southwest. There is reason to also develop the axis from Oslo and Gothenburg to the southeast. For that, a link is required, a Southeast link.

Expected Freight Flows once the Southeast is Operational. The companies interviewed are significant players with operations or transports that affect Southeast Sweden. Based on current volumes, in addition to covid-19 effects, plus concrete future plans, the needs of the companies surveyed would generate the following traffic on the Southeast Link.

14 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

• Volvo Cars in Olofström will continue to run 5 trains per day in each direction for outbound deliveries to Gothenburg and Ghent. • Deliveries from Volvo Cars to the USA and China will be run by train instead of by truck. • External customers to. Volvo cars can be offered delivery via train instead of car. • Incoming deliveries on trucks to Volvo Cars will have been replaced by 4 trains. • IKEA flows via Karlshamn will fill at least one train per day, but with the potential to triple the volume. • Vida will run at least one train per day in each direction to and from the port of Karlshamn. • Primagaz will have increased rail deliveries by a further 70% and runs a train from or to Karlshamn every day. • Södra will drive pulpwood to Mörrum a few times per week and more than that as required. • Tetra Pak currently runs 40 containers a week but expects to run full trains to the east in the future. • Tarkett sees an opportunity to multiply the 9,000 annual tonnes that are currently run by rail. • BillerudKorsnäs currentl runs 300 tonnes per week for export and looks forward to an increase to the east via Karlshamn. • AAK monitors railway solutions to be able to utilize intermodal transport in the future. • DFDS Seaways fills two trains per day in each direction with intermodal load carriers. • Green Cargo runs 2-3 wagon load trains per week in each direction. • Vänerexpressen currently runs 1 container train per day in each direction, but also expects completely new deals with import and export goods thanks to Sydostlänken. • DFDS Logistics expects to send 300 trailers per week in each direction. • Sandahl's Fulload is estimated to fill one train per day in each direction. • FoodTankers expects to continue to send 20-25 containers a week in each direction.

Many of the companies will also benefit from passenger traffic on the Southeast Link, both in terms of work commuting and long-distance travel. In addition to the companies included in the study, there are many more stakeholders who will request the new transport solutions that will be established when Sydostlänken is operational.

4.2 Part 2a. Fuel Shift. Sustainability analysis of fuel solutions 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+

Adapted sustainability indicators for the case. The eight sustainability principles of the FSSD, that frame socio-ecological goals of any system, were adapted to this case and combined with a few cost indicators to estimate whether sufficient economic return could be expected. This resulted in four indicator categories:

• Emissions to the environment (including Greenhouse gas emissions (covering SP1 of the FSSD) and Other emissions (SP1&2)). • Physical degradation of the environment (including Species decline (SP3) and Other physical destruction (SP3)). • Social structural obstacles to people (including Unhealth (SP4), Discrimination (SP5&7), Lack of knowledge (SP6) and Lack of meaning (SP8)). • Costs (including Short term (1-3 years) costs for companies, Long term costs for companies, Short term (1-3 years) societal costs, Long term societal costs and Societal metal and resource decline).

The rest of this section presents a condensed summary of the identified consequences for the main transport solutions used around the Southeast Link in relation to the four sustainability indicator 15 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project categories and over four time scales (2020, 2021, 2025 and 2030+). The consequences are shown on a scale from Unacceptable (red) to Risky (yellow) and Acceptable (green) (see appendix 2a for a more detailed analysis of how some selected individual transport routes to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström likely perform against all of the sustainability indicators).

2020. The Fossil-Dependent Starting Point. The transport solutions used in 2020 were fossil diesel trucks and trains and electric trains (figure 3). Beyond the climate impacts the dominating diesel fuel was found to have several unacceptable negative sustainability impacts such as resource- driven conflicts and societal costs that have not been internalized into the economy.

Transport Emissions to Physical Social Costs Solution Nature Destruction Barriers (SP1,2) of Nature (HP4-8) (SP3) Diesel CO2,Nox,etc Diesel supply Unhealth, Hidden (truck, train) chain resource conflict env. costs

Electricity Green (train) electricity

Figure 3. The expected Sustainability Effects of the available solutions in 2020.

2021. The First Step towards Fossil Free Fuels. Two new fuel alternatives (FAME and HVO) were considered for 2021 (figure 4). Biogas is also close to maturity but not considered here since a test with a liquified biogas truck on the Sölvesborg-Olofström route pointed towards insufficient logistical performance due to a lack of engines suitable for the required load. The analysis indicates that electric train is still the best solution overall. For diesel trains and diesel trucks it would likely be best to switch to FAME but HVO100 could be a better alternative if palm oil and palmoil residues (that have several negative social sustainability consequences) could be excluded6. This is however assumed to be difficult in 2021 given that HVO is already in short supply. Like diesel, FAME also have issues with particle emissions and it is highly resouce inefficient since it comes from farmed land so FAME should only be seen as a stepping stone towards better future solutions.

Transport Emissions to Physical Social Costs Solution Nature Destruction Barriers (SP1,2) of Nature (HP4-8) (SP3) Diesel CO2,NOx,etc Diesel supply Unhealth, Hidden (truck, train) chain resource conflict env. costs FAME biodiesel CO2 NOx, Farming (truck, train) etc. HVO biodiesel CO2 NOx, Palm Oil Resource Shortage (truck, train) etc.NO conflict

Electricity (train)

Figure 4. The expected Sustainability Effects of the available solutions in 2021.

2025. Half the Way to Fossil Free Fuels. By 2025 the biogas will likely be fully available both for trucks and trains and the other expected options are ethanol diesel for trucks and hydrogen fuel cells and batteries for trucks and trains (figure 5). Fuel cell trains will likely be a good option for the non-electrified railway Älmhult-Olofström. For the non-railway routes biogas trucks will likely be best, even though the biogas value chain still will leak methane. Ethanol diesel, hydrogen fuel

6 The well-to-wheel CO2 emissions reduction compared to diesel in Sweden for FAME is about 59% and for HVO100 about 98%, according to Energimyndigheten. 2018. Drivmedel 2018. ER 2019:14. 16 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project cell and battery electric trucks and various hybrid combinations of them could also be considered. For fuel cells, though, the cost might be an issue in the coming years7 and both fuel cells and batteries have social issues in the mining processes. Both of these solutions may also run into resource shortages due to their dependence on scarce metals. Moreover, the agricultural supply chain of Ethanol diesel may also come in conflict with food production and other important types of land use.

Transport Emissions to Physical Social Costs Solution Nature Destruction Barriers (SP1,2) of Nature (HP4-8) (SP3) Diesel CO2,NOx,et Diesel supply Unhealth, Hidden env. (truck, train) c chain Resource conflict costs

FAME biodiesel CO2 Nox, Farming (truck, train) etc HVO biodiesel CO2 Nox, Palm Oil Resource conflict Shortage (truck, train) etcNO Biogas CO2 CH4, Farming (truck, train) etc Etanol diesel CO2 Nox, Farming Converting (truck) etc Electr.(Fuel Cell) Metal (truck, train) shortage? Electr.(battery) Cobolt mines, Metal (truck, train) Resource conflict shortage? Electricity (train)

Figure 5. The expected Sustainability Effects of the available solutions in 2025.

2030+. The Arrival at Fossil Free Fuels. Over the longer term the viable options are likely reduced to biogas, hydrogen fuel cell, battery electric and electric trucks and trains (figure 6). The most promising long term alternative for Olofström-Älmhult is likely electrification of the existing train track with or without renovation of the track. Key options for transports moving through Olofström-Karlshamn Harbor/Sölvesborg Harbor are battery electric or fuel cell trucks, electrified road or electrified train tracks. The metals for fuel cells and batteries are mentioned here as risks but these may have been dealt with by 2030 through development and by shifting to new technical solutions8.

Transport Emissions to Physical Social Costs Solution Nature Destruction Barriers (SP1,2) of Nature (HP4-8) (SP3) Biogas CO2 NOx, Farming (truck, train) etc. Electr.(Fuel Cell) Metal (truck, train) shortage? Electr.(battery) Cobolt mines, Metal (truck, train) Resource conflict shortage? Electricity (train)

Figure 6. The expected Sustainability Effects of the available solutions in 2030+

7 See https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/hydrogen-production-cost (accessed 2021-02-18). 8 Fuel cell technology could for example get more competivite through breakthroughs in electrolysis that already seem to be on the way: https://phys.org/news/2019-09-electrolysis-breakthrough-hydrogen-conundrum.html (accessed 2021-02-18). 17 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

4.3 Part 2b. Logistics Improvements. Potential for reducing emissions via optimization

This part was focused on estimating how much logististics improvements through variations in the freight vehicle fleet composition could reduce the tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions while still meeting the expected transport demand (as estimated by Volvo Cars in Olofström).

In this preliminary study predefined figures of greenhouse gas emissions factors for fully loaded vehicles in rural settings were taken from the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA)9. The emission factors were then fed into the a newly developed optimization model, that was a new application of previously defined transport optimization models10. The new model combines different sizes of freight transport vehicles to meet the overall demand while minimizing total greenhouse gas emissions.

Several simulation cases were studied but the key result was the identification of a reduction potential of up to 20% for the starting point in 2020, going from no optimization (using only 40 ton trucks with 26 ton active load) to maximum optimization (using a mix of trucks to meet the demand more closely for each individual trip). This initial result will be followed up in future studies with more scenarios that use new assumptions to review this optimization problem.

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

This study aimed to investigate how to achieve at least 40% climate-neutral transports along the Southeast Link by 2025 while paving the way for fully fossil free and sustainable alternatives in the longer term. The work was divided into three parts, each covering a unique perspective:

• 1. Modal Shift. Freight analysis for the Southeast Link in 2020 & in the Future. • 2a). Fuel Shift. Sustainability analysis of fuel solutions 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+. • 2b). Logistics Improvements. Quantitative simulations of an identified key issue.

The study could demonstrate that a combination of the three perspectives could have a significant potential to accelerate the transition to sustainable freight along the Southeast Link:

• The modal shift part could show a that there are considerable freight flows that could be shifted to railroad. • ‘The fuel shift part found several emissions reducing alternative fuels and engine systems that could bridge the gap to the electrified railroad. Biofuels (e.g. FAME and biogas) should be used initially while phasing in electrified options (e.g. batteries, electrified roads or fuel cells). • The results from the logistics improvements part pointed towards an improvement potential of up to 20%.

More detailed quantitative studies and tests will however be needed to clarify how to best achieve the identified improvement potentials in practice. Some companies are already experimenting with

9 HBEFA, 2020., https://www.hbefa.net/e/index.html (last visited 2020-11-03). 10 Many models have previously been built to address the classic challenge of the Hitchcock Transportation Problem (HTP). The HTP was presented in Hitchcock, F. L. (1941). The distribution of a product from several sources to numerous localities. Journal of mathematics and physics, 20(1-4), 224-230.

18 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

The following recommendations were formulated based on the study:

• Transport-buying companies like Volvo Cars should when possible switch to electric vehicles in some form but could in the short term go to FAME, palm oil-free HVO or maybe biogas. • Carriers must be prepared for rapidly changing requirements from the transport-buyers and should therefore, where possible, use existing vehicles, possibly convert them and postpone larger vehicle purchases until it becomes clearer which alternatives will win in the long term. • Municipalities should reduce bottlenecks and enable cooperation between transport buyers and carriers, as this would encourage optimal use of vehicles and more sustainable transport. The current regional work on coordinated freight distribution is a good step in this direction. In the short term, Olofström could also focus on helping companies go from truck to railway and Sölvesborgs could test biogas truck transports to Olofström. Later, battery and fuel cell trucks as well as electric roads could also be tested. Karlshamn, with its existing energy companies and biogas potential, could take the lead in infrastructure for alternative fuels.

References

Reports, Scientific Articles and Books Broman G.I. and Robèrt K.-H. 2017. A framework for strategic sustainable development. Journal of Cleaner Production, 140: 17-31. Borjesson,̈ P., Tufvesson, L., & Lantz, M. 2010. Livscykelanalys av svenska biodrivmedel. (Environmental and Energy System Studies report no. 70; Vol. 70). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund university. de la Peña, A. G., Davendralingam, N., Raz, A. K., DeLaurentis, D., Shaver, G., Sujan, V., & Jain, N. 2020. Projecting adoption of truck powertrain technologies and CO2 emissions in line-haul networks. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 84, 102354. Dinagar, D. S., & Keerthivasan, R. 2020. Solving transportation problem with modern zero suffix method under fuzzy environment. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2261, No. 1, p. 030060). AIP Publishing LLC. EU2019/1242. REGULATION (EU) 2019/1242 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 20 June 2019 setting CO2 emission performance standards for new heavy- duty vehicles and amending Regulations (EC) No 595/2009 and (EU) 2018/956 of the European Parliament and of the Council and Council Directive 96/53/EC Energimyndigheten. 2018. Drivmedel 2018. ER 2019:14. Franca, C. 2017. Business Model Design for Strategic Sustainable Development. Doctoral thesis. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. Franca, C. 2017. Business Model Design for Strategic Sustainable Development. Doctoral thesis. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. Gass S.I., Fu M.C. 2013. (eds) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7_200907 Gass, S. I. 1990. On solving the transportation problem. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 41(4), 291-297. Hertin, E., Widegren, F., E., & Strand, J., 2018, Kartläggning av potentiella framtida ERS-projekt i Blekinge, Gävleborg och Örebro, underlag till Elvägsprogrammet, RAPPORT(TRV 2018/18530).

19 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Hitchcock, F. L. 1941. The distribution of a product from several sources to numerous localities. Journal of mathematics and physics, 20(1-4), 224-230. Ny, H. et al. 2017. On Track for 2030: Roadmap for a fast transition to sustainable personal transport: English short version with foreword by Peter Newman. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. Research Report Nr: 2018:01. Patel, R. G., Patel, B. S., & Bhathawala, P. H. 2017. On Optimal Solution of a Transportation Problem. Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 13(9), 6201-6208. Pintea, C. M., Pop, P. C., & Hajdu-Macelaru, M. 2013. Classical hybrid approaches on a transportation problem with gas emissions constraints. In Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications (pp. 449-458). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. Sharma, G., Abbas, S., & Gupta, V. 2012. Solving transportation problem with the various method of linear programming problem. Asian Journal of Current Engineering and Maths, 1(3), 81-83. Wälitalo, L. 2020. Introductory methodological support for cross-sectoral municipal and regional strategic work for sustainability. Licentiate thesis. Blekinge institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden.

Web References Bioenergitidningen. 2020. www.bioenergitidningen.se 2021-02-18). Cefic, E. C. T. A.. 2011. Guidelines for measuring and managing CO2 emission from freight transport operations. Cefic Report, 1 (2011), 1-18. https://www.ecta.com/resources/Documents/Best%20Practices%20Guidelines/guideline_for_ measuring_and_managing_co2.pdf (last accessed 2020-12-13). Energifabriken. 2021. https://energifabriken.se (accessed 2021-02-18). HBEFA, 2020., https://www.hbefa.net/e/index.html (last visited 2020-11-03). Science Direct. 2021. Hydrogen Production Costs (autogenerated summary of existing articles). https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/hydrogen-production-cost (accessed 2021- 02-18). Simonov. 2019. Electrolysis breakthrough could solve the hydrogen conundrum. https://phys.org/news/2019-09-electrolysis-breakthrough-hydrogen-conundrum.html (accessed 2021-02-18).

20 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Appendix 1. Company Perspectives on Modal Shift along The Southeast Link (in Swedish)

The Roadmapper project, with Blekinge as the first example, takes a holistic approach to the transition to an attractive and sustainable regional transport system. In this pre-study within the Roadmapper project, the municipalities in Västra Blekinge have asked the SustainTrans team from Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH) and NetPort Science Park to study the transition opportunities for freight along the Southeast Link. This appendix 1 presents the interviews behind part 1 of the pre-study. The focus was on estimating whether current and probable future freight flows can justify an electrified railway connection.

List of Interviewed Companies

• AAK, Karlshamn • BillerudKorsnäs, Frövi • DFDS Logistics, Karlshamn • DFDS Seaways, Karlshamn • FoodTankers, Karlshamn • Green Cargo, Solna • IKEA, Älmhult • Primagaz, Karlshamn • Sandahls Fulload, Olofström • Södra Skogsägarna, Växjö • Tarkett, Ronneby • Tetra Pak, Lund • Vida, Alvesta • Volvo Cars, Olofström • Vänerexpressen, Karlstad

Investigators

The interview study was performed by NetPort Science Park through Per Ola Clemedtson and Stina Apel in 2020.

21 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

AAK, Karlshamn

AarhusKarlshamn har genomgå tt stora fö rä ndringar sedan tillvä xtresan startade på allvar med fusionen mellan Aarhus och Karlshamn. Idag ä r man vä rldsledande på specialfetter, en global aktö r med ca 20 tillverkningsenheter. Livsmedelsprodukterna anvä nds t.ex. inom mejeri, bageri, choklad och konfektyr men också som brö stmjö lksersä ttning och som vegetabilisk kö ttersä ttning. Tekniska produkter anvä nds som mjukgö rare eller stearinljus och biprodukter blir foder. Inflö den ä r bl.a. 95% av svenskt rapsfrö men också olja frå n Asien och Afrika, samt halvfabrikat mellan fabriker. Huvuddelen av de nä rmare 700.000 ton som produceras i Karlshamn lä mnar fabriken i bulkbil. Destinationer ä r i regel inom 150 mils radie frå n Karlshamn. Styckegods i form av fat eller kartong lastas på bil eller container, beroende av destination.

Fö rä ndringar i framtida transportflö den kommer att drivas av krav på hå llbarhet och att leveranskedjor kommer att kortas fö r att minska risker. Strukturfö rä ndringar hos kunder, leverantö rer och konkurrenter ä r alltid på gå ende process som också på verkar men som inte kan styras.

Med de fö rutsä ttningar som idag gä ller, att olika produkter ofta samlastas i fackindelade tankbilar, ä r mö jligheterna att utnyttja jä rnvä gstransporter i nå gon stö rre omfattning begrä nsade. Industrispå ret som fö rbinder AAK med jä rnvä gsnä tet har nyligen stä ngts fö r trafik, vilket krä ver omlastning av gods eller lastbä rare. Dock utvä rderar man lö pande transportupplä gg och kommer att hå lla ö gonen på de mö jligheter som Sydostlä nken kommer att ge.

Sydostlä nken kopplar regionen till det nationella transportnä tet på ett mycket bä ttre och effektivare sä tt. Det gä ller bå de fö r godstransporter och fö r persontrafik. Sydostlä nken ö ppnar fö r pendling mellan regioner som idag inte hä nger samman pendlingsmä ssigt och det kommer att underlä tta att kunna hitta rä tt kompetens.

BillerudKorsnäs

BillerudKorsnä s ä r ett av de stö rre svenska skogsbolagen. Fokus ligger på hå llbarhet och fö rpackningar i form av vä tskekartong, fö rpackningskartong, wellpapp, kraft- och sä ckpapper.

Tillverkning sker vid fem bruk i mellersta och norra Sverige; Gruvö n, Frö vi, Skä rblacka, Gä vle och Karlsborg. Dessutom finns bruk i Finland och England. Totalt omsattes nä rmare 24 mdr SEK 2019 och koncernen sysselsä tter 4.500 anstä llda. Stö rsta marknaden ä r Europa, fö ljd av Asien.

Med rö tterna i hå llbarhet strä var man efter att utnyttja jä rnvä g fö r sina transporter så lå ngt det ä r mö jligt. BillerudKorsnä s driver ett dotterbolag, ScandFibre Logistics, som ä r specialiserat på jä rnvä gstransporter och erbjuder ä ven externa kunder sina tjä nster.

De stö rst flö dena gå r frå n bruken på jä rnvä g via O resundsbron till Vä steuropa och till hamnarna i Gö teborg, Norrkö ping och Gä vle fö r sjö transport till andra marknader.

De fö rä ndringar som man fö rvä ntar sig, fö rutom ö kande volymer, ä r att kunna ö ka jä rnvä gstransporterna ä n mer och minska lastbilstransporterna. Det kan ske bå de genom konventionella och intermodala transporter. Man hå ller ö gonen på utvecklingen av jä rnvä gstransporter ö sterut till Asien, men ä nnu ä r inte det upplä gget konkurrenskraftigt fö r BillerudKorsnä s produkter.

Fö r nä rvarande har man inte nå gon utskeppning via Blekinge, men det finns fö rhoppningar att å teruppta ett flö de på 15.000 ton till sydö stra Europa via Karlshamn. Potentiella flö den via Sydostlä nken ä r också volymer till Asien och Ryssland om konkurrenskraftiga jä rnvä gstransporter utvecklas på bå da sidor om sö dra O stersjö n.

22 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Generellt ä r investering i ny tå ginfrastruktur vä lkommet, det ä r trå ngt på spå ren. Ny jä rnvä g skapar mö jlighet att utveckla godstransporter på jä rnvä g, parallellt med persontrafiken.

DFDS Logistics

Karlshamnsdelen av DFDS Logistics har fokus på transporter ö sterut, till och frå n Baltikum, Ukraina, Ryssland och andra CIS-lä nder. Upptagningsområ det ä r framfö r allt Sverige, Norge och Storbritannien. Fö rutom den internationella trafiken bedrivs inrikestrafik, lagring och distribution. Sedan 2015, nä r en liknande undersö kning gjordes har volymerna ö kat med 40% medan flö dena i stort ä r desamma.

Transporterna på vä g utfö rs med egna lastbä rare och inrikestrafiken med egna ekipage, medan den internationella trafiken kö rs av kontrakterade dragbilså kare. Fä rjetransporter sker i fö rsta hand med DFDS Seaways fä rjor och jä rnvä gstransporter kö ps in som intermodal transport med trailer eller container, men också genom omlastning av gods. Den senare lö sningen anvä nds ex. fö r att dra exportgods till Karlshamn fö r omlastning till trailers infö r transport ö sterut. I Baltikum lastar man också om 150.000 ton till jä rnvä g fö r vidare transport ö sterut.

Man fö rvä ntar sig att jä rnvä gstransporter till Asien kommer att få ett genombrott framö ver och bli ett rimligt alternativ till lå ngsam sjö transport och dyrt fraktflyg, inte minst fö r transporter till och frå n de inre delarna av Asien. Det kan bli frå ga om stora volymer. Utveckling av effektiva jä rnvä gslö sningar frå n sydö stra O stersjö n ä r viktigt fö r att konkurrera med trafik via Tyskland eller Finland.

Sydostlä nken ä r då en fö rutsä ttning fö r att få dessa volymer till och frå n Karlshamns hamn och få r då dubbelriktad effekt: sjö gods till Asien norrut mot Gö teborg och jä rnvä gsgods till Asien sö derut fö r utskeppning via O stersjö n.

Fö r dagens flö den ger Sydostlä nken mö jligheter att skapa effektiva koncept med intermodala transporter. DFDS Logistics bedö mer att 200 trailers i veckan i Storbritannientrafiken skulle kunna kö ras via Sydostlä nken till Gö teborg och då ersä tta landtransporter via kontinenten eller trafik via Danmark. Dessutom bedö mer man att ca 100 trailers i veckan i trafik till och frå n Sverige skulle kunna lyftas frå n vä g till Sydostlä nken.

Andra effekter av Sydostlä nken ä r persontrafiken ö kar attraktionskraften fö r regionen, fö renklar kompetensfö rsö rjningen fö r arbetsgivare och underlä ttar så vä l arbetspendling som lä ngre tå gresor fö r resenä rer. Godstransporterna på Sydostlä nken kommer att ö ka ö ver tid eftersom godsflö den flyter dä r det ä r enklast och då kommer stora volymer att attrahera ä n stö rre.

DFDS Seaways

DFDS Seaways ä r en del av den danska DFDS-koncernen och ett av Europas stö rsta fä rjerederier med 56 fartyg i trafik, bl.a. i O stersjö n, Nordsjö n, Engelska kanalen och Medelhavet. Under 2019 omsatte man 16,6 miljarder DKK.

DFDS trafikerar linjen mellan Karlshamn och Klaipeda, med 9 avgå ngar i veckan i vardera riktningen. 2019 fraktades 1,3 miljoner meter frakt (ca 90.000 enheter), 60.000 chauffö rer och drygt 100.000 passagerare.

Upptagningsområ det frå n Karlshamn ä r Sverige, Norge, Danmark och delvis Storbritannien via Gö teborg. Mer ä n 60% har riktning mot nordvä st, d.v.s. i en riktning som ä r relevant fö r Sydostlä nken.

Upptagningsområ det frå n Klaipeda omfattar Baltikum, Ryssland, Vitryssland, Ukraina och vidare till Stilla Havet i ö ster och Svarta Havet i sydost. Frå n Klaipeda nå r jä rnvä gstransporter hela Ryssland, Asien och sydö stra Europa.

23 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Tillvä xten har ö ver tid varit ca 7% per å r genom vä xande ekonomier och genom allt stö rre geografisk marknad. Det ä r fullt mö jligt att nuvarande Coronakris kommer att leda till att produktion flyttas frå n Asien till O steuropa, fö r att minska riskerna. Detta kommer i så fall att gynna tillvä xten. Man fö rbereder nu fö r nä sta generation fartyg som kommer att som avsevä rt kommer att ö ka kapaciteten på linjen.

Sydostlä nken kommer att underlä tta effektiva flö den, inte minst på lä ngre distanser och fö rstorar dä rmed upptagningsområ det. Den fö rstä rker dä rmed fä rjelinjelinjen mellan Karlshamn och Klaipeda som den primä ra fö rbindelsen mellan Sverige och Baltikum.

Nä r Sydostlä nken ä r operativ ser man en potential att kunna flytta ca 60 trailers per dygn frå n vä g till kombitrafik på jä rnvä g, motsvarande 2 hela tå g/dygn i vardera riktningen.

Fö rutom att minska belastningen på vä garna och minska miljö belastningen bidrar Sydostlä nken till redundans i jä rnvä gssystemet i sydost, till nytta fö r hela samhä llet.

FoodTankers

FoodTankers startades 1955 som Evert Olssons A keri fö r att transportera eldningsolja frå n den då nya oljehamnen i Karlshamn, så ledes en konsekvens av en infrastruktur- satsning. Idag ä r man en europeisk tanktransportspecialist fokuserad på flytande livsmedel och med dotterbolag i Holland, Polen och Ungern.

En sidoverksamhet ä r utleveranser av gasol frå n Primagaz-terminalen i Karlshamn – en koppling tillbaka till dä r det en gå ng bö rjade. Idag sysselsä tts ca 200 personer, ca 120 ekipage och omsä tter ca 250 Mkr.

Med Karlshamn och sö dra Sverige i centrum tä cker FoodTankers hela Europa men med hö gre frekvens i Norden och norra delarna av kontinenten. Stora flö den gå r frå n Norden till Vä st- och Centraleuropa, liksom frå n Sö dra till Mellansverige.

Fö rä ndrade flö den ä r avhä ngiga kundernas beslut. Om en kund byter produktleverantö r behö ver det inte betyda fö rä ndrade volymer fö r FoodTankers men fö rä ndrar riktning och volymbalanser. Likaså krä vs anpassning till livsmedelsindustrins strukturfö rä ndringar.

FoodTankers menar att om jä rnvä gstransporter skall kunna utvecklas och konkurrera med landsvä g, ex. genom intermodala lö sningar, må ste bå de infrastruktur med geografisk tä ckning och tillrä cklig kapacitet finnas liksom attraktiva trafiklö sningar på spå ren. Sydostlä nken skapar dä rfö r fö rutsä ttningar fö r att flytta ö ver gods frå n vä g till intermodala transporter. Bedö mningen ä r att 20- 25 tankcontainers fö r livsmedel kommer att transporteras på Sydostlä nken. Till detta kommer transporter av gasol.

Sydostlä nken ä r också en mö jliggö rare fö r persontransporter, så vä l lå ngvä ga resor, ex. till Stockholm, som pendling, vilket fö rstorar arbetsmarknaden och ö kar attraktionskraften fö r sydö stra Sverige.

Green Cargo

Med rö tterna i svensk tå gtrafiks ursprung ä r Green Cargo ä ldsta och stö rsta godstransportö r på jä rnvä g. Green Cargo ä gs av staten genom Nä ringsdepartementet och tä cker hela Sverige med sin trafik. Med partners nå r man ö vriga Europa. 2019 transporterades 22 miljoner ton gods och fö retaget omsatte 4,1 mdr SEK med hjä lp av 1.800 anstä llda, 360 lok och 5.000 vagnar.

Green Cargo har en bred palett av transportlö sningar. Vagnslast erbjuder fasta leveranstider till 300 orter i befintliga tå gavgå ngar fö r enskilda vagnar. Systemtå g ä r kundspecifika transportlö sningar mellan fasta destinationer, ofta med hela tå g. Intermodala transporter kö rs mellan 40 terminaler efter fast tidtabell. Dessutom kö r man egna direktlinjer till Belgien, Italien och O sterrike.

24 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Framtida fö rä ndringar av godsflö den styrs, liksom fö r andra transportfö retag, av kundernas behov. Avgö rande ä r var effektiva tå glö sningar kan bildas och vilken frekvens som behö vs fö r att tillgodose kunderbehoven.

På samma sä tt kommer det att vara kundbehoven som styr vilka volymer som Green Cargo kommer att transportera på Sydostlä nken. Av dagens volym som rö r Karlshamn och Sö lvesborg skulle ca 2.500 vagnar per å r eller 50 per vecka rimligen destineras via Sydostlä nken. Volymerna som berö r Olofströ m ä r då exkluderade.

Sydostlä nken kommer att stä rka jä rnvä gens konkurrenskraft, vilket ger fö rutsä ttningar till stö rre transportvolymer på jä rnvä g och dä rmed minska miljö på verkan och minska vä gtrafiken. Den ö kande volymen har man fö rhoppning att inkludera i sin affä r.

IKEA

Fö r stora delar av vä rldens befolkning ä r IKEA sinnebilden fö r detaljhandel inom heminredning. Sedan starten i A lmhult 1943 har koncept som fungerar på global nivå utvecklats och finslipats. A lmhult ä r fortsatt ett viktigt nav fö r verksamheten.

Drivet av medvetenhet och kundkrav har man satt ambitiö sa hå llbarhetsmå l fö r hela IKEA; att vara socialt och miljö mä ssigt positivt å r 2030. Det betyder bl.a. att alla produkter skall vara designade frå n bö rjan att vara en del i det cirkulä ra kretsloppet och tillverkas av fö rnybara och å tervunna material. Service och tjä nster ska stö dja strategin, ex. ska alla hemleveranser vara utslä ppsfria 2025.

Frå n leverantö rer i 51 lä nder ö ver hela vä rlden transporteras 10.000 artiklar till 433 varuhus i 52 lä nder. Koncernen omsä tter 41,3 miljarder EUR och sysselsä tter 211 000 personer. Generellt planerar man fö r en 10% å rlig volymö kning och sö ker stä ndigt efter nya, hå llbara transportlö sningar fö r att utveckla allt mer effektiv och hå llbar logistik.

Fö r Sydostlä nken ä r flö dena frå n leverantö rer i ö stra Europa till varuhus i Skandinavien av sä rskilt intresse. Idag skeppas 6-7000 enheter (trailers eller 40-45 fots containers) in via Karlshamn och skulle med fö rdel utnyttja Sydostlä nken i ett intermodalt upplä gg. Gods som idag rullar på gummihjul skulle då lyftas till jä rnvä g redan i hamn.

Med vä l fungerande lö sningar fö r importflö den frå n ö vriga Europa och frå n resten av vä rlden finns potentialen att frakta ytterligare 16.000 enheter via Sydostlä nken.

Ett stort antal anstä llda pendlar in till A lmhult. Med persontrafik på Sydostlä nken underlä ttas arbetspendling och bil kan ersä ttas med tå g. Sydostlä nken mö jliggö r fö r IKEA att man kan minska den miljö på verkan som transporterna orsakar idag. Fö r samhä llet i ö vrigt ä r stark infrastruktur en nö dvä ndighet fö r utveckling och tillvä xt.

Primagaz

Primagaz ä r en del av SHV Energy, som ä r vä rldsledande leverantö r av gasol. Terminalen i Karlshamn, som tidigare drevs av E.ON, har tillstå nd att hantera 400.000 ton/å r och ä r ett nav fö r gasol i sö dra O stersjö n. Gasol ä r flytande vid hö ga tryck och vid lå ga temperaturer. Den transporteras till Karlshamn med specialbyggda tankbå tar och lagras i underjordiska bergrum som rymmer 78.000 ton.

Fö r utleveranser disponerar man 50 specialbyggda jä rnvä gstankvagnar. Fö r kunder utan jä rnvä gsanslutning anvä nds tankbilar. De hö ga tryck som krä vs gö r tankarna tunga och lastfö rmå gan fö r fullstora lastbilsekipage begrä nsas till ca 30 ton medan jä rnvä gsvagnarna lastar 55 ton. Den polska marknaden fö rsö rjs med mindre tankbå tar.

25 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Två gå nger i veckan lä mnar två heltå g lastade med gasol Karlshamn med destination Borlä nge. Andra jä rnvä gsflö den hanteras inom vagnslastsystemet, varav 9.000 ton lastas ö ver till tankbil fö r distribution till kunder utan spå ranslutning i Mellansverige.

Sammanlagt 75.000 ton transporteras på jä rnvä g norrut frå n Karlshamn, vilket ä r 5 gå nger mer ä n 2015, då fö rra undersö kningen gjordes. Eftersom jä rnvä gskapaciteten ä r fö r knapp har man få tt tacka nej till nya kunder med å rsvolym på ytterligare ö ver 50.000 ton. Sydostlä nken skulle snabba upp och fö rkorta varje tå gtransport då man slipper trä ngas med persontrafik på Kustbanan och Skå nebanan via Hä ssleholm. Fö r vagnslasttrafiken ä r fö rdelen ä n stö rre då den kö rs via Malmö fö r rangering och belastar dä rfö r Sö dra stambanan i onö dan.

Fö r att kunna vä xa vidare behö ver också rangeringskapaciteten i Karlshamns hamn utö kas, nå got som nu ä r på gå ng att genomfö ras. Totalt finns alltså ett kapacitetsbehov på Sydostlä nken fö r ca 2.300 vagnar med gasol, vilket blir nä rmare ett tå g per dag i vardera riktningen. En fortsatt expansion ö kar volymen ä n mer.

Fö rutom fö rbä ttrad logistik, leveranssä kerhet och dä rmed konkurrenskraft fö r så vä l Primagaz som ö vrigt nä ringsliv, bidrar Sydostlä nken till att fö rstora arbetsmarknaden i sydost. Det underlä ttar rekrytering och att locka fler invå nare till en attraktiv region. Fö r lä ngre resor blir tå g ett alternativ till flyg nä r Sydostlä nken ä r på plats.

Sandahls Fulload

Sandahls Fulload ä r en del av Sandahlsbolagen, ett av Sveriges stö rsta privata transportfö retag med en bred palett av tjä nster, frå n styckegods till hellaster. Unikt ä r att Sandahls via dotterbolaget Real Rail driver en omfattande kombitrafik i Sverige. 110.000 TEU hanteras å rligen på deras tå g och kombiterminaler. Koncernen omsä tter ca 1,9 mkr och sysselsä tter 700 personer.

Sandahls Fulload har sin bas i Olofströ m och de stö rsta flö dena gå r mellan Sydö stra/sö dra Sverige och Gö teborgsområ det. Ett stort flö de ä r också sö dra Sverige till Norrland men detta kö rs på lastbil till Gö teborg fö r omlastning fö r vidare jä rnvä gstransport till Norrland.

Liksom andra transportfö retag har man svå rt att bedö ma framtid fö rä ndringar i godsflö den. Det gä ller att ha en tä t kontakt med kunderna, så att man kan justera verksamheten efter kundernas marknads- och strukturfö rä ndringar. Inom ramen fö r befintliga transportflö den kan dock mycket nytta skapas i samverkan med kunder, exempelvis just kombitrafikslö sningar, effektivare resursutnyttjande och att strä va fö r CO2-neutrala transporter.

Den stora potentialen med Sydostlä nken som Sandahls Fulload ser ä r att etablera en kombiterminal i Olofströ m, som komplement till de terminaler som idag finns inom Volvo Cars. Steget till att etablera och driva en kombiterminal i hjä rtat av en industribygd ä r inte lå ngt fö r Sandahlsbolagen mot bakgrund av den verksamhet som man bedriver inom koncernen idag.

Volymen som skulle kunna flyttas frå n vä g till jä rnvä g ä r betydande. Med tyngdpunkt på Gö teborg och Norrland borde inledningsvis 1 tå g om dagen trafikera Olofströ m med Sandals lastbä rare. Till det kommer framtida fö rä ndringar och volymö kningar, samt andra aktö rer som kan lockas av vä l fungerande jä rnvä gslö sningar med en kombiterminal på plats.

Den stora vinnaren på Sydostlä nken ä r miljö n. Det ä r så mycket enklare att uppfylla kraven på CO2- neutrala transporter nä r de lä ngre strä ckorna kö rs på jä rnvä g och bara inhä mtning och distribution rullar på miljö anpassade lastbilar. Andra effekter av Sydostlä nken ä r ö kad konkurrenskraft fö r den omgivande regionen, inte minst industriklustret kring Olofströ m. Det ger ekonomisk tillvä xt, fler arbetstillfä llen och en positiv utveckling av bå de nä ringsliv och samhä llet i stort.

26 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Södra Skogsägarna

Sö dra Skogsä garna ä gs av 52.000 skogsä gare och har till huvuduppdrag att trygga lö nsamt skogsbruk hos medlemmarna. Det gö r man bl.a. genom att bedriva nä ringspolitisk verksamhet och verksamhet i tre affä rsområ den: Sö dra Skog, som kö per in och sä ljer skogsrå vara, Sö dra Wood, som fö rä dlar virke till 1,8 miljoner m3 så gade trä varor vid sju så gverk, samt Sö dra Cell, vä rldsledande leverantö r av pappersmassa som i bruken i Vä rö , Mö nsterå s och Mö rrum tillverkar 1,9 miljoner ton massa. 2019 omsattes 23 mdr SEK.

Med en av må nga efterfrå gad kretsloppsrå vara ä r fokus på hå llbarhet logisk och må let ä r att vara fossilfria 2030. Mycket ä r gjort men framfö rallt fö r utgå ende transporter finns mer kvar att gö ra. I Mö rrum tillverkas numera dissolvingmassa och hä r finns också en unik process fö r å tervinning av textil.

Inflö dena kommer frå n skogar i framfö r allt sö dra Sverige men också som import frå n lä nder i nä rområ det. Utgå ende flö den gå r frå n så gverk och massabruk frä mst till Europa och Asien. Lastbil, tå g och bå t anvä nds bå de fö r in- och utgå ende flö den, beroende på fö rutsä ttningarna. Intermodala lö sningar ö kar så att rena lastbilstransporter kan minska.

Volymen till Asien och USA ö kar medan Europa ä r stabilt. Man kan se att Coronakrisen fö rstä rker trender som att skriv- och tryckpapper, liksom tidnings- och returpapper minskar i volym, medan kartong och mjukpapper ö kar.

Karlshamns hamn har blivit en mer komplett och strategiskt viktig terminal som knyter samman sjö -, jä rnvä g-, intermodala- och landsvä gstransporter på ett bra sä tt. Ju mer volymer som hanteras och ju fler aktö rer som utnyttjar Karlshamn hamn, ju mer nytta skapas fö r så vä l Sö dra som ö vriga. Sö dra ö nskar fler inkommande containers fö r att få mer balanserade flö den.

Sydostlä nken ses framfö r allt som en fö rstä rkning av infrastrukturen i sö dra Sverige och dä rmed en mö jliggö rare av nya lö sningar och flö den. Dessutom fö rstä rks stabiliteten i systemet genom mer kapacitet och redundans. Primä rt berö rs rå varufö rsö rjning till Mö rrum, som delvis redan idag kö rs på jä rnvä g. Med Sydostlä nken kan också svenska lö vmassaved bli mer konkurrenskraftig jä mfö rt med den import som idag sker.

Sydostlä nken ä r en vital del i utvecklingen av effektiva transporter i sydö stra Sverige, till nytta fö r hela regionen – och naturligtvis då ä ven Sö dra.

Tarkett

Tarkett ä r bland vä rldens stö rsta golvtillverkare, omsä tter ca € 3 miljarder och har 12 500 anstä llda. Huvudkontoret finns i Paris. I Ronneby gö rs homogena plastgolv fö r en global marknad. Hä r finns också distributionslagret fö r Norden. Det finns ytterligare ca 30 tillverkningsenheter i vä rlden.

Tarkett har stort fokus på hå llbarhetsfrå gorna. De plastgolv som tillverkas i Ronneby ingå r numera i ett kretslopp, dä r gamla golv sä nds i retur fö r å tervinning. Må let ä r att 80% av produktionen ska tillverkas av å tervunnet material. Likaså strä var man efter att flytta transporter frå n vä g till jä rnvä g och sjö transporter så lå ngt som detta ä r mö jligt. Hamnen och kombiterminalen i Karlshamn ä r dä rfö r nyckelresurser fö r Tar- ketts framtida externlogistik.

Inflö det till Ronneby ä r i fö rsta hand pulver och granulat som skeppas i bulkcontainers och -trailers frå n Europa. Inflö den utgö rs också och i allt hö gre grad av begagnade plastgolv i retur till Ronneby fö r å tervinning.

Utleveranserna sker idag med bil till Norden, Vä st- och O steuropa. Till samtliga marknader utanfö r Europa lastas 20”-containters som skeppas ut frå n containerham- nar på vä stkusten. Vilka rederier

27 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project och destinationer som servas ä r avgö rande fö r val av hamn. Redan idag transporteras 9.000 ton med jä rnvä g frå n Karlshamn.

Tarkett ser ett stort behov av jä rnvä gstransporter på Sydostlä nken. Sydö stra Sverige har varit styvmoderligt behandlat under lå ng tid nä r det gä ller infrastruktur. Behoven finns nu och ju lä ngre det drö jer tills trafiken ä r igå ng ju stö rre risk att Blekinge tappar i konkurrenskraft och att tillverkning fö rlä ggs nå gon annanstans. Sydostlä nken ä r bö rjan på nå got bra som ska stö dja en positiv utveckling, inte bli en del av ett framtida stö dpaket.

Hå llbarhetsskä l ä r det viktigaste skä let till varfö r man fö rordar jä rnvä gstransporter, men det krä vs attraktiva upplä gg fö r att man ska kunna vä lja jä rnvä g. Man må ste kunna lita på att tidtabeller och leveranstider hå ller, att frekvensen ä r tillrä cklig och naturligtvis att priset ä r konkurrenskraftigt. Med fler bra jä rnvä gstransporter finns mö jlighet att må ngdubbla volymerna som nu gå r på jä rnvä g frå n Karlshamn, dels genom ö verflyttning frå n vä g och dels genom ö kande leveranser, in- och returflö den i framtiden.

Sydostlä nken, med så vä l gods- som persontrafik, stä rker Blekinge och ger oss nå got som vi ä r i stort behov av idag; ett bä ttre och miljö vä nligare transportsystem.

Tetra Pak

Tetra Pak bildades 1951 som ett dotterbolag till A kerlund & Rausing. Idag ä r man vä rldsledande på fö rpackningar, fyllningsmaskiner och processenheter fö r flytande livsmedel. Omsä ttningen ä r 11,5 mdr €, skapad av ca 25.000 anstä llda varav 4.000 i Lund. Tillverkning sker vid 55 fabriker i 30 lä nder och under 2019 så ldes mer ä n 190 mdr fö rpackningar i 160 lä nder.

Stora flö den ä r kartong frå n pappersbruk och fö rpackningsmaterial, plastremsor och korkar frå n andra tillverkningsenheter i Sverige till Tetra Paks fabriker runtom i vä rlden. Inom Europa anvä nder man mest jä rnvä gstransport. Till marknader utanfö r EU anvä nds sjö - och jä rnvä g.

Kina ä r sedan 10-15 å r stö rsta marknaden och hä r finns också 3 fabriker. Nu kö rs jä rnvä g i bå da riktningarna med kartong och fä rdigt fö rpackningsmaterial. A ven om visst material kan kö pas lokalt ö kar transportvolymerna å r frå n å r.

Tetra Pak ser Sydostlä nken som en fö rdel fö r transporterna ö sterut, till bl.a. Baltikum, Ryssland och Kina. Visionen ä r att kö ra heltå g till Kina i den takt som behoven anger, men det krä vs bra infrastruktur ä ven på strä ckan fram till dä r tå get ö sterut avgå r ifrå n, så att jä rnvä gsflö dena blir effektiva och kan kompensera fö r hö gre fraktkostnad jä mfö rt med sjö transport.

Med ett intermodalt nav i sydö stra O stersjö n finns mö jlighet att kö ra 40 containers per vecka till Kina. Dessutom finns flö den till Ryssland, som idag gå r på bil, men också importvolymer frå n Europa till Sverige och Norge som skulle kunna vinna på att skeppas via Karlshamn och vidare via Sydostlä nken.

Vida

VIDA ä r en så gverkskoncern med ca 1 100 anstä llda vid 18 produktionsanlä ggningar. Produktionen ä r i huvudsak inriktad på konstruktionsvirke. Ca 75% av produktionen exporteras till Europa, USA, Australien, Afrika och Asien. Koncernen omsä tter 6,5 mdr SEK och huvudkontoret finns i Alvesta.

Inleveranser frå n skog till så g sker till stö rsta delen med lastbil men på lä ngre strä ck- or ö kar jä rnvä gstransporterna. VIDA driver sedan 2005 jä rnvä gstransporterna i egen regi med 180 vagnar. Av 9 så gverk i sö dra Sverige har 4 spå ranslutning. Utleveranser i form av virkespaket lastas på bil eller jä rnvä g fö r export huvudsakligen via Karls- hamn, eller via Varberg. I ö vrigt lastas trailers fö r export inom Europa eller containers fö r oceanskeppningar.

28 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

VIDA fö rvä ntar sig fortsatt ö kande volymer och man strä var efter att utnyttja jä rnvä g ä n mer i framtiden. Idag tvingas tvingas man kö ra via Hä ssleholm fö r att komma till och frå n Karlshamn, vilket dubblar strä ckan och orsakar orimligt lå nga omloppstider fö r fö rare, lok och vagnar. I Hä ssleholm krä vs också en lokvä nding på Sö dra Stambanan fö r att komma till Blekinge. Allt detta sä nker jä rnvä gens konkurrenskraft.

Sydostlä nken ä r av stö rsta betydelse fö r Vidas vidare utveckling och ger fö rutsä ttningar fö r effektiva jä rnvä gstransporter. O kad konkurrenskraft och snabbare omloppstider ger mö jlighet att ö ka jä rnvä gstransporterna ä n mer frå n dagens 4-5 tå g/vecka. Samtidigt avlastas Sö dra Stambanan, Hä ssleholms bangå rd, Skå nebanan och Blekinge Kustbana, vilket ger mer utrymme fö r persontrafik istä llet.

Sydostlä nken har betydelse ä ven fö r rå varuflö den. Då man importerar timmer sker det i regel via Karlshamn och fyller det egna tå get på vid retur till Små land. Med ö kande containertrafik via Karlshamn ö kar också mö jligheterna att samordna ä ven dessa med den ö vriga trafiken till och frå n Karlshamn.

Vida ä r mycket angelä gna om att Sydostlä nken snarast bö rjar byggas så att man kan dra nytta av denna saknade lä nk i det sydsvenska transportsystemet.

Volvo Cars

Volvo Cars ä r en global personbilstillverkare med sammansä ttningsfabriker i Sverige, Belgien, Kina och USA. 2019 så ldes drygt 700.000 bilar. Verksamheten i Olofströ m organiseras i dotterbolaget Volvo Cars Body Components (VCBC) hä r finns huvuddelen av kompetensen och presskapaciteten fö r att forma plå t till karosskomponenter. Det mesta som syns på en Volvo-bil, oavsett var i vä rlden den rullar, kommer med stor sannolikhet frå n Olofströ m.

Volvo Cars har stor betydelse fö r Sverige och Volvo Cars i Olofströ m har oerhö rd betydelse, inte bara fö r Olofströ m och Blekinge, utan fö r sö dra Sverige. 2.700 personer ä r direkt sysselsatta, betydligt fler ä r indirekt beroende av Volvo Cars, som dessutom ä r motorn i ett regionalt industrikluster, numera samlat inom organisationen TechTank. De stö rsta inflö dena ä r stå lcoils via hamnen i Sö lvesborg, som kö rs på 74- tonslastbilar i en takt på 30- 40 laster per dygn. Varje dag anlä nder också 12-13 40- tonslastbilar med stå l frå n kontinenten.

De stora utflö dena gå r på jä rnvä g till Gö teborg och till Gent i Belgien. Idag kö rs 20-25 tå g i vardera riktning per vecka via A lmhult. Leveranser till USA-fabriken kö rs på lastbil till utskeppningshamn på vä stkusten medan leveranser till Kina kö rs på bil till Karlshamn och vidare på tå g till Gö teborg fö r utskeppning. Stå l- och aluminiumskrot transporteras till å tervinning via jä rnvä gen till A lmhult. Externa kunder få r hä mta sina leveranser i Olofströ m eftersom det idag inte finns kapacitet i jä rnvä gssystemet fö r att erbjuda samordning.

Framö ver kalkylerar man med bibehå llen volym men med delvis annorlunda innehå ll, med mindre komponenter som kan packas mer transporteffektivt. Man ser också fram emot att jä rnvä gstransporter till och frå n Asien ska bli konkurrenskraftig och ersä tta oceangå ende bå ttransport.

Sydostlä nken skapar två jä rnvä gar ut frå n Olofströ m, vilket ger redundans i systemet. Vid minst tre tillfä llen i modern tid har jä rnvä gen blivit obrukbar. Fö r att inte bilfabrikerna ska stanna av komponentbrist har all ledig lastbilskapacitet behö vt engageras. Det ä r inte hå llbart att leva med så stora risker.

Fö r att leva upp till Volvo Cars höga ambitioner om klimatneutralitet och energieffektivitet behö ver jä rnvä gens andel av transporterna, bå de av gods och fö r arbetspendling, ö ka och Sydostlä nken ä r avgö rande fö r att nå dit.

29 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Volvo Cars i Olofströ m skapar konkurrenskraft genom effektiv produktion och vä rldsledande kompetens hos personalen, men man har en uppenbar konkurrensnackdel i form av lä get. Varje kalkyl bö rjar med en hö gre logistikkostnad som må ste kompenseras och avslutas med en riskkostnad fö r vad som kan hä nda i form av stö rningar under transport. Sydostlä nken har avgö rande betydelse fö r att sä kra framtida konkurrenskraft och ö verlevnad. Med Sydostlä nken kommer 10-20% fler tå g att kö ras i Volvo Cars egen logistik, vilket blir 25-30 tå g per vecka. 4 tå g per dag kan ersä tta lastbilar på inkommande flö den. Dessutom kan leveranser till Kina, USA och externa kunder flyttas frå n landsvä g till jä rnvä g den dag Sydostlä nken ä r i drift.

Vänerexpressen

Vä nerexpressen ä r en nischad inlandsspeditö r med fokus på stora kombitrafikflö den, ofta i import- eller exporttrafik. Man kö r jä rnvä gspendlar i egen regi frå n Gö teborg till Vä rmland och Dalarna, men också chartrade pendlar som den som idag kö rs mellan Gö teborg och Karlshamn.

Trender som på verkar framtida utveckling ä r att trä industrins transporter containeriseras och att massa- och pappersindustrin bygger ut sin kapacitet, samtidigt som efterfrå gan på marknaderna i Asien, inte minst Kina, ö kar. Jä rnvä gstransporter till och frå n Asien utvecklas alltmer som ett snabbare alternativ till sjö transport men systemet i Sverige behö ver vä ssas om direkttrafik via ex. Klaipeda ska vara konkurrenskraftigt i fö rhå llande till omvä gen via hubbar i Tyskland.

Bristen på lastbilschauffö rer gynnar jä rnvä gstransporter och med nuvarande glesare persontrafik p.g.a. covid-19 mä rks hur effektiv godstrafik på jä rnvä g kan bedrivas. Det visar på behovet av att eliminera flaskhalsar i jä rnvä gssystemet.

Sydostlä nken ö ppnar nya alternativ, upplä gg dä r nya produkter och flö den kan kombineras. Kapaciteten i systemet i sydost ö kar. Idag ä r kapaciteten på kustbanan en begrä nsning, bå de vad gä ller tidtabell och tå glä ngder. Det finns bå de hanteringskapacitet och godsmä ngder i Karlshamn idag och med Sydostlä nken ö ppnas mö jligheter att i stor skala transportera på jä rnvä g till ex. Mä lardalen.

Med Sydostlä nken skapar också mö jlighet till effektiva flö den via jä rnvä g till Asien utan att belasta Skå ne och Danmark fö r omvä gen via Tyskland. De stora mä ngder import- och exportgods som finns i Små land och Blekinge kan vä lja mellan sjö transport via ex. Gö teborg eller jä rnvä gstransport via Karlshamn, vilket ö ppnar helt nya mö jligheter.

Fö rutom dessa nya upplä gg ser man stora volymer, som idag transporteras på bil till och frå n Karlshamn, kan lyftas till jä rnvä g, vilket skulle ö ka dagens pendeltrafik frå n 1-2 per vecka till 4-5 per vecka.

Utö ver ny och ö kad trafik skapar Sydostlä nken redundans och kapacitet i jä rnvä gssystemet i sö dra Sverige. Bå de stambanan och kustbanan avlastas och flaskhalsar fö rsvinner tack vare en effektivare vä g norrut frå n Karlshamn.

30 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Appendix 2a. A Fuel Shift Study for Volvo Cars in Olofström 2020, 2021, 2025, 2030+

The Roadmapper project, with Blekinge as the first example, takes a holistic approach to the transition to an attractive and sustainable regional transport system. In this pre-study within the Roadmapper project, the municipalities in Västra Blekinge have asked the SustainTrans team from Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH) and NetPort Science Park to study the transition opportunities for freight along the Southeast Link. This appendix 2a describes part 2a of the pre- study and makes a more detailed sustainability analysis of some selected key transport flows to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström from 2020 to 2030+. All of the sustainability indicators that were designed in the methods section above were used:

Below, the sustainability indicator consequences of fuels and vehicles used are assessed over four time scales (2020, 2021, 2025 and 2030+) for each of the selected transport routes (figure 7). The consequences are shown on a scale from Unacceptable (red) to Risky (yellow) and Acceptable (green).

Pressed to Gothenburg/China Metal Parts

Alvesta

Älmhult Southeast Link 3a 2a 1b VCBC 3b Olofström Figure Legend Hässleholm 6 1a. Pressed metal parts. VCBC-Karlshamn Harbor

4 1a 1b. Pressed metal parts. Karlshamn Harbor-Gbg

1b 1c. Pressed metal parts. Gbg-China

1b Karlshamn 2a. Pressed metal parts. VCBC-Älmhult Harbor 2b. Pressed metal parts. Älmhult-Gothenburg Bromölla Sölvesborg 3b 2c. Pressed metal parts. Gothenburg-Torslanda Harbor Sheet Metal 3a. Pressed metal parts. VCBC-Älmhult

Pressed 3b. Pressed metal parts. Älmhult-Gent Metal Parts 4. Sheet metal. Sölvesborg Harbor-VCBC to Malmö/Gent

Figure 7. The Southeast transport Link Älmhult-Olofström-Karlshamn Harbor and some selected numbered key freight routes to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström (VCBC). 31 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 1a. Pressed metal parts. VCBC - Karlshamn Harbor

Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline finite resource dependence of Dependence platinum? rare of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? new for Metals infrastructure (electric and line contact new rails) Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term high Climate effects change climate Low effects change climatemedium effects change climate Low effects change climate Low effects change Conversion of requires engines subsidies Negligeable societal costs Negligeable societal costs societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) Resp. diseases Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. Negligeable societal costs societal Low electric for costs upgrades grid Initial High investment cost Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic Volvo Costs Long-term high CO2 tax & oil price, insurance, etc lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? Cost to convert engines? due costs Lower and dev techn to of economies scale? cheap of Lack lithium? Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) diesel cost incl CO2 tax, etc be to expected more 10-20% ca than expensive diesel (as in 2020) be to expected cheaper 20% ca in (as diesel than 2020) be to expected similar fuel cost in (as diesel as 20% but 2020) for extracosts new engines Price neutrality to compared diesel Cost of (in electrolysis? twice2020 as high as from fuels) fossil Price neutrality to compared diesel? Fewer trans shipment activities Lack of Lackof meaning oil dependence resource effects conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (e.g. effects cultural decline) cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) lack of knowledge oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (lack of education) Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social Discrimination oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (corruption) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts effects (displacing indigenous people)? cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (corruption) Unhealth oil dependence w effects respiratory conflicts resource & (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) dependence cobolt & env work bad w conflicts resource (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) Other Physical destruction surface use for oil extraction & value chain Palm oil dependence? Agricultural land dependence? Agricultural land dependence Energy rest of recovery products Agricultural land dependence impact No impact No impact No Species decline Species Oil spills &Oil spills facilities? Palm oil dependence? Monoculture? Monoculture? impact No Monoculture? impact No impact No impact No ecological(SP1-3) effects Other Emissions NOX, PM, HC, POP, POP, HC, PM, NOX, heavy metals fr use & vehicle fuel, & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, >PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains? fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains? impact No impact No impact No GHG emissions GHG CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 98%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To fr CO2e 59%less use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To Ca 80%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 90%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain. CO2e fr train infrastructure construction? Comments/Questions Availability? HVO in Availability? stilleryd (Neste MY HVO100: w waste, food oil, rapeseed PFAD, tall etc) oil, source: energifabriken.se RME Availability? in stilleryd (rapeseed bio oil, methanol) source: energifabriken.se in biogas Availability? stilleryd Availability? (ED95) source: energifabriken.se Nymölla? Availability? Södra cell? 100% renewable Assumes fuel and fuel electr.for hydrogen production, cell fr electrolysis Charging stations? 100% renewable Assumes and fuel for electricity battery production train electric by Replaced älmhult-gothenburg to 100% renewable Assumes and electricity CO2e for compensation tracktrain fr emissions infrastructure Year TrpSolution 2020 usingtruck Diesel existingroads and station gas 2021 truck HVO using existingroads and stations gas 2021 usingtruck RME existingroads and stations gas 2025 truckusingBiogas existingroads and stations gas 2025 Diesel Ethanol existiing using roadsand new tanksexisting at stations 2025 Cell HydrogenFuel using truck Electric existingroads and stations new 2025 Electric Battery Truckusing existingroads and charging new stations 2030+ uisng Train Electric electrified new track train

32 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 1b. Pressed metal parts. Karlshamn Harbor – Gbg

Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline Utilizes existing existing Utilizes infrastructure existing Utilizes infrastructure new for Metals infrastructure (electric and line contact new rails) Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term Lower societal societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) No investment investment No needed investment No needed Initial High investment cost Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic Volvo Costs Long-term Fewer trans shipment activities Fewer trans shipment activities Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) Fewer trans shipment activities Fewer trans shipment activities Fewer trans shipment activities Lack of Lackof meaning lack of knowledge Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social Discrimination Unhealth Other Physical destruction No impact No impact No impact No Species decline Species No impact No impact No impact No ecological(SP1-3) effects Other Emissions No impact No impact No impact No GHG emissions GHG Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain. CO2e fr train infrastructure construction? Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain. CO2e fr train infrastructure construction? Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain. CO2e fr train infrastructure construction? Comments/Questions from khamn harbor to harbor? gothenburg green buying Assumes electricity train electric by Replaced älmhult-gothenburg to Year TrpSolution 2020 using train Electric existingelectrified track train 2021 using Train Electric elecrified existing track train 2030+ using train Electric electrified existing track train

33 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 1c. Pressed metal parts. Gbg - China

finite resource dependence of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline Climate change effects Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term Resp. diseases Resp. Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic high CO2 tax & oil price, insurance, etc lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? cheap of Lack lithium? Volvo Costs Long-term HFO cost incl incl cost HFO CO2 tax, etc be to expected more 100% ca than expensive 2020) in (as HFO be to expected 100%more fuel expensive HFO than cost (as in 2020) and for extracosts new engines/fuel energy Lower (mainly cost battery and charging) high initial boat investment Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) oil dependence resource effects conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) Lack of Lackof meaning oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (lack of education) lack of knowledge Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (corruption) Discrimination oil dependence w effects respiratory conflicts resource & (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) Unhealth surface use for oil extraction & value chain Palm oil dependence? Agricultural land dependence? Energy rest of recovery products N.A. Other Physical destruction Oil spills &Oil spills facilities? Palm oil dependence? Monoculture? N.A. N.A. Species decline Species ecological(SP1-3) effects NOX, SOx, PM, HC, HC, PM, SOx, NOX, heavyPOP, metals fr use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains N.A. Other Emissions CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 90%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 80%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain emissions added fr CH4 leakage Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains GHG emissions GHG Availability? Availability? Feasibility? Comments/Questions 2020 Oil Fuel Heavy (HFO) Boat using existingboat infrastructure 2021 usingBoat HVO existingboat infrastructure 2025 usingBoatBiogas nw and boat new tankstation 2030+ Boat Sail/Electric boat new using andcharging new station Year TrpSolution

34 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 2a. Pressed metal parts. VCBC - Älmhult

Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline finite resource dependence of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? of Dependence platinum? rare of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? new for Metals infrastructure (electric and line contact new rails) Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term high Climate effects change climate Low effects change climatemedium effects change climate Low effects change climate Low effects change Engine Conversion requires subsidies Negligeable societal costs Negligeable societal costs Negligeable societal costs societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) Resp. diseases Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. societal Low electric for costs upgrades grid Negligeable societal costs societal Low electric for costs upgrades grid Initial High investment cost Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic Volvo Costs Long-term high CO2 tax & oil price, insurance, etc lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? Cost to convert engines? cheap of Lack lithium? Second life for batteries when electrified? train due costs Lower & dev techn to of economies scale? 2nd life of fuel cell train engine? cheap of Lack lithium? Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) diesel cost incl CO2 tax, etc be to expected more 10-20% ca than expensive diesel (as in 2020) be to expected cheaper 20% ca in (as diesel than 2020) be to expected similar fuel cost in (as diesel as extra but 2020) new for costs engines? Price neutrality to compared diesel Price neutrality to compared diesel? cost Investment for new batteries? Cost of (in electrolysis? twice2020 as high as from fuels) fossil Price neutrality to compared diesel? Fewer trans shipment activities Lack of Lackof meaning oil dependence resource w (e.g. conflicts cultural decline) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) cobolt dependence w resource (e.g. conflicts cultural decline) lack of knowledge oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (lack of education) Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social Discrimination oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (corruption) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (displacing indigenous people)? cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (corruption) Unhealth oil dependence w effects respiratory conflicts resource & (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) dependence cobolt & env work bad w conflicts resource (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) Other Physical destruction surface use for oil extraction & value chain Palm oil dependence? Agricultural land dependence? Agricultural land dependence Energy rest of recovery products Agricultural land dependence impact No impact No impact No impact No Species decline Species Oil spills &Oil spills facilities? Palm oil dependence? Monoculture? Monoculture? impact No Monoculture? impact No impact No impact No impact No ecological(SP1-3) effects Other Emissions NOX, PM, HC, POP, POP, HC, PM, NOX, heavy metals fr use & vehicle fuel, & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, >PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains? impact No impact No impact No impact No GHG emissions GHG CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 98%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To fr CO2e 59%less use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To Ca 80%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 90%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain track train fr & construction? Comments/Questions Emissions? HVO in Availability? stilleryd (Neste MY oil, rapeseed w HVO100: waste,food PFAD, tall oil, etc).source: energifabriken.se in biogas Availability? stilleryd trainNew engine Availability? (ED95) source: energifabriken.se up back a as only Diesel Charging stations in älmhult/olofström? Hydrogen Availability? station? tank Charging stations? 100% renewable Assumes and fuel for electricity battery production 100% renewable Assumes and electricity CO2e for compensation track train fr emissions construction Year TrpSolution 2020 Train electric Diesel train existing using track 2021 using train HVO existingtrain track 2021 using train RME exisitngtrain track 2025 using train Biogas existingtrain track andgas stations 2025 train diesel Etanol train existing on tanks new & track stations existing at 2025 (diesel+ Hybrid on train battery) existingtrain track, tank & motor new station 2025 cell Hydrogenfuel train electric on existingtrain track, tank & motor new station 2025 electric Battery on existing train new track, train motor, new chargingstations 2030+ using train Electric electrified new track train

35 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 2b/2c. Pressed metal parts. Älmhult – Torslanda/Torslanda - Gbg

Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline Utilizes existing existing Utilizes infrastructure finite resource dependence new for Metals infrastructure (electric and line contact new rails) Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term Lower societal societal Lower to due costs higher trp syst efficiency high Climate effects change climate Low effects change climatemedium effects change societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) No investment investment No needed diseases Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. Initial High investment cost Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic Volvo Costs Long-term Fewer trans shipment activities high CO2 tax & oil price, insurance, etc lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) Fewer trans shipment activities diesel cost incl CO2 tax, etc be to expected more 10-20% ca than expensive diesel (as in 2020) be to expected cheaper 20% ca in (as diesel than 2020) Fewer trans shipment activities Lack of Lackof meaning oil dependence resource (e.g. conflicts cultural decline) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) lack of knowledge oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (lack of education) Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social Discrimination oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (corruption) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (displacing indigenous people)? Unhealth oil dependence w effects respiratory conflicts resource & (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) Other Physical destruction No impact No surface use for oil extraction & value chain Palm oil dependence? Agricultural land dependence? Agricultural land dependence impact No Species decline Species No impact No &Oil spills facilities? Palm oil dependence? Monoculture? Monoculture? impact No ecological(SP1-3) effects Other Emissions No impact No POP, HC, PM, NOX, heavy metals fr use & vehicle fuel, & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, >PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains impact No GHG emissions GHG Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain track train fr & construction? CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 98%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To fr CO2e 59%less use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain. CO2e fr train track construction? Comments/Questions Assumes 100% renewable Assumes in change (no electricity 2030+) or 2025 Emissions? HVO in Availability? stilleryd (Neste MY oil, rapeseed w HVO100: waste,food PFAD, tall oil, etc) source: energifabriken.se RME Availability? tank station? green buying Assumes electricity Year TrpSolution (2a) 2020 on Train Electric existingelectrified to track train Torslanda (2b)2020 train electric Diesel train existing on torslanda fr track togothenburg (2b)2021 on train HVO existingtrain track fr torslanda to gothenburg (2b)2021 on train RME existingtrain track fr torslanda to gothenburg (2b)2025 using train Electric electrified new track train

36 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 3a/3b. Pressed metal parts. VCBC – Älmhult / Älmhult - Gent

finite resource dependence of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? of Dependence platinum? rare of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? new for Metals infrastructure (electric and line contact new rails) existing Utilizes infrastructure Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline high Climate effects change climate Low effects change climatemedium effects change climate Low effects change climate Low effects change Conversion of requires engines subsidies Negligeable societal costs Negligeable societal costs Negligeable societal costs societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term Resp. diseases Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. societal Low electric for costs upgrades grid Negligeable societal costs societal Low electric for costs upgrades grid Initial High investment cost investment No needed Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic high CO2 tax & oil price, insurance, etc lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? Cost to convert engines? cheap of Lack lithium? Second life for batteries when electrified? train due costs Lower and dev techn to of economies scale? fuel of life 2nd engine? cell cheap of Lack lithium? Fewer trans shipment activities Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs Long-term diesel cost incl CO2 tax, etc be to expected more 10-20% ca than expensive diesel (as in 2020) be to expected cheaper 20% ca in (as diesel than 2020) cost to expected like diesel (as in extra but 2020) new for costs engines? Price neutrality to compared diesel Price neutrality to compared diesel? cost Investment for new batteries? Cost of (in electrolysis? twice2020 as high as from fuels) fossil Price neutrality to compared diesel? Fewer trans shipment activities Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) oil depend. resource (e.g. conflicts cultural decline) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (e.g. effects cultural decline) cobolt dependence w resource (e.g. conflicts cultural decline) Lack of Lackof meaning oil dependence resource w of (lack conflicts education) lack of knowledge Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social oil dependence resource w conflicts (corruption) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (displacing indigenous people)? cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (corruption) Discrimination oil dependence w effects respiratory conflicts resource & (e.g. lack of healthcare) dependence cobolt & env work bad w conflicts resource (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) Unhealth surface use for oil extraction & value chain Palm oil dependence? Agricultural land dependence? Agricultural land dependence Energy rest of recovery products Agricultural land dependence impact No impact No impact No impact No impact No Other Physical destruction Oil spills &Oil spills facilities? Palm oil dependence? Monoculture? Monoculture? impact No Monoculture? impact No impact No impact No impact No impact No Species decline Species ecological(SP1-3) effects Other Emissions NOX, PM, HC, POP, POP, HC, PM, NOX, heavy metals fr use & vehicle fuel, & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, >PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains? impact No impact No impact No impact No impact No GHG emissions GHG CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 98%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To fr CO2e 59%less use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To Ca 80%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 90%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain. CO2e fr train infrastr. Constr.? Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel valuechain. CO2e fr train infrastructure construction? Comments/Questions Emissions? HVO in Availability? stilleryd (Neste MY oil, rapeseed w HVO100: waste,food PFAD, tall oil, etc).source: energifabriken.se RME Availability? tank station? in biogas Availability? stilleryd trainNew engine Availability? (ED95) source: energifabriken.se up back a as only Diesel Charging stations in älmhult/olofström? Hydrogen Availability? station? tank Charging stations? 100% renewable Assumes and fuel for electricity battery production train electric by Replaced 100% w gothenburg to & electricity renew. CO2e for compensation tracktrain fr emissions infrastr. constr. green buying Assumes electricity Year TrpSolution (3a) 2020 train electric Diesel train existing using track (3a) 2021 using train HVO existingtrain track (3a) 2021 using train RME exisitngtrain track (3a) 2025 using train Biogas existingtrain track andgas stations (3a) 2025 train diesel Etanol train existing using andnew track tanksexisting at stations (3a) 2025 (diesel+ Hybrid w train battery) exist.train track, new & motor new tankstation (3a) 2025 cell Hydrogenfuel train electric w exist.train track, new & motor new tankstation (3a) 2025 electric Battery existing w train new track, train motor & new chargingstations 2030+(3a) using train Electric electrified new track train (3b)2020 using train Electric existingtrain track

37 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Trp 4. Sheet metal. Sölvesborg Harbor – VCBC ‘ finite resource dependence of Dependence platinum? rare of Dependence and cobolt rare lithium? new for Metals infrastructure (electric and line contact new rails) Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Metal & resource decline high Climate effects change climate Low effects change climatemedium effects change climate Low effects change climate Low effects change Conversion of requires engines subsidies Negligeable societal costs Negligeable societal costs societal Lower to due costs higher trp system efficiency Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) Long-term Resp. diseases Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. diseases Resp. diseases? Resp. Negligeable societal costs societal Low electric for costs upgrades grid Initial High investment cost Societal Costs Costs Societal (SE) (1- Short-term 3yrs) Economic Effects (strategic guidelines) (strategic Effects Economic high CO2 tax & oil price, insurance, etc lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? lack cheap of feedstock? Cost to convert engines? due costs Lower and dev techn to of economies scale? cheap of Lack lithium? Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs Long-term diesel cost incl CO2 tax, etc be to expected more 10-20% ca than expensive diesel (as in 2020) be to expected cheaper 20% ca in (as diesel than 2020) be to expected similar fuel cost in (as diesel as 20% but 2020) for extracosts new engines Price neutrality to compared diesel Cost of (in electrolysis? twice2020 as high as from fuels) fossil Price neutrality to compared diesel? Fewer trans shipment activities Volvo Costs (1- Short-term 3yrsafter investment) oil dependence resource effects conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts (e.g. effects cultural decline) cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (corruption) cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (e.g. cultural decline) Lack of Lackof meaning oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (lack of education) lack of knowledge Sustainability assessment Sustainability Social Effects (SP4-8) Effects Social oil dependence resource w effects conflicts (corruption) Palm oil dependence w land conflicts effects (displacing indigenous people)? platinum dependence w resource effects conflicts (corruption) cobolt dependence w resource effects conflicts (corruption) Discrimination oil dependence w effects respiratory conflicts resource & (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) dependence cobolt & env work bad w conflicts resource (e.g. of lack effects healthcare) Unhealth surface use for oil extraction & value chain Palm oil dependence? Agricultural land dependence? Agricultural land dependence Energy rest of recovery products Agricultural land dependence impact No impact No impact No Other Physical destruction Species decline Species Oil spills &Oil spills facilities? Palm oil dependence? Monoculture? Monoculture? impact No Monoculture? impact No impact No impact No ecological(SP1-3) effects Other Emissions NOX, PM, HC, POP, POP, HC, PM, NOX, heavy metals fr use & vehicle fuel, & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr POP HC, >PM, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains? fr HC PM, SOx, NOX, use & fuel, vehicle & infrastructure value chains? impact No impact No impact No GHG emissions GHG CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 98%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To fr CO2e 59%less use & fuel value acc. (WTW chain EM) To Ca 80%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 90%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel value chain, some CO2e fr metals value chains Ca 95%? less CO2e fr use & fuel valuechain. CO2 fr train track constr? Comments/Questions Availability? HVO in Availability? stilleryd (Neste MY HVO100: w waste, food oil, rapeseed PFAD, tall etc) oil, source: energifabriken.se RME Availability? in stilleryd (rapeseed bio oil, methanol) source: energifabriken.se in biogas Availability? stilleryd Availability? (ED95) source: energifabriken.se Nymölla? Availability? Södra cell? 100% renewable Assumes fuel and fuel electr.for hydrogen production, cell fr electrolysis Charging stations? 100% renewable Assumes and fuel for electricity battery production train electric by Replaced Sbg harbor to olofström Year TrpSolution 2020 usingtruck Diesel existingroads and station gas 2021 truck HVO using existingroads and stations gas 2021 usingtruck RME existingroads and stations gas 2025 truckusingBiogas existingroads and stations gas 2025 Diesel Ethanol existiing using roadsand new tanksexisting at stations 2025 Cell HydrogenFuel using truck Electric existingroads and stations new 2025 Electric Battery Truckusing existingroads and charging new stations 2030+ w Train Electric exist.&new train electrified track

38 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Appendix 2b. A Logistics Improvements Study

Background

The Roadmapper project, with Blekinge as the first example, takes a holistic approach to the transition to an attractive and sustainable regional transport system. In this pre-study within the Roadmapper project, the municipalities in Västra Blekinge have asked the SustainTrans team from Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH) and NetPort Science Park to study the transition opportunities for freight along the Southeast Link. This appendix 2b describes part 2b of the pre- study and goes deeper into quantitative optimizations of key issues identified in the qualitative sustainability assessment from part 2a.

The case company is Volvo Cars Body Component (VCBC) in Olofström that sends finished pressed metal products to other parts of the world such as Belgium, China and USA. Rail transport accounts for about 80% of total transports with the remaining transports by road11. Each day there is an average of 10-15 train transports to Volvo12.

Goal and Scope

The more specific goal of part 2b of this pre-study was to understand current road-based freight flow patterns around Volvo Cars Body Components (VCBC) Olofström and to estimate how much logistics optimization could reduce their tail pipe CO2 emissions.

While inbound and outbound freight flows to Volvo have their origins and destinations in both Sweden and Europe, this report focuses on freight flows in and around Blekinge. This makes it possible to understand the effects that such emissions may have in the Blekinge area in addition to facilitating the move towards a climate-neutral VCBC and Blekinge region as a whole. This report focuses on freight transport with Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) (‘trucks’ for short).

Methodological Context

Since the first-ever EU-wide CO2 emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, were adopted in 2019, setting targets for reducing the average emissions from new Lorries for 2025 and 203013, it is necessary for transport organizations to identify suitable strategies for reducing emissions14. This report focuses on CO2 emissions resulting from road freight transport. This is not only because CO2 is a major contributor to Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, but also because this report seeks to identify energy efficient strategies for freight transportation to and from VCBC. In the current fossil-fuel dependent transport system CO2 correlates directly with energy consumption.

11 See Part 1 of this study: Clemedtsson, P. O., 2020. Company Perspectives on Modal Shift along The Southeast Link (in Swedish). 12 Hertin, E., Widegren, F., E., & Strand, J., 2018, Kartläggning av potentiella framtida ERS-projekt i Blekinge, Gävleborg och Örebro, underlag till Elvägsprogrammet, RAPPORT(TRV 2018/18530). 13 EU2019/1242. REGULATION (EU) 2019/1242 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 20 June 2019 setting CO2 emission performance standards for new heavy-duty vehicles and amending Regulations (EC) No 595/2009 and (EU) 2018/956 of the European Parliament and of the Council and Council Directive 96/53/EC 14 Cefic, E. C. T. A. (2011). Guidelines for measuring and managing CO2 emission from freight transport operations. Cefic Report, 1(2011), 1-18. https://www.ecta.com/resources/Documents/Best%20Practices%20Guidelines/guideline_for_measuring_and_managing_co2. pdf last accessed 2020-12-13 39 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

The minimum transportation costs routes for supplying products from several production facilities to a number of cities is a well-researched problem since Hitchcock15 formulated it. This problem, also known as “The Transportation Problem” (TPM)16, which is a special case for a class of linear optimization problems17. The solutions to this problem have inspired solutions a range of other related problems including inventory control, employment scheduling, personnel assignment but also hybrid variants where cost is minimized with constraints on emissions18. Common approaches to solving the problem include North-West corner method (NWCM) or Least-Cost Method (LCM) or Vogel’s Approximation Method (VAM)19 and more recently it was solved with new methods such as the Modern Zero Suffix (MOZES) method20. Most of the methods solves the problem to optimality albeit at different convergence speeds.

Methods Used and Results

This report adapts “The Transportation Problem” by modelling the different types of trucks and sizes necessary to deliver products to VCBC similar to warehouse supplies (Figure 1). A newly developed Environmental Transport Model (ETM) uses indata on distances and vehice sizes to model optimal vehicle combinations to meet the transport demand per week for each studied road stretch (e.g., Olofström to Karlshamn) while minimising the related simulated tail pipe CO2 emissions. In this case the CO2 emissions correspond to the unit costs of shipment normally used in TPM.

The proposed ETM freely selects any number of each type of vehicle (ideally this should follow the Swedish fleet distribution) allowing for formulating the problem as a balanced transportation problem. This is a reasonable assumption since the transport market is liberalised and the transport- buying customer (Volvo Cars in this case) can always, theoretically, award contracts to any of the transport organizations.

15 Hitchcock, F. L. (1941). The distribution of a product from several sources to numerous localities. Journal of mathematics and physics, 20(1-4), 224-230. 16 Sharma, G., Abbas, S., & Gupta, V. (2012). Solving transportation problem with the various method of linear programming problem. Asian Journal of Current Engineering and Maths, 1(3), 81-83. 17 Gass, S. I. (1990). On solving the transportation problem. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 41(4), 291-297. 18 Pintea, C. M., Pop, P. C., & Hajdu-Macelaru, M. (2013). Classical hybrid approaches on a transportation problem with gas emissions constraints. In Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications (pp. 449-458). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. 19 Patel, R. G., Patel, B. S., & Bhathawala, P. H. (2017). On Optimal Solution of a Transportation Problem. Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 13(9), 6201-6208. 20 Dinagar, D. S., & Keerthivasan, R. (2020, October). Solving transportation problem with modern zero suffix method under fuzzy environment. In AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 2261, No. 1, p. 030060). AIP Publishing LLC. 40 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

KarlshamnàVCBC

VCBCàKarlshamn

HelsingborgàVCBC

VCBCàHelsingborg

SölvesborgàVCBC

Figure 1. Transport routes, variation in truck size and relations to external factors and effects.

A Vogel Approximation Method (VAM) for solving the problem suggests a selection of vehicles that minimizes the total emissions under different supposed scenarios21. Several scenarios were studied but here we focus on the most relevant that used VCBC demand for 2020. While data about transport demand has been provided by VCBC, the model relied on input data in the form of emission factors as a result of different truck sizes (7.5 tons to 50 tons payload) from the simulation model by the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA)22. This handbook provides emission factors for HGVs as well as for other vehicle categories such as buses and coaches. Emission factors include tailpipe CO2 emissions as well as other pollutants including fuel consumption. HBEFA provides a European-wide (including Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, Norway and France) base model for emission factors. It does not however address emissions related to rail transportation.

More specifically, the results of this study were obtained using the following steps:

1. VCBC estimated the total weekly transports to and from VCBC on selected road and railroad segments to about 280000 ton-km with trucks and 1140000 ton-km with rail (see table 1 for more details)23.

Table 1 –Summary of selected freight flows (2020) to and from VCBC in Olofström Road Segments Distance (km) Vehicle Type Fuel Payload (ton/trip) Karlshamn - VCBC 30 Truck Diesel 3,9 VCBC - Karlshamn 30 Truck Diesel 17 Helsingborg - VCBC 155 Truck Diesel 3,9 VCBC - Helsingborg 155 Truck Diesel 10 Sölvesborg - VCBC 34 Truck Diesel 50 VCBC – Älmhult (Gtb) 50 Train Diesel 1100 VCBC – Älmhult (Gent) 50 Train Diesel 1040

21 (2013) Vogel's Approximation Method (VAM). In: Gass S.I., Fu M.C. (eds) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7_200907 22 HBEFA, 2020., https://www.hbefa.net/e/index.html (last visited 2020-11-03). 23 For commercial confidentiality reasons the exact payload and frequency of each transport are not displayed here. 41 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

2. A calculation, based on the assumption that all the road transport journeys from step 1 were accomplished using only 40 ton trucks with 26 ton active load (Euro IV) and an estimated emissions rate of 0.275 kg CO2-equivalents/ton-km as a reference point, found that the studied road transport journeys would result in 9.6 tons of tail-pipe CO2 emissions per week. 3. The ETM used data for 2020 and studied various alternative vehicle mixes to meet the transport demand from step 1. The emissions were calculated for each new alternative vehicle mix and compared to the emissions from step 2 above. The ETM model then estimated a best case of 7.8 tons of tail-pipe CO2 emissions per week. This means that for the starting point in 2020 it was found that going from no optimization (using only 40 ton trucks with 26 ton active load) to an optimized scenario (using a mix of trucks to meet the demand for each individual trip), could reduce the emissions by about 20%.

Discussion

The aim of part 2b of this study was to understand current road-based freight flow patterns around Volvo Cars Body Components (VCBC) Olofström and to estimate how much logistics optimization could reduce their tail pipe CO2 emissions.

Emission factors for different vehicle concepts, traffic and driving conditions were retrieved from a simulation tool based on the Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport24 (HBEFA, 2020). Then a new Environmental Transport Model (ETM) was developed based on previous solutions to a classic logistical optimization challenge called “The Transportation Problem” (TPM)25. The ETM modelled how ´various combinations of vehicles could deliver the desired transport demand for VCBC while minimising the total tailpipe CO2 emissions.

For the starting point in 2020, under the assumed traffic conditions (rural) and with the identifed emission concepts, it was found that going from no optimization (using only 40 ton trucks with 26 ton active load) to an optimized scenario (using a mix of trucks to meet the demand for each individual trip), could reduce the emissions by about 20%.

The results of this study rely on several assumptions especially because the vehicle concepts in the simulator are based on a general distribution of the Swedish vehicle fleet and not on the particular vehicles employed by VCBC. The ETM itself is limited in the use of tailpipe CO2 emissions as the only criteria to select vehicle concepts and int that it assumes that vehicles are fully loaded. In practice, these assumptions will not be entirely true as there may be a limitation in vehicle choices and not all vehicles will be fully loaded. Moreover, the emission estimates would have been different if ‘well-to-wheel’ emissions or life-cycle emissions would have been studied. Yet, the validity of the selected optimization approach is supported by a similar recent study that simulates the decision-making process to select vehicles and allocating them on freight delivery routes to minimize total cost of ownership and Green House Gas emissions26.

In all, in spite of the mentioned built-in weaknesses, the study seems to have shown without doubt that there is a significant tailpipe CO2 emissions reduction potential from optimization of the vehicle fleet composition.

24 HBEFA, 2020., https://www.hbefa.net/e/index.html (last visited 2020-11-03). 25 Hitchcock, F. L. (1941). The distribution of a product from several sources to numerous localities. Journal of mathematics and physics, 20(1-4), 224-230. 26 de la Peña, A. G., Davendralingam, N., Raz, A. K., DeLaurentis, D., Shaver, G., Sujan, V., & Jain, N. (2020). Projecting adoption of truck powertrain technologies and CO2 emissions in line-haul networks. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 84, 102354. 42 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

HBEFA configuration for the simulation scenarios

43 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

HBEFA sample output from simulated scenario that is used in the optimization

Subsegment Technology EFA EFA_0% EFA_100% RT petrol petrol (4S) 517 495 568 RT <=7.5t Euro-IV EGR diesel 391 375 431 RT <=7.5t Euro-IV SCR diesel 387 371 427 RT <=7.5t Euro-V EGR diesel 376 360 413 RT <=7.5t Euro-V SCR diesel 368 353 405 RT <=7.5t Euro-VI diesel 356 340 390 RT >7,5-12t Euro-IV EGR diesel 444 420 506 RT >7,5-12t Euro-IV SCR diesel 440 416 501 RT >7,5-12t Euro-V EGR diesel 425 400 483 RT >7,5-12t Euro-V SCR diesel 416 393 474 RT >7,5-12t Euro-VI diesel 400 376 455 RT >12-14t Euro-IV EGR diesel 485 445 556 RT >12-14t Euro-IV SCR diesel 480 440 550 RT >12-14t Euro-V EGR diesel 466 427 532 RT >12-14t Euro-V SCR diesel 457 419 521 RT >12-14t Euro-VI diesel 443 404 504 RT >14-20t Euro-IV EGR diesel 538 487 635 RT >14-20t Euro-IV SCR diesel 533 482 628 RT >14-20t Euro-V EGR diesel 522 469 607 RT >14-20t Euro-V SCR diesel 512 460 594 RT >14-20t Euro-VI diesel 498 441 569 RT >20-26t Euro-IV EGR diesel 634 561 790 RT >20-26t Euro-IV SCR diesel 627 556 781 RT >20-26t Euro-V EGR diesel 610 540 756 RT >20-26t Euro-V SCR diesel 598 529 741 RT >20-26t Euro-VI diesel 573 502 712 RT >26-28t Euro-IV EGR diesel 701 621 874 RT >26-28t Euro-IV SCR diesel 694 615 866 RT >26-28t Euro-V EGR diesel 673 595 840 RT >26-28t Euro-V SCR diesel 660 583 824 RT >26-28t Euro-VI diesel 631 554 787 RT >28-32t Euro-IV EGR diesel 772 654 975 RT >28-32t Euro-IV SCR diesel 764 648 965 RT >28-32t Euro-V EGR diesel 746 630 937 RT >28-32t Euro-V SCR diesel 731 618 919 RT >28-32t Euro-VI diesel 699 581 877 RT >32t Euro-IV EGR diesel 798 674 1041 RT >32t Euro-IV SCR diesel 790 667 1032 RT >32t Euro-V EGR diesel 771 649 1001 RT >32t Euro-V SCR diesel 756 636 981 RT >32t Euro-VI diesel 722 597 936 TT/AT >34-40t Euro-IV EGR diesel 759 623 1019 TT/AT >34-40t Euro-IV SCR diesel 752 617 1008 TT/AT >34-40t Euro-V EGR diesel 735 598 983

44 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

TT/AT >34-40t Euro-V SCR diesel 720 587 963 TT/AT >34-40t Euro-VI diesel 696 554 920 TT/AT >40-50t Euro-IV EGR diesel 873 681 1171 TT/AT >40-50t Euro-IV SCR diesel 864 674 1158 TT/AT >40-50t Euro-V EGR diesel 845 653 1129 TT/AT >40-50t Euro-V SCR diesel 828 640 1106 TT/AT >40-50t Euro-VI diesel 801 606 1063 TT/AT >50-60t Euro-IV EGR diesel 1079 811 1476 TT/AT >50-60t Euro-IV SCR diesel 1067 803 1458 TT/AT >50-60t Euro-V EGR diesel 1049 778 1425 TT/AT >50-60t Euro-V SCR diesel 1028 763 1394 TT/AT >50-60t Euro-VI diesel 1009 721 1336 HGV CNG <=7,5t Euro-IV CNG 357 340 390 HGV CNG <=7,5t Euro-V CNG 359 340 390 HGV CNG <=7,5t Euro-VI CNG 347 325 374

45 A Fossil Free Southeast Link. A Desktop Pre-Study within the Roadmapper Project

Report Summary This report analyses and suggests the most sustainable pathways to fossil free freight traffic along the Southeast link (älmhult-Olofström and Olofström-Karlshamn’s Harbor). Transports to and from Volvo Cars in Olofström was used as a case to investigate how to achieve at least 40% climate- neutral transports by 2025 in a way that paves the way for fully fossil free and sustainable alternatives from 2030 onwards. The study investigated the issue in three main parts:

• Part 1. Modal Shifts. This freight analysis around the Southeast Link found that future freight flows are expected to be sufficient to justify a railroad link and that such a link would generate several wider societal sustainability benefits. • Part 2a. Fuel Shifts. A sustainability analysis of the starting point 2020 and potential fuel solutions for 2021, 2025 and 2030+ identified several promising fossil free alternatives with electrification as an expected long term winner. • Part 2b. Logistics Improvements. A quantitative simulation of how the freight vehicle fleet composition could reduce the tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions found that going from no optimization to maximum optimization could reduce the emissions by about 20%.

More detailed quantitative studies will however be needed to clarify how to achieve these improvements in practice. Based on the study it was recommended that:

• Transport-buying companies like Volvo Cars should when possible switch to electric vehicles in some form but could in the short term go to FAME, palm oil-free HVO or maybe biogas. • Carriers must be prepared for rapidly changing requirements from the transport-buyers and should therefore, where possible, use existing vehicles, possibly convert them and postpone larger vehicle purchases until it becomes clearer which alternatives will win in the long term. • Municipalities should reduce bottlenecks and enable cooperation between transport buyers and carriers, as this would encourage optimal use of vehicles and more sustainable transport. The current regional work on coordinated freight distribution is a good step in this direction. In the short term, Olofström could also focus on helping companies to go from truck to railway and Sölvesborgs could test biogas truck transports to Olofström. Later, battery and fuel cell trucks as well as electric roads could also be tested. Karlshamn, with its existing energy companies and biogas potential, could take the lead in infrastructure for alternative fuels.

About the Study and the Roadmapper Project The study was conducted in 2020 by the Sustaintrans team at Blekinge Institute of Technology as a pre-study within the Roadmapper project, an effort to accelerate regional transitions to sustainable transport. This particular pre-study was financed by the municipalities of Karlshamn, Olofström and Sölvesborg but it also benefits the larger Roadmapper project that is supported by a whole consortium of public and private organizations, led by the Swedish Energy Agency.

About the SustainTrans team at BTH The SustainTrans team is part of the Department of Strategic Sustainable Development at Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH). The team performs research in close cooperation with private and public societal stakeholders to identify pathways ofr accelerated transitions to fossil free and sustainable transport and energy systems.

ISSN: 1103-1581 ISRN BTH-RES-01/20-SE Urn:nbn:se:bth-21279