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Page 1 for Further Information, Contact Integrity UK On: Info@Integrityuk A B O U T I N T E G R I T Y U K Integrity UK is an organisation committed to preventing extremism through innovative approaches to promoting integration, cohesion and social reconciliation within the MENA region and the UK. S Y R I A I N T E L L I G E N C E R E P O R T 12th February 2020 Speaking at a party conference on Wednesday morning, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, issued some of his strongest comments towards Moscow and Damascus, once again warning the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to move behind the initially-agreed Sochi lines before the end of February and warning that any damage to the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) in the region would be met with severe retaliation. Erdoğan noted that he had discussed the situation with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and that he may meet with the United States' President, Donald Trump, to discuss the matter. Accusing the SAA and its Russian allies of murdering civilians, he also warned that Turkey would no longer be a spectator to the situation unfolding in Idlib and asserted that the TSK would “do what is necessary via land and air” and that the aircraft bombing Idlib would “no longer fly freely”. While Erdoğan’s threats represent a major escalation, they come short of a definite plan of action that was implied to be in the works on Tuesday. Nevertheless, it would appear that the TSK will ramp up its support for the Syrian Opposition factions in the region in the coming days and may engage against the SAA more directly. Furthermore, Ankara may look towards bolstering the anti-air capabilities of the Opposition factions, especially the Syrian National Army (SNA). Reports from Idlib also suggest that the TSK is establishing new posts around Idlib City in a bid to limit the SAA advances. In conjunction with these developments, the Turkish Minister of Defence, Hulusi Akar, met his US Counterpart, Mark Esper, as the two sides discussed more concrete mutual support over Idlib. The Kremlin, meanwhile, maintained its position that Ankara has failed to abide by its side of the Sochi Agreement about neutralising the terrorist factions in Idlib. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, warned that Russian facilities have been attacked by the terrorist factions and that the situation in Idlib remains intolerable. Peskov also rejected the accusations of civilians being targeted, noting that the SAA and Russian forces are targeting terrorists. Similarly, the Russian Ministry of Defence accused Turkish weapons shipments to Idlib of “complicating” the situation, and it minimised the risks of a refugee crisis, describing reports of displacement as “baseless”. Meanwhile, the Syrian Government's Foreign Ministry mocked Erdoğan's threats, describing them as disconnected from reality and accusing him of supporting terrorists. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria have continued. Overnight, the Idlib Province has witnessed no major developments, with the SAA securing its most recent gains, especially following the Opposition offensive around Nairab. The only development of note was reports of the SAA capturing the village of Arbukh, which is located near Taftanaz, where the TSK has a sizeable presence. In contrast, the western Aleppo countryside has witnessed numerous developments. Overnight, the SAA continued to secure the areas surrounding the M5 Highway, capturing the town of Khan al-Asal and the villages of Arada, Arnaz and Sheikh Ali, with heavy fighting on-going in Kafr Nouran and Baidar Yunis. These moves indicate that the SAA is advancing towards the town of Atarib as well as securing the Idlib-Aleppo Provincial Border. The capture of Atarib would allow the SAA to advance to the Bab al-Hawa Crossing with Turkey virtually uncontested. However, in a sign of the increasingly active role taken by the TSK in the region against the For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979 SAA, Wednesday saw new reports of Turkish artillery shelling the loyalist positions near Kafr Halab and of skirmishes near Miznaz. This may be the signal of the launch of a TSK-backed SNA counteroffensive. Even if not, the shelling will likely garner SAA retaliation, potentially resulting in more tit-for-tat exchanges. The repeated instances of tensions between the SAA, Russian Military Police (RMP) and the US-led International Coalition in northeast Syria reached their expected conclusion on Wednesday after clashes erupted between the Coalition forces and the SAA at an SAA checkpoint in the village of Khirbet Hamo just outside Qamishli City. The incident started when a US patrol attempted to pass through an SAA checkpoint in the area, which the SAA prevented. As the locals gathered, a man named Faisal Khaled Muhammad al- Barri, with disputed accounts on whether he was a civilian or a member of the National Defence Forces (NDF), started throwing rocks and attempted to pull down a US flag. A number of reporters also reported NDF fighters firing in the air in the direction of the US forces, with the Coalition patrol opening fire in turn. In the ensuing melee, Barri was killed and the Coalition forces began withdrawing from the village under the cover of the US Air Force which was reported to have struck at least one SAA position (with accounts of one to three airstrikes reported). An RMP patrol in the area intervened shortly after the incident started. The Coalition has since issued a statement, defending Barri's shooting on grounds of self-defence and noting that the situation has since been de-escalated. Notably, the exact sequence of events leading up to the incident and following it remain unclear, with many contradictory and inflated versions of the events being reported. By most indications, the clashes between the two sides were minimal and the airstrikes appear to have been conducted as a cover for Coalition withdrawal, with accounts of “dozens” of casualties among the SAA likely inaccurate. Nevertheless, the incident is highly significant and could lead to broader confrontations between the US and Russia. The Coalition statement has already blamed the pro- Government forces for the incident and Washington will likely put further pressure to have the SAA removed, especially amidst on-going contacts between Ankara and Washington over similar concerns in Idlib. For Moscow, the incident will likely be used to increase its presence in the region while justifying the removal of the US forces from the area. However, the incident may also prompt the two sides to formulate a de-escalation mechanism similar to those agreed to prevent incidents in the Syrian airspace. The Afrin Liberation Forces (HRE) have issued a statement on Wednesday, announcing the killing of an SNA fighter near Mare'a on Monday and two others in Afrin's Sherawa District on Tuesday. Furthermore, overnight, there were reports of an HRE or SAA raid against the SNA near the village of Hazwan, west of al-Bab. No details of casualties were reported and the TSK did not shell the Tal Rifaat region so far. The only reports of TSK shelling in northern Syria came from the village of Qiz Ali near Tal Abyad/Gire Spi in northern Raqqa. While the exact cause of the shelling is unclear, pro-Opposition outlets, citing the head of the Tal Abyad Local Council, Wael Hamdo, reported that the SNA has instituted a curfew in the Tal Abyad area, without specifying reasons or giving an end-date. Activists in Deir ez-Zour reported that a Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighter was killed by unidentified gunmen in the town of Basira. The town, one of the major towns in southeast Deir ez-Zour, has been witnessing regular attacks in recent weeks. In the village of Kuber, Deir ez-Zour, the SDF conducted a raid against a suspected Islamic State (IS) cell, arresting several people. Activists in Daraa reported that another attack has taken place, this time targeting a checkpoint of the Air Force Intelligence Directorate in Mushayrifah, eastern Daraa. The attack caused no casualties. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979 .
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