V16, N13 Monday, Nov. 1, 2010 Democrats brace for a wipeout GOP House challenger field expanding in Southern , 8th CD

By BRIAN A. HOWEY FRANKLIN - The specter of the “Wave” has been in our scope since last Spring and in the next 36 hours the answers will come in a likely dramatic !"#$\&'()*+,$-+.$!/00'1$2&34(.**)&3/0$ generic has Republicans with a 15-point lead, which would project out to a 77-seat 5.1'60)2/3$4/)3, Fox News has the GOP up 13 1.(2.37,$899$)*$/7$:;$1.(2.37,$5/*<'**.3$ 5.1&(7*$)*$/7$=$1.(2.37,$8>[email protected]$B&(C$ -)<.*D$9>8@E/00$?7(..7$F&'(3/0$/3G$#.A$ Research gives Republicans a 6 percent .G4.,$#&0)7)2&@>/770.4(&'3G*$)*$/7$H$1.( - 2.37, If the wave is in that 15 to 6 percent range - it was 4 percent favoring the Republicans in 1994 - we’re looking at a Democratic base collapse and wipe &'7$&I$7+.$J3G$/3G$=7+$8K*$I&($>/(&3$L)00$ HD76 Republican Wendy McNamara is now favored to win the open seat vacated by State Rep. Trent Van Haaften as Democrats brace for a GOP surge, particularly in Continued on page 3 Southern Indiana and in the 8th CD. Ground game time

By JACK COLWELL INDIANAPOLIS - Even as the air war still rages, the 4(&'3G$A/($0&&<*$0/(4.,$ Outside conservative groups, UYou blew it, President Obama. 7/(4.7)34$8&34(.**

Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 1, 2010

despite what viewers say, the national `'*7$7&**)34$<&3.M$/)<0.**0M,$-+.M$ /3/0M*7*$A+&$I&(.2/*7$L&'*.$(/2.$ are targeting races where they believe results have tended to downgrade _ 7+.M$2/3$'7$G&$G.3)/0*$/3G$.W.3$ &I$7+.$(/2., Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington detailed explanations counter the Walorski had been hit with negative impressions hammered home $729,651 in negative advertising by Jack E. Howey, editor in the air wars on TV? )3G.1.3G.37$4(&'1*$7+(&'4+$"27,$:S, Beverly K. Phillips, associate While Donnelly has raised a The difference in amounts editor little more than Walorski in their own 2&'0G$6.$7/C)34$/$7&00$&3$K&33.00M,$ campaign funding, outside liberal N$1&00$2&3G'27.G$I&($E?>-]-^$/3G$ groups have not poured money into EP?L]-^$)3$P3G)/3/1&0)*$*+&A.G$K&3 - Subscriptions congressional campaigns, in the 2nd 3.00M$*7)00$/+./GD$Q[$7&$QS$)3$1.(2.37 - RSH;$/33'/00M$L#P$E..C0M or elsewhere, as have the conserva- /4.*D$G&A3$I(&<$Q[$7&$S=$)3$/$1()&($ RHH;$/33'/00M$L#P$E..C0M$/3G$$$$$$$$$$$ 7)W.$4(&'1*, 1&00, L#P$K/)0M$E)(., Democrats complain that Polling, reports of big expendi- !8/00$S:T,UJT,UTQU the deluge on the conservative side, tures to trash Donnelly and continuing much through anonymous contribu- signs of a Republican tide no doubt tions, is the unfair result of a decision were all factors in FiveThirtyEight on Contact HPI 6M$5.1'60)2/3$/11&)37..*$&3$7+.$_,?,$ Thursday dropping Donnelly’s chances L&A.M$#&0)7)2*$P3G)/3/ ?'1(.<.$8&'(7, &I$A)33)34$7&$US,:$1.(2.37D$G&A3$ UJHH$9,$VW/3*7&3$NW., Tough, say Republicans, it’s I(&<$[J,=$1.(2.37$6/2C$&3$"27,$:,$-+.$ fair because outside groups interested percentage for Donnelly was back up P3G)/3/1&0)*D$P9$$QUJJ; )3$/$K.<&2(/7)2$L&'*.$2&'0G$+/W.$ 7&$UQ,H$&3$?'3G/M$/3G$0)C.0M$A)00$3&7$ www.howeypolitics.com launched coordinated TV attacks, too, change much, if at all, in that blog’s 6+&A.MJX4'*)3.**$"I[2.Z$S:T,UJT,UTQU /G*$&3$?&'7+$>.3G$/(./$2+/33.0*D$)3$ As the TV ads end, saddening order to reach the southern part of the station owners and delighting view- J;:;D$L&A.M$#&0)7)2*$P3G)/3/,$ 2nd District, where she is not as well ers, the ground war on Tuesday looms N00$()4+7*$(.*.(W.G,$#+&7&2&1M - C3&A3, 0/(4., ing, Internet forwarding, fax- If her campaigning had not The ground war is the ef- convinced the outside conservative fort to get out the vote, not voters in ing or reproducing in any form, groups that she can win, Walorski general but the voters supporting your whole or part, is a violation of would not have had their support and 2/3G)G/7.,$P7$A)00$)3W&0W.$[3/0$A..C.3G$ federal law without permission would not now be able to spend some door-to-door efforts in key neighbor- I(&<$7+.$1'60)*+.(,$ ! of her own funds for Indianapolis hoods, calls with reminders to vote 7.0.W)*)&3,$-+&*.$&'7*)G.$4(&'1*$/(.3R7$ /3G$.W.3$1(&W)G)34$()G.*$7&$7+.$1&00*, HOWEY Politics Indiana

Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday Nov. 1, 2010

$ N27'/00MD$7+.$4(&'3G$1(.1/(/7)&3*$*7/(7.G$0&34$/4&,$ .II&(7$)3$10/2.,$E/0&(*C)$A)00$3..G$)7$)I$*+.$)*$7&$2/72+$'1$ >.I&(.$M&'$2/3$0/'32+$/3$.II.27)W.$.II&(7$7&$4.7$*'11&(7.(*$ /3G$1(.W/)0$&3$V0.27)&3$K/M,$K&33.00M$A)00$3..G$)7$)I$+.$)*$ 7&$7+.$1&00*$M&'$<'*7$[(*7$)G.37)IM$7+.<, to overcome both the battering on TV and any Democratic $ >&7+$2/<1/)43*$+/W.$6..3$2/00)34$I&($<&37+*$7&$ “energy gap” and keep his lead in the polls at the polling )G.37)IM$A+&R*$&3$7+.)($*)G., 10/2.*,$ ! Each side says it has a superb get-out-the-vote

1.(2.17)&3$G.*1.(/7)&3, Battle for House, from page 1 Based on the overlapping Congressional /3G$F&.$K&33.00M$/3G$K.<&2(/7)2$L&'*.$2/3G)G/7.*$*&'7+$ generic polling, the late supplemental House money &I$_,?,$H;$/3G$A)7+)3$7+.$[7+$8KD$A+)2+$('3*$/*$I/($3&(7+$ activity (See pages 4 and 5), the history of wave /*$E/((.3$8&'37M,$-+)*$*2.3/()&$4()1*$3&7$&30M$7+.$I&'($ election years and the negative campaign tactics 7&**'1$*./7*$7+/7$)320'G.$?7/7.$5.1,$9/32M$b)2+/.0D$>&6$ Democrats have employed during the homestretch, >)*2+&II$/3G$!/)0$5).2C.3D$A)7+$E.3GM$b29//770.*$)3$^)32.33.*D$80MG.$ 62 seats if there is a base collapse and eight tossup c.(*.M$)3$-.((.$L/'7.$/*$A.00$/*$7A&$K.<&2(/7)2$0./G.(*$)3$ seats go to the GOP, particularly in Southern Indi- 5'**$?7)0A.00$/3G$K/0.$!('66, ana and the 8th CD. Republican sources began throwing late money at _,?,$?.3,$VW/3$>/M+$1(.G)27.G$+'4.$0&**.*$&3$ >/770.*$/3G$c.(*.M$/I7.($1&00)34$*+&A.G$5.1'60)2/3*$c.3$ b?9>8R*$b&(3)34$F&.$7+)*$<&(3)34,$OE.$2/3$*/W.$&'(*.0W.*$ >.2C.(/M+$*/)G,$ The way Indiana “We have to listen to what the Democrats have been acting 1'60)2$)*$*/M)34,$,,,$N*$1/)3I'0$/*$ /0*&$+)37*$/7$G.*1.(/7)&3,$ it will be for people I care about, Democrats sent out mailers [Tuesday] will be a wake-up targeting Republican vot- 2/00$/4/)3*7$6'*)3.**$/*$'*'/0,P$ .(*$2/00)34$J3G$/3G$=7+$8K$ >/M+$I&(.2/*7$K.<&2(/7*$2&'0G$ Libertarians Gregg Knott 0&*.$/*$/M+$ 2&3d'.($*2+.<., said Democrats have lost inde- $ P3$LKTJD$K.<& - pendents, especially in places cratic challenger Shane such as his home state, because Gibson denounced a mailing of a lack of focus on cutting the I(&<$7+.$L&'*.$K.<&2(/7)2$ G.[2)7, 2/'2'*$7+/7$*/M*$7+/7$?7/7.$5.1,$VG$80.(.$OW&7.G$7&$0.7$ Such an event appears to be bearing out on the *.f$&II.3G.(*$&'7$&I$`/)0$./(0M,P$!)6*&3$1&*7.G$7+)*$&3$+)*$ 0/7.*7$*'110.<.37/0$I'3G)34$/27)W)7).*,$>)4$6'<1*Z O/2.6&&C$1/4.$&W.($7+.$A..C.3GZ$OP$`'*7$*/A$3.4/7)W.$ "# R:U:D=QS$I&($F)<$>/)(G$)3$LKQQ$)3$+)*$2+/00.34.$ 0/37&3,$$L)*$7&7/0$*'110.<.37/0$)*$3&A$ 7&$7+.$W&7.(,$NI7.($*..)34$7+.*.$&6$>)*2+&II,$L)*$7&7/0$*'110.<.37/0$)*$RSS[D;TH, $ E+)0.$5.1'60)2/3$L&'*.$2/3G)G/7.*$C.17$7+.)($ "# L&'*.$5.1'60)2/3*$+/W.$6.4'3$<&W)34$<&3.M$ messages upbeat - though taking Democrats to task over /A/M$I(&<$/11/(.370M$*/I.$*./7*$7&$&6$L./7&3$2/<1/)43$)3$LKQU$4/W.$ HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday Nov. 1, 2010

RJ:DT[T$7&$7+.$>/)(G$2/< - 1/)43, $ L588R*$b)C.$!.37(MD$ speaking from Vincennes 7+)*$<&(3)34$)3$5.1,$>/770.*$ G)*7()27D$7&0G$L#P$7+/7$7+.M$/(.$ seeing “really good trends G.W.0&1)34P$)3$W&7.($PK$2/00*, “I don’t hang my hat on voter ID numbers, but we are getting very good re- *1&3*.*DP$!.37(M$*/)G,$OE.3GM$ b29/

K.<&2(/7)2$2/3G)G/7.*D$c0/(3.($*/)G,$ $ 5./0$80./($#&0)7)2*$0)*7*$7+.$[7+$/3G$ OP3$J;;UD$5.1'60)2/3$*7/7.$?.3 - 9th as “Leans” GOP and the 2nd as a ate seats were 5 percent greater in O-&**'1,P population on average than those “This is a devastating set of data +.0G$6M$K.<&2(/7*,$5.1'60)2/3$ for the incumbent party,” says GOP *7/7.$L&'*.$*./7*$A.(.$T,[$1.(2.37$ 1&00*7.($>)00$b2P37'(IID$A+&$2&3G'27.G$ greater in population on average 7+.$9>8@E?F$*'(W.M$A)7+$K.<&2(/7)2$ than those held by Democrats,” 1&00*7.($#.7.($K,$L/(7$*+&A)34$7+.$!"#$ c0/(3.($*/)G, A)7+$/$Q=]QS$1.(2.37$4.3.()2$.G4.,$OP7$ “If history holds, then this )*$/$(.6'C.$7&$7+.$0/*7$7A&$M./(*,P$"3$ is the prediction of a Republican V0.27)&3$K/MD$L/(7$/GG*D$O-+.$K.<& - wave of genuinely historical propor- crats are about to feel the force of hur- tions, possibly beyond the 1994 ()2/3.$A)3G*,P .0.27)&3DP$*/)G$8+/(0.*$O(/3C0)3D$/$ $ -+.$K.<&2(/7*R$[(.A/00$]$"(4/3)a - political scientist at the University of ing for America’s attempts to reconnect E)*2&3*)3]b/G)*&3$i_?N$-&G/Mh, 7&$7+.$SSSD;;;$[(*7$7)<.$"6/M$ exactly the same answer you get if Sunday, 21,125 absentee ballots had you plug the generic ballot average been cast, compared with 13,245 in the )37&$7+.$*)<10.$I&(<'0/,$"'($<&G.0$ J;;U$4.3.(/0$.0.27)&3,$ also thinks the spread of potential $ !/00'1R*$"27,$J[]S:$*'(W.M$&I$:DHS=$ &'72&<.*$)*$.f2.17)&3/00M$A)G.Z$)7*$ likely voters, which was conducted with =H$1.(2.37$2&3[G.32.$)37.(W/0$('3*$ USA Today, documented an increase from a 23-seat Republican gain to in the “enthusiasm gap” between the /3$[:]*./7$&3.,P 7A&$1/(7).*,$-+.$*'(W.M$I&'3G$7+/7$TH$ $ -+.$8&&C$#&0)7)2/0$5.1&(7$ percent of Republicans and indepen- (.1&(7*$)*$1(&`.27)34$/$H;$7&$U;$*./7$ dents who lean Republican are “abso- 5.1'60)2/3$_,?,$L&'*.$1)2C'1$/3G$ 0'7.0M$2.(7/)3P$7+.M$A)00$W&7.$)3$7+.$J;:;$ the Rothenberg Political Report puts <)G7.(<*D$2&<1/(.G$A)7+$U[$1.(2.37$&I$ )7$)3$7+.$HH$7&$UH$*./7$(/34., K.<&2(/7*, Silver projects Republican In recent years, the turnout gap j/((M$>'2+*&3$G.I./7)34$K.<&2(/7$ between the two parties has been 2 -(.37$^/3$L//I7.3$HS,U$7&$Q:,H$)3$7+.$[7+$8KD$A)7+$>'2 - &($S$1&)37*,$P3$:==QD$A+.3$5.1'60)2/3*$4/)3.G$HQ$L&'*.$ *+&3R*$2+/32.$&I$A)33)34$/7$=S,U$1.(2.37,$P3$7+.$=7+$8KD$ *./7*D$!/00'1R*$[3/0$1(.].0.27)&3$1&00$*+&A.G$/$UT$1.(2.37$ +.$)*$1(&`.27)34$5.1'60)2/3$-&GG$B&'34$7&$G.I./7$_,?,$5.1,$ 7&$UJ$1.(2.37$O.37+'*)/*/(&3$L)00$H;,S$7&$QT,T$1.(2.37$/3G$/$UQ,S$1.(2.37$2+/32.$ $ $ -+.$L&'*.$!"#R*$HU]*./7$4/)3$)3$:=QU$ &I$B&'34$A)33)34,$-+)*$0./W.*$&30M$J$1.(2.37$I&($j)6.(7/()/3$ A/*$)7*$0/(4.*7$*)32.$E&(0G$E/($PP,$K.<&2(/7*$(.6&'3G.G$ Knott, which runs against recent trends that had Libertarian )3$:=Q[$A)7+$/$TH]*./7$L&'*.$4/)3D$A+)2+$A/*$7+.$0/(4.*7$ V()2$?2+/3*6.(4$A)33)34$Q$1.(2.37$&I$7+.$W&7.$)3$J;;U$/3G$ 1)2C]'1$6M$.)7+.($1/(7M$*)32.$7+.$9.A$K./0$A)3$)3$:=SJ, S,[$1.(2.37$)3$J;;[,$-+)*$)*$A+M$L)00$/3G$*7/7.$K.<&2(/7*$ $ P3$)7*$"27,$J[$0)*7)34$&I$2&<1.7)7)W.$L&'*.$(/2.*D$ are employing the “divide and conquer” tactic in the 9th 7+.$8&&C$#&0)7)2/0$5.1&(7$*+&A.G$7+/7$Q=$K.<&2(/7)2]+.0G$ 8K, seats were toss-ups, 25 were a “lean” or “likely” tilt to Re- $ P3$7+.$J3G$8KD$?)0W.($1(&`.27*$/$H;,S$7&$QT,Q$ 1'60)2/3*D$/3G$/3&7+.($JH$*./7*$A.(.$/$K.<&2(/7)2$O0./3,P$ 1.(2.37$W)27&(M$I&($_,?,$5.1,$F&.$K&33.00M$&W.($5.1'60)2/3$ 8&&C$0)*7.G$7+(..$5.1'60)2/3]+.0G$*./7*$/*$0)C.0M$7&$2+/34.$ F/2C).$E/0&(*C),$L.$4)W.*$K&33.00M$/$UT,:$1.(2.37$2+/32.$&I$ +/3G*,$PI$1/*7$1(/27)2.*$+&0GN(.)3I&(2.G$6M$7+.$!/00'1$ A)33)34,$80./(0MD$/00$.M.*$A)00$6.$&3$K&33.00M$/*$7+.$20/* - 7)G.N/7$0./*7$7A&]7+)(G*$&I$7+.$7&**]'1$*./7*$2&'0G$\)1$7&$ sic canary in the coalmine on a historic GOP gain, and to a the GOP, as would at least a handful of the “lean” Demo- 0.**.($.f7.37$L)00D$1/(7)2'0/(0M$*)32.$P3G)/3/R*$1&00*$/(.$7+.$ 2(/7)2$*./7*,$ ! [(*7$7&$20&*.$)3$7+.$3/7)&3,$ HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 1, 2010

Democrats Republicans 52 48 Republican Pickup HD46: (Open, Tincher) Bionca Gambill (D) vs. (R) HD73: (Open, Oxley) Ryan Bowers (D) vs. Steve Davisson (R) HD30: Rep. Ron Herrell (D) vs. Mike Karickhoff (R ) HD70: Rep. Paul Robertson (D) vs. Rhonda Rhoads (R) HD62: Rep. Sandra Blanton (D) v. Matt Ubelhor (R) HD76: Sen. Bob Deig (D) vs. Wendy McNamara (R)

Tossup HD42: Rep. (D) vs. HD43: Rep. (D) vs. Alan Morrison HD44 Rep. Nancy Michael (D) vs. Jim Baird (R) HD64: Rep. (D) vs. Ken Beckerman HD77: Rep. (D) vs. Cheryl Musgrave HD68: Rep. Bob Bischoff (D) vs. Jud McMillin (R) HD74: Rep. Russ Stilwell (D) vs. Susan Ellspermann HD75: (Open, Avery) Mike Goebel (D) vs. R. Bacon

Leans D HD17: Rep. (D) vs. Frances Elert HD19: Dan Klein (R) v. Rep. Shelli VanDenBurgh HD31: Rep. Joe Pearson (D) vs. Kevin Mahan (R HD37: Rep. (D) vs. Kyle Hupfer HD66: Rep. Terry Goodin (D) vs. Jim Lucas (R) HD89: Rep. John Barnes (D) vs. Cindy Kirchhofer

Leans R HD15: Timothy Downs (D) vs. Rep. Don Lehe (R) HD51: Cody Ross (D) vs. Rep. Dick Dodge (R) HD72: Shane Gibson (D) vs. Rep. Ed Clere (R) HD92: Brett Voorhies (D) vs. Rep. Phil Hinkle (R)

Likely D HD27: Rep. (D) vs. Don Brown (R) HD36: State Rep. (D) vs. Kim Builta HD86: Rep. Ed DeLaney (D) vs. Kurt Webber HD97: Rep. (D) vs. Wes Robinson

Likely R HD4: Thomas Webber vs. State Rep. Ed Soliday HD26: Paul Roales (D) vs. Rep. (R) HD21: (Open, Walorski) Dwight Fish vs. Tim Wesco HD24: State Rep. Rich McClain vs. Tim Banter (D)

Safe Democrats: Fry, Lawson, Harris, C. Brown, Bauer, Cheatham, Niezgodski, Dvorak, Pelath, Stevenson, !"#$%&'()*&+,-()./)01,23()4#$%&'()567"$()8&-"7"6()9];1()9,"$<"()="7<3()02"17"$()>,#?;,'2#()8&-"-()9$6&$() Bartlett, Porter, Crawford, Summers, Day. Republicans: Open-Borror (Morris), Open-Bell (Heuer), Open-Ruppel (Kubacki), Open-Clements (Van Nat- ter), Open-Duncan (Frye), Open-Murphy (Speedy), Yarde, Dermody, Messmer, Neese, Gutwein, Wolkins, Friend, J. Thompson, Richardson, Turner, Davis, Lutz, Torr, Steuerwald, T. Brown, Borders, Foley, Culver, Leonard, Cherry, Saunders, Knollman, Eberhart, Burton, M.Smith, Koch, Crouch, Lehman, Espich, Pond, Noe, Bosma, Behning, Frizzell. ! HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday Nov. 1, 2010

!"##$%&'()*%a)",- 345%,166.-27"867% E.$4/W.$M&'$7+.$7A&$M./(*$7&$I'0[00$ your promise of making sure that our ./01/"*)%,2")*, 9'76),')%:"6,% economy starts roaring back to life /4/)3,P PAOLI - Acknowledging there’s -V55V$LN_-V$]$-+.&G&(.$8,$ little left to do Sorensen, the studious, star-struck to sway voters, /)G.$7&$#(.*)G.37$F&+3$O,$c.33.GM$ ;'),'#":/8"')%>'86 K.<&2(/7)2$5.1,$ whose crisp, poetic turns of phrase >/(&3$L)00$/3G$ helped idealize and immortalize a ,68%?'7%@ABC his 9th District tragically brief administration, died EVANSVILLE - Vanderburgh Republican ?'3G/M,$L.$A/*$[J,$ L.$G).G$/7$ 8&'37M$W&7.(*$/11(&W.$/$2&3*&0)G/7.G$ challenger, Todd 3&&3$/7$b/3+/77/3R*$9.A$B&(C$#(.* - 2)7M]2&'37M$4&W.(3<.37$)3$J;:JD$7+.M$ B&'34D$3&3. - 6M7.()/3$L&*1)7/0@E.)00$8&(3.00$b.G)2/0$ could wait another two years to elect theless hit the campaign trail Sunday 8.37.($I(&<$2&<10)2/7)&3*$&I$/$*7(&C.D$ )7*$[(*7$0&&<)347&3D$9/*+W)00.D$8&0'<6'*$/3G$ 7&$0./(3$&I$?&(.3*.3R*$G./7+,$OP$C3&A$ 8&<6)3.G$!&W.(3<.37,P$-+.$4&W.(3 - F.II.(*&3W)00.,$N7$#/&0)D$L)00$(/00).G$.f - his legacy will live on in the words he ment would be informally known as cited volunteers who have made thou- wrote, the causes he advanced, and 7+.$2)7M$&I$VW/3*W)00.,$O-+.$1()0&&<)347&3D$ 1(.*)G.37$>)00$80)37&3D$*7)00$/$1&1'0/($ D"E6:%6.')'0". B&'34$*1.37$7+.$/I7.(3&&3$4&)34$G&&($ and energetic campaigner, stumped I&($K.<&2(/7*$?'3G/M$)3$b/)3.D$8&3 - 1".8(76%6067*6, 7&$G&&($A)7+$+)*$I().3G$>(/G$E)*0.(D$7+.$ $ EN?LP9!-"9$]$N$<)f.G$ &30M$5.1'60)2/3$2)7M$&I[2.+&0G.($7+.(.,$ 3.27)2'7D$9.A$L/<1*+)(.$/3G$5+&G.$ P*0/3G,$OPR<$10./G)34$A)7+$M&'DP$80)37&3$ picture of the economy emerged one The pair focused on homes where day before key midterm elections that the occupants were expected to vote 7&0G$/3$/'G).32.$)3$9/*+'/D$9,L,D$ O4)W.$F&+3$jM32+$/$