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Democrats Republicans 52 48 Republican Pickup HD46: (Open, Tincher) Bionca Gambill (D) Vs

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Democrats Republicans 52 48 Republican Pickup HD46: (Open, Tincher) Bionca Gambill (D) Vs V16, N13 Monday, Nov. 1, 2010 Democrats brace for a wipeout GOP House challenger field expanding in Southern Indiana, 8th CD By BRIAN A. HOWEY FRANKLIN - The specter of the “Wave” has been in our scope since last Spring and in the next 36 hours the answers will come in a likely dramatic !"#$\&'()*+,$-+.$!/00'1$2&34(.**)&3/0$ generic has Republicans with a 15-point lead, which would project out to a 77-seat 5.1'60)2/3$4/)3, Fox News has the GOP up 13 1.(2.37,$899$)*$/7$:;$1.(2.37,$5/*<'**.3$ 5.1&(7*$)*$/7$=$1.(2.37,$8>[email protected]$B&(C$ -)<.*D$9>8@E/00$?7(..7$F&'(3/0$/3G$#.A$ Research gives Republicans a 6 percent .G4.,$#&0)7)2&@>/770.4(&'3G*$)*$/7$H$1.( - 2.37, If the wave is in that 15 to 6 percent range - it was 4 percent favoring the Republicans in 1994 - we’re looking at a Democratic base collapse and wipe &'7$&I$7+.$J3G$/3G$=7+$8K*$I&($>/(&3$L)00$ HD76 Republican Wendy McNamara is now favored to win the open seat vacated by State Rep. Trent Van Haaften as Democrats brace for a GOP surge, particularly in Continued on page 3 Southern Indiana and in the 8th CD. Ground game time By JACK COLWELL INDIANAPOLIS - Even as the air war still rages, the 4(&'3G$A/($0&&<*$0/(4.,$ Outside conservative groups, UYou blew it, President Obama. 7/(4.7)34$8&34(.**</3$F&.$K&33.00M$ with well over a million dollars already !"#$%&"#'()#*+(#'"%,-#*(#.)/a//# spent, continue their TV attacks on the Democratic incumbent in Indiana’s 2nd your promise of making sure K)*7()27,$$N<.()2/3$8(&**(&/G*$!#?D$)3 - that our economy starts roaring spired by Karl Rove, is the latest with a big TV buy seeking to convince voters back to life again. V that Donnelly really is Nancy Pelosi in - Sarah Palin G)*4')*., Knowing that negative TV works, HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 1, 2010 despite what viewers say, the national `'*7$7&**)34$<&3.M$/)<0.**0M,$-+.M$ /3/0M*7*$A+&$I&(.2/*7$L&'*.$(/2.$ are targeting races where they believe results have tended to downgrade _ 7+.M$2/3$</C.$/$G)II.(.32., but certainly not write off _ Donnelly’s $ -+.$8(&**(&/G*$4(&'1$A/*$ 2+/32.*$I&($(.].0.27)&3, reported last week to be spending $3 Meanwhile, Donnelly and the <)00)&3$)3$7+.$[3/0$G/M*$&3$/$G&a.3$C.M$ K.<&2(/7)2$8&34(.**)&3/0$8/<1/)43$ L&'*.$(/2.*$]$&3.$&I$7+.<$7+.$J3G,$$$$$$ 8&<<)77..$'*.$7+.)($-^$*1&7*$7&$2/*7$ The highly acclaimed New Howey Politics 5.1'60)2/3$2+/00.34.($F/2C).$E/0&( - B&(C$-)<.*$1&0)7)2/0$60&4$O)W.-+)( - Indiana ski in a negative light, particularly on tyEight, which keeps track of cam- is a non-partisan newsletter whether she favors a risky privatiza- paign funding and polling and projects based in Indianapolis and 7)&3$&I$?&2)/0$?.2'()7M, election chances in all the congres- published on the campus of Walorski says she doesn’t sional races, reports that independent A/37$7&$G.*7(&M$?&2)/0$?.2'()7M, 4(&'1*$+/G$*1.37$R:DQ[SD;SH$7&$/77/2C$ O(/3C0)3$8&00.4.,$P7$A/*$I&'3G.G$ Donnelly says he doesn’t K&33.00M$/*$&I$"27,$:S,$L.$0)C.0M$A)00$ )3$:==Q$)3$O&(7$E/M3., </(2+$7&$&(G.(*$&I$L&'*.$?1./C.($ be hit with $2 million in independent #.0&*), group negative advertising by the end Brian A. Howey, Publisher $ >'7$G&$G.3)/0*$/3G$.W.3$ &I$7+.$(/2., Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington detailed explanations counter the Walorski had been hit with negative impressions hammered home $729,651 in negative advertising by Jack E. Howey, editor in the air wars on TV? )3G.1.3G.37$4(&'1*$7+(&'4+$"27,$:S, Beverly K. Phillips, associate While Donnelly has raised a The difference in amounts editor little more than Walorski in their own 2&'0G$6.$7/C)34$/$7&00$&3$K&33.00M,$ campaign funding, outside liberal N$1&00$2&3G'27.G$I&($E?>-]-^$/3G$ groups have not poured money into EP?L]-^$)3$P3G)/3/1&0)*$*+&A.G$K&3 - Subscriptions congressional campaigns, in the 2nd 3.00M$*7)00$/+./GD$Q[$7&$QS$)3$1.(2.37 - RSH;$/33'/00M$L#P$E..C0M or elsewhere, as have the conserva- /4.*D$G&A3$I(&<$Q[$7&$S=$)3$/$1()&($ RHH;$/33'/00M$L#P$E..C0M$/3G$$$$$$$$$$$ 7)W.$4(&'1*, 1&00, L#P$K/)0M$E)(., Democrats complain that Polling, reports of big expendi- !8/00$S:T,UJT,UTQU the deluge on the conservative side, tures to trash Donnelly and continuing much through anonymous contribu- signs of a Republican tide no doubt tions, is the unfair result of a decision were all factors in FiveThirtyEight on Contact HPI 6M$5.1'60)2/3$/11&)37..*$&3$7+.$_,?,$ Thursday dropping Donnelly’s chances L&A.M$#&0)7)2*$P3G)/3/ ?'1(.<.$8&'(7, &I$A)33)34$7&$US,:$1.(2.37D$G&A3$ UJHH$9,$VW/3*7&3$NW., Tough, say Republicans, it’s I(&<$[J,=$1.(2.37$6/2C$&3$"27,$:,$-+.$ fair because outside groups interested percentage for Donnelly was back up P3G)/3/1&0)*D$P9$$QUJJ; )3$/$K.<&2(/7)2$L&'*.$2&'0G$+/W.$ 7&$UQ,H$&3$?'3G/M$/3G$0)C.0M$A)00$3&7$ www.howeypolitics.com launched coordinated TV attacks, too, change much, if at all, in that blog’s 6+&A.MJX4</)0,2&< 6'7$G)G3R7, .*7)</7.$/*$W&7.(*$4&$7&$7+.$1&00*, !L&A.MR*$2.00Z$S:T,H;U,;[[S !"#$%&#["()#*$(+&* of the air In other words, he’s still ahead !E/*+)347&3Z$T;S,JQ[,;=;= wars, Walorski has bought Indianapo- but not by as much as just a few ! lis TV time, much more expensive than A..C*$./(0).(, >'*)3.**$"I[2.Z$S:T,UJT,UTQU /G*$&3$?&'7+$>.3G$/(./$2+/33.0*D$)3$ As the TV ads end, saddening order to reach the southern part of the station owners and delighting view- J;:;D$L&A.M$#&0)7)2*$P3G)/3/,$ 2nd District, where she is not as well ers, the ground war on Tuesday looms N00$()4+7*$(.*.(W.G,$#+&7&2&1M - C3&A3, 0/(4., ing, Internet forwarding, fax- If her campaigning had not The ground war is the ef- convinced the outside conservative fort to get out the vote, not voters in ing or reproducing in any form, groups that she can win, Walorski general but the voters supporting your whole or part, is a violation of would not have had their support and 2/3G)G/7.,$P7$A)00$)3W&0W.$[3/0$A..C.3G$ federal law without permission would not now be able to spend some door-to-door efforts in key neighbor- I(&<$7+.$1'60)*+.(,$ ! of her own funds for Indianapolis hoods, calls with reminders to vote 7.0.W)*)&3,$-+&*.$&'7*)G.$4(&'1*$/(.3R7$ /3G$.W.3$1(&W)G)34$()G.*$7&$7+.$1&00*, HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday Nov. 1, 2010 $ N27'/00MD$7+.$4(&'3G$1(.1/(/7)&3*$*7/(7.G$0&34$/4&,$ .II&(7$)3$10/2.,$E/0&(*C)$A)00$3..G$)7$)I$*+.$)*$7&$2/72+$'1$ >.I&(.$M&'$2/3$0/'32+$/3$.II.27)W.$.II&(7$7&$4.7$*'11&(7.(*$ /3G$1(.W/)0$&3$V0.27)&3$K/M,$K&33.00M$A)00$3..G$)7$)I$+.$)*$ 7&$7+.$1&00*$M&'$<'*7$[(*7$)G.37)IM$7+.<, to overcome both the battering on TV and any Democratic $ >&7+$2/<1/)43*$+/W.$6..3$2/00)34$I&($<&37+*$7&$ “energy gap” and keep his lead in the polls at the polling )G.37)IM$A+&R*$&3$7+.)($*)G., 10/2.*,$ ! Each side says it has a superb get-out-the-vote 1.(2.17)&3$G.*1.(/7)&3, Battle for House, from page 1 Based on the overlapping Congressional /3G$F&.$K&33.00M$/3G$K.<&2(/7)2$L&'*.$2/3G)G/7.*$*&'7+$ generic polling, the late supplemental House money &I$_,?,$H;$/3G$A)7+)3$7+.$[7+$8KD$A+)2+$('3*$/*$I/($3&(7+$ activity (See pages 4 and 5), the history of wave /*$E/((.3$8&'37M,$-+)*$*2.3/()&$4()1*$3&7$&30M$7+.$I&'($ election years and the negative campaign tactics 7&**'1$*./7*$7+/7$)320'G.$?7/7.$5.1,$9/32M$b)2+/.0D$>&6$ Democrats have employed during the homestretch, >)*2+&II$/3G$!/)0$5).2C.3D$A)7+$E.3GM$b29/</(/$/11/( - HPI is projecting at least a six-seat GOP pickup - .370M$*'(4)34$)3$7+.$&1.3$LKTU$$]$6'7$1&**)60.$0/7.$7/(4.7.G$ translating to 54 seats with the potential for up to *./7*$)3W&0W)34$?7/7.$5.1*,$c(.4$>/770.*$)3$^)32.33.*D$80MG.$ 62 seats if there is a base collapse and eight tossup c.(*.M$)3$-.((.$L/'7.$/*$A.00$/*$7A&$K.<&2(/7)2$0./G.(*$)3$ seats go to the GOP, particularly in Southern Indi- 5'**$?7)0A.00$/3G$K/0.$!('66, ana and the 8th CD.
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