2020 Election Toolbox
A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections
July 28, 2020 Producer National Journal Presentation Center Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Gubernatorial elections Keys to the 2020 presidential election
President Trump’s handling of COVID-19 • Trump planned to campaign on a booming economy, but the pandemic has led to record unemployment • The Biden campaign will devote a lot of money on ads accusing President Trump of inaction
Shifting demographics in key states • The GOP electorate is consistently older and white, while the general population becomes more diverse • The growing Hispanic population in key swing states Arizona and Florida could determine the election • While still unlikely, Democrats are becoming more competitive in Texas, which has 38 electoral votes
Suburban districts • Trump’s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration • Democrats’ performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms
Campaigning in a pandemic • The pandemic has prevented Trump and Biden from holding large campaign rallies and fundraisers • Biden has kept a low profile during the pandemic, which has kept the light on Trump and his performance • Get out the vote (GOTV) campaigns have been put on hold, while Democrats push hard for voters to vote by mail-in
Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post.
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 3 Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states
PA WI NC GA Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 15 16 2016 election outcome MN MI FL AZ 10 16 29 11
PA WI GA Clinton EC votes, 222 FL Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 29 16 2018 Senate race outcomes in swing states MN MI AZ NC* 10 16 11 15
PA WI NC GA Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 15 16 2% shift towards Clinton in swing states MN MI FL AZ 10 16 29 11
PA WI NC GA Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 15 16 4% shift towards Clinton in swing states MN MI FL AZ 10 16 29 11
*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018 270 Electoral College votes needed to win Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019 4 How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid? Recession in 2 Year years before President Reelection? election? 1912 YES Taft NO presidents since 1912 1916 NO Wilson YES 6 have faced a recession 1924 YES Coolidge YES within 2 years before their 1932 YES Hoover NO reelection bid 1936 NO FDR YES 1940 NO FDR YES 5 of those 6 1944 NO FDR YES presidents lost reelection 1948 NO Truman YES 1956 NO Eisenhower YES 1964 NO Johnson YES 1972 NO Nixon YES 1976 YES Ford NO 1980 YES Carter NO 1984 NO Reagan YES 1992 YES H.W. Bush NO 1996 NO Clinton YES 2004 NO W. Bush YES 2012 NO Obama YES
Sources: Mehlman Castagnetti
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: March 17, 2020 5 President Trump has spent over $237 million during his presidential campaign
Financial summary at the end of June 2020 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements ■ Ending cash on hand
$343
$279
$237
$170
$113 $109
Trump Biden
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020 6 Biden’s campaign has raised more money each month in 2020, but continues to trail in cash on hand
Principal campaign committee fundraising by month MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Trump Receipts Biden Receipts Trump Cash on Hand Biden Cash on Hand
$120 $113 $108 $108
$98 $109 $100 $93 $94
$82 $80
$63 $57 $60 $55
$47 $44 $40 $37
$26 $25 $18 $20 $17 $7 $14 $14 $9 $6 $12
$0 January February March April May June
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020 7 Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending
Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and July 18, 2020
■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending Donald Trump Joe Biden Facebook likes: 28.5 million Facebook likes: 2.2 million Twitter followers: 84.2 million Twitter followers: 7.4 million Instagram followers: 20.1 million Instagram followers: 2.8 million
37.2M Targeted Facebook spending by demographic ■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown
Biden 62.8% 36.1%
Trump 50.5% 48.8%
16M ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+ 61.9M
Biden 31.3% 39.1% 24.0% 26.5M
Trump 22.9% 45.2% 27.1%
Donald Trump Joe Biden
Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive.
Michelle Schrier | Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020 8 A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a lead over President Trump
Head-to-head general election polls
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS ■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one
Fox News (July 12-15, 2020) 41 49 4 5 1
Monmouth University (June 26-June 30, 41 53 4 2 2020)
ABC/Washington Post (July 12-15, 2020) 40 55 4 1 1
NBC/WSJ (July 9-12, 2020) 40 51 7 2
Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University.
Slide last updated on: July 21, 2020 9 Average of head-to-head general election polls
REALCLEARPOLITICS, AS OF JULY 28, 2020 ■ Trump ■ Biden
45.0 49.0
Arizona
42.7 50.5
Florida
41.2 49.6
Michigan
45.0 48.0
North Carolina
42.8 50.2
Pennsylvania
41.8 48.2
Wisconsin
Sources: RealClearPolitics.
Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020 10 Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Gubernatorial elections Keys to the 2020 congressional races
Keys to the Senate • To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency for power in a tie-break • Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans • Four of the Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina) Multiple competitive races in one state has compounding effect • In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both elections • In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive Senate Republicans mostly on defense for 2020 • The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election • Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate • Senate Republicans and their allied PAC have reserved $94 million of air time for June 1st through election day on behalf of seven incumbents
Keys to the House • To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats • Out of the 22 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while six belong to incumbent Republicans • Out of the 88 seats rated as competitive, 50 belong to Democrats and 33 belong to Republicans Democrats’ strong position in the House • Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not seeking reelection as Democrats (10) • Only one of these seats (Rep. Dave Loebsack (IA-2) is at risk of flipping from D to R • Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans
Sources:
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 12 Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate ■ Democratic senator Trump victory Gary Peters (D) won in ■ Republican senator Clinton victory 2014 by 13.3% WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY* MI Susan Collins (R) won in IA PA 2014 by 37.0% NE NV OH UT IL IN CA CO WV Cory Gardner (R) KS* MO VA won in 2014 by 1.9% KY TN* NC AZ OK NM* AR SC MS AL GA Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 TX AK LA special election by 1.5%
FL HI *Senators not seeking reelection in 2020
Democrats (12) Republicans (23)
Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)
Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)
Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD) Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 13 Hotline: Only two Democratic Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip
1. Alabama: 7 5 • Incumbent: Doug Jones (D) • Challengers: Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R), former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) 9 2. Colorado: 6 • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R) 2 • Challengers: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), former 10 State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), 4 3. Arizona: 3 • Incumbent: Martha McSally (R) • Challengers: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) 1 8 4. North Carolina: • Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R) • Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) 5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) 6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R) • Challengers: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), 7. Montana — Steve Daines (R) former gov. candidate Betsy Sweet, attorney Bre Kidman 8. Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R) Georgia — David Perdue (R) 9. Michigan — Gary Peters (D) 10. Kansas — Open seat (R) *List of challengers is not exhaustive Sources: National Journal
Slide last updated on: May 19, 2020 14 Hotline: Fourteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20 most likely to flip party control Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)* 2. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)* 3. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) 4. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D) 5. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) 6. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)* 7. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)* 8. IN-5: Rep. Susan Brooks (R)* 9. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) 10. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) 11. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D) 12. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) 13. NY-2: Rep. Peter King (R)* 14. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R) 15. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D) 16. NE-2: Rep. Don Bacon (R) 17. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) 18. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 19. NY-24: Rep. John Katko (R) 20. CA-25: Rep. Mike Garcia (R)
* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020 Sources: National Journal
Slide last updated on: July 27, 2020 15 The national GOP committees have raised about $183 million more than their Democratic counterparts so far
Total receipts by national party PACs AS OF JUNE 30, 2020
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
RNC $409,733,895
DCCC $207,780,191
DNC $187,333,958
NRCC $160,059,646
NRSC $133,609,960
DSCC $125,144,638
Total Dem $520,258,787
Total GOP $703,403,502
Sources: FEC
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020 16 Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Gubernatorial elections Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races
Few possibilities for party flips • Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26 • In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for election • However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D)) • Montana’s seat is open because incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited
High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents • State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of governors and more exposure to the public • In multiple public polls, most governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their handling of the coronavirus
Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices • Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor seat in a state • Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his election although it was a slimmer margin • Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial elections despite Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in presidential elections since 1992 • This indicates that voters may be willing to split the ticket for gubernatorial elections
North Carolina is home to many competitive races in 2020 • In addition to having a gubernatorial race rated as Lean D by The Cook Political Report, North Carolina also has a competitive Senate race, is considered a presidential swing state, and has three competitive House races in 2020 • An influx of spending, ads, and efforts from campaigns and outside groups will work to raise voter registration, turnout, and support for their respective sides in 2020
Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia,
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 18 There are only two open seats up for election in 2020
2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1) ■ GOP incumbent (6) ■ GOP open* (1)
WA ME MT ND VT
OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA MD TX AK LA DC
FL HI
*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019
Slide last updated on: Dec. 13, 2019 19