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2020 Election Toolbox

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2020 Election Toolbox 2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections July 28, 2020 Producer National Journal Presentation Center Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections Keys to the 2020 presidential election President Trump’s handling of COVID-19 • Trump planned to campaign on a booming economy, but the pandemic has led to record unemployment • The Biden campaign will devote a lot of money on ads accusing President Trump of inaction Shifting demographics in key states • The GOP electorate is consistently older and white, while the general population becomes more diverse • The growing Hispanic population in key swing states Arizona and Florida could determine the election • While still unlikely, Democrats are becoming more competitive in Texas, which has 38 electoral votes Suburban districts • Trump’s support in suburban districts has decreased since his inauguration • Democrats’ performance in the suburbs was a key reason for their success in the 2018 midterms Campaigning in a pandemic • The pandemic has prevented Trump and Biden from holding large campaign rallies and fundraisers • Biden has kept a low profile during the pandemic, which has kept the light on Trump and his performance • Get out the vote (GOTV) campaigns have been put on hold, while Democrats push hard for voters to vote by mail-in Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post. Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 3 Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states PA WI NC GA Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 15 16 2016 election outcome MN MI FL AZ 10 16 29 11 PA WI GA Clinton EC votes, 222 FL Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 29 16 2018 Senate race outcomes in swing states MN MI AZ NC* 10 16 11 15 PA WI NC GA Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 15 16 2% shift towards Clinton in swing states MN MI FL AZ 10 16 29 11 PA WI NC GA Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189 20 10 15 16 4% shift towards Clinton in swing states MN MI FL AZ 10 16 29 11 *North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018 270 Electoral College votes needed to win Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019 4 How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid? Recession in 2 Year years before President Reelection? election? 1912 YES Taft NO presidents since 1912 1916 NO Wilson YES 6 have faced a recession 1924 YES Coolidge YES within 2 years before their 1932 YES Hoover NO reelection bid 1936 NO FDR YES 1940 NO FDR YES 5 of those 6 1944 NO FDR YES presidents lost reelection 1948 NO Truman YES 1956 NO Eisenhower YES 1964 NO Johnson YES 1972 NO Nixon YES 1976 YES Ford NO 1980 YES Carter NO 1984 NO Reagan YES 1992 YES H.W. Bush NO 1996 NO Clinton YES 2004 NO W. Bush YES 2012 NO Obama YES Sources: Mehlman Castagnetti Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: March 17, 2020 5 President Trump has spent over $237 million during his presidential campaign Financial summary at the end of June 2020 MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements ■ Ending cash on hand $343 $279 $237 $170 $113 $109 Trump Biden Sources: Federal Election Commission. Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020 6 Biden’s campaign has raised more money each month in 2020, but continues to trail in cash on hand Principal campaign committee fundraising by month MILLIONS OF DOLLARS Trump Receipts Biden Receipts Trump Cash on Hand Biden Cash on Hand $120 $113 $108 $108 $98 $109 $100 $93 $94 $82 $80 $63 $57 $60 $55 $47 $44 $40 $37 $26 $25 $18 $20 $17 $7 $14 $14 $9 $6 $12 $0 January February March April May June Sources: Federal Election Commission. Slide last updated on: July 24, 2020 7 Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and July 18, 2020 ■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending Donald Trump Joe Biden Facebook likes: 28.5 million Facebook likes: 2.2 million Twitter followers: 84.2 million Twitter followers: 7.4 million Instagram followers: 20.1 million Instagram followers: 2.8 million 37.2M Targeted Facebook spending by demographic ■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown Biden 62.8% 36.1% Trump 50.5% 48.8% 16M ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+ 61.9M Biden 31.3% 39.1% 24.0% 26.5M Trump 22.9% 45.2% 27.1% Donald Trump Joe Biden Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive. Michelle Schrier | Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020 8 A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a lead over President Trump Head-to-head general election polls AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS ■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one Fox News (July 12-15, 2020) 41 49 4 5 1 Monmouth University (June 26-June 30, 41 53 4 2 2020) ABC/Washington Post (July 12-15, 2020) 40 55 4 1 1 NBC/WSJ (July 9-12, 2020) 40 51 7 2 Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University. Slide last updated on: July 21, 2020 9 Average of head-to-head general election polls REALCLEARPOLITICS, AS OF JULY 28, 2020 ■ Trump ■ Biden 45.0 49.0 Arizona 42.7 50.5 Florida 41.2 49.6 Michigan 45.0 48.0 North Carolina 42.8 50.2 Pennsylvania 41.8 48.2 Wisconsin Sources: RealClearPolitics. Slide last updated on: July 28, 2020 10 Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections Keys to the 2020 congressional races Keys to the Senate • To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency for power in a tie-break • Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans • Four of the Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina) Multiple competitive races in one state has compounding effect • In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both elections • In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive Senate Republicans mostly on defense for 2020 • The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election • Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate • Senate Republicans and their allied PAC have reserved $94 million of air time for June 1st through election day on behalf of seven incumbents Keys to the House • To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats • Out of the 22 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while six belong to incumbent Republicans • Out of the 88 seats rated as competitive, 50 belong to Democrats and 33 belong to Republicans Democrats’ strong position in the House • Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not seeking reelection as Democrats (10) • Only one of these seats (Rep. Dave Loebsack (IA-2) is at risk of flipping from D to R • Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans Sources: Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 12 Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate ■ Democratic senator Trump victory Gary Peters (D) won in ■ Republican senator Clinton victory 2014 by 13.3% WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY* MI Susan Collins (R) won in IA PA 2014 by 37.0% NE NV OH UT IL IN CA CO WV Cory Gardner (R) KS* MO VA won in 2014 by 1.9% KY TN* NC AZ OK NM* AR SC MS AL GA Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 TX AK LA special election by 1.5% FL HI *Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 Democrats (12) Republicans (23) Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)* Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC) Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX) Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV) Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)* Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD) Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 13 Hotline: Only two Democratic Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip 1.
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