2014 Post-Election Analysis: Colorado

2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: COLORADO

TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 4 Turnout Analysis 5 Absentee/Early Voting 6 Regional Analysis 7 Election Law Impacts 7 Exit Polling 8 U.S. SENATE 12 Media Spending Analysis 16 Geographic Analysis 19 CONGRESS 20 CO-06 21 GOVERNOR 25 Primary 26 General 26 Media Spending Analysis 29 Geographic Analysis 32 OTHER CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES 34 Secretary of State 34 STATE LEGISLATURE 39 State Senate 39 State House 40 Consequences 41

STATE OVERVIEW

The year 2013 brought a political earthquake to Colorado. Fresh off a 5.4-point Obama win in 2012 and buttressed by popular incumbents like Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Mark Udall, Colorado Democrats set out to put their political capital to work.1 During the 2013 legislative session, Democrats passed a major voting-reform law, raised the renewable-energy standard, and implemented one of the country’s strongest gun-safety measures; a few weeks later, Hickenlooper spared the life of convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap with a stay of execution.2

As much as these actions thrilled progressives, however, they angered and mobilized conservatives. Where he had previously been seen as an idiosyncratic consensus-builder, Hickenlooper quickly became a polarizing figure; when he later became apologetic about his 2013 accomplishments, he was derided as indecisive.3 Republicans took out their anger at the legislature with a major grassroots effort to recall some of the state senators responsible for the new gun-safety law; they took the fight all the way to the ballot box where, in September 2013, they successfully recalled Senate President John Morse and state Senator Angela Giron.4 In November, they also forced state Senator Evie Hudak to resign in the face of a likely ouster.5 Colorado Republicans were emboldened by the wins and the success of their newfound message of Democratic overreach, and they quickly turned their sights to 2014.6

Unlike previous years in Colorado, the GOP did not stumble when it came to candidate recruitment, selecting establishment candidate Bob Beauprez to face Hickenlooper.7 The U.S. Senate election also abruptly became competitive in March when well-funded U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner announced his last-minute entry into the race.8 Add the Democrats’ slim majority in the state Senate and vulnerable Rep. Mike Coffman (R) in CO-06, and suddenly Colorado had become one of the nation’s most closely contested battleground states for the third consecutive cycle.

That fact was evident throughout the fall, as candidates raked in millions of dollars, pollsters released new surveys multiple times per week, and the state was carpeted with an estimated $76.1 million in broadcast TV ads after September 1.9 In an election that also featured Colorado’s third ballot initiative in six years seeking to define “personhood,” women’s health was a prevalent campaign theme in all races, but especially U.S. Senate and CO-06.10 However, unlike in past races, Republicans did not hide from the issue, messaging effectively to women with a deft ad campaign and moderate-sounding policies.11 Campaigns also had to deal with the unpredictable factor of vote by mail: for the first time in a federal election, all Colorado voters were mailed their ballots.12 Democrats believed this would benefit them, and they built a finely honed field program in the state to turn out their voters, including 25 field offices, 100 paid staffers and 4,000 volunteer

1 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/14/14; “Democrats Lead the Way in Colorado,” Public Policy Polling, 500 registered voters, MoE ±4.4%, April 11–14, 2013. 2 Eli Stokols, “Colorado’s historic 2013 legislative session in review,” KDVR, May 9, 2013; Dan Elliott, “Nathan Dunlap Reprieve: Hickenlooper's Decision To Block Execution Sharply Criticized,” Associated Press, May 23, 2013. 3 Alan Greenblatt, “Centrism Hurting Once-Popular Gov. Hickenlooper's Re-Election Hopes,” Governing, October 13, 2014. 4 “Atlas Analysis: Explaining Colorado,” The Atlas Project, September 11, 2013. 5 Kurtis Lee and Lynn Bartels, “Evie Hudak resigns: Colorado state senator avoids recall election,” Denver Post, November 27, 2013. 6 Amy Walter, “What Can the Colorado Recall Tell Us About 2014?”, Cook Political Report, September 18, 2013. 7 Katie Glueck, “Bob Beauprez bests Tancredo in Colorado,” POLITICO, June 24, 2014. 8 Kirk Mitchell and Lynn Bartels, “Congressman Cory Gardner announces Senate candidacy at Denver lumber yard,” Denver Post, March 1, 2014. 9 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 10 Jessica Schulberg, “Colorado's Misleading Abortion Initiative Doesn't Mention Abortion,” The New Republic, October 13, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 11 Eli Stokols, “Gardner goes on offense on birth control with second TV ad in two days,” KDVR, September 2, 2014. 12 Reid Wilson, “With a win on the line in Colorado, Democrats hope to mail it in,” Washington Post, September 12, 2014.

canvassers.13 However, the electorate that emerged from early voting numbers tilted heavily toward registered Republicans.14

Polling for governor consistently showed a statistical tie, but as the calendar turned to November, Gardner and Coffman were seen as pulling away in their races.15 On November 4, the polling averages defeated Democrats’ dreams of a broad and diverse electorate; Gardner and Coffman won by comfortable (3.4 points and 10.1 points, respectively) margins, as did Republican candidates for constitutional office.16 The governor’s race was closer, but Hickenlooper’s personal brand was still worth a few points over the baseline Democratic performance, and he scraped out a two-point win in a race not called until Wednesday morning.17 The most decisive progressive victory was the defeat of Amendment 67 (personhood), 64.6% to 35.4%.18

Control of the Colorado state Senate remained undecided for days after the election, but as of Friday Republicans led in the seat that would decide the majority.19 If the GOP wins control of the Senate, it would set up a contentious next few years in the state. Republicans would likely attempt to repeal 2013’s progressive agenda, such as the gun-safety law, although Hickenlooper and the still- Democratic state House remain a progressive line of defense. However, the Republican gains of 2014 could spell trouble for the 2016 presidential race, when Republican Secretary of State Wayne Williams will oversee mail voting he opposes in a major swing state, as well as 2021 redistricting, which Democrats would need to take back the state Senate to control.20

13 Eli Stokols, “Udall needs Democratic ground game to come up big again,” KDVR, October 16, 2014. 14 Eli Stokols, “Udall making final, furious push to turnout Latinos, younger voters,” KDVR, November 3, 2014. 15 “Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; “Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; Jon Murray, “New Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff ads take compare/contrast route,” Denver Post, September 25, 2014. 16 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 17 “Democrat John Hickenlooper wins governor race in Colorado,” Associated Press, November 5, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 18 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 19 John Aguilar, “Control of Colorado Senate down to one seat in Adams County,” Denver Post, November 6, 2014. 20 Joey Bunch, “Secretary of state candidate: Beware the household union boss,” Denver Post, October 30, 2014; “Colorado,” All About Redistricting, accessed November 5, 2014.

Colorado 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin U.S. Senate Mark Udall Cory Gardner D 45.6% 49.0% 5.4% -3.4% CO-01 Diana DeGette Martin Walsh D 65.4% 29.6% 5.0% 35.8% CO-02 Jared Polis George Leing D 56.3% 43.7% 0.0% 12.6% CO-03 Abel Tapia Scott Tipton R 35.7% 58.1% 6.3% -22.4% CO-04 Vic Meyers Ken Buck OPEN (R) 29.1% 64.8% 6.1% -35.7% CO-05 Irv Halter Doug Lamborn R 40.2% 59.8% 0.0% -19.6% CO-06 Andrew Romanoff Mike Coffman R 42.5% 52.6% 4.9% -10.1% CO-07 Ed Perlmutter Don Ytterberg D 54.6% 45.4% 0.0% 9.2% Governor John Hickenlooper Bob Beauprez D 48.7% 46.7% 4.6% 2.0% Secretary of State Joe Neguse Wayne Williams OPEN (R) 44.3% 48.1% 7.6% -3.8% Attorney General Don Quick Cynthia Coffman OPEN (R) 41.7% 52.2% 6.1% -10.5% Treasurer Betsy Markey Walker Stapleton R 44.4% 50.5% 5.1% -6.1% State Senate 8 seats 10 seats D 17 D 17 D 1 ? N/A State House 37 seats 28 seats D 31 D 29 R 5 ? N/A Sources: “2014 General Election Official Candidate List,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 14, 2014; “All Legislators,” Colorado General Assembly, accessed October 14, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; John Aguilar, “Colorado GOP concedes majority in state House to Democrats,” Denver Post, November 7, 2014.

REGISTRATION OVERVIEW The move away from Republican domination in Colorado since 2004 can be seen in the registration numbers of the past decade. Prior to Election Day 2004, Republicans held a registration advantage of 177,508 voters over Democrats (36.1% to 30.4%).21 The shift came between the 2006 and 2008 elections, when Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations preparing for the 2008 presidential election registered over 150,000 new Democrats in the state. Total registration grew by more than 200,000 during this period, with the remainder accounted for by nonpartisan or third-party voters. The total number of Republican registrants actually decreased during this period.22

Since October 2008, Colorado has experienced an even larger jump in total registration (+455,920), but most of this increase was accounted for by “other” voters, following the nationwide pattern of more voters registering as “unaffiliated” or with minor parties. Although both parties’ share of registered voters has ticked down in recent cycles, Democrats made slightly larger absolute gains in registration than Republicans, narrowing the GOP’s overall registration advantage to under 24,000 voters. As of the most recent voter-registration report at the end of October, there were 3,659,503 registered voters in Colorado — 30.6% Democratic, 31.3% Republican and 38.1% other voters.23

21 “2004 Voter Registration Numbers,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 15, 2014. 22 “2006 Voter Registration Numbers,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 15, 2014; “2008 Voter Registration Numbers,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 15, 2014. 23 “2014 Voter Registration Statistics,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 30, 2014.

Colorado Voter Registration by Party Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Other % Total Advantage October 2004 947,866 30.4% 1,125,374 36.1% 1,041,326 33.4% 3,114,566 -177,508 October 2006 896,861 30.1% 1,066,956 35.9% 1,012,028 34.0% 2,975,845 -170,095 October 2008 1,051,643 32.8% 1,063,347 33.2% 1,088,593 34.0% 3,203,583 -11,704 October 2010 1,073,926 32.6% 1,082,136 32.9% 1,137,880 34.5% 3,293,942 -8,210 October 2012 1,150,527 31.6% 1,157,083 31.8% 1,336,734 36.7% 3,644,344 -6,556 October 2014 1,120,861 30.6% 1,144,703 31.3% 1,393,939 38.1% 3,659,503 -23,842 Change Since 2004 +172,995 +0.2% 19,329 -4.9% 352,613 +4.7% +544,937 +153,666 Sources: “Results and Data,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 4, 2014.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS VEP turnout in Colorado has trended upward since 2000 and has been consistently higher than the national VEP rate. In fact, Colorado’s turnout rate has grown consistently stronger compared to the national VEP rate. Colorado voters turned out at a rate just 3.3 points higher than the national rate in 2000, but by 2006 they were turning out at a rate nearly seven points higher; in 2014, it was 15.8 points higher.24 This coincides with the rise of vote by mail in Colorado — an increasingly popular option after 2007, when a permanent absentee voter list was introduced, and even more so in 2014, the first biennial election under Colorado’s new voting law that made it a vote-by-mail state.25 Colorado’s 52.4% VEP turnout rate (based on preliminary estimates) in 2014 was its highest in any midterm year this century and the fourth-highest of any state in 2014.26 However, it was well short of the 70% that Democratic operatives had dubbed their “magic number” for victory.27

Colorado VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 3,382,959 2,401,361 71.0% 61.6% 2010 3,534,310 1,787,730 50.6% 40.9% 2012 3,674,216 2,569,522 69.9% 58.0% 2014* 3,819,197 2,000,000 52.4% 36.6% Difference from 2010 +284,887 +212,270 +1.8% -4.3% Difference from 2012 +144,981 -569,522 -17.6% -21.4% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014.

* 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final.

24 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 25 “Elections,” State of Colorado, accessed October 15, 2014; Reid Wilson, “With a win on the line in Colorado, Democrats hope to mail it in,” Washington Post, September 12, 2014. 26 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 27 David Catanese, “Colorado's Field of Dreams,” U.S. News & World Report, October 22, 2014.

ABSENTEE/EARLY VOTING Since 1992, Colorado has allowed people to vote by mail without an excuse, and the state has encouraged this option in recent years.28 In 2007, the state introduced a permanent absentee voter list, and in 2013, the state made voting by mail the default option (although voters could still vote in person if they wanted).29 The 2014 election was the first federal election in which every Colorado voter was automatically sent a mail ballot (although they continued to have the option to vote in person, either early or on Election Day, at voter service and polling centers).30 As a result, voting early and/or by mail has become more and more commonplace in recent cycles, and fewer and fewer Coloradans are voting on Election Day itself. This year, the percentage of voters casting early ballots skyrocketed to 82.2% — up from 72.1% in 2012 — thanks to the new election law making it easier than ever to vote by mail.31 Although official early-voting data from the secretary of state is only available as far back as 2010, unofficial sources suggest a similar spike took place in 2008, the first election to utilize the popular permanent absentee voter list.32

Colorado Method of Vote Since 2010 Total Absentee/Early Absentee/Early Election Day Election Day Year Voters Votes % Votes % 2010 1,821,028 1,211,297 66.5% 609,731 33.5% 2012 2,596,173 1,872,987 72.1% 723,186 27.9% 2014 1,954,519 1,607,220 82.2% 347,299 17.8% Difference from 2010 +133,491 +395,923 +15.7% -262,432 -15.7% Difference from 2012 -641,654 -265,767 +10.1% -375,887 -10.1% Sources: “Election Results Archives,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 20, 2014; “Turnout by Party by County,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 2, 2010; “2012 General Election: Turnout by Party,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 6, 2012; “Turnout Results: 2014 General Election,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 4, 2014; “Voter Turnout,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014, at 8:24 p.m.

Absentee/early voting in Colorado is more prevalent among more partisan voters, especially Republicans. In 2010, 34.6% of absentee or early voters were registered Democrats (two points higher than their share of all registered voters) and 40.7% were registered Republicans (7.8 points higher).33 In 2012, 34.3% of absentee or early voters were registered Democrats (+2.7 points) and 36.1% were registered Republicans (+4.3 points).34 In 2014, 32.3% of absentee or early voters were registered Democrats (+1.7 points) and 39.6% were registered Republicans (+8.3 points).35 Both sides had field programs in 2014 specifically devoted to chasing mail ballots.36 For details on how the new vote-by-mail law affected campaigns in Colorado in 2014, see the Election Law Impacts section below.

28 Jon Murray and Joey Bunch, “Campaigns in Colorado amp up pressure on voters to return ballots,” Denver Post, October 19, 2014. 29 “Elections,” State of Colorado, accessed October 15, 2014; Reid Wilson, “With a win on the line in Colorado, Democrats hope to mail it in,” Washington Post, September 12, 2014. 30 “CO HB 1303 – The Voter Access and Modernized Elections Act – Summary,” Bill Track 50, accessed May 28, 2013. 31 “Turnout Results: 2014 General Election,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 4, 2014; “Voter Turnout,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014, at 8:24 p.m.; “2012 General Election: Turnout by Party,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 6, 2012; “Election Results Archives,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 20, 2014. 32 “Election Administration and Voting Survey,” United States Election Assistance Commission, accessed October 30, 2012. 33 “Turnout by Party by County,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 2, 2010; “Results and Data,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 30, 2014. 34 “2012 General Election: Turnout by Party,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 6, 2012; “Results and Data,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 30, 2014. 35 “Turnout Results: 2014 General Election,” Colorado Secretary of State, November 4, 2014; “Results and Data,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 4, 2014. 36 Jon Murray and Joey Bunch, “Campaigns in Colorado amp up pressure on voters to return ballots,” Denver Post, October 19, 2014.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS Colorado’s urban, suburban, exurban and rural areas are all distinct and run the gamut ideologically. Broadly, the state is made up of the thinly populated and conservative Eastern Plains; the Front Range region (an urban corridor in the Rocky Mountain foothills that is home to a majority of Colorado’s population centers, including Denver and Colorado Springs); and the Western Slope, a mountainous haven for ski resorts, small towns and national parks.

The Front Range can be broken down further still. Denver County, which includes the capital city, is the most important Democratic base area in the state; its large population frequently votes around 70% Democratic. To Denver’s north and east are Broomfield County, a well-to-do swing county, and fast-growing Adams County, which leans Democratic and is heavily Hispanic.37 The suburbs and exurbs to Denver’s southeast are more conservative; populous Arapahoe (home of Aurora) is a county successful Democrats are usually able to win, but Douglas and Elbert Counties are deeply conservative.38 However, the most important suburban Denver county is Jefferson County, to the city’s west. Jefferson cast more votes in 2014 than any other county in Colorado, and it is a quintessential swing region.39 No top-of-the-ticket candidate since 1992 has won statewide without winning Jefferson.40

To the north, Boulder County is a deeply Democratic area and top GOTV target. Larimer is a swing county, while Weld is solidly Republican. To the south, El Paso County is a major vote bank for Republicans.41 It is the biggest county in Colorado thanks to Colorado Springs, one of the most conservative big cities in the U.S.42 One county to the south, Pueblo usually votes Democratic, but Democrats here are of a less liberal nature. Other smaller counties south of Pueblo behave similarly.43 Large Hispanic populations boost Democratic candidates here.44

In the Western Slope — the part of the state west of the Continental Divide — there are few large counties. A notable exception is Mesa County, home of Grand Junction. The whole Grand Junction media market, as well as the counties in the state’s northwest corner, are deeply Republican base areas. However, Western Slope counties along the I-70 corridor, including Eagle, Pitkin and Summit, are strongly Democratic, despite their small size.45

ELECTION LAW IMPACTS On May 10, 2013, Governor Hickenlooper signed HB 1303, the Voter Access and Modernized Elections Act.46 The law dramatically changed how elections are administered in the state of Colorado, affecting everything from voter-registration deadlines to use of mail ballots, from the change-of-address procedure to inactive voter status. Among the new law’s many provisions:

37 “Broomfield County, Colorado,” U.S. Census Bureau, accessed October 17, 2014; “Adams County, Colorado,” U.S. Census Bureau, accessed October 17, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14. 38 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14. 39 “Voter Turnout,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014, at 8:24 p.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14. 40 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14. 41 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14. 42 “Population Totals for Colorado Counties,” Colorado Department of Local Affairs, accessed October 17, 2014; “The Most Conservative and Liberal Cities in the United States,” The Bay Area Center for Voting Research, accessed October 17, 2014. 43 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14; Lynn Bartels, Kurtis Lee and Joey Bunch, “Colorado Senate President John Morse, state Sen. Angela Giron ousted,” Denver Post, September 10, 2013. 44 Atlas Online Toolkit, Maps module, accessed 10/17/14. 45 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/17/14. 46 “CO HB 1303 – The Voter Access and Modernized Elections Act – Action History,” Bill Track 50, accessed May 28, 2013.

. It extended the deadlines for different types of voter registration, notably allowing for Election Day registration at polling centers. . It made all elections mail elections, meaning that all registered voters automatically received ballots by mail for the first time in 2014. However, they were also given the choice between casting mail ballots or visiting polling places on or before Election Day. . It eliminated inactive voter status resulting from failure to vote in a single election. . It made voter registration more portable, requiring the secretary of state to conduct monthly National Change of Address searches and work with county clerks to ensure that addresses are updated and confirmed.47 The reform had several immediate impacts on the 2014 campaign. Most significantly, it may have led to increased turnout in a year when national turnout was 4.3 points lower than 2010, Colorado’s turnout increased by 1.8 points over 2010 levels.48 However, it did not appear to result in the more Democratic-friendly electorate that progressives were hoping for. In addition, anecdotal evidence suggested that large numbers of people took advantage of the option to register to vote on Election Day.49 Finally, vote by mail may have slowed the ballot-counting process somewhat, as mailed ballots require the verification of every signature. Consequently, the results of key races, such as governor and control of the state legislature, were not known until days after the election.50

Campaigns also used 2014 as a laboratory to test new field strategies that sought to take advantage of the new law. Some groups, for instance, chased non-registered, potential voters to encourage them to register on Election Day. America Votes Colorado also emphasized voters’ many options for casting a ballot with its field effort. Literature explained how voters could choose how (by mail or in person) and when (early or on November 4) to vote, and canvassers were armed with information like the location of the nearest voter service and polling centers.51 A robust ballot-chasing program was also a key part of the campaign this year, although this was not too different from 2012, when voting by mail was still extremely common. Colorado still differed from other states, however, in that the GOTV period was several weeks long and started when ballots dropped the week of October 14.52

Despite fears from many Republicans, there was no evidence that the vote-by-mail system led to any voter fraud.53

EXIT POLLING Vote by mail produced an atypical midterm electorate for Colorado, although it was not necessarily more favorable to Democrats. Minority and young voters participated at rates similar to 2008 and 2012, but they were just as — if not more — disinclined to support Democrats as in 2010. Note that the figures below are drawn from CNN exit polling, which is an imperfect tool for accurately gauging turnout and performance of smaller groups.

47 “CO HB 1303 – The Voter Access and Modernized Elections Act – Summary,” Bill Track 50, accessed May 28, 2013. 48 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 49 Jon Murray and Christopher Osher, “Surge in older voters aided Cory Gardner's victory over Mark Udall,” Denver Post, November 6, 2014. 50 Kent Erdahl, “Thousands of votes still uncounted; new mail-in ballot system one reason why,” KDVR, November 5, 2014. 51 Atlas expert interview, conducted October 17, 2014. 52 Jon Murray and Joey Bunch, “Campaigns in Colorado amp up pressure on voters to return ballots,” Denver Post, October 19, 2014; Atlas expert interview, conducted October 17, 2014. 53 “Colorado clerk: No evidence of mail-in ballot fraud,” Colorado Public Radio, November 6, 2014.

RACE

Democratic candidates in Colorado typically win the support of Hispanic voters by large margins but are less successful among white voters. In 2012, 75% of Hispanic voters supported President Obama, representing a record high for Democrats in the state; past support among Hispanic voters sat in the low 60s. Conversely, Democrats rarely win a majority among white voters statewide — although Colorado whites are more Democratic than the national average. This cycle, Udall reached a new nadir for Democratic performance among white voters with 43%, helping to explain his defeat. However, Hickenlooper won 47% of the white vote, matching his 2010 performance and about average for recent Democrats in Colorado.

Notably, Udall lost his seat despite the electorate being just as racially diverse as in 2012. The 14% of voters who were Hispanic tied with 2012 for the highest ever. Although Hispanics were too small a subgroup to break out a specific performance for, this suggests that Udall’s support among Hispanics was well below Obama’s, and even Bennet’s in 2010. In 2010, Bennet emerged victorious with a virtually identical performance to Udall’s among whites in a whiter, less Hispanic electorate. This may demonstrate that it is not enough for Colorado Democrats to ensure that their coalition turns out — voters must be persuaded as well.

Colorado Performance and Vote Share by Race Obama Udall Bennet Hickenlooper Obama Udall Hickenlooper Race 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Race (Exit Polls) White 50% 50% 44% 47% 44% 43% 47% Hispanic 61% 63% N/A N/A 75% N/A N/A Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls) White 81% 81% 81% 81% 78% 79% 78% African American 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% Hispanic 13% 13% 12% 12% 14% 14% 14% Asian 0% 0% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% Other 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% Sources: “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 1:58 p.m.; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:01 p.m.

GENDER

Women are declining as a share of the electorate in Colorado. Before 2008, women made up a significantly greater share of Colorado voters than men.54 However, from 2008 to 2012, the electorate’s gender was roughly split down the middle. This year, the bottom dropped out, and male voters outnumbered women by a six- to eight-point margin. This shift spelled trouble for Democrats, who have historically made up for subpar performances among men by winning female voters.

In 2014, Udall did 13 points better among women, while Hickenlooper did 12 points better. For Udall, this was a much bigger gap than his six-point gender gap in 2008, while for Hickenlooper it was comparable to his 2010 difference of 15 points. However, Udall set a record for lowest Democratic performance among men at 39%. While he performed respectably (52%) among women — better

54 “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2004.

even than Obama in 2012 — it was not enough to overcome the majority-male electorate. Udall’s focus on women’s issues during the campaign was criticized as too narrow and may have turned off men from voting for him.55

Udall’s focus on women’s issues appears to have spoken to the subgroup of unmarried women, 66% of whom voted for him. However, they were only 16% of the electorate. Married women were double that (30% of the electorate) and voted for Gardner 49% to 47%. Interestingly, Hickenlooper performed about the same as Udall with unmarried and married women, but he excelled with unmarried men, winning them 50% to 41%. In the Senate race, Gardner won unmarried men 53% to 39%.56

Colorado Performance and Vote Share by Gender Obama Udall Bennet Hickenlooper Obama Udall Hickenlooper Gender 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 56% 56% 56% 59% 51% 52% 55% Men 49% 50% 40% 44% 51% 39% 43% Vote Share by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 50% 50% 50% 50% 51% 47% 46% Men 50% 50% 50% 50% 49% 53% 54% Sources: “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 1:58 p.m.; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:01 p.m.

UNION MEMBERSHIP

Colorado exit polls have not asked about union affiliation in the past several elections. Unions play a significant role in the state’s politics, but their membership numbers are too small to be a major presence in the state, as just 7.6% of workers are union members.57

PARTISANSHIP (SELF-ID)

By partisanship, Democrats in 2014 encountered their unfriendliest electorate in years. Whereas, in the past two cycles, self-identifying Democrats outnumbered self-identifying Republicans, in 2014 the GOP had a four-point advantage. In addition, unaffiliated voters reached their historical high- water mark at 41% of voters.

The unfavorable partisan composition meant that typical performance levels, such as the 96% of Democrats, 5% of Republicans, and 45% of independents won by Obama in 2012, would not cut it in 2014. Udall virtually matched the president’s 2012 performance demographically and yet obviously finished in much worse position. Hickenlooper found a path to victory through more moderate and even conservative voters, winning a plurality of independents and 10% of Republicans — despite a worse performance among Democrats than Udall and most other recent candidates. This likely indicates that Hickenlooper’s centrist image, while tarnished somewhat from 2010 (when he won 16% of Republicans), made the difference for him. By contrast, Udall was seen as a more partisan

55 Alexandra Jaffe, “Democrats' 'war on women' falling flat in Colorado Senate,” The Hill, September 26, 2014. 56 “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 1:58 p.m.; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:01 p.m. 57 “Union Membership, Coverage, Density and Employment by State, 2013,” Georgia State University, accessed November 5, 2014.

candidate in a way he was not seen in 2008, when he won 10% of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliated voters.

Colorado Performance and Vote Share by Party ID Obama Udall Bennet Hickenlooper Obama Udall Hickenlooper Party ID 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 92% 93% 94% 96% 96% 96% 92% Republican 13% 10% 10% 16% 5% 5% 10% Independent 54% 55% 37% 39% 45% 42% 49% Share of Vote by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 30% 30% 33% 33% 34% 28% 28% Republican 31% 31% 28% 27% 29% 32% 32% Independent 39% 39% 39% 40% 37% 41% 41% Sources: “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 1:58 p.m.; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:01 p.m.

AGE

Historically, Democrats in Colorado ride their strength with voters ages 45–64, the largest generation of voters, to victory. However, in 2014, with 46% support, Udall and Hickenlooper both registered lower than any other Democrats in recent memory with this age group. Udall also set a historical low with seniors (35% performance), and Hickenlooper did not do much better at 38%. However, Hickenlooper bucked a trend by doing the best among 30- to 44-year-olds (48%). Hickenlooper may hold more appeal with younger voters thanks to his quirky image as the “cool governor.”58 Meanwhile, Udall has always struggled with this age group. He could muster only 42% of their support in 2014, and in 2008, when he won election easily, he barely did better with them than among seniors, Democrats’ worst demographic.

Unfortunately, recent Colorado exit polls are incomplete and fail to show results for 18- to 29-year- olds, usually one of Democrats’ strongest age groups. In 2014, they accounted for 14% of the electorate. At first glance, this appears to be a dropoff from 2012, but their 20% share that year was likely driven by the presence on the ballot of Amendment 64, which legalized marijuana in the state.59 In fact, 14% is a sizeable turnout for this cohort, matching their 2008 share of the electorate and exceeding 2010’s 9% share. Higher baseline participation among younger voters could be one of the side effects of vote by mail. Overall, the age of the 2014 electorate more closely resembled presidential years than it did 2010.

It is important to note that, tracking across the previous three federal election cycles, there has been a sharp divide in nationwide Democratic performance among young voters, falling along racial lines. In national exit polls of the last three federal election cycles, Democratic performance with young minority voters has remained consistently high, while over the same span, national Democratic

58 Seth McConnell, “Watch: Gov. John Hickenlooper plays banjo with Old Crow Medicine Show at Red Rocks,” Reverb, July 16, 2014. 59 “The Colorado Vote: The President and Pot,” KUNC, November 8, 2012.

performance with young white voters has dropped in successive cycles, down from 54% in 2008 to 45% in 2010, 44% in 2012, and 43% in 2014.60

Colorado Performance and Vote Share by Age Obama Udall Bennet Hickenlooper Obama Udall Hickenlooper Age 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2014 2014 Performance by Age (Exit Polls) 30–44 53% 49% 47% 49% 50% 42% 48% 45–64 56% 59% 49% 53% 51% 46% 46% 65+ 44% 48% 43% 44% 42% 35% 38% Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 14% 14% 9% 9% 20% 14% 14% 30–44 33% 33% 22% 22% 27% 28% 28% 45–64 39% 39% 47% 47% 37% 40% 40% 65+ 13% 13% 22% 21% 16% 18% 18% Sources: “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 2, 2010; “Colorado President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “Colorado Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 1:58 p.m.; “Colorado Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:01 p.m.

U.S. SENATE

Democratic Senator Mark Udall, who easily won his seat in 2008, had no reason to think he was in trouble when he kicked off his 2014 re-election campaign in October 2012.61 According to an April 2013 Public Policy Polling survey, 50% of voters approved of Udall’s job performance and 33% disapproved.62 Even as 2013 soured Colorado’s opinion of Democrats, only a handful of weak challengers stepped up to face Udall, including right-wing firebrand Ken Buck, state Senator Randy Baumgardner, state Senator Owen Hill, and state Rep. Amy Stephens. With millions of dollars in the bank at the end of 2013 and solid leads over them in polls, Udall continued to look in good shape for re-election.63

That all changed in early March 2014, when Republican U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner unexpectedly ended his re-election bid and announced his candidacy for Senate.64 The GOP quickly rallied to his side, as Buck and Stephens dropped out immediately, with all other Republican candidates soon

60 Surbhi Godsay, Amanda Nover, and Emily Kirby, “The Minority Youth Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, October 2010; “Young Voters in the 2010 Elections,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, November 17, 2010; “National President Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 6, 2012; “National House Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 7, 2014, at 11:48 p.m. 61 Allison Sherry, “Udall compares 2014 re-elect campaign to climbing Everest,” Denver Post, October 10, 2012. 62 “Democrats Lead the Way in Colorado,” Public Policy Polling, 500 registered voters, MoE ±4.4%, April 11–14, 2013. 63 Kurtis Lee, “Sen. Mark Udall rakes in $1 million in Q3 fundraising as field of GOP challengers grows,” Denver Post, October 14, 2013; Kurtis Lee, “Poll shows Mark Udall ahead of GOP rivals for Senate in 2014,” Denver Post, November 20, 2013. 64 Kirk Mitchell and Lynn Bartels, “Congressman Cory Gardner announces Senate candidacy at Denver lumber yard,” Denver Post, March 1, 2014.

following suit.65 Suddenly, Colorado was one of the main battlegrounds for control of the U.S. Senate, and the GOP began to invest accordingly.66

Udall endured some bad press throughout the year as the polling average became neck and neck. Republicans mocked Udall for supporting the extension of unemployment benefits even as a tax lien was filed against his campaign for not paying for its employees’ unemployment insurance.67 Obamacare was an especially cherished GOP talking point after Udall staffers allegedly pressured the state of Colorado to revise its estimates of how many residents lost their insurance under the law.68 On energy, the senator drew criticism for first waffling on, then ultimately voting against, the Keystone XL pipeline.69 Finally, Udall had to apologize when he said two American journalists killed by the Islamic State would have supported his cautious approach on foreign policy.70

However, women’s health was the dominant issue in the race — sometimes even the exclusive issue, to hear Udall tell it. Seeking to replicate a path to victory with women voters from the state’s 2010 Senate race, Udall repeatedly pummeled Gardner on abortion and birth control, even after Gardner flip-flopped to oppose the personhood ballot amendment early in the campaign.71 Gardner also tried to appropriate the contraception issue for himself. Attempting to run to Udall’s left on the issue, Gardner lobbied for birth control to be available over the counter.72 However, Udall would not let up on the issue, leading some to question whether the attack was overdone and the strategy would backfire.73 In endorsing Gardner, the Denver Post criticized Udall’s “obnoxious, one-issue campaign” that it said was debating a settled issue rather than engaging with the wider spectrum of issues.74

Prominent Democrats, such as Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton and Elizabeth Warren, came to Colorado to campaign and fundraise for Udall, but the senator avoided associations with Barack Obama — even skipping his own campaign’s fundraiser featuring the president.75 Regardless, the president’s standing — 41% approval to 56% disapproval — may have dragged down Udall, according to one poll; the two-thirds of respondents who said Obama was a factor in deciding their vote leaned strongly Republican.76

Dozens of outside groups spent a combined $69.4 million in the race, led by Crossroads GPS ($8.7 million), the DSCC ($8.1 million) and NextGen Climate Action ($7.4 million).77 In addition to TV ads, NextGen put up anti-Gardner billboards and fanned out across the state with 68 staffers and

65 Kirk Mitchell and Lynn Bartels, “Congressman Cory Gardner announces Senate candidacy at Denver lumber yard,” Denver Post, March 1, 2014; Hugh Johnson, “Mark Aspiri becomes the 5th Republican to drop out of the U.S. Senate race since Rep. Cory Gardner jumped in,” Denver Post, April 1, 2014; Kurtis Lee, “Rep. Cory Gardner wins big at assembly, will challenge Sen. Mark Udall,” Denver Post, April 12, 2014. 66 Eli Stokols, “Rasmussen poll shows Udall, Gardner in dead heat,” KDVR, March 10, 2014; “Republican Party ups investment in Colorado,” Associated Press, March 11, 2014. 67 “Lien filed against Senator Mark Udall's campaign for $458 underpayment, balance paid 6 days later,” Associated Press, March 21, 2014. 68 Emily Schultheis, “Mark Udall on defense over health cancellations,” POLITICO, January 10, 2014. 69 Mark Matthews, “Mark Udall votes 'no' on Keystone, says more time needed; GOP pounces,” Denver Post, June 18, 2014. 70 Lynn Bartels, “Sen. Mark Udall apologizes for speaking on behalf of slain journalists,” Denver Post, September 8, 2014. 71 Lynn Bartels, “Colorado's "war on women" and the U.S. Senate race: the sequel,” Denver Post, September 24, 2014. 72 Lynn Bartels and Mark Matthews, “Birth control issue ignites in Colorado's U.S. Senate contest,” Denver Post, June 20, 2014. 73 Alexandra Jaffe, “Democrats' 'war on women' falling flat in Colorado Senate,” The Hill, September 26, 2014. 74 “Cory Gardner for U.S. Senate,” Denver Post, October 10, 2014. 75 Dan Balz, “Hillary Clinton stumps for Udall in Colorado, calling race ‘especially important’ for women,” Washington Post, October 21, 2014; “Bill Clinton lends voice to help support embattled Colorado Democrats Mark Udall, John Hickenlooper,” Associated Press, September 28, 2014; John Frank, “Elizabeth Warren helps launch Udall bus tour, ignite Democratic energy,” Denver Post, October 17, 2014; Maeve Reston, “Sen. Mark Udall skips Obama Colorado visit to focus on women's issues,” Los Angeles Times, July 9, 2014. 76 John Frank and Lynn Bartels, “Obama looms as a factor in Colorado Senate, governor race, poll shows,” Denver Post, October 14, 2014. 77 “Colorado Senate Race,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed November 5, 2014.

volunteers in five field offices.78 The LCV devoted $1.6 million to a field operation that would knock on 268,000 doors on Udall’s behalf; it also employed a unique new GOTV technique where it issued robocalls with the voter’s own voice telling him or her to go vote (the messages were prerecorded via a previous round of calls in October).79 LCV also went up with TV ads and spent $26,000 on anti- Gardner online ads in April.80 In late September, the NEA also mailed 36,499 voters with two different mail pieces praising Udall’s record on education.81 On the conservative side, Americans for Prosperity deployed five field directors, 30 field organizers and 120 volunteers explicitly urging voters to vote against Udall.82 The super PAC claimed to have called 80,000 voters and canvassed 40,000 more.83

As for the campaigns, Udall both outraised ($18.3 million to $10.6 million) and outspent ($17.9 million to $9.2 million) Gardner, although much of this was due to Gardner’s late start in the race; the two were evenly matched in fundraising reports throughout 2014.84 The funds supplemented an already formidable Democratic ground game, the price tag of which totaled $15 million.85 Building off Senator Michael Bennet’s storied operation from 2010, the coordinated campaign boasted 25 field offices, 100 staffers and 4,000 volunteers at the ready to get out the vote for Udall.86 However, Republicans learned from past Democratic successes and also developed a robust field program, with 14 offices across Colorado — the most the party has ever had in a midterm.87 Gardner also amassed 2,000 paid canvassers by October, and the RNC sent 500 staffers of its own to Arapahoe County in September.88

For most of the year, Udall led slightly in polls — often within the margin of error, but rare was the poll that did not show the Democrat ahead. However, a shift occurred in mid-September, portended by a Quinnipiac poll that showed Gardner up by eight points. Initially dismissed as an outlier, it looked more like a leading indicator when 18 of the next 20 polls also showed Gardner ahead by small but consistent margins.89 By mid-October, the conventional wisdom had decided Udall was now the underdog. Democratic pollsters Joel Benenson and Mark Mellman released two surveys with Udall up by three to counter the narrative, and the Udall campaign also leaked an internal poll showing him up 45% to 44%.90 However, forecasters like FiveThirtyEight continued to put their stock in the public polling average.91 In the end, the polls were indeed off the mark — but not the way Democrats had argued. Instead, they were biased slightly toward Republicans.

78 Lynn Bartels, “NextGen Climate welcomes Rep. Cory Gardner to Grand Junction with attack billboards,” Denver Post, September 2, 2014; Eli Stokols, “Steyer group now has 68 staffers in Colorado working to brand Gardner a ‘troglodyte’,” KDVR, September 3, 2014. 79 Laura Barron-Lopez, “Greens boost Senate Dem with $1.6M in Colorado,” The Hill, October 16, 2014; Mark Matthews, “Now who’s calling for your vote in Colorado? Yourself.”, Denver Post, November 3, 2014. 80 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 81 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/25/14. 82 Ernest Luning, “The ground game begins,” Colorado Statesman, October 17, 2014. 83 John Frank and Lynn Bartels, “Democrats look for a 2010 sequel in changed 2014 landscape,” Denver Post, October 28, 2014. 84 “Colorado Senate Race,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; Atlas Online Toolkit, Daily News Clips module, accessed 10/25/14. 85 Joshua Green, “The Battle for Colorado Is the Battle for America,” Bloomberg Politics, October 8, 2014. 86 Eli Stokols, “Udall needs Democratic ground game to come up big again,” KDVR, October 16, 2014. 87 Ernest Luning, “The ground game begins,” Colorado Statesman, October 17, 2014. 88 David Catanese, “Colorado's Field of Dreams,” U.S. News & World Report, October 22, 2014. 89 “Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014. 90 Steven Shepard, “Mark Udall internal puts him up 1,” POLITICO, October 24, 2014; Harry Enten, “Senate Update: Colorado Polling Is Probably Right. Udall Is Losing.”, FiveThirtyEight, October 22, 2014. 91 Harry Enten, “Senate Update: Colorado Polling Is Probably Right. Udall Is Losing.”, FiveThirtyEight, October 22, 2014.

Colorado Senate 2014 Public Polling

Colorado Senate Polling Accuracy Pollster Dates Sample Udall % Gardner % NBC News/Marist 10/18–10/22 755 LVs 45% 46% Rasmussen (R) 10/21–10/23 966 LVs 45% 51% YouGov 10/25–10/31 1417 LVs 42% 43% Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/27–10/29 618 LVs 44% 46% Quinnipiac 10/28–11/2 815 LVs 43% 45% PPP (D) 11/1–11/2 739 LVs 45% 48% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 44.0% 46.5% Final Results N/A N/A 45.6% 49.0% Difference N/A N/A +1.6% +2.5% Sources: “Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.

As early voting numbers trickled in through the end of October, the electorate did not look favorable for Democrats. Udall worked tirelessly in the campaign’s final days to reach minority and younger voters who had not yet voted — for example, holding three separate GOTV rallies on the state’s biggest college campuses on Election Day.92 However, it was to no avail. Gardner was elected Colorado’s new senator, 49.0% to 45.6%.

Colorado Senate 2014 Results Registered Total Udall Gardner Gardner Other Udall % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes % Votes 3,659,503 1,934,140 881,306 45.6% 947,418 49.0% 105,416 5.5% Sources: “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; “2014 Voter Registration Statistics,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 30, 2014.

92 Eli Stokols, “Udall making final, furious push to turnout Latinos, younger voters,” KDVR, November 3, 2014.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Colorado was one of the most expensive Senate races in the country, and both sides contributed equally to the broadcast air wars. In the end, Udall and his outside allies aired slightly more spots, 35,423, than Gardner and his allies, 31,737. Progressives also outspent conservatives, an estimated $24.8 million to $22.0 million. Despite the high cost, advertisers followed the voters and aired ads primarily in the Denver media market (59.4% of all spots), though a healthy percentage (31.2%) were aired in Colorado Springs, too. Republicans were more likely to advertise in Colorado Springs (32.6% of conservative spots) and Grand Junction (14.5% of conservative spots), while 65.1% of progressive spots aired in Denver.93

The Udall campaign was by far the biggest spender on the Democratic side, airing 14,710 spots for an estimated $8.4 million. However, outside groups still aired 56.2% of Democratic spots, so they played a prominent role. Progressive groups to play a role included the following:

. The DSCC spent an estimated $4.4 million on 6,068 spots starting on August 20.94 . Senate Majority PAC aired 4,879 spots for an estimated $3.7 million, going up in spurts from March 22 through April 14, May 16 through June 5, June 23 through July 31, September 19 through October 1, and October 21 through the election.95 . NextGen Climate Action Committee’s 2,659 spots (worth an estimated $2.3 million) aired between August 19 and September 2, then again between September 16 and October 16, with a sporadic smattering of spots filling in the gaps between major buys.96 . The League of Conservation Voters spent an estimated $1.4 million on 1,455 spots, with most ads between April 18 and May 8 but an additional final push from October 14 through Election Day.97 . Organized labor, including AFSCME PEOPLE (1,803 spots for an estimated $1.4 million), SEIU COPE (778 spots for an estimated $992,750), and the NEA Advocacy Fund (230 spots for an estimated $271,720) combined to air more spots than any group that was not an entity of the Senate Democratic caucus in Washington, D.C.98 Conservative outside groups far outspent the coordinated campaign for Republicans, accounting for 66.0% of Republican spots aired. The Gardner campaign was still the most active individual advertiser, airing 8,776 spots for an estimated $5.1 million. It aired an additional 1,999 spots (an estimated $1.2 million more) in conjunction with the NRSC. Crossroads GPS (6,900 spots for an estimated $6.6 million), the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (3,002 spots for an estimated $1.6 million) and Americans for Prosperity (2,942 spots for an estimated $943,700) were the most prolific conservative IE advertisers.99

In an effort to appeal to Colorado’s growing Hispanic population, 3,976 spots — 2,413 Democratic ones and 1,563 Republican ones — were aired in Spanish.100 Among the groups airing Spanish-

93 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 94 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 95 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 96 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 97 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 98 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 99 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 100 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

language ads were the NRSC, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, SEIU and the NEA. SEIU and the NEA were part of a broader progressive coalition that spent over $1 million on TV, radio and digital ads meant to mobilize Hispanic voters.101

Colorado Senate Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, March 17 – November 4, 2014

101 Sandra Fish, “Spanish-language political ads pick up steam in Colo.”, Colorado Public Radio, September 15, 2014; Alexis Levinson, “National Education Association Dives Into Colorado Race,” Roll Call, September 23, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Colorado Senate Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, March 17 – November 4, 2014

Media spending also extended to substantial cable ad buys by both sides, allowing the campaigns to reach targeted audiences. For example, Cory Gardner bought over 1,000 spots (worth $263,000) on networks with high viewership among women, such as HGTV and the Food Network. Progressives made buys on these networks as well as on live-sports networks and cable channels popular with young voters, such as Comedy Central. In total, Udall and the DSCC spent over $1 million on cable ads between September 1 and October 12 alone. Gardner and the NRCC spent $749,000 in the same time period.102

MESSAGING

The “war on women” was the dominant campaign theme for progressives, accounting for 37% of messages they disseminated in broadcast advertising. Breaking the typical mold of starting off positive, the Udall campaign made its first ad a blistering attack on Gardner for voting to ban abortion and birth control. Four of his first eight ads touched on the same theme.103 Democratic IEs also focused on women’s issues, such as the DSCC ad warning that Gardner was “way too extreme for Colorado.”104 A NARAL Pro-Choice Colorado ad campaign that suggested Gardner’s policies would lead to a condom shortage was another example and marked the point when many observers thought the strategy had become too over-the-top.105

However, Republicans also ran ads appealing to women. Perhaps the most critical was Gardner’s response to Udall’s attacks, which featured Gardner talking to a town hall about his desire to make

102 Mark Matthews, “Mark Udall and Cory Gardner are competing for cable ad buys,” Denver Post, October 25, 2014. 103 Lynn Bartels, “Colorado's "war on women" and the U.S. Senate race: the sequel,” Denver Post, September 24, 2014. 104 “Colorado's Mark Udall gets ad boost in Senate race,” Associated Press, August 21, 2014. 105 Eli Stokols, “NARAL ad: Gardner win would cause a condom shortage,” KDVR, October 29, 2014.

birth control over the counter.106 Other spots from outside groups, such as Crossroads GPS’s ad “Talk,” which featured four women in a Colorado kitchen discussing issues beyond women’s health, explicitly sought to identify with women voters.107

Gardner continued to defend himself on birth control in “Better Course,” in which he complained Udall “won’t talk about anything else.” When Udall’s next volley of ads doubled down on attacking Gardner’s stance on women’s issues, it confirmed for many voters Gardner’s assertion that Udall was running a broken record of a campaign.108

Overall, however, conservatives took a more balanced approach to messaging. The Gardner campaign went up early with anti-Obamacare arguments, but those tapered off as they did not appear to be effective.109 The GOP found more success with miscellaneous topics like drumming up fears over Islamic State terrorists and, of course, berating President Obama.110

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Social Issues 37% 5% 24% Health Care 19% 25% 22% Economy 10% 21% 15% Energy/Environment 9% 15% 12% Other 24% 34% 28% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

The race was fairly negative in tone (57.2% of all ads were negative), and outside groups aired the most negative ads. A full 85.2% of outside ads were negative, while coordinated spots were just 16.1% negative.111

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS To win statewide in Colorado, successful Democrats must run up the score in liberal Denver (at least 70%) and Boulder (at least 68%); win the bellwether counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Adams; and hold down Republican margins in El Paso County (win at least 35%), a major bank of Republican votes. Mark Udall came agonizingly close to hitting these benchmarks but ultimately did not have the cushion of votes needed to win.

As of Wednesday evening, with some precincts yet to report, Udall and Gardner were running a hair’s breadth apart in the Denver suburbs, the state’s critical battleground counties. The margin in Arapahoe was 0.2 points, Gardner was up in Jefferson by 0.4 points, and Udall held an 0.8-point advantage in Adams. While bellwethers, these counties lean slightly Democratic, so this was an early indicator that Udall was struggling. Udall also underperformed in the Democratic base counties of Denver (70%, compared to 74% for Obama in 2012) and Boulder (68%, compared to Obama’s 70%). Perhaps more damaging, however, were the margins (62% to 32%) Gardner was able to run up in El Paso County, where Mitt Romney beat Obama 59% to 39%. Udall was also in danger of

106 Eli Stokols, “Gardner goes on offense on birth control with second TV ad in two days,” KDVR, September 2, 2014. 107 Rebecca Berg, “Crossroads GPS appeals to Colorado women with new ad,” Washington Examiner, September 16, 2014. 108 Eli Stokols, “Udall campaign goes up with two new ads responding to attacks,” KDVR, October 3, 2014. 109 Mark Matthews, “Udall and Gardner battle over Obamacare even as issue dims,” Denver Post, October 8, 2014. 110 Eli Stokols, “Foreign policy battle escalates in Colorado’s U.S. Senate race,” KDVR, October 7, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 111 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

losing Pueblo and Larimer, two counties that strong Democrats, like President Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Michael Bennet in 2010, capture. For comparison, in 2010, Senator Michael Bennet won Larimer, Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson Counties and took Pueblo by double digits.112

Udall 2014 Performance by County

Udall did manage to win the Denver media market, 49.0% to 45.7%, but Democrats are accustomed to winning an outright majority here, as Udall himself did with 55.8% in 2008. Meanwhile, perhaps due to conservatives’ heavy media campaign there, Gardner won the Colorado Springs-Pueblo media market 59.2% to 34.4%, among the best Republican performances there in recent history.113 CONGRESS

Four of Colorado’s incumbent members of Congress cruised to an easy re-election. Diana DeGette, Jared Polis and Ed Perlmutter trounced their opponents in the safely blue CO-01, CO-02 and CO-07 respectively; on the Republican side, Rep. Scott Tipton easily won re-election in the conservative CO-03. In CO-04, Ken Buck (R) defeated Vic Meyers (D) 64.8% to 29.1% for Cory Gardner’s open seat.114 For a time, Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) was thought to be vulnerable in his CO-05; he barely survived a primary challenge, 52.6% to 47.4%.115 Democrat Irv Halter, a retired Air Force general,

112 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/5/14. 113 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/5/14. 114 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:11 p.m. 115 “Colorado Election Results,” Colorado Secretary of State, June 24, 2014.

then outraised Lamborn and capitalized on the Colorado Springs representative’s poor record on military issues.116 Despite the effort, Lamborn managed re-election with a 59.8%-to-40.2% margin.117 None of the action in these districts, however, could compare to the campaign in CO-06 — one of the most evenly matched districts in the country.118 CO-06 After redistricting drew the eastern suburbs of Denver, including Aurora and Centennial, into CO-06, the district’s Democratic Performance Index increased by about seven points to 49.1%, making Rep. Mike Coffman suddenly one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress.119 In 2012, Coffman narrowly fended off a challenge from a little-known Democrat, winning re-election by just two points.120 A more serious 2014 challenger quickly emerged: in February 2013, Democratic campaign veteran and former speaker of the state House Andrew Romanoff announced that he would run against Coffman.121

Money started pouring into the race right away, as both Coffman and Romanoff regularly were nationwide leaders in fundraising by congressional candidates. Outside groups started spending, too, as early as summer 2013 during the debate over immigration reform. Immigration advocacy group Coloradans for Citizenship Now registered 7,000 new voters in the 20% Hispanic district, and ads began airing on the topic a full 16 months before Election Day.122 Immigration was just one of the issues Coffman softened his conservative stances on; over the course of the campaign, he endorsed a path to citizenship, voted to end the government shutdown and came to oppose a personhood amendment.123

Personhood, as well as issues such as equal pay for women, access to birth control and defunding Planned Parenthood, moved to the forefront of the conversation as the campaign ramped up in summer 2014.124 Romanoff attacked Coffman for his anti-choice and pro-personhood record and sought to capitalize on a Coffman gaffe in their first debate, in which the Republican forgot what “birth control” was.125 However, Coffman attacked the criticism head-on, addressing women’s issues in multiple ads and arguing that he had been a fighter for women throughout his career.126 Immigration also continued to be a sticking point on the campaign trail.127 It was a focal point of their final debate, which was conducted entirely in Spanish and aired on the Denver Univision station.128 On the stump, Coffman also made a point of talking to voters in Spanish, which he started learning at the beginning of the campaign.129 Finally, the Colorado Education Association injected education

116 Hugh Johnson, “UPDATED: Democrat Irv Halter will likely debate a chicken Thursday,” Denver Post, October 16, 2014; Megan Schrader, “Lamborn under attack for saying military leaders should resign,” Colorado Springs Gazette, September 28, 2014. 117 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 12:38 p.m. 118 Kristen Wyatt, “Democrat Romanoff hoping for US House upset,” Associated Press, November 4, 2014. 119 Atlas Online Toolkit, NCEC Tables module, accessed 10/28/14. 120 “2012 General Election,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed March 11, 2013. 121 Abby Livingston, “Colorado: Andrew Romanoff announces bid against Mike Coffman,” Roll Call, February 2, 2013. 122 Zahira Torres, “Immigration reform advocates target Colorado Republican districts,” Denver Post, July 22, 2013; Allison Sherry, “Hundreds of thousands in outside dollars already pouring in on Rep. Coffman’s race,” Denver Post, July 30, 2013. 123 Allison Sherry, “Two Colorado GOP U.S. representatives differ on immigration reform,” Denver Post, July 23, 2013; Allison Sherry, “Colorado GOP congressmen split on Senate's government funding bill,” Denver Post, October 16, 2014; Kurtis Lee, “Debate over personhood moves into Aurora-based 6th Congressional District,” Denver Post, March 25, 2014. 124 Jon Murray, “Rep. Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff battle for women's support,” Denver Post, September 8, 2014. 125 Jon Murray, “With new ad, Andrew Romanoff intensifies tussle with Mike Coffman,” Denver Post, September 8, 2014; Jon Murray, “Democrats make sure Rep. Mike Coffman won’t forget 1st debate brain freeze,” Denver Post, August 14, 2014. 126 Eli Stokols, “Coffman highlights work on women’s issues in first TV ad,” KDVR, August 26, 2014; Jon Murray, “New Mike Coffman ad decries Andrew Romanoff’s spot,” Denver Post, September 9, 2014. 127 Kristen Wyatt, “Coffman, Romanoff clash on immigration,” Associated Press, October 9, 2014. 128 Eli Stokols, “Coffman, Romanoff square off in Colorado’s first Spanish-language debate,” KDVR, October 30, 2014. 129 Eli Stokols, “Coffman fighting Romanoff for Latinos in competitive, diverse CD-6,” KDVR, September 1, 2014.

into the race with a series of three mailers in October emphasizing Romanoff’s support for school funding.130

For most of the cycle, national political figures saw the race as one of the closest in the country.131 National Democrats such as Hillary Clinton stumped on behalf of Romanoff, while Mitt Romney and John Boehner came to town for Coffman.132 Outside groups spent $9.0 million in the district, led by the two party committees, the NRCC ($3.9 million) and DCCC ($1.9 million).133 However, on October 10, the DCCC pulled out of the race, a reflection of the conventional wisdom that Coffman was opening up a lead.134 Nevertheless, Romanoff was quite capable of continuing the campaign on his own, considering that he raised $4.8 million for the cycle through the third quarter of 2014. Coffman was close behind, with $4.4 million raised.135 Romanoff raised more money than Coffman in each of the final five quarters.136

Perhaps the difference-maker in the campaign was an improved Republican field effort. Romanoff’s campaign made 125,000 voter contacts during a 10-day stretch in October and boasted 1,000 volunteers — numbers benefitting Democrats’ renowned operation. However, Coffman’s campaign had also knocked 200,000 doors by mid-October, and the campaign paid extra attention to Spanish- language outreach.137

There were no public polls of the race, but the Romanoff campaign did release an internal poll on October 14 showing the Democrat just one point behind Coffman (44% to 43%).138 On Election Day, Coffman won by 10.1 points.139

CO-06 2014 Results Registered Total Romanoff Romanoff Coffman Coffman Other Other Voters Voters Votes % Votes % Votes % 485,713 257,150 109,163 42.5% 135,280 52.6% 12,707 4.9% Sources: “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:11 p.m.; “2014 Voter Registration Statistics,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Outside groups began broadcast advertising quite early in the cycle. Coffman was targeted in a League of Conservation Voters ad campaign in summer 2013 that attacked climate-change

130 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/23/14. 131 Rebecca Elliott, “Colorado's 6th could be 2014’s tightest race,” POLITICO, July 29, 2013. 132 Eli Stokols, “Hillary Clinton urges Coloradans to support Udall, Hickenlooper & Romanoff,” KDVR, October 24, 2014; Eli Stokols, “Boehner, Cantor to raise money with Coffman, Lamborn in Colorado Friday,” KDVR, May 15, 2014; Kurtis Lee, “Mitt Romney endorses U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, will raise money for him Tuesday,” Denver Post, May 27, 2014. 133 “Colorado District 06 Race,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed November 5, 2014. 134 Jon Murray, “National Democrats redirect Andrew Romanoff ad money to other races,” Denver Post, October 10, 2014; Jon Murray, “New Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff ads take compare/contrast route,” Denver Post, September 25, 2014. 135 “Colorado District 06 Race,” Center for Responsive Politics, accessed November 5, 2014. 136 Atlas Online Toolkit, Daily News Clips module, accessed 10/22/14. 137 Ernest Luning, “The ground game begins,” Colorado Statesman, October 17, 2014. 138 “Colorado 6th District - Coffman vs. Romanoff,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; Eli Stokols, “Romanoff releases internal poll showing Coffman up one point,” KDVR, October 14, 2014. 139

deniers.140 House Majority PAC briefly went up in July 2013, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce made a pre-primary buy in May 2014. Vote Vets Action Fund also aired all of its 247 spots (costing an estimated $204,480) on behalf of Romanoff immediately after the primary in late June and July.141

The campaigns themselves kicked off the true advertising season, starting with Romanoff on August 4 and Coffman on September 10. Romanoff was the race’s biggest spender, airing 4,201 spots for an estimated $3.4 million. By contrast, Coffman aired 1,663 spots for an estimated $1.5 million.142

Romanoff accounted for most (66.1%) of the Democratic spots aired, but outside groups did their part. From September 23 to October 7, the DCCC aired 891 spots (an estimated $847,350) before handing the baton off to House Majority PAC, which aired 882 spots (an estimated $1.2 million) from October 7 through October 21. On the other hand, a full 65.1% of Republican spots were aired by independent expenditures: 2,419 (costing an estimated $2.2 million) by the NRCC, which began its ad campaign on September 23, and 685 (costing an estimated $520,590) by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.143

In total, progressive forces spent an estimated $5.8 million on 6,355 spots in CO-06; conservative ad spending totaled an estimated $4.3 million for 4,767 spots. All spots were aired in the Denver market.144

CO-06 Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, July 18, 2013 – November 4, 2014

140 John Tomasic, “Colorado Rep. Coffman Targeted by League of Conservation Voters,” Colorado Independent, August 12, 2013. 141 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 142 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 143 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 144 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

CO-06 Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, July 18, 2013 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING Both candidates kicked off their TV advertising with positive ads and later moved to contrast ads.145 In Romanoff’s first ad, “Mountain,” the candidate used slick graphics superimposed over Colorado’s natural beauty to tout his record in the legislature, including balancing budgets.146 His second ad was likewise positive and featured Romanoff explaining his plan to defray the costs of college.147

Coffman’s first ad was also positive but tackled a potential weakness of his: women voters. The ad talked up Coffman’s work against sexual assault in the military and his votes for the Violence Against Women Act and to ban gender discrimination in health care pricing.148 Romanoff responded with two negative ads: one in which a woman named Karen decries Coffman’s record of “working to take away a woman’s right to choose for 25 years” and one that claimed that Coffman blocked paycheck fairness for women.149

The party committees contributed more attack ads to the race. The DCCC continued on the theme of hitting Coffman on women’s health, including supporting the Hobby Lobby Supreme Court decision and opposing abortion even in cases of rape or incest. In turn, the NRCC called Romanoff “extreme” and tagged him with the “tax-and-spend” label.150 Other conservative groups sought to lump Romanoff with unpopular Democrats, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s spots that cast him as an ally of Nancy Pelosi.151 The split reflected each side’s preferred topic in the race: 52% of

145 Jon Murray, “New Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff ads take compare/contrast route,” Denver Post, September 25, 2014. 146 Jon Murray, “Andrew Romanoff airs first candidate TV ad in race against Rep. Mike Coffman,” Denver Post, August 4, 2014. 147 Jon Murray, “Andrew Romanoff, in new TV ad, talks about college costs,” Denver Post, August 21, 2014. 148 Eli Stokols, “Coffman highlights work on women’s issues in first TV ad,” KDVR, August 26, 2014. 149 Jon Murray, “With new ad, Andrew Romanoff intensifies tussle with Mike Coffman,” Denver Post, September 8, 2014; Jon Murray, “Trio of new ads sound off on Mike Coffman, Andrew Romanoff in CD6 race,” Denver Post, October 20, 2014. 150 Jon Murray, “House Democrats and Republicans jump into Coffman-Romanoff race with dueling attack ads,” Denver Post, September 23, 2014. 151 Jon Murray, “Chamber ad plays on Andrew Romanoff’s connections to Nancy Pelosi,” Denver Post, September 16, 2014.

messages that Republicans used related to spending or the economy, while 34% of Democratic messages were on social issues, including women’s rights.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 27% 52% 37% Social Issues 34% 6% 23% Health Care 14% 22% 17% Energy/Environment 9% 3% 7% Other 16% 17% 16% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Spanish-language ads were also prevalent in the race, accounting for 497 spots. House Majority PAC ran Spanish-language ads on immigration in July 2013, while SEIU echoed the same themes in July 2014; both buys targeted Coffman in addition to other western Republicans.152 GOVERNOR

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) was elected governor in 2010 on the strength of a quirky campaign persona and a centrist, nonpartisan image. Hickenlooper started his term as one of the most popular governors in the nation (he had a 60% approval rating in June 2012).153 Rather than follow either party line, he would do things his own way that was hard to pin down ideologically — but it worked, with Colorado going from 40th to fourth in job creation.154 He was also seen as a strong leader of a state that endured multiple disasters during his first term, including the Aurora theater shooting, a series of wildfires, and devastating floods.155

However, Hickenlooper saw his position erode rapidly in 2013 as he lost his postpartisan veneer.156 His support for a tough gun-safety law and other progressive legislation galvanized the Republican base in Colorado against him, and he kicked up controversy when he stayed the execution of murderer Nathan Dunlap in May 2013.157 He was further damaged politically when he spent much of his political capital only to lose three late-2013 elections: the gun-related recalls of Democratic state senators in SD-03 and SD-11 and a ballot measure to raise taxes to fund education.158 Entering 2014, the GOP set about to translate voter anger over these issues to anger directed at Hickenlooper and his re-election campaign.159

152 Allison Sherry, “Hundreds of thousands in outside dollars already pouring in on Rep. Coffman’s race,” Denver Post, July 30, 2013; Seung Min Kim, “Service Employees International Union targets four House Republicans,” POLITICO, July 15, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 153 “Hickenlooper remains one of most popular governors,” Public Policy Polling, 799 registered voters, MoE ±3.5%, June 14–17, 2012. 154 Brandon Rittiman, “Truth Test: Positive, negative ads for Hickenlooper,” KUSA, September 15, 2014; Lynn Bartels, “Hickenlooper a moderate no more? Critics say governor has crossed over,” Denver Post, July 24, 2013. 155 Lynn Bartels, “Hickenlooper shines during crises but will voters care in 2014?”, Denver Post, September 30, 2013. 156 Lynn Bartels, “Hickenlooper a moderate no more? Critics say governor has crossed over,” Denver Post, July 24, 2013. 157 Mark Barabak, “Colorado's governor has Republicans sensing an opportunity,” Los Angeles Times, June 24, 2013. 158 Kurtis Lee, “Gov. Hickenlooper ‘disappointed’ by outcome of recalls of Democrats,” Denver Post, September 11, 2013; Zahira Torres, “Hickenlooper commits to campaign for $950 million school tax hike,” Denver Post, July 18, 2013. 159 Lynn Bartels and Kurtis Lee, “Colorado GOP targets Gov. Hickenlooper in wake of recalls,” Denver Post, September 11, 2013.

PRIMARY By the end of 2013, it was clear Hickenlooper was in danger of losing re-election, as he had a mediocre 48% to 46% approval/disapproval rating, with voters saying 49% to 42% that he did not deserve a second term.160 Ambitious Republicans pounced. Right-wing firebrand and former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, who received 36.4% of the vote against Hickenlooper in 2010 as a third-party candidate, was the first to announce his candidacy.161 But, similar to the U.S. Senate race, a late entrant through the race into uncertainty: another former congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate (this time from 2006), Bob Beauprez.162 Secretary of State Scott Gessler and former state Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp also made the ballot at the April GOP convention.163

A prolific fundraiser, Beauprez became an instant frontrunner in the primary, although he did not clear the field as Cory Gardner did.164 Like Gardner, he immediately changed his position on issues like personhood in an effort to be seen as the electable alternative.165 Establishment Republicans made a concerted effort to keep the nomination away from Tancredo, whose name recognition and loyal fanatics made him a real threat to prevail in a four-way contest. After they failed to entice Tancredo to drop out, prominent Republicans from Mitt Romney to Rick Perry endorsed Beauprez.166 Pro-Beauprez TV and radio ads were ubiquitous in the run-up to the primary — some even allegedly paid for with money from Chris Christie and the supposedly neutral RGA.167 However, those ads were counteracted by a Democratic ad campaign designed to help Tancredo in the primary. Ads from super PAC Protect Colorado Values “attacked” Tancredo as “just too conservative for Colorado.”168 Polls in the weeks before the June 24 primary indicated that the race was between Beauprez and Tancredo, who were running neck and neck.169

When votes were cast, the nomination went to Beauprez, who got 30.2% of the vote to Tancredo’s 26.7%. Gessler received 23.2%, and Kopp received 19.9%.170 Observers credited Beauprez’s win to the late ad blitz by establishment-supported IE groups. In this respect, the Democratic effort to influence the outcome may have backfired, as their ad convinced Republican donors and elites that Beauprez was the candidate Democrats feared most.171

GENERAL Throughout the primary, Hickenlooper stayed above the fray and was able to improve his standing somewhat. Learning from 2013, he announced a much less ambitious — and more bipartisan — 2014 agenda.172 He shifted his focus to jobs and the economy and consolidated his support in the

160 Scott Conroy, “Mixed News for Hickenlooper in Colorado Poll,” Real Clear Politics, November 19, 2013. 161 “Colorado Cumulative Report,” Colorado Secretary of State, May 12, 2011; Kurtis Lee, “Tom Tancredo considering a run for Colorado governor in 2014,” Denver Post, May 15, 2013; Kurtis Lee, “Tom Tancredo formally announces run for governor Thursday on conservative radio,” Denver Post, May 22, 2013. 162 Eli Stokols, “Beauprez will run for Colorado governor,” KDVR, February 28, 2014. 163 Lynn Bartels, “Mike Kopp, Scott Gessler make GOP ballot in Colorado governor's race,” Denver Post, April 12, 2014. 164 Sandra Fish, “Beauprez’s big bucks afford him campaign advantage,” Colorado Independent, March 6, 2014; Lynn Bartels, “Bob Beauprez enters governor's race to dismay of some rivals,” Denver Post, March 4, 2014. 165 “Beauprez clarifies stance on personhood,” KUSA, March 5, 2014. 166 Eli Stokols, “GOP gubernatorial primary: ‘This sucker is wide open’,” KDVR, April 15, 2014; Eli Stokols, “Mitt Romney endorses Bob Beauprez in Colorado governor’s race,” KDVR, May 13, 2014; Brandon Rittiman, “Beauprez snags Rick Perry endorsement,” KUSA, May 20, 2014. 167 Eli Stokols, “Beauprez dominating airwaves as primary voting wraps up,” KDVR, June 19, 2014; Lynn Bartels, “Group: GOP governors association funneled campaign cash to hurt Tancredo,” Denver Post, July 28, 2014. 168 Eli Stokols, “Democrats enter Colo. GOP gubernatorial primary, aim to tip race to Tancredo,” KDVR, June 5, 2014. 169 Eli Stokols, “Magellan poll shows Tancredo and Beauprez atop GOP gubernatorial field,” KDVR, June 3, 2014. 170 “Colorado Election Results,” Colorado Secretary of State, June 24, 2014. 171 Eli Stokols, “Democrats’ ads triggered late GOP spending, boosted Beauprez over listless Tancredo,” KDVR, June 24, 2014. 172 Kurtis Lee and Lynn Bartels, “After ugly year, Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper pushes bipartisanship,” Denver Post, December 19, 2013.

business community.173 Voters went along, as well, as Hickenlooper’s favorability rating bumped up in the polls to 51% to 37%.174 He was also raising money at a furious rate, outpacing not just Beauprez, but the entire Republican primary field combined in total fundraising.175 (In total for the four-year cycle, Hickenlooper raised $5.2 million, while Beauprez raised $1.6 million, not including $844,000 in loans from himself.)176

However, over the summer, his rebranding was hijacked as other issues forced themselves back into the picture. At a meeting of the County Sheriffs of Colorado, Hickenlooper made cryptic comments on 2013’s gun-safety bill that managed to anger both the left and the right. Hickenlooper claimed he only signed the bill because his “staff made a commitment” and that he regretted signing it without consulting the sheriffs and getting all the facts.177 Then Hickenlooper suggested he might grant full clemency to Nathan Dunlap if he lost the election.178 Finally, he found himself caught in the middle of a dispute over local control of fracking. The governor eventually brokered a compromise that kept an anti-fracking initiative off the 2014 ballot, but he angered both sides in the process.179 To make matters worse, the governor’s attempt to reclaim the middle ground on issues was spun as him being weak and indecisive.180

Despite the criticism, Hickenlooper stuck with the personality-based strategy that had gotten him this far. He got substantial free media coverage when he played banjo with the band Old Crow Medicine Show and was endorsed by the frontman of OneRepublic.181 The former mayor of Denver also adopted a decidedly mayoral style of campaigning, showing up at local ribbon-cuttings and events in his official capacity, earning plenty of local media.182 Hickenlooper also made no attempt to distance himself from President Obama. In fact, one of the campaign’s defining images was of Hickenlooper and Obama’s impromptu joint appearance at a Denver brewpub that Hickenlooper founded before entering politics.183 A game of pool between the two leaders went viral and inspired a series of TV ads from both sides.184

Meanwhile, progressives sought to define Beauprez by attacking him for his past radical comments: one in which Beauprez raised questions over President Obama’s birth certificate, and another in which Beauprez echoed Mitt Romney’s allegation that 47% of Americans pay no income tax.185 Beauprez generated controversy with gaffes during the campaign, such as saying governors should take matters into their own hands on enforcing immigration restrictions.186 Beauprez also alienated women voters in a debate when he claimed that the IUD birth-control device actually causes abortions.187

The final days of the campaign revolved around the issue of crime. Beauprez again raised the issue of Hickenlooper’s stay of execution for Nathan Dunlap, and the RGA falsely claimed Hickenlooper

173 Jennifer Oldham, “Republican CEOs Back Colorado’s Hickenlooper Amid Gun Backlash,” Bloomberg News, February 18, 2014. 174 Lynn Bartels, “Gov. Hickenlooper beats all four GOP rivals in latest Quinnipiac poll,” Denver Post, April 23, 2014. 175 Lynn Bartels, “Hickenlooper fundraising passes $3 million mark,” Denver Post, July 1, 2014. 176 “TRACER,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. 177 Kurtis Lee, “Hickenlooper silent on gun law comments; supporters and foes baffled,” Denver Post, June 20, 2014. 178 Jesse Paul, “Hickenlooper suggests granting clemency to Nathan Dunlap in interview,” Denver Post, August 25, 2014. 179 Mark Jaffe, “Hickenlooper compromise keeps oil and gas measures off Colorado ballot,” Denver Post, August 4, 2014; Kurtis Lee and Mark Jaffe, “Hickenlooper pushes oil and gas compromise bill, says ‘both sides are furious’,” Denver Post, June 10, 2014. 180 Lynn Bartels and Joey Bunch, “Hickenlooper's popular quirky image now under fire,” Denver Post, June 29, 2014. 181 “WATCH: Gov. Hickenlooper sings with Old Crow Medicine Show at Red Rocks,” KDVR, July 17, 2014; Joey Bunch, “John Hickenlooper strikes a chord with OneRepublic frontman Ryan Tedder,” Denver Post, August 14, 2014. 182 “Governor Celebrates Completion of I-25 Expansion Project,” KKTV, November 1, 2014; “Governor Hickenlooper attends Veterans in Piping graduation Ceremony,” KOAA, July 9, 2014. 183 Steve Holland, “Obama Escaped D.C. To Shoot Pool And Drink Beer With Colorado's Governor,” Reuters, July 8, 2014. 184 Joey Bunch, “John Hickenlooper hits back nicely at GOP’s shot at his pool playing,” Denver Post, August 28, 2014. 185 Eli Stokols, “Dems unearth Beauprez ‘birther’ comments from 2010,” KDVR, March 30, 2014; Joey Bunch and Kurtis Lee, “Democrats decry Beauprez's "47 percent" comments recorded on video,” Denver Post, July 2, 2014. 186 Joey Bunch, “Bob Beauprez draws criticism for border remarks,” Denver Post, August 27, 2014. 187 John Frank, “Bob Beauprez's IUD remark in debate generates controversy,” Denver Post, October 1, 2014.

would set the killer free.188 Beauprez himself perpetuated the notion that Hickenlooper disregarded public safety with an ad that claimed Hickenlooper released criminal Evan Ebel from prison, leading directly to a double murder.189 However, family members of both Dunlap’s and Ebel’s victims cried out against the politicization of the tragedies. Amid the backlash, Beauprez edited his Ebel ad, and Hickenlooper’s campaign attempted to have the RGA ad pulled from the air.190

The RGA was only one of the outside groups heavily involved in the race. The DGA-supported Making Colorado Great had spent over $4.6 million through October 27.191 Organized labor also furthered the cause, such as the anti-Beauprez mail piece distributed by the Colorado AFL-CIO.192 The negative tone of both sides’ outside groups glaringly contrasted with Hickenlooper’s oft-repeated pledge to run a positive campaign, and Beauprez slammed him for having it both ways despite Hickenlooper’s inability to control — or even communicate with — IE messaging.193

Although early polls showed Coloradans split on their opinions of Hickenlooper, they also had the governor ahead of the squabbling GOP primary field by healthy (10 points or so) margins. However, once Beauprez won the primary — coinciding with the summertime bad press for Hickenlooper — they pulled into a virtual tie in the polling average. The race was extremely close for the rest of the cycle, as polls regularly alternated between showing Beauprez ahead or Hickenlooper ahead. Eight polls even showed straight-up ties. The final four polls of the cycle included two exact ties, one two- point Hickenlooper lead, and one two-point Beauprez lead. The polls turned out to be quite accurate, as the race was too close to call until Wednesday morning.194

Colorado Governor 2014 Public Polling

188 Eli Stokols, “RGA’s tough but inaccurate Dunlap ad may be pulled off the air,” KDVR, October 27, 2014. 189 Brandon Rittiman, “UPDATE: Beauprez campaign changes ad amid criticism,” KUSA, October 23, 2014. 190 Brandon Rittiman, “UPDATE: Beauprez campaign changes ad amid criticism,” KUSA, October 23, 2014; Eli Stokols, “RGA’s tough but inaccurate Dunlap ad may be pulled off the air,” KDVR, October 27, 2014. 191 “TRACER,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. 192 Atlas Online Toolkit, Activity Reports module, accessed 10/26/14. 193 Eli Stokols, “Beauprez: ‘Hickpocrisy’ for governor not to disavow new Democratic attack ad,” KDVR, October 9, 2014. 194 “Democrat John Hickenlooper wins governor race in Colorado,” Associated Press, November 5, 2014.

Colorado Governor Polling Accuracy Hickenlooper Pollster Dates Sample Beauprez % % NBC News/Marist 10/18–10/22 755 LVs 46% 41% Rasmussen (R) 10/21–10/23 966 LVs 47% 49% YouGov 10/25–10/31 1417 LVs 44% 42% Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/27–10/29 618 LVs 46% 46% Quinnipiac 10/28–11/2 815 LVs 43% 45% PPP (D) 11/1–11/2 739 LVs 46% 46% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 45.3% 44.8% Final Results N/A N/A 48.7% 46.7% Difference N/A N/A 3.4% 1.9% Sources: “Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.

When all the votes were counted, it was Hickenlooper who was still standing, defeating Beauprez by two points in one of the cycle’s closest gubernatorial races. Hickenlooper won the race at the margins — running just barely ahead of Udall among men, with white voters, and in the Denver suburbs — as he refused to cede the political center. At the same time, however, the events of the campaign made it clear that Beauprez could never live up to being the moderate candidate the GOP establishment thought they were getting in the primary.

Colorado Governor 2014 Results Registered Total Hickenlooper Hickenlooper Beauprez Beauprez Other Other Voters Voters Votes % Votes % Votes % 3,659,503 1,935,058 941,510 48.7% 903,934 46.7% 89,614 4.6% Sources: “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; “2014 Voter Registration Statistics,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 30, 2014.

Paid media in the governor’s race was almost exclusively the domain of the two candidates and the two gubernatorial party committees. Hickenlooper’s campaign aired 4,678 spots for an estimated $2.5 million, going up on September 9 and not letting up until Election Day. Making Colorado Great, the outside group set up in part by the DGA, started even earlier (September 4) and was even more prolific (5,282 spots for $4.7 million). Inspire Colorado and the Democratic Party of Colorado also made small broadcast buys.195

The RGA kicked off the general-election advertising from August 19 through September 15. The Beauprez campaign then took over for good starting September 17 (although the RGA also returned to the airwaves from September 30 through October 21 and then again from October 24 through Election Day). The Beauprez campaign ran a total of 1,738 post-primary spots for an estimated $1.2

million. The RGA spent an estimated $2.1 million on 2,633 spots. The NRA Political Victory Fund also chipped in 199 spots for an estimated $112,820.196

Overall, during the general election, progressives spent an estimated $7.4 million on 10,221 broadcast spots, while conservatives could muster only 4,570 spots for an estimated $3.4 million. In such a close race, this may have made the difference for Hickenlooper. Progressive spots were divided evenly between the coordinated campaign (47.1%) and outside groups (52.9%), while 62.0% of the conservative spot count was by IE groups.197 Interestingly, conservatives also aired 43.0% of their spots in the Colorado Springs media market — home to just 16.9% of registered voters but a Republican stronghold. Progressives aired 56.7% of their spots in the Denver market, home of 77.7% of registered voters, including most Democrats.198

Colorado Governor Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, June 25 – November 4, 2014

196 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 197 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 198 Atlas Online Toolkit, Voter Registration module, accessed 10/26/14; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Colorado Governor Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, June 25 – November 4, 2014

However, it is important to note that conservatives enjoyed more airtime than these figures indicate thanks to a campaign-finance loophole. In October, a court ruled that Citizens United did not have to disclose its donors for an anti-Hickenlooper documentary called “Rocky Mountain Heist.”199 The one- hour film premiered Saturday, October 18, and producers planned to air it 20 times before the election with the aim of reaching 1.8 million households.200 Citizens United also spent $210,000 on TV and online ads to promote the movie.201

MESSAGING

The RGA and DGA brought an exclusively negative tone to the Colorado governor’s race. Neither the RGA nor Making Colorado Great aired a single positive ad all year. Overall, 47.7% of post- primary progressive ads were negative, but a whopping 86.7% of post-primary conservative ads were.202

In contrast, the candidates aired almost all of the positive ads seen by voters — most notably Hickenlooper, who stubbornly stuck to his brand of upbeat and memorable commercials.203 His best spot of the cycle featured Hickenlooper asking for campaign advice from an unseen “trusted advisor” — who turns out to be his son.204 It was one of multiple Hickenlooper ads asking voters to judge Hickenlooper on his excellent economic record, such as the fact that Colorado had gone from 40th

199 Joey Bunch, “Citizens United can make movie without disclosing donors, court says,” Denver Post, October 14, 2014. 200 Joey Bunch, “TV times set for “Rocky Mountain Heist,” ProgressNow films reply,” Denver Post, October 16, 2014. 201 Joey Bunch, “Citizens United given go-ahead to run ads for "Rocky Mountain Heist’,” Denver Post, October 20, 2014. 202 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 203 Chris Cillizza, “Why politicians should NEVER make a ‘no negative ads’ pledge,” Washington Post, October 13, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 204 Jon Murray, “Finally! A quirky campaign ad for Gov. John Hickenlooper,” Denver Post, October 17, 2014.

to fourth in job creation.205 Hickenlooper also showcased his leadership and the recovery made in the aftermath of 2013’s destructive flooding.206

The RGA spent much of its money trying to undermine Hickenlooper’s likeable image. One commercial mocked Hickenlooper by depicting an unflattering actor portrayal of the “making-of” of one of his spots.207 They went harder and darker in other spots, including on the death penalty.208 The grand finale of the RGA’s media blitz was a controversial ad excoriating Hickenlooper for his about-face on the death penalty. The ad featured the father of one of Nathan Dunlap’s victims calling Hickenlooper a “coward.”209 However, polling indicated that the death-penalty issue was not a major consideration for the vast majority of voters.210

Two of the most devastating spots were Making Colorado Great’s attacks on Beauprez regarding his banking past and position on abortion. The first ad to air was the banking one: it explained how Beauprez went to Congress only to vote on deregulating banks like his, allowing him to profit off innocent Coloradans.211 The abortion ad was one of the DGA’s closing arguments and compared the gubernatorial race to a woman running an actual race. As the narrator highlights Beauprez’s support for banning abortions and defunding Planned Parenthood, the race is framed as “the one Colorado women can’t afford to lose.”212

Because progressives dominated the airwaves in the governor’s race, the most-used messages in the race were Democratic priorities: the economy and women’s health. A full 64% of Republican messages did not fit in the top four overall issues; these included topics like public safety and guns.

Top Issues in Partisan Messaging Issue Democrat Republican Total Economy 57% 16% 47% Social Issues 16% 0% 12% Immigration 2% 20% 6% Energy/Environment 8% 0% 6% Other 17% 64% 28% Source: CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

205 Brandon Rittiman, “Truth Test: Positive, negative ads for Hickenlooper,” KUSA, September 15, 2014; Jon Murray, “Finally! A quirky campaign ad for Gov. John Hickenlooper,” Denver Post, October 17, 2014. 206 Eli Stokols, “Hickenlooper’s latest TV ad focuses on Colorado’s recovery from floods, recession,” KDVR, September 30, 2014. 207 Eli Stokols, “RGA and DGA release dueling TV ads, prompting Hickenlooper to go on air early,” KDVR, September 4, 2014. 208 Joey Bunch, “Republican Governors advertise John Hickenlooper’s news on the death penalty,” Denver Post, September 2, 2014. 209 Lynn Bartels, “Father whose daughter was killed by Nathan Dunlap stars in ad targeting Hickenlooper,” Denver Post, October 26, 2014. 210 Jon Murray, “Poll: Death penalty not major factor for Colorado voters,” Denver Post, September 11, 2014. 211 Joey Bunch, “Pro-Hickenlooper group makes Bob Beauprez’s bank record a prime interest,” Denver Post, September 4, 2014. 212 John Frank, “Democrats hit Beauprez on abortion in major TV ad,” Denver Post, October 9, 2014.

Hickenlooper ran only a few points ahead of Udall statewide, but it was enough to win several key counties. Most importantly, Hickenlooper carried Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson by margins in the mid-single digits. He also matched Obama’s 2012 performance with 74.1% in Denver County. His strength in metro Denver helped make up for subpar performances in Boulder, where at 67.8% he actually ran behind Udall, and in El Paso (33.6% performance).213

During the campaign, Hickenlooper was criticized for forsaking the interests of rural Colorado. The raise in renewable-energy standards passed during the 2013 legislative session was seen as hitting rural energy cooperatives especially hard, and rural residents were especially bitter about the new gun-safety law.214 In 2013, five rural counties — Kit Carson, Washington, Phillips, Cheyenne and Yuma — symbolically voted for the county to explore secession from Colorado.215 These counties were among Beauprez’s best in 2014.216

However, Hickenlooper did devote time and energy to patching up his relationships with other rural counties. He was praised for his response to devastating floods that hit 24 counties.217 Hickenlooper did particularly well in some of the affected areas, such as Larimer County (Hickenlooper 50.1%, Beauprez 44.9%) and Broomfield County (51.0% to 44.4%), where he nearly matched his 2010 performance.218

Hickenlooper 2014 Performance by County

213 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/5/14. 214 “Colorado governor says secession vote strengthened state,” Associated Press, December 4, 2013. 215 Monte Whaley, “51st state question answered ‘no’ in 6 of 11 counties contemplating secession,” Denver Post, November 5, 2013. 216 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 217 Kurtis Lee, “For Gov. Hickenlooper, Colorado flood recovery offers re-election benefits,” Denver Post, December 12, 2013. 218 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 11/5/14.

Republicans’ media blitz in the Colorado Springs-Pueblo media market paid dividends with a strong 58.3%-to-36.3% performance there. However, they were forced to make a tradeoff with the Denver market, where Hickenlooper got the most views — and votes. He won the market by a healthy 52.2%-to-43.4% margin, sufficient to win the state.219 OTHER CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES

Other than governor and lieutenant governor, three constitutional offices were on the ballot in 2014: attorney general, secretary of state, and treasurer. All were somewhat competitive. Republican Attorney General John Suthers was term-limited out of office, but Republican Cynthia Coffman emerged as the favorite to replace him, and she beat Democrat Don Quick 52.2% to 41.7%.220 For treasurer, former congresswoman Betsy Markey (D) kept it close with incumbent Walker Stapleton (R), but she ultimately lost, 50.5% to 44.4%.221 Finally, secretary of state was an office Democrats badly wanted to win after four years of outgoing Republican Scott Gessler’s conservative activism in the office.

SECRETARY OF STATE One of the state’s most controversial politicians, Scott Gessler earned a national reputation as one of the country’s most activist Republican secretaries of state.222 In 2011, Gessler re-codified the state’s campaign finance laws in a way that promoted a partisan agenda; progressive organizations had to sue to prevent him from raising the financial-disclosure threshold for political committees from $200 to $5,000.223 His zealous but largely baseless mission to purge non-citizens from voter rolls raised concerns about voter disenfranchisement or suppressed turnout among Hispanics when his office mailed letters to thousands of voters questioning their citizenship ahead of the 2012 election.224 Gessler also stood in the way of mail voting, prohibiting county clerks from mailing ballots to inactive voters in 2012 and opposing the new election reform law in 2013.225 Gessler’s downfall began when he was found guilty of violating state ethics laws by using state funds improperly for political purposes.226 Well into a run for governor at the time, Gessler limped to a third-place finish in the Republican primary.227

Meanwhile, candidates from both parties geared up to run for the open seat. Democrat Joe Neguse, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents, announced his candidacy in June 2013 at a rally alongside much of the Colorado Democratic establishment, emphasizing the importance of the race.228 Neguse, the millennial son of Eritrean refugees, was also seen as a rising star in the

219 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 220 Lynn Bartels, “Today is John Suthers Day,” Denver Post, October 21, 2014; Louis Jacobson, “The Race for Attorney General Tightens Up in 9 States,” Governing, October 2, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 221 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 222 “Secretary of State Scott Gessler: Left doesn’t care about voter fraud,” Denver Post, October 5, 2012. 223 Sara Burnett, “Secretary of State Scott Gessler rewrites Colorado campaign finance rules,” Denver Post, February 23, 2012; “Colorado Common Cause and Colorado Ethics Watch v. Scott Gessler, Colorado Secretary of State,” Colorado Court of Appeals, accessed January 15, 2013. 224 Tim Hoover, “Noncitizen voters ID’s fraction of those first alleged by Gessler,” Denver Post, September 16, 2012; “Most Suspected Ineligible Voters US Citizens,” CBS Denver, August 29, 2012. 225 Robert Barnes, “Scott Gessler, Colorado’s ‘honey badger,’ may be closest-watched election official,” Washington Post, September 20, 2012; Joey Bunch, “Recall elections put heat on Secretary of State Scott Gessler to run system he fought,” Denver Post, July 10, 2013. 226 Lynn Bartels, “Scott Gessler loses appeal over ethics ruling,” Denver Post, March 12, 2014. 227 “Colorado Election Results,” Colorado Secretary of State, June 24, 2014. 228 Eli Stokols, “Democratic establishment cheers Joe Neguse’s political launch,” KDVR, June 25, 2013.

party.229 El Paso County Clerk Wayne Williams inspired similar support on the Republican side after announcing his own bid in 2013.230 Neguse and Williams went unopposed in the primary, setting the stage for a competitive general election.231

Williams sought to distance himself from Gessler, saying that, as a former county clerk, he would work to improve relations between clerks and the secretary of state’s office.232 However, Neguse attempted to tie Williams, a former GOP county chairman, to Gessler and the Republican Party establishment, saying he would not bring an impartial perspective to the office.233 While both candidates professed to value voting rights above all else, the race turned on the usual partisan differences over voter ID (Williams supported it, while Neguse was opposed) and Colorado’s new election reform law (Neguse supported it, while Williams was opposed).234 Williams invited criticism after he explained he opposed vote by mail because “there might be someone in the household, a union boss, an employer, who intimidates them once they get that ballot” — a claim even the FOX News anchor interviewing him questioned.235 In contrast, Neguse said the law was a crucial step toward the goal of making voting more accessible to all, especially older voters and minorities.236

Perhaps in part due to his compelling biography, Neguse well outraised Williams for the cycle. As of October 27, he had taken in $517,179, while Williams had raised $244,112.237 Nevertheless, polls throughout the cycle consistently showed Williams leading the race, albeit with a high level of undecided voters.238 Williams’s five-point lead in the polling average ended up just over a point off the final result.

Colorado Secretary of State 2014 Public Polling

229 “Joe Neguse for Colorado secretary of state,” Denver Post, October 15, 2014; Eli Stokols, “Democratic establishment cheers Joe Neguse’s political launch,” KDVR, June 25, 2013. 230 Joey Bunch, “Preseason for next year’s secretary of state’s race is officially underway as Williams name endorsers,” Denver Post, November 20, 2013. 231 “Colorado Election Results,” Colorado Secretary of State, June 24, 2014. 232 Peter Marcus, “Williams hopes to succeed fellow Republican Gessler for Secretary of State,” Colorado Statesman, April 13, 2014. 233 Joey Bunch, “Turnout may determine Williams-Neguse race,” Denver Post, October 28, 2014. 234 Rich Laden, “Colorado Secretary of State candidates focused on voting rights,” Colorado Springs Gazette, October 17, 2014. 235 Joey Bunch, “Secretary of state candidate: Beware the household union boss,” Denver Post, October 30, 2014. 236 Joey Bunch, “Turnout may determine Williams-Neguse race,” Denver Post, October 28, 2014. 237 “TRACER,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed November 5, 2014. 238 Atlas Online Toolkit, Polling & Media Charts module, accessed 10/21/14.

Colorado Secretary of State Polling Accuracy Pollster Dates Sample Neguse % Williams % Gravis Marketing (R) 9/16–9/17 657 LVs 39% 43% PPP (D) 10/16–10/19 778 LVs 31% 36% Suffolk University/USA Today 10/18–10/21 500 LVs 28% 35% Denver Post/SurveyUSA 10/27–10/29 618 LVs 39% 43% Average N/A N/A 34.3% 39.3% Final Results N/A N/A 44.3% 48.1% Difference N/A N/A +10.1% +8.9% Sources: Atlas Online Toolkit, Charts module, accessed 11/5/14; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.

As expected, Williams won the election, 48.1% to 44.3%.239 This continued Colorado’s streak of not electing a Democrat as secretary of state since 1954.240

Colorado Secretary of State 2014 Results Registered Total Neguse Neguse Williams Williams Other Other Voters Voters Votes % Votes % Votes % 3,659,503 1,868,218 828,314 44.3% 899,350 48.1% 140,554 7.5% Sources: “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; “2014 Voter Registration Statistics,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 30, 2014.

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

Although three super PACs focusing on secretary of state races had signaled their intention to get involved, the only broadcast advertising for the race was by the campaigns.241 Williams went up on TV on October 6 (though he dropped off the air entirely by October 27), and Neguse followed on October 13 (he was able to air ads straight through the election). In total, Neguse spent an estimated $313,040 on 518 spots, and Williams spent an estimated $100,610 on 86 spots. All of Williams’s ads aired in the Denver market, while, in a role reversal for Colorado partisan media strategies, Neguse placed 34.2% of his spots in Colorado Springs-Pueblo, with the remainder in Denver.242

239 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 240 Joey Bunch, “Turnout may determine Williams-Neguse race,” Denver Post, October 28, 2014. 241 Joey Bunch, “Big money targets Colorado's secretary of state race,” Denver Post, May 16, 2014. 242 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

Colorado Secretary of State Broadcast-Media Spot Counts, June 25 – November 4, 2014

Colorado Secretary of State Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending, June 25 – November 4, 2014

MESSAGING Only three commercials were aired, and the candidates focused on positive ads that explained their backgrounds and worldviews. Neguse emphasized how he would be a fair secretary of state, while Williams touted his experience running elections in El Paso County.243

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

To win statewide in Colorado, successful Democrats must run up the score in liberal Denver (at least 70%) and Boulder (at least 68%) and win the bellwether counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Adams. However, they must also hold down Republican margins in El Paso County, a major Republican stronghold — and the failure to do that appears to have doomed Neguse. Williams may have won solely based on his strength in his home base of El Paso, where he was county clerk. He took the county 64.9% to 27.4%. This overwhelmed any advantage Neguse gained by winning the bellwether suburban counties of Denver, including Adams and Broomfield. Neguse trailed by only a few hundred votes in Jefferson. Neguse received a workable 69.8% of the vote in Denver, but he disappointed somewhat in Boulder, with 65.9%.244

Neguse 2014 Performance by County

243 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 244 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.

STATE LEGISLATURE

The 2013 legislative session, which saw the passage of major progressive legislation like a strong gun-safety law, inspired Colorado Republicans to fiercely contest the state’s legislative elections. In summer 2013, conservative activists mobilized angry voters in Colorado Springs, Pueblo and the Denver suburbs to force recall elections for two Democratic state senators. On September 10, 2013, Senate President John Morse (SD-11) and state Senator Angela Giron (SD-03) were defeated in close, bitter elections that drew millions of dollars in outside spending.245

The recall results were interpreted as a referendum on gun control and, more broadly, Democratic rule over a state with a historically conservative tradition.246 Republicans immediately set about to replicate the SD-03 and SD-11 models in other swing legislative districts, and the Colorado Senate took its place among Democrats’ most vulnerable legislatures nationwide.247 In an October 2014 PPP poll, Republicans led the generic legislative ballot 48% to 40%.248

STATE SENATE After the recall elections, Democrats had only an 18–17 majority in the Colorado state Senate, and they took that one-seat margin into the November 2014 elections.249 Eighteen of the Senate’s 35 seats were on the ballot in 2014, 10 of which were held by Republicans and eight of which were held by Democrats.250 Of the 18 races, six involved no incumbent, as term limits forced two Democrats and three Republicans into retirement, while one Republican (state Senator Steve King in SD-07) chose not to run again due to scandal.251

Eight of the Senate seats on the ballot — mostly in suburban areas — were seriously contested. Most were Democratic seats, including SD-05, SD-16, SD-19, SD-20, SD-22 and SD-24. However, Democrats did have pickup opportunities in the GOP-held SD-03 and SD-11, which were occupied by Democrats before the 2013 recalls.252

Republican chances of flipping the chamber took a hit on the June 24 primary, when Laura Woods and Tony Sanchez won the Republican nominations in two Jefferson County swing seats, SD-19 and SD-22 respectively. Rocky Mountain Gun Owners, a far-right group behind the 2013 recalls, worked hard for Woods and Sanchez and baselessly lambasted their establishment opponents as anti-gun.253 When the Republican Party’s preferred, more moderate candidates lost, some GOP operatives openly — though ultimately inaccurately — predicted that Woods and Sanchez could not win in famously middle-of-the-road Jefferson County.254

Outside groups were active in state Senate races. In SD-05, groups like Mainstream Colorado and the Conservation Colorado Expenditure Committee spent money in addition to the six figures raised

245 “Atlas Analysis: Explaining Colorado,” The Atlas Project, September 11, 2013; “A Crash Course On The Colorado Recalls,” The Atlas Project, September 10, 2013. 246 Amy Walter, “What Can the Colorado Recall Tell Us About 2014?”, Cook Political Report, September 18, 2013. 247 “Gun Control Debate Far From Over In Colorado,” Associated Press, November 19, 2013. 248 “Races for Governor, Senate Remain Close in Colorado,” Public Policy Polling, 778 likely voters, MoE ±3.5%, October 16–19, 2014. 249 “2014 State and Legislative Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, June 9, 2014. 250 “2014 General Election Official Candidate List,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 21, 2014; “Senate Members,” Colorado General Assembly, accessed October 21, 2014. 251 “Term limit information for members of the Colorado state Senate,” Colorado Legislative Council, accessed May 22, 2013; “Colorado Ethics Watch calls for State Sen. King to resign,” KDVR, July 31, 2014. 252 Ivan Moreno, “Parties vie for control of Colorado Legislature,” Associated Press, November 4, 2014. 253 John Aguilar, “2 Jeffco GOP primary battles could dictate control of Colorado Senate,” Denver Post, June 8, 2014. 254 Eli Stokols and Will Holden, “Sanchez, Woods run the table in Jefferson County state senate primaries,” KDVR, June 24, 2014.

by Democrat Kerry Donovan and Republican Don Suppes.255 Americans for Prosperity aired an ad on non-broadcast TV in Jefferson County attacking Democratic state Senators Jeanne Nicholson (SD-16), Cheri Jahn (SD-20) and Andy Kerr (SD-22) on Obamacare.256 In turn, the Democratic Senate Campaign Fund tied the Republican candidates in SD-16, SD-19, SD-20 and SD-22 to controversial Jefferson County school board members in a cable TV ad.257

It was not until days after the election that full results came in, as many of the races were razor-close and ballot counting proceeded slowly in Jefferson and Adams Counties. However, Republicans believed they had netted the one seat they needed for a majority.258 While Democrats successfully recaptured the two seats they had lost in the 2013 recalls (SD-03 and SD-11), Republicans picked up SD-16 and SD-19 to wipe out the buffer.259 Although Democrats appeared to have held onto SD- 05, SD-20, and SD-22, Republican Beth Martinez Humenik was still leading by 852 votes (with 5,000 left to count) over Democrat Judy Solano in SD-24 on Friday. Winning the seat would give the GOP an 18–17 Senate majority.260

STATE HOUSE Going into the election, Democrats knew that their 37–28 majority in the state House was in less danger than the state Senate, despite the fact that all 65 seats in the chamber were up for election.261 However, it was not until after a few days of suspense that Republicans conceded they would not pick up the chamber on Friday, November 7, even though not all races had yet been called.262 To take control, Republicans needed to win four of the five districts that were the last to be called; Democrats held a 31–29 lead in called races.263 The writing appeared to be on the wall when Daniel Kagan (D) defeated Candice Benge (R) in HD-03 and Su Ryden (D) defeated Richard Bowman (R) in HD-36 — despite J. Paul Brown’s (R) apparent victory in HD-59 over Mike McLachlan (D). As of Friday, Republicans led in the HD-30 contest between Jenise May (D) and JoAnn Windholz (R) as well as HD-31 between Joe Salazar (D) and Carol Beckler (R), but the final outcomes remained uncertain.264 The closeness of those two races came as a surprise to Democrats and political observers alike, as they were not expected to be competitive.265 If the GOP leads, Democrats would have only a 33–32 majority in the state House.

The race in HD-59 in southwest Colorado was especially intense, with conservative outside group Colorado Citizens for Accountable Government spending heavily in support of the Republican Brown. Progressive group Priorities for Colorado supported incumbent McLachlan with broadcast TV ads and an aggressive mail campaign.266 On Friday, it appeared that Brown had defeated McLachlan by just 200 votes.267 Another competitive race was in HD-17, where state Rep. Tony Exum (D) was defeated for re-election to account for the final Republican gain.268

255 Marci Krivonen, “Colorado Senate District Five: A ‘Pivotal Race’,” Aspen Public Radio, October 1, 2014. 256 Kurtis Lee, “AFP attacks state Democrats on bipartisan 2011 health care exchange law,” Denver Post, July 8, 2014. 257 Eli Stokols, “Democrats’ TV ad ties JeffCo GOP state senate to conservative school board,” KDVR, October 8, 2014. 258 Lynn Bartels, “Colorado Senate control hinges on ballot counting in Adams, Jeffco,” Denver Post, November 5, 2014. 259 Eli Stokols, “Democrats poised to hold Colorado House majority; GOP may take back Senate,” KDVR, November 6, 2014. 260 John Aguilar, “Control of Colorado Senate down to one seat in Adams County,” Denver Post, November 6, 2014. 261 “2014 State and Legislative Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, June 9, 2014. 262 John Aguilar, “Colorado GOP concedes majority in state House to Democrats,” Denver Post, November 7, 2014. 263 John Aguilar, “Mystery over control of Colorado statehouse persists,” Denver Post, November 6, 2014; John Aguilar, “Colorado House majority balance remains uncertain with tight races,” Denver Post, November 5, 2014. 264 John Aguilar, “Colorado GOP concedes majority in state House to Democrats,” Denver Post, November 7, 2014. 265 Eli Stokols, “Democrats poised to hold Colorado House majority; GOP may take back Senate,” KDVR, November 6, 2014. 266 Peter Marcus, “Mailers flood race for House,” Durango Herald, October 17, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 267 John Aguilar, “Colorado GOP concedes majority in state House to Democrats,” Denver Post, November 7, 2014. 268 Eli Stokols, “Democrats poised to hold Colorado House majority; GOP may take back Senate,” KDVR, November 6, 2014.

CONSEQUENCES During the 2014 legislative session, even when they were in the minority, Republicans attempted to repeal the 2013 gun-safety law.269 If they take control of the state Senate, Republicans — many of whom credit the Second Amendment–centric grassroots for their election — will likely make this a top priority in 2015.270 Another progressive accomplishment from 2013, the elections-reform law, is also detested by Republicans, who unanimously voted against it when it passed the Senate.271 Republicans may attempt to undermine the bill, curtailing voting hours or imposing restrictions on voter rights similar to GOP legislators in other states. Finally, having been thwarted three times at the ballot box, conservatives may make a move to restrict abortion rights.272 However, in all these cases, it is unlikely any major conservative legislation would go far, with the Democratic state House and Governor John Hickenlooper likely to block it.

One area where Hickenlooper and Republican legislators could find common ground is on energy. Hickenlooper, a former geologist, supports fracking and clashed with Democratic legislators during the 2013 session who wanted to impose stricter regulations on the industry.273 In 2015, a task force studying how to balance local concerns with fracking interests will make recommendations to the legislature, potentially making energy one of the biggest subjects of the session.274 Republicans may also clamor to repeal tougher renewable-energy standards that they say are hurting rural cooperatives. Environmental and anti-fracking forces will need to be vigilant for action on these fronts in 2015.

Finally, the wave of new Republican senators will loom large in 2018, when they are next up for election. That cycle will be Democrats’ last chance to take those seats before the legislature considers redistricting in 2021.275

269 Lance Hernandez, “Republican bill to repeal new Colorado background checks on firearm sales fails,” KMGH, February 2, 2014. 270 Eli Stokols and Will Holden, “Sanchez, Woods run the table in Jefferson County state senate primaries,” KDVR, June 24, 2014. 271 Peter Marcus, “Democratic-backed elections reform bill heads to Guv,” Colorado Statesman, May 6, 2013. 272 Amanda Marcotte, “Colorado Says No to Personhood for the Third Time,” Slate, November 4, 2014. 273 Eli Stokols, “Colorado’s historic 2013 legislative session in review,” KDVR, May 9, 2013. 274 Ivan Moreno, “Control of Colorado Legislature in the balance,” Associated Press, November 5, 2014. 275 Joey Bunch, “Secretary of state candidate: Beware the household union boss,” Denver Post, October 30, 2014; “Colorado,” All About Redistricting, accessed November 5, 2014.