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2014 Post-Election Analysis: Colorado

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2014 Post-Election Analysis: Colorado 2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: COLORADO TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 4 Turnout Analysis 5 Absentee/Early Voting 6 Regional Analysis 7 Election Law Impacts 7 Exit Polling 8 U.S. SENATE 12 Media Spending Analysis 16 Geographic Analysis 19 CONGRESS 20 CO-06 21 GOVERNOR 25 Primary 26 General 26 Media Spending Analysis 29 Geographic Analysis 32 OTHER CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES 34 Secretary of State 34 STATE LEGISLATURE 39 State Senate 39 State House 40 Consequences 41 STATE OVERVIEW The year 2013 brought a political earthquake to Colorado. Fresh off a 5.4-point Obama win in 2012 and buttressed by popular incumbents like Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Mark Udall, Colorado Democrats set out to put their political capital to work.1 During the 2013 legislative session, Democrats passed a major voting-reform law, raised the renewable-energy standard, and implemented one of the country’s strongest gun-safety measures; a few weeks later, Hickenlooper spared the life of convicted murderer Nathan Dunlap with a stay of execution.2 As much as these actions thrilled progressives, however, they angered and mobilized conservatives. Where he had previously been seen as an idiosyncratic consensus-builder, Hickenlooper quickly became a polarizing figure; when he later became apologetic about his 2013 accomplishments, he was derided as indecisive.3 Republicans took out their anger at the legislature with a major grassroots effort to recall some of the state senators responsible for the new gun-safety law; they took the fight all the way to the ballot box where, in September 2013, they successfully recalled Senate President John Morse and state Senator Angela Giron.4 In November, they also forced state Senator Evie Hudak to resign in the face of a likely ouster.5 Colorado Republicans were emboldened by the wins and the success of their newfound message of Democratic overreach, and they quickly turned their sights to 2014.6 Unlike previous years in Colorado, the GOP did not stumble when it came to candidate recruitment, selecting establishment candidate Bob Beauprez to face Hickenlooper.7 The U.S. Senate election also abruptly became competitive in March when well-funded U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner announced his last-minute entry into the race.8 Add the Democrats’ slim majority in the state Senate and vulnerable Rep. Mike Coffman (R) in CO-06, and suddenly Colorado had become one of the nation’s most closely contested battleground states for the third consecutive cycle. That fact was evident throughout the fall, as candidates raked in millions of dollars, pollsters released new surveys multiple times per week, and the state was carpeted with an estimated $76.1 million in broadcast TV ads after September 1.9 In an election that also featured Colorado’s third ballot initiative in six years seeking to define “personhood,” women’s health was a prevalent campaign theme in all races, but especially U.S. Senate and CO-06.10 However, unlike in past races, Republicans did not hide from the issue, messaging effectively to women with a deft ad campaign and moderate-sounding policies.11 Campaigns also had to deal with the unpredictable factor of vote by mail: for the first time in a federal election, all Colorado voters were mailed their ballots.12 Democrats believed this would benefit them, and they built a finely honed field program in the state to turn out their voters, including 25 field offices, 100 paid staffers and 4,000 volunteer 1 Atlas Online Toolkit, Election Results module, accessed 10/14/14; “Democrats Lead the Way in Colorado,” Public Policy Polling, 500 registered voters, MoE ±4.4%, April 11–14, 2013. 2 Eli Stokols, “Colorado’s historic 2013 legislative session in review,” KDVR, May 9, 2013; Dan Elliott, “Nathan Dunlap Reprieve: Hickenlooper's Decision To Block Execution Sharply Criticized,” Associated Press, May 23, 2013. 3 Alan Greenblatt, “Centrism Hurting Once-Popular Gov. Hickenlooper's Re-Election Hopes,” Governing, October 13, 2014. 4 “Atlas Analysis: Explaining Colorado,” The Atlas Project, September 11, 2013. 5 Kurtis Lee and Lynn Bartels, “Evie Hudak resigns: Colorado state senator avoids recall election,” Denver Post, November 27, 2013. 6 Amy Walter, “What Can the Colorado Recall Tell Us About 2014?”, Cook Political Report, September 18, 2013. 7 Katie Glueck, “Bob Beauprez bests Tancredo in Colorado,” POLITICO, June 24, 2014. 8 Kirk Mitchell and Lynn Bartels, “Congressman Cory Gardner announces Senate candidacy at Denver lumber yard,” Denver Post, March 1, 2014. 9 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 10 Jessica Schulberg, “Colorado's Misleading Abortion Initiative Doesn't Mention Abortion,” The New Republic, October 13, 2014; CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 11 Eli Stokols, “Gardner goes on offense on birth control with second TV ad in two days,” KDVR, September 2, 2014. 12 Reid Wilson, “With a win on the line in Colorado, Democrats hope to mail it in,” Washington Post, September 12, 2014. 2 canvassers.13 However, the electorate that emerged from early voting numbers tilted heavily toward registered Republicans.14 Polling for governor consistently showed a statistical tie, but as the calendar turned to November, Gardner and Coffman were seen as pulling away in their races.15 On November 4, the polling averages defeated Democrats’ dreams of a broad and diverse electorate; Gardner and Coffman won by comfortable (3.4 points and 10.1 points, respectively) margins, as did Republican candidates for constitutional office.16 The governor’s race was closer, but Hickenlooper’s personal brand was still worth a few points over the baseline Democratic performance, and he scraped out a two-point win in a race not called until Wednesday morning.17 The most decisive progressive victory was the defeat of Amendment 67 (personhood), 64.6% to 35.4%.18 Control of the Colorado state Senate remained undecided for days after the election, but as of Friday Republicans led in the seat that would decide the majority.19 If the GOP wins control of the Senate, it would set up a contentious next few years in the state. Republicans would likely attempt to repeal 2013’s progressive agenda, such as the gun-safety law, although Hickenlooper and the still- Democratic state House remain a progressive line of defense. However, the Republican gains of 2014 could spell trouble for the 2016 presidential race, when Republican Secretary of State Wayne Williams will oversee mail voting he opposes in a major swing state, as well as 2021 redistricting, 20 which Democrats would need to take back the state Senate to control. 13 Eli Stokols, “Udall needs Democratic ground game to come up big again,” KDVR, October 16, 2014. 14 Eli Stokols, “Udall making final, furious push to turnout Latinos, younger voters,” KDVR, November 3, 2014. 15 “Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; “Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 5, 2014; Jon Murray, “New Mike Coffman and Andrew Romanoff ads take compare/contrast route,” Denver Post, September 25, 2014. 16 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 17 “Democrat John Hickenlooper wins governor race in Colorado,” Associated Press, November 5, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 18 “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m. 19 John Aguilar, “Control of Colorado Senate down to one seat in Adams County,” Denver Post, November 6, 2014. 20 Joey Bunch, “Secretary of state candidate: Beware the household union boss,” Denver Post, October 30, 2014; “Colorado,” All About Redistricting, accessed November 5, 2014. 3 Colorado 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem GOP Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % Party % % % Margin U.S. Senate Mark Udall Cory Gardner D 45.6% 49.0% 5.4% -3.4% CO-01 Diana DeGette Martin Walsh D 65.4% 29.6% 5.0% 35.8% CO-02 Jared Polis George Leing D 56.3% 43.7% 0.0% 12.6% CO-03 Abel Tapia Scott Tipton R 35.7% 58.1% 6.3% -22.4% CO-04 Vic Meyers Ken Buck OPEN (R) 29.1% 64.8% 6.1% -35.7% CO-05 Irv Halter Doug Lamborn R 40.2% 59.8% 0.0% -19.6% CO-06 Andrew Romanoff Mike Coffman R 42.5% 52.6% 4.9% -10.1% CO-07 Ed Perlmutter Don Ytterberg D 54.6% 45.4% 0.0% 9.2% Governor John Hickenlooper Bob Beauprez D 48.7% 46.7% 4.6% 2.0% Secretary of State Joe Neguse Wayne Williams OPEN (R) 44.3% 48.1% 7.6% -3.8% Attorney General Don Quick Cynthia Coffman OPEN (R) 41.7% 52.2% 6.1% -10.5% Treasurer Betsy Markey Walker Stapleton R 44.4% 50.5% 5.1% -6.1% State Senate 8 seats 10 seats D 17 D 17 D 1 ? N/A State House 37 seats 28 seats D 31 D 29 R 5 ? N/A Sources: “2014 General Election Official Candidate List,” Colorado Secretary of State, accessed October 14, 2014; “All Legislators,” Colorado General Assembly, accessed October 14, 2014; “Colorado: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 7:41 p.m.; John Aguilar, “Colorado GOP concedes majority in state House to Democrats,” Denver Post, November 7, 2014. REGISTRATION OVERVIEW The move away from Republican domination in Colorado since 2004 can be seen in the registration numbers of the past decade. Prior to Election Day 2004, Republicans held a registration advantage of 177,508 voters over Democrats (36.1% to 30.4%).21 The shift came between the 2006 and 2008 elections, when Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations preparing for the 2008 presidential election registered over 150,000 new Democrats in the state.
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