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MEXICO SECURITY INITIATIVE Cartel Violence in Mexico FALL 2016 - SPRING 2017 193 POLICY RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT 193 Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs Policy Research Project Report Number 193 Security Policy in Mexico: Recommendations for the 2018 Presidential Election Project Directed by César Martínez, Ph.D. Stephanie Leutert, M.A. A report by the Policy Research Project on Security Policy in Mexico May 2017 The LBJ School of Public Affairs publishes a wide range of public policy issue titles. ISBN: 978-0-89940-821-7 ©2017 by The University of Texas at Austin All rights reserved. No part of this publication or any corresponding electronic text and/or images may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Cover design by Ashley Carreón Policy Research Project Participants Students Francisco Almanza, B.B.A. (International Business), The University of Texas at San Antonio Jacquelyn Chorush, B.A. (Humanities), B.A. (Russian Studies), B.S. (Corporate Communications), The University of Texas at Austin Joel Ingram Dishman, B.A. (History), The University of Texas at Austin Samuel Lorenzo Garcia, B.S. (Strategic Studies and Defense Analysis), Norwich University Sara Garcia, B.A. (Political Science), St. Edward’s University Craig Leroy Gertsch, B.A. (Sociology), University of California, Berkeley Daniela Hernandez Salazar, B.A. (Anthropology), The University of Texas at Austin Stephen Bailey Leland, B.A. (Political Science), B.A. (International Studies), Baylor University Kathryn Lundstrom, B.A. (International Studies), University of Wisconsin-Madison Christopher Marshall, B.A. (History), B.A. (Spanish), The College of Wooster Scott Pittman, B.A. (History), University of California, Davis John W. Shaw, B.S. (Spanish), B.S. (Latin American Studies), United States Military Academy Molly Smith, B.A. (Politics), Whitman College Scott Squires, B.A. (Journalism), The University of Texas at Austin Allison Swatek, B.A. (Political History), New York University David Brooks Troiani, B.A. (History), Westmont College Caitlyn Yates, B.A. (Anthropology), B.A. (Political Science), Trinity University Project Directors Cesar Martinez, Ph.D., Adjunct Assistant Professor, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Stephanie Leutert, M.A., Fellow, Robert Strauss Center, The University of Texas at Austin Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................... xi Foreword ........................................................................................................................................xv Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... xvii Introduction .................................................................................................................................. xix Chapter 1. Improving Mexico’s Security Strategy ..........................................................................1 Military Reform .........................................................................................................................1 Lethal Force Reform ..................................................................................................................6 Intelligence Reform .................................................................................................................22 Penitentiary System Reform ....................................................................................................30 Chapter 2. Addressing Domestic Politics and International Policies ............................................41 Elections and Political Engagement.........................................................................................41 Criminal Justice Reform ..........................................................................................................47 International Cooperation ........................................................................................................57 Chapter 3. Tackling the Criminal Economy ..................................................................................65 The Money Flow of Transnational Criminal Organizations ....................................................66 How Extortion Subverts Economic Growth ............................................................................71 How to Address the Socioeconomic Hotspots .........................................................................78 Chapter 4. Strengthening Mexico’s Civil Society .........................................................................93 The Value of Civil Society Security Initiatives .......................................................................94 The Business Sector and Civil Society ....................................................................................98 Journalism: Monitoring Corruption and Demanding Accountability ....................................102 Autodefensas: Prevention and Control ...................................................................................111 Appendix A. The Legal Basis for the Use of Force in Mexico ..................................................119 Appendix B. Socioeconomic Indicators and Drug Trafficking ...................................................121 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................125 v vi List of Tables Table 1.1 Number of Prisons in Mexico, 2012 ..............................................................................30 Table 1.2 Prison Capacity of Mexican Prisons, 2013 ....................................................................31 Table 1.3 Mexican Prison Budget, 2014-2016 ..............................................................................31 Table 1.4 Number of Violent Incidents in Mexican Prisons, 2013-2015 ......................................34 vii viii List of Figures Figure 1.1 Number of Complaints in Mexican State Prison Centers, 2015 ...................................33 Figure 2.1 National Federal Institute’s Distribution of Public Funds ............................................43 Figure 2.2 SETEC Categorical Grants to Mexican States, 2010-2015 ..........................................51 Figure 2.3 Personnel Trained vs. Not Trained on Mexico’s New Justice System, September 2015 ..........................................................................................................................55 Figure 2.4 Mérida Initiative Pillars ................................................................................................58 Figure 2.5 Extraditions from Mexico to the United States, 1995-2015 .........................................60 Figure 3.1 Hot Spot Analysis of Homicide Rates by State in Mexico, 2015 ................................79 Figure 3.2 Hot Spot Analysis of Poverty Rates by State in Mexico, 2015 ....................................80 Figure B.1 Hot Spot Analysis of Extreme Poverty by States in Mexico, 2014 ...........................121 Figure B.2 Average Years of Education by States in Mexico, 2014 ...........................................122 Figure B.3 Average Monthly Household Income by States in Mexico, 2014 .............................123 Figure B.4 Drug Trafficking Problem by States in Mexico, 2014...............................................124 ix x List of Acronyms AFI Agencia Federal de Investigación (Federal Investigative Police) AML Anti-money laundering APEAM Asociación de Productores y Empacadores Exportadores de Aguacate de México BANSEFI Banco de Ahorro Nacional y Servicios Financieros (National Savings and Financial Services Bank) BCDS Bulk Currency Detection System CARSI Central American Regional Security Initiative CCF Continuous combat function CCISJP Consejo de Coordinación para la Implementación del Sistema de Justicia Penal (Coordinating Council for the Implementation of the Criminal Justice System) CCLEO UN Code of Conduct for Law Enforcement Officials CISEN Centro de Investigación y Seguridad Nacional (Center for Research and National Security) CNDH National Commission on Human Rights CNPP National Code of Criminal Procedure (Código Nacional de Procedimiento Penal) COFIPE Federal Code of Institutions and Electoral Procedures CONEVAL El Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy) COPARMEX Confederación Patronal de la República DEA Drug Enforcement Administration DNI Director of National Intelligence DOJ U.S. Department of Justice DPH Directly participates in hostilities DTO Drug trafficking organization ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States xi ENVIPE National Survey on Victimization and Perceptions of Public Safety FEADLE Special Prosecutor for Crimes Against Freedom of Expression FIU Financial Intelligence Unit GDP Gross Domestic Product HRC UN Human Rights Committee IAC International armed