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Reference Projection Energy and Emissions 2010-2020

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Reference Projection Energy and Emissions 2010-2020 Reference Projection Energy and Emissions 2010-2020 ECN-E--10-049 December 2010 Acknowledgement This report has been written for the Projectbureau Schoon en Zuinig (Project Office Clean and Efficient) of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment and the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. This report contains the English translation of the Dutch report „Referentieramingen Energie en Emissies 2010-2020, registered under ECN report num- ber ECN-E--10-004. The ECN project number is 50046. The PBL report number is 500161005. The contact persons of this project are coordinating authors Bert Daniëls of ECN (tel. +31-224- 564426, e-mail: [email protected]) and Sonja Kruitwagen of PBL (tel. +31-30-2743526, e-mail: [email protected]). In addition to the coordinating authors a large number of employees of ECN and PBL have con- tributed to this study: Luuk Beurskens (ECN), Pieter Boot (ECN), Eric Drissen (PBL), Jeroen van Deurzen (ECN), Hans Elzenga (PBL), Gerben Geilenkirchen (PBL), Joost Gerdes (ECN), Coen Hanschke (ECN), Michiel Hekkenberg (ECN), Anco Hoen (PBL), Benno Jimmink (PBL), Sander Kieboom (PBL), Sander Lensink (ECN), Stefan Luxembourg (ECN), Marijke Menkveld (ECN), Pieter Kroon (ECN), Kees Peek (PBL), Arjan Plomp (ECN), Marian van Schijndel (PBL), Ad Seebregts (ECN), Jos Sijm (ECN), Jeffrey Sipma (ECN), Sietske van der Sluis (PBL), Joost van Stralen (ECN), Casper Tigchelaar (ECN), Martine Uyterlinde (ECN), Martijn Verdonk (PBL), Paul Vethman (ECN), Cees Volkers (ECN), Wouter Wetzels (ECN), Alessia de Vita (ECN), Harry Wilting (PBL). The English translation was conducted by Marlies Kamp (ECN). The final layout was done by Kim Stutvoet-Mulder (ECN). Abstract The Reference projection 2010-2020 examines the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments. With regard to the latter, the “Schoon en Zuinig” (Clean and Efficient) policy programme for energy and climate, introduced in 2007, plays an important role. According to Schoon en Zuinig, greenhouse gas emissions have to be reduced by 30% in 2020 compared to 1990; the annual energy efficiency improvement has to increase to 2% and the target share of renewable energy production in total consumption in 2020 is 20%. To assess the effects of the policy measures from the Schoon en Zuinig policy programme, the Reference projection explores three policy variants: one without policies introduced after 2007, one including only post-2007 poli- cies that are already fixed, and one including proposed policy measures as well. Here, policies refer to Dutch as well as to European policies. The results indicate that the climate and energy targets will not be reached with the current in- struments. Including proposed policy measures, the estimated greenhouse gas reduction will amount to 16-24% relative to 1990, the renewable energy share will rise to 13-16% and the an- nual energy efficiency improvement between 2011 and 2020 will amount to between 1.1 and 1.6%. European targets for greenhouse gas emissions can be reached, especially in the case of imple- mentation of the proposed policies. As for renewable energy, the implementation of proposed policies is imperative for attaining the target, but likely to be insufficient. Current European targets for air pollutants are within reach. 2020 emission levels of most air pollutants are lower than the current 2010 National Emission Ceilings, with the exception of ammonia, where there is a substantial chance that the 2020 emissions will exceed the 2010 ceil- ing. However, ceilings are likely to become more stringent towards 2020. 2 ECN-E--10-049 Contents List of tables 5 List of figures 6 List of boxes 8 Summary 9 S.1 Introduction 9 S.2 Developments in energy use 10 S.3 Developments in greenhouse gas emissions 10 S.4 Policy Effects 11 S.5 Clean and Efficient targets 12 S.6 Greenhouse gases: -30% in 2020 compared to 1990 13 S.7 Renewable energy: 20% in 2020 14 S.8 Energy saving: avarage of 2% annually in 2011-2010 14 S.9 European targets 14 S.10 Conclusions greenhouse gas emissions and energy 15 S.11 Emissions of air-polluting substances 15 S.12 Conclusions about air polluting substances 16 1. Introduction 17 1.1 Objective and scope 17 1.2 Outline approach 17 1.3 Reading instructions 18 2. Method and starting points 19 2.1 Policy variants 19 2.2 Uncertainty analysis 19 2.3 Demography and economy 21 2.4 Fuel and CO2 prices 24 2.5 Other 28 3. Energy and CO2 29 3.1 Introduction 29 3.2 Industry 30 3.3 Traffic and transport 36 3.4 Households 42 3.5 Trade, Services and Government 53 3.6 Agriculture 60 4. Energy supply 65 4.1 Electricity production 65 4.2 Decentralised CHP 76 4.3 Renewable energy 79 4.4 Refineries 84 5. Other greenhouse gases 89 5.1 Introduction 89 5.2 Agriculture 91 5.3 Other greenhouse gases non agriculture 94 6. Air polluting substances 97 6.1 Nitric oxides (NOx) 97 6.1.1 Stationary sources 97 6.1.2 Traffic and transport 102 6.2 Sulphur dioxides (SO2) 105 ECN-E--10-049 3 6.3 Volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) 109 6.3.1 Netherlands total 109 6.3.2 Industry, energy sector, refineries and waste processing 111 6.3.3 Traffic and transport 112 6.3.4 Households, TSG and agriculture 113 6.4 Ammonia (NH3) 114 6.4.2 Agriculture 115 6.5 Particulate matter 119 6.5.1 Introduction 119 7. Synthesis: Policy and objectives of climate and energy 125 7.1 Target range Clean and Efficient 125 7.1.1 Greenhouse gas emissions 126 7.1.2 Energy saving 129 7.1.3 Renewable energy 132 7.2 EU targets 134 7.3 Overview of policy effects 134 7.4 Looking ahead to 2030 140 References 143 Appendix A Energy balances 148 Appendix B Overview policy measures Clean and Efficient 158 B.1 Traffic and transport 158 B.2 Policy industry, energy and agriculture 168 B.3 Policy for the built environment 173 B.4 Policy for other greenhouse gases 177 Appendix C Emissions of greenhouse gases and air-polluting substances 178 Appendix D Differences energy and greenhouse gases compared to previous projection 182 Appendix E Targets, tasks and realisations 183 Appendix F Oil extraction 184 Appendix G List of abbreviations and glossary 186 G.1 List of used abbreviations 186 G.2 Glossary 189 4 ECN-E--10-049 List of tables Table S.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions, targets and realisations 14 Table 2.1 Population developments 2008-2020 according to CBS 21 Table 2.2 Number of households and distribution of number of households according to size 22 Table 2.3 Annual economic growth, disposable income and consumer expenditure 23 Table 2.4 Annual growth of the value added tax according to sector 24 Table 3.1 Uncertain factors CO2 emission industry (Mton) 36 Table 3.2 Uncertain factors electricity demand industry 36 Table 3.3 Uncertain factors CO2 emissions traffic and transport 40 Table 3.4 Uncertain factors biofuels traffic and transport 41 Table 3.5 Uncertain factors Electricity demand traffic and transport 41 Table 3.6 Summarising overview table: Energy use households in 2020? 48 Table 3.7 Uncertain factors CO2 emission Households 51 Table 3.8 Uncertain factors electricity demand households 51 Table 3.9 Uncertain factors renewable heating households 51 Table 3.10 Uncertain factors CO2 emission trade, services and government 59 Table 3.11 Uncertain factors electricity demand trade, services and government 59 Table 3.12 Uncertain factors CO2 emission agriculture 64 Table 3.13 Uncertain factors renewable heat agriculture 64 Table 3.14 Uncertain factors electricity demand agriculture 64 Table 4.1 Growth installed production capacity Northwest Europe 66 Table 4.2 New construction plans central capacity („electricity plants‟), 2008-2020 68 Table 4.3 Net average electrical conversion efficiencies 74 Table 4.4 Uncertain factors CO2 emissions large-scale electricity generation 75 Table 4.5 Uncertain factors CO2 emission reduction decentralised CHP 78 Table 4.6 Renewable heating in case of implementation of intended policy 83 Table 4.7 Uncertain factors renewable electricity 84 Table 4.8 Uncertain factors renewable heat central 84 Table 4.9 Maximum allowed sulphur content of fuel oil for sea-going vessels 85 Table 4.10 Uncertain factors CO2 emission refineries 87 Table 411 Uncertain factors electricity demand refineries 88 Table 5.1 Detailed overview of the other GHG emissions (Mton CO2-eq) in 2007 and 2020 90 Table 5.2 Uncertainties about other greenhouse gases agriculture 94 Table 5.3 Uncertainties other greenhouse gases other sectors 96 Table 6.1 Development of the NOx emission of stationary sources per sector 99 Table 6.2 Development NOx emission and emission trade 99 Table 6.3 Uncertainty in the NOx emission in 2020 100 Table 6.4 The development of the SO2 emission of stationary sources per sector 107 Table 6.5 Economic and other uncertainties in the SO2 emission in 2020 107 Table 6.6 Uncertainties Volatile organic compounds 110 Table 6.7 Uncertain factors NH3 emission 114 Table 6.8 Uncertainties in PM10 emissions from traffic 121 Table 6.9 Uncertainties PM10 emissions of agriculture 123 Table 6.10 Uncertainty in PM10 emissions of IER sectors 124 Table 7.1 Greenhouse gas emissions total, targets and realisation 126 Table 7.2 Greenhouse gas emission per sector, non-ETS 128 Table 7.3 Saving rate per sector 130 ECN-E--10-049 5 Table A.1 Energy balance 2008 corrected for climate 148 Table A2 Energy balance 2020 without new national and European policy since 2007 149 Table A.3 Energy balance 2010 under fixed
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