Ukraine Through German Eyes Images and Perceptions of a Country in Transition

Bonn / Eschborn, 2018 Project Management: Andreas von Schumann, Manager, Office for Political Communication, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH (German Agency for International Cooperation), Kyiv

Roman Ivanov, Deputy Manager, Office for Political Communication, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH (German Agency for International Cooperation), Kyiv

Project team and interviewers: Katharina Binhack, Frankfurt Dr. Oliver Gnad, Berlin Olena GordienkKyivo, Kyiv Mariia Henning, Kyiv Roman Ivanov, Kyiv Veranika Karzan, Kyiv Maryna Kovtun, Kyiv Olena Ovcharenko, Kyiv Andreas von Schumann, Kyiv Illia Tolstov, Kyiv Sigrid Vesper, Berlin Nataliia Vlasiuk, Kyiv

Methodology: Dr. Mischa Skribot, LUMIQUE Gesellschaft für strategische Managementservices mbH, Vienna

Editor: Dr. Oliver Gnad, Büro für Zeitgeschehen (BfZ) GmbH (Bureau of Current Affairs), Berlin

Translation: Prof. Volker Raddatz, Berlin Preface 6 4. as an Object and a Subject of International Relations 74

Prologue: Caesuras in the Perception of Ukraine 10 Germany: Mediator or Double-Minded Opportunist? 76 Ukrainian and European Passivity 79 1. Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption 20 A Special Relationship: The Ukrainian-Russian Connexion 82 : Changing Perceptions 24 The Role of German Media: More Quality, More Topics, Please! 29 5. Pictures of and Perspectives on the Future 90 Success Factors for Sustainable Change 91 2. Identities and Cultural Diversity 32 Economically, a Sleeping Giant 92 Bilingualism 34 Young People – a Potential for Ukraine’s Future 95 Cultural landscapes 37 Staying or Leaving? 98 The Classic Tradition and Cultural Life Today 38 Religion and Religiosity 40 Special texts (text boxes) Open-Mindedness and Individuality 41 Donbas- Deserve More Solidarity 27 The Lack of Recognition for Vocational Training 69 3. The Reform Agenda and Social Change 44 Ukrainian Parties as Alliances of Personal Interest 70 Part I: Determinants of Social Change 45 Ukraine’s Future as a Litmus Test for the European Idea 71 Successful Reforms and Reform Deadlock 45 Ukraine’s Backbone Is Her Strong Civil Society 72 Hangover Symptoms and Growing Pessimism 50 Social Exchange as a Key to Modernization 88 in Reform Debates Internal Migration and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) 101 Oligarchy and the Freedom of the Press 55 People’s Lack of Trust in the Political Elites 55 Appendices About the Methodology of this Study 103 Part II: Sectoral Reforms: A Divided Response 58 The Collection of Data in Personal Interviews 104 Problem Area Judiciary: An Only a Half-Hearted 58 Mini-Reform of the Police, so far Evaluation of Collected Data 106 The Energy Sector as a Key Reform Field 59 Discussion partners 109 New Environmental Awareness, the Ecological 60 Legacy and Environmental Crimes “The public health systemis a catastrophe.” 61 External Security: Forming Alliances 63 or Remaining in Isolation? The Fight Against Corruption: A Consistent Lip-Service 65 Quality Deficits and Bribability in Higher Education 66 erceptions do not reflect the truth. Instead, they are the result of subjective Pinterpretations – the mixing of things which have been experienced, remem- Preface bered, felt, and constructed. Perceptions are strongly characterized by the time and circumstances in which they are formed.

If, for instance, in the framework of this study on Germany’s perception of Ukraine, a discussion partner should point out that “we talk a lot about Ukraine, but not with her”, one can trace back this impression by asking how it has emerged and whether it is correct or misleading. However, finding the truth has not been our objective. Instead, we wanted to find out which similarities are re- vealed in different perceptions of different persons, which contours the images of Ukraine display, and which profile or which distortions can be recognized. 7

Thus, we were able to identify two consistent basic lines in the answers. The first line is that the view on Ukraine is considered as too narrow, the relevant knowledge as too sketchy, the attention as too fleeting, and the assessments as not sufficiently substantiated. Such a perception may surprise against the background of the many-faceted cooperation links between Ukraine and Germany. Our re- sults include a number of plausible and less plausible reasons for this fragmentary debate with Ukraine. It becomes clear that this is not only a “problem of rep- resentation” on the part of Ukraine, but that the distorted perception is mostly generated by the observer.

Another basic line, that was apparent in every discussion, is the profound desire that Germany and the Germans should address Ukraine more often and more intensely. This hope is determined by several motives: by Germany’s historic re- sponsibility, by Ukraine’s cultural diversity, by the country’s economic potential, by the need to create stability in Eastern Europe or by a possible stimulus for the future development of the EU.

The most conspicuous motive, however, was the enthusiasm for what our discus- sion partners discovered during their own rapprochement with Ukraine. Irrespec- tive of their individual situation and conditions that let them shift their attention to Ukraine, most of them emphasized an initial “blank page” which, however, soon turned into “a colourful canvass.”

Methodologically, the study “Ukraine Through German Eyes” was carried out analogous to the GIZ’s earlier studies of perceptions under the overall title Preface

“Germany Through the World’s Eyes.”1 It was our key interest to find out how Finally, it should be said in advance that this study is characterized by a decidedly Ukraine is perceived in Germany with regard to her international relations and German view on Ukraine – really no surprise given the selection of our discussion her internal development, where her specific strengths and weaknesses are seen, partners. We have chosen this highly selective approach for two reasons: firstly, and what is expected from the country’s future against this background. because Germany is a key partner of Ukraine on her way to a self-determined European future. Secondly, because the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale To serve this purpose, personal interviews with 44 selected experts on Ukraine Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) (an enterprise of the Federal German Government) is from Germany were conducted in autumn 2017. A list of these 44 discussion obliged to adjust itself to changing framework conditions in order to remain ef- partners can be found in the appendix, together with a detailed explanation of fective and to find approval. the methodology of this study. Consequently, this study on perceptions does not only contribute to the debate The text offers three different perspectives in order to acquaint the reader with on Ukraine’s future, embedded in a newly-formed European political order. It is

8 Ukraine: The introductory prologue deliberately adopts the historical and politi- also meant to show how the picture of Ukraine has developed since the events on 9 cal standpoint of a Western analyst, because such a perception and interpretation the Maidan in Kyiv in 2013/2014 and how people’s lives in Ukraine are being appears to be most familiar to the reader. Here, the most important milestones viewed from a critical external perspective. of Ukrainian history in the 20th century will be traced with the intention to place the subjective perceptions of our discussion partners into a historical and con- temporary context. Andreas von Schumann, Kyiv The main part is completely devoted to the statements and impressions of our interview partners. Their perceptions have been condensed to core statements in a multi-stage process – a procedure the result of which is called “intersubjectivity” in qualitative social science. Through this method, a collection of cumulated and weighed subjective perceptions is generated which, piece by piece, eventually form an overall picture – without, however, claiming to be objective or even true.

The structure, arrangement and dramaturgy of the text have been deliberately set up in a way so that the resulting composite picture emerging before the reader’s eyes remains, as much as possible, a fragmented mosaic. Although each chapter stands for itself, it can be matched and joined with other chapters to form completely different, many-faceted overall pictures. Depending on the (optional) chronological sequence each chapter is read, different narratives about Ukraine will result. Thus, the author’s hand shall remain in the background; instead, the raw material consisting of many quotations can be arranged and interpreted by the reader himself/herself.

1 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (ed.), Deutschland in den Augen der Welt. Zentrale Ergebnisse der GIZ-Erhebung „Außensicht Deutschland – Rückschlüsse für die Internationale Zusammenar- beit“, Bonn/Eschborn 2012 (Download: https://www.giz.de/de/downloads/de-deutschland-in-den-augen-der- welt-2012.pdf); Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (ed.), Deutschland in den Augen der Welt. Zentrale Ergebnisse der zweiten GIZ-Erhebung 2015, Bonn/Eschborn 2015 (Download: https://www.giz. de/de/downloads/giz2015-de-deutschland-in-den-augen-der-welt_2015.pdf). The third GIZ study on Germany will appear in the first quarter of 2018. Prologue: Caesuras When, in 1990, I travelled to the West for the first time – more precisely: to the USA –, I had real difficulties in explaining to my discussion partners which country I came from. Of course, in the Perception of I considered myself a Ukrainian. I even had a relevant entry in my Soviet passport. After all, there was such a thing as the “Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic” – with its own government and its own Ukraine parliament, and it was even a member of the UN – a decision that far-sighted Stalin had made in 1945. Consequently, my answer

to the question: “Where are you from?” was: “From Ukraine” – 11 undeterred and entirely unsuspecting. My discussion partners, however, were not impressed at all. “Sorry?” – the more polite asked. “What?” – others tried to call up their accumulated TV-knowledge. “Bahrain?” “No,” I corrected patiently. “Ukraine.” “What’s that?” “One of the Soviet Republics.” “Oh, Russia!” – the Americans nodded enthusiastically believing to have hit the jackpot. “No” – I tried to muster as much patience as possible. “Russia, too, is one of the Soviet Republics.” This statement left them completely puzzled. Russia, one of Russia’s Republics? Someone must be crazy here. No doubt, who. At the end of my trip, I met a man who was not in the least perturbed by my explanation. “Which Ukraine?” – he reacted in a matter-of-fact voice. “The Russian one or the Polish one?” Now, it was my turn to be embarrassed. I simply muttered: “The Soviet one. So far.”1

1 Mykola Rjabtschuk, Die reale und die imaginierte Ukraine, Frankfurt: edition suhrkamp, 2013, pp. 11-12. Caesuras in the perception of Ukraine

The German genocide researcher Gunnar sions (of “collaborators”), deportations (of the Heinsohn once called the death from starva- intelligentsia) and resettlement measures (of tion of the Ukrainian population “the fastest West Ukrainians with a national attitudes and mass killing of the 20th century and possibly of ethnic minorities). After Stalin died in the in history, directed against a single ethnic spring of 1953 and later on Nikita Khrush- group.”1 It remains controversial whether chev came into power, the harshest repressions Stalin and Molotov had intended to thereby of Ukrainians by Moscow came to an end. crush Ukraine’s aspirations for independence For economic and administrative reasons, the or whether the millions of deaths were caused Crimean peninsula (which, in spite of being by a chain of ruthlessly enforced collectiv- geographically a part of Ukraine, had belonged ization measures, confiscation of harvest and to the Russian Soviet Republic since 1921) was periods of bad weather. It is a fact that, on rather abruptly transferred to the Ukrainian the eve of the German assault on the Soviet Soviet Republic in May 1954.2 ith this teasing humour, so typical of Apparently, Ukraine only steps out of her Union, the Ukrainian population already rep- 12 13 Wthe region, Mykola Riabchuk, a Kyiv shadowy existence when she becomes a pawn resented a society on the verge of social and During the Cold War, Ukraine was not only writer and journalist, describes his country’s in the hands of neighbouring powers with economic collapse. the Soviet Union’s granary, but also its armoury eternal dilemma: It does not leave any mental their geopolitical ambitions; and it is quite and advanced base of the USSR’s strategic imprint, it remains practically without any per- telling that Ukraine appears much more con- Hitler’s Eastern campaign, primarily aiming forces. It was here that the Soviet military had ception of its own, and it has been – as long as spicuously in the narratives of these neigh- at the conquest of Ukrainian settlement areas deployed the bulk of its nuclear medium-range contemporary generations can look back – in bouring powers than in the context of her and at the subjugation of the country as a forces, had stationed large units of its nucle- the shadow of its powerful eastern neighbour, own historiography. Thus, the formation of a colony for extracting raw materials, not only ar-armed navy in the closed military zone of Russia. It is already the country’s name that as- modern state in 1917 became only possible as led to a far-reaching destruction of Ukrainian Sevastopol on Crimea, and had deployed com- signs to Ukraine a position at the periphery of a result of the decline and military defeat of cities and infrastructure, but also to an almost bat-ready divisions targeted against the West. great empires; the old East Slavic word ukraina czarist Russia (and with support by Germany). complete extinction of the Jewish population. means “border region” (i.e. an area bordering This independence, however, ended as early as The SS killed around 1,4 million Ukrainian Only a few people in the West were aware with that of the Turkic horse-mounted nomads 1922 – after the conquest and occupation by Jews. The mass-shooting of Kyiv’s Jews in of the fact that Ukraine, withing the USSR, along the so-called “wild field,” the steppes of Trotsky’s Red Army – with the integration of the ravine of Babyn Jar, in September 1941, played a major role as a garrison and industrial today’s Southern and Eastern Ukraine). most of Western and Eastern Ukraine into the belongs to those horrible sights which have backbone. It was only in April 1986 that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. left an imprint on the collective memory of Western public became once again aware of It seems that there are only two ascriptions German post-war generations. Ukraine when in its north, near the town of when Ukraine is perceived as an object in Whereas West European historical aware- Prypiat, block no. 4 of the Chornobyl nuclear terms of history and international law: either ness of Ukraine only re-gained momentum The reconquest of Ukraine by the Red Army, power station sustained severe damage. This as a projection surface for the power politics with the Third Reich’s assault on the Soviet in October 1944, not only led to the country’s was the first nuclear accident classified as an of major regional powers (the Habsburgs, Union in the summer of 1941, the collective new Soviet subjugation (despite a formal status MCA – a Maximum Credible Accident – on Poles, Germans, , Ottomans), or as Ukrainian memory is focused – until today – of republican autonomy and an independent the seven-stage international scale. Today, this a country historically and culturally torn be- on a completely different event: the so-called UN founding membership). Once again, the accident is considered a key cause for the fol- tween East and West. And this is why Europe’s “Holodomor” which signifies the million- population had to put up with mass repres- lowing decline of the Soviet Union, as it made second largest country, at best, plays a subor- fold death from starvation of the Ukrainian dinate role in public perception and does not rural population at the beginning of the 1 Gunnar Heinsohn, Lexikon der Völkermorde. Reinbek bei Hamburg: Rowohlt, 1998; Timothy D. Snyder, Bloodlands. Europa zwischen leave behind a visible footprint in terms of the 1930ies, caused by the forced collectiviza- Hitler und Stalin, München: Beck, 2011. history of civilization. tion of agriculture under Russian Soviet rule. 2 Gwendolyn Sasse, The Crimea Question. Identity, Transition, and Conflict, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2007. Caesuras in the perception of Ukraine

clear how ramshackle the country’s infrastruc- vacuum had developed which was quickly filled just liberated themselves from the clutches Towards the mid-1990ies, after the signing of ture was, how carelessly the Soviet authorities by personal affiliations and cliques. of the Soviet Union. In December 1997, the the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine practi- handled such incidents, and how little the re- European Council in Luxembourg decided cally disappears for a decade from the public gime was able to cope with their consequences. In Riabchuk’s opinion, this alliance helped the to begin admission talks with ten states from perception of the West. At most, Western Thus, the catastrophe of Chornobyl became forces of a new beginning “to slow down the central and Eastern Europe including the three headlines commemorated the nuclear disaster a symbol of a system which entered into an development of a genuine multi-party-system post-Soviet Baltic States. of Chornobyl (which had its 10th anniversa- accelerated process of decline. for many years.” According to Riabchuk, “they ry in April 1996) along with the question of are responsible for the fact that the oligarchic Such a rapprochement was hardly on the agen- reconstructing the protective concrete shell After the abortive Moscow Putsch of August project, realized in Ukraine by the post-com- da with regard to Ukraine or to Belarus: With (“sarcophagus”) around the damaged nucle- 1991, Ukraine, as the first of the big Soviet munist nomenclature, formally received the regard to post-Soviet core-states with close ar reactor. In any case, attention was focused core states, declared herself independent on name and the tokens of a democratic, nation- historical, social, economic and cultural ties on Russia’s future which, during the 1990s, 24th August, thus separating herself from the alistic project.”4 to Russia, an intrusion of Western institutions plunged into a severe economic and social cri- socialist union following the example of the into Russia’s Cordon Sanitaire was absolute- sis and, under Boris Yeltsin’s weak and erratic Baltic States, Armenia and Georgia. Mykola In contrast to the Baltic States where, after the ly inconceivable. Let alone the fact that both leadership, found it difficult to maintain the 14 15 Riabchuk interprets this separation as a “dou- collapse of the Soviet Union, the civil societies Ukraine and Belarus co-founded the Com- unity of the Russian state (as evidenced by the ble emancipation” -– i.e. the emancipation of took over the control of the state apparatus monwealth of Independent States (CIS) in first Chechen War). the civil society from the state and the emanci- transferring the authoritarian-centralistic sys- December 1991 aiming to establish a common pation of the nation from the empire.”3 tem to a pluralistic, liberal-democratic system, economic and security region in succession to This wallflower-existence of Ukraine only Ukraine largely remained within her tradition- the Soviet Union. In any case, the West was ended when, in autumn 2004, the presiden- After the referendum on independence on 1st al power structures. Even though the old elites less interested in Ukraine’s democratization tial election campaign for ’s December 1991, Leonid Kravchuk, former Sec- did not completely succeed in subjecting the or economic modernization, but more in her succession began. This campaign was over- retary of the Central Committee, was elected, forces of an emancipated civil society to their nuclear disarmament. shadowed by an attempt to poison the liberal with an overwhelming majority, as the first pres- authoritarian claim to power, civil society, for presidential candidate – ident of the independent Ukraine. This election its part, was unable to implement the Baltic This eventually materialized with the adoption a crime that has never been solved. A plot ensured the continuation of an elite which not option. What was left, was a “pluralism by of the so-called Budapest Memorandum which taken from a Hollywood movie with apparent- only led to an “unfinished revolution” (Taras default” (Lucan Way) and a hybrid democracy was signed between Russia, the USA und the ly clear-cut, archetypical roles: power-hungry Kuzio), but also – as should become clear very with increasingly authoritarian features, or, as UK on 5th December 1994 in the Hungarian Russia as a cold-blooded hegemon, and the soon – laid the foundation of a thoroughly the magazine East European Reporter put it capital on the fringes of the Conference on freedom-loving Ukraine as the victim. Over- corrupt political system. For post-communists once: “Authoritarianism with a human face.”5 Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE). night, the events in Kyiv filled the title-pages and nationalists formed an unholy alliance: Referring to the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, the of the big daily papers and of the tabloids. as the forces striving for independence finally The Western perception of Ukraine during delegates agreed in three separate statements to wanted to realize the separation from Russia, the transition from Leonid I. (Kravchuk) to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of During the election campaign, Yushchenko they agreed on a cooperation with the nomen- Leonid II. (Kuchma) – provided any attention Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine in return for not only stood for a consistent anti-corrup- clature that – as yet – exercised power in the was paid at all to this country between East their relinquishment of nuclear weapons. In tion course, but also made no secret of his country with the help of state bodies and infor- and West – was that of a benevolent author- terms of international law, the Budapest Mem- anti-Russian and pro-European attitude. mal networks. The more so, because – after the itarianism. At any rate, the West was focused orandum is not binding to the same degree as a Although Yushchenko, owing to the poison ban of the Communist Party in 1991 – a power on the states of Central Europe which had fully ratified treaty, but closer to a declaration of attack, had to stop his election campaign intent – a fact which was to assume far-reaching four weeks prior to the election, he managed significance for Ukraine’s sovereignty and integ- to place himself, after the first ballot, in the 3 Mykola Rjabtschuk, Die reale und die imaginierte Ukraine, Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp (edition suhrkamp 2418) 2005, p. 88. 4 Mykola Rjabtschuk, Die reale und die imaginierte Ukraine, Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp (edition suhrkamp 2418) 2005, pp. 93-94. rity in the course of the annexation of Crimea runoff election against , the 5 Mykola Riabchuk, “Authoritarianism with a Human Face,” East European Reporter, Vol. 5 (November/December 1992), pp. 52-56. and of the war in Eastern Ukraine. acting Prime Minister and Moscow’s protégé. Caesuras in the perception of Ukraine

According to official results, Yanukovych won the West. Whereas Viktor Yushchenko clearly the runoff election on 21st November 2004 by pursued a Westerly course approving Ukraine’s a tiny margin, but when allegations of elector- accession to the EU as well as to NATO, posi- al fraud became more and more substantiated tioning himself expressly against Moscow (for and public protests escalated to the “Orange instance, he did so during the Georgia crisis Revolution”, the Ukrainian Supreme Court of 2008, a stance which – according to many of Justice ordered a repetition of the second observers – led to Moscow’s “cold sanctions” ballot. On 26th December 2004, this second such as the reduction of natural gas supplies), ballot was won by Viktor Yushchenko who Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych did not collected just under 52% of the votes. want to lead the country away from Mos- cow so completely: although he opted for a With Viktor Yushchenko and the bellig- cautious approach to the European Union, he erent-charismatic Yulia Tymoshenko who did not consider a NATO-membership which became Ukrainian Prime Minister in January then seemed out of question for him. 16 17 2005, Ukraine finally seemed to open up and to begin anew – after a decade of growing Given the disappointing record of the reform authoritarianism. This hope, however, soon forces, the presidential election in February scattered, because Yushchenko and Tymoshen- 2010 resulted in a restoration of the tradi- ko quickly used up their political capital due tional power structure: Viktor Yanukovych’s to a never-ending battle for prestige. Already victory against Yulia Tymoshenko in the run- “The German perception of Ukraine is quite the parliamentary elections in 2006 ended off second round moved Ukraine, once again, unstable – it has oscillated between enthusiasm in favour of Yanukovych’s , towards the East. And the country became and Yanukovych, surprisingly, became Prime again more authoritarian: in order to divert (after the Maidan-revolution) and disillusionment Minister. One year later, however, after early the attention from his own corrupt deal- parliamentary elections, he had to hand over ings, Yanukovych first of all turned against (owing to political stagnation and reform his office to Yulia Tymoshenko again who his former political opponent and took legal carried out the official duties of the Ukrainian action against Yulia Tymoshenko for suspicion deadlock)” (534) government head until early 2010 – now in of corruption. As neither the legal proceed- clear distinction from president Yushchenko. ings nor the conditions of imprisonment corresponded to human rights principles and Retrospectively, it seems as if, in the years those of a constitutional democracy, Brussels from 2004 to 2014, the Ukrainian political temporarily suspended the conclusion, with elite was almost exclusively occupied with Kyiv, of an association agreement with the internal battles for favourable positions. EU. At the same time, Yanukovych pursued However, there was more at stake: within the an increasingly contradictory seesaw policy country’s political institutions there raged, for between Moscow and Brussels which dra- the first time, an open power struggle about matically reduced his scope of action, both at Ukraine’s alignment between the East and home and abroad.6

6 See: Andrew Wilson, Ukraine Crisis: What it Means for the West. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2015, pp. 73-76. See also the investigative online-platform: http://yanukovychleaks.org/en/ . Caesuras in the perception of Ukraine

When Moscow used economic sanctions to Russian Federation Council on 21st March November 2017. Their views on the East of Europe’s and “the West’s” current status put pressure on Kyiv because of its rap- 2014. Shortly afterwards, this was followed European country do not only reflect its quo. The question which direction Ukraine prochement with the EU, thereby trying by a covert intervention, with the help of decade-long struggle for reorientation, mod- will take depends on both, an active civil to force Ukraine’s accession to the Cus- Russia-directed militias, in the Donets Basin ernization and self-determination against the society and an interested European public. toms Union (that later became the Eurasian aiming to also extricate the country’s eastern background of profound cultural and social Germany, as well as the entire European Economic Union), the Ukrainian govern- part from the Ukrainian state. tensions. The analyses and opinions of our Union, will not remain unaffected by this ment under Prime Minister Mykola Asarow interview partners also represent a snapshot trend-setting decision. suspended rather abruptly its preparation It became clear to all participants that this of the signing of the association agreement meant the end of the European security with the EU on 21st November 2013. This system as laid down in the OSCE’s Paris marked the beginning of mass protests on Charter of 1990. However, it still remained Kyiv’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence unclear where this escalating violence would Square). After the Euromaidan protests end. Not long before, European history had which lasted for weeks, special units of developed with such dynamics in October 18 19 the Ukrainian Interior Ministry proceeded and November 1989 that, after months-long against the demonstrators in Kyiv with brute protests in East Germany, the Berlin Wall force in February 2014. More than 80 people was brought down resulting in the collapse fell victim to the barrage of gunfire by the of the SED-regime. Berkut-units. Today, four years after the Euromaidan, Immediately afterwards, events followed in Ukraine is a geopolitical no-man’s-land quick succession: while Viktor Yanukovych, between the East and the West. Moscow, after the Maidan massacre, fled to Moscow, admittedly, has not reached its military and Putin tried to recover as much as possible of political objectives in Eastern Ukraine, but Russian interests in Ukraine. After removing it can be sure that the West will not support the legitimate Crimean government from Kyiv militarily should the conflict in the office and following initial outbreaks of vio- Donbas escalate. Thus, a further escalation of lence in the Crimean capital of Simferopol, this low-intensity conflict threatens to turn Russian troops occupied Ukrainian mili- into a drawn-out proxy-war between Russia tary bases as well as important hubs of the and the West. infrastructure on the peninsula in a surprise attack. Hastily, Putin made Crimea’s puppet At the same time, there is a growing fear regime organize a pseudo-referendum on 16th both, in the country and in the international March 2014 to create the impression that community, that the impetus for reforms will the population of the Crimea voted for the abate and the population’s high expectations annexation of the peninsula to the Russian with regard to the country’s structural chang- Federation. Only two days after that “refer- es will increasingly be disappointed. endum,” a treaty was signed in the Krem- lin on Crimea’s accession to the Russian Against this – rather sobering – background, Federation (this included also the city of 44 discussions took place with Ukraine-ex- Sevastopol). The treaty was ratified by the perts in Germany between September and 1. Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption

21

n Germany, the interest in Ukraine is I extremely volatile, the picture of Ukraine is interspersed with stereotypes and general ascriptions. While the public awareness vacil- lates between indifference in times of appar- ent uneventfulness and dedicated solidarity in times of crisis, the stereotype picture of Ukraine is located along “four Cs”: Crimea, Confrontation, Crisis, Corruption. The overall tenor is: “Germany perceives Ukraine primarily as a country of crisis and war. Oth- er news hardly manages to reach the German mass media – except, perhaps, corruption and reform deadlock. But you do not learn anything about successful achievements and new opportunities for the young generation’s creativity.”

In any case, “the knowledge in Germany “The discussion in Germany is too much about Ukraine is characterized by many mis- preoccupied with problems. If you turn the tables understandings,” a young East Europe expert and focus on the enormous potential of Ukraine, which is predominantly pro-European, we then explains. “These range from the Russian talk about a country on the move which could claims to power regarding Crimea to sinister boost the EU considerably.” (856) reports on fascist influences in the country.” Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption

“The majority of the German population “Germany perceives Ukraine primarily as a continues to assume that Ukrainians live all over country of crisis and war. Other news hardly Ukraine – except in the East and on Crimea manages to reach the German mass media – where Russians live. This is more or less the except, perhaps, corruption and reform deadlock. degree of awareness on the part of the broad But you do not learn anything about successful majority.” (879) achievements and new opportunities for the young generation’s creativity.” (661)

22 23 Such distorted pictures date back to the Primarily, Germans appear to approach I did learn something about agriculture and et people were walking through Austria.” It is Russian media- and propaganda campaign in Ukraine via Russia. “For the ordinary Europe’s granary, but I did not perceive always the look through one’s own glasses or a 2014-2015. Russia then successfully managed German, Ukraine is an unknown country Ukraine as an autonomous country until I distorted prism that constitutes people’s view to spread disinformation and to exercise ille- which is frequently seen as part of the So- had started my professional life.” on Ukraine; you scarcely encounter unbiased, gitimate influence, a Berlin media professional viet Union, and later of Russia. Ukrainian neutral observations. believes. Consequently, the majority of the language and culture are considered local A middle-aged politician expresses her senti- German population continues to assume that variants of Russian culture.” Thus, the per- ments in a similar fashion: “Until the mid- In any case, what dominates the general per- “Ukrainians live all over Ukraine – except in ception of Ukraine as a country independent 1990s, I did not perceive Ukraine as a nation ception is the stifling notion of a sobering, the East and on Crimea where Russians live.” from Russia is by no means a commonplace. of her own. Those expressions of nationalism post-Soviet lack of perspective – due to the “It takes quite some time for Germans to which I heard in Kyiv felt rather uncomfort- political and economic stagnation and the In any case, it is the impression of our interview realize that Ukraine is not Russia.” Admit- able. However, this changed considerably; the sluggish reform efforts (in the fields of decen- partners that the Germans display a high degree tedly, most Germans are aware that “within ‘’ and the events on the tralization, anti-corruption, the legal, police of ignorance: “Whenever Ukraine becomes Ukraine, a kind of battle takes place be- Maidan aroused my emotions very much.” and health system etc.). Moreover, the opinion the subject of conversation”, says one of them, tween the East and the West.” Nevertheless, Also, there must have been differences in the is voiced that “most of all, it is the corrupt “I am often confronted with quite undifferenti- some people in Germany would like to see a perceptions of Ukraine between East Germans and unreliable decision-makers who spoil the ated perceptions. Frequently, clichés are drawn, neutral Ukraine between Russia and the EU. and West Germans. “What strikes me,” a me- Ukrainian image abroad.” This negative imag- and quite often Ukraine is still seen as part of “Quite often, there is a lack of understanding dia professional from Berlin who is married to ine reaches as far as the question whether the Russia or the former Soviet Union.” Anoth- for Ukraine’s desire to be independent and a Ukrainian said, “is the fact that frequently Germans would even be prepared to support er complains: “The Germans know very little responsible for her own development, just older people from the former GDR are fervent Ukraine in her struggle for independence with about Ukraine, her history and her problems. like any other country.” Putinists and sympathizers of Russia. They re- military equipment if necessary: “If Ukraine Nobody here is aware of the size of this country gard Ukraine as a radical right-wing, national- was as transparent as Estonia, it would be which once possessed many nuclear weapons. Some interview partners reveal an insight into istic country which would have never adopted much easier to argue in Germany in favour of For Germans, Ukraine is quite far away”, says their own, step-by-step approach to Ukraine a European perspective but for the Euro- supporting Ukraine with defensive weapons.” one of the interviewees. “After all, many Ger- as an independent subject under interna- maidan.” And yet another discussion partner mans take Tchaikovsky to be a Pole” – all in all tional law – a fact which previously would shares with us her very different “experience of Ultimately, the Ukraine experts whom we eloquent examples of the wide-spread igno- have hardly been conceivable even for them: enlightenment:” “When I was in Lviv for the interviewed expect more solidarity and rance, according to several interview partners. “When talking about Ukraine back at school, first time, I had the impression as if post-Sovi- attention for a country whose stability and Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption

integrity is threatened: “The attitude [of the “For me, the Euromaidan, along with the collapse Germans] towards Ukraine is more scepti- cal and less benevolent. After all, you would of the Berlin Wall, was the greatest political- really expect a different stance towards a country struggling for independence and historical event in my personal experience.” (686) democratic structures.” This means that the expectations of those who have closely accompanied Ukraine’s development would be that of showing “more solidarity.” “What I first associate with Ukraine, is solidarity – a solidarity she deserves from us Europeans. For Ukraine is a fascinating country with a great potential in so many areas.” Unfortu- nately, the Germans’ “sympathy-resource” 24 25 for Ukraine is quite limited; “we muster up However, the Kyiv events in the winter of awareness.” Altogether, “the media picture of more understanding for Russia and have too 2013/2014 have not only changed the picture Ukraine has clearly become more diverse and little experience with Ukrainian politicians.” of Ukraine in Germany; they have also shaped more informed. With regard to the general In any case, Brussels currently sees Ukraine the people themselves. This is what a woman population, however, people have remained as a financial and political burden, “whose explains: “The first political events that will badly informed in the most obvious ways.” And EU-membership would be much too strenu- be remembered by my children will not be the a interview partner from Berlin adds – quite ous and complicated.” Federal Election in 2013, but the Euromaidan disillusioned: “However, this observation prob- and Putin.” And an interviewee from Munich ably holds true for most of the countries…” Euromaidan: Changing Perceptions adds almost euphorically: “For me, the Euro- maidan, along with the collapse of the Berlin And yet, although the Germans, in the opin- The Euromaidan has led to a changed and Wall, was the greatest political-historical event ion of many interviewees, are now better more differentiated perception of Ukraine in in my personal experience.” Another man informed about Ukraine, draw a more differ- Germany – it was the association agreement happened to be present on the Maidan during entiated picture and recognize the EU’s and with the EU, after all, which triggered the the protests; the impression left on him by Germany’s responsibility for Ukraine, this conflict, and Germany played a significant what happened cannot only be read between perspective could fade again soon. For the de- role in the settling of the conflict. “In Germa- the lines: “What has shaped me incredibly lays of the reforms in Ukraine have a disillu- ny, the Euromaidan strongly influenced and were the events of the ‘Orange Revolution’ sioning effect: “When, in September 2015, I even changed the perception of Ukraine,” a and particularly my presence on the Maidan in went to Ukraine for the first time, I basically young man describes his impressions. “In the January and February 2014. I stood amongst had a sympathetic attitude on account of the meantime, people have started to distinguish the barricades.” Maidan events. However, in the aftermath of between Ukraine as an autonomous country my talks, I became disillusioned – because of and Russia.” And another one adds: “The For a long time, these events moved Ukraine the many difficulties to change the country.” relationship to Ukraine has changed in the into the focus of media coverage. Moreover, This is the more surprising as the ratified aftermath of the Maidan – now it seems to be “the widespread efforts to uphold the contacts Association Agreement with the EU seems to of interest what kind of country Ukraine really through increased travel activities by foreign be a chance to turn the Revolution of Dignity is. People have begun to perceive Ukraine as “My friends used to have many stereotypes regarding ministers, presidents, politicians and mayors into a success and to modernize and trans- an independent unit.” Ukraine. This has changed after 2014.” (499) have shifted Ukraine sustainably into people’s form Ukraine. Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption

Donbas-Ukrainians Deserve More Solidarity

Some of the talks focused on the situation An academic from Berlin shares the view that of the people in Eastern Ukraine — i.e. that the conflict in the Donbas cannot be resolved part of the country which has been gov- militarily, but only if Ukraine offers the more erned by separatists since spring 2014 and attractive option; after all, Ukraine is facing a whose population has been suffering from “competition of living standards” with Russia. military conflicts until the present day. This could “take a very long time.”

Any view on this region is characterized by In reality, however, Kyiv is not interested resignation, but also by a high degree of in the situation of the people in Eastern 26 solidarity for the distressed population. Ac- Ukraine — a fact which, sooner or later, will 27 cording to a discussion partner from Berlin, have consequences for the country’s internal it may be correct that the Donbas is ruled unity. “As long as Kyiv does not care for the by “a criminal regime”; however, it seems people’s quality of living in Eastern Ukraine, important “not to criminalize” the entire those people will remain indifferent to the population. Obviously, not everybody was question by which corrupt elite they are aware “that in the East the same people governed. Why should the East of the country would exist sharing the same interests and be motivated to follow Kyiv’s ambitions with the same aspirations.” Instead, “these peo- regard to a Western alignment if this does ple would be pushed over to the Russian not change their living prospects at all?” side” suggesting that they were not genuine Ukrainians. And the same would hold true A similar experience was made by an for the people on Crimea. academic from Hamburg when he travelled to Eastern Ukraine: “I talked to the people It is frequently heard that people in East- of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk”, he said. “The ern Ukraine “were afraid of Kyiv” fearing overall tenor was: ‘It is all the same to us repressions if Ukraine should reunite at any if we are Russians or Ukrainians. We only time in the future. However, “Kyiv’s aggres- want to live in peace.’ After all, they only The result: The interest of the media – and sive policy is bound to result in an increas- wanted to live a normal life.“ thus the attention of the German public for ingly stronger rupture.” What is needed to Ukraine – diminishes continually. “Ukraine maintain the country’s unity is the exact The fact that this region is about to turn has ceased to play a significant role in the opposite: “The border territories in Eastern its back to Kyiv, can also be explained by media.” In the short term, Ukraine may still Ukraine must be promoted economical- Kyiv’s economic policy during the last de- represent herself as a victim thus hoping for “In Germany, Ukraine is often identified with war and crisis. Owing to the news, people ask how one ly more than other regions. They should cades: “The Donbas has always been more international support. This, however, may not can fly to Ukraine at all and if one has to wear become shop windows towards Russia and exploited than promoted,” says an observer last long enough: “What is needed is a positive bullet-proof vests during one’s stay. Most people are the separatists.” from Berlin. image – and this can only be achieved by open not aware that the war only takes place in a small > communication.” part of the country.” (872) Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption

In contrast, another observer criticizes the a division of the country into a (Russophile) with some commentators: Kyiv should “be There is quite a bit of hope that the night- continuing focus on the situation in Eastern eastern part and a (Europhile) western part pleased,” says a journalist from Berlin, mare in Eastern Ukraine could one day Ukraine talking of a “Donbasization” with would not be the best solution. “that the country’s future will no longer be end peacefully — even at the price of the regard to the debate on Ukraine’s future. determined by the pro-Russian regions.” loss of Crimea: “In ten years from now, the Clearly: The Minsk Agreements are cer- For, after all, the country is drifting apart Only a few observers believe that a divi- scenario will be that Russia is no longer tainly important, but “the reforms are even more clearly than at any other time in sion of the country could also bring about involved in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea is more important for the country’s future. recent history. The country appears to be some advantages — if at all, it would only no longer autonomous, but an independent Both developments must run in parallel.” “internally divided into one part which has benefit the Western part of Ukraine. state,” says a journalist from Berlin. The Kyiv government should no longer use been drawn into the war, and another part the war in the Donbas as an excuse for which has been spared from this fate.” 28 delayed reforms which are urgently needed. That part which lives in peace does not 29 sufficiently face up to the war, according From the interview partners’ point of view, to a politician from Berlin. “Whoever does all this illustrates the fact that the country not know the war, does not understand the The Role of German Media: More During the Maidan, German media outlets lacks an active internal debate on the fu- current situation the country finds itself in.” Quality, More Topics, Please! had no correspondents of their own in Kyiv; ture of the Donbas within a unified Ukraine: Given such a situation, the development of a instead, Ukraine was mostly covered by cor- “I found it totally disturbing that most of national identity seems almost impossible. In the opinion of several interviewees, the respondents who had their offices in Warsaw the intellectuals in Western Ukraine did not When became president German media play a decisive role with and Moscow. Initially, this shaped the picture realize that some kind of communication in 2014, there was still talk about a unified regard to generating images of Ukraine in which was drawn of the conflict. Even today, had to be attempted with the population of Ukraine, says a young expert on Eastern Eu- the German public. Knowing quite well that four years after the events on the Maidan, Eastern Ukraine.” rope from Munich. However, the division of the media is driven by events and that the only two correspondents work permanently in the country has advanced rapidly ever since. journalistic credo “Bad news is good news” Ukraine. “Unfortunately, they find it diffi- Instead, there has been — ever since the His assumption: “The mobilizing force of the applies even today, many interview partners cult to place any articles in the print media, Orange Revolution of 2004 — a debate on a war does not seem to be strong enough to address the role of the media as social opinion as there is no interest in this country.” As the possible separation of Eastern Ukraine, es- overcome the elements of separation.” makers. bulk of the news coverage continues to be pecially in the West of the country: “Within masterminded from Warsaw and Moscow, the the intelligentsia, there are discourses Other observers, such as an academic from A media professional from Berlin pointedly circle closes: in the course of daily reporting, which amount to a renunciation of the Don- Eastern Germany, believe that the war has articulates his perceptions: “The year 2015 Ukraine is bound “to be at a losing end.” bas. However, such an option appears total- accelerated further the country’s separa- was an open window providing an oppor- ly inconceivable on the grounds of solidar- tion: “In the 1990s, Ukraine was a country tunity for more attention from Germany.” Whereas the Maidan, the annexation of ity and also in view of the death toll. This more unified.” This window has already closed again. Such Crimea and the subsequent war in Eastern would be perceived by the population as a development, however, should not make Ukraine represented the highlights of media betraying one’s own people.” And yet, these Such statements reveal a profound in- us wish that something bad must happen in coverage in Germany, this wave is flattening perceptions describe underlying phenomena: security with regard to the prospects of Ukraine to generate more attention in Ger- out more and more. According to a widespread for quite some time, there has been an (un- a unified Ukraine — a kind of insecurity many.” And another commentator says: “It is perception amongst the interviewees, today official) discussion on the question whether which expresses itself as sheer cynicism > only in times of crisis that Germany receives nobody in Germany shows any interest in the any news about Ukraine.” Ukrainians’ economic and social situation. Images of Ukraine: Crimea, War, Crisis, Corruption

“There are only three Ukrainian topics which arouse any attention in Germany: Chernobyl, the 1941 mass-killing of Kyiv Jews in Babyn Jar, and the war in Eastern Ukraine. Other topics do not meet any interest or they are difficult to communicate.” (705)

30 31

There are, after all, “only three Ukrainian However, when the German media do cover “After all, their appeal and their effect are topics which arouse any attention in Germany: news from Ukraine at all, the quality of the rather limited; this fades out quickly again,” Chornobyl, the 1941 mass-killing of Kyiv Jews coverage has become considerably higher in a young media professional from Berlin in Babyn Yar, and the war in Eastern Ukraine. the meantime. Consequently, there is hardly believes. Such media tend to be mere “plat- Other topics do not meet any interest or they any news today which is based on unverified forms for world conspirators.” are difficult to communicate.” After the con- propaganda, as was the case in the years 2014 clusion of the Minsk Agreements, which at and 2015. However, it is still regarded as a problem that least contained the conflict initially, the inter- the coverage with regard to Ukraine continues est has abated once again. Meanwhile, the bigger media companies to be masterminded by correspondents who have employed experts on Russia to verify have their offices in Moscow or Warsaw. “You One interview partner goes as far as to allege the facts, and professional expertise with may as well stay in Berlin”, says a discussion that the Germans ultimately show an attitude of regard to Eastern Europe is promoted on a partner pointedly. Thus, the German media indifference towards the fate of the Ukrainians: wider scale. Today, the coverage in Ger- draw a reduced picture of Ukraine which “If, in the winter of 2014, the Berkut [“golden many on Ukraine appears to be “broad mostly appears to be crisis-driven: “Who, for eagle,” special police] units had shot dead as and well-balanced”, says a young academic instance, reports any stories on the successful many as 5000 people on the Maidan, the West from Frankfurt/Oder. According to him, migration of internal fugitives from Eastern would have scarcely reacted differently; ultimate- there is even enough room for the Russian Ukraine? Or about Ukrainian labour-migra- ly, even such a massacre would not have aroused perspective – reaching as far as the so- tion to Poland?” – asks an interview partner much interest.” The following assessment, called “‘sympathizers of Russia’ such as Ms. rhetorically who works in the media industry even though less cynical, points into a similar Krone-Schmalz.” himself. “German correspondents in Moscow “If, in the winter of 2014, the Berkut units had direction: “For the last 18 months, Ukraine has or Warsaw simply lack the focus on Ukraine.” shot dead as many as 5000 people on the Maidan, largely disappeared from the media. The news In any case, the influence of the Krem- the West would have scarcely reacted differently; Therefore, “Ukraine will have to ponder on does not even cover the Ukrainian people’s disil- lin-controlled media, such as Sputnik or ultimately, even such a massacre would not have the question how to reach the media in Ger- lusionment about the delayed reform process.” Russia Today, seems grossly overestimated. aroused much interest.” (707) many more effectively.” 2. Identities and Cultural Diversity

33

ractically, all interviews touched upon Pthree issues which, better than any oth- ers, can describe the country and its people: Ukraine’s cultural diversity, her beautiful landscape and the many-faceted identity of her people. In the opinion of the interview- ees, these features represent the greatest cap- ital for shaping the country’s future, though they also represent a historical burden.

However, one should not overestimate this diversity – similar to the often schematic assignment patterns of “East or West,” “EU or Russia.” The decisive question is whether the Ukrainian society will succeed in trans- forming the regional and cultural diversity and the different paths of history into a joint effort to shape the future with the help of a “For me, Ukraine is a ‘Europe en miniature’. She vibrant civil society and a dynamic elite. So could well be conceived as a model country for far, Ukraine tends to appear as “a frustrated Europe – given the diversity of languages, the country,” which, again and again, becomes different historical development of the individual entangled in endless repetitions of protests, regions, and the pluralistic character of the country. If the chosen path is successful, Ukraine could well renewal and failure – without reaping the become a model country within Europe.” (322) fruit of its labour. Identities and cultural diversity

Given the general diversity and, in particular, the diversity of languages, the rich cultur- “Today, the is more al heritage, the manifold historical currents popular than in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, and the pluralistic character, Ukraine could well be conceived as a portrayal of Europe. bilingualism is taken for granted in society. The country resembles a “Europe en minia- ture”, in that it incorporates all that signifies There are neither conflicts nor a division of Europe. “If the chosen path is successful, society with regard to languages.” (2) Ukraine could well become a model country within Europe” – at least this is the hope of some interviewees.

Other observers, however, choose to align Ukraine into her Central and East European 34 35 context perceiving her in the tradition of the through Kyiv, one only heard Russian spoken; this country do not claim to be Russians, but Polish-Lithuanian Kingdom. Others, again, this has changed considerably. Nowadays, one Russian-speaking Ukrainians.” consider Ukraine as deeply shaped by the hears quite a bit of Ukrainian.” Cossack Hetmanate which, during the 17th A long-standing expert on the country has a century, revolted against the Polish-Lithua- In the wake of the Orange Revolution in firm opinion about this matter – it reads like nian rule and have, ever since, managed to 2014, this pattern has changed altogether. It a warning. “The Ukrainization of the country defend their settlement areas – located in was particularly in the West that a “Back-to- will founder. Internationally, this exaggerated today’s Southern Ukraine – against the on- Europe” mentality asserted itself when people strategy of nationalization is being observed slaught of invaders. began to remember their own cultural identity. with a great deal of scepticism. By eliminat- ing everything Russian, Ukraine is likely to Bilingualism Once again, the events in winter 2013/2014 create problems for herself. One should come on the Kyiv Maidan as well as the war in the to terms with each other, because one cannot Looking at present-day Ukraine, it is the country’s east have provided the Ukrainian simply forbid cultures and identities which people’s bilingualism that strikes you first of language with a new function: It has become have been growing over centuries.” Bilingual- all. Most Ukrainians, in their daily lives, speak an expression of collective identity. The result: ism, however, is widely regarded as an asset. both Ukrainian and Russian – with different Ukrainian is increasingly spoken in public life There is a general consensus amongst the intensity, depending on the region and the without causing any conflict. Bilingualism has interviewees that the country is heterogeneous personal origin. Moreover, many people in become normality. and bilingual – “and this will not change in Ukraine have a command of a foreign lan- the future.” Not even decrees will be able to guage – mostly English or German. Some interviewees, however, adopt a critical alter this fact. position with regard to the Ukrainian govern- Even considering that bilingualism has always ment’s efforts to eliminate the Russian lan- Although it is understandable to strengthen belonged to Ukraine, one can still identify a guage from schools, the arts as well as cultural the country’s national identity in times of change over the past years: back in the 1990s, and daily life. “I know many Ukrainians who war, the ensuing picture of an increasingly one could hardly hear Ukrainian spoken on like speaking Russian and who have grown up nationalistic society remains worrisome. Even the streets; many people simply perceived it “During the 1990s, Kyiv seemed to be yet another with Pushkin. It is absolutely legitimate to be if the salience of Ukrainian nationalism has “as a Russian dialect:” “If one used to walk post-Soviet city – everyone spoke Russian.” (824) different. The people who speak Russian in been overestimated in Europe, it is bound to Identities and cultural diversity

play into the hands of the Kremlin: “For- wish to have good economic, political and bidding the and culture social ties with Russia.” (178) is neither democratic nor pluralistic. The anti-Russian attitude is tantamount to a pay- Cultural landscapes ment into the Russian account, as it destabi- lizes any efforts to democratize Ukraine.” In the course of our inteviews, several dis- cussion partners addressed Ukraine’s cultur- Moreover, the policy of Ukrainization is like- al and regional diversity; the country had ly to have effects on Ukrainian-European- generated a cultural landscape influenced German cooperation. A cultural expert from in many ways by neighbouring people via Germany explains: “Even we are not sure if common historical experience. “There are we should open a local exhibition in Russian places in Ukraine with an almost mythical or Ukrainian? And many Ukrainians are wor- aura, such as the St. Andrew’s Descent,1 the ried about losing their jobs or their chance Lavra Monastery, the Kyiv chestnut blossom 36 37 for promotion, because their Ukrainian is not season, the Potemkin Stairs in Odesa. If one good enough.” wrote a new travel guide describing these places – this would be a fascinating story for Apart from the economic disadvantages for many people.” “The Ukrainization of the country will founder. the country: “The fact that Russians are not Internationally, this exaggerated strategy of allowed any more to enter Ukraine, has a Irrespective of this beauty and the fascinating massive effect on tourism. In Kharkiv, the landscape, a grey veil of morbidity is hanging nationalization is being observed with a great deal airport is at a standstill, hotels and restaurants over the country: “Ukraine is a fine piece of are empty.” Europe boasting many beautiful places and of skepticism. By eliminating everything Russian, cities which, however, tend to be associated According to some experts, it would be a good with the negative stereotypes of Eastern Eu- Ukraine is likely to create problems for herself. idea to keep open the communication chan- rope – idle, depressive, backward.” Another One should come to terms with each other, because nels with Russia. Others, however, regard this interview partner sums up this phenomenon as a gateway for the Kremlin’s propaganda in in almost the same words: “In the regions, one cannot simply forbid cultures and identities times when Moscow has an obvious interest in there are beautiful landscapes, pretty vil- the country’s division. lages – but they are frequently dull, with which have been growing over centuries.” (645) a broken infrastructure, and with forsaken In any case, the overall consensus is reflected and depressive people.” People’s motivation by the following statement by an interview to change this situation and to tackle the partner from Berlin who sums up the dis- problems often comes to naught because of cussion about bilingualism or Ukrainization: a strong feeling of distrust in society. At the “Ukraine can only succeed if she perceives end of the day, everyone only looks after her- her bilingualism actively as a creative poten- or himself. It is only the close family structure tial avoiding to turn it into an ideological that continues to work; it is still regarded as issue. At the end of this war, Ukraine would the most important social tie in Ukraine.

1 Ukr.: Andriivsky uzviz, frequently called the Montmartre of Kyiv, connects the upper town with the former business district Podil. Identities and cultural diversity

“Ukraine can only succeed if she perceives her bilingualism actively as a creative potential avoiding to turn it into an ideological issue. At the end of this war, Ukraine would wish to have good economic, political and social ties with Russia.” (178)

38 39 The Classic Tradition and Cultural according to several interviewees, possesses a vis- All of them are perceived as ambassadors of an Life Today ible soft-power-potential – i.e. the ability to po- alert civil society which is shaping the present sition herself (and arouse interest) by means of unlike any other society in Eastern or Central Whenever famous Ukrainians are listed, it is cultural capital. Here, cultural professionals play Europe. “For Germany, Serhii Zhadan rep- frequently the Klychko (German: Klitschko) an essential role. “For me, Ukraine is a part of resents the voice from Kharkiv; and many will brothers who are mentioned first; followed by Europe – and this closeness must be shown. It is follow him.” (772) the names of artists, writers, musicians and oth- important for Ukrainian writers and musicians er cultural figures. Such a list does not include to make clear what Ukraine thinks – thereby us- Although many Ukrainian artists have any politicians or heads of state. “In Germany, ing the cultural prism. For the country’s proper reached cult status “amongst the hipsters of Ukraine is perceived via the Klychko brothers, positioning within Europe is hampered by war German cities and although even the sub-cul- but increasingly also via the Shakhtar Donetsk and crisis.” tural groups have discovered the creative aura [soccer team], too.2 I believe this comes first of Ukrainian culture,” it is difficult at present to people’s minds in Germany with regard to Culturally, Ukraine is perceived quite differently to win over a larger audience in Germa- Ukraine.” (874) in Germany: either through representatives of ny. What hampers the country’s successful classical literature (Mikhail Bulgakov, Nikolai positioning, is primarily its bad image as The conscious perception of Ukraine by many Gogol, Taras Shevchenko) – mostly, however, in an El Dorado for kleptocrats and oligarchs: Germans possibly began with the country’s the context of Russian high culture -, or through “The country’s image is dominated by deeply successful performance at the Eurovision Song the critical culture of the present (which has been rooted corruption, nepotism and oligarchical Contests and also when Ukraine hosted the prospering since the Euromaidan) with repre- rule. Ukraine has two faces: cosmopolitan European Football Championships in 2012 – sentatives like the young writer Serhii Zhadan and post-Soviet.” “these competitions have lifted Ukraine into (Depeche Mode, Big Mäc), the author Sonya the Germans’ mental map.” (570) Koshkina (Maidan, together with Max Levin), What strikes the interviewees is the motiva- through such unusual performance artists like tion of many Ukrainian artists to commit Irrespective of the simplistic knowledge about the Roofer “Mustang Wanted” or the Rock Band themselves to a national project without being “What constitutes the Ukrainian identity? One “Okean Elzy” (Elsa’s Ocean) founded in 1994. nationalists. In a country which is considerably the country’s culture and identity, Ukraine, speaks two languages, there are writers such as Bulgakov or Gogol who were born in Ukraine – divided, artists make an important contribu- 2 Shakhtar Donetsk is a Ukrainian football club from the East Ukrainian city of Donetsk which plays in the first division. but are considered Russian writers.” (40) tion in the search for statehood and identity. Identities and cultural diversity

To reach this aim, contributions are also made by journalists – such as those from the station “1+1” – who provide sophisticated reports about the country, enriched by regional items, news and entertainment.

Major concern has been caused by an in- crease of repression and violence against socially critical artists: in the absence of an official censorship, attacks on artists have become more frequent. This goes even so far that the destruction of works of art has been left without any interest by state authorities to prosecute the perpetrators. “Ukraine must 40 41 be strong enough to endure such criticism; and cultural professionals must be protected,” says a young academic. religion plays a greater social role in Ukraine a decline of religiosity, particularly among the than in, say, Russia – but it is neither instru- young generation – and they give a reason for Religion and Religiosity mentalized politically nor does it show any this development: “Young people in Ukraine political bias. “In Ukraine, religion exercises show little enthusiasm and affection for reli- Ukraine’s diversity is not only reflected in a much smaller political influence than in gion, as they do not regard it as particularly her (daily) culture, but also in her religios- Orthodox neighbouring countries.” helpful in critical situations.” Another explana- ity and in the diversity of her confessions tion of the growing secularization of Ukrainian and churches. Although the majority of the It is for this very reason that the churches society is its increasing individualization. believers still belong to the Christian-Ortho- could fulfil an important function, as the dox Moscow Patriarchate, there has been a religious diversity and the mutual tolerance Open-Mindedness and Individuality shift towards the Kyiv Patriarchate. During among the churches is considered one of the the Euromaidan, many West Ukrainian country’s strengths. Churches “are import- Many interviewees emphasize the cordiality churches withdrew from the influence of the ant for the formation of identity. Ukraine and openness of Ukrainian men and women. Moscow Patriarchate, because they per- has always managed to cope with religious “Ukrainians are more cordial than Germans, ceived it as “Moscow’s fifth column” (chiefly differences.” And, what is more: “We should more hospitable, more open.” In Germany, because of the blessing of the separatists’ seek discourse with the churches” without “egoism and individualism” are more pro- weapons in the Donbass). Apart from the instrumentalizing them for political purposes nounced – and “that’s not nice”. Patriarchates, there is a comprehensive and or playing them off against each other. For active Roman-Catholic congregation (pri- the churches represent “important discussion According to the interview partners, Ukraine is marily in the West) and an Islamic parish in partners in the social negotiation of interests.” characterized by a stronger separation of public the South (Crimean Tatars). and private life, in comparison to Germany. Even though “Ukrainians are more tradition- In Ukraine, the family still takes top priority. “The country’s image is dominated by deeply- It is important to understand that there is rooted corruption, nepotism and oligarchical al and not as secular as Germans”, there is a But as soon as one is invited to a Ukrainian’s no state church in Ukraine; religiosity is rule. Ukraine has two faces: cosmopolitan and trend towards secularization within Ukrainian home, one becomes acquainted with people’s predominantly a private affair. Nevertheless, post-Soviet.” (570) society. Our discussion partners have observed cordiality, helpfulness and politeness. Identities and cultural diversity

42 43

“Ukrainians frequently live in blocks of flats or apartments. In most cases, both the facades and the staircases are outrightly terrible, but the flats or apartments are simply great. In principle, people only look after their own property – this At any rate, “people in Ukraine are very not so much directed against the individual open-minded, interested and ready to com- vis-à-vis person, but it comes “primarily from is a kind of Ukrainian individualism.” (380) municate” – particularly “in comparison with the Ukrainians’ experience of being cheated other post-Soviet countries.” A simple exam- again and again. Against this background, ple may illustrate this attitude – eye-contact. their caution is quite understandable.” “When you walk along the streets looking at people, they look back”, a journalist from Broadly speaking, there is a clear trend Berlin reports. “When you smile at them, towards individualization. At any rate, they smile back at you. In Moscow, in con- Ukrainians are more individualistic than Rus- trast, people are reserved.” sians – involving positive and negative im- plications: positively, “there is a tendency to Unfortunately, this open-mindedness tends focus on one’s own development and career.” to be lost more and more. “People want to At the same time, however, there is a fear convey the impression of being efficient, Eu- of an emerging social cold-heartedness and ropean or American. There is no time left for increasing “elbow-mentality” – “exactly what friendliness any longer.” Moreover, people in happens among the Ukrainian oligarchs.” Ukraine lack trust. “There is a latent feeling After all, this seems to be the inevitable price of distrust in every personal contact.” This is of social development… Part I: 3. The Reform Agenda Determinants of and Social Change Social Change

45 lthough the intensity of German news self in a rather desolate condition these days), A coverage about Ukraine continues to the population’s wish for stability and prosper- decline, the country – four years after the ity is primarily associated with Europe. “After Euromaidan – is primarily perceived in all, this transformative appeal is confirmed by terms of its reform efforts. Here, the per- the progress of the Baltic States and Poland”, ceptions diverge considerably: they range one of the interviewees justifies this hopeful from a favourable description of successful attitude. Thus, the prospect of accession to achievements, e.g. the police reform, to bitter the EU represents an essential drive of the disappointment – such as still widespread Ukrainian reform agenda. corruption which reaches as far as the highest public offices. Successful Reforms and Reform Deadlock The interviewees extensively dealt with the prerequisites of successful reform efforts. They Depending on the actual perspective, discus- emphasize the relevant design and planning sions are characterized either by pointing out potential for Ukrainian society – provided successful achievements with regard to reform that correct political decisions would be made efforts – or by referring to the slowness of the and the problem of corruption could be tack- process. Depending on the point of view, the led successfully. Therefore, the reforms must glass is either half-empty or half-full. also focus on generating legal security, good governance and the fight against corruption. The critics among the interviewees only see gradual change in Ukraine. Many areas lack According to many interview partners, the necessary reforms: “There is a lack of laws European vision continues to have an unabat- regulating the work of the parliament and the ed appeal on the Ukrainian population. Even administration, a modern police force and a if an accession to the EU is still a matter of competitive education system”, says an academ- the remote future (with the EU presenting it- ic from Hamburg. Determinants of social change

there is hardly any other country in the world “We do not want democracy. We do not have any which, in such a short period of time, has economic competence. So, what else can we do? tackled so much under so difficult conditions. This achievement has not been sufficiently – Patriotism. This is the logic of the Ukrainian acknowledged by the West so far.” After all, one must understand that the transformation leadership.” (274) process is a long-term, drawn-out procedure; this is by no means a specifically Ukrainian phenomenon. Each individual progress already accomplished must be considered a great success, e.g. the stabilization of the currency and banking system, or the reform of the tax system. Although, in 2015, one had to put up with a massive currency depreciation of 50%, 46 47 A representative of the media is also scepti- government appears much too ambitious, a hyper-inflation could eventually be avoided. cal with regard to the further development of as it makes promises of a magnitude which Also, the economic decline has been stopped – Ukraine. “In my view,” she says, “the turning cannot possibly be met even under the most despite the war in Eastern Ukraine, a large point in this process was the ousting of the favourable circumstances. It is not only a number of internal migrants and the fact that ‘foreigners’ from the government.”1 And she question of random adjustments here and a Ukraine, practically overnight, had to com- adds: “Possibly, the forces of persistence (or the mini-reform there; what needs to be happen- pensate for the absence of imports from Russia forces of inertia) in Ukraine are much stronger, ing in Ukraine is a complete transformation (including the energy sector). All this requires after all.” of the constitutional order, a re-definition of time and patience. the role of the state with regard to its citizens, A young economic representative from Berlin and a political-cultural change. This begins “The situation in Ukraine has improved last remarks that she perceives the reform process as with a territorial re-structuring, followed by year: the currency has been stabilized, the “asynchronous and unbalanced.” On the one the modernization of large sectors of public labour market has eased, and the internal hand, there are the reformers who are beginning life – such as the police, the legal system, the migrants have been integrated into the daily to generate changes; “but on the other hand, health sector, and the extension of the infra- working routine.” Moreover, access to the cap- there does not seem to be much progress – par- structure – and it does not stop at securing ital market has made the Ukrainian govern- ticularly in the sphere of the oligarchs.” Altogeth- the role of the media and civil society as guar- ment more independent again from the EU er, there was a “lack of momentum” to create a antors of an open and pluralistic community. and the IMF, as funds from the capital market better society. However, the following verdict by are free of any conditions – a fact, however, a young academic is seldom heard. In his opin- Many observers emphasize the speed of the that may well have negative effects on the dy- ion, “Ukraine is currently moving into a wrong recent achievements, thus expressing a high namics of the reform process. direction in almost every area: there is not only a appreciation for what has been accomplished “With regard to Ukraine, I tend to think of reform lack of democracy, but also of economic growth.” during the past years: “In the country’s reform schemes. The country finds itself entangled in Other observers emphasize the successes with process, so many things have happened so almost unresolvable scenarios: a war in the East – regard to the country’s decentralization. For The more benevolent observers point out fast,” an analyst acknowledges the speed of first, the war must come to an end – so there is any progress in the decentralization of govern- no incentive for sustainable reforms. Plus the that the reform agenda of the Ukrainian the reforms. “I believe,” he continues, “that mental and administrative work strengthens fact that the politics of the day are determined by the oligarchs. Unfortunately, the influence of the the country by generating democratically legit- 1 This refers to the re-immigrating politicians of the post-Yanukovych era who were educated abroad. oligarchs has not changed significantly.” (740) imated authorities in the regions who would Determinants of social change

be permitted to utilize their own budgets on a local and regional level, believes an academic from Berlin.

In contrast, a political analyst, also from Ber- lin, appears to be more sceptical: for him, the decentralization reform is “the right instru- ment at the wrong time.” A weak state will be undermined further by strengthening regional centres of power. First of all, he explains, cen- tral reforms must achieve a strengthening of the state before any regional competences are extended.

48 However, another discussion partner disagrees, because he is convinced that “the decentral- ization reform represents the very prerequi- site for a long-term success of the attempted innovations in the country.” Decentralization will make people locally aware of their own “Each reformer in Ukraine, who is standing at the responsibility to cope with deficiencies and to forefront, deserves my full admiration.” (290) generate changes.

Some interviewees have an outrightly positive perception of the newly established Citizens Advice Bureaus. One of the discussion part- ners stated that he had become acquainted with the local administrative service-centre in Kharkiv where around 250 employees try to provide a good service to the citizens of their city: fast, efficient, without any corruption or an excessive bureaucracy. As far as public procurement is concerned, the introduction of an electronic tender system (called Prozorro which means “Transparent”) and the appoint- ment of ombudsmen have achieved a degree of transparency with regard to the allocation of public funds that would have been inconceiv- able only a few years ago. A young academic “For all the reforms, do not forget the Ukrainian from Berlin adds: “Each reformer in Ukraine, people. Long-term changes will not be generated who is standing at the forefront, deserves my by favorable economic data alone.” (683) „ Determinants of social change

“We should strike an honest balance of the reform progress and begin to focus on exchanging views with local people.” (614)

50 51 full admiration.” However, what must now be characterized by a dwindling standard of living changes even against opposition. However, tackled with particular attention is the reform and high inflation,” a media professional from “the politicians must be strong enough to of the electoral law as well as the fight against Berlin adds. overcome the painful implications of reforms corruption. before they can generate visible and positive On the other hand, the expectations cher- effects.” Hangover Symptoms and Growing ished by the Maidan-movement are regarded Pessimism in Reform Debates as much too high. “Reforms need time”, a Others, however, believe that the Ukrainians representative of German civil society brings to “slept away” the reforms. They had allowed Other observers report a growing disillusion- mind. “In the wake of the Maidan, extremely the establishment of an oligarchic system and ment within the Ukrainian population; many high expectations have been raised – both with a degree of corruption which even exceeds the regard the reform process as being not fast the people of Ukraine and with people in Ger- conditions in Russia. At least, “unlike Rus- enough. Changes are implemented too slowly; many. The expectations were so high that they sia, there have been social protests in Ukraine the majority of the population lacks an under- were bound to be disappointed.” against this political state of affairs.” standing of the rational and practical benefit of the innovations. Whatever, in Germany and in A political adviser from Berlin adds: “The All this shows that Ukraine has continued “to the EU, is considered a progress in Ukraine’s whole reform debate is tiring und causes head- be characterized by a weak state, but by strong reform efforts, does not reach the country’s aches. For it raises expectations which cannot oligarchs.” “Politics and economics are domi- population. For, ultimately, “the population is be fulfilled. The fact that the development of nated by oligarchs. They undermine the state interested in a palpable quality of living and institutions needs years and decades is com- and make sure that it will remain weak in the not in any promises for the future,” a young pletely overlooked.” future.” academic from Berlin warns. In view of the country’s difficult situation, “the Power and the Influence of the “We should strike an honest balance of whole debate is geared to crisis management Oligarchs the reform progress and begin to focus on and delivering short-term results.” There is no “In the wake of the Maidan, extremely high expectations have been raised – both with the exchanging views with local people.” The po- vision which goes beyond the abstract target Although, since the Euromaidan, the influ- people of Ukraine and with people in Germany. lice-reform, however, is explicitly mentioned of an accession to the EU. There is no political The expectations were so high that they were ence of the oligarchs has clearly diminished, as an exception. Apart from that, “the reality is determination or political courage to enforce bound to be disappointed.” (979) they have continued to exercise control over Determinants of social change

“As far as I am concerned, the reform debate is lacking a vision. How can Ukraine become attractive to her population? The whole debate is geared to crisis management and delivering short-term results. Thus, expectations are raised which cannot be fulfilled; and this leads to

52 frustrations on all sides.” (941) 53 practically every social sector: the econo- my, the political institutions as well as the media. The fact that even President Petro Poroshenko supports the Ukrainian oligar- chy hampers the development of democracy and of small and middle-sized enterprises. This means that the new forces “are still far from asserting themselves,” as the traditional forces of persistence (or the forces of iner- tia) have been too strong until the present day. “I tend to note a growing pessimism, particularly among the intellectuals and the Maidan-activists; they seem to think that they will not be able to massacre the hydra of the oligarchs.”

In the opinion of many observers, Poroshenko himself has meanwhile become “a big disap- pointment.” Initially, he was only supposed to moderate the transition. Now, however, he seems to be in love with the plenitude of pow- er just like his predecessors. Even if Poroshen- ko has been perceived differently in Germany so far – e.g. after his appearance at the Mu- nich Security Conference in 2015 – he “soon “This country makes me tired. I have a feeling that, after gaining visa exemption, the government has filled his pockets just as Viktor Yanukovych stopped doing anything.” (471) had done previously. Admittedly without Determinants of social change

oligarchs, the political system of Ukraine will which form a challenge to the oligarchs’ dom- “As long as Ukraine continues to be a rentier- not change. It is about time to negotiate a inant position in the media sector. Sometimes, state dominated by oligarchs, the political system deal with the oligarchs: exile abroad and im- this may lead to “struggles for power, influence punity in return for relinquishing power and and distribution” between the capital and the of Ukraine will not change. It is about time to breaking up the power cartels.” periphery.

negotiate a deal with the oligarchs: exile abroad Oligarchy and the Freedom So far, it is still safe to work as an independent and impunity in return for relinquishing power of the Press investigative journalist. The media in Ukraine are free – “especially in comparison with those and breaking up the power cartels.” (547) According to some interviewees, an example in Russia. But the scope of freedom is nar- of the continuing, if diminishing, influence rowing and threats are on the rise.” Again and of the oligarchs is the media landscape which again, there are attempts to suppress the free- finds itself in a state of transition. On the one dom of opinion and criticism. Journalists, for hand, there is freedom of the press and media example, would be vilified as unpatriotic when 54 55 any repressions, though.” Poroshenko does from the EU”, as well as those of the Venice pluralism and freedom of speech – marking they report critically on the war in the Don- not take any action against corruption – only Commission.2 an essential difference to other countries in bass. This damages democratic development, when it concerns his opponents. As a matter the post-Soviet region. On the other hand, as journalists are curbed in their most import- of fact, Petro Poroshenko still belongs to “the In contrast to such black-and white-painting, the media still continue to be controlled by ant task – to strengthen civil society. old elite and to the circle of oligarchs.” other discussion partners view the situation in oligarchs, an observer from Berlin, who works subtle shades of grey. “Ukraine, admittedly, is in the same line of business, knows. “The oli- Ukraine, after all, possesses “a great potential Consequently, “the influence of the oligarchs still a state strongly dominated by oligarchs;” garchs possess their own megaphone. This rep- of professional, investigative, talented journal- is still too big. The country will only be ready gradually, however, they will have to observe resents a big disadvantage for the forming of ists and media professionals,” a journalist from for reforms if the old elites have been re- the newly developed rules and regulations. public opinion and the pluralism of opinions.” Berlin knows. They work under difficult, often placed.” “Although it will not be easy to oust With a touch of irony, another interviewee re- life-threatening conditions, whereas indepen- the oligarchs from the political system, such plies: “I do not share the assumption that the What is lacking is a “respectful debate.” The dent journalism needs “legal protection by the a step would be absolutely necessary”, says a oligarchs will resume power in Ukraine again. media, controlled by oligarchs, tend to focus state, trust, recognition and support.” specialist for Eastern Europe from Hamburg. In fact, they have not given it up yet. Howev- on scandals rather than on substance. The jour- er, they are losing power increasingly and this nalistic quality is regarded as “a catastrophe.” For, ultimately, functioning media are “the This view is shared by a young academic from has become quite visible. At any rate, it will Journalists, employed by the oligarchs-con- litmus-test for a value-driven democratiza- Berlin: “My current perception of the coun- be a long process which can be realized by a trolled media, invariably write what the manag- tion.” Here, the West could definitely make try? Admittedly, there is some progress with combination of international and civil society ing editor expects them to write; the managing a positive contribution by honouring those regard to reforms, but the old political-eco- pressure.” editor creates a paper or a programme in line journalists who cover politics in a serious and nomic networks have managed to consolidate with the owner’s expectations – “journalism on professional manner – “a little bit of reputation themselves again.” And yet: the oligarchs’ One of the discussion partners even makes a demand.” through prizes and information campaigns.” scope of action has clearly diminished. “Now, proposal as to how the power of the oli- they must consider the political demands that garchs could be broken: “As long as Ukraine At the same time, there is a growing num- People’s Lack of Trust come from the Ukrainian population and continues to be a rentier-state dominated by ber of options under public law as well of as in the Political Elites citizens’ media. Several independent journal-

2 The European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission) is an institution of the Council of Europe. It was estab- ists are working “ambitiously on a vision of The debate on the role of the oligarchy in lished in March 1990 with the objective to give advice to Central and Eastern European states on constitutional matters which "are independent media.” Many places witness the public life illustrates one thing in particu- consistent with the norms of the European status of constitutionality." See: http://www.venice.coe.int/WebForms/pages/ ?p=01_Pre- sentation&lang=DE. development of internet-based media options lar: within the population, there is a lack of Determinants of social change

56 57 trust in the political elites. According to the perception of several discussion partners, the political class is exclusively interested in the maintenance of power. There is hardly any sign of a disposition for political change.

It was especially “Yanukovych’s clumsy handling of Ukraine’s interests” during the Maidan crisis which created “a correct im- pression of post-Soviet power policy” in the West: “Political elites protect their claim to power against the interests of the people,” a political analyst from Berlin notes. His conclusion: “It would be already a big step interested in political change. “The govern- that it is genuinely determined to promote forward, if Ukrainians regained trust in their ment does not want any reforms; the holders reforms in cooperation with the population,” political class.” of power consider their own interests more says a young woman from Berlin. than those of the country,” says a young However, even after the Euromaidan it has academic. And an academic colleague from A media professional is almost lenient with not been possible to build a relationship of Berlin adds: “I think there is not enough the protagonists: according to her, the trust between citizens and political elites. In political determination to bring about a country’s political tensions simply reflect large parts of the population, there is “a mix- genuine change and to promote any reform the long-existing conflicts of interest among ture of anger and disappointment.” Another processes. There is quite a strong interaction the regions. This is where “the forces are discussion partner considers it “vicious and between politics and the economy – person- located which hamper any and deplorable” that “Ukraine is well and truly ified by Poroshenko himself.” Ultimately, any changes.” Under these circumstances, run against the wall by its political elites,” the Ukrainian government can only gain it would be “very difficult to do justice to and that the people “had not deserved” such trust “by acting rather than by talking. It society and to take into account everyone’s “Functioning media are the litmus-test for a value- must make clear through its political actions opinion.” a treatment. The political elites are not really driven democratization.” Sectoral reforms — a divided response

“What I liked personally, is the introduction Part II: of measuring equipment where you can personally control the consumption of gas and Sectoral Reforms: heat. Ukrainians adopt more and more self- A Divided Response responsibility.” (357)

58 59 f one takes a deeper look analysing the prog- court – both essential demands by the re- In the opinion of many observers, a successful Iress of partial reforms within different fields formers. Consequently, there is an equivalent reform of the judicial system is also a pre- of politics, a multi-grained picture emerges. resistance by the ruling elites, some of our requisite for the Ukrainian economy to gain Whereas our discussion partners record some discussion partners think. international access, because a lack of legal degree of progress with regard to, say, the security – for instance, in civil and property reconstruction of the police force and the es- It will be decisive whether the principle of law – would hamper the acquisition of foreign tablishment of Citizens’ Advice Bureaus, there constitutionality will assert itself in all pub- investors. is a deadlock in other areas – e.g. in the judicial lic concerns. This, however, presupposes a system and the health sector. consensus on both sides – the political elite, The Energy Sector as a Key on the one hand, and civil society, on the Reform Field The following chapter contains topics in accor- other. Some observers regard the establish- dance with the selection and emphases of our ment of an anti-corruption court as “a big Apart from the conflict about the distribution discussion partners. step forward,” only to note a lack of political of power in the country, Ukraine, in the de- determination to finally install such a court cade between the Orange Revolution and the Problem Area Judiciary: An Only and recognize it as an independent authority. Euromaidan, mostly gained attention of the a Half-Hearted Mini-Reform of the However, all the discussion partners who have German public through her gas dispute with Police, so far addressed this issue agree that “the success or Russia. Once before already, a topic associat- failure of the reforms will ultimately depend ed with energy had catapulted Ukraine into There is hardly any other sector mentioned on the issue of corruption.” (612) After all, it the limelight of global attention – the nuclear more often as an example of lacking reform is President Petro Poroshenko who will even- disaster of Chornobyl in April 1986. efforts than the judicial sector. Its state of tually decide on what actions to take. Driven affairs is considered an outright symbol of the by selfish interests, however, “he does exactly In fact, the energy supply represents one of seriousness, credibility, and determination of the opposite,” says a young academic. And, the central issues in the current reform debate, reform efforts in general. For, the country’s he continues, Ukraine’s central problem is a discussion partner from the German NGO her judicial system. “The reform of the police future distribution of power will eventually “In my opinion, the biggest problem in the current scene explains. He even thinks that “modern- be decided by the reform of the electoral law reform process is the reform of the judicial system. forces has merely been a token reform which ization of the energy supply represents the key or the development of an anti-corruption Here, the strongest resistance can be observed.” (904) is clearly not enough.” to Ukraine’s economic recovery.” Sectoral reforms — a divided response

Ukraine, admittedly, is still supplying herself generation who wants an ecologically sustain- “After eating a shashlik, people tend to leave a with energy from nuclear power to a large ex- able Ukraine, some of our discussion partners tent – partly in order to become more indepen- report. On the other hand, there is an unre- lot of waste in the forest. If one returns to the dent from energy imports. However, “there are solved ecological legacy, such as the damaged many efforts to use alternative energy sources.” nuclear reactor in Chornobyl or the outdated forest again, one simply looks for a new spot. For Monopolistic structures are increasingly broken coking plants in Eastern Ukraine. It is also the up and strong efforts are made to diversify the increasing illegal overlogging of forests that is some, this is an expression of freedom – for me, entire energy sector. This applies primarily causing a big headache. In comparison with it is nonsense.” (476) to the Ukrainian gas-monopolist “Naftohaz” these deficits, recurring daily phenomena, such which has been “particularly prone to corrup- as unlawful waste disposal, appear to be noth- tion in the past.” The problem, however, has ing more than trivial offences. largely been solved now through “a profession- alization of the corporation’s management.” During the 1990s, there was still no awareness of environmental issues in Ukraine; this, how- Another observer remains more sceptical: in ever, has changed in the meantime, an expert 60 61 Ukraine, alternative energy sources are still from Frankfurt/Oder confirms: “Young people in Ukraine as well as a German-Ukrainian ately. The country’s health system is outdated, underdeveloped – “there is no long-term plan- are well trained and educated, and they have exchange of young foresters. the facilities of the hospitals are insufficient, ning, although generating alternative energy begun to work on operating waste disposal, and the payment is not high enough to have could bring about independence from Russia.” waste combustion, and a reduction of waste. As much as these initiatives are welcome – in a deterrent effect against corruption. How- What they want is a ‘green Ukraine’.” view of the imminent problems, such pro- ever, there are also such examples as the Another discussion partner knows that current- grammes are at best apt to create a better e-health-model which show that progress can ly Ukraine no longer imports any natural gas Even though the Ukrainian environmental awareness. Moreover, the legacy of Chornobyl be made in Ukraine despite a lack of funds. from Russia, but from the West. In addition, image continues to be shaped by the nuclear remains unresolved with “further environmen- there may be shale gas from domestic pro- disaster of Chornobyl, there is now “a giant tal disasters” looming ahead. “Only think of An expert on Ukraine reports that, ever since duction. If things are tackled efficiently, there potential to build a clean economy in Ukraine the many coking plants in Eastern Ukraine,” a the collapse of the Soviet Union, “the health will be “favourable conditions for Ukraine to which may serve as a basis for a positive in- member of the European Parliament remem- system has not changed at all;” the facilities of become an energy exporter within three to five ternational image,” a political analyst from bers. “These are chemical time bombs” which the hospitals have remained at the level of the years” – particularly if the country makes prog- Berlin assures. could lead to catastrophes similar to the one 1980s. ress with its efforts to increase energy efficiency. in the Indian Bhopal.1 But so far nobody has A discussion partner from Berlin is confident However, the protection of the environment taken notice. Officially, health care is free of charge, but believing in the country’s transformative pow- is still an issue that is “widely neglected.” there is no compulsory health care prescribed er: “If you are under pressure and if you are After all, the country “has more important “The public health system by law. The result: although there are good guided wisely, this will boost innovations in the things to do” – such as fighting a war in is a catastrophe.” doctors, the hospitals lack the necessary country” – such a momentum will apply to the Eastern Ukraine. The result is that nobody financial resources. “Owing to the budget energy sector more than to any other sector. is prepared to address even such drastic en- One of the most important issues in the situation, the state health system is a catastro- vironmental crimes as the large-scale illegal Ukrainian government’s reform efforts is the phe. Only those who have enough money, New Environmental Awareness, the logging in the Carpathian Mountains on the modernization of the health system – it is here receive any treatment.” A lack of money is Ecological Legacy and Environmental border to Romania. It is here that “Mafia-like that the population would benefit immedi- also the reason why private clinics attempt Crimes networks” are allowed to act unrestricted-

ly – owing to “non-existing state-control.” 1 On 3rd December 1984, there was an explosion in one of the factories of the US-American chemical company Union Carbide in the In Ukraine, a new environmental awareness Meanwhile, however, there is at least a pro- central Indian state of Bhopal – releasing several tons of methylisocyanate, a toxic substance for the production of pesticides. It is estimated that the accident claimed the lives of between 10,000 and 25,000 people; a further 100,000 – possibly up to 500,000 – has developed. It is particularly the young gramme for a sustainable forest management people were injured. Sectoral reforms — a divided response

to sell operations “which are definitely not External Security: Forming Alliances a balance of interests in questions of security, necessary.” Moreover, a lack of money is also or Remaining in Isolation? only diplomatic means should be applied and the cause of corruption and dubious business no violence. deals reaching as far as the political circles, In Ukraine, security is an omnipresent issue. an NGO representative from Berlin reports: If you think of Ukraine, you invariably think Different from the police system, the recon- “The Ukrainian Health Ministry is totally of war and conflict, says a medium-aged struction of the secret services has not even infested and corrupt. International organiza- academic. “The conflict in the Donbas is the been tackled: after the Maidan, the internal tions have taken over the complete procure- only shooting war in Europe – we are begin- secret service SBU does not seem “compatible ment system.” ning to forget this.” with Ukraine any more.” “To strengthen the population’s trust in the state, a reconstruction After all, a functioning health system, based However, security issues cannot only be re- of the secret services is of great significance on an efficient health insurance, is “terribly duced to the state of war in the country’s east and has long been overdue,” says a political important” for people’s quality of living – this alone; they apply to different aspects of daily expert from Berlin. implies that “the citizens must have access life including the war in Eastern Ukraine, the 62 63 to good doctors who do not have to be paid reform of the security services, the growing A media representative from Berlin believes ‘cash-in-hand’.” After all, any changes in the number of weapons and assassinations in the that Ukraine “appears to be on the right way health system are bound to be noticed quick- country, the mass traumatization and the gen- with regard to security: she is building alli- ly, thus leading to a more positive attitude to- eral desire for a comprehensive protection of ances.” After the NATO-summit in Bratisla- wards the government’s reform policy within human existence, for instance, by improving va, necessary steps have been taken towards the population. the public health system. All these unresolved a higher degree of collective security. “Now questions generate “a feeling of profound Russia is aware which countries must not be However, the assessment of a media pro- insecurity within the Ukrainian people,” a attacked by her,” says a security expert from fessional from Berlin is fairly sober: “The political adviser from Berlin knows from his Berlin who is in her sixties. Unfortunately, this Ukrainian health system will remain bad as own experience. has come too late for Ukraine. long as the people are not able to pay for the health care services. As soon as the standard However, the state of war in the country’s east Irrespective of the declarations of support by of living rises, the quality of medical care and the conflict with Russia remain the dom- the West, Ukraine is still in a state of shock will rise, too.” inating security issues. According to a senior about the alleged breach of the Budapest academic from Hamburg, it is quite obvious Memorandum; the West simply “did not keep The initiative to introduce an online-based where Ukraine’s adversaries come from: you its promises”. However, the discussion partners e-health-system is regarded as a glimmer of only have to look around towards the east, the do not elaborate on the repercussions of this hope on the horizon. Equipped with practi- west, the north and the south to realize “who breach of promise on the current relations. cally no funds, but with “enthusiasm, ability is standing at Ukraine’s fence.” and speed,” a system has been developed Some interviewees, however, make clear disregarding all obstacles and restrictions. Whereas, thanks to the implementation of the demands including German arms exports to Within the available means, a system has “The initiative to introduce an e-health-model police reform, there is good progress with re- Ukraine. “I am in favour of every country’s been introduced which forms a transpar- served me as an example for Ukrainians’ strength. gard to internal security (including more con- self-defence and, consequently, I advocate Equipped with practically no funds, but with ent network between doctors, patients and trol of corruption), Ukraine does not seem to German arms exports to Ukraine,” says a great enthusiasm and ability, they have developed other health care institutions – similar to the young representative from Munich. The aim a system quite fast, initially focusing on the be able to build a security apparatus which can Prozorro (Transparent) e-tender procurement existing options and disregarding any existing withstand any external threats. This is why ex- is to contain the war in Eastern Ukraine, so it system for the public sector. obstacles and restrictions.“ (30) ternal help is still required. However, to reach cannot spread any further. And it is important Sectoral reforms — a divided response

“War is not an easy situation for the country. However, you cannot use it as an excuse or an explanation for a reform deadlock.” (425)

64 65 to protect the neighbouring cities of Odesa, violent clashes have increased dramatically. However, the longer implementation of re- society’s determination to stop offering bribe Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv which have re- “Whereas, previously, only blunt weapons forms will take and the more those reforms money in the future. The population will have mained intact so far. For any foreign invest- such as sticks or shields had been used, it is will be determined by conditions set by the to develop an awareness that “there are special ment is only possible in a safe environment. now armed weapons.” Arms deliveries would EU and IMF, the greater will be the danger things which cannot be ‘bought’ anymore.” That Germany even rejects supplying passive not make any easier the prevention of violence that “populists will argue against these reform Any infringements must be punished strin- equipment to the Ukrainian army is “absurd.” and the restoration of the state monopoly of efforts.” gently by prison sentences. Such a total ban has already resulted in the legitimate violence. fact that bullet-proof vests and winter-proof The Fight Against Corruption: According to an observer from Berlin, it boots are being smuggled from Germany to Altogether, a mixed picture emerges from the A Consistent Lip-Service appears to be quite simple. The fight against Ukraine “on a significant scale,” says a media discussions on the security issue: While the corruption equals the fight against smoking: professional from Berlin. war in the country’s east gradually fades into According to unanimous assessment of “Stop it once and for all! There is no other the background, questions of internal secu- almost all our interviewees, “corruption way. You cannot transform a corrupt system In Germany, too, we would have to think rity are gaining importance. And while the and missing constitutionality represent the step-by-step; corruption must be fought fast about what we can offer to the Ukrainians Ukrainian government could so far use the greatest obstacles for Ukraine’s development.” and instantly.” to improve their external security, a political challenges of the internal war to justify the This is also reflected on the concrete level of adviser from Berlin adds. “I also expect Ger- current reform deadlock, the patience of citi- cooperation; moreover, it is “the omnipresent A young political adviser from Berlin suggests man initiatives to advance Ukraine’s external zens with regard to this issue is dwindling fast. bureaucracy along with a lack of experience a different therapy: “The state must pay its security.” What Ukraine needs is a domestic with democratic processes” which hamper employees adequately” – so “the good ones” arms industry – especially now as significant “Gradually, the security issue fades into the cooperation, says a think-tank representative will remain within the system and the civil ser- parts of the old arms factories are situated in background and the reform issues gain the from Berlin. It is especially corruption and vants will be less tempted by corruption. the war zones. upper hand,” a young think-tank represen- bureaucracy which “strongly” shape the pic- tative from Berlin reports from his own field ture of Ukraine. A media professional from Berlin believes in Another interview partner – also a political studies on site. “The political elites can no drastic measures: “Germany and the EU have adviser from Berlin – explicitly disapproves of longer use the war in the Donbas as an excuse The fight against corruption will have to take reached a point where we will have to op- German arms exports to Ukraine. He argues for the reform deadlock. After all, this is why place fast and consistently in practically all ar- erate with ‘sticks’ rather than ‘carrots” – the that, since the Euromaidan, the density of the country’s current situation has become so eas; according to several observers, this will be carrot-and-stick-policy as a means to enforce weapons in the country and the intensity of explosive again.” an ambivalent process which presupposes the German and European interests in Ukraine. Sectoral reforms — a divided response

After all, there is nothing to lose as the trust “Ukrainian professors often do not speak any of the Ukrainian citizens in their institu- tions could not be any smaller – it amounts English; consequently, there are no active to a mere single-digit percent. It is only the anti-corruption court – which was, for a contributions to the international academic while, suspended – that enjoyed a 20-percent approval. “This speaks volumes, doesn’t it?” discourse. In Ukraine, the focus is on domestic says a journalist from Berlin. literature rather than on international literature.

If the country does not gain ground with its In Germany, it is impossible to become a professor fight against corruption, the people will be losing all their hopes and aspirations, says a represen- without speaking English.” (48) tative of the civil society in Berlin. “Sooner or later, people will say: ‘The Maidan and the war 66 67 have led to nothing; we want to return to the partners from the academic sector, one trated by “old apparatchiks.” International secure Russian world.’” After all, comprehensive can buy degrees and diplomas everywhere. networking is pretty bad, not least owing to reforms “are financed by the ordinary people, Moreover, the quality of academic educa- a poor knowledge of foreign languages; there while much money continues to trickle off in the tion in Ukraine is comparatively low – even are hardly any research projects with regard pockets of the local and regional elites.” though it has improved over the past ten to social sciences. years, says an academic from Hamburg. At Only a few voices differed from the circle of any rate, there are still obvious differences According to a young expert on Eastern the 44 interviewees. Thus, a politician assured between the metropolitan and the provin- Europe from Frankfurt/Oder, “the standard that “no other country – except for Romania – cial universities. The Shevchenko Univer- in the higher education system is so bad that has committed itself so drastically to the fight sity of Kyiv is regarded as an international there is an urgent pressure to act immedi- against corruption than Ukraine.” What is showpiece, but many other tertiary insti- ately.” And a young academic from Berlin upsetting, however, is the fact that “each pub- tutions still maintain a “post-Soviet men- adds: “The academic world is sitting in an licized case of corruption is credited to the ac- tality.” Only a few universities are able to ivory tower doing research for its own sake.” count of the reform sceptics.” And an industry carry out research which is internationally “But what is the meaning of research,” an representative from Munich thought that “from competitive. academic from Berlin asks rhetorically, “if it our experience, the issue of corruption is no does not lead to practical application?” longer an omnipresent phenomenon,” admit- These deficits can be explained by a chron- ting “that this may be explained by the size of ic underfunding of the Ukrainian higher The Ukrainian higher education system must our company.” According to him, however, the education system – also, because there is no be careful not to lose contact with interna- reform process is showing first visible results. connection between the academic world and tional standards. Even though, admittedly, the economic world. Consequently, academ- the current situation for Ukrainian academ- Quality Deficits and Bribability ic departments almost exclusively depend on ics is quite difficult, “it will be important not in Higher Education state-funding – currently a most unreliable to allow any compromises with regard to the resource. standards of research,” says a professor from Obviously, corruption and nepotism are an East German university. Otherwise, one wide-spread in the higher education system “It is the issue of corruption that will eventually What aggravates the situation further is the would simply support a system which is cor- too. According to many of our interview decide about the success or failure of the reforms.” fact that the university landscape is infil- rupt and unable to compete internationally. (612) Sectoral reforms — a divided response

The Lack of Recognition for Vocational Training

According to reports by our discussion An expert on the Ukrainian educational partners from the educational and academ- landscape believes that the separation of ic sector, education in Ukraine is recog- universities and polytechnics could possibly nized most of all in the academic context. bring about a solution. This would not only reduce the large number of universities in By contrast, vocational training only plays the country, but it would also promote the a subordinate role; its social recognition vocational, practice-oriented educational is rather poor — also, because there is no opportunities. Frequently, the universities craftsman tradition. The result is that even are unable to cope, “simply because they 68 Ukrainian production companies do not lack the prerequisites; there are not enough 69 recognize the added value of in-house vo- suitable laboratories, for example,” a young cational training programmes, says a young academic from Berlin knows from his own political adviser from Berlin. experience.

Ukrainian research and teaching are also talented academics from corrupt structures – undermined by a strict ban on any cooper- thus offering them medium- or long-term ation with Russian universities or research career prospects. To identify qualified un- institutions. This means that Ukraine’s higher dergraduates and graduates, German selec- education institutions are not only separated tion committees have repeatedly travelled from long-established academic networks, to Ukrainian higher education institutions but they cannot acquire any Russian-lan- believing that marks and grades do not repre- guage literature either. Whatever appears to sent adequate selection criteria – as “they are be Russophile, is removed from the curricula. frequently bought.” Even seminars on Marxism are currently “in- conceivable” – as if the historical materialism According to a discussion partner from Ham- was a Russian invention, an interview partner burg, the most important prerequisites for from Frankfurt/Oder is shaking his head in any improvements in the higher education disbelief. system are “good contacts abroad and a young teaching staff.” A lot can be achieved through Instead, he advocates the implementation of partnerships with (foreign) universities, enter- so-called “fast-track-programmes” to liberate prises and through town-twinning. Sectoral reforms — a divided response

Ukrainian Parties as Ukraine’s Future as a Litmus Test Alliances of Personal Interest for the European Idea

Political parties in Ukraine cannot be com- effect on government programmes and on For some of the discussion partners, the and liberties of the individual, but also the pared with those in Western Europe. They everyday parliamentary work. Nevertheless, success or failure of reforms in Ukraine connection with classical European values tend to be alliances of interest with an an NGO-representative hopes “that the is not only a test for the Ukrainian pop- (such as the human rights) have been undemanding political objective — grouped reform forces will unite and agree on a ulation and the country’s political elite, shifted by the Euromaidan into the centre around a close circle of strong leaders and presentable candidate [for the presidential but also for the sustainability of the of the political discourse,” a cultural ex- frequently supported by oligarchs. This also elections in spring 2019].” European Idea. Therefore, a successful pert from Berlin describes her impressions applies to political newcomers who — even reform policy would not only “be in the of the events of 2013/14. And she adds: if they advocate more transparency — only Different from many expectations in the interest of Ukraine, but even more so in we Europeans can learn from the Ukraini- display a rudimentary, rather authoritar- West, Viktor Yanukovych’s overthrow did the interest of the EU.” ans which values the EU is based on. 70 ian concept of democracy thanks to their not result in the foundation of a left-lib- 71 strong private interests. This, at any rate, eral political party. “Unfortunately, even Under most difficult circumstances, A man in his late forties shares this view: is — roughly speaking — the perception of the reform forces did not manage to quit Ukraine has made a decision in favour of “For Europe, Ukraine represents a chal- our discussion partners with regard to the the old system,” a journalist ponders on Europe and European values; now it is up lenge for everything we cherish. We do not Ukrainian political party system. the missed chances in the wake of thze to Europe to protect those values. “For me, seem to realize sufficiently what would upheaval. “After all, such a step would it was exciting to observe how the rights happen if we lost Ukraine as a partner.” “As yet, the political parties in Ukraine have made a big difference in the politi- cannot be regarded as genuine parties,” a cal discourse.” young academic from Berlin declares. “They are insubstantial alliances oriented towards So far, however, the young members of the personal interests of individual people.” parliament have not distinguished them- They do not have any firm party structures selves by an explicit willingness to coop- nor do they have any membership worth erate; they lack the experience of parlia- mentioning. mentary work and the necessary sense of According to a young Ukraine-expert from responsibility to place their own interests Berlin, this loose structure has a negative behind those of the community. Sectoral reforms — a divided response

Ukraine’s Backbone Is Her Strong Civil Society ger “revolutionary moments,” it cannot bring fatigue on the part of civil society.” The about “revolutionary movements.” To ensure expectations of the Maidan have remained Owing to the Euromaidan, the world has has undergone a basic change. “The mental any long-term changes, the reform movement unfulfilled; the people are disillusioned and discovered the strong Ukrainian civil society strength, the formation of an identity and lacks an integrative leadership, sustainable exhausted. Gradually, they are losing the which has been active until now — quite the social processes in the wake of the processes and established structures. strength and the faith to change the country aware of its power and role. Civil society Maidan have altered the country.” This is for the better. The Ukrainian society will ei- controls politics as a non-parliamentary essentially the merit of a liberal citizens’ In view of the old elites’ forces of per- ther sink into lethargy or it will soon face a corrective, thus promoting social change. society. sistence (or forces of inertia) and the de- third Maidan. This question will be resolved After two Maidan-revolutions, the Ukrainians layed reforms, there are signs of a “growing by civil society alone. now have their own clear idea how they Despite cultural differences, there is a broad want to live and in which direction they consensus among the reform-oriented forces 72 want to develop. with regard to the country’s future orienta- 73 tion: “All of them want to fight corruption Consequently, many observers, looking for and to establish local democracy. They are the essential characteristics of Ukrainian in favour of European integration and consti- society, do not focus so much on the of- tutionality. And, of course, they want an end ten-quoted issue of corruption, “but on the of the Russian aggression in the Donbas.” high degree of the civil society’s self-re- sponsibility.” On behalf of many discussion A young political analyst from Berlin is also partners, a young East German expert on fascinated by “the Ukrainian civil society’s Eastern Europe adds: “I have a great respect incredible capacity to mobilize people.” Like- for the Ukrainians. A country strong enough wise, another observer “was quite enthused to sustain two Maidans does not allow itself about the speed with which civil society’s to be patronized.” Admittedly, there is at network had been generated.” present a growing consolidation of oligarchic structures and the containment of rampant If, in the years 2014-2015, the citizens corruption has not been successful either. themselves had not assumed public duties “However, thanks to an extremely vital civil in the war zones, the supply of the pop- society, there is a strong will to become a ulation in Eastern Ukraine would have self-determined and democratic country. And collapsed, a young East German academic this will last.” Civil society has proved to asserts. “At this stage, the total weakness have “a long wind.” Moreover, it has devel- of the Ukrainian state became obvious” — oped “a distinct awareness that the country and, at the same time, the cumulative force must not fall back again into old patterns.” of the Ukrainian civil society.

Today, four years after the events on the However, civil society also has a blatant Kyiv Maidan, one looks at a country which weakness: even though it is capable to trig- > 4. Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

75 hat happens in Ukraine comes close “However, the most important people in Ber- “Wto a battle between the East and the lin have understood all this pretty fast.” West.” Among the interviewees, nobody has expressed it more pointedly than this Meanwhile, it has become clear to everybody journalist from Berlin. However, the signif- that the European security system also depends icance of these events only gradually seeps on the fate of Ukraine; both elements are in- through into Germans’ awareness. So far, the separably connected with each other. Again and relationship with Russia has superseded all again, the interviewees refer to the Budapest other issues, if only because of Germany’s Memorandum: in 1994, Ukraine renounced the economic interests. Against this background, possession of nuclear weapons, because the USA Ukraine has played a secondary role at best – and Russia, in return, pledged to respect her a world view which is now becoming rather sovereignty and territorial integrity. Therefore, shaky. the disregard of the Budapest Memorandum does not only represent a breach of interna- The annexation of Crimea has changed the tional law by Russia, but also by the Western world considerably – including the German guaranteeing powers: “With its reaction to the picture of the world and of Russia. “The an- breach of the Budapest Memorandum, the West nexation of Crimea has upset parts of the po- has made itself guilty. The West’s credibility has litical Germany,” a discussion partner describes been deeply shaken. Therefore, it is the West’s his perception. Another adds: “The faith in obligation to support Ukraine in her efforts to a collective understanding of the European restore her external security.” security architecture has been deeply shaken by this annexation.” Before that, “the world Some observers are surprised that this issue is appeared to be good and comfortable for Ger- not addressed more strongly in Ukraine. After many.” The fact that “Russia plans to establish all, “the country took an important step when it a new order, has not been grasped in Germany voluntarily renounced the possession of nuclear for a long time,” says an academic from Berlin. weapons.” Just now, with a possible NATO Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

“With its reaction to the breach of the Budapest Memorandum, the West has made itself guilty. The West’s credibility has been deeply shaken. Therefore, it is the West’s obligation to support Ukraine in her efforts to restore her external security.” (69)

76 77 membership no longer on the agenda, the ques- on the European continent. Admittedly, both However, there is widespread recognition of tion of security guarantees in the context of a the EU and Germany have already assumed Germany’s “key role” in supporting the efforts sustainable European security system is gaining far-reaching responsibility through negotiat- of the Ukrainian government to implement more and more importance. “Ever since the ing the Minsk Agreements; and, moreover, the economic and political reforms even if the military clashes in Eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s secu- German federal government “actively” supports German federal government has imposed rity needs have increased as NATO membership the reform process – but: “Does this solve the conditions insisting on strict observance of has become more and more unrealistic.” conflict, as long as Russia continues to play for agreements. “Germany is the most important time?” asks a discussion partner rhetorically. EU-country in all decision-making processes The controversy about a membership of with regard to Ukraine. Germany was ready Ukraine in the EU and in NATO has played Germany: Mediator or Double- when the crisis erupted and Germany has stood a prominent role in several interviews. In this Minded Opportunist? by Ukraine reliably ever since.” The discussion context, the opinion prevailed that the country’s partner ends with a rhetorical question: “Who division was not so much caused by Ukraine’s Despite – or even because of – the absence of else could do it?” Poland, admittedly, still plays rapprochement to the EU, but by the prospect any successes so far, many interviewees see Ger- an important role too; but in the past years, of a Ukrainian NATO membership. Whereas many in a bridging function between the East Ukraine has found Germany to be a signifi- a further rapprochement of Ukraine to the EU and the West. Against the background of her cant partner regarding foreign policy – over the may go unchallenged, any accession of Ukraine own past, Germany is considered particularly years, “a close friendship” has developed. to NATO is out of question. “For Ukraine, it sensitive to the East-West-relationship. “This would not be a good idea to join NATO, as this is definitely one reason for Germany’s present However, there are also critical voices to be would mean a formation of new power blocs. support of Ukraine,” a think-tank representative heard: admittedly, Germany has strongly Ukraine must remain neutral and attempt to from Berlin believes. However, this intermedi- committed herself to Ukraine (and within find a common language with Russia.” This is ary role is sometimes observed with suspicion Ukraine); what is lacking, however, is a public the only way to resolve the conflict step-by-step. in Ukraine. “Germany defines its foreign-policy debate on Germany’s long-term contributions role in terms of a central power, i.e. she tries to “Ever since the military clashes in Eastern Ukraine, to Ukraine’s stabilization. The support appears the question of a rapprochement with NATO has However, as NATO will not be Ukraine’s guar- maintain good relations with all sides in order to be too closely connected with the Minsk clearly changed. The security needs have increased antor for quite some time, the EU must “bare to gain influence. Sometimes, this attitude is as NATO membership has become more and more process. “This is not enough for a long-term its teeth” striving to become a security actor not properly appreciated in Ukraine.” unrealistic.” (591) cooperation with Ukraine.” Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

“During the public debate in Germany, it is frequently asked why on earth do we get involved in a conflict with Russia on account of Ukraine? Russia, after all, is Germany’s much more important partner. One should not strain this relationship too much with the problems in Ukraine.” (946)

78 79 Nevertheless, most of the interviewees agree on right to exist, claiming that “Ukraine used to may be contradictory – Berlin has remained Germany’s leadership and strength in view of be a part of the USSR, after all.” on track so far. This is also the hope of our this difficult constellation. The following remark discussion partners for the future: “Despite which is reflected in many statements is so suc- This attitude can also be observed with regard the economic interests, Berlin should take a cinct that it should not be omitted: “Just as well to the Crimea issue. Despite the violent annex- firm stand towards Russia. The Kremlin really that Angela Merkel happens to be Chancellor in ation of the peninsula, many Germans regard does not understand any other reaction. Keep this day and age, with her East German experi- this clear breach of international law as “unim- going! Don’t give up! And wait for better times ence; it doesn’t bear contemplating what would portant and irrelevant.” Instead, the focus re- to come.” By the way, it may be permitted to have happened if Schröder was still Chancellor.” mains on the long-term interests with Russia; ask what Germany could have done differently and Crimea, in the opinion of many Germans, in the past years: “Not much, really. There are Behind this allegedly personal insult, there is belongs to Russia anyway. The incorporation clearly defined limits of exercising influence a more profound fear: it is the latent worry of Crimea into Ukraine in 1954 is considered and of being influenced.” on the part of the Ukrainians to become a a deal which “Khrushchev made when he was pawn in the hands of the powerful, a pledge totally drunk. The fact that Ukraine has been Ukrainian and European Passivity in the conflicting interests of their powerful independent since 1991 und is still fighting neighbours. The fear: sooner or later, Germa- for her autonomy is completely neglected.” Some observers ask themselves why Kyiv behaves ny will sacrifice Ukraine’s independence in so passively towards Brussels and the big Europe- favour of German-Russian economic inter- The fact that the EU lacks a unanimous attitude an member states – especially Poland, Germany, ests. These, after all, are more important than with regard to sanctions against Russia does not France – the more so as those countries play an German-Ukrainian trade. “Germany’s interest make the West’s policy any more reliable or pre- essential role with regard to Russia and represent to cooperate with Putin seems more important dictable. Apparently, the West tacitly cherishes Ukraine’s most important allies. “The battle for than the containment of the conflict”, one of the hope that “Putin will eventually withdraw Ukraine will be decided here in Berlin and in the interviewees thinks. And he calls a spade his troops tacitly and we would thus enable him Brussels. Ukraine must show up here; she does a spade: “Within the economy and the great to save his face” – only to revive the past. “Despite the economic interests with regard to not make enough efforts to make her voice heard Russia, Berlin should take a firm stand. The lobby organizations, Ukraine is only regarded loud and clear in articulating her presence” – she Kremlin really does not understand any other as a disturbing factor in the relations with Rus- However, even though the rhetoric of the reaction. Keep going! Don’t give up! And wait for even justifies her passivity with a lack of money. sia.” Some lobby groups even deny Ukraine’s German population with regard to these issues better times to come.” (737) Some discussion partners also wish for a stronger Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

“For Europe, Ukraine represents a challenge for everything we cherish. Ukraine is a European project. We do not seem to realize sufficiently what would happen if we lost Ukraine as a partner.” (855)

81 role of Ukraine in the context of the Eastern ing to some interviewees, Germany should partnership of the European Union. become the pioneer of such initiatives in order “The question arises what Germany could have to open up Ukraine step-by-step and lead her On the other hand, some discussion part- closer to the EU. Such successes in the reform done differently in the past years? – Not much, ners take a look at Brussels and the European process would not only make Ukraine more Union. In their opinion, the EU – owing to its resistant against any external aggressions, but really. There are clearly defined limits of exercising association course – plays the most important also against any internal separation efforts. role in the current conflict and has to make influence and of being influenced.” (555) every conceivable effort to make Ukraine a One discussion partner points out that, in model of success. One must not forget that this principle, the issue implies much more than conflict is the result of considerable geopolitical the free movement of goods and people. If the upheavals in the region – especially the exten- EU should allow Ukraine’s freedom to be sacri- sion of the EU and of NATO towards Eastern ficed for the economic or geostrategic interests and Central Europe. Precisely because the EU of its big members, this would mean the end is a party to the conflict, some observers would of the EU. Literally: “For Europe, Ukraine is want “more support from the EU. Until now, a challenge for everything we cherish. Ukraine the EU has shown comparatively little support is a European project. We do not seem to re- for Ukraine. However, if ‘it clicks’ in Ukraine, alize sufficiently what would happen if we lost it will have a great effect on us.” Ukraine as a partner.”

Our very own interests alone should moti- On the other hand, an analyst from Berlin asks vate us “to intensify our efforts for Ukraine’s for more activity on the part of the Ukrainian European integration.” These efforts must government. Yes, he says, Ukraine needs a per- essentially include the “four freedoms” of the spective with regard to EU accession. “But she Single European Market: free movement of must now begin to develop her relations with goods, free movement of people as well as the the EU in as many areas as possible”, even if freedom of services and of settlement. Accord- her resources are rather limited at the moment. Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

“Russia will always forestall any reforms in Ukraine. If Ukraine were successful, the Russians will ask: ‘Why not us?’” (213)

82 83 A Special Relationship: The Independently from each other, several discus- about a solution – otherwise, the decision mak- Ukrainian-Russian Connexion sion partners put forward the same hypothe- ers in Kyiv would “forfeit Ukraine’s reputation.” sis: A Ukraine, successfully transformed and A sluggish reform policy would only play into What is considered essential for an un- modernized, would become a real danger for the Kremlin’s hands, for “it suits Russia to talk derstanding of the current crisis in the the continued existence of the authoritarian about Ukraine as a failed state.” At any rate, Ukrainian-Russian relations is the fact that regime in Russia. If the Ukrainian government Russia will do everything to make this picture “Ukraine has been playing a very significant were successful with its reform efforts, the come true: “Russia will continue to destabilize role in Russia’s power and security politics. Russians would ask themselves: “Why not us?” Ukraine systematically: politically, economical- Until now, Russia’s international political ly and in terms of the media. Russia does not significance has always depended on Ukraine.” From “the Kremlin’s point of view, Ukraine show any motivation to strike compromises at This close connection between Ukraine and is ‘Russia’s smaller brother’, ‘its own flesh and any particular point.” Whether one likes it or Russia’s vital security interests plays an essential blood’.” If Kyiv were successful in reforming the not: reality shows that Russia is back – “risen role in every attempt by the interviewees to country, the pressure on the authoritarian regime from prostration” – and that the Ukrainian state explain Moscow’s hard reaction to Ukraine’s in Moscow would become untenably strong. A is unable to offer any resistance. Under these orientation towards the West. Ukraine which develops politically, economical- circumstances, Ukraine will not be able to turn ly and socially would almost inevitably lead to her reform policy into a success story. “How on Like every other country, a political adviser Russia’s destabilization. Consequently, Russia has earth can this possibly be achieved?” from Berlin argues, Ukraine has “to pursue a to undermine all reform efforts in Kyiv. “With foreign policy which takes into account the the war in the East, Russia is in a strong position In view of this dilemma-situation, some of the interests of her neighbours. For Ukraine, this to quash Ukraine’s successes, to destabilize the discussion partners hope for a political thaw in means the obligation to consider Russia’s inter- country and to strengthen extremist forces in Russia: “What would help both Ukraine and ests.” The biggest mistake during the Maidan Ukraine.” The only thing Ukraine can do is to Europe as a whole would be an ‘Orange Rev- was to reduce the situation to an “either-or”. Af- seek dialogue with Russia and “to wait until olution’ in Russia.” Other discussion partners ter all, Viktor Yanukovych must be given credit things have been sorted out over there.” make similar statements: “The only solution for his efforts “to maintain a dialogue with both to the Ukrainian-Russian problem would be Putin and Barroso [president of the EU Com- “We can learn from the Ukrainians which values However, other discussion partners believe that a change in Russia herself.” And yet another: mission].” This was “the only sensible policy.” the EU is based on.” (325) only an accelerated reform course can bring “It is quite disillusioning to realize that only a Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

“If we continue to speak with Putin and his circles of power only and to disregard the forces of the opposition, we should not be surprised to note that our influence on Russian politics will continue to diminish.” (656)

84 85 political change in Russia would bring about a This situation may well serve as a model for the which, due to Moscow’s pressure, has joined the complete resolution of the present situation.” future – possibly suggesting a bridging function economic embargo against Ukraine. Ultimate- between the East and the West – hypothesis ly, Ukraine represents no more than a useful However, Kyiv does not only depend on a shared by “some circles” in Germany, says one pledge. “Depending on the global situation, “regime change” in Moscow; it could also interviewee. And he hastens to add: “However, Moscow can use this pledge in any direction.” take the reins in its own hands. “At the mo- those circles do not ask themselves sufficiently ment, Ukrainian politicians happen to be how this may sound for the Ukrainian politi- There are sceptics of a Russian-Ukrainian rather strained, because they find themselves cians. After all, you can just as well march over rapprochement who believe that Russia has in a mode of war. This status quo can only a bridge in military boots, can’t you?” ultimately manoeuvred herself into a deadlock be resolved by abandoning this mode trying by her policy towards Ukraine. For “the conflict to tak with others – including Russia.” For, No matter how the situation is viewed – it re- with Ukraine has shown Russia her limits. The looking at the problem in the cold light of day, mains clear that there can be no solution with- Kremlin may be able to exercise influence on both Moscow and Kyiv find themselves in a out Russia. “We will have to think about how post-Soviet countries which are not members of situation where none of them can win any- we can stabilize Ukraine’s unstable situation. NATO – however, this does not apply to mem- thing. “The war in the Donbas has reached a There is no way without Russia. Perhaps a sta- bers of NATO such as the Baltic States.” In the deadlock associated with a tragic momentum tus such as Moldova or Transnistria? In these end, the war in Ukraine could have consequenc- in Russian-Ukrainian relations. A situation two countries, tens of thousands of people es for Russia similar to those the war in Afghani- has developed revealing horrible dimensions.” hold a domestic passport, a Russian passport stan had for the Soviet Union in the past. Other observers also find it “regrettable that and they can enter the EU as well.” Whatever the relations with Russia are breaking down on the models of cooperation may eventually be: As long as Putin stays in power with Russia con- different levels – caused by the war.” “Ultimately, there will be some kind of deal.” sidering herself isolated internationally, it will at best be possible to establish a sustainable line of Irrespective of the current crisis, some observers “The conflict with Ukraine has shown Russia Other observers are more hesitant pointing out defence in Eastern Ukraine.” According to an ex- see Ukraine “in an ideal geopolitical situation: her limits. The Kremlin may be able to exercise the role of Russia as an aggressor. They maintain pert on Ukraine from Berlin, the objective must influence on post-Soviet countries which are not on the one hand, the country used to have that Russia, after all, uses “her territorial power be to reach a systematic exchange of prisoners members of NATO – however, this does certainly economic ties with Russia, on the other hand, not apply to members of NATO such as the Baltic to inflict damage on Ukraine” instrumental- and other persons. This would “render people’s it is now more closely connected with the EU.” States.” (594) izing other countries – such as Kazakhstan lives in the region much more bearable.” Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

“My vision for Kharkiv in 2030: Even more colourful, no corruption, an efficient bureaucracy, participating in Europe-wide networks, no national(istic) aspirations on the part of the young generation. Putin has become more pragmatic, more constructive, and he has developed an interest in genuine solutions. Reconciliation.” (786)

86 87 At any rate, there is a general consensus regard- cy towards Russia if the present deadlock is to ing long-standing criticism of Western policies be overcome. At the same time, it is consid- towards Russia: “If we continue to speak with ered naive to assume that things will turn for Putin and his circles of power only and to dis- the better after Putin. “It is not Putin who regard the forces of the opposition, we should represents Ukraine’s main problem – rather, it “Whenever, in Germany, some circles apply the not be surprised to note that our influence on is the renewed orientation of Russian foreign Russian politics will continue to diminish.” policy towards the traditional geopolitical metaphor of ‘bridging function’ to Ukraine, they do thinking. This, at any rate, will continue after “After all, we know everything about the caus- Putin.” Putin is only “a particularly strong not ask themselves sufficiently how this may sound es of the war in Eastern Ukraine,” a media pro- protagonist of this kind of thinking.” for the Ukrainian politicians. After all, you can just fessional from Berlin adds, visibly upset. “It is Russia which has carried the war into Ukraine. Ultimately, the whole debate shows that as well march over a bridge in military boots, can’t And it is Russia which is fighting the war there “our picture of Ukraine is still shaped by a too.” Thus, Moscow is not a mediator in the post-Soviet and post-colonial perspective. you?” (851) conflict in Eastern Ukraine (as suggested by One talks with Moscow about Ukraine, but the Minsk Agreements), but a war party. “Why one does not talk with Ukraine herself. Why is this issue not addressed?” – a man asks, on earth does the road to Kyiv always have bewildered. The only plausible reason could be to go via Moscow?” an academic expert on “to enable Moscow in a face-saving manner to Ukraine asks. withdraw its troops tacitly at one time or an- other.” Why, then, do we have to listen to the Karl Schlögel, a historian from Berlin, is nonsense from our German foreign minister said to have been one of the few observers who expects Russia to exercise restraint on the who, during the Maidan, had admitted that conflicting parties”? their view on Ukraine had been shaped by traditional stereotypes. If one is honest, then According to some observers, Europe and “Ukraine has been looked at through Mos- Germany should also examine their own poli- cow’s very own filter until the present day.” Ukraine as an Object and a Subject of International Relations

Social Exchange as a Key to Modernization

Some of the interviewees believe that an Vice versa, Ukrainian artists would find increased exchange between Germans and new inspiration in Nuremberg. Ukrainians would be “helpful” for the re- form efforts in Ukraine. Therefore, exchange A young man from Munich would like to programmes in different fields should sup- invest more sustainably in the exchange of port developmental and economic measures skilled professionals. In his opinion, it is which already exist. paramount “to increase economic synergies between the EU, Germany and Ukraine” — Apparently, a success story is municipal also by means of the ‘Hermes Cover’ [a 88 cooperation which has undergone big governmental export credit guarantee] 89 changes in the last years. “A change of and academic cooperation. Every year, paradigm” — in that more financial funds around 10,000 Ukrainian students come are available, the decision makers have to Germany, whereas only 100 Germans become accessible more directly and, study in Ukraine. It should be the aim of consequently, more joint programmes such exchange programmes “to create could be developed — also with the help more prosperity, more stability and more of dispatched experts — so that things perspectives.” could be “implemented more realistically” than before. An academic from Berlin wishes for more intense cooperation with his Ukrainian Another observer knows about the unifying colleagues; and he considers such a plan power of culture: “International exchange “well founded. Back in the 1990s, we used and the promotion of artists, writers, mu- to have an academic promotion programme sicians and journalists as well as the pro- with Russia — this could serve as a model.” motion of citizens’ travel activities create sustainable relations, understanding and After all, what has been a success story in a broad public”, says a man in his fifties. the German-French relations could well be “Culture unifies.” In Kharkiv, for example, tried with regard to the German-Ukrainian there is a ‘Nuremberg House’ — an associa- relations: “Perhaps one should contemplate tion based on a partnership where German a German-Ukrainian Youth Project,” a repre- culture and German language are imparted. sentative of private business says. 5. Pictures of and Perspectives on the Future

91 n the final sequence of the interviews, we uncertainty. However, despite widespread Iasked our discussion partners to formu- scepticism and occasional disillusionment late a vision for the future of Ukraine and to owing to delayed reforms, there is a prevailing express their expectations and hopes for the mood of optimism amongst the discussion country. This is to confront the current de- partners with regard to Ukraine’s develop- bate (which is fraught with problems) with ment opportunities. “When I look ahead,” a positive picture of the future. Naturally, says a political adviser from Berlin, “I believe our interview partners also expressed doubts; that Ukraine will continue her reform course consequently, the confrontation of different – even though she may sometimes have to perspectives has resulted in a multi-faceted muddle through.” It is important for the EU and nuanced picture of the future. to remain a point of reference. If so, recon- struction “will be implemented much faster To begin with: many observers find it diffi- and much more successfully.” “If not, the cult to identify any socially relevant issues process will be slowing down.” which are not related to war, corruption or reforms. “People tend to be tired of these A young man from Munich, who also works issues,” a young academic reports. What as a political adviser and analyst, says “that is needed is a number of positive stories, Ukraine has many chances for a good fu- “and what is also needed are new forms of ture.” If existing barriers are removed, e.g. narrative.” corruption and a lack of constitutionality, the country will have “great prospects to Success Factors for Sustainable develop”; in this case, even an econom- Change ic growth rate of 5 to 7% p.a. could be expected. In view of the many external and internal factors which will determine Ukraine’s future, However, one should not cherish too many many interviewees perceive a high degree of illusions: it will certainly take some time for Pictures of the future — perspectives of the future

92 93 people to feel the positive effects of the re- Economically, a Sleeping Giant Ukraine to create added value, says a young forms – after all, the reform process is tak- academic from Berlin. With regard to some ing place “under most difficult conditions.” In particular, the basic optimism of the in- individual economic sectors, the Ukrainian “In five years, social change in Ukraine will terviewees is backed up by Ukraine’s great economy has quickly exhausted the trading have advanced considerably.” At any rate, one economic potential. According to our discus- quota of the EU’s Association Agreement; should not apply double standards: even here sion partners, both the natural conditions and meanwhile, about 40% of Ukraine’s exports go in Germany, large reform projects require more the educational level of the population justify into the EU. than one legislative period to become effective. hopes for a prosperous future – provided that the necessary framework will be set up. An However, these exports are still restricted to raw Some interview partners regard interna- expert on Eastern Europe from Berlin thinks material – a restriction which brings about a tional pressure “a guarantor of continued that Ukraine could become a model for other certain kind of dependency, a young political reforms” – this also applies to the political post-Soviet countries if she succeeds “in estab- analyst from Berlin knows. If the Ukrainian class which, despite its own interests, largely lishing a progressive political system and in economy invests more into the processing of fulfils the demands of international credi- building a modern economy.” raw material, “it could export much more into tors. “At this point, the current political de- the EU.” At the moment, however, any further cision makers fundamentally differ from the To achieve this, however, further stabilization creation of added value is hampered by a lack previous governments of the past ten years.” of the country’s security situation is necessary of (foreign) investment. The reason for the along with more progress in setting up consti- absence of investment capital appears to be However, a young political adviser from tutionality, a young political adviser from Mu- obvious, many observers think: “Without any Berlin thinks that the Ukrainian government nich remarks: “The economic development is constitutionality, no foreign investment capital should “connect the association and reform extremely dependent on Ukraine’s stability. As will be forthcoming.” The Ukrainian economy processes more intelligently.” “In my view, soon as the security situation is under control, is not attractive enough for foreign investors, these two processes could ‘cross-fertilize’ along with the advent of constitutionality, there because it is non-transparent, insufficiently reg- each other much more effectively. After all, will be great prospects for Ukraine.” “The economic development is extremely dependent ulated and characterized by unfair competition. on Ukraine’s stability. As soon as the security the government bears a huge responsibility: situation is under control along with the advent it has to show that it seriously wants to im- It is the access to the EU market, in particular, of constitutionality, there will be great prospects “As long as Ukraine cannot guarantee the plement a political reform process.” which could open up new opportunities for for Ukraine.” (699) property rights of entrepreneurs and investors, Pictures of the future — perspectives of the future

reports. The people in Ukraine prefer to buy “If you look around in Ukraine, you will quickly Western goods. In Germany, too, the label notice how weakly structured the country is and “Made in Ukraine” is fairly unknown and must be better positioned, a discussion partner from how ramshackle most of the businesses are.” (866) Berlin’s NGO scene believes.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainian economy has great potential: e.g. with regard to IT services, tour- ism, building and energy efficiency or renew- able energies. “However, the oligarchs are not interested in improving it,” an academic expert on Ukraine believes. “For it would be the oli- garchs themselves who could lose everything through liberalization and social change; they 94 95 she will not be able to progress economically so old and ramshackle, that they are not in- could even be brought to justice.” Not even and develop her potential,” a political advis- ternationally competitive. Just like in former the strongest opposition has so far been able to er from Berlin remarks. Only when a “hori- Eastern Germany, large businesses have to be cope with this. zontal economic structure” is developed, the converted into small ones so that they can op- middle class will have better opportunities, erate more efficiently, an academic expert on Thus, the economy finds itself in an increas- an economic expert from Berlin believes. As Eastern Europe from Hamburg believes. ingly difficult situation again. In some areas, soon as this structure is achieved, “many issues one could talk about “chaotic conditions”, a of corruption” will disappear too. Owing to The structural weakness of the rural regions young economist from Berlin reports – add- these deficits, the Ukrainian capital markets is considered another obstacle on the way to ing: “We believe that this is due to a dwindling are presently dominated by speculators – “fast modernizing agricultural production – plus impact of reform forces.” in, fast out.” the lack of regulation, for instance, with re- gard to land acquisition. Admittedly, you can Young People – a Potential for It should be a strategy to count on cooperation lease land in Ukraine, but you cannot buy it Ukraine’s Future with medium-size enterprises – in agricul- easily. Which also means that any space which ture, in the IT and service sector. With small is agriculturally cultivated cannot be lent on The discussions have made it quite clear that and medium-size entrepreneurs, cooperation mortgage – a factor which would be condu- the young generation, most of all, cherishes a proves much easier than with complex struc- cive to the development of the agricultural vision of a “new Ukraine.” This generation is tures, an expert on Eastern Europe from Berlin sector, says an academic discussion partner. ready to invest its creativity and ability in their knows. Without any sensible regulation of the land country. Mostly born and socialized after the law, Ukrainian agriculture will hardly be able collapse of the Soviet Union, these reformers The Ukrainian agricultural sector, for in- to develop, another interview partner in his do not belong to the post-Soviet cohorts any stance, is “highly interesting” and promising, sixties adds. “Ukraine has great potential; only think of more. Therefore, many discussion partners says a representative from private business. tourism. However, the oligarchs are not interested regard the young generation as a particular po- Whoever invests in this sector without making As far as the consumer goods market is con- in improving it. For it would be the oligarchs tential for the country’s social change. themselves who could lose everything through a profit, “only has to blame himself.” Ukraine cerned, the Ukrainian economy still has a long liberalization and social change; they could even be has a strong, export-oriented agricultural way to go. Ukrainian products do not have a brought to justice. Not even the strongest opposition “The young Ukrainians’ enthusiasm for sector. However, the businesses are frequently good reputation, a young analyst from Munich has so far been able to cope with this.” (538) Europe, for democracy, for art and culture is Pictures of the future — perspectives of the future

96 overwhelming,” a middle-aged academic knows from his own experience. “We should count “The young people in Ukraine are well qualified, on this human capital,” he says. An expert on Eastern Europe from Hamburg also strikes an interculturally competent and they speak foreign optimistic note. There are many people who want to bring about change. languages. I perceive a genuine change of mentality. The young generation is open-minded and honest; However, the biggest obstacles for quicker progress are the old post-Soviet apparatchiks they strive for access to new knowledge and take who still dominate the administration. “If no professional people are available,” he says care of the environment.” (787) laconically, “you just have to carry on with the old ones.” Other discussion partners have had better experiences. “In our daily cooper- ation with the administration, we had to deal with highly qualified and very able people,” said a young political adviser from Berlin. “We have encountered very young and dy- namic persons.” All in all, there is a divided impression which indicates that changes are visible in some places while there is deadlock in others.

Despite their divided experience, young people “The Ukrainian people are the country’s greatest potential. In Ukraine, there is an unbelievable do not say any longer: “’Let’s quit!’ They prefer number of well-educated, highly qualified people to stay wanting to have an active share in cre- in different fields who have a wide range of ating a new society,” a politician from Berlin abilities, who are fully motivated and who are realigning themselves.” (348) Pictures of the future — perspectives of the future

98 99 believes. “In their view, Kyiv is the very place Staying or Leaving? administration staff faces many opportunities to be” – this constitutes a difference between to make a career – “especially with interna- the current situation and the sclerotic end of As a matter of fact, the exodus of well-quali- tional organizations.” “The growing lack of the Yanukovych-era. A perception which is not fied people (“brain-drain”) represents one of personnel within the administration is becom- unanimously shared – as illustrated by the en- the greatest dangers for the country’s reform ing a real problem for the implementation of quiry about migration (see section below). and modernization efforts. It resembles a vi- the reforms”, a young expert on Ukraine from cious circle: the more the reform process loses Berlin reports. What is regarded as an essential neglect on its momentum, the more the well-qualified the part of the reformers is their failure to people prefer to seek their fortune abroad. This is why some of our discussion partners transform a revolutionary movement into This brain-drain deprives the reform move- regard the recent EU’s visa-liberalization as a political one which would be capable of ment of important know-how and political a “Greek gift.” For it is exactly these visa-fa- carrying out successful parliamentary work. energy; consequently, the innovation process cilitations which will increase the exodus The young people will have to professionalize gradually loses momentum. of young people – “similar to what we themselves and to “re-invent politics.” This witnessed in the new federal states [Bunde- will be their “only short-term opportunity” to “Migration is a big problem,” a representative sländer] after the German reunification,” a make the reconstruction of Ukrainian society of the economy knows. Each year, half a mil- media professional from Berlin believes. a success. lion well-qualified people leave the country.” These people are tired of their own country On the other hand, contrary to many expec- On behalf of many discussion partners, an – tired of corruption, low wages and a lack of tations, one does not perceive any wave of artist from Berlin articulates her hope for constitutionality – a problem which is steadi- return on the part of the . the country: “I would like to see the devel- ly increasing, a young academic reports. “I Whoever has “managed to grab” a German opment of new perspectives for Ukrainians happen to know a number of good Ukrainian passport, stays in Germany. “To silence one’s in their own country with people assuming academics, but none of them wants to stay in conscience, money is sent to war widows,” a more self-responsibility,” says the woman Ukraine for good.” journalist adds with a touch of cynicism. “Admittedly, it is fantastic for the Ukrainians in her mid-fifties. Most of all, however, she to have the freedom to travel. However, it is hopes that the people want to stay in their This tendency to migrate also makes itself felt important to watch out that qualified people do According to a middle-aged academic from own country. in the administration, because well qualified not leave the country for good.” (511) Berlin, the brain drain can only be contained Pictures of the future — perspectives of the future

Internal Migration and by a double strategy in the long run: on drain, others report a “homecomer-phenom- the one hand, massive investment must be enon.” In the past years, many Ukrainians Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) made into the education system in order to worked in the West and, having saved some provide the necessary expertise for Ukraine’s money, “would like to return to Ukraine in renewal and modernization; on the other order to open up small hotels or restaurants,” As a result of the war in the Donbas, there he thinks. And a middle-aged journalist hand, Ukraine has to change fast enough an expert on Eastern Europe from Berlin are around 1.5 million internally displaced adds: “Western Europe hardly realizes the to guarantee job opportunities for those reports. And an associate of a Berlin think- persons (internal expellees) — an issue additional burden which Ukraine, apart from well-qualified people which would meet their tank adds: “What I find surprising is that which, in the perception of some interview- the war and the economic crisis, has to expectations. well-qualified Ukrainians who have studied ees, “tends to be neglected” in Germany. bear due to the large number of internally in America or Western Europe wish to return displaced persons.” She is “quite impressed Even though the majority of our discussion to Ukraine, although they would enjoy better After all, internal migration represents “an how Ukraine is handling this challenge.” partners seem to perceive an ongoing brain opportunities abroad.” enormous challenge for both the state and And a young political adviser from Berlin the population” — families would be torn points out that “despite such large numbers 100 apart and people would have to be integrat- there have been no social problems. You 101 ed into a new environment. Some observers really have to say,” says the young man, even talk of a “population exchange.” visibly impressed, “that the Ukrainians are as thick as thieves in this situation.” Precisely because the issue of internally displaced persons is an additional politi- In the opinion of an almost thirty-year old cal, social and financial challenge for the interviewee, internal migration and labour country, it must be highlighted more clearly migration represent issues which connect in the external communication, an academic Ukraine with other European countries. He from Berlin believes. believes that the issue of migration could serve as a starting point “to talk about In Kharkiv alone, the second-largest similar challenges, but different experi- Ukrainian city with around 1.5 million ences and attitudes.” For, if Ukraine should inhabitants, ca. 200,000 internally displaced not develop into the desired direction, a persons from the war zones have been completely different scenario would be received. According to a political analyst, conceivable — already today, this is per- Kharkiv has thus made “an unprecedented ceived in Germany as a worst-case-scenar- integration effort” — with small resources io: according to such a scenario, internal and “without any lamenting. Here in Germa- migrants would become refugees migrating ny, we could learn a lot from this attitude,” to Western Europe. About the Methodology of this Study The selection of the interview partners followed the usual principles of qualitative he study “Ukraine Through Germany research for the selective case sampling (the- TEyes” represents an explorative research oretical sampling). The setup of discussion Appendices project with a quantitative-empirical ap- partners was based on the GIZ’s broad net- proach, i.e. the study does not proceed from work in Germany and in Ukraine. Particular existing hypotheses or theories, but search- attention was paid to the fact that there was es openly for any findable phenomena and no direct dependency between the discus- patterns. The search itself takes place within a sion partners and the GIZ. corpus of statements which have been collect- ed previously through personal interviews. To meet the standards of the study’s objec- tive, expert knowledge of Ukraine was the This approach, then, basically differs from decisive selection criterion. Apart from the traditional opinion polls which are often participants’ observation skills und power of 103 quantitatively oriented. There, most of all, speech, further criteria included relevance, the distribution of characteristics (here: opin- substance and diversity: relevance refers to ions) within a relevant group of interviewees an occupation with those topics that dom- (population) is to be determined. This rarely inate social discourse at the moment and happens by a full survey where all the mem- which bear a particular meaning for as many bers of a basic population are interviewed, target groups as possible; substance refers to but typically by random sampling which is a sufficiently deep and appraising consid- organized according to certain principles (e.g. eration of the questions; diversity refers to randomization) to ensure statistical represen- a satisfactory range of topics in order to be tativity. For only then it is possible to draw able to offer a comprehensive overall picture reliable conclusions from a small random as far as possible. sampling to the basic population (which is mostly much bigger). With regard to the selection of discussion partners, additional selection criteria were With regard to our chosen approach, however, used, such as sex, age and the social occupa- such statistical conclusions can only be applied tion of the interviewees. Likewise, attention to a limited extent. On the contrary: this is was paid to the criterion that, ideally, the se- one of the limitations of the chosen research lection should muster decision makers from approach. Instead, the here chosen approach the middle and higher (but deliberately not aims to select discussion partners who are suit- from the highest) hierarchical levels. Thus, able for the overall objective, paying attention 44 discussion partners could be identified. to their specific ability to focus on a particular The final setup of the interviewee samples object of observation to be used for the collec- took care to ensure a good distribution of tion of empirical findings. In our case, the ob- the selection criteria mentioned above. The ject of observation is Ukraine, and, therefore, ultimate distribution according to social the suitable discussion partners are experts on criteria can be read from the following Ukraine living in Germany. graphics: About the methodology of this study

Interviewees according to areas of society (n=44) the other hand, the interviewees could answer intention – despite the inevitable shortcom- questions which invited them to call up their ing of partial overlapping – to present clear Civil society 3 profound knowledge. and distinct categories and to use a terminol- Science 16 ogy equally valid for German and Ukrainian Economy 7 Importance was also placed on the flow of the contexts. Finally, topical cross-sectional topics Politics 12 Media 5 interview which is oriented by the interview- were presented for the enquiry (e.g. corrup- Arts and Culture 1 ee’s natural narrative, carefully supported by tion, war, Crimea), because they appear to be 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 the interviewers without interfering with the particularly relevant to Ukraine’s external per- direction of the narrative or even contributing ception on account of the current socio-polit- Interviewees according to sex (n=44) any pictures of their own. ical development.

Male 16 Female 28 In the foreground of this approach, there is the As expected, the chosen topics have collect- element of comprehension and understand- ed a large number of different statements. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 ing of the interviewees’ individual perspec- Although certain conclusions can be drawn 104 105 Interviewees according to age groups (n=44) tives revealing the pictures of Ukraine in the from them, any interpretation should be background. In order to establish the theoreti- attempted with great caution owing to the 60 and over 8 cal disposition and uniformity in the practical pseudo-statistical character of this qualitative 51-60 41-50 6 implementation necessary for this approach, all survey. At any rate, it may suffice to mention 31-40 18 the interviewers were trained accordingly prior the conspicuous clustering in the areas of under 30 11 to the survey, the same set of interview material “Political Order” and “International Rela- 1 (master sheet, theme maps etc.) was used by ev- tions” which can be regarded as an indication 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 eryone, and the same procedure was adhered to. of a changed perception of Ukraine since the Euromaidan, the Russian annexation of Each individual interview started with an open Crimea and the war in the Donbas. As the The interviewees came from different social Overall, a satisfactory case contrasting was stage leaving room for free associations and given study design does not focus primarily areas: e.g. from politics, the economy, science, reached and, thus, the largest possible diversity pictures about Ukraine. In the second stage, on the clustering, but on the substantial qual- culture and civil society – the last two groups of perspectives on Ukraine was ensured. the interviewees were given the chance to ity of the statements, we have dispensed with being slightly under-represented. 28 (64%) choose unrestrictedly from a range of fourteen a description of the frequency distribution of discussions were conducted with male partners The Collection of Data in Personal topics (plus an option called “miscellaneous”). the statements. and 16 (36%) discussions with female part- Interviews These fourteen topics in the core section of ners. As regards the age groups, an appropri- the interview were chosen in such a way that There were no literal transcriptions subse- ate distribution was reached, even though the To collect the perceptions of the selected all the essential functional areas of the society quent to the discussions. Instead, all team age-bracket “under 30” is under-represented. persons, personal interviews were conducted, as well as all relevant cross-sectional material members were asked to document the core The fact that 41 discussion partners (93% of each of them lasting around 90 minutes. In (e.g. migration) would be represented. In the statements which had already been substan- the interviewees) had an expert (or near-ex- the interviews, a semi-structured method was closing stage (which was kept open again), the tially condensed. The documentation took pert) knowledge of Ukraine, corresponds with used. Apart from a certain number of guiding interviewees were asked to draw a substantial place on a pre-structured evaluation sheet the study’s intention. However, at the planning questions in the opening and closing stages of conclusion and to talk about their future ex- which provided a direct allocation to one of stage, too, we ensured a wider range of dis- the discussions, the participants were offered a pectations and recommendations. the fourteen topics (see table) as well as a tribution in that persons were asked for their pool of topics they could choose from. On the coordination according to the types of state- assessment whose connection with Ukraine one hand, this method made sure that topics The topics (and their short titles) which were ment (e.g. description, strength, weakness, was less intense or indirect (3 persons, 7%). from everyday life could be chosen, while, on offered to the participants were guided by the recommendation etc.). About the methodology of this study

Statements according to fields of observation (n=1014) 1. Determining and examining the source The focus remained on the identification material (corpus) of the most conspicuous and most interest- Miscellaneous (Wildcard) 104 Science 30 2. Determining the direction and the process ing phenomena with regard to the picture of Economy 73 of the analysis Ukraine. Thus, the aim was not to develop Environment 16 the description of a single phenomenon (the Technology 3 3. Structuring and generalizing the data Security picture of Ukraine), but – initially free of any 46 4. Formulating the relevant hypotheses Religion 23 prescribed search criteria and thought struc- Political Order 270 5. Interpreting and reviewing the results tures – to search for statements which could be Migration 28 joined with other statements because of their Media 75 Culture 106 The 1014 core statements from the interviews substantial affinity. International Relations 191 constituted the basic reference material made Health 13 available to the evaluation team (i.e. all interview- At any rate, it is important to distinguish Family 12 Education 24 ers for reasons of reference to the development between the different types of statements – 106 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 context) in the form of index cards and lists. whether they were a mere description, an assess- 107 ment or even a recommendation. According to Direction and process of the analysis were ori- such categories, the total distribution of core ented by the qualitative objective of the study. statements reads as follows:

Statements according to type of statement (n=1014) Evaluation of Collected Data GIZ studies on Germany1 – have repeatedly shown that an increase of data hardly results in Miscellaneous 5 Recommendation or suggestion 165 Looking at the most important parameters new insights. Negative for Germany 13 of the survey provides a good starting point Positive for Germany 7 to the description of the evaluation process. In this explorative study which was not theo- A risk for Ukraine 116 A chance for Ukraine 101 Between September and November 2017, ry-driven, the main task of the data evaluation Ukraine’s weakness 107 altogether 44 interviews took place in Germa- was (a) to examine statements from different Ukraine’s strength 67 ny. Given a total number of 1014 collected perspectives and from different social sectors Description or assessment 433 core statements, there is an average number of with a focus on the given phenomena-de- 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 around 23 core statements per interview. scriptions, (b) to join any statements with a reference to the same phenomenon, and (c) to Thanks to a good case contrasting and a suffi- relate the described facets in the best possible cient number of interviewees, this assessment way in order to compose an overall picture. In In the central step of analysis, the resulting (sample-to-population), but we generalized represents a reasonable data saturation level. simplified terms, the basic sequence of steps patterns were accumulated further, until the analytically. With regard to analytical general- Studies of a similar kind – such as the three had the following structure: relevant data material had exhausted itself at ization, specific phenomena (made visible from a relevant point. In turn, the ensuing state- individual cases) are used to work out concepts – 1 Cf.: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (ed.), Deutschland in den Augen der Welt. Zentrale Ergebnisse der ment-clusters were subsequently assembled by means of inductive inference, abstraction and GIZ-Erhebung „Außensicht Deutschland – Rückschlüsse für die Internationale Zusammenarbeit“,­ Bonn/Eschborn 2012 (Download: https://www.giz.de/de/downloads/de-deutschland-in-den-augen-der-welt-2012.pdf); Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale into a total picture. Hereby, we did not gen- confirmatory evidence – which are believed to Zusammenarbeit (ed.), Deutschland in den Augen der Welt. Zentrale Ergebnisse der zweiten GIZ-Erhebung 2015, Bonn/Eschborn 2015 eralize statistically, i.e. we did not draw any have a broader significance. To a certain extent, (Download: https://www.giz.de/de/downloads/giz2015-de-deutschland-in-den-augen-der-welt_2015.pdf). The third GIZ study on Germany will appear in the first quarter of 2018. basic conclusions from the random sample case-to-case transferability has also played a role. About the methodology of this study

Case-to-case transferability is a form of general- reflective process is terminated at one’s conve- Discussion partners ization where – by means of a similarity between nience and not as a result of theoretical satura- personal characteristics (e.g. young cultural tion. What should also be excluded as much as Behrends, Jan C., Dr. Hilkes, Peter Zentrum für Zeithistorische Forschung Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich professionals) or other contextual factors (e.g. possible is the frequent disposition to develop Potsdam e.V. space, time, environment etc.) – inferences can enthusiasm (based on personal bias) for artifi- Hoffmann, Martin, Dr. be drawn from an individual case about another cially constructed relationships or contexts. Af- Beichelt, Timm, Prof. Dr. Ostausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft e.V. case or a group. Given this kind of structure, the ter all, even comprehensive qualitative studies European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) data material represents the starting point for do not yield sufficiently differentiated context Jilge, Wilfried Bercio, Anne Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. further processing. information to allow for case transferability. Institut für Europäische Politik e.V. Kapler, Clemens The formulation of hypotheses constituted the Therefore, the interpretation and the examina- Bindert, Franz-Josef Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche fourth, result-oriented step of the evaluation. tion of the results were carried out on several Ministerialdirigent a.D. Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) Here, the pre-structured material was exam- levels: On the one hand, the obtained results Bollow, Ivonne Julitta Kaufmann, Walter ined in-depth and hypothesis-like summa- were subjected to a critical substantial appraisal 108 Metro AG Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung 109 ries in the form of short texts were compiled already during the preparatory and evaluation which, ultimately, were made available for workshops. On the other hand, the compi- Bota, Alice Kirchner, Robert further editorial elaboration. lation of the study report repeatedly resorted Journalist Berlin Economics to the raw material in order to examine any Eichwede, Wolfgang, Prof. em. Dr. Kochlowski-Kadjaia, Ute It should be pointed out at this stage that gen- formulated assumptions and to specify them Historian Osteuropaverein der deutschen Wirtschaft e.V. eralization and the formation of hypotheses in further if necessary. the context of qualitative studies have to bear Fischer, Sabine, Dr. phil. Koller, Peter and answer two essential questions: Are the Finally, when drawing up the text of the study, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) Osteuropa-Plattform der Grünen assumptions sufficiently founded by the data it was carefully noted that the conclusions and material? Would a repetition of the analysis or hypotheses offered in this study were not rep- Freitag, Gabriele, Dr. Kosmehl, Miriam Deutsche Gesellschaft Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung a repetition with other analysts obtain the same resented as objective truths, but as incentives für Osteuropakunde e.V. results? What is meant here is the risk of pre- or food for thought to stimulate the reader’s Libman, Alexander, Prof. Dr. mature and unverified conclusions (to stop at own interpretations and inferences. This study Gilgen, Christoph Konrad University of Munich the “aha-moment”) which can occur when the report is the result of our endeavour. Deutsche Assoziation der Ukrainisten e.V. Lindenlaub, Yvonne Golczewski, Frank, Prof. Dr. Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau Historian und Reaktorsicherheit (BMUB)

Halling, Steffen Mark, Rudolf A., Prof. Dr. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg

Harms, Rebecca Meister, Stefan, Dr. Member of the European Parliament Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V.

Heldt, Alexandra Milbradt, Georg, Prof. Dr. Tönissteiner Kreis e.V. Prime Minister (retd.)

Henkel, Stefan Münchmeyer, Tobias European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) Greenpeace e.V. About the methodology of this study

Novak, Andrej F. Sasse, Gwendolyn, Prof. Dr. European Cosmopolitan Consulting Zentrum für Osteuropa- und internationale Studien

Otten, Thomas Schiffer, Stefanie Otten Consulting GmbH Europäischer Austausch GmbH

Pleines, Heiko, Prof. Dr. Schimanke, Dieter, Prof. Dr. University of Bremen Adviser

Pörzgen, Gemma Schürgers, Norbert, Dr. Journalist City of Nuremberg

Praschl, Gerald Weidemann, Joachim Journalist Comecon.Media GmbH

Raabe, Katharina Wöll, Alexander, Prof. Dr. 110 Suhrkamp Publishing House European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder)

Rodé, Mascha Worschech, Susann, Dr. Journalist European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder)