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Germany's Dependence Debate: a Systematic Analysis of the Impact Of Germany’s dependence debate: A systematic analysis of the impact of Russian natural gas import dependence by Christina Marilla Stoelzel Chadwick B.A., Franklin College Switzerland, 2002 M.A., The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2005 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Political Science College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2021 Abstract This dissertation analyzes the impact of increasing natural gas import dependence on the foreign policy behavior of Western European countries, and specifically Germany, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. I argue that the influence of an “energy weapon” should be assessed in the context of the conditions for its effective application. The question is, in other words, whether a higher level of import dependence in energy leads to the alignment of the foreign policy of the dependent state with the energy supplying state. I propose that a greater Russian natural gas import dependence leads to a greater degree of foreign policy alignment or Affinity of the energy import dependent state with the exporting state. The quantitative analysis examines the impact of natural gas dependence on the foreign policy alignment of nineteen natural gas importers from 1995 to 2013 and, more specifically, Germany, with the Soviet Union and, subsequently, the Russian Federation from 1979 to 2012. The data from the time-series cross-sectional analysis and the time-series analysis of Germany corroborates that a higher level of Russian natural gas import dependence leads to a greater foreign policy alignment of the import dependent state with the Russian Federation. The qualitative analysis uses four case studies to examine the position of German chancellors toward the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation as well as Russian natural gas imports and how it changed as imports increased. The case studies include the NATO pipeline embargo of November 1962, the first natural gas agreement, the construction of the Urengoy-Uzghorod pipeline in the early 1980s and U.S. sanctions against it, and the agreement to build Nord Stream in 2005. I conclude that the “energy weapon” has a systemic impact on the foreign policy of the import dependent state by inducing foreign policy alignment and deterring foreign policy decisions that might alienate the Russian Federation. The “energy weapon” not only affects the foreign policy of states directly affected by a supply disruption or threat thereof but has an impact on the foreign policy position of natural gas import dependent states toward the Russian Federation in general. Germany’s dependence debate: A systematic analysis of the impact of Russian natural gas import dependence by Christina Marilla Stoelzel Chadwick B.A., Franklin College Switzerland, 2002 M.A., The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 2005 A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Political Science College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2021 Approved by: Major Professor Andrew G. Long Copyright © Christina Marilla Stoelzel Chadwick 2021. Abstract This dissertation analyzes the impact of increasing natural gas import dependence on the foreign policy behavior of Western European countries, and specifically Germany, utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. I argue that the influence of an “energy weapon” should be assessed in the context of the conditions for its effective application. The question is, in other words, whether a higher level of import dependence in energy leads to the alignment of the foreign policy of the dependent state with the energy supplying state. I propose that a greater Russian natural gas import dependence leads to a greater degree of foreign policy alignment or Affinity of the energy import dependent state with the exporting state. The quantitative analysis examines the impact of natural gas dependence on the foreign policy alignment of nineteen natural gas importers from 1995 to 2013 and, more specifically, Germany, with the Soviet Union and, subsequently, the Russian Federation from 1979 to 2012. The data from the time-series cross-sectional analysis and the time-series analysis of Germany corroborates that a higher level of Russian natural gas import dependence leads to a greater foreign policy alignment of the import dependent state with the Russian Federation. The qualitative analysis uses four case studies to examine the position of German chancellors toward the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation as well as Russian natural gas imports and how it changed as imports increased. The case studies include the NATO pipeline embargo of November 1962, the first natural gas agreement, the construction of the Urengoy-Uzghorod pipeline in the early 1980s and U.S. sanctions against it, and the agreement to build Nord Stream in 2005. I conclude that the “energy weapon” has a systemic impact on the foreign policy of the import dependent state by inducing foreign policy alignment and deterring foreign policy decisions that might alienate the Russian Federation. The “energy weapon” not only affects the foreign policy of states directly affected by a supply disruption or threat thereof but has an impact on the foreign policy position of natural gas import dependent states toward the Russian Federation in general. Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... xii List of Maps ................................................................................................................................. xiii List of Pictures ............................................................................................................................. xiv List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ xv List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... xvi List of Measurements ................................................................................................................. xviii Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... xix Dedication .................................................................................................................................... xxi Preface......................................................................................................................................... xxii Chapter 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2 - The Advent of Oil and the Emergence of Western European Energy Import Dependence .............................................................................................................................. 6 From Coal to Oil ......................................................................................................................... 6 Oil as a Foreign Policy Tool ..................................................................................................... 11 The Early Use of Oil as a Foreign Policy Tool: the 1930s and 1940s .................................. 14 The Italian Invasion of Ethiopia 1935. ............................................................................. 14 The 1941 United States Oil Embargo against Japan. ........................................................ 15 The Emergence of Middle Eastern Oil in the 1950s ............................................................. 16 The Nationalization of the Iranian Oil Industry 1951. ...................................................... 17 The Suez Canal Crisis 1956. ............................................................................................. 17 The Arab Oil Embargoes of 1967 and 1973/4 ...................................................................... 18 The Six Day War. ............................................................................................................. 18 The Yom Kippur War. ...................................................................................................... 19 Russian Oil and the Supply Disruptions of the 2000s .......................................................... 22 The Druzhba Pipeline. ...................................................................................................... 26 The Baltic Pipeline System. .............................................................................................. 26 Latvia. ............................................................................................................................... 27 Belarus. ............................................................................................................................. 27 Czech Republic. ................................................................................................................ 28 viii Estonia............................................................................................................................... 29 Lithuania. .......................................................................................................................... 29 Chapter 3 - Soviet
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