CURRENT STATUS AND REQUIREMENTS FOR CLIMATE OBSERVATION IN

Nurhayati *, Nelly Florida*, Wahyu Pandoe** *)Center for Climate, Agro and Marine Climate, BMKG **)Agency for The Assesment and Application of Technology (BPPT) In TPOS 2020, 27-30 January 2014, San Diego US

Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics OUTLINES

1.NATIONAL POTENCY 2.SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION 3.REQUIREMENT FOR OPERATIONAL OCEAN OBSERVATION 4.CONCLUSION Courtesy: Manabu Yamanaka Indonesia as Maritime :

A miniature of the with coexistence of land and controlling global climate. Land -sea heat capacity contrast producing diurnal/annual cycles.

Indian Ocean Maritime Continent

Latent heating Solar Latent heating heating

Warm Water Warm Water Air-Sea Interaction Air-Sea Interaction (IOD) Air-Land-Sea Interaction (ENSO) Main Driving ForceS of Indonesian Rainfall

5 El Nino IOD SST 2 1 3 MJO 4 La Nina

1 El Nino, La Nina 3 IOD 5 Monsoon - New Indicator(s)? 2 Indonesia’s SST 4 MJO - We have not taken into account the ocean sub surface information ENSO PREDICTION (UPDATED 27 DECEMBER 2010 ) BMKG LaLa Nina Nina Prediction: Prediction: 3 ModerateModerate – – strong strong 2.5 El Nino - Strong 1. NCEP/NOAA (USA) 2 Air mass flow from 1. NCEP/NOAA (USA) Indonesia ‰ Samudera ° Dec10 ‰‰‰ La Nina Moderate 1.5 ° Dec10 ‰‰‰ La Nina Moderate El Nino- Moderate Pasifik ° Jan-May11 ‰‰‰ Strong La Nina 1 ° Jan-May11 ‰‰‰ Strong La Nina 0.5 El Nino-Weak 0 NORMAL 2.2. JamstecJamstec (Japan) (Japan) -0.5 °° Dec10-Feb11Dec10-Feb11‰‰‰‰‰‰LaLa Nina Nina strong strong La Nina - Weak -1 °° Mar-May11Mar-May11 ‰‰‰‰‰‰LaLa Nina Nina Moderate Moderate -1.5 La Nina - Moderate Air mass flow from -2 Samudera Pasifik ‰ 3. BoM () Indeks Nino Indeks 3. BoM (Australia) -2.5 La Nina -Strong Indonesia °° Dec10-Mar11Dec10-Mar11‰‰‰‰‰‰LaLa Nina Nina Moderate Moderate -3 °° Apr-May11Apr-May11 ‰‰‰ ‰‰‰LaLa Nina Nina weak weak -3.5 J a n 2 0 0 9 M a r May Ju l y Sep Nov J a n 2 0 1 0 M a r M e i Jul Sep Nov J a n 2 0 1 1 Mar May 4.4. BMKG BMKG (Indonesia) (Indonesia) °° Dec10-Mar11Dec10-Mar11 ‰‰‰‰‰‰LaLa Nina Nina Moderate Moderate

Current NCEP/NOAA Jamstec BoM BM KG

Institusi Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11

NCEP/NOAA -1.55 -2.05 -2.5 -2.9 -2.7 -2.3

Jamstec -2.15 -2.05 -2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.45

BoM -1.65 -1.3 -1.15 -1 -0.75 -0.55

BMKG -1.88 -1.80 -1.80 -1.72 -1.50 -1.29 National Research Vessels Planned for the Tropical Pacific Ocean Current and Plan of National Observations in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

Moorings: InaTRITON #2 • Position: 1N, 138E • Parameters: standard TRITON buoy such as SST, salinity and temperature profiles, surface meteorology, current, etc • Expected deployment time: June 2014 Opportunities for TPOS-2020 Resource-Sharing Partnerships • Bilateral Collaboration: V Indonesia (BMKG, BPPT, KKP) – USA (NOAA) V Indonesia (BPPT) – Japan (JAMSTEC) V Indonesia (KKP, IPB) – France (INDESO Program) V Others

• Multilateral Collaboration: proposed joint consortium research Tropical Pacific Gateway into ITF (lead by Prof. Arnold Gordon, under intense discussions) focusing in Halmahera Sea and western Pacific-

Regional coverage

I II

x III x x x MARINE DATA UTILISATION (of TAO TRITON)

Measured temperatures from Western Pacific Bouy data can be used to anticipate and predict the emergence of El Nino and La Nina (Nino 3.4 SST) to 5-month lag with the positioning and precise depth location.

-- ‰Propose to installed buoy at North Halmahera Sea to improve accuracy of prediction model for anticipation El 126126 128128 130130 132132 Nino and La Nina.

-4-4 -2-2 00 22 BMKG (land)OBSERVATION NETWORK

BMKG Regional GAW (1) Meteorological Geophysics Climatology Center (5) Stations (120) Stations (31) Stations (21) NETWORKNETWORK OFOF WEATHERWEATHER RADARSRADARS To increase the number of observations at Indonesian Sea, BMKG promoted Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) program and installed Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) on 11 commercial ship (PELNI), resulting in real time observational data. (http://maritim.bmkg.go.id/index.php/aws) AUTOMATIC WEATHER SYSTEM ON RIG PLATFORM (AWS RIG)

Zulu

NGL HF RADAR SYSTEM (Ina-TEWS)

Location: Teluk Serang, Banten, West Java Operational Ocean Observing Requirements • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, Air- Sea Fluxes, • Monitoring and Prediction of ENSO, • Variability of Ocean and Surface Atmospheric Conditions for Weather and Climate Products, Including Extremes such as Floods and Droughts, • Development of Applications for Management of Marine Resources or Protected Species Based on Operational Ocean Model Outputs, • Ocean Acidification monitoring, • Others. CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

1. In producing seasonal and sub seasonal climate predictions, we still seek for appropriate indicators (ENSO, NINO3.4, SST, IOD, MJO), whereas sub surface ocean data, SSH have not been taken into account. 2. Global/ regional Forecast models are still in the development phase, not ready for operational purposes (sea state, wave height, current prediction) 3. Requirements for Capacity Building and Training ‹ Technical observation platform (buoy, glider, argo, cable system) ‹ Data Assimilation and Modelling ‹ New Indicators toward better climate prediction for sectors Thank You For Your Attention INDEKS MJO

Indeks bergerak berlawanan arah jarum jam menunjukkan pergeseran MJO ke arah timur. Selama awal Januari (Das I) indeks mengalami pelemahan dan cenderung menghilang. Memasuki pertangahan Januari (15 Jan) indeks menunjukkan penguatan dan muncul pada Phase 5 di wilayah Maritim Continent (Indonesia). Indeks terus menguatn dan bergerak menuju wilayah Pasifik Barat.

Posisi MJO (22/01) menunjukkan penguatan dan muncul di wilayah Pasifik Barat. Monthly Rainfall Forecast for November 2013

Category : Low

Medium

High/Very High

13 MARINE METEOROLOGICAL STATION NETWORK and the RESPONSIBILITY AREA Needs for Indonesian Ocean Observation

Sea Transport. Carrying Maritime Security Capacity Coastal Pollution Oil Spills Fisheries Maritime Security ENSO Sea Transport. IUU Fishing Climate Change Fisheries Fish Migration Tsunami Coastal hazards IOD Climate Change Capture Fisheries Fisheries Deep Sea Deep Sea Res. Sea Transport Expl.

IOD Fish Migration Capture Fisheries Deep Sea Res.

= ITF = Int’l Sea Lanes Inter-agency agreements that have been achieved include:

No. Instansi Kesepakatan

1. Spatial DEM lidar 2 M FROM DATA 2010. Planning Contour maps throughout Jakarta with a digital resolution of 25 cm. Department, Monitoring shorelines around North Jakarta Jakarta Bathymetry up to 30 km around Tangerang and Bekasi. 1:1000 digital maps with multiple versions. Reference point in the northern areas or pillars throughout Jakarta more than 300 points. 2. BIG There are 115 online tide observation stations such as Jakarta and Semarang (locus CIFDP implementation). Map of land cover and land system as an input to development of the model. 3. BPPT •Once there was a review of rob in Pekalongan with MIKE 21. •Modeling tsunami inundation model to TUNAMI. •Complete data bathymetry, but still limited T Carta and survey data assimilation.

4. PUSAIR •It has been proposed to apply FEWS and inundation has been already operational in Jakarta.

5. DISHIDROS •Digital maps ENC (Electronic Navigation Chart) and digital map all ports in Indonesia. •Tidal prediction, although not yet online.

6. Public Works, •There are some data from observation stations automatically using AWRL in some Jakarta streams and observations relating to the sea.

7. BPOL KKP •Available HPC for running models in parallel. 8 LAPAN •Have a Quick Unite Respone to support earthquake and flood information. Observation Research / Modeling Application Analysis BPPT • Managing & archiving data • Research RAMA (data center) • Climate impact observation • Analysis & Dissemination • Disaster ‰ • Modeling & operational Multi Hazard forecast •Climate variability KKP forecasting •Climate change BMKG BMKG analysis • Infrastructure LIPI • Capacity Building User comunity BIG could include other agencies Universities who provide

DISHIDROS Atmosphere, Ocean,Terrestrial Research tailored Institutes products National Climate Observations Plan Observations Climate National DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION for MARINE OBSERVATION INFORMATION (2013)

MIDAS

BMKG BRKP BPPT

DISHI -DROS DASCEWS BIG

LAPAN LIPI