Programme Symposium: The Prospects of E-Mobility in Karachi Arrival of guests : 0930 hrs Guests to be seated : 0945 hrs Recitation from the Holy Quran : 1000 hrs Welcome Address by the President PAE : 1005 hrs PRESENTATIONS 1. The Public & Private Transport System in Karachi by Mr. Ijaz Hussain Khilji : 1015 hrs Discussion by the Participants : 1045 hrs 2. The Cost of Traffic Congestion for Karachi by Prof. Dr. Mir Shabbar Ali : 1100 hrs Discussion by the Participants : 1115 hrs 3. International Scenario of Electric Road Vehicles by Dr. Nasim A. Khan : 1120 hrs Discussion by the Participants : 1150 hrs 4. The Ultimate Solution by Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan : 1205 hrs Discussion by the Participants : 1235 hrs Concluding Observations : 1250 hrs Lunch : 1300 hrs PROSPECTS OF A REPORT ON PAE E-MOBILITY SYMPOSIUM HELD ON DECEMBER20, IN KARACHI 2014 ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN PAKISTAN ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING EDITOR. PROF DR NASIM A. KHAN A REPORT ON PAKISTAN ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING SYMPOSIUM PROSPECTS OF E-MOBILITY IN KARACHI CITY, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN Including Address of President of Pakistan Academy of Engineering Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan Papers presented by The Public & Private Transport System in Karachi by Ijaz Hussain Khilji The Cost of Traffic Congestion for Karachi by Prof Dr Mir Shabbar Ali International Status of E- Mobility by Prof Brig. Dr. Nasim A. Khan The Ultimate Solution by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan and Recommendations of the Symposium held on December 20, 2014 The President; Pakistan Academy of Engineering is Ex Vice Chancellor of NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi The Author-1 is an Ex- Managing Director, Karachi Urban Transport Corporation. Author-2 is Chairman of Department of Urban & transportation Engineering, NED University of Engineering & Technology, Karachi Author-3 is Senior Executive Director at Osmani & Company (Pvt) Ltd, Ex Vice Chancellor of Hamdard University, Karachi and Ex Vice Chancellor of Nazeer Hussain University, Karachi Author-4 is The President Pakistan Academy of Engineering 1 Pakistan Academy of Engineering Address of the President, Dr. –Ing. Jameel Ahmad Khan Honourable guests and my dear fellow engineers. Assalamo Alaikum 1. We are grateful that you very kindly agreed to grace this occasion. It is the first Symposium to address one of the Ten Grand Challenges that we have identified to be addressed by the engineering community. You may visit the subjects of our future symposia listed on our website (http://www.pacadengg.org). The Pakistan Academy of Engineering is a LEARNED SOCIETY and acts as a THINKING LABORATORY. 2. Ladies and gentlemen, I on behalf of the Pakistan Academy of Engineering heartily welcome you on this occasion and express my profound gratitude for your participation. Karachi with a population of almost 20 million is struggling to have a sustainable public and private transport system. This is the most pressing problem of the citizens, who are under extreme distress. Is there a solution, which the latest technologies can deliver? Let us examine the proposition. Mobility is one of human being’s fundamental desires, as well as necessity. It is likely to expand further in the future with the progress of the world economy. Transport consumes about one fourth of the total world energy. It has been recognized internationally that the future of humanity lies in de-carbonizing the transport system radically. According to the statistics released by the Government of Pakistan, the total Primary Energy Supplies amounted to 64.588 million tons of oil equivalent (TOE) in the year 2012-13 as shown in Figure-1 & Figure-2. The Transport Sector is supposed to have consumed 12.713 million TOE i.e. 19.68% of the total Primary Energy Supplies as shown in Figure-3. Petroleum products accounted for 10.368 million TOE and Gas 2.345 million TOE. Road transport alone shared 12.23 million TOE i.e. 18.94% of the total Primary Energy Supplies. 2 Pakistan Academy of Engineering Figure-1: Energy Flow Chart 2012-13 [Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013] Figure-2: Primary Energy Supplies by Source [Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013] 3 Pakistan Academy of Engineering Figure-3: Energy Consumption by Sector [Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2013] 3. Import of Crude and Petroleum Products accounted for more than 83% of the total. Practically the entire energy for the public and private transport system in Pakistan is imported, which puts the country in an extremely vulnerable situation. If any disruption in the imported supply of crude &petroleum products occurs, our entire transport system will be demobilized. We have no strategic energy storage for meeting the exigencies. 4. The increasing deficit in the National Gas Supply is evident as shown in Figure-4, implying that with the depletion of this indigenous source, reliance has to be placed either on imported piped gas or liquid natural gas (LNG). The answer clearly lies in developing an alternative source of energy at the earliest. Figure-4: Demand supply gap in Natural gas sector 4 Pakistan Academy of Engineering 5. Today’s motor vehicles are the main source of air pollution. They account for 50% of Nitrogen oxides (NO), 70% of carbon di oxides (CO and CO2) and 50% of the volatile organic compounds (VOC). Therefore, transforming the Hydrocarbon Economy to Hydrogen Economy has to be earnestly initiated utilizing the renewable energy sources, particularly the abundantly available solar energy in Pakistan as shown in Figure-5. Figure-5 Renewable energy transformation outlook 6. In the subsequent presentations, we shall be able to discuss the various dimensions of this vital issue further. 7. I fervently hope that you will enjoy the presentations and offer your considered opinions during the amply provided time for discussion. THANK YOU. 5 Pakistan Academy of Engineering THE PUBLIC & PRIVATE TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN KARACHI Ijaz Hussain Khilji1 1. INTRODUCTION Travelling the distance has always been the necessity as well as ambition of mankind. Since the greatest invention – the wheel – human mobility has transformed from animal driven carts to steam and oil engines – moving onwards to jets and virtual movement in cyber space. The mobility however has been singularly dependent on development of pathways in the shape of dirt roads, fixed and flexible pavements, highways and eventually the air ways. The desire of mankind to create most efficient tools and means of travel has overtime given rise to most complex road and air networks facilitating commute and communication. The movement of knowledge, skills and physical transportation of teeming millions along with cascading incremental cargos has put enormous pressure on the ever crumbling communication infrastructure. The demands of a globalized world for seamless transportation of men and cargo have thrown challenges of unparallel dimensions to the planners, social scientists and engineers around the world. The big cities and metropolitans bursting at seams with population pressure are struggling hard to keep pace with the rapidly increasing requirements of road infrastructure. The ghost of ill planned and uncontrolled urbanization is visibly manifested in traffic jams, higher numbers of road accidents and virtual brocade of much desired efficient mobility. In particular, the developing economies and emerging markets like Pakistan are the worst hit. The gap between resources and requirements need imaginative efforts and planning. The city of Karachi from a population of 357,000 at the time of independence in the year 1947 has grown exponentially and at present, is estimated to be around 20 million and is expected to be 35 million by the year 2030. The urbanization of the city coupled with various industrial centers i.e. SITE, KITE, LITE, PQA and other small industrial zones spread over in the city of Karachi in a formal and informal manner, requires considerable work force, obviously causing manifold increase in the commuters and vehicles on the road. The socio economics status of Karachi is shown in slide # 2, the existing population and projected growth of population is shown in slide # 3, whereas the Urban Sprawl from 2005 to 2015 is shown in slide # 4, the growth of population in Karachi as estimated by JICA in their study Karachi Transport Improvement Plan (KTIP # 2012) is shown in slide # 5, to cater for growth in population, the planned Urban development projects are shown in slide # 6. However, this has not been matched with an appropriate master plan to provide an efficient transport system, leading to traffic congestion, more travel time, accidents, and environmental & social issues. Efforts have been made to cope with the increased traffic on road by providing detours, one-ways, flyover, expressways, road-widening, traffic education, new rules and heavy fines – racing against ever-growing operational demands the city thirsts for long-term solutions. Unable to fully handle the gush of heterogeneously jostling traffic, the arteries start getting blocked at vital points and the effect can be felt in every aspect of the city’s industrial, professional and personal life. It has snowballing negative effect on work, productivity, family bonds, health, happiness, environment and quality of living is hard to control. As cities grow physically and humanly, the load of vehicular trips on the road system also goes up and when the traffic level of any travel corridor in one direction exceeds 10,000 persons per hour it calls for a pragmatic policy shift towards encouraging the introduction of a Mass Transit System. The overview of transport sector i.e. Transportation of public vehicles are reflected in slide # 7, 8, 9& 10 whereas the Modal distribution of vehicle is shown in slide # 11. The vehicle ownership by town is shown in slide # 1 Mr Ijaz Hussain Khliji was Ex- Managing Director, Karachi Urban Transport Corporation 6 Pakistan Academy of Engineering 12, whereas the Nos.