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Forest Sector and Primary Forest Products Industry Contributions to the Economies of the Southern States: 2011 Update

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Forest Sector and Primary Forest Products Industry Contributions to the Economies of the Southern States: 2011 Update J. For. 113(2):205–209 BRIEF COMMUNICATION http://dx.doi.org/10.5849/jof.14-054 economics Forest Sector and Primary Forest Products Industry Contributions to the Economies of the Southern States: 2011 Update Consuelo Brandeis and Donald G. Hodges The analysis in this article provides an update on the southern forest sector economic activity after the down- 2009 figures. Information on the economic turn experienced in 2008–2009. The analysis was conducted using Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) software contribution of forest industries and trends in and data sets for 2009 and 2011 and results from the USDA Forest Service Timber Products Output latest survey of roundwood consumption before and through primary wood processing mills. Although improving economic conditions are reflected by increased mill roundwood the recession can be found in Hodges et al. consumption during 2011, the forest industry’s economic contribution improved slightly but not across all states. At the (2012) and Brandeis et al. (2012). regional scale, the sector displayed a downward trend in employment, value added, and number of active primary mills. Data Sources and Methodology Keywords: southern forest products industry, economic contribution, economic contribution, timber harvest, We conducted two analyses, one esti- North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) mating the economic contribution of the forest sector and one estimating the contri- Ͼ bution of a subset of industries compris- he southern forest products sector starts dropped from a high of 2 million units ing primary forest products mills. Primary makes significant contributions to to a low of 554,000 units (Census Bureau mills use logs, either whole or chipped, to the economies of the southern states 2014). As a result, the forest sector experienced T generate a primary product such as lumber, and the United States. The southern region considerable employment loss and lower in- veneer, or wood pulp. The USDA Forest Ser- (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Ken- dustrial output, as well as widespread closures vice Forest Inventory and Analysis Timber tucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Caro- of primary wood-using mills. Products Output (TPO) program for the lina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennes- Economic indicators for 2011, how- see, Texas, and Virginia) holds close to 41% ever, pointed to a recovering economy: southern region performs biennial surveys of of the US timberland and 32% of the grow- gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.4% primary mills. The information, collected for ing stock volume (Miles 2014) and supplies (Bureau of Economic Analysis 2014), un- all primary mills operating during a survey pe- more than half of the US roundwood prod- employment decreased by 0.4% (Bureau of riod, is used to determine the amount and flow ucts (USDA Forest Service 2014). The re- Labor Statistics 2014), and housing starts of harvested wood. Isolating the economic cent US economic downturn, prompted by rose 3.7% (Census Bureau 2014). The contribution of primary industries allowed us the burst of the housing bubble and the positive economic signs indicate likely im- to associate economic effects with mill infor- global economic slowdown, affected the for- provements to the southern forest products mation available from TPO. est sector significantly. Lumber consump- industries as well. To examine the recovery We estimated economic contribu- tion declined by 49%, as construction activ- of both forest sector and primary forest tions using the Impact Analysis for Planning ity fell from a peak in 2005 to the lowest industries in the southern states, we esti- (IMPLAN) software, an input-output model level observed over past decades in 2009. mated the corresponding economic contri- system widely used to estimate economic im- During the 2005–2009 period, housing butions for 2011, drawing comparisons to pacts (IMPLAN Group, LLC 2011). Received May 21, 2014; accepted January 27, 2015. Affiliations: Consuelo Brandeis ([email protected]), USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis, Knoxville, TN. Donald G. Hodges ([email protected]), University of Tennessee. Acknowledgments: We thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions. Journal of Forestry • March 2015 205 The forest sector contribution was eval- uated using IMPLAN data sets for 2009 and 2011. To assess the contribution from pri- mary industries, we ran IMPLAN using em- ployment numbers available from TPO data. For reporting purposes, we aggregated the forest sector industries into five catego- ries: forestry, logging, wood products, pulp and paper products, and furniture. We re- port primary industry results aggregated into the primary wood industry (mills using logs to generate a durable product such as lumber or composite panels and nondurable products such as wood pellets) and primary pulp industry (mills using logs, whole or chipped, to produce wood pulp). The list of industries included for each case, input values used with IMPLAN and reporting ag- gregation schemes are provided as Supple- Figure 1. Percentage of total value added contributed by the forest sector to the southern mental Tables S1 and S2. Results pro- states GRP, 2011. vided include those associated with activity by the forest industries (IMPLANЈs direct 2). Logging, forestry, and wood products in- 2009, and the mill in Isle of Wight, Virginia, effects) and the total economic contribu- dustries showed the slower recovery with which closed during 2010. A few states tion resulting from that activity (IMPLANЈs most states displaying a negative change in experienced gains in employment, occurring total effects). We provide estimates for em- value added. Pulp and paper and furniture mostly within the primary wood industry. ployment (number of full-time and part- industries displayed increasing or stable val- The number of operating primary mills time jobs), labor income (wages and sala- ues across most of the region. North Caro- contracted by 7%, a moderate fall compared ries), and value added (contribution to the lina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia experi- with the mill losses reported over the 2007– gross domestic product). Detailed IMPLAN enced a negative change in value added 2009 period (Table 3). The sawmill industry results are provided as Supplemental Tables across most industry groups. experienced the largest drop in mill num- S3 and S4. Unless otherwise noted, the indi- bers, with losses occurring across most states cated changes refer to 2011 data compared Primary Wood and Primary Pulp Industry (Figure 4). Exceptions included Arkansas and with numbers observed during 2009. All mon- Georgia, where sawmill numbers increased etary values are expressed in 2013 dollars. The primary industry displayed a downward trend, with negative percentage slightly, and Louisiana, where sawmill num- Results changes on employment, labor income, and bers remained stable. Texas and Oklahoma ex- value added (Table 2). The drop in employ- perienced the largest percentages of change (35 Economic Contribution of the Forest ment and labor income was significantly and 23% decreases, respectively). Sector higher in the primary pulp and paper indus- TPO reports operation capacity for The total economic contribution of the tries. The percent change in employment pulp mills; capacity for other primary mills is forest sector amounted to nearly 2% of varied across states (Figure 3). Most of the reported based on volume received, as the South’s gross regional product (GRP). employment change in the primary pulp in- southern TPO does not collect their capac- The percentage of total value added contrib- dustry resulted from the closure of two In- ity information. As such, a significant por- uted by the forest sector to the GRP of the ternational Paper Company mills: the mill in tion of the sawmill losses occurred within southern states ranged from Ͻ1% in Flor- Pineville, Louisiana, which closed at the end of the smaller mill size category (mills receiv- ida, Oklahoma, and Texas to Ͼ4% in Ala- bama, Arkansas, and Mississippi (Figure 1). The sector’s direct and total contributions Management and Policy Implications displayed a further decline during 2011, al- though with varying degrees across industry The information provided should assist forest landowners and policymakers assessing the forest products categories (Table 1). The sector’s total value sector’s economic growth and recovery after the latest recession of 2008–2009. The article reports the added decreased by 9% and direct employ- estimated economic contribution of forest product industries to the economies of the southern states, ment fell by 4%. Forestry and logging dis- providing policymakers with valuable information to help guide future actions affecting the industry. played the most significant change in both Results indicate a slowly recovering industry with decreasing jobs and productivity (value added per employment and value added. worker) among most southern states. The latest survey of primary wood-using mills, however, revealed Industries displayed various degrees of increasing roundwood consumption, a positive sign to timberland owners. recovery across the southern states (Figure Supplementary data are available with this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.5849/jof.14-054. 206 Journal of Forestry • March 2015 Table 1. Direct and total economic contributions of the forest sector, 2009 and 2011. Impact type/industry Employment Labor income Value added group 2009 2011 Change (%) 2009 2011
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