Federated Defense in the Middle East
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SEPTEMBER 2015 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org FEDERATED DEFENSE PROJECT Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 301- 459- 3366 | www.rowman.com Federated Defense in the Middle East PRINCIPAL AUTHORS CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Jon B. Alterman Melissa G. Dalton Colin McElhinny Kathleen H. Hicks Thomas Karako Richard Say ISBN 978-1-4422-5880-8 A Report of the Federated Defense Project Ë|xHSLEOCy258808z v*:+:!:+:! Kathleen H. Hicks, Project Director Melissa G. Dalton, Associate Project Director Cover photo: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ commons/e/e0/Flickr_-_The_U.S._Army_-_Loading_up.jpg Blank Federated Defense in the Middle East PRINCIPAL AUTHORS Jon B. Alterman Kathleen H. Hicks CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Melissa G. Dalton Thomas Karako Colin McElhinny Richard Say A Report of the Federated Defense Project Kathleen H. Hicks, Project Director Melissa G. Dalton, Associate Project Director September 2015 Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-62387_ch00_3P.indd 1 9/9/15 7:06 AM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek About CSIS hn hk io il sy SY eh ek For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to hn hk io il sy SY eh ek develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are hn hk io il sy SY eh ek providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart hn hk io il sy SY eh ek a course toward a better world. hn hk io il sy SY eh ek CSIS is a nonprofit or ga ni za tion headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and hn hk io il sy SY eh ek develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. hn hk io il sy SY eh ek Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive officer in 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2015 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-5880-8 (pb); 978-1-4422-5881-5 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 2 0706 202-887-0200 | www . csis . org 301 - 459 - 3366 | www . rowman . com 594-62387_ch00_3P.indd 2 9/9/15 7:06 AM Contents c A know ledg ments v 1. Introduction 1 2. Strategic Context 6 3. Toward a New Regional Security Framework 10 4. Focus Areas for Federated Defense 14 U.S. Force Posture in the Middle East 14 Information and Intelligence Sharing 17 Counterterrorism 19 Strike 24 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance 26 Maritime Security 30 Missile Defense 33 Cybersecurity 38 5. Constraints to a Federated Approach 42 Differing Threats and Threat Perceptions 42 GCC Po liti cal and Military Constraints 44 Inde pen dent Action and Capability 46 Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge 47 Missile Technology Control Regime 51 Global Arms Competition 53 Human Rights Concerns 54 | III 594-62387_ch00_3P.indd 3 9/9/15 7:06 AM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek 6. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 57 hn hk io il sy SY eh ek Appendix. U.S., Allied, and Partner Forces, hn hk io il sy SY eh ek Bases, and Agreements 65 hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek About the Authors 70 hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek I V | JON B. ALTERMAN and KATHLEEN H. HICKS 594-62387_ch00_3P.indd 4 9/9/15 7:06 AM Ac know ledg ments he authors wish to thank the CSIS project staff for their hard work and valued contri- T butions to this report, particularly Rebecka Shirazi, TJ Cipoletti, Andrew Metrick, Gabriel Coll, and Anthony Bell. The authors also thank Andrew Hunter, Stephanie Sanok Kostro, and Lieutenant Commander Mark Lawrence (USN) for their suggestions and insights on objectives, capabilities, and potential initiatives. The authors appreciate the insights of numerous outside experts who attended closed- door and off- the- record CSIS roundtables and meetings on federated defense, including those from Capitol Hill, the executive branch, the U.S. military, and foreign governments, all of whom contributed their time and opinions to the report. The project team would also like to thank a host of CSIS’s defense industry sponsors for their financial contributions to the Center. The Federated Defense Project is made possible by their generous financial contributions to CSIS, which allows us to pursue a wide range of innovative studies. A number of representatives from these defense companies partici- pated in our workshops and contributed defense industry perspectives to the project team’s proposed initiatives. All financial contributors respected our intellectual in de pen dence at each step along the way. While the contributions of all those mentioned above have enhanced the final product, all findings, opinions, and omissions remain those of the authors. | V 594-62387_ch00_3P.indd 5 9/9/15 7:06 AM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek hn hk io il sy SY eh ek 594-62387_ch00_3P.indd 6 9/9/15 7:06 AM 1 Introduction or de cades, the United States has sought to strengthen the military capabilities of its FMiddle East partners so that they can better defend themselves from threats and become security providers, not merely security consumers.1 Toward that goal, the United States has spent billions of dollars in the region on aid for security training and transfer of advanced weapons systems, and U.S. companies have sold billions more in weapons and other capabilities. The aid and sales have had several goals: to strengthen regional govern- ments’ ties with the United States, to allow for greater interoperability in the event of conflict, to advance the commercial interests of the United States, and to enhance regional partners’ ability to defend themselves while lessening the burden on the United States. Moreover, for the past several de cades, U.S. aid and weapons sales ensured that the United States had a role both in how regional actors used force in their region and how they addressed their security threats. Despite the commitment of considerable U.S. assistance, the burden on U.S. forces and resources continues to be great, while the military potential of most partners remains relatively unrealized. The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) report calls for the Department of De- fense (DoD) to adopt more innovative and flexible approaches to achieve its objectives in the Middle East. This includes building key multilateral capabilities with partners— integrated air and missile defense, maritime security, and special operations forces (SOF) among them. Doing so will be particularly critical if the reductions to U.S. defense spend- ing mandated by the Bud get Control Act (BCA) remain in place. The 2014 QDR report ac- knowledges that BCA cuts to defense would force DoD to assume a leaner, though still responsive, posture in the Middle East2— albeit with the flexibility to expand considerably in times of crisis. This study examines the potential for a “federated defense” approach to U.S. action in the Middle East. It is premised on a view that stabilizing the Middle East requires con- tinued attention and investment from the United States and its global allies and part- ners. Federated defense broadly involves building partner capabilities in a way that shares the burden of providing security in a more effective and efficient manner. As of mid-2015, collective military action is still largely dependent on U.S. capabilities and 1. See, for example, Robert M. Gates, “Helping Others Defend Themselves,” Foreign Affairs 89, no. 3 (May/ June 2010), http:// www . foreignaffairs . com / articles / 66224 / robert - m - gates / helping - others - defend - themselves. 2. U.S. Department of Defense, 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review, March 2014, http:// www . defense . gov / pubs / 2014 _ Quadrennial _ Defense _ Review . pdf. | 1 594-62387_ch01_3P.indd 1 9/9/15 7:06 AM hn hk io il sy SY eh ek support. Federated defense would, over time, create partner capabilities that augment and hn hk io il sy SY eh ek complement U.S. capabilities. Doing so requires identifying discrete areas of cooperation hn hk io il sy SY eh ek between the United States and its allies and partners that would leverage partner capabili- ties in pursuing common security objectives. Most important, it requires making choices hn hk io il sy SY eh ek about which capability areas to prioritize, to what extent, and with which partners.