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Crown Resorts (ASX:CWN) a Corporate Jackpot Or Bust?

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Crown Resorts (ASX:CWN) a Corporate Jackpot Or Bust? Crown Resorts (ASX:CWN) A Corporate Jackpot or Bust? Michael Li | Kevin Zhang KM Capital Company Snapshot Crown’s business structure provides a platform for future success Our Projections Share Performance $12.34 TARGET PRICE BUY RECOMMENDATION 6.5% UPSIDE Total 12M Return $11.59 with dividends: CLOSING PRICE 5th September 2017 11.65% Key Statistics FY17 Revenue Segments Share price $11.59 Wagering & Unallocated 12-month Low/High $9.62 / $13.34 Online 0.3% 6% Market Cap $8.46B Crown Net Debt $173.80M Aspinalls Dividend Paid (Yield) $0.60 (5.18%) 3% Crown Perth Gearing (%) 37.58% 26% Enterprise Value $8.67B Crown Melbourne P/E Ratio 24.52 65% Key Management John Alexander (CEO); James Packer (Director) COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Timeline A refocus towards domestic operations will drive growth in the future Investment Pipeline - Over $2 billion in the next 5 years 2020 Industry Outlook • Industry revenue is forecasted to surpass Share Buyback $7bn by the end of 2020, with growth Star’s Queens Wharf stabilising around 5% y.o.y • In addition to the Initial Share Buy-Back, • The number of casino enterprise are • Construction of a fifth casino in the Crown intends to undertake a further on- estimated to remain at eight, with inner-city of Brisbane, Queensland, market share buy-back of up to 29.3 million establishments forecast to increase to 15 and is expected to finish by 2022 shares (from 13) by 2022 • Investment of A$3bn 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Melco, Macau Crown Sydney Hotel Resort • The company announced that it was • Set to open in 2021, concurrently with selling 13.4% interest of its Melco Crown regulatory approval on a restricted gaming Entertainment Limited, for a consideration license of $1.6 billion • Investment of A$2bn • The proposal includes 350 hotel rooms, 80 luxury apartments and VIP gamingfacilities COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Company Sum-Of-Parts Analysis Crown can be separated into five main business segments Crown’s Strategic Shift Crown Digital (2016 onwards) Crownbet (62% owned) online wagering business Online Betting and Gambling Accommodation Betfair Australasia (100% owned) online betting and Dining exchange International Investments DG Games (70% owned) online social gaming Online Betting business in Austin and Gambling VIP Program Play Sydney Project VIP Program Expected completion by 2021, and will become the Play second legal casino in Sydney (Star) Accommodation and Dining Set to generate significant gaming revenues each year, following completion International Exposure Main Floor Main Floor Gaming Crown Aspinalls is an exclusive high-end London Gaming casino. It is one of only five licensed high-end casinos in London’s prime West End entertainment district, and caters towards international VIP gaming Current portfolio Future portfolio COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Cyclical Recovery in Consumer Spending Crown is well-positioned to benefit from the Australian economy 2.37% AGR 7.8% Growth Net Disposable Income Total Employment (Post-GFC) (2022) 3.5% AGR $140 Billion Australian Wages Tourism Expenditure (2021) (2020) Gambling and Tourism Industry Gambling Expenditure (% of HDI) Revenue Growth (%) 0.80% 20.0 0.70% 15.0 0.60% 0.50% 10.0 0.40% 5.0 0.30% 0.20% 0.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.10% -5.0 0.00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -10.0 Gambling Growth (%) Tourism Growth (%) VIC WA COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Peer Comparison Crown is also well-positioned for upside among listed Australian casinos EV A$bn EV/Sales EV/EBIT P/E Dividend Yield Net Debt/EBIT 8.67 2.6x 16.9x 24.5x 5.2% 0.09x es A$8.46bn i n a p m Co e 5.10 2.3x 12.3x 16.1x 3.1% 2.21x bl ra a p m A$4.17bn Co 2.89 3.3x 14.1x 15.7x 5.4% 2.98x A$2.6bn Mean: A$5.55bn Mean: 2.70x Mean: 14.43x Mean: 18.77x Mean: 4.57% Mean: 1.76x COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Valuation Achieving company objectives will depend on Crown’s four key hubs Valuation Achieving company objectives will depend on Crown’s four key hubs Melbourne Perth Main Floor Gaming Revenue Melbourne and Perth continue to represent the core of Crown’s operations Melbourne and Perth FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E HDI % Modelled Gambling Growth (VIC) 1.77% 2.77% 3.76% 4.87% 4.87% 4.87% % Gambling (Exp. spent on HDI) 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.65% 0.64% 0.64% % Avg. Change in Gambling Exp. spent on HDI -0.21% HDI (Gross) % HDI Growth VIC 1.99% 2.99% 3.98% 5.10% 5.10% 5.10% % Modelled Gambling Growth (WA) -1.53% -0.55% 0.44% 1.54% 1.54% 1.54% % Gambling (Exp. of HDI) 0.61% 0.61% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% % Avg. Change in Gambling Exp. spent on HDI -3.49% Gambling Revenue HDI (Gross) % HDI Growth WA 2.03% 3.05% 4.06% 5.20% 5.20% 5.20% Australian Industry Market Share Geographic Distribution Major Market Segmentation 35% 8.20% 30% 25.30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 66.50% 0% ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA Interstate Patrons Local Patrons Establishments Population International Visitors COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Valuation Achieving company objectives will depend on Crown’s four key hubs Aspinalls Sydney (London) Crown Sydney Crown Sydney will focus on VIP program play under a restricted license Revenue and Other Income ($'000) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Crown Sydney Main Floor Gaming - - - - - - - VIP Program Play - - 231,493 237,280 Total Revenue - - - - - - 231,493 237,280 Operating Expenses FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A Average Operating expenses margin (% of revenue) – Melbourne (CWN) 41% 41% 41% 41% 40% 40% 37% 38% 44% 41% Operating expenses margin (% of revenue) – Perth (CWN) 46% 44% 50% 46% 48% 47% 43% 46% 54% 47% Operating expenses margin (% of revenue) – Sydney (SGR) 39% 35% 36% 38% 37% Operating expenses margin (% of revenue) – Gold Coast (SGR) 53% 50% 50% 48% 50% Average operating expenses margin (% of revenue) 44% 43% 45% 44% 44% 44% 40% 42% 49% Revenues Expenses • Crown Forecasts • Operating Expenses • VIP Turnover Adjustment • Gaming Tax and Commissions COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Five more key items in scenario DCF analysis The Valuation Methodology Valuation Methodology – Sum of parts DCF Analysis 3. WACC used 1. Revenue was considered by each different location, before considering its 3 key CAPM (Equity Cost of Capital) business areas which are: main floor gaming, VIP program play and non gaming Risk Free Rate 2.66% Beta 1.15 Market Risk Premium 6.00% 2. Expenditure was driven by looking back at 5 years of historical EBITDA margins by location Current Total Equity 7,720,185 Debt 1,979,101 3. WACC Cash 1,771,227 Net Debt 207,874 Equity Plus Net Debt (E + D - C) 7,928,059 4. Capital expenditure Calculation of the WACC 5. Depreciation Equity Cost of Capital 10% E/(D + E - C) 97% Debt Cost of Capital 9.05% 6. Consideration of the sale of Alon Project in Vegas D/(D+E) 3% Debt Cost of Capital Accounting for Tax 9.05% WACC 9.55% 7. The rise of Crown Digital, and the expected EBITDA margins in the future Adjustment 0% Adjusted WACC 9.55% 4. Capital Expenditure 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Four more key items in scenario DCF analysis The Valuation Methodology 5. Depreciation 6. Sale of Alon Project ($'000) AUD USD Historical Depreciation Expense Analysis 300,000 9.00% Purchase price 301,000 280,000 8.00% Selling price 1 (Jun 18) 493,151 360,000 250,000 7.00% Selling price 2 (Jun 19) 480,000 360,000 200,000 6.00% 5.00% 150,000 Average selling price in AUD (over next 2 years) 486,575 4.00% 100,000 3.00% Capital Gains on Sale of Alon (incremental benefit) 185,575 2.00% Capital Gains Tax - treated as of income with 30% 55,673 50,000 1.00% Total expected gain on sale in cash 430,903 - 0.00% FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 ($'000) Expected Gain on sale for Alon Project in Cash FY18 FY19 FY20E Total depreciation expense Depreciation Split over 2 years (FY18 to FY19) equally 215,451 215,451 - 7. Wagering and Online Gaming (i.e. Crown Digital) Wagering and Online Projected Revenue to 2023E Crown Digital Exponential Stabilisation - Revenue 600,000 35.00% 32.00% 500,000 30.00% 400,000 25.00% 20.00% 300,000 15.00% 200,000 10.00% 100,000 5.00% 1.90% 0.00% - 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION BUY Rating for CWN Based on scenario based DCF analysis $A per share Historic share price 12-month price target(A$) $14.67 $12.94 $9.99 Sept 2018 Base case: $12.94 • Positive industry outlook driven by growth in main floor and Crown Digital, but also a focus on wagering and online gaming revenue to continue growing, although VIP program play remains flat • Refocus on strategy that is domestic in nature, following the selling of the entire stake of MRE, and maintaining EBITDA margins Downside case: $9.99 • VIP turnover reducing, with unfavourable macroeconomic trends governed by sluggish GDP growth rates/interest rates, that may lead to a dividend cut from the expected 60c per annum, and overestimated growth in Crown Digital Upside case: $14.67 • The strong growth of the Australian economy, inviting further tourism and encouraging overall consumer discretionary spending for CWN • Completion of CWN Sydney boosting VIP program play, attracting more high rollers both domestically and internationally at Barangaroo, but also the expected stabilisation of debt capacity COMPANY INDUSTRY THESIS VALUATION RECOMMENDATION Table of Appendix See below for links DCF Model Appendix Bloomberg and Further Research Appendix 1.
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