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Regional Project/Programme Proposal REGIONAL PROJECT/PROGRAMME PROPOSAL PART I: PROJECT/PROGRAMME INFORMATION Title of Project/Programme: Improved Resilience of Coastal Communities in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Countries: Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Thematic Focal Area: Disaster risk reduction and early warning systems Type of Implementing Entity: MIE Implementing Entity United Nations Human Settlements Programme Executing Entities: Ghana: LUSPA; NGO Côte d’Ivoire: Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development, Ministry of Planning and Development; NGOs Amount of Financing Requested: US$ 13,951,160 PROJECT BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT I. Problem statement Due to climate change, the West Africa region faces sea level rise, rainfall variability and increasing temperatures, which trigger several hazards, especially sea and riverine floods, coastal erosion, higher incidence of weather extremes since decades. West Africa’s coastal areas host about one third of the region’s population and generate 56 percent of its GDP (WB, 20191), meaning that any hazard occurring along the coast affects huge -and still growing- numbers of human beings and livelihoods. Flood events in coastal West Africa have been more severe between 2005-2015, with a total of 132 events, with more than 14 million people affected, 2,000 dead and almost 400,000 homeless. Economies were also affected as it caused US$ 830 million of economic losses (IUCN/PAC, 20162). In addition to flood events (both riverine and pluvial), and sea-level rise, soil erosion and salinization are threatening food security. Figure 1 Climate Change drivers, risks, and impacts Climate-related hazards in coastal zones present different temporal-aspects: immediate onset hazards, and slow onset hazards (ORRAA, 2020)3. Immediate onset hazards are cyclones, storms, flooding, inundations. Slow onset hazards are related to coastal erosion. The combination of hazards, exposure and vulnerability, worsen by risk multipliers (such as unsustainable development, poverty and inequality, and environmental degradation), determine climate change impacts such as salinization, ecosystems loss, ecosystems loss, increased poverty, increased inequalities, and increased food security (Figure 1 and 3). Of course, different dimensions of risk and impacts call for different adaptation strategies. Adaptation to climate change, in general, can be built on the combination of vulnerability reduction and resilience Figure 2 Climate Change and Coastal West Africa development. While it is impossible to generalize across the varied ecologies of the West African coast, there are some common vulnerabilities that should be of particular 1 World Bank (2019). THE COST OF COASTAL ZONE DEGRADATION IN WEST AFRICA: BENIN, CÔTE D’IVOIRE, SENEGAL AND TOGO. 2 IUCN/PACO (2016). Regional Assessment on Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Biodiversity in West and Central Africa. A report for the Resilience through Investing in Ecosystems – knowledge, innovation and transformation of risk management (RELIEF Kit) project. Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: IUCN. 58pp. 3 ORRAA (2020). https://www.oceanriskalliance.org/about/ocean-risk/ 1 concern to policymakers. These include increasing coastal erosion and loss of wetlands (including mangroves and deltas), negative impacts on fisheries and croplands, and increasing risks to urban settlements areas (Badjek et al. 20144). The Governments of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have requested UN-Habitat to support coastal (and riverine / delta) cities and communities to better adapt to climate change. This project proposal aims at responding to this request by addressing the main challenges in these coastal zones: coastal erosion, coastal inundation, flooding and livelihoods’ resilience. Figure 3. Coastal climate-change drivers of risk, hazards, and responses. II. West African and national contexts i. II.a. Regional overview Socio-economic context According to the World population prospects of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, West Africa's total population is estimated at 381 million people as of 20185. The region has been experiencing intensive urbanization for more than fifty years. This urbanization has affected the region’s largest towns and small urban centers mostly in coastal countries. Indeed, a large percentage of West Africa's urban population lives in coastal cities. The population concentrated in coastal urban areas, could double by 2030 and double again by 2050. In Lagos only, the number of inhabitants could almost reach 90 million by 2100, making it the largest city in the world by then6. The 2010 UNHABITAT State of the World Cities report identified "megaregions" and "urban corridors" as new urban forms that could be "one of the most significant developments—and problems—in the way people live and economies grow in the next 50 years". The Abidjan-Lagos corridor is one of these megaregions, with a fast-growing urban population of over 30 million. Many experts7 consider this coastal urban corridor to be the engine of West Africa’s regional economy. Economic growth disparities do exist among the countries of the region. Some countries are experiencing higher economic growth while others are expected to decline. Despite this urbanization, rural development plays a key role as agriculture is still the cornerstone of rural economies in West Africa. Agriculture accounts for 65% of employment and 35% of gross domestic product (GDP)8. Marine artisanal fishing is also a major contributor to this GDP. Still, poverty is higher in rural areas where most of the population, nearly 80% of the region, depends on subsistence agriculture and fishing. Nowadays, these activities are generating fewer jobs due to how badly they are impacted by climate change and unsustainable practices. This explains why rural areas are diversifying and highlights the importance of its interaction with urban settlements as growth continues. Another major socioeconomic challenge in West Africa is the high unemployment rate. After declining from 4.2% in 2010, to 3.7%in 2015, the region’s average rate of unemployment shot up to 5.2% in 2018. Youth unemployment is generally much higher than adult unemployment. Figure 4. Abidjan-Lagos corridor mega region. UN-Habitat 4 Badjeck, M.C., Bohn, B., and Sommerville, M. (2014) Climate Change and Water Resources in West Africa: Coastal Biophysical and Institutional Analysis. USAID. 5 "World Population prospects – Population division". population.un.org. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieved November 9, 2019. 6 http://www.visualcapitalist.com/animated-map-worlds-populous-cities-2100/ 7 https://www.uneca.org/sites/default/files/PublicationFiles/int_progr_ri_inceptionecowaseng.pdf 8 West Africa Economic outlook, African Development Bank Group, 2019 2 Environmental context West Africa has a total land area of 6,140,000 km2, or approximately one-fifth of Africa. The region is around 300 meters above sea level with only a few mountainous areas. The land consists of contrasting kinds of physical environment, among which we find forests, savannas, mountainous areas, flat lands, riverine areas, and sandy soil. Its coastline is also a major ecosystem accounting for over 10,000 kilometers which extend from Mauritania to Benin. This natural environment supplies the region with a rich natural resource base including soil, forest, rangeland, freshwater, and marine resources. This produces a variety of goods and services which strongly support livelihoods of rural population. This is particularly evident in coastal areas, and even more in estuary systems and fluvio-marine connections, where these resources contribute directly to producing ecological services that are useful or even 9 indispensable to the coastal societies. Coastal areas and deltas consist of sediments which are mainly supplied from upstream catchments by rivers This transport is very dynamic both downstream and along the coast, and it is driven by predominant flow conditions. These dynamics are essential to keep coastlines in morpho dynamic equilibrium.10 Sediment along the West African coast is redistributed mainly by a primarily eastward longshore current, in the form of littoral drifts and less importantly, by tidal currents. In general, sediment is transported both by longshore transport (i.e. parallel to the shoreline) and onshore transport (i.e. perpendicular to the shoreline). However, the main sources of sediment to this littoral zone are from rivers and erosion of shores and cliffs. There are several coastal streams and lagoons along the coastline that deposit sediment into the marine environment, such as the Volta estuary. The conservation of this coastal environment is under stake as it is increasingly pressured by multiple threats like climate change and human activities. Impacts on natural resources and thus population well-being is compromising the long-term development of the region. These dynamics are further described in section III.a. ii. II.b. Côte d’Ivoire Socio-economic context Based on the World Bank data from 2018, Côte d’Ivoire has reached a total population of around 25 million people in 2018.11 The Ivorian coastline hosts most of the country's population and a significant part of its economy. Indeed, coastal areas host 30% of the Ivorian population and shelter nearly 80% of the country's economic activities.12 There is a clear higher concentration in the main city, Abidjan, which exceeded 4 million inhabitants in 2010 making it the second most populous city in West Africa
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