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The Twenty-First Century, 2000-2016 Y2k “Crisis” Does Not Cause Crisis Y2K “CRISIS” DOES NOT CAUSE CRISIS January 1, 2000 Despite predictions of disaster to businesses, govern- and so easily corrected that even the most optimistic 2000 ments, and public services, the worldwide transition experts were surprised. to the year 2000 caused few problems for computers, The story of the Y2K transition problem began thanks to extensive preparations. with the development of commercial computing. In 1957, Rear Admiral Grace Murray Hopper invented ALSO KNOWN AS: Millennium bug a programming language called FLOW-MATIC, the LOCALE: Worldwide first to be based on English in order to make comput- CATEGORIES: Science and technology; Business and ers easier for businesses to use. FLOW-MATIC formed economics; Computers and computer science the basis for COBOL, the name of which derived from “common business-oriented language.” The principal KEY FIGURES data storage device of the times was the eighty-column Grace Murray Hopper (1906-1992), inventor of the punch card. To conserve space, COBOL used only six English-based computer language FLOW-MATIC, digits to represent any given calendar date—two each which evolved into COBOL for the month, the day, and the year, as in “04/15/53” Robert Bemer (1920-2004), co-developer of COBOL for April 15, 1953. This shortcut dating method saved who was the first to publish warnings about the date as much as twenty dollars in the production of a date- problem hidden in most computer software sensitive record, so it was an important way of econo- Peter de Jager (b. 1955), Canadian computer consultant mizing as businesses grew dependent on computers. who was an early, influential advocate of preparing Computer scientists, led by Robert Bemer, one of for the Y2K transition COBOL’s developers, warned that using only two digits Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1927-2003), chair of the for each year designation would later cause problems U.S. Senate committee that persuaded the federal and argued for a four-digit style. However, the desire of government to prepare for Y2K businesses to minimize their immediate expenses over- John A. Koskinen (b. 1939), chair of the President’s whelmed such objections. When International Busi- Council on Year 2000 Conversion ness Machines (IBM) designed its System/360 main- frame computer (marketed in 1964), it incorporated the SUMMARY OF EVENT COBOL two-digit year format. That computer, and its Across North America and around the world, people dating style, became the industry standard. Bemer again waited nervously as midnight approached on December published warnings about the dating problem in 1971 31, 1999. Many wondered whether predictions of doom and 1979, but his protests stirred little interest and no about the year 2000 computer transition, popularly change. To most businesses and government agencies called the Y2K (for “year 2000,” with k representing the the heart of the danger—the arrival of the year 2000— Greek kilo for “thousand”) problem or the millennium seemed too far away to worry about at the time. bug, would prove correct: would power and water sup- In 1993, Peter de Jager, a Canadian computer plies fail, food distribution be disrupted, the economy engineer, published an article with the alarming title begin to disintegrate, nuclear missiles launch acciden- “Doomsday 2000” in Computerworld, a magazine tally, and widespread civil disturbances begin as com- aimed at technology managers. In that article and subse- puters and computer networks failed everywhere? No quent lectures, de Jager argued that the Y2K bug could one was completely sure how to answer these questions, initiate massive disruptions and plunge the economy even though massive efforts to avert any possible prob- into a recession. Computers, he pointed out, would read lems occupied governments and businesses throughout a date such as “01/01/00” as “January 1, 1900,” because the late 1990’s. there was no provision for numbers 2000 and higher in A definitive answer was apparent within days after their software, and computer-processed date-sensitive January 1, 2000, came and went: there were no disasters. information was fundamental to national infrastructures. Some computer problems did occur on New Year’s Day There were already signs that he was right: That same and afterward, but they were so few, so inconsequential, year, a U.S. missile warning system malfunctioned 1 Great Events Vol I_2000-2003.indd 1 4/13/17 5:18 PM Y2k “Crisis” Does Not Cause Crisis The Twenty-First Century, 2000-2016 when its computer clocks were experimentally turned As the year 2000 approached, the frenzy of prepa- forward to 01/01/00. ration increased, and predictions of disaster grew more During the next seven years, other glitches turned ominous. Some consumers stockpiled generators, up sporadically during testing. At the same time, with money, food, and fuel in case utility and supply systems gathering momentum, attempts were under way to rem- became disrupted on January 1, 2000. Some govern- edy the date problem. In 1996, Senator Daniel Patrick ment agencies failed to meet their August 31 deadline Moynihan of New York held committee hearings on for Y2K compliance. Large corporations worried that the Y2K bug and directed the Congressional Research their preparations were insufficient, and about a third Service to study the potential problem. The report pro- of small American businesses made no preparations duced as a result helped to convince President Bill Clin- whatsoever. ton to establish the President’s Council on Year 2000 When the moment of truth came and passed on New Conversion, directed by John A. Koskinen, in 1998. Year’s Day of 2000, no system failures occurred, and Koskinen oversaw programs to adjust the software used essential services were uninterrupted even in countries, by government agencies. The U.S. government also such as Russia, that were both sophisticated in terms of ordered many organizations essential to the economy, the computer technology in use and largely unprepared such as stock brokerages, to fix the problem—that is, to for the date turnover. There were problems, however. “become Y2K compliant”—by August 31, 1999. Some were comical, as when a 105-year-old man was Despite initial skepticism about the true serious- directed to attend kindergarten, some newborn children ness of the Y2K problem, big companies soon under- were registered as born in 1900, and the Web site of took remediation efforts of their own. Most employed the U.S. Naval Observatory, the government’s official one or more of three basic methods, termed “window- timekeeper, proclaimed the date as “January 1, 19100.” ing,” “time shifting,” and “encapsulation.” Windowing, Most problems were simply annoyances. Some the most common, entailed teaching computers to read records were accidentally deleted, software used to ser- 00 as 2000 and to place other two-digit year dates in vice credit cards double-charged some users, renters their appropriate century. Time shifting involved pro- returning videos that were one day overdue were billed gramming computers to recalculate dates automatically for thousands of dollars in late charges, and cell phone following a formula. Encapsulation, a refinement of messages were lost. Most such problems were easily time shifting, added 28 to two-digit years to synchro- corrected. Other problems were potentially more seri- nize computers with the cycles of days of the week and ous. For example, one Wall Street computer inflated a of leap years. January 1, 2000, for instance, would not few stock values, and a small number of company secu- fall on the same day of the week as January 1, 2005, and rity systems failed. Some satellites, including one U.S. so adjustments were necessary to accommodate such spy satellite, lost contact with their controllers. Software discrepancies. All three techniques required exhaus- modifications and simple common sense were sufficient tive searches and reprogramming of mainframes and to rectify the errors. personal computers that processed time-sensitive infor- The Y2K problem did not end with the New Year’s mation, such as pay schedules and product expiration date turnover, however. One expert calculated that only dates. about 10 percent of the problems would turn up imme- Computer chips embedded in various kinds of diately. For instance, the leap year day February 29, equipment posed further difficulties. Since their intro- 2000, caused at least 250 glitches in seventy-five coun- duction in the early 1970’s, microprocessors had been tries, although none was major. built into appliances, tools, automobiles, and machin- ery of all kinds: By the late 1990’s, they controlled the SIGNIFICANCE operations of nuclear power plants, utilities, hospital Even though the year 2000 turnover passed with- technology, weaponry, and climate control systems in out disaster, the event itself and the preparations for buildings, in addition to such mundane devices as home it revealed how thoroughly modern society had come microwave ovens. With between thirty-two billion and to rely on a sophisticated technological infrastructure. forty billion chips in use by 2000, their potential for Controlling and coordinating that infrastructure are causing trouble was enormous even if only a fraction of computers and, increasingly since about 1990, com- them controlled time-sensitive operations, and often the puter networks, especially the Internet. The Y2K threat chips were difficult to extract and replace.