CRVA Report – Guinea

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CRVA Report – Guinea Country Risk and Vulnerability Ass essment GUINEA SEPTEMBER 2017 ECOWAS COMMISSION COMMISSION DE LA CEDEAO COMMISSÃO DA CEDEAO Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Guinea | 1 DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Cover photo: “Conakry” by Sebastian Losada, accessed via Flikr (https://www.flickr.com/people/22162338@N07). Reproduced under Creative Commons CC BY-SA 2.0. Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................... 5 Message from the President of the ECOWAS Commission .................................................................................... 7 Statement from the Vice President of the ECOWAS Commission ......................................................................... 8 Preface ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................. 12 Research Process ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Terminology and Conceptual Definitions .......................................................................................................... 14 Literature Review ................................................................................................................................................ 15 Research Questions ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Description of the Sample ................................................................................................................................. 17 Data Analysis ...................................................................................................................................................... 17 Scope and Limitations of the Study .................................................................................................................. 19 Country Background ............................................................................................................................................... 21 National-Level Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resiliencies ......................................................................................... 24 Economics and Resources (Most Vulnerable Pillar) ......................................................................................... 28 Population and Demographics (Second Most Vulnerable Pillar) ..................................................................... 31 Politics and Governance (Third Most Vulnerable Pillar) ................................................................................... 34 Security (Fourth Most Vulnerable Pillar) ........................................................................................................... 36 Rule of Law (Least Vulnerable Pillar) ................................................................................................................ 38 External Factors .................................................................................................................................................. 40 Gender Considerations ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Sub-National Level Vulnerabilities, Risks and Resilience Factors: Observations by Region ............................. 44 Boké Region ........................................................................................................................................................ 44 Conakry Region ................................................................................................................................................... 49 Faranah Region .................................................................................................................................................. 54 Kankan Region ................................................................................................................................................... 60 Kindia Region ...................................................................................................................................................... 66 Mamou and Labé Regions ................................................................................................................................. 70 Nzérékoré Region ............................................................................................................................................... 74 Conclusion and Recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 79 Appendix A: Data Sample ....................................................................................................................................... 82 Appendix B: Vulnerability Index ............................................................................................................................. 86 Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Guinea | 3 Appendix C: Additional References ....................................................................................................................... 88 Appendix D: Matrix of Vulnerabilities, Risks, Resilience Factors, and Recommendations by Human Security Pillar ......................................................................................................................................................................... 89 Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Guinea | 4 Acronyms and Abbreviations ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project AfDB African Development Bank AU African Union ADR Alternative Dispute Mechanisms AVDR Association of Volunteers for Rural development BI Baïonnette Intelligente CENAFOD Centre Africaine de Formation pour le Développement CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CRA Conflict Risk Assessment CRVA Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment DPA ECOWAS Directorate of Political Affairs DPKRS ECOWAS Directorate of Peacekeeping & Regional Security ECOWARN ECOWAS Early Warning and Response Network ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECPF ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework EGES La Gestion de Leadership en Milieu Electoral EU European Union EWD ECOWAS Directorate of Early Warning FGD Focus Group Discussion FGM/C Female genital mutilation and cutting GBV Gender-based violence GIS Geographic Information System GSDRC Governance and Social Development Resource Centre ICC International Criminal Court IFI International Finance Institution INIDH Institution Nationale Indépendante des Droits de l’Homme (National Independent Institution of Human Rights) KII Key Informant Interview NGO Non-Governmental Organization OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PCUD Platforme Nationale desk Citoyens Unis pour le Développement PDG Parti Démocratique de Guinée (Democratic Party of Guinea) REWARD Reacting to Early Warning and Response Data in West Africa RPG Rassemblement du Peuple Guinéen (Rally of the Guinean People) SAG Sociéte AngloGold Ashanti SAWL Small Arms and Light Weapons SFCG Search for Common Ground SitReps ECOWARN Situation Reports SNA Stakeholder Network Analysis SSR Security Sector Reform UDESKI Union for the Economic and Social Development of Kissidougou UFDG Union des Forces Démocratiques de Guinée (Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea) Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Guinea | 5 UN United Nations USAID United States Agency for International Development WANEP West Africa Network for Peacebuilding Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: Guinea | 6 Message from the President of the ECOWAS Commission The 15 Member-States of the ECOWAS Community represent a thriving region of the world, with a population of approximately 366 million and a rich human and topographical diversity. From the coastline to the mountain peaks of Fouta Djallon, across the Sahara and the mangroves of the Niger Delta, ECOWAS is home to diverse families, communities, and nations. Over the last decade, the region has witnessed significant progress in lifting the standard of living for millions. However, along with the richness of natural resources, human capital and great opportunity, there are also challenges to contend with such as natural disasters, pandemics, ethno-sectarian tensions, and security threats caused by extremism and terrorism. Global developments and changes such as advances in technology, human migration and climate change, have added new levels of complexity, presenting new challenges for strategic planning and preparedness as we look ahead to the future. This is where Early Warning plays a critical role in helping ECOWAS to understand the changing dynamics so as to strengthen decision making and early response at the regional and national levels. The Country Risk
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