Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments
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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the RAND Corporation technical report series. Reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope; present discus- sions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research profes- sionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments Appendices EDWARD GONZALEZ, KEVIN F. McCARTHY TR-131-RC May 2004 Prepared for the National Defense Research Institute Approved for public release; distribution unlimited This research in the public interest was supported by the RAND Corporation, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gonzalez, Edward. Cuba after Castro : legacies, challenges, and impediments. Appendices / Edward Gonzalez, Kevin F. McCarthy. p. cm. “TR-131.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3573-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Cuba—Politics and government—1959– 2. Castro, Fidel, 1926– 3. Cuba—Social conditions. 4. Cuba— Economic conditions. 5. Social prediction—Cuba. 6. Economic forecasting—Cuba. 7. Cuba—Forecasting. I. McCarthy, Kevin F., 1945– II.Title. F1788.G58823 2004b 972.9106'4—dc22 2004004377 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] - iii - PREFACE This report and the five studies it comprises serve as a companion volume to the RAND Corporation report by Edward Gonzalez and Kevin F. McCarthy, Cuba After Castro: Legacies, Challenges, and Impediments (MG- 111-RC, 2004), which integrates and synthesizes the main findings of these five studies. Although this report is issued as a separate volume, it is meant to accompany and support the initial report with more detailed analyses of the political, social, demographic, and economic problems that confront Cuba today and that are certain to continue to tax the capacity of any government that comes to power in the post- Castro era. In Appendix A of this report, Edward Gonzalez, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at UCLA and a member of the adjunct staff at RAND, examines the impact that the legacies of caudilloism and totalitarianism are likely to have on a future Cuba. In Appendix B, Damian J. Fernández, Professor of International Relations at Florida International University, discusses the growing alienation of Cuban youth and its implications for the island’s political future. In Appendix C, Kevin F. McCarthy, Senior Social Scientist at RAND, investigates Cuba’s demographic trends, characterized by an aging population and a shrinking work-age population, and the difficult public policy choices that will confront any new government in Cuba as a result of those trends. In Appendix D, Jorge F. Pérez-López, a labor economist who has written extensively on the Cuban economy, analyzes the impediments that Castro’s socialist economy will pose to future efforts by a successor government to restructure and revitalize the island’s economy. Finally, in Appendix E, Pérez-López narrows his focus to Cuba’s troubled sugar industry. This report should be of interest to U.S. policymakers and analysts concerned with Cuba, members of Congress, and a wider audience outside the U.S. government. - iv - This report and the initial Cuba After Castro volume build on a long tradition of RAND research on Cuba. Among the most relevant studies are the following: • Edward Gonzalez and David F. Ronfeldt, Cuba Adrift in a Postcommunist World, R-4231-USDP, 1992 • Edward Gonzalez and David F. Ronfeldt, Storm Warnings for Cuba, MR-452-OSD, 1994 • Edward Gonzalez, Cuba: Clearing Perilous Waters? MR-673-OSD, 1996. This report results from RAND’s continuing program of self- sponsored independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provision of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. This research was overseen by the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), a division of the RAND Corporation. NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the U.S. intelligence community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. - v - THE RAND CORPORATION QUALITY ASSURANCE PROCESS Peer review is an integral part of all RAND research projects. Prior to publication, this document, as with all documents in the RAND technical report series, was subject to a quality assurance process to ensure that the research meets several standards, including the following: The problem is well formulated; the research approach is well designed and well executed; the data and assumptions are sound; the findings are useful and advance knowledge; the implications and recommendations fol- low logically from the findings and are explained thoroughly; the documentation is accurate, understandable, cogent, and temperate in tone; the research demonstrates understanding of related previous stud- ies; and the research is relevant, objective, independent, and balanced. Peer review is conducted by research professionals who were not members of the project team. RAND routinely reviews and refines its quality assurance process and also conducts periodic external and internal reviews of the quality of its body of work. For additional details regarding the RAND quality assurance process, visit http://www.rand.org/standards/. - vii - CONTENTS Preface..............................................................iii Tables................................................................ix Acknowledgments.......................................................xi Appendix A THE LEGACIES OF FIDELISMO AND TOTALITARIANISM Edward Gonzalez........................................................1 Fidelismo: A New Variation on Caudilloism..............................2 From Totalitarianism to Post-Totalitarianism..........................12 Cuba’s Totalitarian Order.............................................13 The Mutation to Post-Totalitarianism..................................15 The Regime’s Staying Power............................................23 The Legacies of Caudilloism and Totalitarianism.......................26 Totalitarianism/Post-Totalitarianism’s Imprint on Society.............35 Conclusion: From a Strong State to a Failed State?....................51 Bibliography..........................................................55 Appendix B THE POLITICS OF YOUTH IN CUBA: PATTERNS, DYNAMICS, AND FUTURE CHALLENGES Damian J. Fernández...................................................61 Introduction..........................................................61 The Cuban Youth: A Demographic, Social, and Political Profile.........65 Socialization and Desocialization Among the Young.....................80 Challenges to Socialization and Governance: Present and Future........92 Future Challenges.....................................................94 Conclusion...........................................................100