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JYP Entertainment Buy (035900 KQ ) (Maintain) [Korea] Entertainment March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment Buy (035900 KQ ) (Maintain) Firming up TP: W47,000 Upside: 33.5% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected] 4Q20 review Consolidated revenue of W41.7bn ( -6% YoY), OP of W10.5bn ( -22.1% YoY); in -line results In 4Q20, JYP Entertainment’s top line contracted due to the absence of concerts; however, robust album/digital content revenue provided a cushion. Due to changes in the revenue mix, royalty fees and production costs fell 6% and 12% YoY, respectively, leading to gross margin improvement (+4.4%p YoY to 54.2%). Album/digital music (+47.1% YoY): A total of 1.04mn copies were sold, including 480,000 copies for TWICE, 200,000 copies for Stray Kids, and 340,000 copies for GOT7. Management (-53.6% YoY): Concerts (-100% YoY) and advertising (-40% YoY) were hit hard by the pandemic. Merchandise/other (-26.2% YoY): YouTube revenue (W4.7bn; +102% YoY) was boosted by NiziU’s growing fan base. Despite higher SG&A expenses (labor and commissions), a shift in income source from management to content improved underlying profitability. Growing optimism on 2021 Watch for global projects and greater monetization in 2021 earnings Despite being relatively new, the group NiziU contributed W5bn to 4Q20 revenue across album sales, digital content, and YouTube. JYP Entertainment has a strong next-generation lineup (Stray Kids and ITZY) and ample new artist momentum (an audition show titled LOUD will air in May). The company is also continuing to work on its global lineup (China’s Project C, a Japanese boy band, and a new artist development partnership in the US). The share of global traffic on the company’s fast-growing YouTube channels has increased sharply to 59% (vs. 32% in 2017). We believe the continued strength of digital content will once again prove the company’s ability to increase its earnings without the help of concerts. Valuation and recommendation Maintain Buy and TP of W47,000 Our target valuation is based on a P/E of 30x our 2021 net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W54bn. Earnings worries caused by the absence of concerts are subsiding, thanks to strong content revenue. Expectations on reopening could also come into play. We think JYP Entertainment is in a sweet spot, given its cash cow (TWICE), growth profile (Stray Kids/ITZY), and global exposure (NiziU and new artists in the US/China/Japan). We recommend Buy on JYP Entertainment in light of its expanding lineup, NiziU’s growing presence, and new long-term growth engines (AR/VR, etc.). Key data Current price (3/18/21, W) 35,200 Market cap (Wbn) 1,250 270 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (20, Wbn) 44 Shares outstanding (mn) 35 220 Consensus OP (20, Wbn) 46 Free float (%) 74.9 170 EPS growth (20, %) -5.7 Foreign ownership (%) 21.3 120 P/E (20, x) 46.2 Beta (12M) 0.87 70 Market P/E (20, x) 21.2 52-week low (W) 15,350 3.20 7.20 11.20 3.21 KOSDAQ 949.83 52-week high (W) 43,250 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Absolute -4.9 -12.0 102.3 Revenue (Wbn) 74 102 125 155 144 197 Relative -3.1 -17.6 3.3 OP (Wbn) 14 19 29 43 44 70 OP margin (%) 18.9 18.6 23.2 27.7 30.6 35.5 NP (Wbn) 8 16 24 31 30 54 EPS (W) 246 471 685 883 832 1,522 ROE (%) 13.4 21.4 22.5 21.9 17.2 26.0 P/E (x) 20.0 29.2 44.2 27.4 46.2 23.1 P/B (x) 2.1 4.8 7.7 5.0 7.0 5.1 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment Earnings forecasts and valuation Table 1. Valuation table (Wbn, x, %) 19 20 21F Current P/E 39.1 41.4 22.7 Fair market cap 1,621 1,621 1,621 NP 31 30 54 Target P/E 51.8 54.9 30.0 Target price (W) 46,621 46,621 46,621 Upside (%) 32.4 32.4 32.4 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 2019 2020 2021F Revenue 26 39 46 44 34 34 35 42 155 144 197 Album/digital content 10 15 16 17 10 22 18 24 57 75 94 Management 9 14 17 12 6 3 5 5 51 19 41 Concerts 2 5 10 5 1 0 0 0 21 1 16 Advertising 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 17 12 14 Appearance fees 3 4 3 3 1 1 2 3 13 6 11 Other 8 11 12 16 18 9 12 12 47 50 63 OP 5.8 9.4 14.8 13.5 13.4 9.1 11.1 10.5 43 44 70 OP margin (%) 22.0 24.1 32.4 30.4 39.6 26.5 32.2 25.2 28.0 30.6 35.4 Pretax profit 7.2 8.7 14.3 12.8 14.2 7.9 9.9 5.9 43 38 70 NP 6.3 6.9 11.7 6.2 11.3 4.7 7.7 5.9 31 30 53 Net margin (%) 24.0 17.7 25.7 14.1 33.3 13.8 22.3 14.2 20.1 20.5 26.9 NP attributable to owners of the parent 6.4 6.8 11.7 6.3 11.3 4.7 7.7 5.8 31.3 29.5 54.0 YoY Revenue 14.5 24.1 34.5 22.0 28.9 -12.8 -24.1 -6.0 24.5 -7.1 36.4 Album/digital content 1.3 39.6 18.3 6.7 8.9 50.6 10.3 47.1 16.0 31.2 25.0 Management 0.8 -5.2 79.1 -8.7 -38.8 -75.2 -70.5 -53.6 12.7 -62.3 110.0 Concerts 97.0 -33.7 150.0 16.0 -37.1 -100.0 -99.5 TTR 32.8 -94.6 1,302.5 Advertising -17.6 -4.2 19.8 23.7 -8.2 -39.9 -33.4 -40.2 3.7 -31.2 18.0 Appearance fees -4.3 69.7 47.2 -49.0 -76.3 -83.3 -23.7 10.5 -0.6 -50.4 71.4 Other 70.2 61.7 15.0 100.8 135.1 -21.6 -4.3 -26.2 56.7 6.9 25.0 OP 322.7 3.9 74.5 36.9 132.3 -3.9 -24.6 -22.1 51.2 1.6 57.9 NP 241.2 -5.2 73.7 -25.3 78.6 -32.4 -34.0 -5.2 28.6 -5.1 78.7 NP attributable to owners of the parent 249.4 -5.9 80.0 -23.1 76.3 -30.9 -34.5 -8.2 31.3 -5.6 82.9 Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume ( ‘000) 130 857 461 752 305 1,399 824 1,038 2,200 3,567 3,900 Ticket sales volume in Japan ( ‘000) 150 220 120 90 150 0 0 0 580 150 400 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment Figure 1. Improvement in underlying profitability thanks to Figure 2. Improvement in underlying profitability thanks to strategic shift from management to content (quarterly) strategic shift from management to content (annual) (%) (%) (%) (%) 110 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) 70 110 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) 60 Gross margin (R) Gross margin (R) 100 100 90 60 90 50 80 80 70 50 70 60 60 40 50 40 50 40 40 30 30 30 30 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. JYP Entertainment’s daily YouTube views rise in line with new album releases (mn views) I Can't Stop Me (TWICE) 30 More & More (TWICE) Wannabe (ITZY) 25 Make You Not Shy (ITZY) Not by the Moon Happy (NiziU) 20 (GOT7) 15 10 Back Door Step and a Step Menu 5 神 (Stray Kids) (NiziU) (Stray Kids) 0 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. YouTube views by label: Traffic to increase on NiziU’s growing presence (mn views) 1,200 SM (SM Town) JYP (JYP Entertainment + TWICE) 1,000 YG (YG Entertainment + BLACK PINK + iKON + WINNER) Big Hit (ibighit + BangtanTV) 800 600 400 200 0 8/15 2/16 8/16 2/17 8/17 2/18 8/18 2/19 8/19 2/20 8/20 Source: YouTube, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ) Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F Revenue 125 155 144 197 Current assets 83 116 141 205 Cost of revenue 69 79 68 91 Cash & equivalents 45 39 64 97 Gross profit 56 76 76 106 AR & other receivables 13 14 13 22 SG&A expenses 27 33 33 37 Inventory 1 1 1 1 OP (adj.) 29 43 44 70 Other current assets 24 62 63 85 OP 29 43 44 70 Non-current assets 77 92 90 89 Non-operating profit 1 0 -6 0 Investments in associates 0 0 0 0 Net financial income 0 1 1 2 PP&E 37 39 39 36 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 29 29 31 31 Pretax profit 30 43 38 70 Total assets 159 208 231 294 Income tax 6 12 8 17 Current liabilities 31 43 41 55 Profit from continuing operations 24 31 30 53 AP & other payables 9 10 9 13 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 0 1 1 2 NP 24 31 30 53 Other current liabilities 22 32 31 40 Attributable to owners 24 31 30 54 Non-current liabilities 1 2 3 3 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 -1 Long-term financial liabilities 0 1 2 2 Total comprehensive income 24 32 30 53 Other non-current liabilities 1 1 1 1 Attributable to owners 24 32 30 53 Total liabilities 31 45 43 59 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Equity attributable to owners 127 159 183 232 EBITDA 30 47 48 73 Capital stock 18 18 18 18 FCF 10 49 34 61 Capital surplus 71 77 77 77 EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 30.3 33.3 37.1 Retained earnings 48 76 100 149 OP margin (%) 23.2 27.7 30.6 35.5 Minority interests 1 3 4 3 Net margin (%) 19.2 20.0 20.8 27.4 Shareholders' equity 128 162 187 235 Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2018 2019 2020 2021F Operating cash flow 23 51 36 61 P/E (x) 44.2 27.4 46.2 23.1 NP 24 31 30 53 P/CF (x) 30.6 17.9 32.3 17.6 Non-cash income/expenses 10 16 13 18 P/B (x) 7.7 5.0 7.0 5.1 Depreciation 1 3 4 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 33.8 16.3 26.0 14.8 Amortization 0 0 0 0 EPS (W) 685 883 832 1,522 Other 9 13 9 15 CFPS (W) 988 1,346 1,189 2,001 Chg.
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