[Korea] Entertainment March 19, 2021

JYP Entertainment Buy (035900 KQ ) (Maintain)

Firming up TP: W47,000 Upside: 33.5%

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected]

4Q20 review Consolidated revenue of W41.7bn ( -6% YoY), OP of W10.5bn ( -22.1% YoY); in -line results ó In 4Q20, JYP Entertainment’s top line contracted due to the absence of concerts; however, robust album/digital content revenue provided a cushion. Due to changes in the revenue mix, royalty fees and production costs fell 6% and 12% YoY, respectively, leading to gross margin improvement (+4.4%p YoY to 54.2%). ó Album/digital music (+47.1% YoY): A total of 1.04mn copies were sold, including 480,000 copies for TWICE, 200,000 copies for Stray Kids, and 340,000 copies for GOT7. ó Management (-53.6% YoY): Concerts (-100% YoY) and advertising (-40% YoY) were hit hard by the pandemic. ó Merchandise/other (-26.2% YoY): YouTube revenue (W4.7bn; +102% YoY) was boosted by NiziU’s growing fan base. ó Despite higher SG&A expenses (labor and commissions), a shift in income source from management to content improved underlying profitability.

Growing optimism on 2021 Watch for global projects and greater monetization in 2021 earnings ó Despite being relatively new, the group NiziU contributed W5bn to 4Q20 revenue across album sales, digital content, and YouTube. ó JYP Entertainment has a strong next-generation lineup (Stray Kids and ITZY) and ample new artist momentum (an audition show titled LOUD will air in May). ó The company is also continuing to work on its global lineup (China’s Project C, a Japanese boy band, and a new artist development partnership in the US). ó The share of global traffic on the company’s fast-growing YouTube channels has increased sharply to 59% (vs. 32% in 2017). We believe the continued strength of digital content will once again prove the company’s ability to increase its earnings without the help of concerts.

Valuation and recommendation Maintain Buy and TP of W47,000 ó Our target valuation is based on a P/E of 30x our 2021 net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W54bn. ó Earnings worries caused by the absence of concerts are subsiding, thanks to strong content revenue. Expectations on reopening could also come into play. ó We think JYP Entertainment is in a sweet spot, given its cash cow (TWICE), growth profile (Stray Kids/ITZY), and global exposure (NiziU and new artists in the US/China/Japan). ó We recommend Buy on JYP Entertainment in light of its expanding lineup, NiziU’s growing presence, and new long-term growth engines (AR/VR, etc.). Key data

Current price (3/18/21, W) 35,200 Market cap (Wbn) 1,250 270 JYP Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (20, Wbn) 44 Shares outstanding (mn) 35 220 Consensus OP (20, Wbn) 46 Free float (%) 74.9 170 EPS growth (20, %) -5.7 Foreign ownership (%) 21.3

120 P/E (20, x) 46.2 Beta (12M) 0.87

70 Market P/E (20, x) 21.2 52-week low (W) 15,350 3.20 7.20 11.20 3.21 KOSDAQ 949.83 52-week high (W) 43,250

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Absolute -4.9 -12.0 102.3 Revenue (Wbn) 74 102 125 155 144 197 Relative -3.1 -17.6 3.3 OP (Wbn) 14 19 29 43 44 70

OP margin (%) 18.9 18.6 23.2 27.7 30.6 35.5 NP (Wbn) 8 16 24 31 30 54 EPS (W) 246 471 685 883 832 1,522 ROE (%) 13.4 21.4 22.5 21.9 17.2 26.0 P/E (x) 20.0 29.2 44.2 27.4 46.2 23.1 P/B (x) 2.1 4.8 7.7 5.0 7.0 5.1 Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment

Earnings forecasts and valuation

Table 1. Valuation table (Wbn, x, %)

19 20 21F Current P/E 39.1 41.4 22.7 Fair market cap 1,621 1,621 1,621 NP 31 30 54 Target P/E 51.8 54.9 30.0 Target price (W) 46,621 46,621 46,621 Upside (%) 32.4 32.4 32.4 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 2019 2020 2021F Revenue 26 39 46 44 34 34 35 42 155 144 197 Album/digital content 10 15 16 17 10 22 18 24 57 75 94 Management 9 14 17 12 6 3 5 5 51 19 41 Concerts 2 5 10 5 1 0 0 0 21 1 16 Advertising 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 17 12 14 Appearance fees 3 4 3 3 1 1 2 3 13 6 11 Other 8 11 12 16 18 9 12 12 47 50 63 OP 5.8 9.4 14.8 13.5 13.4 9.1 11.1 10.5 43 44 70 OP margin (%) 22.0 24.1 32.4 30.4 39.6 26.5 32.2 25.2 28.0 30.6 35.4 Pretax profit 7.2 8.7 14.3 12.8 14.2 7.9 9.9 5.9 43 38 70 NP 6.3 6.9 11.7 6.2 11.3 4.7 7.7 5.9 31 30 53 Net margin (%) 24.0 17.7 25.7 14.1 33.3 13.8 22.3 14.2 20.1 20.5 26.9 NP attributable to owners of the parent 6.4 6.8 11.7 6.3 11.3 4.7 7.7 5.8 31.3 29.5 54.0 YoY Revenue 14.5 24.1 34.5 22.0 28.9 -12.8 -24.1 -6.0 24.5 -7.1 36.4 Album/digital content 1.3 39.6 18.3 6.7 8.9 50.6 10.3 47.1 16.0 31.2 25.0 Management 0.8 -5.2 79.1 -8.7 -38.8 -75.2 -70.5 -53.6 12.7 -62.3 110.0 Concerts 97.0 -33.7 150.0 16.0 -37.1 -100.0 -99.5 TTR 32.8 -94.6 1,302.5 Advertising -17.6 -4.2 19.8 23.7 -8.2 -39.9 -33.4 -40.2 3.7 -31.2 18.0 Appearance fees -4.3 69.7 47.2 -49.0 -76.3 -83.3 -23.7 10.5 -0.6 -50.4 71.4 Other 70.2 61.7 15.0 100.8 135.1 -21.6 -4.3 -26.2 56.7 6.9 25.0 OP 322.7 3.9 74.5 36.9 132.3 -3.9 -24.6 -22.1 51.2 1.6 57.9 NP 241.2 -5.2 73.7 -25.3 78.6 -32.4 -34.0 -5.2 28.6 -5.1 78.7 NP attributable to owners of the parent 249.4 -5.9 80.0 -23.1 76.3 -30.9 -34.5 -8.2 31.3 -5.6 82.9 Key assumptions Domestic album sales volume ( ‘000) 130 857 461 752 305 1,399 824 1,038 2,200 3,567 3,900 Ticket sales volume in Japan ( ‘000) 150 220 120 90 150 0 0 0 580 150 400 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment

Figure 1. Improvement in underlying profitability thanks to Figure 2. Improvement in underlying profitability thanks to strategic shift from management to content (quarterly) strategic shift from management to content (annual)

(%) (%) (%) (%) 110 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) 70 110 Contribution of non-management revenue (L) 60 Gross margin (R) Gross margin (R) 100 100

90 60 90 50 80 80

70 50 70

60 60 40 50 40 50

40 40

30 30 30 30 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 3. JYP Entertainment’s daily YouTube views rise in line with new album releases

(mn views) I Can't Stop Me (TWICE) 30 More & More (TWICE) Wannabe (ITZY) 25 Make You Not Shy (ITZY) Not by the Moon Happy (NiziU) 20 (GOT7)

15

10

Back Door Step and a Step Menu 5 神 (Stray Kids) (NiziU) (Stray Kids) 0 1/20 2/20 3/20 4/20 5/20 6/20 7/20 8/20 9/20 10/20 11/20 12/20

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Figure 4. YouTube views by label: Traffic to increase on NiziU’s growing presence

(mn views) 1,200 SM (SM Town) JYP (JYP Entertainment + TWICE) 1,000 YG (YG Entertainment + BLACK PINK + iKON + WINNER) Big Hit (ibighit + BangtanTV) 800

600

400

200

0 8/15 2/16 8/16 2/17 8/17 2/18 8/18 2/19 8/19 2/20 8/20

Source: YouTube, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

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JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F Revenue 125 155 144 197 Current assets 83 116 141 205 Cost of revenue 69 79 68 91 Cash & equivalents 45 39 64 97 Gross profit 56 76 76 106 AR & other receivables 13 14 13 22 SG&A expenses 27 33 33 37 Inventory 1 1 1 1 OP (adj.) 29 43 44 70 Other current assets 24 62 63 85 OP 29 43 44 70 Non-current assets 77 92 90 89 Non-operating profit 1 0 -6 0 Investments in associates 0 0 0 0 Net financial income 0 1 1 2 PP&E 37 39 39 36 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 29 29 31 31 Pretax profit 30 43 38 70 Total assets 159 208 231 294 Income tax 6 12 8 17 Current liabilities 31 43 41 55 Profit from continuing operations 24 31 30 53 AP & other payables 9 10 9 13 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 0 1 1 2 NP 24 31 30 53 Other current liabilities 22 32 31 40 Attributable to owners 24 31 30 54 Non-current liabilities 1 2 3 3 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 -1 Long-term financial liabilities 0 1 2 2 Total comprehensive income 24 32 30 53 Other non-current liabilities 1 1 1 1 Attributable to owners 24 32 30 53 Total liabilities 31 45 43 59 Attributable to minority interests 0 0 0 0 Equity attributable to owners 127 159 183 232 EBITDA 30 47 48 73 Capital stock 18 18 18 18 FCF 10 49 34 61 Capital surplus 71 77 77 77 EBITDA margin (%) 24.0 30.3 33.3 37.1 Retained earnings 48 76 100 149 OP margin (%) 23.2 27.7 30.6 35.5 Minority interests 1 3 4 3 Net margin (%) 19.2 20.0 20.8 27.4 Shareholders' equity 128 162 187 235

Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2018 2019 2020 2021F Operating cash flow 23 51 36 61 P/E (x) 44.2 27.4 46.2 23.1 NP 24 31 30 53 P/CF (x) 30.6 17.9 32.3 17.6 Non-cash income/expenses 10 16 13 18 P/B (x) 7.7 5.0 7.0 5.1 Depreciation 1 3 4 3 EV/EBITDA (x) 33.8 16.3 26.0 14.8 Amortization 0 0 0 0 EPS (W) 685 883 832 1,522 Other 9 13 9 15 CFPS (W) 988 1,346 1,189 2,001 Chg. in working capital -4 6 5 4 BPS (W) 3,930 4,818 5,516 6,893 Chg. in AR & other receivables -3 1 1 -9 DPS (W) 122 155 155 155 Chg. in inventory 0 1 0 0 Dividend payout ratio (%) 16.6 16.4 17.3 9.7 Chg. in AP & other payables -1 1 0 1 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Income tax -8 -4 -14 -17 Revenue growth (%) 22.5 24.0 -7.1 36.8 Cash flow from investing activities -14 -59 -6 -22 EBITDA growth (%) 36.4 56.7 2.1 52.1 Chg. in PP&E -13 -2 -2 0 OP growth (%) 52.6 48.3 2.3 59.1 Chg. in intangible assets 0 0 0 0 EPS growth (%) 45.4 28.9 -5.8 82.9 Chg. in financial assets -6 -42 4 -22 AR turnover (x) 10.6 11.6 10.7 11.2 Other 5 -15 -8 0 Inventory turnover (x) 79.6 143.1 215.4 256.5 Cash flow from financing activities 11 1 -7 -5 AP turnover (x) 12.6 26.5 37.9 44.3 Chg. in financial liabilities 0 2 0 0 ROA (%) 17.1 17.0 13.5 20.2 Chg. in equity 16 6 0 0 ROE (%) 22.5 21.9 17.2 26.0 Dividends 0 -4 -5 -5 ROIC (%) 45.1 62.8 77.0 121.8 Other -5 -3 -2 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 24.5 28.0 23.1 24.9 Chg. in cash 20 -6 25 33 Current ratio (%) 270.7 269.4 346.9 369.9 Beginning balance 25 45 39 64 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -47.6 -58.5 -64.7 -74.2 Ending balance 45 39 64 97 Interest coverage ratio (x) 0.0 884.3 478.0 645.8 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 March 19, 2021 JYP Entertainment

Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history

Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) JYP Entertainment JYP Entertainment (035900) 11/17/20 Buy 47,000 50,000 08/18/20 Trading Buy 41,000 40,000 05/31/20 Trading Buy 27,000 11/14/19 Buy 31,000 30,000 08/15/19 Buy 28,000 20,000 04/23/19 Buy 41,000 10/24/18 Buy 46,500 10,000

0 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21

Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 78.43% 11.76% 8.50% 1.31% Investment banking services 66.67% 22.22% 11.11% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of December 31, 2020)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

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