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CASH DEPARTMENT

COUNTERFEIT REPORT

January–September 2019

October 2019 Currency Report – January–September 2019 National Bank of Serbia

Contents:

1. Expert analysis of and ...... 2 2. Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes ...... 4 3. Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes ...... 6

1 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2019 National Bank of Serbia

1. Expert analysis of banknotes and coins

In the first nine months of this year, expertise of suspected counterfeit banknotes showed that a total of 2,988 notes were , which is 4.7% less than in the same period last year, when a total of 3,134 false banknotes were detected. However, given the greater number of higher denominations, the nominal value increased by 12.1% (RSD 3,711,000.00 in the first nine months of 2019 compared to RSD 3,309,170.00 in the same period of 2018). Table 1 shows the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits.

Table 1 Dinar counterfeits, January–September 2019 (pieces) Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 Total Pieces 27 908 1,482 552 3 12 4 2,988 Share in % 0.9 30 50 18.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 100

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In terms of the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits, the 1000-, 2000- and 500-dinar banknotes accounted for the dominant share (Chart 1). Percentage-wise, these three denominations made up 98.5% of the overall number of dinar counterfeits.

Chart 1 Denomination structure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−September 2019 (pieces) 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 18.5%

30%

50%

50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Chart 2 illustrates the trends observed over the last nine years in terms of the number of detected counterfeits of these three most frequent denominations.

2 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2019 National Bank of Serbia

Chart 2 The most frequent dinars counterfeits (pieces)

8000 7,213 7000

6000 5000 4000 2,808 2,770 3000 2,531 2,330 2,106 2,087 1,782 2000 1,590 1,510 860 2,115 1000 1,562 1,267 1,729 1,199 1,382 1,435 1,372 725 1,114 964 794 0 741 350 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

500-dinar 1000-dinar 2000-dinar Source: National Bank of Serbia.

In value terms, the 2000- and 1000-dinar banknotes made up the largest share of the dinar counterfeit structure (Table 2 and Chart 3). In percentage terms, these two denominations accounted for 88.8% of all dinar counterfeits.

Table 2 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January–September 2019 (RSD thousand) Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 Total Pieces 135 1,816 1,482 276 0.6 1.2 0.2 3,711 Share in % 3.7 48.9 39.9 7.5 0 0 0 100

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

Chart 3 Denomination structure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−September 2019 (nominally) 0% 0% 0%

3.7% 7.5%

39.9%

48.9%

50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

3 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2019 National Bank of Serbia

A comparison of the number of detected dinar counterfeits with that of genuine dinar banknotes in circulation reveals that 7.7 pieces in every 1 million circulating banknotes were found to be counterfeit, i.e. of RSD 1 bn in circulation, RSD 15,572 of counterfeit was identified.

2. Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes

In the period January–September 2019, in the process of expert analysis of suspect counterfeits, 1,153 foreign counterfeit banknotes were detected, 2.7 times more than in the same period in 2018 when 432 foreign counterfeit banknotes were identified. Their currency and denomination structure is presented in Table 3.

Тable 3 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January–September 2019 (pieces) Currency ЕUR Total USD Total Othe Total Denominatio EUR USD r 500 200 100 50 20 10 5 100 50 20 n Pieces 22 19 813 99 21 4 2 980 114 11 1 126 47 1,153 Share in % 1.9 1.6 70.5 8.6 1.8 0.3 0.2 85 9.9 1 0.1 10.9 4.1 100 Source: National Bank of Serbia.

A total of 980 counterfeit banknotes were detected during the period observed, 2.6 times more than in the same period last year, when 370 of such banknotes were detected. The ratio between the number of the most frequently detected euro counterfeits – 100- and 50-euro banknotes over the last nine years is presented in Chart 4.

Chart 4 The most frequent euro counterfeits (pieces)

1,200 966 1,081 1,023 1,000 776 800

535 600 511 734

400 295 323 227 159 200 133 118 239 243 299 197 129 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

50-euro 100-euro

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

4 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2019 National Bank of Serbia

In the first nine months of this year, a total of 126 counterfeit US banknotes were detected, which is 2.6 times more than in the same period last year, when 48 dollar banknotes were established to be counterfeit. The predominant counterfeit banknotes were those of 100 . Chart 5 shows movements in the number of detected 100-dollar counterfeits over the last nine years.

Chart 5 The most frequent US-dollar counterfeit (pieces)

1,600 1,572 1,400 1,193 1,200 1,000 800 504 600 400 266 94 107 141 105 200 74 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

100-dollar

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

The item “Other” in Table 3 refers to fake banknotes in four different – Deutsche mark (30 pieces), (ten pieces), (five pieces) and Bosnian convertible mark (two pieces). In nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total detected foreign currency counterfeits and their percentage vis-à-vis the figures from the same period a year earlier are best illustrated if expressed in ,1 as shown in Chart 6.

Chart 6 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January−September 2018 and 2019 (EUR thousand) 120 101.5 100

80 I-IX I-IX 2018 2019 60 41.6 40 20 10.9 11.1 4.1 2.4 0 EUR USD Other EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

1 For conversion of other currencies into euros, for the years 2018 and 2019 we applied the middle exchange rate as at 2 October 2019.

5 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–September 2019 National Bank of Serbia

3. Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes

Chart 7 shows the ratio of the number of detected dinar to foreign currency counterfeit banknotes in the total detected counterfeits for the period January– September 2019.

Chart 7 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits detected in January−September 2019 (pieces)

47 126

980

2,988

RSD EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia. As shown, the share of counterfeit dinar banknotes (72.2%) exceeds the share of all detected foreign currency counterfeits. However, in nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total counterfeits in the first nine months of 2019 is best illustrated if expressed in dinars2 (Chart 8). Chart 8 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits detected in January ̶ September 2019

(RSD thousand)

1,305.1

1,286.4 3,711.0

11,929.9

RSD EUR USD Other

Source: National Bank of Serbia.

The euro (65.4%), followed by the dinar (20.4%) and the US dollar (7.1%) took up the dominant share in total discovered counterfeits.

2 For conversion of other currencies into the dinar we applied the middle exchange rate as at 2 October 2019.

6