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The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 3

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The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 3 The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 3 The final report to the Congress by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Advanced Counterfeit Deterrence Steering Committee, pursuant to Section 807 of PL 104-132 September 2006 Contents Contents .......................................................................................................... i Preface........................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary.................................................................................... vii Introduction................................................................................................................. vii Findings Regarding the International Use of U.S. Currency...................................... vii The Introduction of the Series 1996 New Currency Design (NCD) and the Series 2004 New Color of Money Design (NCM)..................................................... viii Findings Regarding the International Counterfeiting of U.S. Currency...................... ix 1 Introduction.............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .........................................................................................................1 1.2 Design of the Study .............................................................................................2 1.3 International Demand for the U.S. Dollar ...........................................................3 1.4 Measuring the Extent of International Counterfeiting of U.S. Currency ............5 1.5 Organization of the Remainder of the Report .....................................................6 2 The U.S. Currency Public Education Program.................................... 7 2.1 Overview: Introduction of New Currency Designs.............................................7 2.2 Introducing the New Currency Design (Series 1996 NCD)................................8 2.3 International Education and Training (Series 2004 NCM) .................................9 3 Country Surveys of Currency Usage: The ICAP Trips..................... 12 3.1 Overview of the Currency Surveys ...................................................................12 3.2 Criteria for Country Selection ...........................................................................13 3.3 Patterns of International U.S. Dollar Usage......................................................15 3.3.1 Dollarized Economies: Ecuador and El Salvador...................................17 3.3.2 Russia......................................................................................................18 3.3.3 Eurasia.....................................................................................................19 3.3.4 Argentina: A Long-Term Dollar User ....................................................19 3.3.5 Southeast Asia.........................................................................................20 3.3.6 Other Areas .............................................................................................21 3.3.7 Inferences Regarding Countries Not Visited by ICAP Teams ...............23 3.4 Judging the Plausibility of Estimates of International Dollar Holdings from Country Surveys................................................................................................23 3.5 Changing Conditions in Countries Surveyed ....................................................26 3.5.1 Transaction Technologies .......................................................................26 3.5.2 The Euro..................................................................................................26 4 Models of International Demand for and Use of U.S. Currency ...... 28 4.1 Data Sources......................................................................................................28 4.1.1 Major Wholesale Banknote Dealers .......................................................28 4.1.2 Federal Reserve Bank Cash Office Processing Data ..............................29 4.1.3 Currency and Monetary Instrument Reports...........................................29 4.1.4 ICAP Trips and Other Institutional Information.....................................29 i 4.2 Methods for Measuring Flows and Stocks of U.S. Currency Abroad...............30 4.2.1 The Seasonal Method..............................................................................30 4.2.2 The Biometric Method............................................................................31 4.2.3 Wholesale Demand for Currency............................................................32 4.2.4 Summary of Estimates ............................................................................34 5 The International Distribution of U.S. Banknotes ............................. 36 5.1 International U.S. Banknote Market Structure..................................................36 5.2 The Federal Reserve’s Currency Distribution Mission.....................................37 5.3 Means of International Currency Distribution ..................................................38 5.4 The Extended Custodial Inventory Program.....................................................38 6 International Counterfeiting of U.S. Currency .................................. 42 6.1 General Considerations .....................................................................................42 6.2 Counterfeit Production Methods .......................................................................45 6.3 Recent Experience with Counterfeiting ............................................................47 6.3.1 Overall Figures on Passing and Seizures of Counterfeit U.S. Currency 47 6.3.2 Rates of Counterfeiting in Federal Reserve Statistics.............................48 6.3.3 Counterfeiting Inside and Outside the United States..............................49 6.3.4 International Law Enforcement Cooperation with the U.S. Secret Service.....................................................................................................52 6.3.5 International Training .............................................................................53 6.4 Counterfeiting Activity by Country of Origin...................................................56 6.5 Counterfeiting in Key Countries and Regions ..................................................60 6.5.1 Latin America .........................................................................................60 6.5.2 Colombia: Primary Foreign Producer of Counterfeit Dollars Passed in the United States .....................................................................................61 6.5.3 Peru .........................................................................................................65 6.5.4 The Russian Caucasus.............................................................................65 6.5.5 Bulgaria: Update.....................................................................................66 6.5.6 China: Update .........................................................................................66 6.5.7 North Korea and the Supernote...............................................................66 6.6 The Changing Nature of the Counterfeiting Threat ..........................................67 7 Estimates of Counterfeiting .................................................................. 70 7.1 Theoretical Work...............................................................................................71 7.2 Data Sources......................................................................................................72 7.2.1 U.S. Secret Service Data.........................................................................72 7.2.2 Federal Reserve Data ..............................................................................73 7.3 Estimating the Total Quantity of Counterfeits in Circulation Worldwide ........75 7.3.1 Estimating the Minimum Stock of $100 Counterfeits in Circulation.....75 7.3.2 Using Federal Reserve and U.S. Secret Service Data to Estimate the Total Stock of $100 Counterfeits in Circulation.....................................78 7.3.3 Extrapolating from $100 Counterfeits to All Counterfeits .....................79 7.4 The Next Step: How Unrepresentative Are Our Data? .....................................79 7.4.1 Hoarding: Some Empirical Evidence from ICAP Team Travels............80 7.4.2 Scant Evidence for Pools of Undetected Counterfeits............................80 ii 7.5 Conclusion.........................................................................................................81 8 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................... 82 8.1 International U.S. Dollar Holdings....................................................................82 8.2 U.S. Dollar Counterfeiting Abroad ...................................................................83 8.3 Currency Distribution and Education Program.................................................84 References.................................................................................................... 86 iii Preface The Department of the Treasury wishes to thank the Congress for its insight in the passage of PL104-132, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, which initiated this study. The Congressional mandate contained in PL 104-132, Section 807 has enabled Treasury, the Federal Reserve,
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