Comparative Analysis of the Life Cycle Cost of High Speed Rail Systems 高速鉄道システムのライフサイクルコストに関する比較分析
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Master’s Thesis 修士論文 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE LIFE CYCLE COST OF HIGH SPEED RAIL SYSTEMS 高速鉄道システムのライフサイクルコストに関する比較分析 Etienne LE MAOUT Student ID: 37-106940 Advisor /指導教員: Dr. Hironori KATO 加藤 浩徳 准教授 Signature Date Seal Advisor: Co-Advisor: Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo August 2012 ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Assistant Professor Hironori Kato for his stimulating guidance, for his time and patience, and for the pressure he put when necessary, but never in excess. His high expectations are matched by his careful attention, his friendliness and the confidence he puts in his students. My thanks also go to other professors in the International Projects Laboratory, Professor Hideyuki Horii and Professor Riki Honda for their valuable advice. IP Lab offers a stimulating and open environment, and I wish to thank all its members, in particular Shunsaku Komatsuzaki for his support to students, as well as the former and current students of the “K-team”. I would like to express my thanks to my co-advisor Hitoshi Ieda who is without a doubt one of the greatest teachers and professors, with a contagious passion to share and learn. This thesis was made possible thanks to the interviewees both in Japan and in Europe who have accepted to give me some of their time and knowledge. In particular, I wish to express my special thanks to Laurent Bouillaut for providing me advice and contacts, and to Olivier Cazier for his continuous support, and the interesting discussions we had both in France and in Japan. This work also concludes two wonderful years spent in Japan and Tokyo in particular. This experience cannot be shared in only a few words; I can only recommend discovering this fabulous country. I wish to thank all the people I have shared this time with, in particular those I have been living with. My stay here would never have been possible without the people who have made this happen, both at Todai and at Ecole des Ponts, in particular Louis Sato. Last but not least, I wish to thank all the people who supported me from France. As always, my most devoted supporters are my family, and my closest friends. My thoughts particularly go to the person who has accepted to let me go and return to Japan even after experiencing the Great Tohoku Earthquake with me in Tokyo, and who continues to support me when I should be the one supporting her. 2 ABSTRACT There is an increasing trend to consider high speed rail as a vertically separated industry in order to introduce more competition and better interoperability. A first consequence is a standardisation of rolling stock designs and the development of cost optimisation and decision support tools to increase the competitiveness of infrastructure management, which both aim at improving high speed rail services. However, high speed rail is an integrated system and this loss of integrated approach is not optimal from an engineering perspective. Engineering choices were historically guided by the local contexts of each country or region, and the many potential markets should have the opportunity to develop a system that is adapted to their own context. For these reasons, a life cycle cost model is proposed to optimise the choice of high speed rail systems under a given context. This simple yet versatile model highlights the trade-offs between train design, infrastructure design, and operating constraints. It reveals that the manufacturers could consider larger capacity train designs. More importantly, it illustrates that a non-integrated approach such as a vertical separation without coordination leads to significant cost increases. Since higher costs would eventually be borne by the users or by the society, the regulatory authorities of the numerous high speed rail projects that are being implemented must not only coordinate the stakeholders but also ensure that their propositions and choices have a positive impact with adequate decision support tools. Keywords: high speed rail; life cycle cost; TGV; Shinkansen; 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENT ...................................................................................................................... 2 ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................................... 3 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................ 10 LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................. 12 ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 13 1. OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND OUTLINE ............................................................................... 14 1.1. Objectives ............................................................................................................................................ 14 1.2. Outline of report ............................................................................................................................... 14 1.3. Scope of research: definitions of high speed rail .................................................................. 15 1.3.1. A matter of speed ..................................................................................................................................... 15 1.3.2. Regional definitions ................................................................................................................................ 17 1.3.3. Operational definition: variability of high speed rail ............................................................... 19 1.3.4. Definition for this study ........................................................................................................................ 19 2. HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SPEED RAIL: A REVIEW ...................... 21 2.1. Japanese Shinkansen: a step forward ....................................................................................... 21 2.1.1. Purpose and design ................................................................................................................................. 21 2.1.2. The Nationwide Shinkansen Railway Development Law ....................................................... 23 2.1.3. Fifty years of high performances ...................................................................................................... 24 2.1.3.1. Evolution of train set technology ............................................................................................. 24 2.1.3.2. Exported Shinkansen .................................................................................................................... 26 2.1.3.3. Strong points of Shinkansen operation ................................................................................. 26 2.2. High speed rail in Europe: from specific needs to a European network ...................... 27 2.2.1. French TGV ................................................................................................................................................. 27 2.2.1.1. Purpose and design ........................................................................................................................ 27 4 2.2.1.2. Evolution of TGV rolling stock ................................................................................................... 28 2.2.1.3. Exportation of TGV technologies .............................................................................................. 30 2.2.2. German ICE................................................................................................................................................. 30 2.2.2.1. Purpose, design and evolution .................................................................................................. 30 2.2.2.2. Eschede disaster .............................................................................................................................. 31 2.2.3. European network and interoperability ........................................................................................ 32 2.2.3.1. Incompatibilities between countries ...................................................................................... 32 2.2.3.2. European transport policy .......................................................................................................... 33 2.2.3.3. New European standards for interoperability ................................................................... 34 2.2.4. Other European high speed trains .................................................................................................... 35 2.2.4.1. Italian Pendolino and tilting trains .......................................................................................... 36 2.2.4.2. Spanish Talgo: variable gauge and articulated structure ............................................... 37 2.3. Other networks and projects........................................................................................................ 37 2.3.1. Existing lines and projects ................................................................................................................... 37 2.3.2. China ............................................................................................................................................................