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Brel Udel 0060D 13679.Pdf AN EXAMINATION OF THE POLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS OF POLAND, ROMANIA, AND BELARUS AFTER THE FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION by Yuliya Brel A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the University of Delaware in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Urban Affairs and Public Policy Spring 2019 © 2019 Yuliya Brel All Rights Reserved AN EXAMINATION OF THE POLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS OF POLAND, ROMANIA, AND BELARUS AFTER THE FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION by Yuliya Brel Approved: __________________________________________________________ Maria P. Aristigueta, D.P.A. Director, Joseph R. Biden, Jr. School of Public Policy and Administration Approved: __________________________________________________________ John Pelesko, Ph.D. Interim Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences Approved: __________________________________________________________ Douglas Doren, Ph.D. Interim Vice Provost for Graduate and Professional Education I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Danilo Yanich, Ph.D. Professor in charge of dissertation I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Minion K.C. Morrison, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Tibor Tóth, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee I certify that I have read this dissertation and that in my opinion it meets the academic and professional standard required by the University as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Signed: __________________________________________________________ Calin Hintea, Ph.D. Member of dissertation committee ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to thank my academic advisor, Dr. Danilo Yanich, for his extensive support and tireless guidance through the process of writing my dissertation, and for believing in me when I would not believe in myself anymore. I also wish to thank the members of my Dissertation Committee, Dr. Morrison, Dr. Tóth, and Dr. Hintea for their invaluable advice and assistance at every stage of my work. Next, I would like to thank my colleagues from the Center for Applied Demography and Survey Research, and CADSR’s director, Professor Edward Ratledge, for creating the friendliest and most comfortable working atmosphere possible, and for all the support and encouragement I was receiving from them for years. I would also like to express my particular gratitude to my parents who never had a single doubt I could do this work, and whose enthusiasm helped me persevere through the challenges of the doctoral program. Finally, I wish to give my very special thanks to my partner, Andrew M. Fournier, for his unconditional love, endless patience, and immense support, and for showing to me what it really means to be strong and determined when pursuing one’s goal and following one’s dream. iv DEDICATION To my wonderful children, Darya and Valery, with love and admiration, and in hopes of forgiveness… v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ ix LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ x ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................. xii Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................... 5 2.1 Democracy ................................................................................................. 5 2.2 Determinants of Democracy ...................................................................... 8 2.3 Transition and Consolidation of Democracy ........................................... 13 2.4 Civil Society ............................................................................................ 16 2.5 Modernization Theory ............................................................................. 25 2.6 Nation-Building ....................................................................................... 28 3 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................... 31 3.1 Variables .................................................................................................. 36 3.2 Wave 3 Surveys Characteristics .............................................................. 43 3.3 Wave 6 Surveys Characteristics .............................................................. 44 4 BRIEF HISTORIES OF POLAND, ROMANIA, AND BELARUS BEFORE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE COMMUNIST REGIMES IN THE COUNTRIES AND UNTIL THE REGIMES’ COLLAPSE IN 1989- 1991 .................................................................................................................. 50 POLAND .......................................................................................................... 51 4.1 A Brief History of Poland........................................................................ 51 4.2 Poland and the European Union .............................................................. 56 ROMANIA ....................................................................................................... 60 4.3 Origins ..................................................................................................... 60 4.4 Between the East and the West ............................................................... 63 vi 4.5 The Choice............................................................................................... 66 4.6 Romania and the European Union ........................................................... 67 BELARUS ........................................................................................................ 71 4.7 The Early History of Belarus ................................................................... 71 4.8 The Language Problem............................................................................ 73 4.9 Religion ................................................................................................... 75 4.10 National Consciousness ........................................................................... 76 4.11 The Uprising of 1863............................................................................... 77 4.12 National Awakening ................................................................................ 78 4.13 First (Unexpected) Independence of Belarus .......................................... 79 4.14 Belarus after World War II; the Reconstruction of the Economy ........... 84 4.15 Second (Reluctant) Independence of Belarus .......................................... 86 4.16 Conclusion ............................................................................................... 88 5 CIVIL SOCIETY IN POLAND, ROMANIA, AND BELARUS UNDER THE COMMUNIST REGIMES AND IN THE POST-COMMUNIST PERIOD BETWEEN 1989-1991 AND 2017................................................... 91 5.1 Civil Society in Poland ............................................................................ 95 5.2 Civil Society in Romania....................................................................... 101 5.3 Civil Society in Belarus ......................................................................... 106 5.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 111 6 FINDINGS: DETERMINANATS OF DEMOCRACY ................................. 114 6.1 Economic Indicators .............................................................................. 114 6.2 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 130 6.3 Social Indicators .................................................................................... 130 6.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 141 6.5 Political Indicators ................................................................................. 142 6.6 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 152 6.7 People’s Attitudes to Democracy .......................................................... 152 6.8 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 166 6.9 Democracy Score ................................................................................... 167 6.10 Conclusion ............................................................................................. 168 7 ANALYSIS: “ASSENT” AND “CONSENT” TO DEMOCRACY IN POLAND, ROMANIA, AND BELARUS AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE COMMUNIST REGIMES IN 1989-1991 AND UNTIL 2017 ............. 171 7.1 Introduction ..........................................................................................
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