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The Punjab Story

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The Punjab Story IPP’s Fifth Annual Report 2012 The State of the Economy: The Punjab Story Institute of Public Policy Beaconhouse National University Copyright© by Institute of Public Policy Beaconhouse National University No part of this report may be published without permission Published by Institute of Public Policy Beaconhouse National University Cover Photograph: Saleem R. Khan Printed by Cross Media [email protected] | www.crossmedia9.com +92 (42) 3661 0240 | +92 (333) 450 1684 III Institute of Public Policy Beaconhouse National University nstitutional backing is absolutely essential to policy makers of today, to guide their actions in Ipromoting development and peace. These are times of change and challenge. There is a need for policy makers to base their policies on sound analytical work. Therefore, the Beaconhouse National University established the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) as an independent, private sector think tank for research on economic, social, political and foreign policy issues. IPP's mission is to "work in the areas of importance for improving the welfare of the citizenry. Its work will focus in particular on public policies in areas of economics, social and political development, as well as on foreign policy". Key activities of the Institute include: independent and objective analysis of the economy; strategic analysis of the concepts and doctrines in selected areas of public policy; research in the areas that are important for regional cooperation; seminars and workshops to bring together policy makers, experts and other members; funded research projects and dissemination of research findings with the view to enhance public awareness and contribute to debate on issues of public policy. The IPP Executive Council consists of eminent personalities devoted to improvement of public policy in Pakistan. The members are: Mr. Shahid Javed Burki Chairman Dr. Hafiz Ahmed Pasha Vice-Chairman Dr. Parvez Hasan Executive Member General (R) Jehangir Karamat Member Mr. Shahid Hamid Member Dr. Akmal Hussain Member Dr. Kamal Mannoo Member Mr. Tasneem Noorani Member Mrs. Nasreen Kasuri Ex-officio Member, Chairperson, BNUF Mr. Sartaj Aziz Ex-officio Member, Vice Chancellor, BNU Dr. Aisha Ghaus-Pasha is the Director of the Institute. The State of the Economy: The Punjab Story V PREFACE l and complex challenges with resolve, his is the Fifth Annual Report of the IPP. Its release coincides with the final year of the Tdemocratically elected government which took over after the general elections held in March 2008. The Report would therefore be of interest, not only to the present policy makers but also to all other political parties which are formulating their respective political strategies and manifestos in preparation for the next general elections due in early 2013. In the face of all the predictions about doom and gloom, it is a matter of some satisfaction that the democratic process is on track. Despite poor governance record of the elected government and mounting economic difficulties, no political party has been advocating any non democratic options. In fact, all political parties inside and outside the Parliament, participated actively in the civil society movement which restored the superior Judiciary in March 2009 and then in the passage of the 18th Amendment in April 2010 which, as explained in IPP's Fourth Annual Report, not only restored the balance of power between the President and Parliament but also strengthened the Federation by enhancing the degree of provincial autonomy. The emergence of a vibrant civil society and a vigilant media supported by a very large network of the private T.V. channels has also transformed the entire political landscape of the country and in the process improved the prospects for evolving a strong democratic order, free from external pressures and continuing oversight of an over bearing Establishment. But the journey towards a strong and self sustaining democratic order is not going to be easy. It will face many formidable challenges including the ongoing tussle between the higher Judiciary and the Executive, as the latter adjusts to the working of an independent Judiciary and also between the Executive and the Parliament, as the latter takes up its new responsibilities to provide guidance on foreign and economic policies. Superimposed on these challenges will be the growing geo-political turmoil, as the United States (US) begins its planned withdrawal from Afghanistan and militant extremism intensifies its onslaught to gain political and physical space in Pakistan. But the greatest challenge for democracy in the coming years will be to provide good governance and deal with problems like inflation, unemployment, poverty and load shedding. These subjects are the focus of the analysis and research findings presented in this Report. The fundamental cause of the serious economic crisis facing the country is virtual stagnation in the real economy for several years. With an average growth of only 2.5 percent in these four The State of the Economy: The Punjab Story VI years every other indicator has been on the decline. Even the 2.4 percent growth rate in 2010- 11 was largely due to a 4.1 percent growth in services sector, including 13 percent growth in public administration and defence, attributable mainly to the 50 percent increase in salaries to civil servants in June 2010. The growth in the real sectors of the economy namely industry and agriculture was nominal. The stagnation in the economy is partly the result of a declining Investment _ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio and partly due to the unprecedented energy crisis, which has already led to the closure of thousands of factories and large-scale unemployment of workers of these factories. But large-scale investment supported by domestic public and private savings will require a visible revival of confidence in the future of the economy, strong institutions, the rule of law and good governance. As in previous Annual Reports, this year's special topic is Punjab with an in-depth analysis of economic growth in Punjab as compared to the rest of Pakistan, its social sector development and regional disparities among districts and divisions in Punjab. The research for the special chapters on Punjab was undertaken by several M.Phil students of the Economics Department of the Beaconhouse National University under the supervision of Dr. Hafiz Pasha. I hope the findings and conclusions presented in the Report will be useful for the provincial officials and other stakeholders as they prepare to undertake enhanced development responsibilities under the 18th Amendment. We plan to undertake similar research for other provinces in the future Annual Reports of the Institute of Public Policy. Sartaj Aziz Vice Chancellor Beaconhouse National University The Institute of Public Policy is grateful to the Asia Foundation for its financial support for the preparation, publication and dissemination of this Report. The State of the Economy: The Punjab Story VII FOREWORD he IPP is making available its Fifth Annual Report at a difficult moment in Pakistan's history. TPakistan has been variously called a fragile state, a country facing an existential threat, and the world's most dangerous place. Its standing in various measures of social and economic development continues to slide. In the domestic political discourse, the negatives about the country's situation are emphasised more than the positives. In other words, it would be hard for policy analysts to think positively about the country's current position and its future prospects. That withstanding we see some glimmer of hope. This is for at least three reasons. First, Pakistan is successfully negotiating its way through a difficult period of transition. It is moving from a political system dominated by the Military towards the one which will have the citizenry represented by the people chosen in free and fair elections. While moving in that direction, it is finding a way to introduce a number of checks and balances on the exercise of the Executive Authority. In this context the roles of the Judiciary, the civil society and the media will become important. Second, the process of devolution made possible by the 18th amendment to the Cconstitution and supported by the 7th Award of the National Finance Commission (NFC) has begun to move the centre of gravity of economic policy making from the federal to the provincial levels. Thus empowered, the provinces should be able to manage to a considerable extent their own affairs. In order to do that effectively, they will need to understand well their own circumstances, plan to overcome their weaknesses and augment the financing they receive from the federal government by raising their own resources. This is the reason why we have made the "Punjab Story" the focus of this Report. We will have more provincial stories to tell in our future Annual Reports. Third, we are witness to a historic move _ the opening to India in economic affairs. After more than six decades of turning their backs towards each other, Pakistan and India may be able to work together in a number of areas, in particular in trade. This will have enormously positive consequences for Pakistan and would set right a number of distortions that occurred in the structure of our economy because of the uneasy relations with our neighbor. The IPP is engaged in an important study to analyze the various aspects of this important development. We will report on our findings in the 2013 Annual Report. The State of the Economy: The Punjab Story VIII As before, the Report was written by a group of people who are committed to working in the hope of seeing a better future for Pakistan. That said, I would be failing in my role as the Chairman of the Institute if I do not recognise the enormous amount of work _ both in terms of making contributions to the Report's substance as well as supervising the herculean labor that required to get it into publication _ by the Director of IPP, Dr.
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