ANNUAL REPORT 2014 CENTRE FOR APPLIED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Crawford School of Public Policy ANU College of Asia & the Pacific Message from the Director
2014 was another outstanding year for CAMA. Professor Reneé Fry-McKibbin who became CAMA Director in 2012, moved to a more senior role at ANU. I returned as Director in November 2014 to continue the important plans put in place during Reneé’s leadership. All participants in CAMA owe a great debt to the time and effort that Reneé contributed to CAMA. Reneé will continue as a member of the Management Committee and the co-director of two CAMA programs. CAMA relies on leadership and contributions at many levels. In particular, the Management Committee of Ippei Fujiwara, Creina Day and Timo Henckel supported by the CAMA Administrator, Rossana Bastos Pinto and each of the Program Directors have done a great job in maintaining the goals of CAMA throughout 2014. During 2014, 78 working papers were published. CAMA Research Associates published outstanding papers in the world’s leading economics and finance journals. A total of 88 papers were published in peer reviewed journals in 2014. CAMA Research Associates also actively participated in conference and workshops around the world and had important impact on major policy debates in many countries. CAMA was involved in 22 conferences, workshops and seminars in 2014. The number of CAMA Research Associates rose from 148 in 2013 to 164 in 2014. CAMA is a network of scholars. The success of CAMA draws directly on the active participation of researchers around the world who believe in excellence in research and public policy and contributing to public goods. I would like to thank everyone in CAMA for their contributions and their support.
Warwick McKibbin Director, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Contents
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis – an overview ...... 1
Research programs ...... 2
Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity ...... 2
Climate Change and Energy ...... 3
Commodities and the Macroeconomy...... 4
Economic Growth and Development...... 4
Finance and the Macroeconomy ...... 5
Globalisation and Trade ...... 6
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks ...... 6
Macroeconomic Theory ...... 7
Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues ...... 7
Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics ...... 9
Multi-Country Models and Methods ...... 9
Open Economy Macroeconomics ...... 10
CAMA RBA Shadow Board ...... 10
Current members ...... 11
Past members ...... 16
Publications ...... 16
Working papers ...... 17
Newsletters ...... 21
Other publications ...... 21
Media ...... 27
Events ...... 28
Workshops and conferences ...... 28
Seminars ...... 30
Staff and Associates ...... 37
Director ...... 37
Deputy Director ...... 38
Management committee ...... 38 Administrator ...... 39
PhD students ...... 39
Advisory Board ...... 39
Program Directors ...... 41
Doctoral Student Associates ...... 42
Research Associates ...... 42
Visitors ...... 52
Funding ...... 54
CAMA by numbers ...... 55
Contact ...... 56
Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis – an overview
The Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) is located in Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. It was established in 2003 to bring together economists working on applied macroeconomic and financial market issues throughout Australia and across the globe. CAMA’s objectives are to advance research and post-graduate training in applied macroeconomic and financial issues. CAMA was founded by Professor Warwick McKibbin who is also the current director. The deputy director is Professor Ippei Fujiwara. Former directors include Professor Renée Fry- McKibbin and Professor Shaun Vahey and deputy directors include Professor Heather Anderson, Professor Mardi Dungey and Professor Renée Fry-McKibbin.
The Australian National University | 1 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Research programs
The research activities of the centre are built around a series of research programs headed by a program director (or directors). The program director is responsible for organising research in the area of the program. Proposals for new programs are welcome and will be considered by the Executive Committee. Proposals should be directed to the CAMA director. It is envisaged that programs will be active for two years after which they are reviewed.
Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity Behavioural Macroeconomics seeks to refine our understanding of th e discipline by accounting for relevant features of human behaviour that are absent in the standard economics framework. Instead of assuming a hyper-rational representative agent, the basis for analysis are empirically well-documented psychological and sociological factors such as cognitive bias, fairness concerns, herding, and social status. Acknowledging the growing econometric and experimental evidence that human behaviour often fails the predictions of the rational expectations, full-information paradigm, this research program provides an umbrella for all research dedicated to melding the insights from behavioural economics and psychology with modern macroeconomics in a sound and rigorous way. An integral part of this research agenda is the problem of aggregation and the presence of agent heterogeneity, which considers the economy as an adaptive nonlinear network that generates complex, emergent behaviour. Salient features of this approach include dispersed interaction of agents, multiple levels of organisation and interaction, bounded rationality, continual adaptation of agents’ behaviours, actions and strategies, deep, unquantifiable uncertainty and persistent out-of- equilibrium dynamics. The emphasis is both on theoretical and empirical models:
• Theoretical behavioural models will analyse the positive and normative macroeconomic implications of behavioural phenomena including, for example, prospect theory, hyperbolic discounting, adaptive learning, bounded rationality, habit and status concerns, money illusion, and endowment effects. Models of complexity analyse the properties of emergent behaviour, with a large emphasis on solution and simulation methods, including combinatorial mathematics, statistical
The Australian National University | 2 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis mechanics and nonlinear computational algorithms. Many of these fall under the heading of agent-based models. • Empirical models will use behavioural theory and complexity models to improve our statistical understanding and forecasting abilities of the macroeconomy and to analyse policy regimes and institutional features. These models are not only supposed to refine our understanding of individual choice but also help us understand and design better economic institutions and enhance overall welfare analysis. The program seeks to foster a strong and growing network of researchers enthusiastic about behavioural macroeconomics and complexity. Activities will include workshops and conferences, collaboration with other CAMA research programs, and graduate courses and seminars on this topic.
Climate Change and Energy Rapid global economic growth, particularly in China and India, has important implications for global energy use as well as causing a rapid rise in greenhouse gas emissions with implications for climate change. This program focuses on the importance of energy use and climate change as well as the associated policy responses on the macro-economy. This program focuses on:
• methodologies for projecting long term energy use and carbon dioxide emissions • the relationship between macroeconomic performance and energy use • the role of relative prices in energy demand and macroeconomic outcomes • the macroeconomic consequences of alternative energy polices • the macroeconomic consequences of alternative climate change strategies • the design and impact of alternative emission permit trading systems. Collaborative work in this project is linked to the ANU Climate Change Institute and ANU Energy Change Institute. The Climate Change and Energy program of CAMA is included in the Think Tank Map
The Australian National University | 3 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Commodities and the Macroeconomy The implications of demand for resources by emerging market econo mies and understanding the special features of commodity economies are currently issues for policymakers and investors. Emerging markets in particular are an important driver of the most recent commodity price cycle. This program seeks to understand commodity cycles and their financial market and macroeconomic effects, as well as the interactions between the three from both an emerging and developed country perspective. The program focuses on:
• understanding trends and cycles in commodity markets • currency, equity and commodity market linkages • global business cycle linkages and the role of emerging markets • oil price shocks and their transmission through the macroeconomy • food price shocks and their pass through to the macroeconomy and poverty implications • policy responses to relative price movements • the macroeconomics of sovereign wealth funds.
Economic Growth and Development The program focuses on the following key areas:
• Should short-run macroeconomic models for developing countries be different from the received doctrine? Evaluation, critique and extensions of alternative models such as those due to structuralists and to IMF-type policy evaluations. Are there eclectic short-run macroeconomic models better suited for developing countries? Empirical evaluation of the performance of alternative short-run macroeconomic models. • The political economy of the nexus between fiscal and monetary policy in developing countries. The interaction between a weak banking system, overly controlled central bank, excessive current government spending and poor tax design and administration. Early warning systems on potential crisis. The role of the exchange rate regime. • The determinants of economic growth and developing countries. Can we identify policies that would enhance growth prospects for developing countries? What
The Australian National University | 4 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis evidence relevant to developing countries does the experience of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in regard to long-term growth and medium-term fluctuation provide? • The macroeconomics of reconstruction after war and other disasters. Anticipating and dealing with the economic consequence of ‘hot spots’ - mass migration in response to war, environmental disasters and the like.
Finance and the Macroeconomy Financial market developments impact directly and indirectly on real economy outcomes, particularly in the short term, and developments in the macroeconomy affect financial markets, systems and institutions. This program brings together work on financial interactions with an assessment of the impact of markets and institutions on the economy and implications for policy. It includes assessment of broader trends in the macroeconomy and finance. Areas of investigation include:
• the role of international financial markets in transmitting shocks between economies, including during periods of financial stress • regional and global financial cooperation and architecture, with a particular focus on East Asia • financial markets, institutions and systems, including the integration of financial markets, electronic finance, harmonisation of financial systems and the nexus between finance and economic growth and development • policy dialogue and the interaction between policy decisions, such as fiscal and monetary policy and structural policies, and financial development, including a focus on East Asia.
The Australian National University | 5 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Globalisation and Trade The linkages between countries are influenced by their macroeconomic policies. These policies can be conducted so as to reduce risks and increase the likelihood of good outcomes. The objective of this program is to undertake research into design of policies in three areas. The first of these is the overall framework of macroeconomic policy, including the extent to which policy can influence exchange rates in a world of a high degree of capital mobility, and the integration of fiscal and monetary policy in the management of the economy. The second is the extent to which the financial system can be regulated so as to minimise the risk of currency and financial crises, and to lessen the costs of such crises as occur. The third is the way in which the liberalisation of international trade can be managed so as to avoid the growth of preferential discrimination between countries, and the growth of discriminatory trading blocs. Research in this program will also be conducted into the connection between these areas: the extent to which trade liberalisation strategies demand a change to exchange rate strategies, and the extent to which the need to minimise the risks of financial crises has implications for exchange rate strategies.
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks Considerable progress has been made over the past twenty years in developing robust monetary and fiscal policy frameworks. For many countries these have been aimed at maintaining low and stable inflation over the medium term, and public debt sustainability over the medium to long term. Associated implications and areas of importance have been less well developed. This program will bring together analytical and policy researchers interested in evaluating and advancing work in areas such as:
• the implications of medium term fiscal and monetary policy frameworks for: the volatilities of output, interest rates and exchange rates; short run stabilisation policies; intergenerational balance; financial stability; and external stability • the role of governance procedures and associated institutional frameworks, in sustaining the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, including the
The Australian National University | 6 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis relative roles for policy coordination and operational independence, and the role of enforcement rules in fiscal policy frameworks • macroeconomic policy frameworks for sustainable growth and employment and • appropriate policy frameworks for common currency regimes.
Macroeconomic Theory This program brings together various research agendas in the area of theoretical macroeconomics. The emphasis is on:
• the construction of macroeconomic models that have well-specific decision- theoretic foundations and equilibrium concepts and/or • the use of such models to understand observed economic phenomena, analyse policy regimes and other institutional features. Research in this area includes equilibrium business cycle theories, growth theory, recursive policy games, recursive contract theory, dynamic public finance, international macroeconomics, expectations modelling and learning, sunspots and multiple equilibria in general equilibrium, search theoretic foundations of labor markets and monetary theory, and dynamic political economics. The program’s activities include:
• the annual Australasian Workshop in Macroeconomic Dynamics (WMD) • macroeconomics study group • occasional advanced workshop/courses featuring experts in the relevant field.
Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues This program covers a range of topics focusing on longer run issues in macroeconomics such as: (a) Macroeconomics and Health The program focuses on macroeconomic approaches to measuring the economic burden of infectious diseases such as SARS, Avian Flu, Influenza, HIV/AIDS etc. It is becoming
The Australian National University | 7 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis increasingly evident that modern epidemics create global economic shocks that by far exceed direct and indirect costs of treatment. The program will combine Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and epidemiological modelling to study both short-and-long-run effects of the disease outbreak. Epidemiological models of disease dynamics will take into account an increased likelihood of contact with infected individuals from other areas as a result of trade in goods and services and of an increased factor mobility. Key focus areas are:
• a choice of an appropriate epidemiological model for a particular type of infectious disease • incorporation of public health and spatial data into CGE framework • modelling sectoral impacts from a particular disease • scenario analysis using probabilistic assumptions about the likely effects of the disease and • recommendations on optimal response and intervention measures based on model implications. (b) Macroeconomics and Aging Demographic change has important impacts on the macroeconomy through changes in labour supply, human wealth accumulation, consumption and saving decisions, asset accumulation, investment demand and adjustment of asset prices. There are also important impacts on fiscal positions and the balance of payments. The objective of this program is to explore the macroeconomic implications of an aging society within a variety of modelling frameworks. (c) Macroeconomics and the Environment Environmental change has potentially significant macroeconomic impacts both directly through the links between the environment and economics activity and indirectly through the impact on the macroeconomy of policies aimed at environmental outcomes such as climate change policy. This sub program will explore the links between changes in the environment and macroeconomics outcomes.
The Australian National University | 8 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics This program focuses on the role of model uncertainty in empirical macroeconomics. This literature treats the ‘true’ model as an unobservable - an admission that has implications for many areas of macroeconomic analysis and has generated two distinct research sub- programs. One represents a renewed interest in model evaluation, comparison, selection and combinations when model misspecification is explicitly recognised. A second sub-program is based on accounting for model uncertainty explicitly in constructing predictive densities for objects of economic interest, conducting statistical inference and evaluating policies.
Multi-Country Models and Methods Countries are linked through trade flows and asset markets. The modelling of these interactions has been undertaken in large scale model such as: computable general equilibrium models (for trade); large scale macro-econometric models (aggregated trade and capital flows); and intertemporal general equilibrium models (trade detail and asset flows). There is also an emerging literature of smaller theoretical simulation models particularly of real business cycle and new Keynesian theories which attempt to understand global interdependence better. This program will bring together researchers interested in the linkages between countries and how these linkages impact on our understanding of economic outcomes in small open and large open economies.
The Australian National University | 9 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Open Economy Macroeconomics The objective of the Open Economy Macroeconomics (OEM) Program is to further the development and testing of optimization-based OEM frameworks. The main focuses of interest of the program are:
• international transmission mechanisms in OEM frameworks • international relative prices and the international transmission of shocks • cooperation and monetary and fiscal stabilization policies in OEM frameworks.
CAMA RBA Shadow Board
On the first Tuesday of every month (except in January) the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets to decide on a target for the cash rate. This decision is highly significant for the wider economy and is therefore closely monitored by the financial markets. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board consists of nine voting members and one non-voting chair, all distinguished macroeconomists, who offer their own policy recommendations one day before the official RBA decision. A novel feature of the CAMA RBA Shadow Board is the requirement that members offer their policy recommendations probabilistically. When a central bank sets the preferred target cash rate, the decision necessarily constitutes a compromise, a careful balancing and weighting of all salient upside and downside risks. The imprecision stems from the uncertainties associated with real-time measurements, latent variables, model type, model parameters and the inherently unpredictable nature of the macroeconomy. Whatever rate the central bank sets, there is a considerable probability that a different rate would be more appropriate. Nevertheless, most central banks provide little quantifiable information on the uncertainty confronting policymakers. Conventional central bank communication of interest rate setting does not formalise risk considerations and the probability of extreme events. The probability that the interest rate should be substantially different from the ‘most preferred’ target rate receives little attention. Central banks currently record formally neither the uncertainty experienced by individual board members, nor by the board as a whole.
The Australian National University | 10 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Each member of the CAMA RBA Shadow Board records the uncertainty by giving probabilistic assessments of the appropriate (target) interest rate for each round. The higher the percentage attached to a given interest rate, the more confident the member is that this rate is the appropriate target. The aim of the CAMA RBA Shadow Board is to:
• foster a lively and informed debate in the community about each interest rate decision and about macroeconomics more generally • show how individual policymakers can quantify the uncertainty surrounding a preferred target cash rate and how these uncertainties may be aggregated to provide a probabilistic collective view • generate data on probabilistic monetary policy decision-making that may be used in future research. It is important to note that this project is not aimed at predicting RBA Board behaviour. In common with shadowing exercises in other countries (e.g. the US Shadow Open Market Committee), this is a normative exercise in stating the most suitable interest rate for current and expected economic conditions, not forecasting what the RBA will actually do. The CAMA RBA Shadow Board (initially going by the name of PRO-POL) was conceived in August 2011 by Dr Timo Henckel, Professor Shaun Vahey, and Dr Elizabeth Wakerly, all of CAMA. Until June 2013 the logistics were handled by Mr Damien Hughes and Dr Elizabeth Wakerly.
Current members
Paul Bloxham Paul Bloxham is Chief Economist for HSBC in Australia and New Zealand. Prior to joining HSBC, Paul Bloxham was an economist within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Economic Analysis Department where he headed up the overseas economies and financial conditions sections, as well as working on domestic forecasting and prices. Bloxham has published a number of papers, including on household finances, asset prices and monetary policy. He is also a regular commentator on local and international business television and a frequent contributor of opinion editorials to Australian newspapers. He holds a Master degree in public financial policy from the London School of Economics.
The Australian National University | 11 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Mark Crosby Mark Crosby is Dean of the Global Master of Business Administration (GMBA) and interim Dean of the Global Bachelors of Business Administration (GBBA) effective October 17, 2011, at Melbourne Business School. Dr Crosby has held academic appointments at the University of Toronto, the University of New South Wales, and the University of Melbourne, where he was most recently the Associate Dean (International) at the Melbourne Business School. Dr Crosby has co-authored a widely- used textbook on macroeconomics, and publishes regularly in academic journals, contributes articles to the media, and has written a number of book chapters. Besides his university activities, Dr Crosby has worked or consulted widely for government and private enterprises including the World Bank, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the South African Treasury, the Center for Strategic and Policy Studies in Brunei, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and BHP Billiton. Most recently he completed a project on South Africa’s current account deficit, and a project on diversifying Brunei’s economy. He is a frequent guest on ABC TV and writes regularly for Australian newspapers.
Mardi Dungey Mardi Dungey is Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Tasmania, a Senior Research Associate at the Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy at the University of Cambridge and Adjunct Professor at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Policy at The Australian National University. Mardi moved to the University of Tasmania in October 2008, from a position as the Deputy Director of the Centre for Financial Analysis and Policy at the University of Cambridge where she had been since early 2005. Prior to that, she held academic positions at The Australian National University and La Trobe University. She has also worked at Econtech Consulting Group and the Reserve Bank of Australia, and held visiting positions at the IMF, University of Cambridge, Princeton University, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Australian and New Zealand Treasuries. She speaks regularly to international forums on her research and holds a number of competitive grants. Mardi is currently a co-editor of the Economic Record and an Associate Editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics, the Journal of Asian Economics, and the Journal of Banking and Finance.
The Australian National University | 12 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Bob Gregory Professor Gregory has held positions at the University of Melbourne, London School of Economics, The Australian National University, Industries Assistance Commission, Northwestern University, and visiting positions at Harvard University, the University of Chicago and University College London. He has been closely involved in the analysis and development of Australian economic policy; a member of the Board of Management at the Australian Institute of Family Studies, principal consultant in a series of government Aged Care Reviews, member of the committee that recommended the introduction of student income contingent loans, member of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Sciences and Technology Council. Professor Gregory has been awarded the Order of Australia Medal and has an honorary doctorate from the University of Melbourne.
Timo Henckel Timo Henckel (non-voting chair) is a Lecturer in the Research School of Economics at ANU College of Business and Economics. He is also director of CAMA’s Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity research program. He was previously an adjunct lecturer in Crawford School of The Australian National University. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics where he has also briefly taught. His research interests are in monetary economics, international macroeconomics, and behavioural macroeconomics.
Guay Lim Guay Lim is a Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research and an Adjunct Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Melbourne. Her research interests are in quantitative macroeconomics and macro-econometrics and her papers have been published in major international journals. She has held visiting research positions at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Osaka University, Brown University, Georgetown University and Fordham University. Guay is also the head of the Macroeconomics Unit at the Melbourne Institute and they publish indicators of activity about the Australian economy on a regular basis.
The Australian National University | 13 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Warwick McKibbin Professor Warwick McKibbin has a Chair in Public Policy and is Director of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) in Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University (ANU). He is also an ANU Public Policy Fellow; a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences; a Distinguished Fellow of the Asia and Pacific Policy Society; a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C (where he is co-Director of the Climate and Energy Economics Project) and President of McKibbin Software Group Inc. Professor McKibbin was foundation Director of the ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and foundation Director of the ANU Research School of Economics. He was also a Professorial Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy for a decade from 2003 where he was involved in its design and development. Professor McKibbin served for a decade on the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (the Australian equivalent of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve) until July 2011. He has also served as a member of the Australian Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, and on the Australian Prime Minister’s Taskforce on Uranium Mining Processing and Nuclear Energy in Australia.
James Morley James Morley is a Professor of Economics at the University of New South Wales. He received his PhD from the University of Washington in 1999. Before moving to Australia in 2010, he was a faculty member at Washington University in St. Louis (1999-2010) and a research fellow at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004-2010). He has also held visiting positions at the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis and has worked regularly with the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers. He is the current President of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics and is a founding member of the Shadow RBA Board. His research focuses on time-series applications in macroeconomics, finance, and international finance. He has written on topics such as trend/cycle decomposition for macroeconomic data, the long-run consequences of recessions, stock market volatility and return predictability, and the adjustment of exchange rates to purchasing power parity. His articles have appeared in top academic journals, including the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics.
The Australian National University | 14 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
John Romalis John Romalis studies international economics and macroeconomics. Romalis has published well-known papers on the determinants of international trade, and on the economic effects of tax and trade policy in journals such as the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, and the Journal of the European Economic Association. Romalis has three main current lines of research. He studies the trade and welfare implications of tariff reductions since the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. A second line of research studies the causes of the collapse of international trade during the recent global recession. Finally, Romalis studies how firms engaged in international competition determine the quality and price of their products. After completing degrees in economics and in law, Romalis worked negotiating contracts governing swaps and other derivatives for a commercial bank, and then moved to the economics research department in Australia’s central bank. After completing his PhD in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he joined the University of Chicago Booth faculty in 2001. John Romalis has also served as a Resident Scholar for the International Monetary Fund, has been a Faculty Research Fellow for the National Bureau of Economic Research, and had appointments at Princeton University and The Australian National University. In 2013 John Romalis moved to The University of Sydney where he was appointed the Sir Hermann Black Chair of Economics.
Jeffrey Sheen Jeffrey Sheen is a Professor of Economics at Macquarie University. He has been on the faculty of the Universities of Manchester, Essex and Sydney, and has had a visiting appointment at the Reserve Bank of Australia. He has published his research in major international journals, and his interests span international economics, macroeconomics, labour and international finance. He obtained his PhD at the London School of Economics.
The Australian National University | 15 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Past members
Saul Eslake August 2011-June 2014 Saul Eslake has been Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Australia since December 2011. He was previously a Program Director with the Grattan Institute (a non-aligned think tank affiliated with Melbourne University) and, between 1995 and 2009, Chief Economist at ANZ Bank. He is also a non-executive director of Hydro Tasmania, and a member of the National Housing Supply Council and the Australian Statistics Advisory Council.
Mark Thirlwell August 2011-September 2013 Mark Thirlwell is Director of International Economy Program and Fellow of G20 Studies Centre. Mark has been tracking global economic trends since he joined the Bank of England’s International Divisions in 1990 where he worked as part of the Whitehall Economists Subgroup, coordinating the forecasting of major emerging markets across the Bank, Treasury, the FCO and other stakeholders. Mark subsequently joined J P Morgan as a Vice President in Economic Research with responsibility for Central Europe. Before joining Lowy, he served as Senior Economist at Australia’s Export Finance and Insurance Corporation, working on sovereign risk with a particular focus on East Asia.
Publications
The CAMA working paper series covers a broad range of topics in one of the twelve areas covered by the CAMA research programs.The working papers are available online and through RePec (Research Papers in Economics) and SSRN (Social Science Research Network.
The Australian National University | 16 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Working papers
Paper Title Authors Downloads no. 78/2014 Understanding the deviations of the Taylor rule: a new Hudson KB 88
methodology with an application to Australia Vespignani JL 77/2014 Noisy information, distance and law of one price Crucini MJ 99
dynamics across US cities Shintani M Tsuruga T 76/2014 Trends and cycles in small open economies: making the Chen K 108
case for a general equilibrium approach Crucini MJ 75/2014 Geographic barriers to commodity price integration: Crucini MJ 100
evidence from US cities and Swedish towns, 1732 - 1860 Smith GW
74/2014 Product quality and intra-industry trade Ito T 134 Okubo T
73/2014 Exchange rates, expected returns and risk: UIP unbound Munro A 122
72/2014 Bringing financial stability into monetary policy Leeper EM 181 Nason JM 71/2014 The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return Kang W 180
and volatility relationship Ratti RA Yoon KH 70/2014 Exchange rates dynamics with long-run risk and recursive Kollmann R 187
preferences 69/2014 OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global Ratti RA 217
economy Vespignani JL
68/2014 Modelling inflation volatility Eisenstat E 207 Strachan RW 67/2014 A comparison of the wage structure between the public Morikawa M 233
and private sectors in Japan 66/2014 Real exchange rates and sectoral productivity in the Berka M 238
Eurozone Devereux MB Engel C 65/2014 Offsets to compulsory superannuation: do people Shanker A 267
consciously choose their level of retirement saving? Vidler S 64/2014 Does inflation targeting outperform alternative policies Fry-McKibbin R 266
during global downturns? Wang C 63/2014 Pareto improvements under matching mechanisms in a Liu W 249
public good economy 62/2014 The elephant in the ground: managing oil and sovereign Bremer TVD 255
wealth Ploeg FVD Wills S 61/2014 Working less and bargain hunting more: macro Sudo N 278
implications of sales during Japan's lost decades Ueda K Watanabe K Watanabe T
The Australian National University | 17 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
60/2014 Income inequality and macroeconomic instability: a Carvalho L 298 stock-flow consistent approach with heterogeneous Di Guilmi C
agents 59/2014 Straightforward approximate stochastic equilibria for Johnston MK 323
nonlinear rational expectations models King RG Lie D 58/2014 Factors behind foreign currency holding by household in Siregar RY 375
Cambodia Chan N 57/2014 Mismatch shocks and unemployment during the great Furlanetto F 344
recession Groshenny N 56/2014 Reciprocal brokered deposits, bank risk, and recent Li G 412
deposit insurance policy Shaffer S 55/2014 Evaluating forecasts of a vector of variables: a German Müller-Dröge HC 413
forecasting competition Sinclair TM Stekler HO 54/2014 Disaggregating electricity generation technologies in CGE Arora V 434
models Cai Y
53/2014 How monetary policy is made: two Canadian tales Siklos PL 419 Neuenkirch M
52/2014 An estimated DSGE model with a deflation steady state Hirose Y 423 51/2014 Issues in comparing stochastic volatility models using the Chan JCC 433
deviance information criterion Grant AL 50/2014 Asymmetry in boom-bust shocks: Australian performance Tyers R 470
with oligopoly
49/2014 The economic consequences of delay in US climate policy McKibbin WJ 467 Morris AC Wilcoxen PJ 48/2014 Innovation in the service sector and the role of patents Morikawa M 455
and trade secrets 47/2014 What types of company have female and foreign Morikawa M 447
directors? 46/2014 Structural VARs, deterministic and stochastic trends: Wiriyawit V 507
does detrending matter? Wong B 45/2014 Inflation expectations and how it explains the inflationary Wong B 513 impact of oil price shocks: evidence from the Michigan
survey 44/2014 Asymmetric increasing trends in dependence in Okimoto T 518
international equity markets 43/2014 Analysing business and financial cycles using multi-level Breitung J 515
factor models Eickmeier S 42/2014 Asset markets and monetary policy shocks at the zero Claus E 520
lower bound Claus I Krippner L
41/2014 Oil prices and the economy: a global perspective Ratti RA 546 Vespignani JL
The Australian National University | 18 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
40/2014 International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in in’t Veld J 541
Spain Kollmann R Pataracchia B Ratto M Roeger W
39/2014 Output composition of the monetary policy transmission Phan T 551
mechanism: is Australia different?
38/2014 Extremal dependence and contagion Fry-McKibbin R 558 Hsiao CYL
37/2014 Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries Wills S 546
36/2014 Tax competition with heterogeneous firms Baldwin RE 544 Okubo T 35/2014 What drives the German current account? And how does Kollmann R 554
it affect other EU member states? Ratto M Roeger W Veld J Vogel L
34/2014 Cointegrated periodically collapsing bubbles in the Maldonado WL 578
exchange rate of 'BRICS' countries Tourinho OAF Abreu JABM 33/2014 The impact of oil price shocks on U.S. bond market Kang W 625
returns Ratti RA Yoon KH
32/2014 Policy uncertainty in China, oil shocks and stock returns Kang W 597 Ratti RA 31/2014 Trade misinvoicing and macroeconomic outcomes in Jha R 590
India Nguyen TD
30/2014 Asian fragmentation in the global financial crisis Okubo T 604 Kimura F Teshima N 29/2014 Analysing the short run effects of China’s economic Tyers R 632
reform agenda
28/2014 Substitutability and the cost of climate mitigation policy Lu Y 630 Stern D
27/2014 Wage determination and imperfect competition Booth A 667 26/2014 The safer, the riskier: a model of financial instability and Kato R 653
bank leverage Tsuruga T 25/2014 Prudential capital controls or bailouts? The impact of Katagiri M 656
different collateral constraint assumptions Kato R Tsuruga T
24/2014 Generalised density forecast combinations Fawcett N 656 Kapetanios G Mitchell J Price S
The Australian National University | 19 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
23/2014 Stochastic model specification search for time-varying Eisenstat E 663
parameter VARs Chan JCC Strachan RW
22/2014 US natural gas exports and their global impacts Arora V 683 Cai Y
21/2014 Modelling inflation volatility Eisenstat E 670 Strachan RW 20/2014 Reconstructing the savings glut: the global implications of Arora V 681
Asian excess saving Tyers R Zhang Y 19/2014 The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Knop SJ 700
Australia Vespignani JL 18/2014 Foreign reserve accumulation and the mercantilist Carvalho P 706
motive hypothesis Fry-McKibbin RA 17/2014 Impacts of a capacity advantaged bidder in sequential Coatney KT 690
common value auctions: evidence from the laboratory Menkhaus DJ Shaffer S 16/2014 Indeterminacy and learning: an analysis of monetary Lubik TA 699
policy in the great inflation Matthes C 15/2014 Estimation and solution of models with expectations and Kulish M 704
structural changes Pagan A 14/2014 Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Ratti RA 687
Japanese economy Vespignani JL 13/2014 Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: a SFAVEC Ratti RA 703
approach Vespignani JL 12/2014 Determinants of risk sharing through remittances: cross- Balli F 735
country evidence Rana F 11/2014 Macroeconomic consequences of terms of trade Atkin T 751
episodes, past and present Caputo M Robinson T Wang H
10/2014 A bounded model of time variation in trend inflation, Chan JCC 735
NAIRU and the Phillips curve Koop G Potter SM 09/2014 Fast computation of the deviance information criterion Chan JCC 755
for latent variable models Grant AL 08/2014 European equity investing through the financial crisis: Clare A 371 can risk parity, momentum or trend following help to Seaton J
reduce tail risk? Smith PN Thomas S
07/2014 Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with Nason JM 736
professional forecasts Smith GW 06/2014 Measuring the stance of monetary policy in conventional Krippner L 753
and unconventional environments
The Australian National University | 20 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
05/2014 International effects of China’s rise and transition: Tyers R 781
Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives
04/2014 Buyer-size discounts and inflation dynamics Ojima M 763 Shino J Ueda K 03/2014 The boy who cried bubble: public warnings against riding Asako Y 588
bubbles Ueda K
02/2014 News-driven business cycles in small open economies Kamber G 204 Theodoridis K Thoenissen C 01/2014 The determinants of the volatility of returns on cross- Balli F 754
border asset holdings Basher SA Rana F Source: CAMA website as of date: 27/1/2015
Newsletters CAMA publishes a newsletter with the contribution of the CAMA members. The newsletter includes among other things new members, projects, awards, publications, interviews, and events. CAMA published four newsletters in 2014. An online copy of the newsletters can be found at the CAMA website (https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/cama- publications/newsletter).
Other publications Publications written by the CAMA research associates.
Climate Change and Energy program • Arora V, Cai Y (2014), ‘US natural gas exports and their global impacts’. Applied Energy 120, 95-103 • Blahova, P, Janda K and Kristoufek, L (forthcoming), ‘The Perspectives for Genetically Modified Cellulosic Biofuels in the Central European Conditions.’ Agricultural Economics • Bruns SB, Gross C, and Stern DI (2014), ‘Is there really Granger causality between energy use and output?’ Energy Journal 35(4), 101-134 • Cai Y, Kamihigashi T and Stachurski J (2014), ‘Stochastic optimal growth with risky labor supply.’ Journal of Mathematical Economics 50, 167-176 • Janda K, Kristoufek, L and Zilberman, D (forthcoming), ‘Price Transmission between Biofuels, Fuels and Food Commodities.’ Biofuels, Bio-products and Biorefining
The Australian National University | 21 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
• Kander A and Stern DI (2014), ‘Economic growth and the transition from traditional to modern energy in Sweden’, Energy Economics 46, 56-65 • Stern DI and Kaufmann RK (2014), ‘Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change’, Climatic Change 122, 257-269
Commodities and the Macroeconomy program
• Chen YC, Turnovsky SJ, Zivot E, (2014), ‘Forecasting inflation using commodity price aggregates,’ Journal of Econometrics
Finance and the Macroeconomy program
• Apergis N and Cooray A (2014), ‘Convergence in Sovereign Debt Ratios across Highly in Debt EU Countries: Evidence from Club Convergence’, Applied Economics Letters, 21(11), 786-788. • Apergis N and Cooray A (2014), ‘Tax Revenues Convergence across ASEAN, Pacific and Oceania Countries: Evidence from Club Convergence’, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 27(October), 11-21 • Arslanalp S and Liao Y, (forthcoming), ‘Banking Sector Contingent Liabilities and Sovereign Credit Risk’, Journal of Empirical Finance • Bu D and Liao Y, ‘Corporate Credit Risk Prediction with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014(47), 263-281 • Cooray A (2014), ‘Do Low Skilled Migrants Contribute More to Home Country Income? Evidence from South Asia’, B.E Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 14(3), 1185-1212. • Cooray A, Mallick S and Dutta N (2014), ‘Gender Specific Human Capital, Openness and Growth: Exploring the Linkages for South Asia’, Review of Development Economics, 18 (1), 107-122. • Cooray A, Verma R and Wright L (2014), ‘Does a Gender Disparity Exist in Academic Rank? Evidence from an Australian University’, Applied Economics, 46 (20), 2441-2451. • Cooray A (2014), ‘Who Remits: An Examination of Emigration by Education Level and Gender’, The World Economy, 37(10), 1441-1453. • Dungey M, Jacobs JPAM, Jing Tian and Simon van Norden (2014), ‘Trend in Cycle or Cycle in Trend? New Structural Identications for Unobserved Components Models of U.S. Real GDP’. Macroeconomic Dynamics. Published online: DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1365100513000606, 13 June 2014 • Fry-McKibbin, RA, Martin VL, Tang, C (2014), ‘Financial Contagion and Asset Pricing’, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol.47, pp.296 - 308. • Gorter, Janko, Stolwijk F, Jacobs JPAM and de Haan J (2014), ‘ECB Policy-Making and the Financial Crisis’. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 19, 132- 139
The Australian National University | 22 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
• Glover K J and Hambusch G(2014), ‘The trade-off theory revisited: on the effect of operating leverage’, International Journal of Managerial Finance, Vol. 10 Iss: 1, pp.2 – 22 • Hasan I, Shaffer S and Zhou M (forthcoming), ‘New Small Firms and Dimensions of Economic Performance,’ Economic Development Quarterly • Kang W, Ratti RA and Yoon KH (2014), ‘The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on U.S. Bond Market Returns’, Energy Economics, 44, 248-258. • Kang W, Lee K and Ratti RA (2014), ‘Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm-Level Investment’, Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 42-53. • Kang W and Ratti RA (forthcoming), ‘Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns’, Economics of Transition. • Knop, SJ and Vespignani, JL (2014), ‘The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia,’ Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-271 • Liao Y and Stachurski J, (forthcoming), ‘Simulation-Based Density Estimation for Time Series using Covariate Data’, Journal of Business and Economics Statistics • Morley J and EY, ‘Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks,’ Quantitative Economics, forthcoming • Okimoto T (2014), ‘Asymmetric Increasing Trends in Dependence in International Equity Markets’, Journal of Banking & Finance 46, 219-232 [CAMA WP 44/2014] • Phillips PCB, Shi S and Yu J (forthcoming), ‘Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors’, International Economic Review • Qin B and Shaffer S (forthcoming), ‘A Test of Competition in Chinese Banking,’ Applied Economics Letters • Shi S and Song Y (forthcoming), ‘Identifying Speculative Bubbles with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model,’ Journal of Financial Econometrics • Vespignani, JL 2014 (forthcoming), ‘On the differential impact of monetary policy across states/territories and its determinants in Australia: Evidence and new methodology from a small open economy’. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money • Vespignani, JL (forthcoming), ‘International transmission of monetary shocks to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China’. Economic Modelling.
Globalization and Trade program
• Baldwin, RE and Okubo, T (forthcoming), ‘Tax Competition with Heterogeneous Firms’, Spatial Economic Analysis. • Baldwin, RE and Okubo, T (forthcoming), ‘Networked FDI: Sales and sourcing patterns of Japanese foreign affiliates’, The World Economy. • Baldwin, RE and Okubo T (2014), ‘International Trade, Offshoring and Heterogeneous Firms’, Review of International Economics, 22(1), pp.59-72
The Australian National University | 23 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
• Baldwin, RE and Okubo T (forthcoming), ‘Networked FDI: Sales and sourcing patterns of Japanese foreign affiliates’, The World Economy. • Cole, MA, Elliott, RJR, and Okubo, T (forthcoming), ‘Environmental Outsourcing’, Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv). • Forslid, R and Okubo, T (forthcoming), ‘Which Firms are Left in the Periphery? Spatial Sorting of Heterogeneous Firms with Scale Economies in Transportation’, Journal of Regional Science • Forslid, R and Okubo, T (2014), ‘Spatial Sorting with Heterogeneous Firms and Heterogeneous Sectors’, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 46(3), pp.42-56. • Kondo, K and Okubo T (forthcoming), ‘Interregional Labour Migration and Real Wage Disparities: Evidence from Japan’, Papers in Regional Science. • Okubo, T, Kimura, F and Teshima, N (2014), ‘Asian Fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis’, International Review of Economics and Finance, 31, pp.114-127. • Okubo T, Picard PM and Thisse J-F (forthcoming), ‘On the Impact of Competition on Trade and Firm Location’, Journal of Regional Science. • Okubo T and Tomiura, E (forthcoming), ‘Skew Productivity Distributions and Agglomeration: Evidence from plant-level data’, Regional Studies.
Open Economy Macroeconomics program
• Bailliu J, Dib A, Kano T and Schembri L (2014), ‘Multilateral adjustment, regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics’, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 68-87 • Chen YC (2014), ‘Understanding Exchange Rate Behavior,’ International Finance • Crucini MJ and Yilmazkuday H. ‘Understanding Long-run Price Dispersion,’ Journal of Monetary Economics, forthcoming. • Crucini, MJ and Shintani M, ‘Measuring Business Cycles By Saving for a Rainy Day,’ Canadian Journal of Economics, forthcoming. • Crucini MJ, Shintani M and Tsuruga T (2014), ‘Real Exchange Rate Dynamis in Sticky Wage Models’. Economics Letters, 123 (2), pp. 160-163 • Crucini MJ, Shintani M and Tsuruga T (2014), ‘Real Exchange Rate Dynamis in Sticky Wage Models’. Economics Letters, 123 (2), pp. 160-163 • Devereux MB, Senay O, Sutherland A (2014), ‘Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization’. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 46, Issue5, pp. 921- 959 • Fielding D and Hajzler C (2014), ‘Relative Price Variability and Inflation in a Simple Consumer Search Model.’ Economics Letters, 123 (1): 17-22 • Hajzler C (2014), ’Resource-based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies,’ Journal of International Economics, 92 (1): 124-146 • Hoffmann M, Harms P, and Ortseifer C (forthcoming), ‘The Home Bias in Equities and Distribution Costs’, Scandinavian Journal of Economics
The Australian National University | 24 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
• Jacob P (forthcoming), ‘Deep Habits, Price Rigidities and the Consumption’ , Journal of Money, Credit and Banking [CAMA WP 72/2013] • Kano T (forthcoming), ‘Tractable Latent State Filtering for Non-Linear DSGE Models Using a Second-Order Approximation and Pruning’, Computational Economics. • Kollmann R, Chinn M and Devereux MB, ‘Current account imbalances and international financial integration’. Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming. • Kollmann R, in’t Veld J, Pataracchia B, Ratto M and Roeger W, ‘’International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain’. Journal of International Money and Finance, forthcoming. [CAMA working paper 40/2014] • Kollmann R, Ratto M, Roeger W,in’t Veld J, and Vogel L, ‘What Drives the German Current Account? And How Does it Affect Other EU Member States? ‘. Economic Policy, forthcoming. [CAMA working paper 35/2014] • Senay O and Sutherland A, ‘Endogenous price flexibility and optimal monetary policy’. Oxford Economic Papers (2014) 66 (4): 1121-1144
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
• Dennis R, 2014, ‘Imperfect credibility and robust monetary policy,’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 218-234 • Fujiwara I and Hirose Y (2014), ‘Indeterminacy and Forecastability,’ Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46(1), 243-251 • Fujiwara I, Kim H, Hansen B and Ogaki M (forthcoming), ‘Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule,’ Journal of Applied Econometrics • Guender A, ‘Monetary Policy and the UIP. Puzzle: Theory and Empirical Results for Oceania,’ Economic Record, v90no209, 2014: 207-219. • Guender A and Froyen R, ‘Price Level Targeting and the Delegation Issue in an Open Economy’ (with Richard Froyen), Economics Letters, v122, 2014: 12-15. • Libich J, Hughes Hallett, A and Stehlík P (2014), ‘Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction With Various Degrees of Commitment’, Czech Journal of Economic and Finance, 64(1), pp2-29 • Makin AJ (2014), ‘The Paradoxes and Pitfalls of Revived Fiscal Activism’ Economic Affairs 34(1) 60-68 • Makin AJ, Narayan, P and Narayan, S (2014), ‘What Expenditure Does Anglosphere Foreign Borrowing Fund?’ Journal of International Money and Finance 40 (1), 63-78 • Makin, A (2014), ‘Reconciling Opposing Views of the Commodity Boom’ (2014) Economic Analysis and Policy, 44, 129-135. • Hansen S, McMahon M, Rivera CV, ‘Preferences or private assessments on a monetary policy committee?’ Journal of Monetary Economics, volume 67, October 2014, pages 16-32
The Australian National University | 25 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Macroeconomic Theory program
• Gamboa F, Maldonado WL (2014), ‘Feasibility and optimality of the initial capital stock in the Ramsey vintage capital model.’ Journal of Mathematical Economics 52, 40-45 [CAMA Working Paper 38/2013] • Lee k, Morley J and Shields K (forthcoming), ‘The Meta Taylor Rule’ Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking • Lubik T, ‘Deep Habits in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve’, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 46(1), February 2014, pp. 79-114 [CAMA WP9/2012]
Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues program
• McKibbin WJ, Stoecke A B and Lu YY (2014), ‘Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing’. The World Economy, DOI: 10.1111/twec.12185
Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomics program
• Bhattarai S, Lee JW, and Park WW (2014), ‘Price Indexation, Habit Formation, and the Generalized Taylor Principle’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 48. [CAMA working paper 52/2013] • Bhattarai S, Lee JW, and Park WW (2014), ‘Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Public Debt and Policy Regimes’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 67. [CAMA working paper 75/2013] • Morley J and Liu Y (2014), ‘Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy,’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 42, May 2014, 50-68 • Morley J and Yunjong E (forthcoming), ‘Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks,’ Quantitative Economics • Morley J and Yuelin L, ‘Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy,’ Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 42, May 2014, 50-68 • Morley J, Fazzari S and Panovska I (forthcoming), ‘State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy’, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.
Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomics program • Golley J and Tyers R (2014), ‘Gender rebalancing in China’, Asian Population Studies, (ERA A, GS cites = 3+1 from WP, Taylor and Francis), 10(2): 125-143. • Tyers R (forthcoming 2015), ‘Pessimism shocks in a model of global macroeconomic interdependence’, International Journal of Economics and Finance, January (ABDC B). • Tyers R and Zhang Y (2014), ‘Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle’, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, November (Survey journal: ABDC C, Blackwell). • Tyers R (2014), ‘Looking inward for transformative growth’, China Economic Review, 29: 166–184 (ABDC A, Elsevier, GS cites = 1+ 12 from WP).
The Australian National University | 26 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
• Tyers R and Zhang Y(2014), ‘Short run implications of China’s reform agenda’, Chapter 7 in R. Garnaut, C. Fang and L. Song (eds), Deepening Reform for China’s Long-Term Growth and Development, Canberra: ANU E Press and Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, Pp 159-189.
CAMA PhD student publication
• Phan T (2014), ‘Output Composition of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: Is Australia Different?’ Economic Record, forthcoming. [CAMA working paper 39/2014]
Books Finance and the Macroeconomy program
• Boonman T, Jacobs JPAM and Kuper GH, ‘Currency crises in Mexico 1990-2009: An Early Warning System Approach’. In: S. Coronado-Ramirez, P L Celso-Arellano and C. Trejo-Pech (eds.), Nonlinear Time Series and Finance, University of Guadalajara, Chapter 2,34-51, 2014 • Claessens S, Kose MA, Laeven L, Valencia F. Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, International Monetary Fund, 2014.
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
• Makin A and Arora R (2014), ‘How Solid are the BRICS?: An Economic Overview’ (2014) in V. Lo and M. Hiscock (eds) The Rise of BRICS in the Global Political Economy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenam.
Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomics program • Chan J and Kroese DP, Statistical Modeling and Computation, Springer, 2014 • Sinclair TM, Joutz F, and Stekler HO, ‘Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? ‘ In: Madrick J, Why the Experts Missed the Recession, The New York Review of Books, September 25, 2014, Volume 61, Number 14
Media
CAMA affiliates also contributed to the public debate participating in interviews with prestigious news agencies such as The Canberra Times, ABC news, The Business, Financial Review and others. They also have articles published in Advance magazine, Crawford School’s public policy quarterly. In 2014 CAMA introduced its new Twitter page @CAMacroAnalysis and a Wikipedia page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_for_Applied_Macroeconomic_Analysis).
The Australian National University | 27 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Events
CAMA actively promotes events such as workshops and conferences in Australia and internationally through sponsorship, organisation and advertising. CAMA is a representative on the NBER East Asian Seminar in Economics (EASE) and the OECD based National Economic Research Organizations (NERO) network. CAMA also hosts the CAMA Macroeconomics Brown Bag Seminars where staff, visitors and PhD students have an opportunity to present their work.
Workshops and conferences
International workshop on scenarios for a fragile world economy Professor Warwick McKibbin, Dr Andy Stoeckel, Professor Reneé McKibbin, Associate Professor Ippei Fujiwara, and others 04 to 05 Mar 2014 Washington DC
This two-day workshop brought together leading scholars on the economics and politics of key regions with an eye to weaving together a consistent view of the likely global economic outlook over the coming decade. It explored regional dimensions of the global economic outlook, linkages between them, and the implications for global economic modelling scenarios.
Conference on judgement and combination in forecasting and policy models Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Centre for Economic Policy Research; Barbara Rossi, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Centre for Economic Policy Research; Frank Schorfheide University of Pennsylvania and Centre for Economic Policy Research; and plus many more. 20 to 21 Mar 2014 London
Judgement and expert knowledge is widely thought to be important in the successful practice of forecasting. For policymakers, forecasts also embody judgments about the state of the economy, the transmission of shocks and optimal policy responses which necessitate the use of structural models. This conference aimed to bring together policymakers and academics interested in these issues. The conference was sponsored by CAMA.
CAMA short course on Econometrics methods Professor Vance Martin 07 to 09 April 2014 The Australian National University
This was a three-day course on econometrics based on the recent book Econometric Modelling with Time Series Specification, Estimation and Testing, by Martin, Hurn and
The Australian National University | 28 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Harris. The main emphasis of the course was on applying econometric methods to solve a range of economic and statistical problems. Each day was consisted of four sessions, two theory and two computer sessions. Day one reviewed maximum likelihood methods as well as discussed quasi maximum likelihood. Day two focused on relaxing some of the moment and distributional assumptions underlying maximum likelihood by discussing estimators based on generalized method of moments and nonparametrics. Day three focused primarily on time series methods including stationary time series models such as VARs and SVARs as well as nonstationary time series models including unit root tests, cointegration and error correction modelling. The software used in the computer classes was Matlab. It was assumed that participants had some familiarity with this software, although all relevant computer commands were developed during the course. A full set of lecture notes and exercises were available as well as Matlab computer files.
Workshop of the Australasian Macroeconomics Society (WAMS) 31 July - 1 August 2014 University of Melbourne
The Australasian Macroeconomics Workshop (AMW) and the Workshop on Macroeconomic Dynamics (WMD) have joined forces to become the Workshop of the Australasian Macroeconomics Society (WAMS). The inaugural workshop, hosted by the Macroeconomics Research Unit, the Economics Department, the Department of Business Administration and the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne, welcomed submissions in all areas of macroeconomics. The workshop had three principal purposes. First, it was an opportunity for Australasian macroeconomists to share and discuss their results and ideas with each other, to encourage excellence and collaboration in research in macroeconomics in Australasia. Second, by bringing top international researchers here, the workshop aimed to help connect researchers here with top people from around the world in a two-way learning process. Third, by bringing together both theoretical and applied researchers, the workshop aimed to foster synergies between and across all modern scientific approaches to macroeconomics. The 2014 WAMS workshop was sponsored by CAMA.
CAMA and Tax and Transfer Policy Institute roundtable 19 August The Australian National University
CAMA and the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute held a roundtable/brain storming discussion on the macroeconomic aspects of tax and transfer policy. The Tax and Transfer Policy Institute has recently been established in Crawford School and Miranda Stewart has
The Australian National University | 29 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis taken over the leadership of the Institute. She would like to engage with the macroeconomists in Canberra to help her identify the big macro/fiscal issues which will help to shape the intellectual contribution of the Institute in the area of tax and transfer policy. Representatives from the Treasury also attended.
Seminars
The sectoral reallocation of government purchases as budgetary-neutral stabilisation tool: a model-based analysis 06 Feb 2014 Stefan Hohberger, PhD student, University of Bayreuth.
In this seminar Stefan Hohberger provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘The sectoral reallocation of government purchases as budgetary-neutral stabilisation tool: a model- based analysis’. The paper focus on rules that adjust the composition of government spending on tradable and non-tradable goods in response to domestic or external indicators. The fiscal policy is budgetary-neutral in the sense that the overall level of government expenditure is kept constant. Stefan’s paper found that state-dependent changes in the composition of government spending between tradable and non-tradable goods can be a useful instrument to stabilise domestic activity and increase household welfare for economy-wide supply and demand shocks. In contrast to fiscal devaluation, however, the expenditure-shifting rule faces a trade-off between stabilising domestic activity and enhancing household welfare, on the one hand, and reducing excessive fluctuations in external positions, on the other hand.
Guarantees, transparency and the interdependency between sovereign and banking risk 13 Feb 2014 Frank Heinemann, Berlin University of Technology.
In this seminar Frank Heinemann discussed the coordination problem between banks and sovereign’s creditors induce a functional interdependence between the likelihood of a government default and banks’ liquidity.
The (ir)relevance of alternative savings mechanisms: borrowing constraints and the durable goods co-movement puzzle 20 Mar 2014 Chris Perks, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU.
In this seminar Chris Perks provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘The (Ir)relevance of alternative savings mechanisms: borrowing constraints and the durable goods co- movement puzzle’. Chris Perks noticed in his paper that since the seminal work of Barsky, House and Kimball (2003, 2007), a substantial amount of the durable goods literature has centred on the negative co-movement of durable and non-durable consumption in
The Australian National University | 30 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis response to unanticipated changes in monetary policy. This negative co-movement is sharply at odds with the empirical evidence. Recent papers have addressed this discrepancy through the introduction of borrowing constraints (Monacelli 2009). However, it has recently been claimed that the inability of certain types of models with borrowing constraints to improve on generic sticky price models in the generation of positive co- movement in the wake of a monetary policy shock is at least partially attributable to equilibrium in the market for savings (Sterk 2010). Chris’ paper showed that introducing government debt and foreign debt markets and unconstraining the decisions of household savers does not aid the model in the generation of co-movement. Rather, the model's co- movement properties largely rest on the shadow value of durables as originally proposed by Barsky et al (2007).
Implicit central bank preferences: nominal GDP and the great moderation 03 Apr 2014 Dony Alex, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School, ANU.
In this seminar Dony Alex provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘Implicit central bank preferences: nominal GDP and the great moderation’. Dony Alex estimated a forward looking nominal GDP rule for the U.S spanning from 1960-2007 and tried to reconsider the preferences of the Federal Reserve during this period. Most of the studies until now have focused mainly on Taylor rule type monetary policy reaction functions and found inflation to be the major preference variable for the Federal Reserve. Monetary policy via stabilization of inflation expectations has been argued as one of the prominent factors responsible for the Great Moderation in the U.S. Dony Alex’s study countered the conventional stronger preference for inflation view for stabilizing expected inflation, and instead showed that the Federal Reserve was implicitly targeting nominal GDP for accomplishing this objective. This claim has been corroborated by estimating different variants of nominal GDP rules and compared with Taylor rules using both ex-post revised data and real time briefing forecasts of FOMC. The results found by Dony Alex countered the conventional view and showed that post Volcker era or during the period of Great Moderation (1984-2007), the Federal Reserve had a stronger implicit preference for nominal GDP as compared to inflation.
Estimating fiscal multipliers: news from a non-linear world 10 Apr 2014 Gabriela Nodari, PhD student, University of Verona.
In this seminar Gabriela Nodari provided an overview of her recent paper, ‘Estimating fiscal multipliers: news from a non-linear world’. Gabriela estimated non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the United States. The author dealt with the issue of non fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by
The Australian National University | 31 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information of future evolutions of public spending. Results found by the author and based on generalized impulse responses suggested that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically large than in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on deep recessions vs. strong expansionary periods.
Global public goods and coalition formation under matching mechanisms 24 Apr 2014 Larry Liu, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School, ANU.
In this seminar Larry Liu provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘Global public goods and coalition formation under matching mechanisms’. Larry investigated coalition formation under matching mechanisms with multiple players who have the same preference but different incomes. Given income heterogeneity within a certain range, there always exist small matching rates which make all members in the coalition better off. However, players have incentives to take free rides and the matching coalition does not exist. Larry believes that if players value their reputation, they would stay in the coalition when the gain of free riding is lower than the reputation loss. Due to heterogeneity, the matching coalition faces trade-off between matching depth and breadth. Larry concluded that the matching rate can be flexibly set to compromise between cooperation depth and breadth and, more importantly, it may achieve Pareto-improving outcomes while avoiding international side payments.
The environment and economic growth: modelling heterogeneity of ecosystems and technologies 12 Jun 2014
Akshay Shanker, PhD student, Crawford School, ANU. This seminar was Akshay’s first thesis presentation. His thesis looked at the issue of economic growth on a finite planet. He is interested in finding out how the heterogeneity of technical change relates to the possibility of sustainable growth.
The elephant in the ground: managing oil and sovereign wealth 28 Aug 2014 Dr Samuel Wills, University of Oxford
In this seminar Samuel Wills provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘The elephant in the ground: managing oil and sovereign wealth’. Many oil exporters accumulate large sovereign wealth funds, though their portfolio allocation does not take into account below- ground assets, like oil. Similarly, the above-ground portfolio does not affect the decision to extract oil. In this paper, Dr Wills showed that subsoil oil wealth should change a country’s
The Australian National University | 32 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis above-ground asset allocation in two ways. First, the holding of all risky assets is leveraged because there is additional wealth outside the fund. Second, more (less) is invested in financial assets that are negatively (positively) correlated with oil to hedge against the riskiness of subsoil exposure. Furthermore, if marginal oil rents move pro- cyclically with the value of the financial assets in the fund, then oil will be extracted faster than predicted by the standard Hotelling rule. This generates a risk premium for being exposed to volatile oil prices. Finally, Dr Wills suggested that any unhedged residual volatility must be managed through additional precautionary saving.
Identification of financial shocks in SVAR with model based sign restrictions 25 Sep 2014 Zulfiqar Hyder, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School, ANU.
In this seminar Zulfiqar Hyder provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘Identification of financial shocks in SVAR with model-based sign restrictions’. This paper quantifies the importance of financial shocks in business cycle fluctuations for the US economy using structural VAR models. Financial and non-financial shocks are identified with a minimum set of sign restrictions based on the two competing New Keynesian models: the standard New Keynesian model augmented with a financial accelerator and the New Keynesian model augment with financial intermediaries. Estimation results show that a financial shock, emanating both from entrepreneur’s net worth and financial intermediaries net worth, is prominent in explaining fluctuations in real output. As far as the relative importance of these two financial shocks is concerned, the following results stand out. A financial shock related to the demand side is the major driver of short run output fluctuations while financial shocks related to financial intermediaries explains relatively larger share of output fluctuations over longer time horizon. Zulfiqar concluded that a financial shock related with demand side explains relatively larger variations in the interest rate spread over longer time horizon.
Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries 2 Oct 2014 Dr Samuel Wills, University of Oxford
In this seminar Samuel Wills provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries’. This paper studies how monetary policy should respond to news about an oil discovery, using a workhorse New Keynesian model. Good news about future production can create a recession today under exchange rate pegs and a simple Taylor rule, as seen in practice. This is explained by forward-looking inflation. Recession is avoided by a Taylor rule that accommodates changes in the natural level of output, which closely approximates optimal policy. Samuel Wills concluded that central banks have an
The Australian National University | 33 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis incentive to exploit oil revenues by appreciating the terms of trade, creating ‘Dutch disease’ and a deflationary bias which is overcome by committing to future policy.
Assessing the economic general equilibrium effects of sea level rise in the Italian regions 23 Oct 2014 Gabriele Standardi, FEEM Italy
In this seminar Gabriele Standardi provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘Assessing the economic general equilibrium effects of sea level rise in the Italian regions’. Economic assessment of sea level rise (SLR) through computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling is a widespread and effective approach to quantify economic dimensions of damages and potentially come out with useful adaptation actions. One main limitation is that traditionally global CGE models are specified at the country level as highest geographical detail. However climate change is very likely to produce uneven patterns also at the sub-national level. The aim of this work was to enrich the current state of the art proposing a methodology combining the top-down approach consisting of a sub-national CGE model and a bottom-up approach (based on DIVA model) to assess the economic general equilibrium effects of SLR in the 20 Italian regions by the end of 21st century. Gabriele’s approach considered all the economic interactions among sub-national regions and between them and the rest of Europe and the World. Moreover, the optimal behavior of the economic agents responds to change in prices, which, in turn, signal the productivity loss in the resource induced by the climate change impact (market-driven or autonomous adaptation). Gabriele concluded that, in spite of a longer coastline in regional islands (Sicily and Sardinia), Emilia Romagna and Veneto are the most affected regions in all the IPCC scenarios analyzed. In the flexible model we can observe a reallocation of capital and labor from these regions to the landlocked regions.
How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence 30 Oct 2014 Saten Kumar, Auckland University of Technology
In this seminar Saten Kumar provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘How do firms form their expectations? New survey evidence’. Saten implemented a new survey of firms’ macroeconomic beliefs in New Zealand and document a number of novel stylized facts from this survey. Despite nearly 25 years under an inflation targeting regime, there is widespread dispersion in firms’ beliefs about both past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation, with average beliefs about recent and past inflation being much higher than those of professional forecasters. Saten concluded that much of the dispersion in beliefs can be explained by firms’ incentives to collect and process information, i.e. rational inattention motives. For example, firms which face more competitors or firms which expect to change their prices sooner have systematically better macroeconomic information.
The Australian National University | 34 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Does nominal GDP pass the forecastability test for being the future monetary policy framework? 13 Nov 2014 Dony Alex, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School, ANU
In this seminar Dony Alex provided an overview of her recent paper, ‘Does nominal GDP pass the forecastability test for being the future monetary policy framework?’. This paper tried to compare the forecast performance between the nominal anchors of inflation and nominal GDP targeting regimes for U.S. This task was undertaken by using a series of models from simple autoregressive models to state space models. Dony concluded that inflation has been found quite hard to forecast, but it seemed that nominal GDP is much harder to forecast.
The effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies: a global vector autoregressive framework 20 Nov 2014 Taya Dumrongrittikul, Research School of Economics, ANU
In this seminar Taya Dumrongrittikul provided an overview of her recent paper, ‘The effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies: a global vector autoregressive framework’. Taya investigated international responses of key macroeconomic variables, particularly real exchange rates, to simultaneous shocks to productivity in the traded sector in eight Asian emerging and developing economies including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. She used panel estimation techniques to construct component submodels in a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The GVAR approach can account for interaction among 30 countries and capture many potential international transmission channels. She identified the shocks by using sign restricted impulse responses. Taya found that traded-sector productivity growth in Asian developing countries leads to a real appreciation of the domestic currencies, in line with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis. Inflation also increases in many Asian developing countries. After the shocks, nontraded sector productivity in the US and other developed countries increases, suggesting that there is a compositional shift in their production, away from the traded goods toward the nontraded goods. This allows productivity in the nontraded sector to increase. Further, the traded sector productivity shocks in Asia stimulate international trade in most countries.
Fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries: the roles of oil funds and institutional quality 28 Nov 2014 Wee Koh, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School, ANU
In this seminar Wee Chian Koh provided an overview of his recent paper ‘Fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries: the roles of oil funds and institutional quality’. This paper examined
The Australian National University | 35 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis the roles of oil funds and institutional quality in reducing fiscal pro-cyclicality and macroeconomic volatility in 42 oil-exporting countries from 1960 to 2012 using panel vector autoregression techniques. The results show that oil funds are effective in reducing fiscal pro-cyclicality in countries with high institutional quality but not necessarily so in those with low institutional quality. Wee Chian Koh concluded that even though macroeconomic volatility in countries with high institutional quality is considerably low, the scope for further volatility reduction through oil funds is limited.
Determinants of systemically important banks: the case of Europe rational expectations versus adaptive learning in a DSGE model 15 Dec 2014 Jacob Kleinow, Freiberg University, Germany
In this seminar Jacob Kleinow provided an overview of his recent paper, ‘Determinants of systemically important banks: the case of Europe’. This paper investigated the drivers of systemic risk and contagion among European banks from 2007 to 2012. First, Jacob derived a systemic risk measure from the concepts of MES and CoVaR analysing tail co- movements of daily bank stock returns. He then run panel regressions for the systemic risk measure using idiosyncratic bank characteristics and a set of country and policy control variables. Jacob’s results comprised highly significant drivers of systemic risk in the European banking sector with important implications for banking regulation.
Rational expectations versus adaptive learning in a DSGE model 16 Dec 2014 Angelia Grant, PhD student, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School, ANU
In this seminar, Angelia provided an overview of her recent paper ‘Rational expectations versus adaptive learning in a DSGE model’. This paper replaced the assumption of rational expectations with adaptive learning in a widely cited DSGE model and compared the implied expectations generated by the different models with actual and survey data. It also assessed the overall relative fit of the models with the deviance information criterion, which is not commonly used to compare DSGE models. It is found that the assumption of rational expectations performs well. It provided an overall model fit that is comparable to the adaptive learning models, and is comparable in fitting implied expectations to actual consumption and inflation data and expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The adaptive learning models provided a slightly better fit to actual and survey investment data.
The Australian National University | 36 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Staff and Associates
Director Professor Warwick McKibbin has a Chair in Public Policy in the ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) in Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University (ANU). He is also an ANU Public Policy Fellow; a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Sciences; a Distinguished Fellow of the Asia and Pacific Policy Society; a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C (where he is co- Director of the Climate and Energy Economics Project) and President of McKibbin Software Group Inc. Professor McKibbin was foundation Director of the ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and foundation Director of the ANU Research School of Economics. He was also a Professorial Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy for a decade from 2003 where he was involved in its design and development. Professor McKibbin served for a decade on the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia (the Australian equivalent of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve) until July 2011. He has also served as a member of the Australian Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, and on the Australian Prime Minister’s Taskforce on Uranium Mining Processing and Nuclear Energy in Australia. Prof McKibbin received his B.Com (Honours 1) and University Medal from University of NSW (1980) and his AM (1984) and a PhD (1986) from Harvard University. He was awarded the Centenary medal in 2003 ‘For Service to Australian Society through Economic Policy and Tertiary Education’. Professor McKibbin is internationally renowned for his contributions to global economic modeling. Professor McKibbin has published more than 200 academic papers as well as being a regular commentator in the popular press. He has authored/ edited five books including Climate Change Policy after Kyoto: A Blueprint for a Realistic Approach with Professor Peter Wilcoxen of Syracuse University. He has been a consultant for many international agencies and a range of governments on issues of macroeconomic policy, international trade and finance, greenhouse policy issues, global demographic change and the economic cost of pandemics.
2014 publications McKibbin WJ, Morris, A, and Wilcoxen PJ (2014), ‘A Proposal for Integrating price Mechanisms into International Climate Change Negotiations’, Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Vol 1, no 3, p600-608. McKibbin W, Stoeckel A, and Lu Y (2014),‘Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing’, The World Economy, Vol 37, no 7, pp892-992.
The Australian National University | 37 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis McKibbin WJ, Morris, A, and Wilcoxen PJ (2014), ‘Pricing Carbon in the United States: A model-based analysis of power sector only approaches.’, Resource and Energy Economics vol 36, no 1, pp 130-150. North Holland
Deputy Director Ippei Fujiwara is Professor of Macroeconomics at Crawford School of Public Policy, associate editor of Japan and the World Economy, research associate at the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, co-director for Australia-Japan Research Centre, and the deputy director at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA). He completed his DPhil in economics at the University of Oxford (Nuffield), and a PhD in Applied Economics at Osaka University. Professor Fujiwara worked for the Bank of Japan for 18 years before joining Crawford School of Public Policy where his research has focused on international finance, monetary economics and macroeconomics. His recent publications are in Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control and Macroeconomic Dynamics.
2014 publications Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule, (with Hyeongwoo Kim, Bruce Hansen and Masao Ogaki), Journal of Applied Econometrics, accepted
Optimal Monetary Policy with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety, (with Florin Bilbiie and Fabio Ghironi), 2014, Journal of Monetary Economics 64, 1-20 Indeterminacy and Forecastability, (with Yasuo Hirose), 2014, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46(1), 243-251
2014 research grants Australian Research Council (ARC), Discovery Projects (2014-2016): DP140102941 (Chief Investigator), ‘Optimal Policy under the Global Liquidity Trap,’ AUD 267,350.
Management committee
Creina Day Renée Fry-McKibbin Ippei Fujiwara Timo Henckel Warwick McKibbin
The Australian National University | 38 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Administrator Rossana Bastos-Pinto
PhD students Dony Alex Patrick Carvalho Angelia Grant Nguyen Hoai Bao Zulfiqar Hyder Shane Johnson Karen Kai-Yun Anil Kavuri Jakub Kielbasa Paul Kitney Weifang (Larry) Liu Kate McKinnon Luke Meehan Arjuna Mohottala Chris Perks Tuan Phan Barckhordair Sajad Yashodha Senadheera Pathirannehelage Akshay Shaker Daniel Silva Withmory Jiao Wang Koh Wee Chian Jasmine Zheng Beili Zhu
Advisory Board
Professor Robert A. Buckle, Victoria University of Wellington
The Australian National University | 39 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Dr Peter Bushnell, The Treasury, New Zealand Professor Carlo Carraro, University of Venice Professor Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania Dr Malcolm Edey, Reserve Bank of Australia Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University Professor Reuven Glick, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Professor Miranda Goeltom, Bank Indonesia Dr Arthur Grimes, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Dr Don Hanna, Fortress Investment Group Dr Dale Henderson, Georgetown University Prof Dr Cars H. Hommes, University of Amsterdam Dr Sharon Kozicki, Bank of Canada Professor Allan Layton, University of Southern Queensland Professor Guay C. Lim, University of Melbourne Professor Robert Mundell, Columbia University Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, Bank of Thailand Professor Maurice Obstfeld, University of California, Berkley Professor Adrian Pagan, University of Sydney Dr Martin Parkinson, The Treasury Professor Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University Dr Ric Simes, Deloitee Access Economics Mr Grant Spencer, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Professor Heizo Takenaka, Keio University, Japan
Advisory Board - past members Professor Clive Granger (1934-2009), Advisory Board member (2003-2009), UC San Diego, Awarded 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics Professor Lawrence Klein (1920-2013), Advisory Board member (2003-2013), Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Awarded 1980 Nobel Prize in Economics
The Australian National University | 40 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Program Directors
Name Institution Program Martin Berka University of Auckland Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Paul Cashin International Monetary Fund Commodities and the Macroeconomy program Creina Day The Australian National University Economic Growth and Development program Richard Dennis University of Glasgow Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Mardi Dungey University of Tasmania Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Ippei Fujiwara The Australian National University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Ippei Fujiwara The Australian National University Multi-Country Models and Methods program Pedro Gomis- Deakin University Macroeconomic Theory program Porqueras Timo Henckel The Australian National University Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program Raghbendra Jha The Australian National University Economic Growth and Development program Warwick McKibbin The Australian National University Multi-Country Models and Methods program Warwick McKibbin The Australian National University Climate Change and Energy program
Warwick McKibbin The Australian National University Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues program Renée Fry-McKibbin The Australian National University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Renée Fry-McKibbin The Australian National University Commodities and the Macroeconomy program Bruce Preston Monash University Macroeconomic Theory program
Rodney Strachan University of Queensland Model Uncertainty and Macro- Econometrics Christoph Thoenissen University of Sheffield Open Economy Macroeconomics program
David Vines University of Oxford Globalisation and Trade program
The Australian National University | 41 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Alan Woodland University of New South Wales Globalisation and Trade program
Doctoral Student Associates
Name Institution Program Anil Kavuri The Australian National University Climate Change and Energy program
Jakub Kielbasa The Australian National University Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity program Paul Kitney The Australian National University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Paul Kitney The Australian National University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Paul Kitney The Australian National University Multi-Country Models and Methods program Paul Kitney The Australian National University Macroeconomic Theory program
Weifeng (Larry) Liu The Australian National University Climate Change and Energy program
Christopher Perks The Australian National University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Christopher Perks The Australian National University Macroeconomic Theory program
Barckhordair Sajad University of Tehran Climate Change and Energy program
Akshay Shanker The Australian National University Climate Change and Energy program
Xiaolin (Sylvia) Xiao University of Technology, Sydney Globalisation and Trade program
Jasmine Zheng The Australian National University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Jasmine Zheng The Australian National University Commodities and the Macroeconomy program
Research Associates
Name Institution Program
Stefano D Addona University of Rome 3 Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Pierre-Richard Agenor The University of Manchester, Economic Growth and Development
UK program
Jaime Alonso-Carrera Universidade de Vigo, Spain Macroeconomic Theory program
Heather Anderson Monash University Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
The Australian National University | 42 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
James Ang Monash University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Mikhail Anufriev University of Technology, Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Sydney Complexity program
Kosuke Aoki The University of Tokyo Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Kerim Peren Arin Zayed University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Philip Bagnoli OECD Climate Change and Energy program
Faruk Balli Massey University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Michelle L Barnes Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Dirk Baur Sydney Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Gianluca Benigno London School of Economics Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Prasad Bhattacharya Deakin University Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Sambit Bhattacharyya University of Sussex Economic Growth and Development
program
Hilde C Bjørnland Norwegian School of Finance and the Macroeconomy program Management
Hilde C Bjørnland Norwegian School of Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Management program
Martin Bodenstein Asian Development Bank Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Martin Bodenstein Asian Development Bank Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Martin Bodenstein Asian Development Bank Macroeconomic Theory program
Alison Booth The Australian National Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues
University program
Melisso Boschi Senate of the Republic of Italy Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Robin J Brooks Brevan Howard Inc. Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues
program
Ralph Bryant Brookings Institution Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Ralph Bryant Brookings Institution Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues
program
Barbara Buchner Climate Policy Initiative Climate Change and Energy program
The Australian National University | 43 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Willem Buiter Citigroup Centre Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Paul Burke The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
Yiyong Cai CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Climate Change and Energy program Research
Gerard Caprio Williams College Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Efrem Castelnuovo University of Padova Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Joshua Chan The Australian National Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics University
Bruce Chapman The Australian National Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues
University program
Yu-chin Chen University of Washington Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Yu-chin Chen University of Washington Commodities and the Macroeconomy
program
Todd E Clark Federal Researve Bank of Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics Cleveland
Edda Claus Wilfrid Laurier University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Iris Claus Asian Development Bank Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Adam Clements Queensland University of Finance and the Macroeconomy program Technology
Patrick J Coe Carleton University Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
William Coleman The Australian National Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program University
David Cook Hong Kong University of Science Open Economy Macroeconomics program and Technology
Arusha Cooray University of Wollongong Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Jenny Corbett The Australian National Finance and the Macroeconomy program University
Mario Crucini Vanderbilt University Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Martin H Davies Washington and Lee University Globalisation and Trade program
Gordon De Brouwer Department of the Prime Finance and the Macroeconomy program Minister and Cabinet
Paul De Grauwe The London School of Economics Behavioural Macroeconomics and
and Political Science Complexity program
The Australian National University | 44 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Emmanuel De Veirman Reserve Bank of New Zealand Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Corrado Di Guilmi University of Technology, Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Sydney Complexity program
Alexandre Dmitriev The University of New South Macroeconomic Theory program Wales
Begona Dominguez University of Auckland Macroeconomic Theory program
Qingyuan Du Monash University Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Gerald Dwyer Jr Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Rochelle Edge Board of Governors of the Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Federal Reserve System
Sandra Eickmeier Deutsche Bundesbank Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Graham Elliott University of California, San Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics Diego
Joshua Epstein The Brookings Institution Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Jesus Felipe Asian Development Bank Economic Growth and Development
program
Shigeru Fujita Federal Reserve Bank of Macroeconomic Theory program Philadelphia
Martin Fukac Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Macroeconomic Theory program City
Prasanna Gai The University of Auckland Macroeconomic Theory program
Anthony Garratt University of London, Birkbeck Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Aditya Goenka National University of Singapore Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Aditya Goenka National University of Singapore Macroeconomic Theory program
R Quentin Grafton The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
Nicolas Groshenny University of Adelaide Macroeconomic Theory program
Alfred Guender University of Canterbury Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Ross Guest Griffith University Economic Growth and Development
program
Christopher Hajzler University of Otago Open Economy Macroeconomics program
The Australian National University | 45 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Viv B Hall Victoria University of Wellington Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Gerhard Hambusch University of Technology, Finance and the Macroeconomy program Sydney
Ross A Hammond The Brookings Institution Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Don Harding La Trobe University Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Iftekhar Hasan The Fordham University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
David Haugh OECD Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Yasuo Hirose Keio University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Viktoria Hnatkovska University of British Columbia Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Mathias Hoffmann University of Zurich Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Mathias Hoffmann Deutsche Bundesbank Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao University of New South Wales Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Stan Hurn Queensland University of Finance and the Macroeconomy program Technology
Punnoose (Reuben) Reserve Bank of New Zealand Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Jacob
Jan PAM Jacobs University of Groningen Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Karel Janda University of Economics, Prague Climate Change and Energy program
Tingsong Jiang Centre for International Climate Change and Energy program Economics
Frank Jotzo The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
Roselyne Joyeux Macquarie University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Benoit Julien University of New South Wales Macroeconomic Theory program
Gunes Kamber Reserve Bank of New Zealand Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Takashi Kano Hitotsubashi University Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Jinill Kim Korea University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
The Australian National University | 46 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Ian King University of Melbourne Macroeconomic Theory program
Robert Kollman Université Libre de Bruxelles Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Ayhan Kose IMF Research Department Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Leo Krippner Reserve Bank of New Zealand Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Mariano Kulish University of New South Wales Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Mariano Kulish University of New South Wales Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Mariano Kulish University of New South Wales Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Saten Kumar Auckland University of Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Technology
Cagri S Kumru The Australian National Macroeconomic Theory program University
Hong-Giang Le The Australian National Multi-Country Models and Methods
University program
Kihoon Lee The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
Kevin Lee The University of Nottingham Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Jong-Wha Lee Korea University Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Kirdan Lees New Zealand Institute of Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program Economic Research
Ashley Lester Brown University Economic Growth and Development
program
Shuyun May Li University of Melbourne Macroeconomic Theory program
Yin Liao Queensland University of Finance and the Macroeconomy program Technology
Jan Libich La Trobe University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Denny Lie The University of Sydney Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Philip Liu International Monetary Fund Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Philip Liu International Monetary Fund Macroeconomic Theory program
Yingying Lu The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
The Australian National University | 47 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Thomas Lubik Federal Reserve Bank of Macroeconomic Theory program Richmond
Jakob Madsen Monash University Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Anthony (Tony) Makin Griffith Business School Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Wilfredo Maldonado Catholic University of Brasilia Macroeconomic Theory program
Vance Martin University of Melbourne Finance and the Macroeconomy program
John McDermott Reserve Bank of New Zealand Commodities and the Macroeconomy
program
Ian McDonald University of Melbourne Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Michael McMahon University of Warwick Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Roland Meeks University of Essex Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Gordon Menzies University of Technology, Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Sydney Complexity program
Gordon Menzies University of Technology, Multi-Country Models and Methods
Sydney program
Bryan Mignone The Brookings Institution Climate Change and Energy program
James Mitchell University of Leicester Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Masayuki Morikawa METI - Japan Economic Growth and Development
program
James Morley The University of New South Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics Wales
James Morley The University of New South Finance and the Macroeconomy program Wales
Adele Morris The Brookings Institution Climate Change and Energy program
Karen Mumford The University of York Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Anella Munro Reserve Bank of New Zealand Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Tomoyuki Nakajima Kyoto University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
James Nason NC State University Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Charles Nolan University of Glasgow Open Economy Macroeconomics program
The Australian National University | 48 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Sylwia Nowak International Monetary Fund Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Masao Ogaki Keio University Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto The Australian National Finance and the Macroeconomy program University
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto The Australian National Commodities and the Macroeconomy
University program
Toshihiro Okubo Keio University Globalisation and Trade program
Chiara Oldani University of Viterbo La Tuscia Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Denise Osborn University of Manchester Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Les Oxley The University of Waikato Climate Change and Energy program
Gulcin Ozkan The University of York Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Adrian Pagan University of Sydney Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Woong Yong Park University of Illinois Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
David Pearce The Centre for International Climate Change and Energy program Economics
Victor Pontines The South East Asian Central Finance and the Macroeconomy program Banks (SEACEN)
Simon Price Bank of England Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Ronald A Ratti University of Western Sydney Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Francesco Ravazzolo Norges Bank (Central Bank of Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics Norway)
Tim Robinson University of Melbourne Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Tim Robinson University of Melbourne Commodities and the Macroeconomy
program
Tim Robinson University of Melbourne Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Guillaume Rocheteau University of California at Irvine Macroeconomic Theory program
John Romalis The Australian National Globalisation and Trade program University
Michael Roos Ruhr-University Bochum Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
The Australian National University | 49 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch Swiss National Bank Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Ozge Senay University of St Andrews Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Facundo Sepulveda Universidad Santiago de Chile Macroeconomic Theory program
Sherrill Shaffer University of Wyoming Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Anurag Sharma Monash University Economic Growth and Development
program
Jeffrey Sheen Macquarie University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Shuping Shi Macquarie University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Kalvinder K Shields University of Melbourne Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Pierre Siklos Wilfrid Laurier University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Tara M Sinclair The George Washington Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics University
Reza Siregar South East Asian Central Banks Finance and the Macroeconomy program (SEACEN)
Michael Smith University of Melbourne Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Peter N Smith The University of York Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Christopher Smith Reserve Bank of New Zealand Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Nicola Spagnolo Brunel University Finance and the Macroeconomy program
John Stachursk The Australian National Macroeconomic Theory program University
Gabriele Standardi Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Alison Stegman The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
David Stern The Australian National Climate Change and Energy program University
Andrew Stoeckel The Centre for International Commodities and the Macroeconomy
Economics program
Alan Sutherland University of St Andrews Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Kang Yong Tan Franklin Templeton Investments Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
The Australian National University | 50 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Satoshi Tanaka University of Queensland Macroeconomic Theory program
Kam Ki Tang University of Queensland Economic Growth and Development
program
Hsiao Chink Tang Asian Development Bank Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Lei Ming Chrismin Tang University of Melbourne Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Yuki Teranishi Keio University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Susan Thorp University of Technology, Finance and the Macroeconomy program Sydney
Russell Toth The University of Sydney Economic Growth and Development
program
Chung Tran The Australian National Macroeconomic Theory program University
Sirimon The University of Western Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Treepongkaruna Australia
Takayuki Tsuruga Kyoto University Open Economy Macroeconomics program
Rod Tyers The University of Western Multi-Country Models and Methods
Australia program
Jean-Robert Tyran University of Copenhagen Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Kozo Ueda Waseda University Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks program
Lawrence Uren University of Melbourne Macroeconomic Theory program
Farshid Vahid Monash University Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Abbas Valadkhani Swinburne University of Finance and the Macroeconomy program Technology
Simon Van Norden HEC Montreal Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Tugrul Vehbi New Zealand Treasury Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Joaquin Vespignani University of Tasmania Finance and the Macroeconomy program
Yuichiro Waki The University of Queensland Macroeconomic Theory program
Kenneth F Wallis University of Warwick Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Sumila Wanaguru Central Bank of Sri Lanka Finance and the Macroeconomy program
The Australian National University | 51 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
Mark Weder University of Adelaide Macroeconomic Theory program
Peter Wilcoxen Syracuse University Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Peter Wilcoxen Syracuse University Climate Change and Energy program
John C Williams Federal Reserve Bank of San Macroeconomic Theory program Franciso
John C Williams Federal Reserve Bank of San Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics Franciso
Samuel Wills University of Oxford Commodities and the Macroeconomy
program
Justin Wolfers University of Michigan Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Benjamin Wong Reserve Bank of New Zealand Commodities and the Macroeconomy
program
Benjamin Wong Reserve Bank of New Zealand Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics
Jacob Wong University of Adelaide Macroeconomic Theory program
Wing Thye Woo University of California Davis Multi-Country Models and Methods
program
Mark Wright University of California, Los Globalisation and Trade program Angeles
Ying Xu The Australian National Finance and the Macroeconomy program University
Daniel Zizzo University of East Anglia Behavioural Macroeconomics and
Complexity program
Visitors
• Era Dabla-Norris International Monetary Fund 10 November 2014
• Saten Kumar Auckland University of Technology 30 October 2014
• Gabriele Standardi Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 1 October - 31 December 2014
The Australian National University | 52 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis
• David Vines University of Oxford 3 September - 5 October 2014
• Yu-Ling (Cody) Hsiao University of New South Wales 1 September - 11 September
• Samuel Wills University of Oxford 25 August - 10 October 2014
• Gabriela Nodari University of Verona 10 April 2014
• Yu-Ling (Cody) Hsiao University of New South Wales 1 April- 10 April 2014
• Vance Martin University of Melbourne 7 April - 9 April 2014
• Morten Bach Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland 25 February - 26 February
• Frank Heinemann Technische Universitat Berlin 12 February - 14 February 2014
• Stefan Hohberger University of Bayreuth 20 January - 28 February 2014
The Australian National University | 53 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Funding
The table below summarizes our funding for 2014.
Income Student fees 0.00 Other income -150.00 Internal sales 0.00 Internal allocations 1,246.26 Operating grant 97,500.00 Investment income 0.00 Total Income 98,596.26 Expenses Salaries and related costs 76,619.05 Equipment - capital 0.00 Equipment - non-capital 0.00 Scholars expenses 25,408.35 Utilities and Maintenance 0.00 Travel field & survey expenses 15,521.89 Expendable research materials 0.00 Contributions 0.00 Consultancies 7,805.00 Consumables 902.65 Depn & Amort 0.00 Internal purchases 0.00 Other expenses 10,917.17 Contingency 0.00 Total Expenditure 137,174.11 Current year operating result -38,577.85 Transfer inflow/outflow 7,376.99 Net current year operating result -31,200.86 Prior year cash result 354,587.85 Net operating position 323,386.99
The Australian National University | 54 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis CAMA by numbers
In 2014 CAMA: published 78 working papers attracted 16 new affiliates hosted 22 events, including 17 seminars received 11 visitors, including visitors of 8 international institutions was followed by 72 Twitter users and made 123 tweets since its start in August 2014 was a team of 164 research associates
The Australian National University | 55 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Contact
Homepage: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/ Email: [email protected] Twitter: @CAMacroAnalysis
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) Crawford School of Public Policy College of Asia and the Pacific The Australian National University #132, Lennox Crossing Acton ACT 2601
Director: Warwick McKibbin Ph: 61 2 6125 0301 E: [email protected]
Administrator: Rossana Bastos Pinto Ph: 61 2 6125 8108 E: [email protected]
The Australian National University | 56