The Implications of Ultra-Low and Negative Interest Rates for Asia ADBI Annual Conference 2016 Asian Development Bank Institute 1–2 December 2016

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE Asian Development Bank Institute 19th Annual Conference Implications of Ultra-Low and Negative Interest Rates for Asia 1-2 December 2016, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

1 December, Thursday 9:00 – 9:30 Registration 9:30 – 9:40 Opening Remarks Naoyuki Yoshino Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute 9:40 – 10:10 Keynote Speech 1 Takehiko Nakao President, Asian Development Bank Open Floor Discussion 10:10 – 10:40 Keynote Speech 2 Narayana R. Kocherlakota Professor, University of Rochester; Former President and CEO, Minneapolis Fed (2009-2015) Open Floor Discussion 10:40 – 11:00 Photograph and Coffee Break 11:00 – 12:30 Distinguished Speaker Session I: Negative Interest Rates in Advanced Economies Moderator: Naoyuki Yoshino Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute Panelists: Jean-Pierre Danthine President of the Board, Paris School of Economics; Member of the Board of Trustees, Center for Economic Policy Research; Former Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (2010-2012) Cecilia Skingsley Deputy Governor, Sveriges Riksbank Sayuri Shirai Professor, Keio University; Visiting Fellow, Asian Development Bank Institute; Former Policy Board Member, Bank of Japan (2011–2016) Luc Laeven Director General Research, European Central Bank Open Floor Discussion 12:30 – 13:20 Lunch 13:20 – 14:50 Distinguished Speaker Session II: Implications of Ultra-Low and Negative Interest Rates For Monetary Policy and Macro-prudential Policy in Asia Moderator: Juzhong Zhuang Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank Panelists: Veerathai Santiprabhob Governor, Bank of Thailand Joon-Ho Hahm Monetary Policy Board Member, Bank of Korea Hans Genberg Executive Director, SEACEN Centre Dong He Deputy Director, International Monetary Fund Open Floor Discussion 14:50 – 16:20 Distinguished Speaker Session III: The Implications of Ultra-Low and Negative Interest Rates for Financial Markets in Asia Moderator: Guanghua Wan Director of Research, Asian Development Bank Institute Panelists: Michael M. Hutchison Professor, University of California, Santa Cruz Robert McCauley Senior Adviser at Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements Tamim Bayoumi Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Alicia Garcia Herrero Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, Natixis Open Floor Discussion 16:20 – 16:30 Coffee Break 1 December, Thursday Academic Session I Moderator: Michael M. Hutchison Professor, University of California, Santa Cruz

16:30 – 17:00 The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives Joshua Aizenman Professor, University of Southern California, Yin-Wong Cheung Professor, City University of Hong Kong, and Hiroyuki Ito (presenter) Professor, Portland State University Discussant: Hans Genberg Executive Director, SEACEN Centre

17:00 – 17:30 Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Interest Rates: Some Early Negative Observations Allaudeen Hameed Professor, National University of Singapore, and Andrew K. Rose (presenter) Professor, University of California, Berkeley-Haas Discussant: Masao Ogaki Professor of Economics, Keio University 17:30 – 18:00 Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from a FAVAR Model Mark M. Spiegel (presenter) Vice President and Director for Center for Pacific Basin Studies International Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Andrew A. Tai Research Associate, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Discussant: Toshitaka Sekine Director-General of Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan

Open Floor Discussion 18:30 – 20:30 Dinner Reception (By invitation only)

2 December 2016, Friday Academic Session II Moderator: Jennifer Corbett Distinguished Professor, Australian National University

9:30 – 10:00 Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Asian Financial Crisis Tamim Bayoumi Deputy Director of Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, International Monetary Fund, and Joseph E. Gagnon (presenter) Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics Discussant: James McAndrews Fellow, Wharton Financial Institutions Center; Former Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2010-2016)

10:00 – 10:30 The Case for Cash James McAndrews Fellow, Wharton Financial Institutions Center; Former Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2010-2016) Discussant: Gudrun Monika Moede Head, Deutsche Bundesbank Representative Office Tokyo

Open Floor Discussion 10:50 – 11:10 Photograph and Coffee Break Academic Session III Moderator: Shinichi Nakabayashi Director, Asian Development Bank Institute

11:10 – 11:40 Ultra-Low Interest Rates and Growth in Emerging East Asia from a Hayekian Perspective Gunther Schnabl Professor, Leipzig University Discussant: Naoyuki Yoshino Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute

11:40 – 12:10 The impacts of Japan’s negative interest rate policy on Asian financial markets Shinichi Fukuda Professor, University of Tokyo Discussant: Ippei Fujiwara Professor, Keio University

12:10 – 12:40 Negative Interest Rate Policies: Sources and Implications Carlos Arteta Lead Economist of Development Prospects Group, World Bank, M. Ayhan Kose Director of Development Prospects Group, World Bank Group, Marc Stocker Senior Economist, Development Prospects Group, World Bank, Temel Taskin Economist, Development Prospects Group, World Bank, and Naotaka Sugawara (presenter) Economist, Development Prospects Group, World Bank Discussant: Koji Nakamura Head of Economics Research Division, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan

Open Floor Discussion 2 December 2016, Friday 13:10 – 14:00 Lunch Break Academic Session IV Moderator: Peter Morgan, Senior Consultant for Research, Asian Development Bank Institute

14:00 – 14:30 Divergent Monetary Policies and International Dollar Credit—Evidence from Bank-level Data Dong He Deputy Director, International Monetary Fund, Eric Wong (presenter) Senior Manager, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Kelvin Ho Manager, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and Andrew Tsang Economist, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Discussant: Ying Xu Lecturer, Australian National University

14:30 – 15:00 Long-term Interest Rates Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia by Ansgar Belke (presenter) University of Duisburg-Essen and Centre for European Policy Studies, Irina Dubova (presenter) University of Duisburg-Essen and Ruhr Graduate School, and Ulrich Volz SOAS University of London and German Development Institute Discussant: Masazumi Hattori Professor at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

15:00 – 15:30 Carry Trades in Asia and the Pacific: Evidence on Unconventional Monetary Policies of Advanced Economies Pornpinun Chantapacdepong (presenter) Research Fellow, Asian Development Bank Institute, Hiroyuki Ito (presenter) Professor, Portland State University, and Kieran Hull Research Associate, Asian Development Bank Institute Discussant: Michael T. Chng Professor, International Business School Suzhou, Xi’an Jiaotong- Liverpool University

Open Floor Discussion 16:00 – 16:20 Coffee Break Academic Session V Moderator: Takashi Matsuo Representative, Asian Development Bank Japan Representative Office

16:20 – 16:50 The Implementation and Transmission of Negative Interest Rate Policies in Europe and Japan: The Bank Lending Channel Stefan Angrick (presenter) Research Associate, Asian Development Bank Institute, and Naoko Nemoto Financial Economist, Asian Development Bank Institute Discussant: Gunther Schnabl Professor, Leipzig University

16:50 – 17:20 Implications of negative interest rates for Asia: FAVAR approach Martin Feldkircher Researcher, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Florian Huber, Professor, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Pornpinun Chantapacdepong, Research Fellow, Asian Development Bank Institute, and Maria Teresa Punzi (presenter) Professor, Vienna University of Economics and Business Discussant: Yuqing Xing Professor and Director of Asian Economic Policy, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

17:20 – 17:50 The Impact of US Monetary Policy and other external shocks on the Hong Kong Economy: A Factor augmented VAR Approach Hongyi Chen (presenter) Senior Manager, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, and Andrew Tsang Economist, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Discussant: Nao Sudo Economist, Bank of Japan

Open Floor Discussion 18:20 – 18:30 Concluding Remarks Naoyuki Yoshino Dean, Asian Development Bank Institute PRESENTERS

Joshua Aizenman serves as the Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations and chair of the Economics Department, University of Southern California. His research covers a range of issues in open economy, including commercial and financial policies, crises in emerging markets, foreign direct investment, capital controls, and exchange rate regimes. Joshua also serves as a research associate for the National Bureau of Economic Research, and co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance. Other affiliations have included teaching and research positions at University of California, Santa Cruz, Dartmouth, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, and University of Pennsylvania.

Stefan Angrick is a research associate at the Asian Development Bank Institute, where he specializes in the analysis of central banking and its political economic aspects. He has worked and studied at Leipzig University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Keio University. His research has been presented at leading international policy and academic institutions, including the Bank of Finland, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Peking University, Meiji University, and KDI School. Stefan holds a PhD from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

Tamim Bayoumi is a deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, where he focuses on developing policy on surveillance. He previously worked on the Japanese and US economies as well as the World Economic Outlook and the External Sector Report, in addition to numerous academic papers. He recently took a sabbatical as a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where he wrote a book analyzing the original and implications of the 2008–2010 North Atlantic crisis. He has a first degree from Cambridge University and a PhD from Stanford University.

Ansgar Belke is a full professor of macroeconomics and director of the Institute of Business and Economic Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen. Since 2012, he has been (ad personam) Jean Monnet Professor. He is also a member of the Adjunct Faculty Ruhr Graduate School in Economics and visiting professor at the Europa-Institute at Saarland University, Saarbrucken, and the Hertie School of Governance, Berlin. He was a visiting researcher at the IMF in Washington, DC; CentER Tilburg; CEPS Brussels; IfW Kiel; DIW Berlin; and OeNB Vienna. His main areas of interest are international macroeconomics, monetary economics, European integration, and applied econometrics. Pornpinun Chantapacdepong is a research fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI). She specializes in monetary policy, exchange rate policy, international capital flows, volatility in asset prices, and central bank balance sheets. Before joining ADBI, she was head of the Monetary Policy Team at the Bank of Thailand. She holds economics degrees from Thammasat University (BA), the University of Warwick (MSc), and the University of Bristol (PhD). She is also a guest lecturer at Thammasat University, Kasetsart University, University of Tokyo, and Hitotsubashi University.

Hongyi Chen is a senior manager at the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR). Seconded from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), he is responsible for the daily operations of the HKIMR. He also undertakes research under the institute’s purview. Before joining the HKIMR, he worked at the research department and the external department of the HKMA, and the IMF sub- office in Hong Kong, China. He is a graduate of Columbia University and Beijing University. His research interests include monetary policy analysis, international economics, the economy of the People’s Republic of China, and financial markets.

Yin-Wong Cheung is the Hung Hing Ying Chair Professor of International Economics at the City University of Hong Kong. He is also professor emeritus of the University of California, Santa Cruz, the director of the Global Research Unit, and a founding member of the Methods in International Finance Network, among others. He obtained his bachelors, masters, and PhD degrees from the University of Hong Kong, the University of Essex, and the University of Pennsylvania, respectively. His areas of research include applied econometrics, exchange rate dynamics, asset pricing, output fluctuation, and economic issues of Asian economies.

Michael T. Chng is a professor of finance and deputy dean of research at the International Business School Suzhou, Xian–Jiaotong Liverpool University. He received his PhD from the University of Melbourne. He has published several papers that have appeared in the Journal of Banking and Finance, the Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, and the Journal of Futures Markets. His current research projects include commodity markets, credit default swaps, arbitrage, and price discovery, as well as higher moments and option metrics in asset pricing. Jenny Corbett is a distinguished professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University and a fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia. She was previously pro vice-chancellor at the Australian National University and prior to that the executive director of the Australia–Japan Research Centre. She is also a reader in the Economy of Japan at the University of Oxford, among others. She has a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan. Her research centers on current macroeconomic and financial policy issues in Japan, regional financial integration, and policy response to financial crises.

Jean-Pierre Danthine is president of the Paris School of Economics and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Center for Economic Policy Research in London. He is also member of the Board of the Fondation Leenaards in Lausanne. He was a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank from January 2010 to April 2012 and its vice-chairman from May 2012 until June 2015. Born in Havelange, Belgium, he earned a master’s degree in economics at the Université catholique de Louvain (Belgium) and a PhD in economics at the Carnegie Mellon University.

Irina Dubova is a research fellow and PhD student at the University Duisburg- Essen, Germany. She obtained her bachelor’s degree in mathematics at Novosibirsk State University, and her master’s degree in economics at the National Research University, Higher School of Economics, the Russian Federation. Her area of research interest is applied international macroeconomics.

Shin-ichi Fukuda is a professor of economics in the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. He has been a visiting scholar at the Australian National University, a visiting professor of economics at Yale University, and a visiting fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute. His recent work deals with issues related to exchange rate policy, monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve accumulation, and banking problems under crises. He holds a PhD in economics from Yale University.

Joseph E. Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Prior to 2009, he served at the US Federal Reserve Board and the US Treasury Department and taught at the University of California, Berkeley. He is the author of several books and numerous articles in economics journals, including the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Review of International Economics, and the Journal of International Money and Finance. He received a BA from Harvard University and a PhD in economics from Stanford University. Alicia Garcia Herrero is chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. She is also a senior fellow at the European think tank Bruegel and a research fellow at Real Instituto Elcano. She is adjunct professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. She held various positions at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Bank of International Settlements, Bank of Spain, European Central Bank, Banco Santander, and the International Monetary Fund. Alicia holds a PhD in economics from George Washington University.

Hans Genberg is an adviser in macroeconomics and monetary policy management at the South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre. He was assistant director at the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, executive director of research at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, director of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, and visiting adviser at the Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific of the Bank for International Settlements. A Swedish national, he holds a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.

Joon-Ho Hahm is a member of the Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea. He is on leave from Yonsei University, where he is a professor of International Economics and Finance. He was an assistant professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a research fellow at the Korea Development Institute. He served in a variety of advisory and consultative roles for the Government of the Republic of Korea, and for international organizations, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. He received his MBA and PhD from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.

Masazumi Hattori is a professor at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. He worked at the Bank for International Settlements and the Bank of Japan as an economist for research and analysis of monetary policy, financial markets, and the banking industry. He was also a visiting research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research covers unconventional monetary policy, the yen carry trade, financial regulation, and bank lending. He has a BA in economics from Hitotsubashi University and an MPhil and DPhil in economics from the University of Oxford. Dong He is deputy director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). His responsibilities include providing leadership for work on global financial stability analysis (including the production of the Global Financial Stability Report), monetary and macroprudential policies, and central bank operations, among others. Prior to joining IMF in 2014, he was executive director at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and director of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Cambridge. He has published extensively on monetary policy and financial market issues.

Michael Hutchison is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He held positions at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the Bank for International Settlements, the Copenhagen Business School, the Bank of Japan, the Hong Monetary Authority, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the International Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank, and other institutions. His research focuses on the causes and costs of financial crises in developing economies, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the conduct of monetary policy in emerging markets.

Hiroyuki Ito is a professor of economics at Portland State University. His areas of focus are financial liberalization, financial development, macroeconomic interlinkages between countries, and East Asian economics. He was a visiting scholar at the Asian Development Bank Institute, Bank for International Settlements, De Nederlandsche Bank, and Research Institute of Economics, Trade, and Industry, and a consultant for the Asian Development Bank. He received his PhD and MA in economics from the University of California, Santa Cruz, and MA in international relations from Johns Hopkins University. He holds a BA in Law from Waseda University.

Narayana Kocherlakota is the inaugural Lionel W. McKenzie Professor of Economics at the University of Rochester. He held appointments in economics and finance at the University of Minnesota, Stanford, Northwestern, and the University of Iowa. In 2009–2015, Kocherlakota served as the 12th president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank. He has published over 50 scholarly articles in macroeconomics, financial economics, and economic theory. He is also a fellow of the Econometric Society and a columnist for BloombergView. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago and his AB in mathematics from Princeton University. Luc Laeven is the director-general of the General Research Directorate of the European Central Bank. Prior to this, he worked at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. His research focuses on banking and international finance issues and has been widely published in top academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Finance, and Journal of Financial Economics. He is a Chaired Professor of Finance at Tilburg University, and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He studied economics and finance at Tilburg University, the University of Amsterdam, and the London School of Economics.

Takashi Matsuo is the Representative of the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Japanese Representative Office in Tokyo, appointed in August 2016. Prior to this assignment, Mr. Matsuo was Director, Environment, Natural Resources and Agriculture Division, South Asia Department of ADB. He started his career in ADB as a Project Economist in 1993 working for agriculture and rural development projects. Prior to joining ADB, he worked for a consulting firm for 10 years as an agricultural economist. He obtained a bachelor’s degree from the University of Tokyo, Japan and a master’s degree from Cornell University, USA both in agricultural economics.

James J. McAndrews is an economist specializing in the economics of money and banking. Most recently he was executive vice president and head of the Research and Statistics Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He also served on the Bank’s Management Committee and its subcommittees as a member of the steering committee for the Federal Reserve System’s Comprehensive Liquidity and Analysis Review, and as associate economist to the Federal Open Market Committee. He holds bachelor’s and doctorate degrees in economics from the University of Iowa.

Robert McCauley is a senior advisor at the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Before joining BIS, he worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He is a member of the Banque de France Fondation Scientific Council. His fields of interest are financial markets, international finance, and exchange rates.

Gudrun Monika Moede is head of Deutsche Bundesbank’s Representative Office, Tokyo. In 1986 she joined the German central bank and served in various positions, starting at a branch office but mainly in the central office in Frankfurt. For several years she worked in the IT department, in charge of IT security management. She was seconded to the European Central Bank and to the Council of Europe in Strasbourg. She arrived in Tokyo for the first time in 1993 to intern at Meiji Life Insurance. Peter Morgan is a senior consultant for research at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Previously, he served as chief Asia economist for HSBC, responsible for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Asia. Before that, he was chief Japan economist for HSBC, and earlier held similar positions at Merrill Lynch, Barclays de Zoete Wedd, and Jardine Fleming. Prior to entering the financial industry, he specialized in energy, environmental areas, and financial sector consulting. His research areas are macroeconomic policy and financial sector regulation and reform. He earned his MA and PhD degrees in economics from Yale University.

Shinichi Nakabayashi is director for administration, management, and coordination at the Asian Development Bank Institute. He was previously an international consultant economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)– Singapore Regional Training Institute, where he taught macroeconomic policy to government officials from Asia. He was a professor of international finance and public economics at the Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo. He was a senior official at the Japanese Ministry of Finance, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, and IMF. He has an MPhil degree in economics from the University of Oxford and a BA from the University of Tokyo.

Koji Nakamura is associate director-general and division head, Economic Research Division, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan. He is in charge of research on Japan’s economy and inflation forecasting. He joined the Bank of Japan in 1992 and held a variety of senior positions in Monetary Affairs Department, Research and Statistics Department, and Financial System and Bank Examination Department. In 2003–2006, he was an economist in the Policy Developments and Review Department, International Monetary Fund. He holds an MA in economics and an MBA from Boston University, and a BA in economics from the University of Tokyo.

Takehiko Nakao is the President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the chair of its Board of Directors. Before joining ADB, he was the vice minister of finance for international affairs at the Ministry of Finance (MOF), Japan. In a career spanning more than 3 decades, he has gained extensive experience in international finance and development. He held senior positions in MOF in Japan, including director-general of the International Bureau. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo and an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley. Naoko Nemoto is a financial economist at the Asian Development Bank Institute. Her research interests include monetary policy, financial markets, and structural reform. She also serves as liaison for the Asia Think Tank Secretariat and related think tank summits. As former managing director at Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, she led research and thought-leadership activities on Japan-related agenda and Asia-Pacific financial institutions. Before that she was an economist and analyst at the Bank of Japan. She has a bachelor’s degree in law from Waseda University and an MBA from the University of Chicago.

Maria Teresa Punzi is an assistant professor at the Vienna University of Economics and Business. She obtained her PhD in economics at Boston College. Her fields of specialization include housing markets, macroprudential policy, and global imbalances. She has published in academic journals, including the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, the Journal of Financial Stability and the Journal of Banking and Finance. She has taught at the University of Nottingham, University of Alicante and at Boston College.

Andrew K. Rose is the B.T. Rocca Jr. professor of international business in the Economic Analysis and Policy Group, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. He serves as associate dean for Academic Affairs, and chair of the faculty. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (Cambridge, MA), and a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (London, United Kingdom). He received his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his MPhil from the University of Oxford, and his BA from the University of Toronto.

Veerathai Santiprabhob is the governor of the Bank of Thailand. He is a macroeconomist, strategist, and financial professional with more than 20 years of experience in economic policy design, commercial banking, and capital market. He began his career in 1994 as an economist at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC before serving as a co-director of the Policy Research Institute of Thailand’s Ministry of Finance during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In 2014, he was appointed as a member of the Bank of Thailand Thailandal Monetary Fund in Washittee. He received his BA in economics from Thammasat University and his MA and PhD in economics from Harvard University. Gunther Schnabl is a professor for international economics and economic policy at Leipzig University. He earned his PhD at Tübingen University and was a visiting researcher at Bank of Japan, Stanford University, Tokyo University, Catholic University Leuven, Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and European Central Bank. His research focuses on exchange rate economics and international monetary systems, with a regional focus on Japan, East Asia, and Europe. He is in the top 3% in Germany and Europe in the IDEAS research ranking.

Toshitaka Sekine is director-general for the Research and Statistics Department at the Bank of Japan. He is responsible for reporting staff’s conjectural analyses and the outlook for Japan’s economy to the Monetary Policy Meeting, and for compiling and developing various statistics created by the bank. He spent many years as an economist at the Bank of Japan as well as at the BIS and the International Monetary Fund. His research includes inflation dynamics, exchange- rate pass-through, corporate investment, and bank lending behavior. He received a BA from the University of Tokyo and a DPhil from Oxford University.

Sayuri Shirai is a visiting scholar at the Asian Development Bank Institute and a full professor at Keio University. She was a member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) from April 2011 to March 2016. During her term she made 22 official speeches (see BOJ website) at major central banks, the International Monetary Fund, universities, think tanks, and other institutions. Topics include the negative interest rate policy, the BOJ’s quantitative and qualitative monetary easing and past monetary easing policies, a comparison of the unconventional monetary policies across countries, inflation expectations, European crises, global financial flows, and inflation-targeting frameworks of emerging Asia.

Cecilia Skingsley took up the post of deputy governor of the Riksbank in May 2013 with a term of office of 6 years. She is chair of the Retail Payments Council and was previously chief economist at Swedbank. She has a BSc in economics and a CEFA degree.

Mark Spiegel is vice president of the finance and international research sections of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and was director of that bank’s Center for Pacific Basin Studies. Prior to joining the Federal Reserve, he was an assistant professor in the Department of Economics at New York University. He was a visiting professor in the Economics Department of the University of California (UC), Berkeley, as well as a lecturer at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley and the University of Wisconsin, Madison. He received his PhD in economics from UC Los Angeles and his BA from UC Berkeley. Nao Sudo is deputy head of the Policy Studies Division of the Monetary Affairs Department, Bank of Japan. He earned an MA in economics at Kyoto University and a PhD in economics at Boston University. His publications have appeared in Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking and other international journals. He was in several working groups under the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Board, including the Macroeconomic Assessment Group on Derivatives and Risk Measurement Working Group and Joint Working Group on Central Counterparties.

Naotaka Sugawara is an economist in the Development Prospects Group at the World Bank. He rejoined the institution from the International Monetary Fund, where he was an economist in the Research Department. Prior to that, at the World Bank, he worked in the Office of the Chief Economist and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit of Europe and Central Asia Region, and in the Development Research Group. He has numerous publications related to international economics and finance, fiscal policy and financial sector development. He received a master’s degree from the University of Pittsburgh and an undergraduate degree from Meiji University, Tokyo.

Guanghua Wan is director of research, ADBI. Previously, he was principal economist and head of the poverty and inequality group at ADB. Prior to ADB, he was a senior economist in the United Nations and taught in universities in Australia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Trained in development economics and econometrics, he is a scholar on the PRC economy and an expert on Asia. with more than 100 professional articles and a dozen books including two by Oxford University Press. He is among the top 8% of economists globally and top 4% in Asia, according to the latest ranking of REPEC.

Eric Wong is a senior manager, Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). Prior to joining the department, he was a credit analytics manager at HSBC and a banking analyst at the HKMA responsible for Basel II implementation and stress-testing. His main research interest involves analyzing policy effects of bank regulations and developing stress-testing tools, early- warning systems and credit risk models for financial institutions. His banking research articles have been published in a number of academic journals. He holds a PhD degree in economics and finance from the University of Hong Kong. Yuqing Xing is a professor of economics of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo and a member of the International Advisory Committee of the Global Production Network Center at the National University of Singapore. He served as the director of the Capacity Building and Training Department of the Asian Development Bank Institute from 2011 to 2014. His research focuses on international trade, foreign direct investment, exchange rates, and global value chains. He received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Peking University and his PhD in economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Ying Xu is a lecturer in the international development and economics program at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University (ANU). Her main research areas are banking, finance, and international economics, with a focus on the People’s Republic of China and other Asian economies. She is also a research associate at the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU, and was a visiting scholar at the China Centre for Economic Research, Beijing, and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, Jakarta.

Naoyuki Yoshino is dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute, chief adviser at the Japan Financial Services Agency’s Financial Research Center, chair of the Meeting of Japanese Government Bond Investors, and professor emeritus of Keio University. He chaired the Financial Planning Standards Board, the Japanese Ministry of Finance Council on Foreign Exchange, and the Fiscal System Council. He was a board member of the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan and president of Japan’s Financial System Council. He obtained his PhD from Johns Hopkins University. He holds honorary doctorates from the University of Gothenburg and Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg.

Juzhong Zhuang joined the Asian Development Bank in 1997, worked as economist, senior economist, principal economist, assistant chief economist, and is currently deputy chief economist, Economics Research and Regional Cooperation Department. In 1992–1997 he was a research officer of the Development Economics Research Programme, London School of Economics. He has written extensively on Asian development, and edited and co-edited a number of books. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Manchester. About the Asian Development Bank Institute

The Asian Development Bank Institute, located in Tokyo, is the think tank of the Asian Development Bank. The institute aims to identify effective strategies to improve policy and development management in Asia and the Pacific. We work with an extensive network of partners in the region and globally to influence policies on poverty reduction, inclusive growth, the environment, regional cooperation, infrastructure development, middle-income countries, and private sector development.

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