ANNUAL REPORT 2014 CENTRE FOR APPLIED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS Crawford School of Public Policy ANU College of Asia & the Pacific Message from the Director 2014 was another outstanding year for CAMA. Professor Reneé Fry-McKibbin who became CAMA Director in 2012, moved to a more senior role at ANU. I returned as Director in November 2014 to continue the important plans put in place during Reneé’s leadership. All participants in CAMA owe a great debt to the time and effort that Reneé contributed to CAMA. Reneé will continue as a member of the Management Committee and the co-director of two CAMA programs. CAMA relies on leadership and contributions at many levels. In particular, the Management Committee of Ippei Fujiwara, Creina Day and Timo Henckel supported by the CAMA Administrator, Rossana Bastos Pinto and each of the Program Directors have done a great job in maintaining the goals of CAMA throughout 2014. During 2014, 78 working papers were published. CAMA Research Associates published outstanding papers in the world’s leading economics and finance journals. A total of 88 papers were published in peer reviewed journals in 2014. CAMA Research Associates also actively participated in conference and workshops around the world and had important impact on major policy debates in many countries. CAMA was involved in 22 conferences, workshops and seminars in 2014. The number of CAMA Research Associates rose from 148 in 2013 to 164 in 2014. CAMA is a network of scholars. The success of CAMA draws directly on the active participation of researchers around the world who believe in excellence in research and public policy and contributing to public goods. I would like to thank everyone in CAMA for their contributions and their support. Warwick McKibbin Director, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Contents Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis – an overview ................................................ 1 Research programs ............................................................................................................. 2 Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity ................................................................. 2 Climate Change and Energy ............................................................................................. 3 Commodities and the Macroeconomy............................................................................... 4 Economic Growth and Development................................................................................. 4 Finance and the Macroeconomy ....................................................................................... 5 Globalisation and Trade .................................................................................................... 6 Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks ................................................................................. 6 Macroeconomic Theory .................................................................................................... 7 Macroeconomics and Longer Run Issues ......................................................................... 7 Model Uncertainty and Macro-Econometrics .................................................................... 9 Multi-Country Models and Methods .................................................................................. 9 Open Economy Macroeconomics ................................................................................... 10 CAMA RBA Shadow Board ................................................................................................ 10 Current members ............................................................................................................ 11 Past members ................................................................................................................. 16 Publications ....................................................................................................................... 16 Working papers ............................................................................................................... 17 Newsletters ..................................................................................................................... 21 Other publications ........................................................................................................... 21 Media ................................................................................................................................. 27 Events ................................................................................................................................ 28 Workshops and conferences .......................................................................................... 28 Seminars ......................................................................................................................... 30 Staff and Associates .......................................................................................................... 37 Director ........................................................................................................................... 37 Deputy Director ............................................................................................................... 38 Management committee ................................................................................................. 38 Administrator ................................................................................................................... 39 PhD students .................................................................................................................. 39 Advisory Board ............................................................................................................... 39 Program Directors ........................................................................................................... 41 Doctoral Student Associates ........................................................................................... 42 Research Associates ...................................................................................................... 42 Visitors ............................................................................................................................... 52 Funding .............................................................................................................................. 54 CAMA by numbers ............................................................................................................. 55 Contact .............................................................................................................................. 56 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis – an overview The Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) is located in Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. It was established in 2003 to bring together economists working on applied macroeconomic and financial market issues throughout Australia and across the globe. CAMA’s objectives are to advance research and post-graduate training in applied macroeconomic and financial issues. CAMA was founded by Professor Warwick McKibbin who is also the current director. The deputy director is Professor Ippei Fujiwara. Former directors include Professor Renée Fry- McKibbin and Professor Shaun Vahey and deputy directors include Professor Heather Anderson, Professor Mardi Dungey and Professor Renée Fry-McKibbin. The Australian National University | 1 Annual Report 2014: Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis Research programs The research activities of the centre are built around a series of research programs headed by a program director (or directors). The program director is responsible for organising research in the area of the program. Proposals for new programs are welcome and will be considered by the Executive Committee. Proposals should be directed to the CAMA director. It is envisaged that programs will be active for two years after which they are reviewed. Behavioural Macroeconomics and Complexity Behavioural Macroeconomics seeks to refine our understanding of th e discipline by accounting for relevant features of human behaviour that are absent in the standard economics framework. Instead of assuming a hyper-rational representative agent, the basis for analysis are empirically well-documented psychological and sociological factors such as cognitive bias, fairness concerns, herding, and social status. Acknowledging the growing econometric and experimental evidence that human behaviour often fails the predictions of the rational expectations, full-information paradigm, this research program provides an umbrella for all research dedicated to melding the insights from behavioural economics and psychology with modern macroeconomics in a sound and rigorous way. An integral part of this research agenda is the problem of aggregation and the presence of agent heterogeneity, which considers the economy as an adaptive nonlinear network that generates complex, emergent behaviour. Salient features of this approach include dispersed interaction of agents, multiple levels of organisation and interaction, bounded rationality, continual adaptation of agents’ behaviours, actions and strategies, deep, unquantifiable uncertainty and persistent out-of- equilibrium dynamics. The emphasis is both on theoretical and empirical models: • Theoretical behavioural models will analyse