2016 Strategic Conflict Assessment of Nigeria
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2016 Strategic Conflict Assessment of Nigeria 2016 Strategic Conflict Assessment of Nigeria Consolidated and Zonal Reports Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution Abuja Published by Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution Abuja © Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), Abuja 2017 First published 2017 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior permission of IPCR, the copyright owner. ISBN 978–978–961–473–8 Produced in Nigeria at The Archers Press by JOHN ARCHERS (Publishers) Ltd. First Floor, Ebun Isola House, 53 Gbadebo Str., Mokola GPO Box 339, Dugbe, Ibadan ! 0803 4476 916, 0805 833 6156 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Contents Foreword 9 List of Acronyms 11 List of Table 11 Editorial Team 12 Executive Summary 13 SECTION ONE: INTRODUCTION AND METHODS OF STUDY 21 1.1 General Introduction 21 1.2 Methods of Study 24 1.3 Limitations and Constraints 26 SECTION TWO: THE BACKGROUND TO CONFLICTS IN NIGERIA 27 2.1 History 27 2.2 Geographical Spread and Categorisation of Conflicts 30 2.3 Emerging Forms of Conflict Dynamics 50 SECTION THREE: THE STRUCTURAL CAUSES OF CONFLICTS 52 3.0 Methodology Issues for Conflict Assessment 52 3.1 Security-related Manifestations of Conflict 53 3.2 Political Manifestations of Conflict 54 3.3 Economic Manifestations of Conflict 55 3.4 Social Manifestations of Conflict 57 3.5 Conflict Actors 58 3.6 Conflict Dynamics 62 SECTION FOUR: RESPONSES TO CONFLICTS 64 4.0 Methodology 64 4.1 Track One: Government Response 64 4.2 Track Two: Non-Government Response 67 4.3 Track Three: International Organisations 67 4.4 General Conclusion 67 SECTION FIVE: RECOMMENDATIONS 70 5.1 Achieving Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions 70 References (Consolidated Report) 73 ZONAL REPORTS 77 NORTH-CENTRAL GEO-POLITICAL ZONE 79 List of Acronyms 81 List of Table/Maps 82 2016 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA: CONSOLIDATED AND ZONAL REPORTS " 5 Executive Summary 83 Section One: Introduction and Historical Background 85 Section Two: Methodology 88 Section Three: Conflict/Peace Studies 89 FCT Abuja 89 Benue State 96 Kogi State 108 Kwara State 118 Nasarawa State 127 Niger State 134 Plateau State 139 References 144 NORTH-EAST GEO-POLITICAL ZONE 147 Acronyms and Abbreviations 149 List of Maps 151 Executive Summary 152 The North-East of Nigeria 154 Adamawa State 165 Bauchi State 178 Borno State 189 Gombe State 200 Taraba State 206 Yobe State 213 References 218 NORTH-WEST GEO-POLITICAL ZONE 223 List of Acronmys 225 List of Maps 226 Executive Summary 227 Section One: Introduction and Historical Background 231 Section Two: Methodology 234 Section Three: Conflict Case Studies 235 Jigawa State 238 Kaduna State 242 Kano State 251 Katsina State 254 Kebbi State 260 Sokoto State 264 Zamfara State 268 Section Four: Causes and Analysis of Conflicts 274 Section Five: Impact of Conflicts 276 Section Six: Responses/Interventions 279 Section Seven: Conclusions 283 Section Eight: Recommendations 286 References 289 6 " 2016 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA: CONSOLIDATED AND ZONAL REPORTS SOUTH-EAST GEO-POLITICAL ZONE 291 List of Acronyms 293 List of Maps 294 List of Tables 295 Executive Summary 296 Section One: Introduction and Historical Background 298 Section Two: Methodology 300 Section Three: Conflict Case Studies 302 Abia State 302 Anambra State 304 Ebonyi State 305 Enugu State 307 Imo State 309 Section Four: Causes and Analysis of Conflict 313 Section Five: Impacts of Conflicts 327 Section Six: Responses/Interventions 328 Section Seven: Conclusions 331 Section Eight: Recommendations 334 References 334 SOUTH-SOUTH GEO-POLITICAL ZONE 337 List of Acronyms 339 List of Tables/Maps/Plates/Figures 341 Executive Summary 342 Methodology 349 Background to Conflicts in South-South Zone 350 Responses/Interventions 362 Conclusion 366 Recommendations 371 Conflict Case Studies 374 Akwa Ibom State 375 Bayelsa State 385 Cross River State 391 Delta State 397 Edo State 411 Rivers State 426 References 433 SOUTH-WEST GEO-POLITICAL ZONE 439 List of Acronyms 441 List of Maps 442 Executive Summary 443 Section One: Introduction and Historical Background 446 Section Two: Methodology 447 Section Three: Conflict/Peace Case Studies 449 2016 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA: CONSOLIDATED AND ZONAL REPORTS " 7 Ekiti State 449 Lagos State 452 Ogun State 461 Ondo State 476 Oyo State 486 State of Osun 491 Section Four: Causes and Analysis of Conflict 498 Section Five: Impact of Conflict 508 Section Six: Responses/Interventions 510 Section Seven: Conclusions 513 Section Eight: Recommendations 514 References 515 Bibliography 521 Specimen of Standard Survey Questionnaire 539 Specimen of Standard SCA Reporting Format 542 Index 543 8 " 2016 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA: CONSOLIDATED AND ZONAL REPORTS Foreword Professor Oshita O. Oshita, fspsp Director-General Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Abuja Since her independence in 1960, Nigeria has experienced different types of violent conflicts that have negatively impacted on the country’s population across the six geopolitical zones. As expected, peace and security have been badly undermined by the episodic, yet recurring conflict disorders causing harm, displacement and even death. Apart from violent community conflicts, the insurgency caused by the Boko Haram extremist islamic sect in northern Nigeria; the militancy in the Niger Delta region; the increasing incidences of farmers-herders’ violent clashes; the spate of kidnappings and violent robberies, there are also incidences of cultism and separatist agitations that have often turned violent. These conflicts, no doubt, portend harmful consequences for the country’s cultural and social values; ethnic cohesion; social integration, stability and sustainable development. It is against this backdrop that a number of measures are adopted by the government to understand and deal with the phenomenon of dysfunctional conflicts in Nigeria. One of these is the Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA). This edition, being the fourth since the 2002 assessment, provides accurate and updated data on the violent conflicts in Nigeria. This SCA contains field data and analyses, including conflict prevention and management strategies for government, institutions and communities at various levels. In order to link research to policy and action, the 2016 SCA is accompanied by a National Action Plan (NAP), which focuses on multi-actor partnerships for peacebuilding and conflict regulation in Nigeria. We sincerely acknowledge and thank the UNDP and NSRP for their financial and technical support for the conduct of this 2016 SCA study. We particularly thank Dr. Zebulon Takwa, Mr. Matthew Alao, Mr. Adam Bergman (all from UNDP), Dr. Ukiwo Ukoha and Mr. Bashiru Olasupo (from the NSRP). The Institute is grateful to Professor Olusegun Matanmi, Professor Yohanna Gandu, Professor Umaru Pate, Dr. Naomi Akpan-Ita, Professor Hassan Saliu, Dr. Lazarus Saale; Professor Habu Galadima, Dr. Gbemisola Animasawun; Professor Carol Arinze-Umobi, Dr. Aliyu Ahmed Hameed, Dr. Abubakar Muazu and Professor Aisha Abdul-Isma’il who served as consultants to the project. Special thanks to Professor Olusegun Matanmi, Professor Yohanna Gandu and Dr. Gbemisola Animasawun for drafting the Consolidated Report and the editorial work they did on the Zonal Reports. I commend the efforts of my colleagues Dr. Bakut Bakut, Mr. Gabriel Jiya, Mr. Peter Opara, Professor Edde Iji, Mr. Sam Abi, Mr. Emmanuel Mamman, Mr. Manshop Garba, 2016 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA: CONSOLIDATED AND ZONAL REPORTS " 9 Ms Grace Awodu, Dr. Bosede Awodola, Mr. Adejoh Haruna, Mr. Mang Chaimang and Ms Adaeze Uju Oguike for the complementary roles they played in editing the draft reports. Mr. Emmanuel Mamman is specially acknowledged for coordinating and managing this project with admirable resilience. Let me also thank all other colleagues at the Institute who played individual or group roles during the various stages of this SCA. I am convinced that government, development partners, civil society groups and communities will find the 2016 SCA and the accompanying NAP useful in responding to the palpable challenges that violent conflict and insecurity pose in Nigeria today. The National Action Plan (NAP) which is an addendum document to this report draws attention to the need for specific actions by all stakeholders in strengthening early warning and conflict prevention infrastructure in the country. IPCR will continue to lead research and practice that will ultimately see Nigeria become a more peaceful and secure country for everyone irrespective of geography, creed or ethnicity. 10 " 2016 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA: CONSOLIDATED AND ZONAL REPORTS List of Acronyms ANSA Armed Non-State Actors BCDA Border Communities Development Agency CVE Countering Violent Extremism DSS Department of State Services EWERS Early Warning and Early Response System EWS Early Warning System FCT Federal Capital Territory FGD Focus Group Discussion FGN Federal Government of Nigeria FOI Freedom of Information GDP Gross Domestic Product HR Human Resource IDP Internally Displaced Person IMF International Monetary Fund IPCR Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution IPOB Indigenous People of Biafra J/ACI Judicial/Administrative Commission of Inquiry JCI Judicial Commission of Inquiry KII Key Informant Interview