Current Realities and Future Possibilities in Burma/Myanmar: Perspectives from Asia March 2010 In the fall of 2009, the Asia Society established a Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Burma/ Myanmar to examine the shift in the United States’ approach to its relations with the country and to formulate a set of recommendations aimed at promoting the country’s long-term stability. To bring a regional perspective to this effort, the Society sponsored a series of national dialogues that were carried out by leading institutes throughout the Asian region with the aim of reviewing current approaches to Burma/Myanmar and thinking through policy options going forward. In addition to the work carried out by our partner institutes listed below, a review of Chinese policy was conducted by leading experts and academics in China. The resulting collection of reports, entitled Current Realities and Future Directions in Burma/Myanmar: Perspectives from Asia, provides a comprehensive overview of current regional policy toward Burma/Myanmar and offers a rich compendium of policy ideas for regional and international actors. These reports and other online resources are available at: AsiaSociety.org/BurmaMyanmarReport. PARTNERS Macquarie University, Australia Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia Japan Institute of International Affairs Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines Singapore Institute of International Affairs Institute of Security and International Studies, Thailand AsiaSociety.org/BurmaMyanmarReport Table of Contents Foreword . 2 Introduction . 4 Current Dimensions, Future Directions: Australian Policy toward Burma .............. 9 Assessing the Current Situation in Myanmar: A Perspective from China . 24 From Isolation to Engagement: Reviewing India’s Policy toward Myanmar . 35 The Quest for the “Middle Way”: Indonesian Perspectives on Current Developments in Myanmar . 49 Japan’s Policy toward Myanmar: A Special Responsibility . 57 Pragmatic Diplomacy: Reviewing International and Malaysian Policy toward Myanmar ..........................................................75 Developing an International Policy toward Burma/Myanmar: Philippine Perspectives...........................................................82 From Proxy to Principle: A Review of Singapore’s Myanmar Policy . .90 Thailand’s Burma/Myanmar Dilemma: Domestic Determinants and Regional/International Constraints . 101 Appendix 1: Executive Summary: Report of the Asia Society Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Burma/Myanmar . 109 Appendix 2: Map of Burma/Myanmar .............................................119 1 FOREWORD Foreword Over recent years, political and socioeconomic conditions inside Burma/Myanmar have steadily deteriorated. Military leaders continue to govern the country in a highly authoritarian manner, suppressing domestic political opposition to its rule and committing human rights violations. Today, Burma/Myanmar stands as one of the least developed countries in the world, a result of widespread corruption and the mismanagement of the economy by the government. In short, the daily life of the average citizen in Burma/Myanmar is characterized by grinding poverty, declining health standards, and abysmal humanitarian conditions. While there is widespread recognition within the international community that Burma/ Myanmar is desperately in need of political and economic reform, a consensus has yet to emerge regarding how best to approach the country to encourage meaningful change. In fact, some observers believe that the situation has been exacerbated by conflicting signals and uncoordinated policy responses from regional and international actors. As the government of Burma/Myanmar prepares to adopt a new and disputed constitution and convene a general election in 2010, the Asia Society thought it would be useful to partner with institutions from across the Asia-Pacific region to review the current state of play from their unique national perspectives. To this end, the Society launched this project—Current Realities and Future Directions in Burma/Myanmar: Perspectives from Asia—and sponsored a series of national dialogues that were carried out by leading institutes in countries throughout the Asian region, including Macquarie University, Australia; the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations; the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia; the Japan Institute of International Affairs; the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia; the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines; the Singapore Institute of International Affairs; and the Institute of Security and International Studies, Thailand. In addition to these institutional contributions, a review of Chinese policy was conducted by experts and scholars in China working in their individual capacities. Each team brought together experts to review and assess their government’s current policies toward Burma/Myanmar and to discuss future directions and policy options. The analyses and policy recommendations in each report represent the views of their participants and authors. In connection with this regional effort, the Asia Society established a Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Burma/Myanmar, co-chaired by General (Ret.) Wesley Clark and former USAID Administrator Henrietta Fore, to assess the Obama administration’s new approach to the country and to foster an exploration of ways forward. The Executive Summary of the Task Force’s report, which outlines the group’s main conclusions and recommendations, is appended at the end of this document. All of the reports and other related information are available at the project’s Web page at AsiaSociety.org/BurmaMyanmarReport. 2 FOREWORD On behalf of the Asia Society, I would like to express deep appreciation to our partners in this effort: Sean Turnell, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Macquarie University; Zhai Kun, Director, Division for Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations; Rajiv Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, and Santosh Kumar, Senior Consultant, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations; Yoshiji Nogami, President, and Nao Shimoyachi, Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs; Rizal Sukma, Executive Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia; Tan Sri Mohamed Jawhar Hassan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malyasia; Carolina Hernandez, Founding President and Chair, and Herman Joseph Kraft, Executive Director, Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines; Simon Tay, Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Affairs; and Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Director, Institute of Security and International Studies, Thailand. We are grateful to them and to all who participated for the amount of time and intellectual energy they dedicated to this effort. I also wish to thank my colleagues at the Asia Society who contributed to this project, particularly Society President Vishakha Desai and Executive Vice President Jamie Metzl. Special thanks are due to the unflagging efforts of Robert W. Hsu, the Society’s Senior Program Officer for Policy Studies, who ensured that the project ran smoothly and guided the reports through their final stages and publication. We also are indebted to Priscilla Clapp for providing indispensable advice along the way. This project was made possible by the generous support of the Open Society Institute and Asia Society Trustee Leon Black. We hope that the views, ideas, and policy recommendations presented in these reports will provide valuable insights to the governments of Asia, the United States, and beyond, international and regional organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and all who are interested in improving conditions in Burma/Myanmar. Suzanne DiMaggio Director of Policy Studies, Asia Society 3 INTRODUCTION Introduction In the fall of 2009, the Asia Society established a Task Force on U.S. Policy toward Burma/ Myanmar to examine the shift in the United States’ approach to its relations with the country and to formulate a set of recommendations aimed at promoting the country’s long-term stability. To bring a regional perspective to this effort, the Asia Society partnered with leading policy institutes in countries throughout Asia—including Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—and each institute carried out a review of its government’s national policy toward Burma/Myanmar and prepared a report outlining its findings and recommendations. The resulting collection of reports, entitled Current Realities and Future Directions in Burma/Myanmar: Perspectives from Asia, provides a comprehensive overview of current regional policy toward Burma/Myanmar and comprises a rich compendium of policy ideas for both regional and international actors.1 Similarities in the assessments of Burma/Myanmar’s internal situation can be found across the reports. All note that the political and economic conditions in the country today are in a deplorable state as a result of poor governance. Moreover, there is general agreement that “Myanmar cannot move forward without complete political reform, economic development, and social transformation,” as conveyed by the report from China. Most of the