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************G********************************* * Reproductions Supplied by EDRS Are the Best That Can Be Made * from the Original Document DOCUMENT RESUME CE 052 195 TITLE Employment in the Year 2000: A Candid Look at Our Future. Hearings before the Subcommittee on Investment, Jobs, and Prices of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, One Hundredth Congress, Second Session (April 11, 12, 18, and 19, 1988). INSTITUTION Joint Economic Committee, Washington, D.C. REPORT NO Senate-Hrg-100-728 PUB DATE Apr 88 NOTE 452p. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. PUB TYPE Legal/Legislative/Regulatory Materials (090) Viewpoints (120) EDRS PRICE MFO1 /PC19 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Demography; *Educational Needs; Elementary Secondary Education; Emp.,.yees; *Employment Potential; *Employment Proj ctions; Females; *Futures (of Society); Hearing.1; Illiteracy; Inservice Education; Job Skills; Job Training; Labor Market; *Labor Needs; Minority Groups; Unemployment IDENTIFIERS Congress 100th ABSTRACT This document reports the oral and written testimony of a large number of witnesses who testified at Congressional hearings in April 1988 on the topic of employment by the year 2000. The ':^ur days of hearings were convened to assess the nation's ability to respond adequately to the changes in domestic labor markets, projected employment opportunities, increased international trade competition, and projected skill deficits in the labor force through the year 2000. The testimony showed that this nation must use its collective resources to invest in the technical competency and intellectual capacity of its people. Economists, labor industry experts, academicians, local government officials, and representatives from varied public interest groups had one principal concern: that the employment prospects of a large share of the future labor force are seriously threatened with too few and inadequate training opportunities, a decline in low-skilled jobs, illiteracy, criminal activity, drugs, and a growing underclass. Testimony showed that by the year 2000, the pool of potential workers will be mostly composed of persons who lack basic job readiness skills and meaningful commitments to the labor force. Finally, according to the witnesses, the United States will face an unprecedented socioeconomic challenge. The country must enable itself to step forward toward the cutting edge of technological and economic change. It can do that only with sound investments in education and training. (KC) *************************************g********************************* * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made * from the original document. *************************************g********************************* S. HRG. 100-728 14-3 EMPLOYMENT IN THE YEAR 2000: ACANDID LOOK AT OUR FUTURE HEARINGS BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON INVESTMENT, JOBS, AND PRICES OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION APRIL 11, 12, 18, AND 19, 1988 Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U S OEPARDAENT OF EDUCATION (:),Ne of Ed.,cat.ohatResea,o andimprovement EDCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTERiERICi Torsdacc.mentoas been foomoucedas ,eCered from the person or ofganaat,On OfTnatng C fAnC, cnanges have been made to "hfOve teh,oduchon quality P0,1 s of v+ew Or Op.n,ons stated ,n lhrs doCtr men, do not neceSsafoy teDresenl °Moat OERI hoShen Of 001,Cy U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE kn 86-034 WASHINGTON : 1988 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congressional Sales Office US. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 BEST COPY AVAILABLE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to sec. Nat Public Law 304. '79th Congress) SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, California DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts JOHN MELCHER, Montana JAMES H. SCHEUER, New York JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK, California WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware STEPHEN J. SOLARZ, New York STEVE SYMMS, Idaho CHALMERS P. WYLIE, Ohio OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine ALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York PETE WILSON, California HAMILTON FISH, JR., New York J. ALEX McMILLAN, North Carolina JUDITH DAVISON, Ex %take Director RICHARD F KAUFMAN, Gene al Counsel STEPHEN QUICK, Chief Economist ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Minority AssistantDirector SUBCO'sIMITTEE ON INVESTMENT, JOBS,AND PRICES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SENATE AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, California, Chairman EDWARD M. NENNEDY, ?J-achusetts STEPHEN J. SOLARZ, New York PAUL S SARBANES, Maryl- .d HAMILTON FISH, Ju., New York ALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York STEVE SYMMS, Idaho (ID 3 !, , 4. Foreword By Congressman Aagustus F. Hawkins, Chairman, Subcommittee on Investment, Jobs, and Prices In the years ahead quality must be the central goal of our labor force. Workers must be trained and have the skills necessary to produce top-quality goods and services. To borrow a slogan made popular by a leading automobile manufacturer, "quality must come first." But as evidenced in hearings held by the Joint Economic Committee's Subcommittee on Investment, Jobs, and Prices, which I chair, America is not making the serious investments in educa- `ion, training, and employment initiatives necessary to upgrade -4 prepare our labor force. Jn April 11, 12, 18, 19 of 1988 the Subcommittee held hearings on the topic of "Employment in the Year 2000: A Candid Look at Our Future." The four days of hearings were convened to assess this nation's ability to adequately respond to the changes in domes- tic labor markets, projected employment opportunities, increased international trade competition, and projected skill deficits in the labor force through the year 2000. The Subcommittee heard testi- mony from witnesses on what is really happening to America's labor force. Our labor fo.ce must be better trained to adapt to pro- jected changes in the types of jobs, and the varied skill demands which new jobs will require. Moreover, the hearings offered an op- portunity to focus national policy on the importance of making long-term and lasting investments in our labor force. The testimony offered during the four days of hearings was quite compelling. By most accounts, this nation must use its collective re- sourcesFederal, State, local, and privateto invest in the techni- cal competency and intellectual capacity of its people. Economists, labor industry experts, academicians, local government officials and representatives from varied public interest groups came before the Subcommittee with one principal concern. that the employ- ment prospects of a large share of the future labor force are seriously threatened with too few and inadequate training opportunities, a decline in low-skilled jobs, illiteracy, criminal activity, drugs, and a growing underclass. As a longtime participant in the national policy debate on educa- tion, training, and employment, I am troubled by the employment rJrecasts on the labor market prospects into the year 2000. By the 2000, demographics on .1.-:ose entering the labor force indicate that the pool of potential v,....k .rs will be mostly composed of individ- uals who lack basic job readiness skills, and meaningful commit- ments to the labor force. Domestic labor markets are expected to experience an even greater demand for individuals who are literate, have a greater command of the basic computation and communication skills, and individuals who take personal pride in producing products of qual- ity. Business, corporate, industrial, and governmental entities will (III) IV be even more reluctant to accept workers who lack a minimum level of skills and productive attitudes. Thus, the projected changes in office technology, industrial automation, and international com- petition dictate an upgrading in the capabilities and skill competen- cies of the labor force. The U.S. Department of Labor in its "Projections 2000" and the Hudson Institute's "Workforce 2000" studies, forecast that the Nation may face a difficult period of adjustment. Should a projected highly unskilled and functionally illiterate labor force be permitted to come to fruition, it will cause a crisis in the American labor force and the economy. These projections could lead to a labor market nightmare, unless targeted, effective, and market oriented investments are made to educate and train America's labor force. The current skills and capabilities of our labor force will fall short of the sophisticated and market-driven challenges of the 21st century. The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Hudson Institute's studies both project the civilian labor force to grow more slowly in the future than it has over the past two dec- ades. This lower growth will be due largely to the fact that fewer persons were born during the 1960's and 1970's. Consequently, fewer persons will reach the age of labor market entry in the coming years. The studies also indicate that three central trends will continue into the next century. First, manufacturing jobs will be a much smaller share of the U.S. economy in the year 2000 than it is today. Service industries will create most of the wealth over the next 12 years. Second, the labor force will grow slowly, becoming older, more female, and more disadvantaged. Over 15 percent of the new entrants to the labor force over the next 12 years will be native white males, compared to 47 percent currently in that category. Third, the new jobs in service industries
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