Pakuwon Jati
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Indonesia Company Guide Pakuwon Jati Version 8 | Bloomberg: PWON IJ | Reuters: PWON.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 29 Oct 2018 HOLD Consistent earnings growth Last Traded Price ( 26 Oct 2018): Rp478 (JCI : 5,784.90) Price Target 12-mth: Rp520 (9% upside) (Prev Rp610) Higher revenue from both development and investment properties. Pakuwon Jati (PWON) booked 3Q18 earnings of Analyst Rp651bn (+24% y-o-y, +15% q-o-q), supported by higher Victor STEFANO +6221 3003 4934 [email protected] revenue from both development property (+38.5% y-o-y, + 5.8% q-o-q) and investment property (+19.1% y-o-y, +8.4% q- What’s New o-q). Despite foreign exchange (forex) losses of Rp284bn, PWON’s 9M18 earnings came in at Rp1.78tr which was above Booked 3Q18 earnings of Rp651bn, in line with our estimates but above consensus consensus estimates (82% of FY18F) but in line with ours (76% of FY18F). Higher revenue from development and investment Where we differ: Maintain HOLD. Despite the strong properties earnings delivery, we maintain our HOLD call since the property sector lacks positive near term catalysts. Secured 65% of its FY18 pre-sales target in 9M18 Improvement in pre-sales among property Maintain HOLD with lower TP of Rp520 Potential catalyst. developers could change investor sentiment on PWON. The company’s new project in Bekasi, which is expected to launch next year, could serve as PWON`s re-rating catalyst. Price Relative Valuation: We maintain our HOLD call with a lower TP of Rp520 as we take into account further rupiah depreciation and raise our risk-free rate to 8.6% (from 8.0%). Our TP is derived by applying 27% discount to our RNAV of Rp716 which is at -1SD from its five-year average to take into account uncertainties in the 2019 presidential election and a prolonged property Forecasts and Valuation demand recovery . FY Dec (Rpbn) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Revenue 4,841 5,718 6,201 7,238 EBITDA 2,593 3,160 3,552 4,028 Key Risks to Our View: Pre-tax Profit 2,057 2,406 2,984 3,496 USD depreciation and higher interest rate Net Profit 1,671 1,873 2,336 2,752 USD debt and construction costs (especially for high-rise Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 1,645 2,067 2,530 2,946 projects) have exposed PWON to forex risks. A higher interest Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 6.9 25.7 22.4 16.5 rate environment might also translate into lower property EPS (Rp) 34.7 38.9 48.5 57.1 EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 34.1 42.9 52.5 61.2 demand. EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 7 26 22 16 Diluted EPS (Rp) 34.7 38.9 48.5 57.1 At A Glance Net DPS (Rp) 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Issued Capital (m shrs) 48,160 BV Per Share (Rp) 180 214 258 311 Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 23,020 / 1,517 PE (X) 13.8 12.3 9.9 8.4 Major Shareholders (%) PE Pre Ex. (X) 14.0 11.1 9.1 7.8 P/Cash Flow (X) 10.2 9.3 10.0 7.1 Burgami Investment Ltd 20.9 EV/EBITDA (X) 10.9 8.7 7.5 6.2 Pakuwon Arthaniaga 16.8 Net Div Yield (%) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Concord Media Investment 7.4 P/Book Value (X) 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 Free Float (%) 47.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.3 0.2 0.1 CASH 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.92 ROAE (%) 21.0 19.7 20.5 20.1 ICB Industry : Financials / Real Estate Earnings Rev (%): 0 7 6 Consensus EPS (Rp): N/A 45.7 51.1 Other Broker Recs: B: 21 S: 0 H: 4 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVI, Bloomberg Finance L.P ed: KK`/ sa: MA, CW, CS Company Guide Pakuwon Jati WHAT’S NEW Consistent earnings growth In line 3Q18 earnings Valuation Pakuwon Jati (PWON) booked 3Q18 earnings of Rp651bn We maintain our HOLD call with a lower TP of Rp520 as we (+24% y-o-y, +15% q-o-q), supported by higher revenue from take into account further rupiah depreciation and raise our both development property (+38.5% y-o-y, + 5.8% q-o-q) and risk-free rate to 8.6% (from 8.0%). Our TP is derived by investment property (+19.1% y-o-y, +8.4% q-o-q). Despite applying 27% discount to our RNAV of Rp716 which is at - forex losses of Rp284bn, PWON 9M18 earnings came in at 1SD from its five-year average to take into account Rp1.78tr which was above consensus estimates (82% of uncertainties related to the 2019 presidential election and a FY18F) but in line with ours (76% of FY18F). prolonged property demand recovery. Continuous growth of investment property PWON investment properties continue to support its top line by contributing 49% of 3Q18 revenue. PWON booked PWON recurring revenue (Rp bn) investment property revenue of Rp902bn (+19.1% y-o-y, 1000 +8.4% q-o-q) which represents 15.3% compound annual 900 growth rate (CAGR) in the past three year. Despite lacking 800 new projects, 3Q18 the investment property segment still 15.3% CAGR 700 grew q-o-q on the back of rental adjustment at its Kota 600 Kasablanka mall, and the newly opened extension in 500 Tunjungan Plaza 6 and Pakuwon Mall. 400 300 New project launch next year 200 Despite the Anti Corruption Commission nailing several 100 conglomerates regarding licensing/permit issues recently, 0 PWON is expected to launch its new project located in Bekasi, 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 West Java, after the presidential election next year. The project will be a mixed use development which will contribute to Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVI higher development and investment property revenue if the project kicks in. PWON discount to RNAV band PWON secured 65% of its FY18 pre-sales target Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 PWON booked pre-sales of Rp611bn in 3Q18, bringing its -20% 9M18 pre-sales to Rp1.7tr (-5% y-o-y). 9M18 pre-sales formed -10% +2SD 65% and 70% of the company’s FY18 target and our FY18 0% forecast respectively. Condo sales continued to make up a +1SD 10% higher proportion of PWON’s pre-sales (Rp350bn) with the AVG launch of La Viz in Surabaya and ongoing sales from its Kota 20% Kasablanka condos. Landed residential units contributed 30% -1SD Rp250bn pre-sales in 3Q18, which was supported by its land 40% -2SD plot sales in Pakuwon City. 50% Surabaya continued to dominate PWON’s pre-sales, supported 60% by the recurring sales of landed residential projects in Pakuwon City and Grand Pakuwon, land plot sales in Pakuwon City, and Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBSVI the newly launched La Viz apartments. Kota Kasablanka apartment phase 2 (Angelo, Bella, Chianti) continued to dominate Jakarta pre-sales. Page 2 Company Guide Pakuwon Jati Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Rpbn) FY Dec 3Q2017 2Q2018 3Q2018 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 1,443 1,730 1,852 28.3 7.1 Cost of Goods Sold (607) (712) (743) 22.4 4.4 Gross Profit 836 1,018 1,109 32.6 8.9 Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (131) (135) (147) 11.9 9.2 Operating Profit 705 884 962 36.5 8.8 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 5.40 10.4 11.7 118.2 12.8 Associates & JV Inc (2.5) (4.2) (1.8) 27.1 (56.4) Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (24.9) (9.8) (37.4) (49.9) (280.6) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (20.7) (139) (107) (419.8) (22.8) Pre-tax Profit 662 741 827 24.9 11.6 Tax (90.2) (102) (106) 17.1 3.6 Minority Interest (47.6) (72.6) (70.2) (47.6) (3.4) Net Profit 524 566 651 24.2 15.0 Net profit bef Except. 545 706 759 39.2 7.5 EBITDA 705 884 962 36.5 8.8 Margins (%) Gross Margins 57.9 58.9 59.9 Opg Profit Margins 48.8 51.1 51.9 Net Profit Margins 36.3 32.7 35.2 Source of all data: Company, DBSVI Page 3 Company Guide Pakuwon Jati PWON RNAV summary PWON portfolio Stakes RNAV Investment Property 19,430 East Coast Center 100% 153 Tunjungan Plaza (I-IV) mall 100% 3,976 Tunjungan Plaza V mall 100% 659 Tunjungan Plaza VI mall 100% 746 Sheraton Hotel 100% 481 Tunjungan Plaza 4-star hotel 100% 376 Gandaria City 83% 2,361 Kota Kasablanka 100% 3,396 Gandaria 8 Office 83% 519 Kota Kasablanka Office 88 - Tower A (part leased) 100% 805 Kota Kasablanka Office 88 - Tower B (all leased) 100% 736 Gandaria 5-star hotel 83% 595 Supermal Pakuwon Indah - Phase 1 & Trade Center 67% 1,590 Supermal Pakuwon Indah - Phase 2 & 3 67% 1,193 Supermal Pakuwon Indah - Phase 4 67% 232 Royal Plaza Mall 50% 451 Somerset Berlian 67% 162 Blok M Plaza 67% 461 Ascott Residence 67% 181 Pullman 5 star hotel 67% 199 Ibis 3-star hotel 67% 158 Development properties & Landbank 16,071 Tunjungan V - The Peak 100% 159 Tunjungan VI - Apartment 100% 223 Tunjungan V - Pakuwon Center 100% 155 Tunjungan VI - Office 100% 271 Pakuwon City - Palm Beach 100% 985 Pakuwon City - Community 1 100% 1,559 Pakuwon City - Community 2 (+ remaining landbank) 100% 3,266 Grand Pakuwon 1 100% 911 Grand Pakuwon 2 (+ remaining landbank) 100% 2,199 Kota Kasablanka tower 3 100% 280 Kota Kasablanka tower 4 100% 285 Kota Kasablanka tower 5 100% 774 Gandaria office - expansion 83% 1,015 Kota Kasablanka office - expansion 100% 1,295 4.5ha landbank in TB Simatupang 70% 788 4.1ha landbank in Kota Kasablanka 100% 1,230 1.9ha landbank in Gandaria City 83% 394 Pakuwon Indah - 6 apartments 67% 282 Net Debt 1,024 RNAV 34,476 Fully Diluted Share base (bn) 48.2 Fully Diluted RNAV per share 716 Source: Company, DBSVI Page 4 Company Guide Pakuwon Jati Marketing sales (Rpbn) CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Critical Factors Large portion of recurring revenue from investment properties PWON generated 50% of its consolidated revenue from investment properties, mostly retail malls.