Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. o resad2 ieetseiso h UN(nentoa no o h osraino aueand Nature of Conservation the for Union (International IUCN shift the centroid on which population species species, and migratory change different of habitat 23 distributions the and the evaluated orders in we changes study, 7 the this for to In related biodiversity. be harms to irreparably shown been has changes Climate Academy Abstract: Chinese and Resources China Water P.R. of 430079, Ministry Wuhan, Hydroecology, Sciences, of of Institute Resources, Water of Ministry c China P.R. 410082, Changsha tion, b a change China:habitat in Zhu birds migratory Liang of Jie distribution shift Our future. the in centroid on birds. species population migratory protecting climate and for of changing prerequisite survival changes a the of the is for which to Impacts conditions distribution lead adverse species will more in centroid change in population climate in resulting of shift process, role and migration adverse area the of habitat proves distance suitable study and in decline time The the in (alt). altitude is China northern Liang shift Jie centroid birds population migratory and of change distribution China:habitat the in on climate changing of Impacts niiulseisi h td ilmv vr5 madalteseiswl oetwrst lcswt ihrsiaiiy For suitability. the higher of with places Most t to towards is species. move every birds will migratory for species different for the difficult all constraint are and be centroid the km will China, population 50 which of of over km future, move 50 whole distance in will about the and 3% study moving over direction the decreases habitat decrease in The and of will species RCP2.6, centroid birds survive. individual the population migratory to under the of China birds with suitability in migratory scenario, the area RCP8.5 for Furthermore, habitat under losing average. total basin China on of River in 3% northeast Pearl area over to and from habitat decreases habitat total birds habitat suitable of suitable migratory of 10% of 9.74% of about area losing spatial List The basin striking Red River found species habitat. We Yangtze different Resources) of with model. 23 geography, 13% Natural (MaxEnt) in and and method suitability Entropy orders Nature Maximum the 7 by in of century for variation harms Conservation (2041-2700) shift irreparably mid-21st the centroid which to current for population species, in migratory Union and 2014-2017 of change (International distributions habitat IUCN the the the in evaluated changes on we the study, to this related In be to biodiversity. shown been has changes Climate Abstract 2020 5, May 2 1 Zhu Ziqian and olg fEvrnetlSineadEgneig ua nvriy hnsa408,PR China P.R. 410082, Changsha University, Hunan Engineering, and Science Environmental of College ffiito o available not Affiliation University Hunan e aoaoyo niomna ilg n olto oto HnnUiest) iityo Educa- of Ministry University), (Hunan Control Pollution and Biology Environmental of Laboratory Key e aoaoyo clgclIpcso yrui-rjcsadRsoaino qai csse of Ecosystem Aquatic of Restoration and Hydraulic-Projects of Impacts Ecological of Laboratory Key a,b a,b* 1 uu Peng Yuhui , uu Peng Yuhui , 1 a,b 1 el Xing Wenle , el Xing Wenle , a,b 1 ioogLi Xiaodong , ioogLi Xiaodong , i.Tedmnn aibei otes hn sNV,adthe and NDVI, is China southeast in variable dominant The min. 1 a,b 1 igYan Ming , igYan Ming , a,b 1 ui Yuan Yujie , ui Yuan Yujie , c i Li Xin , 2 i Li Xin , a,b Ziqian , 1 , Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. it(oa aeoo 07.I h td eepoe h urn itiuinadtediesby drivers the and distribution current the species explored the we red build IUCN , to the study data on the level climate In 2019). different scale al., in national et 2017). 23species Saupe China and Kanemoto, 2019; birds and & al., migratory data et (Moran data of sample Roberts climate list 7orders 2019; with bird for al., combing combined models(SDMs) et model we distribution Jacome distribution MaxEnt study, 2017; species al., (Saupe this the the level et in In demonstrated geographical (Finch used the of al.(2019) feasible widely at pattern be is et birds to data distribution of Saupe proved presence distribution potential and the The the means. in to 2019). changes on important meaningful al., the evaluating change et an is for climate change become well of performed climate has model 2011). effect and model Sgro, the distribution research & understand species Hoffmann species, To 2016; between al., al., et correlation biodiversity. et of (Beringer the protect Dugger conservation effects 2018; biodiversity on the al., for research identify needs et to Theoretical urgent Cohen help done the 2010; can been of variables al., climate one has et is major research Both the which of 2011; little of identification policies, reason evidence, Better effective the climate of establish distribution. confirmed the lines to species mismatches al.(2011) these on phenology al., et variables Despite migration et Saino climate rich their communities Wilson individual 2019). 2011). that of 2018; birds al., al., was al., insectivorous period et birds et et (Bowler European migratory the (Saino Kentie insect European that and 2007; as of trend al., same time decline the general the et population that feeding the be Jetz makes the to 2019; corroborated change confirmed between al., al.(2019) Climate was et match et Fecchio to 2011). the Bowler 2019; al., leads keep al., et 2019). 2018),which et hardly Saino (Bowler Bemmels, birds 2018; resources & environmental al., migratory food suitable Title et of region’s (Keogan 2019; the cycle range Wyckhuys, damages growth geographic change & their Climate (Sanchez-Bayo in correlated 2017). species distribution closely change al., was habitat certain et birds between al., (Brawn tropical for correlation et of rainfall conditions (Roberts population the in the reason studying climate that the the in al.(2017)illustrated explain assessed to et not progress al.(2019) Brawn did great et but change. made years Roberts climate how have 46 and lot. in studies understand a population Previous changed to and has regimes critical 2019). habitat spatial and is avian declined of It have change 2014). formulating the populations al., 2018). bird and et decades, biodiversity Vickery al., ecological past 2019; protecting et of In Yalcin al., for absence Keogan 2019; 2018; et climate the al., 2016; (Northrup al., changing and et policies the al., et imbalance Wilson effective under et Mammola ecological 2018; the changes al., the Hewson 2019; distribution et in al., 2018; spatial result Spooner et al., species 2011; will pressure Lehikoinen al., et 2019),which survival et 2007; al., (Cohen the Saino et al., function exacerbates Yu 2015; change et Spooner al., 2018; climate Jetz 2019; et Leroux, that Russell 2019; al., & is 2013; et al., decline al., (Ims et et abundance 1970 (Jacome Pearson the since birds of worldwide driver migratory dramatically Key of declined 2018). has al., birds et migratory of number The distribution species for in conditions change adverse climate Introduction future. more of in in role species resulting adverse protecting the process, for proves will migration prerequisite centroid study of population a Our distance in is whole birds. shift and which the and migratory time For area of the suitability. habitat survival study suitable in higher and the in the changes with decline direction in the places The The to to species (alt). towards lead individual altitude survive. move is is the will to China birds of birds northern migratory species birds the Most for migratory the migratory constraint all of the species. for and suitability China, every difficult km of the for 50 be Furthermore, different over RCP2.6, will move are the average. which will centroid under on centroid future, population China population northeast in of the in to with distance 3% area of scenario, km over RCP8.5 habitat 13% 50 decrease under total losing China about will of basin in in moving area 3% River suitability habitat over habitat Pearl total the decreases and of of in habitat 10% habitat variation about suitable suitable decreases spatial of of and century striking area 9.74% (2041-2700) found The losing mid-21st We to basin habitat. current River model. in Yangtze (MaxEnt) 2014-2017 with geography, from method birds Entropy migratory Maximum of by List Red Resourc t min h oiatvral nsuhatCiai DI and NDVI, is China southeast in variable dominant The . 2 Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. n ertraee(R pce(al 1.Telctoso irtr id ssoe nFig.1. we in showed data, categories is invalid IUCN birds duplicate different migratory of 23 species the locations vulnerable(VU) and deleting 9 The birds species, After S1). 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Data may be preliminary. al1Ls fvralsue nMxn modelling. MaxEnt in used variables of List Table1 correlated high Cloud removing after model(Table1) Data correlated Altitude the high remove Geospatial in variables( to retained bioclimate used the were ArcMap. was variables (PCCs) from 13 in Coefficient Moreover, Correlation S3) distance Model(DEM) Pearson variables(Table the Elevation Euclidian reasonable, result by Digital the make To calculated the was using planet( area protected by protected the compiled ( from to were were grid ( slope data each platform dataset and reserves NDVI of cloud The the distance data and environment dataset km. 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Fig. http://www.gscloud.cn i1 rcptto esnlt Ceceto Variation) of (Coefficient Seasonality Precipitation Month Driest of Precipitation Month Wettest of Precipitation Range Annual Temperature Isothermality bio15 Range Diurnal Mean bio14 Temperature Mean Annual bio13 bio7 bio3 bio2 bio1 Variables Abbreviation | r | > ). 0.8). 4 http://www.worldclim.org/ https://www.protectedplanet.net/ http://www.resdc.cn/ ih3 arc- 30 with ) iha with ) ). Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. utiaiiy. sustainability migratory scenarios where for centroid two population habitat in the distance the compared offset After of average future. centroid the X= in take population bias we the the , explain calculated to species 2019).We (Y) the latitude al., process of and movement et (X) population longitude Liu the in reflecting 2017; birds indicator al., represented gain.. the as et as habitat described (Collins regarded is was is opposite centroid It the population and scenarios. 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Data may be preliminary. irtr id n h nagrdbrswl ycekn h U au(al 1.Tecretand change. habitat current of the The orders influence climate 7 S1). how of Fig.S1. value(Table assessing in distribution AUC models shown of the the is Result simulated checking China 2. in models by Table birds well the of birds scenarios, distribution geographical endangered future potential two the future the and and birds current migratory the on Based aia an88 29 .113.27 29.97 8.41 19.00 818.98 141.02 12.93 17.41 85.31 14.69 8.82 11.04 7 805.73 154.27 for change habitat The RCP8.5 2011). under al., China et of Saino calculation Fig.S2. 2016; the area in with al., total shown accordance et of in decreases is and (Rushing Display birds 1.74% area RCP2.6 decrease migratory 2. suitable and in 83.93 Fig of will 16.07 the scenario China in orders area climate, shown RCP2.6 of habitat In is current under area future the the China. in China total results, with of transformation of of Compared habitat area area 16.07% The total RCP8.5. are total scenario. of in area of 16.43% China suitable for 0.36% of accounts the by area climate of total current percentage of the 802.18 157.73 the 14.69% in scenario, birds future migratory the of area suitable The 83.56 16.43 gain Habitat loss Habitat Unsuitable Suitable 1. pta hne fhbttadtesito ouaincentroid population of shift the and habitat of changes Spatial Results urn urn C26RP. C85RCP8.5 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP2.6 Current (%) Percentage Current ra(10 Area 4 km 2 ecnae()Ae (10) Area (%) percentage ) 6 (10 4 km 2 ) ecnae()Ae (10 Area (%) percentage 4 km 2 ) Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. nti td,tersac otn f7odr fmgaoybrsrvae novosba rn nthe birds. in migratory (Fig.S3). et of trend future (Pacifici situation in altitudes bias shift higher decline obvious The to the the an habitats shown to 3. potential moved Table is revealed their will suitability birds from centroid mean move population migratory The will entire of birds 2017). the migratory al., scenarios, orders the climate 7 all future and of In northeast, content habitat. of research centroid and the population province study, Zhejiang this province, Jiangsu In The including km (Fig.2). China, 5396 places rise southeast km some will 2970 the except area and in China habitat in The located common is province. is Shandong habitat habitat of of abatement gain The 12985km most loss Guangdong. will in province highest area Guangdong with habitat 19767km the Guangxi. province loss km province, in the will Hunan area 26,361 Region be habitat the Autonomous losing will including Zhuang with China, Hunan Guangxi southern future Hunan. province. the in unsuitable in Guangdong and loss located and suitable mainly between habitat Region most altitude is area Autonomous low habitat The with Zhuang of zone 2018). Guangxi loss boundary al., province most et the in (Bay The is change regions future areas. habitat suitable in of of change decrease qualitative statistics the to the show prone scenarios (b) future and for future models in Prediction change habitat (a)The 2. Fig. 2 nSadn province. Shandong in resSitdrcinSitdistance(km) Shift ANSERIFORMES direction PELECANIFORMES 51.01 Shift LARIFORMES CHARADRIIFORMES Northeast GRUIFORMES CICONIIFORMES PODICIPEDIFORMES birds migratory All Orders 2 conigfr2.4 ftecretttlhbttae in area habitat total current the of 20.74% for accounting otes 45.04 43.55 73.63 Northeast 52.74 Northeast 66.17 Northeast 24.88 Northeast 49.00 Northeast Northeast Northeast 7 2 nJagupoic,36 km 3460 province, Jiangsu in 2 2 conigfr1.0 ftecrettotal current the of 18.50% for accounting conigfr1.8 ftecrettotal current the of 11.78% for accounting 2 nZein province Zhejiang in Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. h niiulcnrbto fteevralscnb eni i 3a. rate. Fig contribution cumulative in the seen of be 82.05% can for variables accounted these importance NDVI variables 12.22% of and essential and contribution bio1 5 15.2%,18.64%,12.97% individual alt, the for The LUCC, of accounting The sum model, importance. 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Data may be preliminary. rtce ra.2 pce fdffrn nagrdlvlo h UNrdls eeue normdlto model our in used were current Fig.4. the list in between showed red comparison is IUCN The species the which habitat. of of 2017), on future distributions constructing al., the level future et and and and endangered Xu planning distribution situation different 2015; al., for potential al., of et current implications et the (Lehikoinen positive species Shen comprehend has areas 2011; 23 al., and protected et protection of areas. 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RCP8.5, living in 59.13%in the appropriate birds and is The contribution migratory RCP2.6 percent temperature of the combined in distribution The the In 53.59% the birds. that on are migratory birds. seen influence variables the of of be climate distribution area can all distribution current of It potential the the still affects for RCP8.5(Fig.3b). that is significance in factor variable great 31.17% The important of and birds(b) most were RCP2.6 of the factors distribution 5 scenarios, scenarios current the future different in indicated in variables variables result essential environment This 5 the of contribution of percentage contribution of percent comparison 3.(a)The Fig. 9 t min fwihtepretcnrbto s2.9 in 23.89% is contribution percent the which of , Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. a oeeswr.Temvmn fseismasta hi aiasaecmrse n h iigrisk living the and compressed latitudes are middle habitats at their latitudes distribution that high means Species at suitability. species distribution mean of VU movement in species rise. future, The decline general, VU In the eastward. In and move with change. 30.56% 10.82%. may future climate decreasing decreasing in southward suitability from suitability move mean effects mean may with adverse with EN southeast get southwest as to towards easily km future km and in 327.74 current move greatly the will change from Especially also distances some long will future. particular, move EN species in In and endangered offset southwest The huge centroids. to pop- a current crisis. The experienced survival the have centroid. the from species population in distances endangered the birds long critically from CR of migrate different. of detecting shift species is centroids by total distance most future population the offset of in the with centroids obviously and match different change ulation not scale is will small could species distribution in each and shifting Species of topography, birds, direction a the migratory local migration on of lot(Fig.5a, the The centroid direction a by population scale. migration The shift influenced country population centroids areas. easily birds’ small population are of for estimation the areas, effective Table.S4).The not also 2015). is at al., province but scale shown et greatly, Hebei large in Shen changed and species 2019; have Shangdong of al., in distributions abbreviation et distributed (Northrup the mainly distribution only are total Not with species consistent expand China, the middle-eastern All the of and CR future. distribution in of in change habitats reduction climate The distinct a area. and EN shown present habitat include are of current bird species distributions each their 9 the of maintain 56001km of comparing habitat will by distributions the species changed The depicts 8 have panel scenarios. species Each climate endangered future most MaxEnt. of by distributions identified The groups scenarios. different species the the on of based Habitat group 4. 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Data may be preliminary. i.5()Tesito h ouaincnri ntesial raad()ma utblt hneadthe and change suitability mean (b) and area suitable the in scenarios centroid different population in the change of habitat shift The 5.(a) Fig. 1. 11 Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. ilices otdaaial nteHah ie ais(i.) h rao aia osi h Yangtze the in loss habitat area of the area and The southern the 58880km (Fig.6). of 34589km basins mostly basins River decrease River reduce Huaihe Pearl will and the basin River in Yangtze River dramatically the most in of increase most constraint decline will will the area out habitat basins? figure The the to influence climate variables does important of How most contribution 4.1.1 the percent selected Yangtze regions. We Basin, different the considered. 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Data may be preliminary. n er ie ai.Tehmnatvt ly motn oei itiuino hs ein.Alt regions. these of distribution in role constraint important basin another a River Yellow is plays Basin, LUCC activity River human distribution. Haihe The 43.5% the in and respectively of basin. 49.1%, constraint importance River 48.6%, 19.6% the Pearl 43.9%, and is Basin is and 23.8% food Southeast distribution 30.9%, Basin, the for River for regions, contribution Huaihe accounting basin, environment these percent River the the In Yangtze which in of respectively. role Basin, contribution great River percent a Pearl plays the and NDVI and(b) that centroid shows result population The habitat of basins. shifts 6 The in (a) variables 7. Fig. 23.48 km, 25.33 km, 31.03 km, 34.26 move will km. Basin River 16.68 Huaihe and and km Basin Southeast Basin, River Yellow 13 Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. h itiuino h T ilmv oes hc scnitn ihMZ h ouaincnri in centroid towards km future. population 20.72 in The move area will MSZ. suitable MTZ with more in distribution consistent a The to is move km. which will move59.10 east will distribution MSZ The to and move south. km will 44.81 move STZ will the STZ zones of climate distribution different The in habitat of change 8.The Fig. km 27955 about 11.43% reduce will 61247km MTZ about significant of loss a area will km has 6499 habitat habitat habitat decrease of The The will area area future. The area. habitat MTZ). in habitat MSZ, zones (STZ, total climate zones 13.7%, MSZ 3 climate and these 3 the in 34.9% in decrease for mostly zones? change accounting climate habitats the basin The influence River change Pearl climate does and elevation. 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Fig. 15 Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. i.0 h oprsno auersre n utbeaesi China in areas suitable and reserves nature of comparison The Fig.10. it makes species endangered these of migration The environmentally effectively. differences rare. them more the protect is are compared to species species we human since these Endangered for areas birds, of difficult areas(Fig.10). protected migratory more population suitable of the the effectiveness the of and the and distribution sensitive reserves ensure the nature to and the difficult change between more climate is 2018c; not the al., It is et year. 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Data may be preliminary. msin(eigre l,21) lo h osriti otenCiai DI hc ugssta we that biodiversity. international protect suggests heavily to which is making together loss NDVI, carbon biodiversity unite emission is the last, should China reduce At carbon by earth to southern on range. The stable necessary countries in certain is relatively the a constraint it all China. within climate the critical so problem, floating whole Also, the birds, coverage a of forest in keep 2011). has keep distribution birds to should al., the change on of et necessary Climate influence (Beringer constraint is great emission the change. a it has is climate therefore, the rising Temperature combat control temperature birds, and to of policies. species taken distribution in this making be the expand for should on or region policies retain influence a Considering effective will choose year. the species can every changes Finally, the we risk and of species, demand. the species meet some individual face other to Also, even the from conditions our different may for environmental 2014). is and conditions to species al., scenarios, suitable According each et climate the of Pimm future migratory distribution distinguished. of The 2010; in species be population al., Many future. and et should future. in extinction(Pereira distribution birds rise in of will individual distribution decrease species and will on change clear. birds birds climate not of border whole are influence the take the of should research, areas protection guidelines these Which should the wide managements 2018a). a Thirdly, of is al., China kind et since between what (Liang reserves, zones and standards nature cross follow select and the areas to manage regulations mismatching policies to different of The protection difficult with different borders more protection. are country The it species there makes places. for Specifically, zones other spots areas. climate from blind these and isolated the in basins are are constraints province, reserves basins the among nature the of borders the and similarity that zones the is climate see China provinces, can in different We change to et fact climate protection. only The (Shen of for not regions. combined area impact different be species, the large should reduce of the regions to different protection in Secondly, policies the workers effective for take few to established distribution. to reserves also nature species be leads but The on must which the reserves, reserves. measures nature on China, nature of effective conservation focusing for in distribution establish Effective management development regions Liang main rational the speed 2018b; populated of 2 2015). al., high mismatches lack sparsely et are al., of the reserves birds(Liang the There is process for nature reason in space the second of the effective. locate in The reduce location not still will 2017). which is the is al., expansion, China et effect that urban the protective is 2019). and an the al., activities reason nature Firstly, economic of et but first area (Ma populations. 2000, The The birds bird since areas. migratory on protected lot this. change of a for establishment climate increases the reasons of on China impact based in the built be reserves about should views frame new regulatory as and effective some position scattered indicate are its results area of Our prevent 2011). probability eastern al., because and protection the high et birds reserves complex in broken(Sang a for the more areas also Strategy have manage is is protected 4.2.2 and them to east The between energy easily the connectivity population. save is in the dense can areas it and situation its broken, plain they thus, the and choose that However, center rare, to agriculture so is is tend effect. the birds successfully, population birds artificial of feed human Migratory distribution from western and the 2019). them of The to but al., regions protected fly China, et survival. different western the (Ma to in of in and China areas easily areas habitat of protected are protected of of eastern around of that distribution the position located areas The in the only birds large concentrated protected. is is migratory with mainly not area mismatch uneven, of are protected of very number habitats but is other large of Plain China The the lots River areas that are Yangtze Lake. suitable is there the Poyang the mismatch area, of and that of reaches Lake out One lower Dongting find and well. can the middle very we the match area, in protected not lives the do and reserves birds nature of and distribution current the Comparing 17 Posted on Authorea 12 Mar 2020 — CC BY 4.0 — https://doi.org/10.22541/au.158398104.48947306 — This a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. ugr .. osa,ED,Faki,AB,Dvs .. ht,GC,Shaz .. una,K.P., Andrews, Burnham, S.H., Ackers, C.J., D.A., Schwarz, Clark, G.C., L., Bailey, White, Jr., pp. P.F., R.J., Doherty, 3120, C.B., Davis, Yackulic, Vol. A.B., J.E., Hines, Franklin, Singer, J.D., Y. E.D., Nichols, ShaweTaylor, Forsman, entropy J. K.M., maximum regularized Dugger, (Eds.) for Proceedings, guarantees Theory, Performance Learning 2004. 472-486. generalized in: R.E. with Schapire, estimation. estimation S.J., density Research, Learning density Phillips, Machine M., entropy Of Dudik, Maximum Journal modeling. distribution 2007. species 1217-1260. R.E. to 8, application Schapire, an county-scale environmental S.J., and county-averaged using regularization Phillips, using from 6012-6022. or 7(15), M., bias size Evolution, of Dudik, and sample degree Ecology increasing the to overprediction? 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