Meredith Poll Report Spring 2018 Political Polarization

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

An in-depth examination of North Carolina voter attitudes in important current issues

Registered Voters in North Carolina

March 25-April 30, 2018

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Contents Key Survey Insights ...... 4 Satisfaction with the direction of the country ...... 4 Political Polarization ...... 4 How do people refer to parties and political ideologies? ...... 4 How polarized are we and where is the country going? ...... 5 Which party is more ...... 6 Do we need a third party? ...... 6 Topline Results ...... 7 Satisfaction with the way things are going in the country today ...... 7 Political Polarization ...... 7 What comes to mind when you hear the word “conservative”? (Top three responses) ...... 7 What comes to mind when you hear the word “liberal”? (Top three responses) ...... 7 What comes to mind when you hear the word “Republican”? (Top three responses) ...... 7 What comes to mind when you hear the word “Democrat”? (Top three responses) ...... 8 What is your view—do you think this country is more divided these days than in the past, or not?...... 8 And thinking about five years from now, do you think the country will be: ...... 8 Thinking about the political parties, please tell me if each of the phrases I read best describes the Democratic Party and its leaders, the Republican Party and its leaders, both, or neither...... 8 Is more extreme in its positions ...... 8 Can better manage the federal government...... 9 Is more concerned for the needs of people like me...... 9 Is more ethical and honest...... 9 In your view, do the Democratic and Republican parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third party is needed?...... 10 Sample Characteristics ...... 10 Cross-tabulations ...... 12 Direction of the country ...... 12 Political Polarization ...... 13 What comes to mind when you hear the word “Conservative”? ...... 13 What comes to mind when you hear the word “Liberal” ...... 16 What comes to mind when you hear the word “Republican”? ...... 19 What comes to mind when you hear the word “Democrat”? ...... 21

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

What is your view—do you think this country is more divided these days than in the part, or not? .... 24 And, thinking about five years from now, do you think the country will be: ...... 25 Thinking about the political parties, please tell me if each of the phrases I read best describes the Democratic Party and its leaders, the Republican Party and its leaders, both, or neither...... 26 Is more extreme in its positions...... 26 Can better manage the federal government...... 27 Is more concerned for the needs of people like me...... 28 Is more honest and ethical...... 29 In your view, do the Democratic and Republican parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third party is needed?...... 31 Poll Methodology ...... 33

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Key Survey Insights The Meredith College Poll conducted a mixed mode sample of North Carolinians (388 live caller respondents and 615 email respondents) to registered North Carolina voters from March 25- April 30, 2018. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3%. Satisfaction with the direction of the country North Carolinians are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. This finding is consistent across the state and among all of its demographic groups. Although Republicans (40.3 percent) are more satisfied with the direction of the country than Democrats (22.8 percent) or unaffiliated voters (30.4 percent), the mood of its citizens is decidedly negative. The only group in the state with a plurality more satisfied than dissatisfied is those with less than a high school diploma and even with this group their net satisfaction level is small (+3 percent). Although this finding is consistent with previous Meredith Poll results and those from other survey research organizations in North Carolina and around the country, the January 2018 Meredith Poll found that almost half of the people surveyed (47.7 percent) were satisfied with the direction of the state, as opposed to four-in-ten citizens (40 percent) who were dissatisfied. As respondents indicated, North Carolina was making progress economically and that its citizens were a major source of satisfaction. The respondents from the January survey, however, were less satisfied with elected officials and their ability to deal with major problems affecting citizens across North Carolina. Although transportation was not one of the top three issues that caused citizens to be dissatisfied with the direction of the state, over 30 percent of respondents identified it as a source of dissatisfaction.

Political Polarization Since the last time we asked these questions of registered voters in North Carolina (Spring 2017), North Carolinians have remained strongly divided over politics. Both the language used to discuss their own political beliefs and those of other than their own, as well as their attitudes about polarization, there is little evidence of the political divide affecting us lessening. How do people refer to parties and political ideologies? We asked respondents to use words or phrases to respond to common political philosophies (conservative and liberal) and the two major political parties in the country (Democrat and Republican). The most surprising finding, especially compared to the results to the same questions one year ago is that “Donald Trump” is now what most North Carolinians think about when responding to prompts for both conservatism and the Republican Party. The president’s name was the top response across all demographic groups to the question: what word or phrase comes to mind when you first hear (conservative or Republican)? Simply put, Donald Trump is now synonymous with the principle of conservatism and the Republican Party, despite

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018 relatively low approval ratings and a policy agenda that does not always follow modern conservative principles or recent Republican Party policy positions. The terms ”liberal” and “Democrats” created a greater diversity of responses from respondents. The plurality of North Carolinians associated the Democratic Party with the term “liberal,” with demographic groups that typically associate with progressive politics (e.g., African Americans, women, and younger citizens) often referring to liberals as “open-minded” more frequently than with the Democratic Party label. Likewise, demographic groups typically aligned with more conservative views often associated “Democrats” with the term “liberal,” but also used pejorative words like “crazy” with the political philosophy. The word “Democrat” also produced a diversity of responses from North Carolinians. Many associated the term with people such as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, but others, particularly Republicans and rural North Carolinians associated Democrats with “big spending” policies. Although the most frequently used terms to describe conservative, liberal, Democrat, and Republican were often politicians’ names or general characteristics, further analysis, particularly of the on-line responses reveal a highly polarized and, often, angry citizenry. When we divided the samples between those that responded to live calls and those who responded to the online survey, we found that the online respondents were more than twice as likely to use pejoratives to refer to the political philosophy or political party that was opposite of their own affiliation. Democrats often referred to conservatives and Republicans as “evil,” “assholes,” and worse, while Republicans used terms such as “crazy,” “socialists,” and “lazy welfare cheats” to refer to liberals and Democrats. We believe that people responding to our phone survey relied on social desirability and moderated their language, while people responding online used their social filters less frequently.

How polarized are we and where is the country going? The polarization reflected in the respondents’ language was also reflected in their responses to questions related to current and future political polarization. Over three-quarters of respondents felt that the country was more politically divided today than in the last, with only a very small portion of the sample (13%) indicating that the country was less divided. In comparison, in 2017, 86 percent of North Carolinians felt the country was more divided than in the past and only 3 percent felt that it was less divided. Almost three quarters of North Carolinians are pessimistic about the political divide lessening with 72 percent indicating that polarization will get worse or stay the same over the next five years. Only 13 percent felt that conditions would improve. This compares to about 60 percent of respondents in 2017 who thought political polarization would stay the same or get worse and 25 percent who thought it would improve.

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In our recent survey, all demographic groups indicated that political division was worse than in the past and all were pessimistic about political polarization in the future. The group, however, most pessimistic about the future of political polarization was younger citizens. Almost 50 percent of Millennial and Generation X citizens indicated that the political divide would be worse in five years, while there was more uncertainly among Baby Boomer and Silent Generation respondents. Our results indicate that North Carolinians are getting used to political division as a normal course of action. They reflect the actions of political leaders at the national and state levels who find little common ground and have all-but-abandoned political compromise as an option in dealing with public matters. Which party is more . . . As we did in 2017, we asked a series of question about which political party (Democratic or Republican): 1. Was more extreme; 2. Could better manage the federal government; 3.) Best represented the needs of people; and 4.) Was more honest and ethical. In general, North Carolinians were very divided over which party and its leaders are best. Not surprisingly, Democrats considered their party to be less extreme, better able to manage the federal government, more representative of the people, and most honest and ethical. Likewise, Republicans considered their party to be more positive than the Democratic Party and its leaders on the same characteristics. Unaffiliated voters were split fairly evenly across the parties in terms of the specific questions. The usual demographic groups—minority, urban, and younger respondents—stated that the Democratic Party and its leaders were less extreme, better managed the federal government, more reflected the needs of the people, and were more honest and ethical. Likewise, a predictable set of demographic groups—older and more rural citizens—stated that the Republican Party and its leaders were better on those governing traits and behaviors. The most surprising finding in the responses to this series of questions that was the gaps were smaller than anticipated. Democrats did not universally agree that their party was less extreme, managed the federal government better, best reflected the needs of its citizens, or were the most honest and ethical leaders. The results were similar for Republicans. On average, around 21 percent of all Democrats thought the Republican Party was less extreme, managed the federal government, better represented the needs of the people, and was more honest and ethical than their own party. Likewise, approximately 20 percent of Republicans thought the Democratic Party and its leaders fared better on the leadership characteristics than did their own party. Do we need a third party? Given the dissatisfaction levels of North Carolinians with the direction of the country and the results above showing relatively high levels of discontent with the political parties, there should

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018 be no surprise that a majority of respondents—over 56 percent—think that a viable third party would be good for the nation and state. Fewer than one-in-four North Carolinians think that the two major parties do a good job of representing the American people in government. Democrats and Republicans alike feel that a third party would improve how the needs of Americans would be reflected in governing. There are no demographic groups in the state in which the current two-party system is favored over a system in which there is a viable third party. In general, however, younger and more educated citizens favor an alternative to the current system at the highest rates with older and lower income respondents still supporting a third party alternative, but with rates of support less than 50 percent.

Topline Results Satisfaction with the way things are going in the country today All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today?

Response Number Percentage Satisfied 307 30.9% Dissatisfied 594 59.7% Don’t know 90 9.1% Refused 4 .4% N= 995 Political Polarization

What comes to mind when you hear the word “conservative”? (Top three responses) 1. Trump 2. Close-minded 3. Old What comes to mind when you hear the word “liberal”? (Top three responses) 1. Democrats 2. Open-minded 3. Crazy

What comes to mind when you hear the word “Republican”? (Top three responses) 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old

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What comes to mind when you hear the word “Democrat”? (Top three responses) 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending

What is your view—do you think this country is more divided these days than in the past, or not?

Response Number Percentage More political divided 757 77.6% Less politically divided 41 4.2% About the same 141 14.5% Don’t know 33 3.4% No answer/Refused 4 .4% N=976 And thinking about five years from now, do you think the country will be:

Response Number Percentage More political divided 437 44.9% Less politically divided 128 13.1% About the same 266 27.3% Don’t know 135 13.9% No answer/Refused 8 .8% N=974

Thinking about the political parties, please tell me if each of the phrases I read best describes the Democratic Party and its leaders, the Republican Party and its leaders, both, or neither.

Is more extreme in its positions

Response Number Percentage The Democratic Party 297 30.4% The Republican Party 335 34.3% Both 231 23.7% Neither 39 4% Don’t know 59 6.1%

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Response Number Percentage No answer/Refused 15 1.5% N=976 Can better manage the federal government.

Response Number Percentage The Democratic Party 275 28.3% The Republican Party 308 31.6% Both 89 9.2% Neither 225 23.1% Don’t know 65 6.7% No answer/Refused 11 1.1% N=973

Is more concerned for the needs of people like me.

Response Number Percentage The Democratic Party 358 36.7% The Republican Party 294 30.2% Both 50 5.1% Neither 210 21.5% Don’t know 49 5% No answer/Refused 14 1.4% N=975

Is more ethical and honest.

Response Number Percentage The Democratic Party 173 27.8% The Republican Party 143 23% Both 30 4.8% Neither 252 40.5% Don’t know 24 3.9% No answer/Refused 0 0% N=622

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In your view, do the Democratic and Republican parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third party is needed?

Response Number Percentage The two parties do an 236 24.2% adequate job of representing Americans The two parties do not do an 553 56.8% adequate job of representing Americans and a third party is needed Don’t know 165 16.9% No answer/Refused 20 2.1% N=974

Sample Characteristics Registered Party (from Voter File) Democrats 36% Republicans 31.1% Unaffiliated 31% Other/Refused .2

N= 1002 Age (from Voter File) Millennial (Born 1981 & after, ages 18-36) 34.6% Gen X (Born 1965-80, ages 37-52) 31.5% Boomer (Born 1945-64, ages 53-72) 18.7% Silent+ (Born 1944 & earlier, ages 73+) 15.1%

N= 1003 Gender (from Voter File)

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Female 54.9% Male 45.1% N= 1003

Race (from Voter File) White 80.6% Black 13.7% Hispanic 2.3% Other 3.4%

N= 1002

Education Less than high school 3.8% High school graduate 42.4% College graduate 34.1% Graduate or professional school graduate 19.3% Vocational school .4% N= 844

Income Less than $20,000 10.1% $20,000-29,999 9.7%% $30,000-39,999 1.1% $40,000-49,999 16.6% $50,000-59,999 9.5% $60,000-74,999 10.4% $75,000-99,000 16.9% $100,000-149,999 7% More than $150,000 1.9% DK/Refused 7% N= 1003 Marital Status

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Married 55.6% Single 42.2% NA/Refused .2% N= 973 Location (from Voter File) Rural 53.6% Urban 46.4% N= 1003 Mode (from Voter Files) Cell phones 17.5% Landline 20.4% Email 62.1% N= 1003

Cross-tabulations Direction of the country All in all, are you satisfied with the way things are going in this country today?

Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t Know Democrat 22.8% 69.7% .8% Republican 40.3% 47.4% 10.7% Unaffiliated 30.4% 60.8% 8.7% White 34.4% 55.9% 9.2% Black 15.9% 74.4% 9.8% Other 18.2% 70.6% 8.8% Female 25.5% 64.6% 9.2% Male 37.3% 53.5% .2% Millennial 35.5% 53.9% 10.5% Gen X 34% 55.9% 10.2% Boomer 25.3% 67.7% 5.4% Silent + 20.5% 70.9% 8% Married 32.5% 60.5% 6.3% Single 25.6% 63.6% 10.8% Less than HS diploma 46.8% 43.8% 9.4%

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Satisfied Dissatisfied Don’t Know High school diploma 30.8% 60.5% 8.5% College Degree 29.5% 60.4% 9.8% Graduate or 35% 52.8% 11.7% professional degree Vocational diploma 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% or degree Less than $20,000 23.1% 65.2% 10.1%

$20-29,999 21% 70% 9% $30-39,999 25.8% 60% 14.4% $40-49,999 30% 59.1% 10.9% $50-59,999 38.9% 54.5% 6.6% $60-74,999 29.5% 59% 10.5% $75-99,999 37.5% 59.6% 5.8% $100-149,999 34.5 55.4% 8.9% More than $150,000 12.5% 64.7% 4.4% Rural 32% 58.1% 9.4% Urban 29.5% 61.6% 8.7%

Political Polarization What comes to mind when you hear the word “Conservative”? Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Hypocritical Republican 1. Trump 2. Traditional values 3. Low taxes Unaffiliated 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Christian White 1. Trump 2. Traditional values 3. Old Other 1. Trump 2. Anti- immigration 3. Old

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Characteristic Responses Female 1. Trump 2. Anti- women 3. Traditional values Male 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Crazy Millennial 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Hypocritical Gen X 1. Trump 2. Anti- women 3. Old Boomer 1. Trump 2. Traditional values 3. Hypocritical Silent + 1. Trump 2. Traditional values 3. Low taxes Married 1. Trump 2. Traditional values 3. Hypocritical Single 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Hypocritical Less than HS 1. Trump diploma 2. Old 3. Low taxes High school 1. Trump diploma 2. Old 3. Hypocritical College 1. Trump Degree 2. Old 3. Hypocritical Graduate or 1. Trump professional 2. Hypocritical degree 3. Low taxes

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Characteristic Responses Vocational 1. Trump diploma or 2. Old degree 3. Low taxes Less than 1. Trump $20,000 2. Low taxes 3. Traditional values $20-29,999 1. Trump 2. Low taxes 3. Old $30-39,999 1. Trump 2. Low taxes 3. Hypocritical $40-49,999 1. Trump 2. Traditional values 3. Old $50-59,999 1. Trump 2. Hypocritical 3. Low taxes $60-74,999 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Low taxes $75-99,999 1. Trump 2. Hypocritical 3. Old $100- 1. Trump 149,999 2. Low taxes 3. Traditional values More than 1. Trump $150,000 2. Old 3. Hypocritical Rural 1. Trump 2. Low taxes 3. Old Urban 1. Trump 2. Hypocritical 3. Anti- women

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

What comes to mind when you hear the word “Liberal” Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Open- minded 2. Fair 3. Democrats Republican 1. Democrats 2. Crazy 3. Hillary Clinton Unaffiliated 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Progressive White 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Crazy Black 1. Open- minded 2. Democrats 3. Civil Rights Other 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Progressive Female 1. Open- minded 2. Democrats 3. Women’s rights Male 1. Democrats 2. Crazy 3. Open- minded Millennial 1. Open- minded 2. Democrats 3. Progressive Boomer 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Crazy

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Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Open- minded 2. Fair 3. Democrats Silent + 1. Democrats 2. Crazy 3. Progressive Married 1. Democrats 2. Crazy 3. Open- minded Single 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Crazy Less than HS 1. Democrats diploma 2. Crazy 3. Open- minded High school 1. Democrats diploma 2. Crazy 3. Progressive College 1. Open- Degree minded 2. Democrats 3. Progressive Graduate or 1. Open- professional minded degree 2. Democrats 3. Women’s rights Vocational 1. Democrats diploma or 2. Crazy degree Less than 1. Democrats $20,000 2. Progressive 3. Crazy $20-29,999 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Crazy

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Open- minded 2. Fair 3. Democrats

$30-39,999 1. Democrats 2. Women’s rights 3. Open- minded $40-49,999 1. Democrats 2. Crazy 3. Open- minded $50-59,999 1. Democrats 2. Progressive 3. Open- minded $60-74,999 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Crazy $75-99,999 1. Democrats 2. Open- minded 3. Women’s rights $100- 1. Open- 149,999 minded 2. Democrats 3. Crazy More than 1. Open- $150,000 minded 2. Democrats 3. High taxes Rural 1. Democrats 2. Crazy 3. Open- minded Urban 1. Open- minded 2. Progressive

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Open- minded 2. Fair 3. Democrats 3. Democrats

What comes to mind when you hear the word “Republican”? Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old

Republican 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Low taxes Unaffiliated 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old White 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Low Taxes Black 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Discrimination Other 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Low taxes Female 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Anti-women Male 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old Millennial 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Anti-environment Gen X 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Rich Boomer 1. Trump 2. Rich

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Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old

3. Low Taxes Silent + 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Low Taxes Married 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old Single 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Rich Less than HS 1. Trump diploma 2. Rich 3. Low taxes High school 1. Trump diploma 2. Rich 3. Discrimination College 1. Trump Degree 2. Rich 3. Low taxes Graduate or 1. Trump professional 2. Old degree 3. Rich Vocational 1. Trump diploma or 2. Low taxes degree Less than 1. Trump $20,000 2. Rich 3. Low Taxes $20-29,999 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old $30-39,999 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Low taxes $40-49,999 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Discrimination $50-59,999 1. Trump

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Characteristic Responses Democrat 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old

2. Low taxes 3. Rich $60-74,999 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Low Taxes $75-99,999 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Rich $100- 1. Trump 149,999 2. Old 3. Low Taxes More than 1. Trump $150,000 2. Low taxes 3. Rich Rural 1. Trump 2. Rich 3. Old Urban 1. Trump 2. Old 3. Rich

What comes to mind when you hear the word “Democrat”? Characteristic Response Democrat 1. Barack Obama 2. Hillary Clinton 3. Fair Republican 1. Big Spending 2. Hillary Clinton 3. Barack Obama Unaffiliated 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending White 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending Black 1. Barack Obama

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Characteristic Response 2. Fair 3. Civil rights Other 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending Female 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Fair Male 1. Barack Obama 2. Hillary Clinton 3. Big spending Millennial 1. Barack Obama 2. Fair 3. Environment Gen X 1. Barack Obama 2. Hillary Clinton 3. Fair Boomer 1. Big spending 2. Barack Obama 3. Hillary Clinton Silent + 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Big spending 3. Barack Obama Married 1. Barack Obama 2. Big spending 3. Hillary Clinton Single 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending Less than HS 1. Hillary Clinton diploma 2. Big Spending 3. High taxes High school 1. Hillary Clinton diploma 2. Barack Obama 3. Education College 1. Barack Obama Degree 2. Hillary Clinton 3. Big spending Graduate or 1. Hillary Clinton professional 2. Barack Obama degree 3. Big spending

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Characteristic Response Vocational 1. Big spending diploma or 2. Hillary Clinton degree Less than 1. Hillary Clinton $20,000 2. Big spending 3. Radical $20-29,999 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending $30-39,999 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Barack Obama 3. Big spending $40-49,999 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Fairness 3. Big spending $50-59,999 1. Barack Obama 2. Big spending 3. Hillary Clinton $60-74,999 1. Big spending 2. High taxes 3. Barack Obama $75-99,999 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Big spending 3. Fairness $100- 1. Barack Obama 149,999 2. Big spending 3. Hillary Clinton More than 1. High taxes $150,000 2. Hillary Clinton 3. Big spending Rural 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Big spending 3. Barack Obama Urban 1. Barack Obama 2. Big spending 3. Hillary Clinton

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What is your view—do you think this country is more divided these days than in the part, or not? More Less About Don’t No politically politically the know answer/Refused divided divided same Democrat 77.9% 4.3% 14.1% 2.9% .9% Republican 76.8% 5% 14.2% 4% 0% Unaffiliated 78.4% 3.3% 14.4% 3.6% .3% White 78.4% 3.9% 14.4% 3.1% .3% Black 72.3% 4.6% 14.6% 6.9% 1.5% Other 66.7% 14.3% 19.15 0% 0% Female 77.8% 3.8% 14.3% 3.6% .6% Male 77.3% 4.7% 14.6% 3.2% .2% Millennial 76.4% 6.1% 15.7% 1.8% 0% Gen X 75.7% 3.2% 17.3% 3.8% 0% Boomer 81.9% 3.9% 10.4% 2.2% 1.7% Silent + 79% 2.2% 10.1% 8% .7% Married 81.9% 5% 10.6% 1.9% .6% Single 75.3% 3.8% 15.3% 5.3% .5% Less than HS 78.1% 12.5% 9.4% 0% 05 diploma High school 75.9% 3.7% 16.7% 3.5% .3% diploma College 76.2% 5.3% 14.6^ 3.6% .4% Degree Graduate or 78.4% 3.7% 16.7% 1.2% 0% professional degree Vocational 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% diploma or degree Less than 73.5% 2.9% 19.1% 4.4% 0% $20,000

$20-29,999 75.3% 2.9% 19.1% 4.4% 0% $30-39,999 75.3% 1% 16.5% 6.2% 1% $40-49,999 78.1% 2.1% 17.7% 2.1% 0% $50-59,999 75.9% 2.8% 14.8% 6.5% 0% $60-74,999 74.7% 7.8% 14.5% 3% 0% $75-99,999 82.6% 3.3% 9.8% 4.4% 0% $100- 72.5% 6.9% 14.7% 2.9% 2.9% 149,999

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More Less About Don’t No politically politically the know answer/Refused divided divided same More than 82.2% 4.9% 12.3% .6% 0% $150,000 Rural 77.1% 4.8% 13.7% 3.8% .6% Urban 78.1% 3.5% 15.3% 2.9% .2%

And, thinking about five years from now, do you think the country will be: More Less About Don’t No politically politically the know answer/Refused divided divided same Democrat 42.2% 14.5% 28.3% 13.6% 1.5% Republican 45.4% 14.9% 25.8% 13.3% .7% Unaffiliated 45.7% 10.8% 27.8% 15.4% .3% White 43.7% 13.7% 27.6% 14.6% .5% Black 45.4% 10.8% 27.7% 13.9% 2.3% Other 47.6% 9.5% 38.1% 4.8% 0% Female 43.1% 11.9% 27.4% 16.6% 1% Male 47% 14.6% 27.2% 10.6% .7% Millennial 48.7% 11.4% 32.1% 7.9% 0% Gen X 51.3% 8.9% 28.7% 11.2% 0% Boomer 38.3% 23.4% 17.2% 18.3% 2.8% Silent + 29.2% 13.8% 25.6% 29.2% 2.2% Married 41.9% 18.3% 22.5% 15.6% 1.9% Single 43.4% 12.8% 29.3% 14.3% .3% Less than HS 46.9% 12.5% 34.4% 6.3% 0% diploma High school 47.6% 11.2% 27.1% 13.5% .6% diploma College 42% 13.9% 30.6% 13.2% .4% Degree Graduate or 49.4% 12.4% 27.2% 9.9% 1.2% professional degree Vocational 100% 0% 0% 05 0% diploma or degree Less than 38.2% 7.4% 35.3% 17.7% 1.5% $20,000

$20-29,999 47.4% 11.3% 25.8% 14.4% 1%

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More Less About Don’t No politically politically the know answer/Refused divided divided same $30-39,999 45.8% 13.5% 29.2% 11.5% 0% $40-49,999 43.5% 9.35 30.6% 16.7% 0% $50-59,999 48.2% 14.5% 25.9% 10.8% .6% $60-74,999 49.5% 12.1% 20.9% 15.4% 2.2% $75-99,999 49% 15% 25% 9% 2% $100- 44.5% 16.5% 25% 13.4% .6% 149,999 More than 32.8% 14.9% 29.9% 22.4% 0% $150,000 Rural 43.6% 13.6% 26.8% 14.9% 1.2% Urban 46.3% 12.6% 27.9% 12.6% .4%

Thinking about the political parties, please tell me if each of the phrases I read best describes the Democratic Party and its leaders, the Republican Party and its leaders, both, or neither.

Is more extreme in its positions. Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Democrat 21.6% 44.8% 20.1% 4.6% 6.6% 2.3% Republican 42.6% 23.4% 23.15 3.6% 5.9% 1.3% Unaffiliated 28.9% 34.1% 26.6% 3.6% 5.9% 1% White 33.3% 32.8% 23.1% 3.7% 5.6% 1.4% Black 15.4% 45.4% 20% 5.45 10.8% 3.1% Other 28.6% 33.3% 28.6% 9.5% 0% 0% Female 30.2% 34.5% 20.6% 5.1% 7.6% 2.1% Male 30.7% 34.1% 27.4% 2.3% 4.4% .9% Millennial 26.5% 38.5% 26.5% 3.8% 4.7% 0% Gen X 33.8% 29.9% 27.7% 3.8% 4.8% 0% Boomer 31.9% 36.8% 16.5% 5% 5% 5% Silent + 30.7% 30.7% 16.8% 3.7% 13.9% 4.4% Married 33.5% 30.8% 24.5% 3.4% 5% 2.8% Single 25.6% 37.8% 24.1% 4.3% 7.3% 1% Less than HS 21.9% 34.4% 37.5% 3.1% 3.1% 0% diploma High school 31% 33.15 24.15 3.5% 6.6% 1.7% diploma College 28.4% 35.5% 23.8% 4.6% 7.1% .7% Degree

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Graduate or 37% 27.8% 26.5% 4.3% 3.7% .6% professional degree Vocational 33.3% 0% 33.3% 0% 0% 33.3% diploma or degree Less than 30.9% 32.4% 19.1% 5.9% 8.8% 2.9% $20,000

$20-29,999 25.7% 30.9% 22.7% 3.1% 12.4% 5.2% $30-39,999 24% 42.7% 25% 2.1% 6.3% 0% $40-49,999 30.6% 29.6% 27.8% 6.5% 5.6% 0% $50-59,999 33.1% 30.7% 28.3% 3% 4.25 .6% $60-74,999 29.4% 37% 19.6% 4.4% 8.7% 1.1% $75-99,999 39.2% 29.4% 22.6% 2% 3.9% 2.9% $100- 29.9% 39% 19.5% 5.5% 4.3% 1.8% 149,999 More than 25.8% 37.9% 28.8% 4.6% 3% 0% $150,000

Rural 32.8% 31.8% 23.3% 2.9% 7.8% 1.5% Urban 27.7% 37.3% 24.2% 5.35 4% 1.6%

Can better manage the federal government. Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Democrat 44.5% 19% 11.2% 17% 6% 2.3% Republican 14.6% 49.7% 8.6% 18.9% 7.6% .7% Unaffiliated 23.8% 29% 6.6% 33.3% 6.9% .3% White 24.1% 37% 9.6% 21.6% 6.7% 1% Black 50% 6.2% 7.7% 25.4% 8.5% 2.3% Other 42.9% 14.3% 4.8% 33.3% 4.8% 0% Female 28.4% 29.9% 9.3% 23.3% 7.6% 1.5% Male 28.1% 33.7% 9% 22.9% 5.6% .7% Millennial 29.7% 30.3% 9.3% 25.1% 5.5% 0% Gen X 28.7% 31.9% 9.9% 25.5% 4.1% 0% Boomer 27.6% 35.4% 8.3% 17.7% 7.2% 3.9% Silent + 24.4% 29.6% 8.2% 20% 14.8% 3% Married 25.1% 36.1% 8.8% 21.3% 6.9% 1.9%

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Single 31.6% 27.1% 9.3% 24.3% 7% .8% Less than HS 31.3% 34.4% 9.4% 18.8% 6.3% 0% diploma High school 27.5% 30.9% 10.7% 24.3% 5.2% 1.5% diploma College 29.1% 31.9% 7.8% 225 8.9% .4% Degree Graduate or 26.5% 34% 8.6% 27.2% 3.7% 0% professional degree Vocational 0% 33.3% 0% 33.3% 0% 33.3% diploma or degree Less than 35.3% 27.9% 7.4% 17.7% 8.8% 2.9% $20,000

$20-29,999 27.1% 24% 11.5% 24% 10.4% 3.1% $30-39,999 34.4% 25% 9.4% 25% 6.3% 0% $40-49,999 25% 37% 9.3% 22.2% 6.5% 0% $50-59,999 25.9% 32.5% 9.6% 25.3% 6.6% 0% $60-74,999 28.3% 27.2% 12% 25% 5.45 2.2% $75-99,999 25.7% 32.7% 8.9% 25.7% 5% 2% $100- 25.8% 39.9% 6.8% 21.5% 4.9% 1.2% 149,999 More than 31.8% 30.3% 9.1% 21.2% 7.6% 0% $150,000 Rural 26% 33% 10.7% 20.8% 8% 1.5% Urban 31% 30.1% 7.4% 25.8% 5.1% .7%

Is more concerned for the needs of people like me. Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Democrat 55.2% 17.2% 5.2% 15.2% 4.9% 2.3% Republican 19.5% 46% 6% 22.2% 5.6% .7% Unaffiliated 33.4% 29.8% 4.6% 25.9% 4.9% 1.3% White 31.8% 35.4% 5% 21.6% 4.9% 1.3% Black 63.1% 3.9% 5.4% 16.2% 8.5% 3.1% Other 57.1% 19.1% 9.5% 14.35 0% 0% Female 39.1% 29.7% 4.2% 19.5% 5.7% 1.9% Male 33.9% 30.7% 6.3% 24% 4.3% .9% Millennial 40.2% 28.6% 6.4% 21.6% 3.2% 0%

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Gen X 33.1% 31.5% 4.8% 27.7% 2.9% 0% Boomer 37.9% 33% 5.5% 15.9% 3.3% 4.4% Silent + 34.6% 27.2% 2.2% 14.7% 16.9% 4.4% Married 31.1% 36% 3.4% 21.7% 5.6% 2.2% Single 44.2% 22.6% 5.5% 22.15 4.8% .8% Less than HS 31.3% 37.5% 3.1% 28.1% 0% 0% diploma High school 37.9% 27% 6.6% 22.7% 4% 1.7% diploma College 36.2% 34.4% 4.3% 19.5% 5.3% .4% Degree Graduate or 35.8% 32.7% 4.3% 24.7% 2.5% 0% professional degree Vocational 0% 0% 0% 66.7% 0% 33.3% diploma or degree

Less than 44.1% 19.1% 2.9% 20.6% 7.4% 5.9% $20,000

$20-29,999 35.4% 27.1% 3.1% 17.7% 13.5% 3.1% $30-39,999 40.6% 27.1% 6.3% 22.9% 3.1% 0% $40-49,999 32.4% 36.1% 7.4% 19.4% 4.6% 0% $50-59,999 33.1% 27.7% 6.6% 28.3% 4.2% 0% $60-74,999 40.2% 27.2% 3.3% 22.8% 3.3% 3.3% $75-99,999 34.3% 33.35 3.9% 21.6% 3.9% 2.9% $100- 34.8% 38.45 4.9% 17.1% 4.3% .6% 149,999 More than 40.9% 27.3% 3% 25.8% 3% 0% $150,000 Rural 32.3% 33.8% 5.9% 19.9% 6.7% 1.5% Urban 41.9% 25.9% 4.2% 23.5% 3.1% 1.3%

Is more honest and ethical. Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Democrat 40% 13.9% 8.3% 33.3% 4.4% 0% Republican 19.5% 34.9% 3.1% 36.9% 5.6% 0%

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Democratic Republican Both Neither Don’t know No Party Party answer/Refused Unaffiliated 26.3% 20.2% 3.5% 47.8% 2.2% 0% White 23.6% 27% 5% 41% 3.4% 0% Black 45.4% 7% 7% 31.4% 9.3% 0% Other 33.3% 9.5% 0% 57.1% 0% 0% Female 26.4% 22.6% 5.8% 40.6% 4.6% 0% Male 29.% 23.5% 3.6% 40.4% 2.9% 0% Millennial 30.2% 22.6% 5.3% 38.1% 3.8% 0% Gen X 24.9% 23.5% 4.3% 43.4% 3.9% 0% Boomer 27.2% 26.4% 3.9% 40.2% 4.3% 0% Silent + 25.1% 26.2% 2.7% 43.1% 2.9% 0% Married 23.7% 25.9% 4.5% 42.4% 3.6% 0% Single 34.3% 21.7% 5.1% 35.7% 3.3% 0% Less than HS 31.3% 18.8% 0% 43.8% 6.3% 0% diploma High school 27.5% 23.1% 7.6% 36.6% 5.2% 0% diploma College 30.1% 21.4% 2.9% 42.7% 2.9% 0% Degree Graduate or 23% 24.6% 4.1% 45.9% 2.5% 0% professional degree Vocational diploma or degree Less than 42.5% 17.5% 2.5% 32.5% 5% 0% $20,000

$20-29,999 25.6% 25.6% 7.7% 38.5% 2.6% 0% $30-39,999 28.4% 25.7% 2.7% 40.5% 2.7% 0% $40-49,999 27.1% 29.4% 4.7% 32.9% 5.9% 0% $50-59,999 25.3% 21.9% 6.2% 40.4% 6.2% 0% $60-74,999 29% 16.1% 3.2% 48.4% 3.2% 0% $75-99,999 25.9% 31.5% 5.6% 37% 0% 0% $100- 25.3% 18.7% 6.7% 48% 1.3% 0% 149,999 More than 26.7% 13.3% 0% 56.7% 3.3% 0% $150,000 Rural 23.6% 28.2% 5.3% 37.7% 5.3% 0% Urban 31.9% 18% 4.4% 43.2% 2.5% 0%

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

In your view, do the Democratic and Republican parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third party is needed? The two The two Don’t No answer/Refused parties do parties do know an adequate not do an job of adequate representing job of Americans representing Americans and a third party is needed Democrat 26.5% 51.3% 18.25 4% Republican 26.5% 56.6% 16.2% .7% Unaffiliated 18.4% 64.3% 16.1% 1.3% White 25.3% 57.1% 16% 1.7% Black 19.2% 53.1% 22.3% 5.4% Other 14.3% 57.1% 28.6% 0% Female 25.2% 59.8% 14.2% .9% Male 23.4% 54.3% 19.3% 3% Millennial 27.1% 58% 14.9% 0% Gen X 18.2% 65.6% 15.6% .6% Boomer 22.5% 51.7% 16.8% 6% Silent + 33.3% 40% 21.5% 5.2% Married 25.9% 57% 13.1% 0% Single 21.1% 57.5% 19.9% 1.5% Less than HS 37.5% 59.4% 3.1% 0% diploma High school 24.5% 54.8% 18.7% 2% diploma College 18.1% 64.9% 15.6% 1.4% Degree Graduate or 29% 53.1% 16.1% 1.9% professional degree Vocational 33.3% 33.3% 0% 33.3% diploma or degree Less than 20.6% 45.6% 32.4% 1.5% $20,000

$20-29,999 26% 46.9% 21.9% 5.2% $30-39,999 20.8% 60.4% 15.6% 3.15

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

$40-49,999 25.9% 57.4% 15.7% .9% $50-59,999 27.1% 59.6% 12.7% .6% $60-74,999 20.9% 61.5% 15.4% 2.2% $75-99,999 31.4% 52.9% 12.8% 2.9% $100- 21.3% 58.5% 18.9% 1.2% 149,999 More than 24.2% 66.7% 6.1% 3% $150,000 Rural 24.9% 53.7% 19.3% 2.1% Urban 23.5% 60.3% 14.2% 2%

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Poll Methodology

Mode: Live Interviewer Telephone Interview from randomized sample

(Dual Frame: Cell Phone and Landlines)

Email Surveys (SSI Panels)

Population & Sample Area North Carolina registered voters (Board of Elections lists)

Dates in the field: March 25-April 30, 2018

Registered Voter Sample Size 1003 Registered Voter Margin of Error ±3%

Confidence Level 95%

Procedures Used for Conducting the Poll

The Meredith College Poll uses a sample of North Carolina registered voters with telephones and wireless (cell) telephone numbers. We also included randomly selected North Carolina voters to contact by email. Please direct questions about the Meredith College Poll’s methodology to David McLennan (919-760-2287 or [email protected]).

The Meredith College Poll uses CATI system software (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) for the administration of telephone surveys. We attempt to reach each working telephone number in the sample up to five times. We only interview residents of North Carolina who are over 18. The Meredith College Poll conducted the survey in English with students who are fluent in Spanish. Live interviewers called from 5:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Sunday-Thursday.

We use Qualtrics for the administration of email surveys.

Additional Methodological Decisions

“Don’t Know” and “Refused” Options

All questions include an option for respondents to volunteer “don’t know” or to refuse. In most questions, callers do not prompt these possible responses.

Completion Criteria

An interview is a complete only if a respondent progresses through the entire survey. Respondents who hang up before completing the last question or refuse to more than 10 percent of the questions are incompletes. Email surveys are only counted with less than 10 percent of the questions are incomplete.

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Sampling

Survey Sampling International, LLC, provide samples of telephone numbers. To equalize the probability of telephone selection, sample telephone numbers are systematically stratified according to subpopulation strata (e.g., a zip code, a county, etc.), which yields a sample from telephone exchanges in proportion to each exchange's share of telephone households in the population of interest. Estimates of telephone households in the population of interest are generally obtained from several databases. Samples of household telephone numbers are distributed across all eligible blocks of numbers in proportion to the density of listed households assigned in the population of interest according to a specified subpopulation stratum. Upon determining the projected (or preferred) sample size, a sampling interval is calculated by summing the number of listed residential numbers in each eligible block within the population of interest and dividing that sum by the number of sampling points assigned to the population. From a random start between zero and the sampling interval, blocks are selected systematically in proportion to the density of listed household "working blocks." We use SSI because they produce valid samples for many polling organizations, including the Meredith College Poll. For the email survey, we used a convenience sample of internet users from North Carolina that are part of SSI’s over 11.5 million worldwide panelists that are screened and verified by the company. They administer the survey by sending requests to their North Carolina panelists, who opt-in or volunteer for the survey. We ask an additional screening question about whether panelists are registered voters in North Carolina. If they answer “no,” their responses are not used. Although using a sample such as this makes it difficult to compute or report a margin of sampling error, we examine the demographic characteristics of those completing the internet surveys to compare our sample to the North Carolina population. (Also see the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s (AAPOR) Non-Probability Sampling Task Force Report and the AAPOR report on Opt-In Surveys and Margin of Error.)

Because we used dual mode (telephone and internet) surveying, we compared the results from both sets of respondents. The average age of the internet respondents was 41, while the average age of the telephone respondents was 57. Otherwise, the differences in gender, party affiliation, and other factors was negligible.

Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting at each of these stages. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for results based on the full sample (n=1003). If the internet respondents are excluded, the margin of sampling error is 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Sponsorship of the Poll This survey was conducted for the Independent Insurance Agents of North Carolina and administered through a partnership between the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation and Meredith College. The Poll is solely administered by Meredith College. The questions were created in consultation with the

MEREDITH POLL, MARCH 25-APRIL 30, 2018

Independent Insurance Agents of North Carolina and the data was collected and analyzed by the directors of the Meredith Poll.

For more information on the Meredith College Poll and this survey, visit meredith.edu/college-research/meredith-poll @themeredithpoll or

Contact:

David B. McLennan, Ph.D.

919-760-2287 (Office) |919-345-7334 (Cell) [email protected] @davidbmclennan