Political Polarization in CANADA and the U.S

Political Polarization in CANADA and the U.S.

Final Report FEBRUARY 2020 This study was conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research:

ENVIRONICS INSTITUTE FOR SURVEY RESEARCH Environics Institute for Survey Research conducts relevant and original public opinion and social research related to issues of public policy and social change. It is through such research that organizations and individuals can better understand Canada today, how it has been changing, and where it may be heading. Contents

Executive Summary ...... 1

Introduction ...... 2

Findings ...... 4

Political leaning: left, middle and right ...... 4

Support for the political system ...... 7

Trust in elections, parties and the media ...... 12

Trust in the legislature and the executive ...... 15

National pride ...... 19

Discussion ...... 22

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S.

Executive summary

This report explores the issue of political polarization in have declined sharply among left-leaning Americans while Canada and the United States through an analysis of public jumping no less sharply among those on the right. opinion data about democracy collected over the past In Canada, in contrast, left-right polarization is much decade. Ideally, in a democratic society, partisans on the left less pronounced and has generally declined, rather and right, while holding different policy preferences, will than increased, over the past decade. There has been a share similar degrees of support for the political institutions convergence between the left and right in satisfaction with and processes through which those preferences are pursued. democracy, support for or pride in the political system, and The data show that, in practice, this is not always the case. respect for political institutions. This is because views have The situations in Canada and the U.S. are markedly different. improved significantly among those on the left, without The U.S. is highly polarized, with support for democratic deteriorating to the same degree among those on the right. institutions and actors among those on the left or right The analysis shows that it is important to approach Canada generally rising or falling depending on which political party as its own case, and not assume that its experiences mirror is in power. This polarization was evident during the Obama those of other Western democracies that are straining under presidency, but has intensified under Trump, as measures the influence of populism and the rise of a more polarized such as satisfaction with democracy, support for or pride in political discourse. the political system, and especially trust in the president,

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 1 Introduction: Political polarization

There are many complaints about the quality of This report will explore the issue of political polarization contemporary politics. Some believe that parties and through the analysis of public opinion data collected over politicians are too scripted and tightly managed by the past decade in Canada and the United States. It will backroom staff. Others find political debates too superficial compare the current state of political polarization, as well as and lament the lack of vision or long-term thinking. Still recent trends in the two countries. The focus will be first on others observe that the political arena has now become the distribution of the populations in both countries across hyper-partisan, with opponents holding to extreme the ideological spectrum, and then on the similarities and positions that afford little opportunity for consensus or differences in how supporters on the left and right in each compromise. country view their respective political systems. Ideally, in a democratic society, partisans on the left and right, while This last concern points to the issue of political polarization. holding different policy preferences, will share similar In the post-war period, Western democracies have typically degrees of support for the political institutions and processes presented voters with a choice between political parties within which those preferences are pursued. Conversely, on the left and right of the political spectrum, such as signs of a widening gap in support for the political system the Labour Party and the Conservatives in the U.K., or the between those on the left and right can be taken as evidence Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Some countries, like of a society that is becoming more polarized. Canada, offer a less binary choice, with important parties straddling the ideological middle ground. While these Notably, each country underwent a significant political shift left-centre-right differences have fuelled political contests in the middle of the decade, with Canada moving from right for decades, many hold that the extent of polarization has to left with the defeat of the Conservative Party and the increased in recent years: that the overlapping areas in election of a Liberal government; and the U.S. moving from the political Venn diagram have been shrinking as each left to right with the end of President Obama’s second term party’s own circle pulls further away from the others. This and the election of Donald Trump. The public opinion data polarization not only makes political debate less civil, but therefore allow for an analysis of the impact that a left-right brings with it risks of inertia (though political stalemate) and, (or right-left) shift in government has on how partisans worse, of widening social divisions through the malicious at either end of the political spectrum view their political scapegoating of opponents in an attempt to mobilize one’s system. (Note that the 2019 survey in Canada took place in own supporters. July, prior to the October 2019 federal election).

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 2 Data source: The AmericasBarometer The data analyzed in this report are drawn from the Canadian and U.S. portions of the AmericasBarometer surveys. The AmericasBarometer is a recurring study conducted approximately every two years, covering 23 countries spanning the Western Hemisphere. In Canada, the surveys of approximately 1,500 adults were conducted online five times over the past decade: in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019. Since 2012, the Canadian surveys were conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research.1 Data from the U.S. surveys of approximately 1,500 American adults were obtained from the Latin American Public Opinion Project.

The AmericasBarometer surveys include a variety of questions related to confidence in the political system. These questions ask about satisfaction with, pride in, support for, respect for, trust in and approval of different political institutions or actors. Many of these questions ask respondents to express the extent of their agreement or trust on a 7-point scale. In these cases, this report will look at expressions of strong agreement or strong trust, which combine responses of six and seven on the scale, or low agreement or low trust, which combine responses of one and two.

1 The AmericasBarometer data for 2010 were supplied by the Latin American Public Opinion Project at Vanderbilt University, which takes no responsibility for any interpretation of the data.

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 3 Findings

Political leaning: left, middle and right

Canadians are more likely than Americans to place themselves in the (19%) place themselves on the right end of the scale and 15 middle of the political spectrum, and less likely to place themselves percent place themselves on the left. This distribution has on either the left or the right. Moreover, there is a stronger stayed relatively stable over the past decade, although the relationship in the U.S. between left-right leaning and party support. proportion placing themselves on the right grew slightly Over eight in ten Americans on the left intend to vote Democrat, and between 2010 and 2014 before ebbing back down. the same proportion of those on the right intend to vote Republican. By comparison, more Americans place themselves on either In Canada, only one in four left-leaning voters intend to support the end of the left-right scale, and fewer place themselves in NDP, and fewer than one in two of those on the right intend to vote the middle: 30 percent of Americans are on the right end of Conservative. the scale, 40 percent are in the middle and 27 percent are In terms of their political leanings, Canadians do not look on the left. The pattern over time is similar to Canada’s, with very polarized. When asked in 2019 to place themselves on little significant change since 2010, but with a slight increase a left-right political scale, two-thirds (66%) of Canadians in the proportion on the right between 2010 and 2014 that avoid either pole and opt for the middle ground. One in five subsequently ebbed back.

Political leaning: left, middle and right % 2010–19

CANADA U.S.A.

18 14 24 22 19 33 34 41 32 30 70 69 66 61 65 42 40 48 40 41

25 25 27 17 19 16 13 15 13 15

2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10)

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 According to the meaning that the terms ‘left’ and ‘right’ have for you, and thinking of your own political leanings, where would you place yourself on this scale? (10-point scale)

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 4 Canada, therefore, is less polarized than the U.S. in the sense political spectrum, while an even larger majority of that fewer Canadians identify with either the left or right Republican supporters (66%) place themselves on the end of the political spectrum. The extent of the difference right. In Canada, however, a majority of those intending between the two neighbouring countries, however, comes to vote for each of the four most popular national parties into even sharper focus when we look at the relationship – the Liberals, the Conservatives, the NDP and the Greens – between left-right political leaning and party support. place themselves in the middle. Strikingly, only 30 percent of NDP supporters place themselves on the left end of the Not surprisingly, a majority (54%) of Americans intending spectrum, and only 29 percent of Conservative supporters to vote Democrat place themselves on the left of the place themselves on the right.

Political leaning (left - right), by voting intention % 2019

CANADA U.S.A.

69 67 66 58 56 54

37 29 30 29 22 19 21 14 6 2 12 4 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Republican Democrat

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10)

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 5 The point can be made in a different way, by looking at how In short, a majority of Americans identify with either the left those on the left, in the middle and on the right intend to or the right, and those left- and right-leaning voters each vote. In the U.S., over eight in ten of those of the left intend support their respective left-wing and right-wing parties. to vote Democrat, and the same proportion of those on the In Canada, the majority is in the middle, and each political right intend to vote Republican. In Canada, which has a multi- party appeals to voters with a mix of political leanings. By party system, only 25 percent of left-leaning voters intend to these measures, the U.S. polity is much more polarized than support the NDP (although over eight in ten support a party the Canadian one. other than the Conservatives). Perhaps more importantly, only 44 percent of those on the right intend to vote Conservative.

Voting intention, by political leaning (left - right) % 2019

CANADA U.S.A.

85 83

43 44 40

30 29 28 28 25 25 15 14 5 4 3 11 11 3 3 9 2 3 4 2 4 2 1 8 7 8 8 8 Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10)

Liberal NDP Bloc None Republican Third Party

Conservative Green PPC Democrat None

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 6 Support for the political system In Canada, there is now no significant difference between those Satisfaction with democracy on the left and those on the right in their level of satisfaction with % 2010–2019 the way democracy works. In the U.S., in contrast, there has been a 100 Satisfied:SatisfiedCANADA - Canada Dissatisfied:DissatisfiedCANADA - Canada marked divergence in levels of satisfaction with the way democracy Satisfied:SatisfiedU.S.A. - U.S. Dissatisfied:Disatisfied -U.S.A. U.S. works, with satisfaction dropping among those on the left and 79 80 77 76 increasing among those on the right. Similar patterns are evident 71 70 in each country in the case of questions related to support for the 60 56 political system, respect for political institutions and pride in living 56 50 52 52 under each country’s political system. 44 48 48 40 44 It is often stated that electorates in many countries are 29 30 losing confidence in their democracies.2 Over the past 23 21 23 20 decade, however, overall satisfaction with democracy in both Canada and the United States has held steady. 0 Canadians (76%) are more likely than Americans (56%) to be 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 very satisfied or satisfied with the way democracy works Source: Americas Barometer 2019 in their respective countries – but the respective levels Would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very of satisfaction are either the same (in the U.S.) or slightly dissatisfied with the way democracy works in [country]? higher (in Canada) than in 2010.

National averages can be misleading, however, if they mask divergent trends among different parts of the population – if one group becomes more satisfied and another becomes less so, the net result may be one of no overall change. This is the case in both countries.

In Canada, the divergent trend has been documented in another report; it lies at the regional level.3 Since 2019, British Columbians, and especially Quebecers, have become more satisfied with the way democracy works in Canada, and Albertans much less so. In 2010, the difference between the level of satisfaction in Alberta and Quebec was plus 27 percentage points in favour of Alberta; in 2019 it was minus 12.

2 For a recent example, see: R.S. Foa, A. Klassen, M. Slade, A. Rand and R. Williams, The Global Satisfaction with Democracy 2020 (Cambridge: Centre for the Future of Democracy, 2020); https://www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/media/uploads/files/DemocracyReport2020.pdf. 3 Environics Institute for Survey Research, Public Support for Canada’s Political System: Regional Trends (Toronto: Environics Institute for Survey Research, 2020); https://www.environicsinstitute.org/projects/project-details/public-support-for-canada-s-political-system-regional-trends.

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 7 When it comes to political leanings, however, Canadians Satisfied with democracy, by political leaning (left - right) have actually become much less polarized over the past % 2010–2019 Canada decade. Since 2010, there has been a very slight decline 100 in satisfaction with democracy among those on the right, 85 82 83 82 a very slight increase among those in the middle, and a 79 80 78 80 78 dramatic increase among those on the left. Among those on 71 77 70 75 the left, satisfaction grew from a low of 54 percent in 2012 62 62 60 to reach 79 percent in 2019 – a 25-point increase. The overall 54 pattern is one of convergence (less polarization) – there is now no significant difference in the level of satisfaction with 40 the way democracy works in Canada between those on the Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) left and those on the right. 20

The pattern in the U.S. could not be more different: there has 0 been a divergence in levels of satisfaction. Since 2012 (the 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 start of President Obama’s second term), satisfaction with the Source: Americas Barometer 2019 way democracy works in the U.S. has dropped by 15 points Would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very among those on the left, and increased by 26 points among dissatisfied with the way democracy works in [country]? those on the right – two trends which counteract each other when subsumed under the national average. Two further Satisfied with democracy, by political leaning (left - right) details are worth nothing. First, among Americans on the left, % 2010–2019 U.S.A. satisfaction with democracy began to decline prior to the 2016 election. Second, among those on the right, satisfaction 100 increased following the 2016 election (between the 2014 and 2017 surveys), and has continued to increase (between the 80 76

2017 to 2019 surveys), despite the controversies associated 64 with President Trump’s conduct. 60 61 56 55 54 52 50 51 50 52 49 48 40 37 36

20 Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10)

0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Would you say that you are very satisfied, satisfied, dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way democracy works in [country]?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 8 Very similar patterns are evident in the case of questions Feel one should support the political system related to support for the political system, respect for % 2010–2019 political institutions and pride in living under each country’s 60 AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada political system. AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. • In both Canada and the U.S., the proportions expressing strong support for the political system have remained 41 41 41 40 40 37 more or less stable (in each country, strong support 39 37 dipped a little in the middle of the decade before 36 rebounding). In Canada, however, the 20-point gap 30

that separated those in the left and right of the political 20 spectrum was erased after the change of government, 13 11 11 12 11 as those on left became much more supportive (there 9 8 was no change among those in the middle). In the U.S., 8 8 7 the small difference between those on the left and right 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 during the Obama period grew dramatically during the Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Trump period, as support for the political system among To what extent do you think that one should support the political system of those on the right jumped by 29 points (moving from 33% [country]? in 2014 to 62% in 2019). In short, there was convergence in views in Canada, and a divergence in the U.S.

Feel one should support the political system Feel one should support the political system % 2010–2019 Canada % 2010–2019 U.S.A. 100 100

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 80 80

62 58 60 57 55 60 52 54 50 48 51 46 44 40 40 37 40 40 37 37 35 36 33 37 35 30 31 30 30 27 27 20 20 21

0 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you think that one should support the political system of To what extent do you think that one should support the political system of [country]? [country]?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 9 • Relatively few Canadians or Americans express a lot of Respect for political institutions respect for their political institutions. In both countries, % 2010–2019 however, these proportions have gradually increased. In 60 AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada Canada, the proportion rose from 18 percent in 2010 to AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. 25 percent in 2019. The increase occurred among those both on the left and right, but the increase among those

on the left (19 points) following the 2015 federal election 40 is more marked. In the U.S., the opposite is the case, with 31 31 30 29 the post-election increase being more marked among 27 those on the right (17 points). Again, however, these 23 25 20 22 20 20 changes constitute a convergence in Canada, as views 18 15 16 18 17 18 among those on the left and right have become more 15 14 13 13 similar, and a slight divergence in the U.S.

0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you respect the political institutions of [country]?

A lot of respect for political institutions A lot of respect for political institutions % 2010–2019 Canada % 2010–2019 U.S.A. 60 60

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Right (8-10)

40 39 40 35 33 33 31 30 32 29 23 22 22 20 20 18 20 17 16 21 20 17 16 13 15 16 15 13

0 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you respect the political institutions of [country]? To what extent do you respect the political institutions of [country]?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 10 • Given the controversies surrounding the first years of Feel proud living under the political system President Trump’s tenure, some might be surprised to % 2010–2019 see that the proportion of Americans saying they do 60 AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada not respect their political institutions at all has been AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. declining. They might be equally surprised to see that the proportion saying they feel a lot of pride in living under

the political system of the U.S. has been increasing. The 40 39 37 39 39 37 latter trend, however, is driven entirely by a doubling of 35 32 30 the proportion of right-leaning Americans feeling a lot 32 25 pride in their political system, from 29 percent in 2014 to 20 19 62 percent in 2019. About two in five Canadians feel a lot 16 16 17 17 of pride living under their political system, a proportion 12 11 11 that has not changed much over the decade. But whereas 9 10 right-leaning Canadians were previously much more 0 likely to feel this way than their left-leaning counterparts 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 (a 26-point difference in 2012), this is no longer the Source: Americas Barometer 2019 case. While the proportion feeling strong pride doubled To what extent do you feel proud of living under the political system of among those on the right in the U.S., it doubled among [country]? those on the left in Canada. Again, the net result is the closing of the gap between the left and right in Canada, and the widening of the gap in the U.S.

Feel proud living under the political systems Feel proud living under the political system % 2010–2019 Canada % 2010–2019 U.S.A. 100 100

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 80 80

62 59 60 55 60 51 47 50 46 45 46 40 38 37 40 38 37 34 35 35 29 28 29 29 32 33 25 22 26 28 27 20 20 22 16

0 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you feel proud of living under the political system of To what extent do you feel proud of living under the political system of [country]? [country]?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 11 Trust in elections, parties and the media In Canada, levels of trust in elections, in political parties and in the Trust in elections mass media have risen among both those on the left and the right, % 2014–2019 even as the federal government shifted from Conservative to Liberal. 60 AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada In the U.S., those on the right were more likely to gain trust in AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. elections after 2016, but less likely to gain trust in the media.

In both Canada and the U.S., the proportions of citizens 41 41 40 that have a lot of trust in certain political institutions and actors, such as political parties, are relatively low – but not 31 declining. In fact, in some cases, trust is gradually increasing. 24 23 The questions pertaining to trust in elections, political 22 20 20 21 21 19 parties and the mass media are particularly interesting, however, because, contrary to the patterns seen in the 9 9 previous section, they tend to show some divergence in Canada between the views of those on the left and right, 0 2014 2017 2019 rather than convergence. Source: Americas Barometer 2019 • The proportion of Canadians with a lot of trust in their To what extent do you trust elections in this country? elections doubled between 2014 and 2017 (notably, before and after the 2015 federal election), from 21 to 41 dropped off after 2017. In the U.S., trust in elections also percent. The increase was much more dramatic among increased between 2014 and 2017 (on either side of 2016 those on the left (up 44 points), though there was also an election), though the level of trust fell back somewhat 18-point increase among those on the right (among those after 2017. Among Americans on the left, trust in elections in the middle of the political spectrum, the increase was 16 has been gradually declining since 2014. Among those on points). This is one instance where the pattern in Canada the right, the level of trust in elections more than doubled is one of initial divergence between left and right than following the election of Trump, before dropping back of convergence – though the divergence abated as the somewhat between 2017 and 2019 – possibly in the wake proportion on the left expressing a lot of trust in elections of the U.S. mid-term elections in 2018.

A lot of trust in elections A lot of trust in elections % 2014–2019 Canada % 2014–2019 U.S.A.

100 100

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 80 80

60 54 60 48 49 43 40 36 40 35 32 30 27 25 21 20 20 20 20 19 23 16 17

0 0 2014 2017 2019 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you trust elections in this country? To what extent do you trust elections in this country?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 12 • The proportions of both Canadians (12%) and Americans Trust in political parties (8%) that have a lot of trust in political parties are very % 2010–2019 low. Nonetheless, in each country, this proportion has AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada risen somewhat since 2012, while the proportion with AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. very low trust in parties has fallen. Unusually in this case, 60 however, in both countries, trust has risen among those 49 48 49 48 on both the left and the right of the political spectrum. 39 The changes have been very gradual in the U.S., but more 40

pronounced in Canada. The change among left-learning 30 32 26 Canadians following the 2015 federal election is perhaps 24 24 to be expected. More puzzling is the doubling of high 20 trust in political parties (from 14% in 2014 to 28% in 2019) 12 11 10 among right-leaning Canadians. It is possible that this 6 7 4 8 trend reflects some developments at the provincial rather 4 0 3 4 than the federal level, including the recent return to 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 power of Conservative parties to government in Alberta Source: Americas Barometer 2019 and Ontario. To what extent do you trust political parties in this country?

A lot of trust in political parties A lot of trust in political parties % 2010–2019 Canada % 2010–2019 U.S.A.

40 40

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10)

21 20 19 20

14 13 12 11 10 11 7 7 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 0 0 2 2 2 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you trust political parties in this country? To what extent do you trust political parties in this country?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 13 • Overall, the situation regarding trust in the mass media Trust in mass media is similar to that of trust in political parties: levels of % 2010–2019 high trust are very low in both countries, but gradually AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada increasing. In the U.S., the increase is much more AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. pronounced among those on the left: the proportion 60 of left-leaning Americans with a lot of trust in the mass 53 47 media tripled since the election of Donald Trump, from 44 42 40 seven percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2019. This possibly 40 reflects growing support for the media among this constituency, in the wake of many outlets’ adversarial 21 22 22 19 relationship with the president during this period. In 20 19 16 Canada, trust in the mass media initially rose among both 13 16 10 14 8 7 13 those on the left and the right, more or less in tandem, 5 5 until the most result survey: in 2019, trust fell back slightly 0 among those in the left, while continuing to rise among 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 those on the right. This could reflect the more critical Source: Americas Barometer 2019 news coverage the Liberal government received in the To what extent do you trust the mass media? months leading up to the 2019 survey, particularly as it related to its handling of the prosecution of a corruption case against a leading Canadian civil engineering firm.

A lot of trust in mass media A lot of trust in mass media % 2010–2019 Canada % 2010–2019 U.S.A.

Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 40 40

30 26 23 18 19 20 17 20 18 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 11 99 8 7 6 8 5 7 7 5 6 3 3 0 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you trust the mass media? To what extent do you trust the mass media?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 14 Trust in the legislature and the executive In both Canada and the U.S., the proportions of citizens that have a Trust in the legislature (Parliament/Congress) lot of trust in the legislature are increasing very gradually, especially % 2010–2019 among those on the left. In the case of trust in the executive, there AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada has been a convergence in Canada, as there is now no significant AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. difference between the proportion on the left and right that have a 60 lot of trust in the prime minister. The pattern in the U.S. – in terms 48 47 of trust in the president – could neither be more different nor more 43 illustrative of that country’s deep political polarization. 40 39 34 In both Canada and the U.S., the proportions of citizens 23 23 that have a lot of trust in the legislature (Parliament or 20 22 20 19 Congress) are relatively low. Levels of trust, however, are not 16 17 13 17 17 declining, but increasing very gradually. In both countries, 8 13 7 6 6 the recent increase in trust is more prominent among those 0 on the left – which speaks to the difference in the two 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 systems of government (parliamentary and presidential). Source: Americas Barometer 2019 • In Canada, the proportion of those on the left that have To what extent do you trust the Parliament / U.S. Congress? a lot of trust in Parliament increased significantly before and after the 2015 election which returned the Liberal A lot of trust in Parliament party to power (from 6% in 2014 to 29% in 2017). As with % 2010–2019 Canada several of the other measures noted earlier, this change occurred without being matched by an erosion of trust Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) among those on the right. Again, the net result is once of 40 convergence rather than divergence or polarization. 33 30 29 26 30 25

20 18 16 14 14 12 13 11 6

0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you trust the Parliament / U.S. Congress?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 15 • In the United States, there has been a gradual increase A lot of trust in Congress in trust in Congress among those on the right, and a % 2010–2019 U.S.A. sharper increase more recently among those on the left. This speaks to both the fact that the party in power in the White House does not necessarily align with those Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 40 in either the House of Representatives or the Senate; and the effect of the last mid-term elections, which enabled the Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives. Curiously, the net result of the recent changes in the U.S. is also one of convergence – in this 20 case, those on the left and the right have similar levels of 13 14 11 (relatively low) trust in Congress, though it is possible that 9 12 9 8 7 those on the left are focusing on the House, while those 6 5 3 4 2 2 on the right are focusing on the Senate. 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you trust the Parliament / U.S. Congress?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 16 In the case of the head of the executive – in the form of the Trust in the executive (President/Prime Minister) prime minister or the president – the patterns are somewhat % 2010–2019 different. In terms of the overall trend, the two countries AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada offer mirror images: in Canada, the proportion witha lot of AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. trust in the prime minister rose in mid-decade and then fell; 60 whereas in the U.S., the proportion with a lot of trust in the 49 president fell in mid-decade and then rose. These different 42 43 40 43 trends were driven by what is now a familiar pattern of shifts 40 35 34 33 on the left and right in each of the two countries. 31 29 26 26 • In Canada, the proportion of those on the left with 20 24 20 19 a lot of trust in the prime minister jumped from five 17 16 15 21 percent at the end of Stephen Harper’s period in power to 45 percent at the start of Justin Trudeau’s tenure. Subsequently, the proportion fell back somewhat, 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 landing at 30 percent in 2019. The proportion of those Source: Americas Barometer 2019 on the right with a lot of trust in the prime minister To what extent do you trust the Prime Minister / the President? has declined; but, interestingly, the start of this decline predates the change of government in 2015. Most important, right-leaning Canadians are currently much Trust in the Prime Minister % 2010–2019 Canada more likely to have a lot of trust in the prime minister than did left-leaning Canadians under the previous 100 government. The net result, as is the case on many of the Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) measures reviewed earlier, is convergence: there is now 80 no significant difference between the proportions of left-leaning and right-leaning Canadians that have a lot of 60 trust in the prime minister. 46 45 40 40 30 30 30 21 28 20 14 14 12 15 7 4 5 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019

Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent do you trust the Prime Minister / the President?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 17 • The pattern in the U.S. could neither be more different Trust in the President nor more illustrative of that country’s deep political % 2010–2019 U.S.A.

polarization. The proportion of those on the left with a lot 100 of trust in the president crashed from 55 percent during President Obama’s first term, to only two percent right Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 80 after the election of President Trump. Conversely, the 70 proportion of those on the right with a lot of trust in the 60 55 president ballooned from fewer than 10 percent during 53 48 President Obama’s first term, to 70 percent in 2019, under 42 President Trump. The change of government in the U.S. 40 32 produces a reversal of views about the president among 24 22 19 left- and right-leaning Americans, much like the reversal 20 10 11 of magnetic polarity causes the needle on a compass 7 7 6 2 to spin around to point in the opposite direction. On 0 this question, Americans were polarized before the 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 2016 election (with a 32 percentage-point gap in 2014 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 between the proportion on each side with a lot of trust in To what extent do you trust the Prime Minister / the President? the president), and even more polarized afterwards (with a striking 64-point gap in 2019).

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 18 National pride In Canada, majorities on both the left and the right express a lot National pride of pride in being Canadian, but the level dipped among those on % 2010–2019 the right and rose among those on the left after the 2015 federal 100 AA lot: lot CANADA - Canada NotNot at at all: all CANADA - Canada election. Patriotism, however, is a much more politicized issue the AA lot: lot U.S.A. - U.S. NotNot at at all: all U.S.A. - U.S. U.S.; and an attribute that is more strongly associated with only one 80 side of the political spectrum – the right. 72 71 71 72 68 70 67 Americans are renowned for their patriotism. But over the 60 58 decade, the proportion of Americans that say they have a lot of pride in being an American has dropped significantly, 40 from 70 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2017 (this question is not asked in every wave of the AmericasBarometer survey 20 in the U.S.). While the proportion in Canada that have a 9 lot of pride in being a Canadian has dipped slightly in 4 4 44 4 4 0 recent years – especially in Western Canada – it is now 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 considerably higher than the proportion in the U.S. that feel Source: Americas Barometer 2019 this way about being an American. To what extent are you proud of being a Canadian / an American? The respective trends among those on the left and right also play out very differently in the two countries. In Canada, National pride the pattern is perhaps as expected: majorities on both the % 2010–2019 Canada left and right express a lot of pride in being Canadian, but 100 the level dipped among those on the right and rose among Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 84 those on the left after the 2015 federal election led to a 81 82 80 74 73 change of government. Interestingly, however, the level of 71 71 70 73 67 pride among those on the right began to drop prior to 2015 68 60 – in fact, it dropped more significantly under the Harper 62 62 government than under the Trudeau government. Among those on the left, the proportion expressing a lot of pride in 40 being Canadian rose significantly after the 2015 election, but subsequently ebbed back down as initial enthusiasm with 20 the new Liberal government waned. Once again, the net result of these different swings is one ofconvergence : the 0 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019 left and right are now less divided on this question than they were are the start of the decade. Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent are you proud of being a Canadian / an American?

4 Environics Institute, Public Support for Canada’s Political System: Regional Trends; https://www.environicsinstitute.org/projects/project-details/ public-support-for-canada-s-political-system-regional-trends.

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 19 The patterns in the U.S. could not be more different. First and National pride foremost, it is striking that those on the right are significantly % 2010–2017 U.S.A. more likely to express a lot of pride in being American than 100 are those on the left – something which held true in the Left (1-3) Middle (4-7) Right (8-10) 86 Obama years, as well as during the Trump years. This in itself 83 suggests that patriotism is a much more politicized issue 80 77 68 the U.S.; and an attribute that is more strongly associated 64 with the right side of the political spectrum. Second, the 60 55 53 51 proportion that feel a lot of pride in being an American has declined among both those on the left and the right over 40 36 the course of the past decade, but the drop has been more pronounced among those on the left – especially following 20 the 2016 election. The net result is that, in the U.S., the gap between those on the left and right on this question has 0 widened. 2010 2012 2017 Source: Americas Barometer 2019 To what extent are you proud of being a Canadian / an American?

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 20 Comparing Canada and the United States This report represents the latest in a series of Environics Institute analyses of the similarities and differences between social and political values in Canada and the United States.

Summaries of previous research are available on the Insights page of the Environics Institute website, and include:

The authoritarian reflex: Will it manifest in Canada? by Michael Adams, Ron Inglehart and David Jamieson (June 15, 2019)

Does father know best? Canadian views – thankfully – continue to evolve by Michael Adams (October 8, 2018)

Sanctuary Cities: Why it’s harder for Trumpism to take root in Canadian cities by Michael Adams and Doug Norris (January 20, 2018)

Trump, Trudeau and patriarchy by Michael Adams (May 27, 2017)

More complete presentations of this research are provided in Michael Adams’ books on the subject, notably Could It Happen Here? Canada in The Age of Trump and Brexit, and Fire and Ice: The United States, Canada, and the Myth of Converging Values.

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 21 Discussion

How polarized are attitudes to our democratic system, and is In Canada, left-right polarization has generally declined over the extent of polarization increasing? On this issue, Canada the past decade; for instance, gaps between the left and the and the United States cannot be lumped together. right in satisfaction with democracy, support for or pride in the political system, and respect for political institutions First, the two main political parties in the U.S., the were wider during the years in which the Conservatives were Democrats and the Republicans, largely appeal to separate in power than they have been since the Liberals returned to ideological constituencies – respectively, those on the left power in 2015. This is because views improved significantly and the right. In contrast, each of the four largest national among those on the left, without deteriorating to the same political parties in Canada appeals mainly to voters who degree among those on the right. This is especially evident place themselves in the political centre. While politicians on the question of trust in the prime minister. In 2010, those in Canada may appear poles apart when they clash in on the right were 39 percentage points more likely than Parliament or on the media, the extent of this division is not those on the left to have a lot of trust in the prime minister; mirrored among the broader public. by 2019, the gap separating those on the left and those on More importantly, the two countries are vastly different the right had fallen to two points. when it comes to questions related to support for the This does not mean that Canada is devoid of political political system or trust in political actors. The U.S. is highly divisions. There are, for instance, significant regional polarized, with support among those on the left and right differences in support for the way democracy in Canada is generally rising or falling depending on which party is in working, not to mention cleavages on a wide range of issues power. Notably, this polarization was not ushered in with among groups with different backgrounds in terms of age, the election of Donald Trump – it was evident during the income and education. What this report shows, however, is Obama presidency as well. However, polarization has that it is important to approach Canada as its own case, and intensified under Trump, as measures such as satisfaction not as one of any number of Western democracies that are with democracy, support for or pride in the political system, straining under the influence of populism and the rise of a and especially trust in the president have declined sharply more polarized political discourse. For Canadians, political among left-leaning Americans, while jumping no less sharply developments south of the border are both shocking and among those on the right. mesmerizing. But they are not a reflection of trends at home.

Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S. 22

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