GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES JANUARY- 2012/VOL 2 -NO 1 133 AFP PHOTO/ UDO WEITZ UDO PHOTO/ AFP

Imagining ‘Eastphalia’

Stanley A Weiss t began in the Netherlands, as outraged Calvinists smashed is Founding Chairman statues to protest the wealth and excesses of Spain and the of Business Executives Catholic Church. In , starving soldiers laid waste to for National Security I entire regions. The ensuing war engulfed all of 17th-century Eu- (BENS), a nationwide, rope in 80 years of bloody religious conflict. After the assassina- nonpartisan organization tion of generals and the death of kings, after nearly one-third of of US business leaders applying their best business Germany’s population lay dead from the plague or the sword, practices to assist US ’s rulers finally came together. They intended only to end national security agencies. the wars; they did not expect to create a new global order. But He writes widely on when they finally signed the Peace of in 1648, Eu- public policy matters. rope — and the world — was on its way to being transformed. Westphalia proclaimed the rule of cujus regio ejus religio (“Whose realm, his religion”), meaning that citizens of a respective country were subject primarily to the laws and actions of their respective governments. Westphalia established fixed territorial boundaries for countries for the first time, with neither church nor chancel- lor able to interfere in another nation’s affairs. These tenets ushered 134 STRATEGIC REVIEW GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

in our modern system of nation-states. world of the 21st century. For insight, we Pope Innocent X memorably denounced need look no further than the Associa- Westphalia as “null, void, invalid, iniqui- tion of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), tous, unjust, damnable, reprobate, inane, which David Carden, the first resident US empty of meaning and effect for all time.” Ambassador to ASEAN, believes “is making Despite this papal condemnation, the mod- the case for a new definition of ‘regional- ern system of sovereign nation-states in- ism’.” The movement to integrate the 10 augurated by the Westphalian treaties en- nations of ASEAN — Indonesia, Singapore, dures over three and one-half centuries. Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Cam- The 20th century, however, gradu- bodia, Laos, Myanmar and the Philippines ally chipped away at the Westphalian idea. — into a single entity represents a differ- The principle of cujus regio gave rise to ent model of regional cooperation from the the corollary that government is sover- EU. Unlike the EU, ASEAN is less rooted eign to rule its people as it sees fit. It led in democracy, more tolerant of human to order among states, but also enabled rights violations and more committed to three centuries of atrocious human rights individual sovereignty. If successful, it may abuses. Out of the ashes of World War II redefine how other regions — from Latin and the Holocaust, countries came to- America to the Indian subcontinent to the gether to create the United Nations. Middle East — evolve in the 21st century. In 1948, exactly 300 years after the Peace It may also give rise to a new frame- of Westphalia, the UN ratified its Univer- work for a new century: Eastphalia. sal Declaration of Human Rights. It was the first global expression of rights funda- n August 8, 2011, 44 years to the day mental to all human beings and a challenge Oafter ASEAN was founded, the color- to the Westphalian concept of sovereignty. ful ASEAN flag was hoisted for the first For half a century, it was applied delicately, time alongside the banners of all member often through sanctions, in places like South states at hundreds of embassies and diplo- Africa. It wasn’t until the 1990s that the matic missions around the world. It kicked international community intervened directly off what ASEAN Secretary General Surin on behalf of humanitarian principles in Haiti Pitsuwan describes as “our drive to raise our and Kosovo — a thread that runs through own bargaining power from a larger base.” NATO’s recent intervention in Libya. Mean- At a time when the EU’s struggle to rescue while, the same decade witnessed the crea- free-spending members Portugal, Ireland, tion of a unified European Union (EU) in Italy, Spain and Greece has threatened to 1993, accelerating the trend toward interna- bring the whole continent tumbling down, tional organizations and regional associations. ASEAN is rushing headlong to create a It was at this moment that historians single economic community by 2015. began speaking of a post-Westphalian world. It may seem strange that flying the flag The question now facing us is not whether should lag so far behind the organization’s Westphalia is “empty of meaning and effect founding, but for many years, ASEAN was for all time,” but rather what meaning and a flagging confederation. The forum has effect it will have for our time, the globalized been derided as little more than a “talk GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES JANUARY-MARCH 2012/VOL 2 -NO 1 135

At a time when the EU’s struggle to rescue free- spending members Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Greece has threatened to bring the whole continent tumbling down, ASEAN is rushing headlong to create a single economic community by 2015. 136 STRATEGIC REVIEW GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

shop” whose deference toward sovereignty eliminated 95 percent of tariff and non- allowed successive waves of atrocity from tariff barriers, in an effort to increase intra- bad actors such as the Khmer Rouge and ASEAN trade from 25 percent to 35 percent Myanmar’s generals. Collective action on in the next four years. It has been working. economic or security policy was virtu- After reportedly implementing 75 percent of ally unheard of. ASEAN, a former Indo- its blueprint to become an economic bloc, nesian foreign minister dismissively noted, trade among ASEAN nations rose 33 per- is a mere diplomatic “cocktail party.” cent in 2010, while trade with China grew The people of ASEAN frequently reflect 25 percent in the first half of 2011. While its this sentiment. A young Filipino professional vision doesn’t yet include a unified currency, confided that ASEAN is only discussed in ASEAN has floated the idea of a common school textbooks, never in everyday con- visa and the free flow of skilled workers. The versation. It is telling that when Indonesia, latter is not an easy sell to ASEAN’s wealth- ASEAN’s largest member, held its 2009 ier members. As the EU has learned the presidential election, not one of the candi- hard way, wealthier nations tend to become dates mentioned the regional alliance, which beacons for job-seekers from poorer na- is headquartered in Jakarta. Yet in the past tions in a way that isn’t always manageable. A few years, ASEAN has made itself progres- new $500-million infrastructure bank funds sively more relevant across the region. The the building of roads, railways and ports to “talk shop” still focuses on dialogue, but it knit together the islands and archipelagos of has begun letting its actions do the talking. the Pacific Rim. These efforts have begun As the global financial system strug- to make real the prospect of rapid growth gles and China asserts itself in the South and access to the global marketplace. China Sea, ASEAN’s increasingly vulner- able member states are seeking a future in From 2009 to 2010, total cooperation. At the same time, ASEAN has so far maintained “the ASEAN Way” — the trade in ASEAN ballooned by region’s traditional respect for national one-third, to $2.09 trillion. sovereignty — while using the prospect of Savvy investors have caught economic prosperity to incentivize con- certed action on a range of policy goals. on, leading to a 38-percent Though ASEAN’s halting steps toward increase in foreign direct regional unity remain difficult to predict investment in 2010. with certainty, its growing readiness to act on critical regional challenges her- alds a new vitality. The lagging flag ap- By many measures, ASEAN is ascend- pears to be the leading indicator of a new ant. Whereas European nations formed the model of economic-centric regionalism. EU to arrest a continental slide into stagna- tion — stemming from a loss of economic s the saying goes, trade follows the power in an increasingly global economy — Aflag. Since implementing its ambitious ASEAN hums with the sounds of a region integration plan, ASEAN member states have on the rise. Its 600 million people produce GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES JANUARY-MARCH 2012/VOL 2 -NO 1 137

a combined gross domestic product of $1.7 Thailand and Cambodia, a regional first. trillion, exceeding that of India. ASEAN And rather than cowing to China’s preferred nations weathered the global economic method of dealing with each nation bilater- slowdown well, growing at 7.4 percent in ally, delegates have presented a unified voice 2010 with healthy future growth projected. in opposition to China’s aggressive move From 2009 to 2010, total trade ballooned into the South China Sea. This more unified by one-third, to $2.09 trillion. Savvy inves- posture has been noticed across the region tors have caught on, leading to a 38-percent by former critics like Anies Baswedan, rec- increase in foreign direct investment in 2010. tor of Indonesia’s Paramadina University, Economic integration has also served who says that “more difficult issues (are) as an instrument for improving govern- being tackled through official meetings.” ance and social policy. Though ASEAN’s Important partners, such as the US, have Secretariat still boasts only 70 profes- taken note. President Barack Obama, who sional employees overseeing a region of grew up in Indonesia just three houses down 600 million, its regional architecture – in from former Indonesian President Abdur- Professor Paul Evans’ characterization, “a rahman Wahid, has made the Asia Pacific noodle bowl” compared to the EU’s more a priority, as underscored by his assertive, complex and interwoven “spaghetti bowls” week-long trip to the region last November. – is becoming richer and more robust. And his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, In 2009, ASEAN established an In- in the words of the Center for Strategic and tergovernmental Commission on Hu- International Studies’ Ernest Bower, con- man Rights, which The Wall Street Journal siders ASEAN “the focal point where the rightly criticized as “toothless,” but which most important geostrategic chess games of is nonetheless indicative of new attitudes the twenty-first century will be played.” and institutions coming to the fore. Plans Along with these developments, Baswedan are also underway for a new ASEAN Su- notes that “there’s more involvement of preme Audit Institution that would reduce people, not just governments.” Within higher graft and promote good governance. It is an education, the ASEAN University Net- important development in a region where work promotes cross-country collaboration, six of 10 members scored in the bottom with a credit transfer system for students. third of the 2010 Transparency International Indonesia holds a competition for students Corruption Perception Index — a poten- to become young ASEAN ambassadors. As tial disincentive to global investors seeking The Jakarta Post noted last July, ASEAN has to put their money in emerging markets. hosted so many conferences in Bali that With these institutions has come a its flag has become familiar to residents. willingness to address taboo subjects. At Recognizing that ASEAN integration regional meetings last fall, for instance, sev- must stem from the people, the Secretariat eral delegates spoke out in their hope that has organized regional events ranging from Myanmar’s November 2010 general elec- small business conferences to batik festivals. tion would be free and fair. Last spring, the In October 2010, 80 talented musicians UN delegated to ASEAN a role in resolv- from around the region joined together ing the ongoing border dispute between at the Hanoi Opera House to play in the 138 STRATEGIC REVIEW GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

“US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in the words of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Ernest Bower, considers ASEAN “the focal point where the most important geostrategic chess games of the 21st century will be played.”

first ASEAN Symphony Orchestra. The proven less pretty in practice. ASEAN’s Asian beautiful strains of Brahms and Dvorak spin on regionalism has presented unique symbolized a broader harmony emerg- opportunities, but also vexing challenges. ing among the people of the Pacific. As Pitsuwan often notes, “The European But as much as playing Dvorak’s New model is not our model, it is only our inspi- World Symphony epitomizes ASEAN’s new ration.” For all its recent steps toward greater regionalism, it is new social media that offers institutionalization, few have contemplated a real opportunity for ASEAN citizens to anything approaching the EU’s multitude of meet and communicate across vast expanses multilateral and supranational governing bod- of ocean and distance. Recently, Indonesian ies. As the EU pulls out its collective hair try- President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono urged ing to restructure its intransigent members, the people of ASEAN to do just that, noting looser association has kept ASEAN free from that Indonesia boasts the world’s second- Europe’s current troubles. However, ASEAN largest population of Facebook users (now faces other difficulties challenging its tradi- more than 41 million) and sixth-highest tionally hands-off approach. Chief among number of people on Twitter. ASEAN’s own these are addressing the authoritarianism of Facebook page — “liked” by 2,877 (as of Myanmar and the aggressiveness of China. this writing), a fraction of ASEAN’s total ASEAN’s leadership, to an extent, recog- population — provides updates on ongo- nizes this. They have leveraged Myanmar’s ing initiatives and dialogues. These online scheduled turn to chair ASEAN in 2014 as spaces are among the best ways for Pitsu- an opportunity to encourage Myanmar’s gov- wan’s hope for fulfilling his vision “to make ernment to institute reforms, and they have ASEAN a household word,” and for peo- done so to good effect. Recently, Myanmar ple to “identify their futures with ASEAN, released some political prisoners, decreased or with the potentiality of ASEAN.” Internet censorship and halted construction on a dam condemned by environmental- ists. Most notably, pro-democracy leader ll of which raises the question: is the Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been allowed a AASEAN Way going away? ASEAN’s new voice and visibility, including participa- Charter emphasizes “non-interference in the tion in upcoming parliamentary elections. internal affairs of ASEAN Member States” In recognition of these reforms, Secretary and “respect for the independence, sov- Clinton became the first US Secretary of ereignty, equality, territorial integrity and State to visit Myanmar since 1955, where national identity of all ASEAN Member she met with President U Thein Sein and States.” This sounds wonderful — and quin- Suu Kyi and announced a modest thaw in tessentially Westphalian — on paper, but has US financial restrictions on the country. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES JANUARY-MARCH 2012/VOL 2 -NO 1 139

It is still undetermined Where Myanmar poses a test to ASEAN’s whether a belligerent Beijing internal affairs, China challenges its out- ward unity. Last year, Beijing claimed the will bring the association entire South China Sea, including islands in closer together or drive it territorial waters of five other nations, as a apart. But what is certain “core national interest.” It has been inter- preted as everything from a naked power is that ASEAN is acting, grab at the region’s shipping lanes (through and acting together. which one-third of all transit ships pass) to an attempt to seize possible oil reserves esti- mated at 213 billion barrels, to a cornerstone Though Myanmar’s sincerity remains an of China’s nuclear submarine strategy. But open question, these steps do indicate that “above all,” as Baswedan contends, “it repre- newly-energized ASEAN may have some sents a challenge to the unity of ASEAN.” potential to promote progress on human It is still undetermined whether a bel- rights: rather than applying the “stick” ligerent Beijing will bring the association preferred by Western nations, who have sanc- closer together or drive its member apart. tioned Myanmar with little effect — ASEAN But what is certain is that ASEAN is act- is in a much stronger position to promote ing, and acting together. At the November the “carrot” that membership can bring. East Asia Summit in Bali, ASEAN officials As a rising regional player, ASEAN holds took the lead in insisting on a “multilat- the keys to tremendous economic growth. eral resolution of the conflicting territo- In addition to signing free trade agreements rial claims,” with President Obama offering with China, Australia, and New Zealand, the support. The joint stand in Bali communi- US has expressed interest in a possible trade cated a strong message to its giant neigh- deal. But as Clinton made clear at a regional bor: for now, ASEAN will stand as one. security forum in Bali last July, Myanmar As it has evolved organically over the challenges the “cohesion and future” of last 44 years, ASEAN, Singapore’s Am- ASEAN — and a US-ASEAN partnership. bassador K. Kesavapany asserts, has been Nor is Clinton alone. “The foreign busi- “nothing if not pragmatic.” It appears that ness community is anxious to be part of the the association now understands there are rebuilding of (Myanmar),” an editorial in cases where an iron-clad regard for sover- The Nation newspaper in Thailand recently eignty threatens regional goals, especially declared. “But we need to see peace and economic ones. When such instances arise, the rule of law applied.” Time will tell if ASEAN is inclined to continue its famil- Myanmar is willing to revise past hab- iar dialogues and back-channel discussions, its if it means future economic success. As using the carrot of economic growth to a local business owner says, “The biggest encourage compliance and collective ac- proponents toward change in Myanmar tion. As an Australian Embassy official put it, are the young, who know what is hap- “the ASEAN approach is right— strength pening with the Arab Spring in the Mid- in numbers and all have shared interests.” dle East and want to join the world.” 140 STRATEGIC REVIEW GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES AFP PHOTO / BAY ISMOYO BAY / PHOTO AFP

n the inaugural volume of Strategic Review, anmar. Indonesia, a nascent democracy with IPresident Yudhoyono wrote a cover story the world’s largest Muslim population, and essay envisioning Indonesia on its centennial Thailand, with its Buddhist constitutional in the year 2045. Given the above develop- monarchy, abut the tiny sultanate of Brunei. ments, it is worth considering what ASEAN It is also a mosaic of various political — and other regions influenced by its model systems. Indonesia and Thailand are nas- of regionalism — might look like in 2048, cent democracies — yet in Thailand, one four centuries after Westphalia, and a century can be jailed for speaking out against the after the UN Declaration of Human Rights monarchy. Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos hinted at a post-Westphalian departure. To are all dictatorships. Singapore is semi- use a provocative term coined by University autocratic. All 10 members are different. of Chicago law professor Tom Ginsburg and Yet these disparate nations are steadily others, it is worth imagining “Eastphalia.” forging an integrated community, which Eastphalia is where sovereignty and asso- should give hope to other regions around ciation meet, holding the promise of inte- the world, many of which more closely gration as well as independence. ASEAN’s resemble the patchwork of ASEAN than biggest weakness and biggest strength have the relative homogeneity of the EU. always been its inclusivity. It is, commentator There is also an emerging market real- Leon Hadar writes, “a mosaic of . . . old and ity that is hard to ignore: unlike the EU, new civilizations in various stages of eco- which is trying to maintain its place in the nomic development.” Singapore, one of the global order and stop its descent as a global world’s richest nations per capita, coexists power, emerging market nations like the 10 alongside repressive and impoverished My- members of ASEAN are ascendant. For a GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES JANUARY-MARCH 2012/VOL 2 -NO 1 141

world shifting from West to East, the chal- sent conflicts may suggest they are improb- lenges, aspirations, and growing clout of able, given the bloodlust alone between ASEAN seem eminently more familiar to Pakistan and India. But 60 years ago, few other emerging regions than old-world capi- would have imagined France one day be- tals like Paris and London, which enhances ing joined at the hip with Germany. ASEAN’s ability to serve as a role model. The make-up of the modern Middle East — monarchies, military regimes, multi- Eastphalia is where sovereignty ethnic states — reflects that of ASEAN. If ASEAN’s trajectory over the last few years and association meet, holding is any indication, an Eastphalian world, the promise of integration by accommodating difference and defer- as well as independence. ring to national sovereignty, could facilitate the formation of regional associations. ASEAN’s biggest weakness They could begin as free trade areas and biggest strength have and common markets — Israelis and Ira- always been its inclusivity. qis trading with Indians and Indonesians — and gradually evolve into something more cohesive and more vibrant. As Gins- burg put it well, “Eastphalia may be West- It’s also a time when the once-thriving phalia without the universalism. A kinder, models of the West aren’t held in the same gentler Westphalia.” Because as troubling regard. While Western observers condemn as the implications of non-interference ASEAN over Myanmar and argue that a can often be in our post-UN Declaration wobblier version of the EU will never work world, it may be the only way to begin. because it lacks central authority to enforce Theorists from Seymour Martin Lipset common rules, ASEAN supporters darkly onward have hypothesized that a baseline point to democracy’s present struggles. of economic security may be a neces- “Authoritarian leaders and their popula- sary precursor to democratic and human tions here are appalled by America’s lack of rights reforms. Though others have chal- discipline and massive debt,” wrote Yohanes lenged this theory, the trajectory of the Sulaiman, a lecturer at Indonesia’s National region’s “Asian Tigers” — Singapore, Tai- Defense University, in a recent essay. “If wan, South Korea — support this line of democracy provides nothing but economic thinking. All have democratized as they crisis, political squabbling and gridlock, become wealthier. By 2048, perhaps ASE- why would anyone want it? Better to stick AN’s human rights commission will be with the authoritarian system of China or as vigorous as the one in South Korea. the semi-authoritarianism of Singapore.” Projecting so far into the future, as It’s not hard to imagine, for instance, a Pope Innocent’s 17th-century prognostica- South Asian confederation of India, Paki- tion reminds us, naturally has its risks. As stan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka the region that gave us both Westphal- and the Maldives — or a future bloc in the ian and post-Westphalian paradigms con- Middle East — modeled on ASEAN. Pre- vulses, the future of regionalism remains 142 STRATEGIC REVIEW GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

very much in doubt. The EU could emerge could exceed our wildest imaginations; and stronger, Myanmar could retrench, Bei- what began in 1967 as a loose association jing could play a cynical game of bilateral- of nations could model a new regionalism ism and belligerence that rends the fabric for a changing world. As it creates its own of ASEAN unity. Or the ASEAN model, passage between the Westphalian model on if present encouraging trends continue, one side and the EU on the other, ASEAN may yet prove itself viable and desirable. might one day replace the principle of In 2048, students from Myanmar could cujus regio ejus religio with an expression travel and study freely in the US; trade popular in Indonesia — mendayung antara between ASEAN and other regional blocs dua karang —“rowing between two reefs.”