Pedigree PROFILES THURSDAY, MAY 16 PREAKNESS STAKES CONTENDERS Special Digital Report brought to you by & 2 2013 Pedigree Profiles rb will face a small field of would-be spoilers May 18 as he seeks to add the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) to his Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) score. Nine horses O will go to the post to contend for the 138th running of Pimlico’s classic, five fewer than the race’s 14-contestant maximum. Profiles of the entrants appear in the following pages. Accompanying each analysis is a four-generation pedigree chart with inbreeding notation. Sire line and female family notes at the end of each profile provide additional depth to the bloodlines analysis. Two popular pedigree-driven ratings appear in a chart on page 3. Dosage is a system that attempts to predict a horse’s aptitude by calculating the influence of prominent sires in his pedigree. TrueNicks, a service owned in part by Blood-Horse Publications, rates the strength of a pedigree’s sire/broodmare sire cross, or “nick.” Brisnet.com provides past-performance statistics for all Preakness contenders in the report’s final section. Post positions, morning line odds, and our experts’ selections round out the rich array of infor- mation contained in this pedigree overview of the 2013 Preakness contestants. Pedigree Analysts’ Picks Scot T. Gillies Avalyn Hunter Alan Porter Departing Orb Orb Orb Govenor Charlie Oxbow Itsmyluckyday Goldencents Will Take Charge Tom Hall Eric Mitchell Ian Tapp Orb Orb Goldencents Oxbow Oxbow Will Take Charge Departing Will Take Charge Orb Evan Hammonds Claire Novak Christine Wittmer Orb Orb Orb Will Take Charge Departing Oxbow Departing Mylute Will Take Charge 3 2013 Pedigree Profiles 138th Preakness Stakes Contenders by the Numbers Morning Line Best Race Post Horse Dosage DI CD Earnings Odds Performance Record 1 Orb Even A 11-12-15-0-2 3.21 0.75 G1SW 8-5-0-1 $2,335,850 2 Goldencents 8-1 A++ 1-2-4-1-0 1.67 0.38 G1SW 7-4-1-0 $1,250,000 3 Titletown Five 30-1 B 2-0-4-0-0 2.00 0.67 G2SP 7-1-2-1 $87,398 4 Departing 6-1 A++ 5-7-14-0-0 2.71 0.07 G3SW 5-4-0-1 $628,000 5 Mylute 5-1 C+ 1-1-4-0-0 2.00 0.50 G2SP 10-2-3-2 $477,695 6 Oxbow 15-1 A++ 6-0-8-0-0 2.50 0.86 G3SW 10-2-1-1 $383,500 7 Will Take Charge 12-1 A++ 6-10-8-0-2 3.33 0.69 G2SW 8-3-1-0 $545,371 8 Govenor Charlie 12-1 A++ 1-2-4-0-1 1.67 0.25 G3SW 3-2-1-0 $444,800 9 Itsmyluckyday 10-1 C 4-3-7-0-0 3.00 0.79 G3SW 11-5-2-1 $625,600 DOSAGE: A technique for classifying Thoroughbred pedigrees by type based on aptitudinal characteristics inherited from selected sires, called “chefs- de-race.” The degree of inheritance attributed to each of these “chefs” was essentially constant in all pedigrees, the absolute value (or Dosage figure) varying from sire to sire. “Chefs,” chosen on the basis of their observable prepotence for type, are assigned to one or two of five aptitudinal groups (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, and Professional) covering the spectrum (from left to right as you read the dosage profile) of speed to endurance. The assignments are made to reflect the traits that these stallions predictably and consistently transmit to their offspring. Only one winner of the Kentucky Derby since 1940 (Strike the Gold), and only three winners of the Belmont Stakes over the same time frame (Damascus, Conquistador Cielo, Creme Fraiche) have had a DI above 4.00. This is in direct contrast to stakes winners in general, of which about one-quarter to one-third have a DI greater than 4.00 and for which the average DI is slightly above 4.00. TRUENICKS: Compatibility of stallions from one male line with mares from other sire lines has shaped the breed since the Eclipse/Herod cross of the late 18th century. Called nicks, these successful crosses have made a profound impact on the development of the Thoroughbred. TrueNicks is a nick rating that utilizes the database of The Jockey Club—the world’s most complete records of Thoroughbreds and their performances—to produce a sophisticated rating based on all foals for a given cross. A TrueNicks rating is derived from two statistical elements: a Sire Improvement Index (SII) and a Broodmare Sire Improvement Index (BSII). Both of them compare the percentage of progeny stakes winners to starters. An SII of 2.0 indicates the sire/sire line has twice the percentage of stakes winners out of mares by the broodmare sire/sire line as he does when bred to all other mares. A BSII of 3.0 indicates the percentage of stakes winners out of a stallion’s daughters when bred to the chosen sire/sire line is 3.0 times as high as the percentage of stakes winners produced by the same mares when bred to all other studs. The TrueNicks rating is then calculated by multiplying the SII by the BSII, effectively recognizing the real opportunity and performance of the given cross. A test group of more than 100,000 horses of racing age revealed the following: While only 13% of the entire Thoroughbred population earn “A” ratings (A to A++), 37% of the stakes winners rate as “A’s;” and horses rated “B” or better (B to A++) represent just 30% of the entire population, yet 3 out of 4 (77%) stakes winners rate “B” or better. 4 2013 Pedigree Profiles Nearctic DepaRTING Northern Dancer, 1961 Natalma Danzig, 1977 Trainer: Albert M. Stall Jr. Admiral's Voyage 4 Pas de Nom, 1968 Petitioner Jockey: Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. War Front, b, 2002 Fappiano Rubiano, 1987 Owner: Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider Ruby Slippers Starry Dreamer, 1994 Forli Breeder: Claiborne Farm & Adele B. Dilschneider (KY) Lara's Star, 1981 True Reality DEPARTING In this year’s Preakness Stakes (gr. I) whose small field consists Seattle Slew A.P. Indy, 1989 mainly of Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) Weekend Surprise Pulpit, 1994 veterans, one sharp newcomer to the classic series has the Mr. Prospector Preach, 1989 potential to rain on Orb’s Triple Crown parade. Narrate Leave, ch, 2004 Despite Departing’s having qualified to run on the first Saturday Mr. Prospector Forty Niner, 1985 in May at Churchill Downs—he earned Road to the Kentucky Derby File Tour, 1990 points when third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) in March—the bay Full Pocket Fun Flight, 1985 gelding’s connections opted to bypass the Run for the Roses, with condi- Fun and Tears tioner Al Stall Jr. weighing an attempt at the Preakness on the quality of carryovers from the Derby. Departing comes to Maryland with impressive credentials. The Kentucky-bred son of War Front won first out in a late December maid- GOLDENCENTS en special weight over six furlongs at Fair Grounds, then annexed an Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill allowance/optional claimer covering an extended mile at the same track 2 in February. An easy score in the Texas Heritage Stakes at Sam Houston Jockey: Kevin Krigger Race Park in early March completed the career-commencing hat trick Owner: W.C. Racing, Dave Kenney, and RAP Racing and added black type to Departing’s résumé. The show effort four weeks later in the Louisiana Derby did not slow the gelding’s momentum: He Breeder: Rosecrest Farm & Karyn Pirrello (KY) returned after another three weeks to claim the Illinois Derby (gr. III) at Prior to the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) in early April, many Hawthorne. people thought Goldencents was unlikely to get the nine-fur- The Louisiana and Illinois derbies, both contested at nine furlongs, long distance. But after a perfect stalking trip, Goldencents had demonstrated Departing’s apparent ability to extend his pedigree’s miler plenty left in the tank to repel the challenge of favored Flashback. Not only 1 tendencies. Sire War Front was able to stretch his sprinting speed to 8 ⁄2 did the colt appear to have something to spare as he flashed under the line, furlongs to win the listed Princelet Stakes as a sophomore, but the Dan- but his time of 1:48.76 was the fastest for any of the grade I nine-furlong zig son’s best performances were between six and seven furlongs in a sophomore preps this year. The easy effort made Goldencents one of the series of six graded wins and places as a 4-year-old. In that predilection, favorites on the first Saturday in May. War Front was typical of Danzig’s offspring. Owned by Rick Pitino’s RAP Racing, W.C. Racing, and Dave Kenney, The lower half of Departing’s pedigree is similarly removed from Goldencents is from the first crop of Into Mischief, also the sire of Jerome stamina influences. Most of dam Leave’s close relatives were sprint- Stakes (gr. II) winner and Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) third Vyjack. Third ers and milers. The mare ran only once, so her preferred distance is on the freshman sire list last year, Into Mischief continues a branch of the unknown, but her full brother Laity was a stakes winner at a mile and Storm Cat male line extending through his sire, multiple grade I winner 1 a sixteenth who finished his career with a low-level win at 5 ⁄2 furlongs.