March 2013

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since our Overview February Forecast 3 The Russian Federation will preside over the Representative and head of mission, Martin 5 Security Council in March. Kobler; 7 An open debate on Afghanistan is planned, to • developments in the , most likely 8 be presided over by Russian Foreign Minister by the head of DPA, Jeffrey Feltman; and 9 UNDOF (Golan Heights) Sergei Lavrov. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon • Mali, also by Feltman. 11 Yemen and the Executive Director of the UN Office on Briefings in consultations are likely on: Drugs and Crime, Yury Fedotov, are expected as • the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the lat- 12 Somalia briefers. est report on the restoration of constitutional 13 and A debate on Haiti is planned with a briefing order, most likely by the Assistant Secretary- 15 South Sudan by the acting head of MINUSTAH, Nigel Fisher. General for Political Affairs Tayé-Brook 17 Libya Also expected is the quarterly debate on Kosovo Zerihoun; (originally scheduled for February and postponed • the most recent report on resolution 1701, 18 Mali until March), with a briefing by Farid Zarif, the most likely by the Special Coordinator for 20 Guinea-Bissau Special Representative and head of UNMIK. Lebanon, Derek Plumbly; 21 Liberia A briefing is expected on the work of the 1737 • the most recent Secretary-General’s report on 23 Sierra Leone Iran Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambas- UNDOF (Golan Heights), most likely by the 24 Haiti sador Gary Quinlan (Australia). head of DPKO, Hervé Ladsous; Also expected is a briefing on cooperation • the situation in Yemen, by Special Adviser 26 Cyprus between the UN and the OSCE, by its Chairper- Jamal Benomar; 28 Notable Dates son-in-Office Leonid Kozhara (Ukraine). • the situation between Sudan and South Sudan, Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely by DPKO on one occasion and by Special on: Envoy Haile Menkerios on another; and • the DRC Framework Agreement by the Sec- • the work of the 751/1907 Somalia/Eritrea retary-General who witnessed the 24 Febru- Sanctions Committee, by its chair, Ambassa- ary signing ceremony between the DRC and dor Kim Sook (Republic of Korea). Angola, Burundi, CAR, Congo, Rwanda, Also possible is a briefing in consultations by South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda Alexander Downer, the Special Adviser to the and Zambia; Secretary-General on Cyprus, on the prospects • South Sudan and UNMISS, most likely by the for progress in negotiations between the Greek Special Representative and head of mission, Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities. Hilde Johnson; Formal sessions will need to be held to adopt • Sierra Leone and UNIPSIL, by its head Jens resolutions to reauthorise AMISOM (Somalia) Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, and by the chair of and renew the mandates of UNAMA (Afghan- the PBC country configuration, Ambassador istan), UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone), UNSMIL Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada); (Libya) and the Panel of Experts supporting the • Libya and UNSMIL, by the Special Represen- 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. tative and head of mission, Tarek Mitri; Throughout the month, Council members will • the work of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Com- be following closely developments in Syria and a mittee by its chair, Ambassador Eugène-Rich- meeting on this issue may be scheduled. 28 February 2013 ard Gasana (Rwanda); This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. • Liberia and UNMIL, by the Special Represen- tative and head of mission, Karin Landgren, For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please and by the chair of the PBC country configu- subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” ration, Staffan Tillander (Sweden); series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. • Iraq and UNAMI, by the Special

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our February Forecast

Terrorism Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), on Security Policy of the EU, briefed the Coun- On 1 February, Council members issued a the work of the Committee over the previous cil (S/PV.6919). She discussed a range of press statement condemning in the stron- three months. The briefing was Ambassador issues of recent significance: the EU’s engage- gest terms a terrorist attack against the US Lucas’ first since assuming the chairmanship ment in Somalia and anti-piracy efforts; the embassy in Ankara, Turkey (SC/10906). of the Committee on 1 January. EU’s financial and logistical support to the The attack resulted in one death and several African-led International Support Mission injuries. Protection of Civilians in Mali; nuclear non-proliferation efforts in On 12 February, the Council held its semi- the context of the E3+3 negotiations with DRC annual open debate on the protection of Iran and the EU’s opposition to recent tests On 5 February, Council members were civilians in armed conflict (S/PV.6917 and by the DPRK, EU facilitation of dialogue briefed in consultations by Under-Secretary- Resumption 1). The meeting was chaired by between Serbia and Kosovo; and the evolving General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan of the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Ash- Ladsous on developments on the ground and Republic of Korea and featured briefings by ton also stressed “the EU’s strong and long- on MONUSCO. The Secretary-General’s the Secretary-General, High Commissioner standing commitment” to “effective multilat- Chef de Cabinet, Susana Malcorra briefed for Human Rights Navi Pillay and the Inter- eralism with the United Nations at its core” on the Secretary-General’s diplomatic efforts national Committee for the Red Cross Direc- and specifically affirmed the regional organ- to obtain a political framework agreement. tor for International Law and Cooperation, isation’s support for the Security Council in On 22 February, the Council was briefed (S/ Philip Spoerri. More than 70 member states fulfilling its mandate. PV.6925) by Roger Meece, the Special Rep- also spoke. The Council adopted a presi- resentative and head of mission, on the Sec- dential statement reconfirming its commit- Sudan/Darfur retary-General’s 15 February MONUSCO ment to the protection of civilians, focusing On 14 February, the Council adopted reso- report (S/2013/96). On 24 February, Coun- in particular on the need to fight impunity for lution 2091 extending the mandate of the cil members issued a press statement wel- violations of international humanitarian and Panel of Experts of the 1591 Sudan Sanc- coming the signing of the framework agree- human rights law, the humanitarian impact tions Committee until 17 February 2014 (S/ ment in Addis Ababa that same day by the of conflict and implementation of peacekeep- PV.6920). Earlier in the month, the chair of Secretary-General and the chairpersons of ing protection mandates (S/PRST/2013/2). Committee, Ambassador María Cristina Per- the AU Commission, the Southern African The statement expressed the Council’s par- ceval (Argentina), circulated to the Council Development Community and the Interna- ticular concern about attacks against medical the 5 February report of the Panel of Experts tional Conference on the Great Region personnel and facilities and schools, teach- assisting the Committee (S/2013/79). The (SC/10924). In the statement, Council mem- ers and other protected school personnel as report outlined several violations by Sudan bers also supported the swift designation of well as violence against journalists and other of resolution 1591. It also indicated that dur- a UN Special Envoy to support implementa- media professionals. It requested the Secre- ing 2012 the Justice and Equality Movement, tion of the framework agreement. Council tary-General to submit his next report on the a rebel group in Darfur, had operated a large members also expressed concern about the protection of civilians by 15 November and base around Bentiu in South Sudan’s worsening security and humanitarian situ- for reports to be submitted every 18 months State. ation in the eastern DRC, reiterating their thereafter. It also asked that the next report demand that the M23 cease attempts to cre- include an assessment of concrete measures Climate Change ate a parallel administration and that the taken by peacekeeping missions to imple- On 15 February, Ambassador Mark Lyall M23, FDLR and all other armed groups ment their mandate to protect civilians and Grant (UK) and Ambassador Masood Khan cease violence and destabilising activities. the impact of those measures. () co-chaired an Arria formula meet- ing on the “Security Dimensions of Climate DPRK (North Korea) Burundi Change”. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon In a 12 February press statement, Coun- On 13 February, the Council adopted resolu- made remarks at the opening of the meeting. cil members strongly condemned the tion 2090, extending the mandate of BNUB A panel of speakers included DPRK’s nuclear test that day as a grave vio- until 15 February 2014 (S/PV.6918). The the Honorable Mr. Tony deBrum, Minister lation of resolutions 1718, 1874 and 2087 Council requested the Secretary-General to in Assistance to the President of the Mar- (SC/10912). They recalled that resolution provide a briefing by the end of July 2013 shall Islands; Professor Hans Schellnhuber, 2087 expressed the Council’s determination and a report by 17 January 2014 on the Head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate to take “significant action” in the event of a implementation of BNUB’s mandate. Impacts Research; Ms. Rachel Kyte, World further nuclear test by the DPRK and said Bank Vice-President for Sustainable Devel- they would begin work immediately on an Cooperation between the UN opment; and Mr. Gyan Acharya, Under-Sec- appropriate response in a resolution. Dur- and Regional and Subregional retary-General and High Representative for ing consultations on 21 February, Council Organisations least developed countries, landlocked devel- members received the regular quarterly brief- On 13 February, Catherine Ashton, High oping countries, and small island developing ing by the 1718 Sanctions Committee chair, Representative for Foreign Affairs and states. During the meeting, a video message

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Status Update since our February Forecast (con’t) from President Anote Tong of Kiribati and so. Closed consultations followed the brief- regarding a series of bombings in Damas- Foreign Minister Bob Carr of Australia on ing where it seems Morocco suggested ele- cus that killed at least 50 people failed to the security implications of climate change ments to the press expressing concern about achieve consensus following objections from was shown. In addition to interventions by the circumstances surrounding the detention the US that the statement should also make Security Council members and other mem- and death on 23 February of Arafat Jaradat, a reference to attacks on civilians conducted ber states, Wael Hmaidan, Director of Cli- Palestinian man in Israeli custody. No agree- by the government of Syria. Similarly, Coun- mate Action Network-International, spoke ment was reached. cil members were also unable to agree to a on behalf of civil society. draft press statement proposed by France on Syria 1 February on the humanitarian situation, in Israel/Palestine Council members were briefed on 27 Febru- particular a call for cross-border humanitar- On 26 February, the Council received a brief- ary in closed consultations by Valerie Amos, ian access to areas under the opposition’s ing from Under-Secretary-General for Politi- the Under-Secretary-General for Humani- control. Russia, while supportive of OCHA’s cal Affairs Jeffrey Feltman on the situation tarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coor- efforts, appeared to have a problem with the in the Middle East (S/PV.6926). Feltman dinator, on the humanitarian situation in Council making a public statement on the said there was heightened risk across mul- Syria. In addition, High Commissioner for cross-border issue. tiple fronts in the region. On Israel/Palestine, Refugees António Guterres and Zainab he said there were no hopes of negotiations Hawa Bangura, the Special Representative Working Methods/Wrap-Up Session on the horizon and characterised 2013 as on Sexual Violence in Conflict, also briefed. On 28 February, the Council held a “wrap- the year which could preserve or extinguish As of 24 February, the office of the UN High up session” of the Republic of Korea’s Feb- hopes for the two-state solution. Regarding Commissioner for Refugees had registered ruary presidency under the agenda item Syria, he said the destructive military spi- more than 740,000 Syrian refugees in neigh- “Implementation of Note S/2010/507 (Wrap- ral threatens to pull Lebanon into its vor- boring countries, while elsewhere the UN up Session)”. Non-Council members were tex. Feltman also said efforts by the Secu- has estimated that up to 70,000 people have invited to attend the private meeting. rity Council and its members could make died in the Syrian conflict. A draft press state- a difference while there is still time to do ment proposed by Russia on 21 February

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action for the presidential and provincial council implement this framework, he highlighted In March, the Council is scheduled to renew elections and indicated the importance of the importance of fostering national recon- the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission establishing “a credible and robust electoral ciliation, holding successful elections in 2014 in Afghanistan (UNAMA), which expires on architecture” that “ensure[s] the broadest and ensuring continued cooperation between 23 March. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon possible enfranchisement of Afghan actors Afghanistan and regional and international and Ján Kubiš, Special Representative of across the country and create[s] conditions actors. the Secretary-General for Afghanistan and for the fullest possible participation”. He also Violent incidents have continued in head of UNAMA are expected to brief dur- underscored the need for inter-Afghan rec- Afghanistan in recent months. According ing the quarterly debate on the situation in onciliation and welcomed resolution 2082, to an article published by the Times on 27 Afghanistan. It is possible that Yuri Fedotov, which made travel-ban exemptions possible December 2012, at least 86 Afghan security the Executive Director of the UN Office on for individuals who are willing to negotiate personnel had been killed during 2012 by Drugs and Crime, may brief as well. Russian but have been listed under the 1988 Taliban their colleagues in so-called “green-on-green Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to sanctions regime. attacks”, many of which were carried out by chair the debate, which is likely to be held at Following Kubiš’s briefing, Ambassador Taliban who infiltrated the security forces the ministerial-level. Zahir Tanin (Afghanistan) spoke about the or by security personnel who shifted their government’s efforts to enhance its security loyalties to the Taliban. Two separate suicide Key Recent Developments responsibilities, as the International Security bombing incidents, on 26 December target- The Council held its last debate on the situ- Assistance Force (ISAF) winds down its cur- ing Forward Operating Base Chapman, a US ation in Afghanistan on 19 December 2012. rent mission. He also argued that Afghani- military base in Khost province in the eastern Kubiš noted that the Independent Election stan needs to create a comprehensive polit- part of the country, and then on 16 January Commission had set 5 April 2014 as the date ical framework to stabilise the country. To targeting a National Directorate of Security

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2069 (9 October 2012) renewed the mandate of ISAF in Afghanistan until 13 October 2013. S/RES/2041 (22 March 2012) renewed UNAMA’s mandate until 23 March 2013. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/907 (6 December 2012) was the latest UNAMA report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6896 (19 December 2012) was the latest UNAMA debate. OTHER A/HRC/22/37 (28 January 2013) was a report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan prepared in cooperation with UNAMA.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Afghanistan (con’t) facility in Kabul, left four Afghans dead and in detention centres throughout Afghani- US forces in Afghanistan, replacing US Gen- 40 wounded. stan. Based on interviews with 635 detainees eral John R. Allen, who had led ISAF since On 24 February, three car bombs were between October 2011 and October 2012, July 2011. detonated by the Taliban: one targeted the the report noted that 326 of these individuals intelligence service in Jalalabad, Nangarhar had “experienced torture and ill-treatment Human Rights-Related Developments province; a second, the compound of the in numerous (Afghan) facilities”. It high- On 20 March, during its 22nd session, the Human Baraki Barak district governor in Logar prov- lighted in particular the need to strengthen Rights Council will consider the 28 January report ince; and a third, a police facility in Logar accountability mechanisms in order to com- of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, province. A police officer and two security bat effectively the use of torture. (The cur- which was prepared in cooperation with UNAMA. guards died in these attacks. rent report follows a similar report produced The report noted that between 1 January and Also on 24 February, a man driving a vehi- by UNAMA and OHCHR in October 2011, 30 November 2012, anti-government elements cle filled with explosives, who was targeting which also found widespread use of torture increasingly targeted civilians and civilian loca- a National Directorate of Security facility in in Afghan detention facilities.) tions and increasingly used improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks. Children continued Kabul was shot to death by a guard before The Afghan government took steps to to suffer disproportionately from the conflict, with the explosives were detonated. respond to the allegations in the report. On more than 20 children killed and injured on aver- Preparations for the 2014 presidential 11 February, Abdul Qadir Adalatkhwa, the age per week. The report also voiced concerns and provincial council elections continued. director of a panel investigating the accusa- about lack of due process and mistreatment of On 23 January, Afghanistan’s Independent tions, confirmed that of 284 detainees inter- conflict-related detainees and deplored the exe- cutions of 14 prisoners last November, the first Election Council (IEC) announced that voter viewed in Kabul, Kandahar and Herat prov- since June 2011. Finally, the report noted that registration would begin by the end of April. inces, 136 had been tortured or mistreated. while the government took steps to strengthen A UN electoral needs assessment mission However, he said that this misconduct had the implementation of laws designated to protect visited Afghanistan from 18-28 January to occurred during the arrest or interrogation women, entrenched discrimination and harmful study the electoral situation and offer pro- of these individuals rather than during their practices have continued to marginalise women and girls. (Further details on civilian casualties are posals for UN assistance. (A previous such detention. Adalatkhwa added that many contained in UNAMA’s annual report on the pro- mission took place from 27 November to 5 of those interviewed had not had access to tection of civilians in armed conflict in Afghanistan December 2012.) defence counsel. On 17 February, Karzai released on 19 February. The report notes the On 11 January, US President Barack issued a statement in which he required the continuing high human cost of the conflict. Obama and Afghan President Hamid Kar- videotaping of interrogations, ordered that Although in 2012 there was a 12 percent decline in the overall number of civilian deaths compared zai met in Washington. During a joint press those who had committed torture be pros- to 2011, the report documents a 108 percent conference, they noted that Afghan security ecuted and mandated that defence attorneys increase in civilian casualties from targeted kill- forces would assume a leading role in the be provided to detainees. ings by insurgents and a 700 percent increase country’s security by mid-2013, with ISAF In recent weeks, the Afghan govern- in deliberate targeting of government employees forces operating in more of an advisory and ment has placed restrictions on the opera- compared to the previous year.) training capacity. They also released a joint tions of foreign troops in Afghanistan. On statement indicating that “they would sup- 16 February, Karzai said that he would pro- Key Issues port an office in Doha for the purpose of hibit Afghan security forces from requesting A key issue is the importance of enhancing negotiations between the High Peace Coun- NATO airstrikes to support their military the capacity of the Afghan security forces so cil (the body entrusted by the Afghan gov- operations. (His comments came only days they can take on more responsibility from ernment to promote reconciliation) and the after the 12 February NATO-Afghan joint ISAF as it draws down and assumes more of authorised representatives of the Taliban,” operation in Kunar province that killed three an advisory and training role. calling on the insurgents to take “those steps Taliban commanders but also claimed the Another key issue is how much progress necessary to open a Taliban office.” (On 4 lives of ten civilians, including five children.) will be made with respect to reconciliation, February, UK Prime Minister David Cam- The Afghan government also announced given apparent divisions within the Taliban eron hosted a meeting between Karzai and on 24 February that it would no longer allow regarding whether or not to seek peace. President Asif Ali Zadari of Pakistan, dur- US special forces to operate in Maidan War- Also an important issue is helping to ing which the three leaders also gave their dak province, which is adjacent to Kabul ensure that preparations for the 2014 elec- support for such an office, although further province. The restriction, which was sched- tions are managed effectively, as UNAMA is details about this office were unclear at press uled to take place within two weeks of its mandated to provide electoral support upon time.) announcement, apparently stems from con- the request of the government. On 20 January, UNAMA and the UN cerns in the Afghan government that US spe- Another important issue is whether the Office of the High Commissioner for Human cial forces had collaborated with Afghans in measures outlined by Karzai to address tor- Rights (OHCHR) released a report entitled the area who had allegedly murdered and ture will be implemented effectively and will Treatment of Conflict-Related Detainees in tortured civilians. have an impact in eradicating this problem. Afghan Custody: One Year On, which found On 10 February, US General Joseph F. An additional key issue is what effect the that torture remains a widespread challenge Dunford, Jr. assumed command of ISAF and recent cuts in UNAMA’s budget, determined

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Afghanistan (con’t) by the General Assembly, will have on the torture and emphasising the importance issues such as reconciliation, electoral assis- effectiveness of the mission. (In part because of implementing measures to eradicate tance, human rights, counteracting drug traf- of funding constraints, several UNAMA torture of detainees in Afghan facilities; ficking, and the promotion of good gover- provincial offices have been closed, restric- • highlighting the need for consistent nance and the rule of law. tions have been put on recruitment for the resources to enable UNAMA to con- Several members seem eager to start mission and jobs in the mission have been duct its mandate, given recent cuts in the planning for UNAMA’s presence in 2014 eliminated.) UNAMA budget; and and beyond, and some appear concerned • emphasising the importance of inclu- about what they perceive as uncertainty Options sive and fair electoral planning processes about UNAMA’s future role in Afghani- The most likely option for the Council is to between now and April 2014, including in stan. Although negotiations on the UNAMA adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the selection of the chair of the IEC. draft resolution had not begun at press time, UNAMA for an additional year. The Council Given the importance of the upcoming it does not seem that there is an appetite is also likely to update the resolution in light elections to the transition process in Afghani- among several Council members to make of developments over the past several months stan—and the significant controversies that significant changes to the resolution at this related to electoral preparations, the recon- surrounded the 2009 elections—the Council point. It seems that several Council mem- ciliation process and the transition to Afghan may also consider requesting a report specifi- bers believe that next year will be the time to ownership in the development, security and cally on electoral preparations by the end of consider more significant adjustments to the governance spheres. 2013. mandate, especially given the completion of The Council may also consider language ISAF’s current mission in 2014. in the resolution: Council Dynamics Australia is the lead country in the Coun- • expressing concern at the findings of There is widespread support on the Council cil on Afghanistan. the recent UNAMA-OHCHR report on for UNAMA’s core mandate as it relates to

Iran

Expected Council Action the Committee’s review of publicly available (referred to as a “structured approach”) to In March, the chair of the 1737 Iran Sanc- statements made by Iranian officials regard- resolve outstanding issues on the possible tions Committee is due to present the quar- ing potential violations of the arms embargo. military dimension of the latter’s nuclear terly briefing on the work of the Committee Subsequently, on 20 December, as rec- programme. The two sides met in Tehran on to the Council. This will be the first briefing ommended by the PoE in its report, the 13 December, 16-17 January and 13 Feb- by Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia) Committee added two companies—Yas Air ruary. In a 21 February report to the IAEA since he assumed the chairmanship of the and SAD Import Export Company—to the Board of Governors (S/2013/103), trans- Committee on 1 January. sanctions list, for their role in transporting mitted to the Council on the same day, the No Council action is expected. and supplying prohibited arms from Iran agency’s Director-General said no agreement to Syria, in violation of Council resolutions had been reached and that there had been Key Recent Developments (SC/10871). no progress on clarification of outstanding In the last Council briefing on the 1737 On 28 December, also in response to the issues. The report noted with concern that Committee, held on 13 December 2012, PoE’s recommendations, the Committee the IAEA, despite repeated requests, had not then-chair Ambassador Néstor Osorio issued an implementation assistance notice been granted access to Parchin, a military site (Colombia) said that the Committee had on conventional arms and related materiel, southeast of Tehran that Iran is believed to continued to discuss the 12 June 2012 final which noted a number of sanctions violations have used for nuclear activities. report (S/2012/395) by its Panel of Experts involving prohibited arms transfers from Iran, In a 2 February speech at the Munich (PoE) and that some members had proposed reminded member states of their obligations Security Conference, US Vice President Joe that the Committee adopt a series of imple- under the existing sanctions and urged them Biden reiterated that the US would be will- mentation assistance notices that could help to maintain a high level of vigilance and ing to engage in direct bilateral talks with member states in implementing the sanc- cooperate fully with the PoE. Iran, an offer that supreme leader Ayatol- tions measures. Some members had also Talks continued between the IAEA and lah Ali Khamenei dismissed in a 7 February asked the PoE to make a compilation for Iran aimed at reaching agreement on a plan statement.

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/1929 (9 June 2010) imposed the fourth and most recent round of sanctions on Iran and established the Panel of Experts. S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) was the first round of sanctions on Iran, which also established the Sanctions Committee. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6888 (13 December 2012) was the most recent quarterly briefing by the chair of the Sanctions Committee. OTHER S/2013/103 (21 February 2013) was the latest IAEA report on Iran. S/2013/88 (12 February 2013) was the letter from Iran responding to Yemen’s allegations against it. S/2013/53 (25 January 2013) was the annual report of the Sanctions Committee to the Council. SC/10871 (20 December 2012) was the Sanctions Committee press release announcing the listing of two additional entities. S/2012/395 (12 June 2012) was the final report of the Panel of Experts.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Iran (con’t)

juvenile offender on 16 January for a crime alleg- On 6 February, the US announced a edly committed when he was 17 years old. This between the lists of individuals originally further tightening of its unilateral sanctions was the first juvenile execution since September designated under Council resolutions (such against Iran. The new provisions will restrict 2011, but more than 400 people were reportedly as the leadership of the Islamic Revolution- Iran’s ability to use oil revenues held in for- executed in Iran in 2012, the majority for drug- ary Guard Corps) and those who currently eign financial institutions and prevent repa- related offences. OHCHR also expressed con- hold those positions identified in the desig- cern about five other individuals at risk of immi- triation of those funds to Iran. The US also nent execution who were allegedly subjected to nations. It could also issue additional imple- announced that one individual and four enti- torture in detention and were convicted following mentation assistance notices to help guide ties had been targeted for sanctions for their unfair trials. member states. Additionally, the Committee involvement in the Iranian government’s cen- On 4 February, the Special Rapporteur on could consider for designation the Chemi- sorship activities. freedom of opinion and expression, the Chair- cal Industries and Development of Materi- Rapporteur of the Working Group on Arbitrary The 1737 Committee met with the PoE Detention, the Special Rapporteur on human als Group as suggested by the PoE or make on 13 February. Discussions mainly focused rights defenders and the Special Rapporteur additional designations proposed by Council on a notification letter the Committee had on the situation of human rights in Iran called members. received from Yemen concerning its inter- on the government to immediately stop journal- diction on 24 January of a consignment ists’ arrests and release those already detained. Council and Wider Dynamics Security forces had raided five newspaper of weapons believed to be from Iran. PoE offices the previous week and arrested at least Council dynamics continue to be driven by a members informed the Committee that they 17 journalists. fundamental difference in approach between would travel to Yemen to conduct an inves- On 11 March, during its 22nd session, the those who favour the dual-track approach tigation at the end of the month. The PoE Human Rights Council will consider the report of (including Australia, the US and EU mem- also submitted the compilation of statements the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human bers) and those who oppose further punitive rights in Iran, Ahmed Shaheed. On 20 March, it referred to by Osorio in his 13 December will consider the interim report of the Secretary- measures (such as China, Pakistan and Rus- 2012 briefing. General on the situation of human rights in Iran. sia) and are critical of the increasingly strin- In a 12 February letter to the Council, gent sanctions being imposed by the US and Iran categorically rejected Yemen’s alle- Key Issues the EU. (Russia has warned of the “extrater- gations about the arms shipment. It also A key issue for the Council is Iran’s defiance ritorial effect” of such sanctions.) said, however, that it was prepared “to fully of its resolutions and inconsistent coopera- Council members also appear divided cooperate and investigate the case by pro- tion with the IAEA, including its continuing over alleged violations of the arms embargo. viding necessary information and evidence” refusal to allow access to the Parchin site. While France, the UK and the US in the (S/2013/88). A fundamental issue for the Council is last Council meeting condemned transfers of On 26 and 27 February, the “P5+1”— whether to support the dual-track approach— arms from Iran to Syria and non-state armed comprising the Council’s permanent mem- pressuring Iran to comply with existing res- groups in Gaza, Russia asserted that the bers and Germany—and Iran met in Almaty, olutions and obligations through sanctions 1737 Committee had not recently received Kazakhstan for a new round of high-level while at the same time pursuing a diplomatic any reports “of any implication of Iran in talks on the nuclear programme. (These were solution—advocated by the US and its EU the illegal trafficking of conventional weap- the first such high-level talks since a meeting partners or whether, as argued by China, ons”. These differences are also evident in in Moscow on 18 and 19 June 2012 ended Russia and others, further punitive measures the Committee, where discussions continue without any progress.) At the talks, the P5+1 will be counterproductive at this stage. over how to respond to some recent incidents. offered an easing of US and EU restrictions At the 1737 Committee level, a key issue The outcome of the 26-27 February (reportedly on trade in gold and other pre- is ensuring implementation of the existing high-level talks is likely to set the tone for cious metals) if Iran would agree to signifi- sanctions. This includes whether to respond the March meeting. Although the focus of cantly restrict its uranium enrichment. While to any of the recent incidents reported to the the meeting will be on the work of the 1737 Iran said it needed more time to consider the Committee or taking up any of the remain- Committee, it will also provide an opportu- offer, the Iranian foreign minister expressed ing recommendations submitted by the PoE. nity for members to express their views on optimism that an agreement could be the larger issues and the way ahead. In its reached. The two sides agreed to meet again Options statement to the IAEA Board of Governors at technical level on 18 and 19 March to dis- Developments at the Council level in the meeting last November, the US said that if cuss the proposal and then resume high-level foreseeable future are unlikely as long as there is no progress by March in resolving negotiations in Almaty on 5 and 6 April. diplomatic attempts to resolve differences outstanding issues with Iran, it would pursue between the P5+1 and Iran continue. appropriate action, including reporting the Human Rights-Related Developments At the Committee level, however, mem- lack of progress to the Security Council. On 22 January, the Office of the High bers could follow up on those PoE recom- The US has the lead in the Council on Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) mendations that have not yet been imple- Iran. expressed deep dismay at the execution of a mented, such as addressing the discrepancies

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Iraq

Expected Council Action On 6 February, Muqdad al-Sharifi, the chief position expired on 31 December. The Sec- In March, Martin Kobler, the Special Rep- electoral officer of the Independent High retary-General is expected to report by June resentative of the Secretary-General for Iraq Electoral Commission, expressed concern on the issues previously covered by the High- and head of the UN Assistance Mission for that the demonstrations could hamper efforts Level Coordinator’s mandate. On 15 Janu- Iraq (UNAMI), will brief the Security Coun- to conduct the 20 April provincial elections. ary, the long-delayed Iraq-Kuwait Bound- cil on the Secretary-General’s most recent The security situation in Iraq has also sig- ary Maintenance Project, the subject of a report on UNAMI. No outcome is expected. nificantly worsened in recent months, with 1 December 2012 Council press statement UNAMI’s mandate expires on 24 July. 39 pilgrims killed during the Shi’a festival of (SC/10843), reportedly began; it is expected Arba’een on 31 December. Ifan al-Issawi, a to be completed by the end of March. Key Recent Developments member of parliament, was assassinated on Kobler last briefed the Council on the work 15 January in an attack that killed five oth- Human Rights-Related Developments of UNAMI on 29 November 2012. In that ers. A suicide bomber killed at least 35 indi- The report on the human rights situation in Iraq, briefing, he highlighted the ongoing politi- viduals in an attack on a Shi’a mosque in Tuz prepared by UNAMI in cooperation with the Office cal stalemate, including an Arab-Kurdish rift, Khurmato in northern Iraq on 23 January. of the High Commissioner for Human Rights and covering the period from January to June that has endangered the progress towards Kobler issued individual statements follow- 2012, was released on 19 December 2012. High provincial elections scheduled for 20 April ing each attack condemning the violence. Commissioner Navi Pillay called on the govern- and the strengthening of state institutions. On 25 January, the Secretary-General ment to address the serious human rights viola- Kobler also noted the deteriorating security released a statement strongly condemning tions highlighted in the report and in particular to situation in Iraq, continuing issues related “the recent wave of terrorist attacks across declare a moratorium on all executions, with a view to abolishing the death penalty in the near to Iranian refugees in Camp New Iraq and Iraq, which have killed hundreds of people future. Camp Hurriya (formerly and and left many more wounded”. An attack on ) and tentative progress on a police headquarters in Kirkuk on 3 Feb- improving bilateral relations between Iraq ruary killed at least 36 people and injured Key Issues and Kuwait and the former’s fulfilment of its 105. Multiple bombings on 8 February that The key issue for the Council is how UNAMI Chapter VII obligations. killed at least 26 people prompted a state- can continue to contribute to the stability of Since the briefing, the political situation ment from Kobler appealing to Iraqi leaders Iraq and play a role in facilitating an end to in Iraq has not improved. On 18 Decem- to prevent sectarian violence from spreading. the current political stalemate. ber, President Jalal Talabani suffered a stroke Most recently, on 17 February, a string of car The worsening security situation and its and was transferred soon after to Germany bombs targeting outdoor markets in Baghdad impact on the political situation and upcom- for treatment, where he remains. Talabani killed at least 37 people and injured more ing elections also constitutes a significant had played a mediating role between various than 100. issue for the Council. political constituencies, especially between On 9 February, a mortar attack on Camp The issue of Camp New Iraq and Camp the Arabs and the Kurds, and his absence Hurriya—temporary home to more than Hurriya, and the future disposition of the has reportedly exacerbated an already tense 3,000 exiles belonging to theMujahedin-e more than 3,000 exiles housed there, will political situation. Khalq Iran (an organisation opposed to the likely also be of major concern to Coun- Also in late December, the arrest of body- government in Tehran)—killed six people cil members in the wake of the attack on 9 guards for Finance Minister Rafia al-Issawi, and injured several others. The same day the February. a Sunni, sparked demonstrations against Secretary-General issued a statement calling the Shi’a-led government of Prime Minister on the government to investigate the incident Options Nouri al-Maliki. The protests have contin- and bring the perpetrators to justice. The most likely option is for the Council to ued in the weeks since, spreading to multiple There has been some progress in recent receive Kobler’s briefing and take no action. provinces and expressing a variety of griev- months on the relationship between Iraq However, the Council could issue a state- ances, including over human rights violations, and Kuwait. Gennady Tarasov, then High- ment on any number of issues, including: perceptions of mistreatment of Sunnis by the Level Coordinator for Iraq/Kuwait missing • encouraging reconciliation between vari- security forces and an unequal distribution persons and property, briefed the Council in ous political factions and urging national of power in the government among various consultations on 18 December on the Sec- dialogue; communities. On 8 January, Kobler called retary-General’s latest report on this issue • supporting elections slated for April; and on those taking part in the protests to refrain (S/2012/931). The report noted that “Iraq • given the recent escalation in sectarian from violence and on security forces to show continues to make steady progress towards violence, condemning recent attacks and restraint in maintaining law and order. (Four regaining its rightful place in the region… calling on all parties to do what they can people were killed on 25 January when Iraqi and the broader international community”. to prevent further strife. troops opened fire on protestors in Fallujah.) Funding for the High-Level Coordinator

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAQ Security Council Resolution S/RES/2061 (25 July 2012) renewed UNAMI for a period of 12 months. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/931 (14 December 2012) was a report on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property. S/2012/848 (16 November 2012) was a report of the Secretary-General on UNAMI. Security Council Press Statements SC/10843 (1 December 2012) welcomed the joint request of Iraq and Kuwait to reactivate the Iraq-Kuwait Boundary Maintenance Project. SC/10680 (20 June 2012) renewed the funding for the High-Level Coordinator for Iraq-Kuwait missing persons and property to 31 December 2012. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6875 (29 November 2012) was a briefing from the head of UNAMI, Martin Kobler.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Iraq (con’t)

Council Dynamics ways in which its mandate to provide good (given how contentious it had become) and The Council is generally cautious in its offices and facilitate political dialogue might will likely wait until they receive the Secretary- approach to Iraq and is reluctant to make be sharpened or focused. General’s next report on the subject, expected pronouncements on the issue. Regarding Divisions on the Council regarding Iraq/ by June, before taking it up again. If prog- UNAMI, there is general consensus that the Kuwait issues were apparent in December ress continues to be made on the Iraq/Kuwait mission is contributing to the stability of the when some Council members supported add- Boundary Maintenance Project, most Coun- country, and the consideration of the Secre- ing the mandate of the High-Level Coordina- cil members will take this as evidence of Iraq’s tary-General’s report on UNAMI is viewed tor to the responsibilities of UNAMI, while good intentions and may allow the Council to as a routine issue for the Council. However, others saw a need for renewing the position formally end the mandate previously assigned some Council members interested in look- or developing some other interim mechanism to the High-Level Coordinator. ing ahead to the renewal of UNAMI’s man- to replace it. Council members appear unwill- The US is the lead on Iraq issues in general, date in July may be interested in discussing ing to address this issue again in the near term and the UK is the lead on Iraq-Kuwait issues.

Lebanon

Expected Council Action chief of Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces) elections currently scheduled for June. (The In March the Special Coordinator for Leb- and several others. 14 March coalition takes its name from the anon, Derek Plumbly, is expected to brief Though the political consequences of date of the “Cedar Revolution”, which fol- Council members in consultations on the that incident have not been as dire as many lowed the assassination of former Prime most recent report of the Secretary-General speculated they might be, the effects of the Minister Rafiq Hariri on 14 February 2005, on resolution 1701 (which called for a ces- assassination have continued to contribute to and is considered to be anti-Syria.) sation of hostilities between Hezbollah and tensions in Lebanon. On 20 February, a mili- There remains some risk that the June Israel in 2006), due by the end of Febru- tary court judge in Lebanon brought charges elections could be delayed. On 19 February ary. Though no outcome is expected, a press against Michel Samaha, a former Lebanese a parliamentary joint committee approved statement following the meeting is possible. government minister, and Brigadier General a draft electoral law known as the ortho- The mandate of the UN Interim Force Ali Mamlouk, a senior Syrian military official, dox proposal that would allow voters only to in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August alleging that they had conspired to kill Leba- vote for candidates from their own religious 2013. nese political and religious leaders and encour- denomination. (Lebanese parliamentary age sectarian violence. (Lebanese Prime Min- seats are allocated to a variety of Christian Key Recent Developments ister Najib Mikati has suggested that the 19 and Muslim denominations, though voters Council members last considered Lebanon October assassination could be related to the have previously voted for each seat regard- on 29 November 2012 when they received arrest of Samaha in August 2012.) less of their own affiliation.) On 20 February, briefings in consultations from both Plum- More significantly, the National Dia- Dory Chamoun, the leader of the opposition bly and the Assistant Secretary-General for logue—the ongoing talks that began in 2006 National Liberal Party, accused Hezbollah Peacekeeping Operations, Edmond Mulet, between Lebanon’s political leaders and and others of introducing the controversial on the November report of the Secretary- that often focus on the issue of Hezbollah’s law in an effort to delay the elections. Pre- General on the implementation of resolution arms—has not convened since before the viously, on 18 February, Plumbly met with 1701 (S/2012/837). That report welcomed assassination. Talks scheduled for November EU representatives and others to discuss the general calm that prevailed in UNIFIL’s 2012 and subsequently for the first week of logistical preparations and the registration area of operations but also drew attention January were cancelled following boycotts by process related to the June elections. Speak- to the lack of progress towards a permanent the 14 March political coalition. As a prereq- ing to the press following the meeting, Plum- ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and uisite for returning to talks, the coalition has bly asserted that, “holding the elections on the destabilising effects of a 19 October car called for the resignation of Mikati’s cabi- time is a must for stability and democracy bomb assassination that killed Brigadier net and the installation of a neutral cabinet in Lebanon”. General Wissam al-Hassan (the intelligence to oversee preparations for parliamentary The ongoing conflict in Syria has also

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2064 (30 August 2012) extended the mandate of UNIFIL for 12 months. S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) established the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged the disarmament of all militias and extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2008/8 (15 April 2008) concerned the implementation of resolution 1701. Security Council Press Statement SC/10799 (19 October 2012) condemned the 19 October terrorist attack in Beirut. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/837 (14 November 2012) was a report on the implementation of resolution 1701 and covered the reporting period from 29 June to 30 October 2012. S/2012/773 (17 October 2012) was the most recent report on resolution 1559. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly (UK) Special Envoy for the Implementation of Resolution 1559 Terje Rød-Larsen (Norway) UNIFIL Force Commander Major General Paolo Serra (Italy) Size and Composition of UNIFIL as of 31 December 2012 Authorised: 15,000 troops Current: 11,003 military personnel Troop Contributors (as of 31 January 2013): Armenia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Brunei, , China, Croatia, Cyprus, El Salvador, Finland, France, FYR of Macedonia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, , Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Malaysia, , Nigeria, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Turkey Duration: March 1978 to present; mandate expires 31 August 2013. Cost: 1 July 2012-30 June 2013: $524 million (A/C.5/66/18)

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Lebanon (con’t) continued to negatively impact the political in the assassination of former Prime Minister Council pronouncement on a 1701 report and security situation in Lebanon. According Hariri because the prosecution had not yet was a 15 April 2008 presidential statement. to the Office of the UN High Commissioner met requirements that it disclose all evidence However, the Council could adopt a for Refugees (UNHCR), as of 26 February to the defence. The prosecution supported statement that addresses a number of issues, there are more than 314,000 Syrian refugees the decision to postpone. The trial had previ- including: either registered with UNHCR or await- ously been set to begin on 25 March; no new • urging a resumption of the National ing registration in Lebanon, more than in date has been decided. Dialogue; any other of Syria’s neighbours. In October, • encouraging the political process in UNHCR began registering Syrian refugees in Key Issues advance of parliamentary elections sched- south Lebanon (though not within UNIFIL’s A key current issue impacting the implemen- uled for June; or area of operations), and the upcoming report tation of resolution 1701 continues to be the • reaffirming the international communi- on resolution 1701 may thus pay increased spillover of the Syrian conflict into Lebanon. ty’s commitment to Lebanon in light of attention to the Syrian refugee situation and An ongoing issue has been the Israeli spillover from Syria and related refugee its impact on UNIFIL. occupation of areas north of the Blue Line situation by calling on states to honour On 17 February, Lebanese security forces (the border demarcation between Israel and humanitarian aid pledges made at a Janu- reported the worst fighting near the Syrian Lebanon), including the village of Ghajar, in ary donor conference. border with Lebanon since the start of the violation of resolution 1701. Syrian conflict. Three Hezbollah fighters and The fact that Hezbollah maintains a signif- Council Dynamics 12 Syrian rebels were reportedly killed in the icant military capacity beyond the control of Council members continue to agree on a clashes near the Syrian town of Qusayr, while the Lebanese Armed Forces is also a key issue. variety of issues related to Lebanon. There two artillery shells fired by Syrian opposi- Finally, regular Israeli over-flights in Leb- is consensus on the Council that UNIFIL tion forces reportedly landed in the Lebanese anese airspace continue to be a source of contributes to stability between Israel and town of Qasr without causing any casualties. concern. Lebanon and that the Council must remain Following the fighting, multiple news sources vigilant regarding the effects of spillover from reported that elements of the rebel Free Syr- Underlying Problems the Syrian conflict into UNIFIL’s area of ian Army had issued a statement threatening Prime Minister Mikati and other government operations. to target Hezbollah in Lebanon with mortars figures officially practice a policy of disas- Regarding the political situation, Council in retaliation for Hezbollah’s support of the sociation from the Syrian crisis. However, members also agree that even though there Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. events like the 19 October assassination, sec- have been no advances with regards to the Sectarian violence related to the Syrian tarian violence in northern Lebanon and the National Dialogue or disarmament, the fact conflict has also continued to plague the burgeoning refugee situation throughout the that the situation has not significantly wors- northern Lebanese city of Tripoli: in the first country all provide evidence of the pressures ened in light of spillover from Syria is rather week of December 2012, at least 19 people such a policy must withstand. Achieving a positive. were killed in clashes between residents of formal ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon Regarding the Tribunal, Council members the predominantly Alawite neighbourhood of is unlikely so long as the Syrian conflict con- have generally underscored the importance Jabal Muhsin and the predominantly Sunni tinues to both destabilise Lebanon and derail of its independence and foresee no Council neighbourhood of Bab al-Tabbana. the Israel-Syria peace track. role in relation to its activities. On 21 February, Pre-Trial Judge Daniel France is the lead country on Lebanon Fransen of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon Options in the Council. issued a ruling postponing the start of the The most likely option for the Council is to trial in absentia of four individuals charged take no action on the 1701 report. The last

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action report on UNDOF under a more frequent Key Recent Developments In March, Council members will receive a reporting cycle following the adoption of The Council renewed UNDOF for six briefing in consultations from the Under- resolution 2084 on 19 December 2012. No months in resolution 2084. In response to Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Oper- outcome is likely. the deteriorating situation in the area of ations Hervé Ladsous on the Secretary- The mandate of UNDOF expires on 30 operations, including incidents across the General’s most recent report on the UN June. ceasefire line and the presence of both armed Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan opposition fighters and Syrian Arab Armed Heights (UNDOF). This will be the first Forces in the area of separation, resolution

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 9 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t)

2084 also changed the reporting require- multiple news reports indicated that such no additional action. One additional option ment on UNDOF, requesting a report from incidents were becoming increasingly fre- would be for the Council to adopt a state- the Secretary-General every 90 days rather quent. On 16 February, seven wounded ment reiterating the need for cooperation than every six months. The resolution also Syrians who approached Israeli positions between Israel and Syria and for all parties strengthened language regarding the safety within the Golan Heights were transported to exercise restraint or expressing concern and security of UN personnel and the need by the IDF to an Israeli hospital for treat- for the safety and security of UNDOF per- for all parties to respect their obligations ment. Though it appeared the seven had sonnel, or both. under the 1974 Disengagement of Forces been wounded in the ongoing Syrian con- Agreement. flict, authorities did not reveal whether the Council Dynamics During the most recent open debate on injured were members of the Syrian armed The Council generally agrees on the neces- the situation in the Middle East on 23 Janu- forces, the opposition or civilians. Speaking sity and utility of UNDOF in contributing ary, several speakers made passing reference to the press a day later, Israeli Prime Minister to stability in the region in the absence of a to the situation in the Golan Heights. Ambas- Benjamin Netanyahu said that such border peace agreement between Israel and Syria. sador Bashar Ja-afari (Syria) called for the crossings would only be allowed in “excep- (Regarding the Israel-Syria peace track, restitution of the Golan Heights to Syria and tional cases”. Turkey mediated the last attempt at talks expressed alarm that Robert Serry, Special in early 2008. Turkey suspended its efforts Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Pro- Key Issues after Israeli incursions into Gaza in Decem- cess, had not addressed the situation in his A key issue will be how Council members can ber 2008. Previously, the last attempt was in briefing. best take advantage of the increased atten- 2000.) An Israeli airstrike on 30 January report- tion the Golan Heights will receive due to the Though the US holds the pen on the edly targeting a convoy of anti-aircraft weap- more frequent reporting. Golan Heights, the last two resolutions onry, thought to be in transit to Hezbollah The spillover from the Syrian crisis into renewing UNDOF (resolutions 2052 and in Lebanon, also damaged the Syrian Scien- UNDOF’s area of operations will continue to 2084) have been jointly authored by the tific Studies and Research Centre, allegedly be of primary concern for the Council. Syr- US and Russia, suggesting some surprising Syria’s primary research centre for work on ian rebel forces control many of the villages consensus on an issue that is increasingly biological and chemical weapons. On 31 Jan- within the area of separation, where Syrian impacted by the highly divisive conflict in uary, the Secretary-General expressed grave military forces are prohibited from entering Syria. Most Council members strive to keep concern over the airstrike and called on all (Syrian civilian authorities are responsible for the Syrian conflict and the Golan Heights as parties in the region to prevent any escalation policing and administering the area). discrete issues—a position that remains dif- of the situation. Related issues include the deteriorating ficult in practice. Syria summoned the UNDOF force relationship between Israel and Syria fol- The most recent effort to achieve a commander to protest the incident. Syria lowing the 30 January airstrike and ongoing press statement on the Golan Heights (in also sent a letter to the Secretary-General concern over the safety and security of UN November 2012) featured a US draft that and the President of the Council, assert- personnel in the region. (On 29 Novem- faced opposition from Russia and failed to ing that it had a “right to defend itself, its ber 2012, four UNDOF personnel were achieve consensus. Some Council mem- territory and sovereignty” and that it held wounded near Damascus International Air- bers feel a Council statement would not do Israel “fully responsible for the consequences port while rotating out of the mission. Since much to impact the situation on the ground of this aggression”. On 3 February, Presi- the incident, mission personnel have been in the Golan Heights and that any neces- dent Bashar al-Assad cited the incident as travelling to and from the mission via the sary messages to the parties involved could evidence that Israel was actively supporting airport in Tel Aviv. On 25 February the UN and should be communicated bilaterally. the insurgency in an effort to destabilise the confirmed that an UNDOF staff member Additionally, many Council members view country. was unaccounted for, but provided no fur- the changed reporting cycle as a caution to In recent months, spillover from the con- ther details.) Syria regarding the escalating incidents in the flict in Syria has continued to affect the situ- region. That the situation has been relatively ation in the Golan Heights. Minor incidents Options calm since December suggests that the mes- continued throughout the period, and Israeli The most likely option is for the Council sage may have been effective. Defence Forces (IDF) sources quoted in to receive the report and briefing and take

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2084 (19 December 2012) renewed UNDOF until 30 June 2013, requested reporting every 90 days and strength- ened language regarding the security of UN personnel. S/RES/2052 (27 June 2012) extended UNDOF for six months and noted spillover from the Syrian crisis. S/RES/350 (31 May 1974) established UNDOF. S/RES/338 (22 October 1973) called for a ceasefire and comprehensive peace. S/RES/242 (22 November 1967) called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied territories. Security Council Letter S/2013/70 (31 January 2013) was a letter from Syria protesting an Israeli airstrike on a convoy and research centre north of Damascus. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/897 (27 November 2012) was a report on UNDOF covering the period from 1 July to 31 December 2012. S/11302/Add.1 (30 May 1974) contained the Agreement on Disengagement between Syrian and Israeli Forces Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6906 and Resumption 1 (23 January 2013) was the most recent quarterly open debate on the Middle East. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNDOF Force Commander Major General Iqbal Singh Singha (India) Size and Composition of Mission 1,013 troops (as of 31 December 2012), assisted by 77 military observers of the UN Truce Supervision Organisation’s Observer Group Golan (as of 20 November 2012) Troop contributors: Austria, Croatia, India, and the Approved Budget 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013: $46 million (A/C.5/66/18)

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Yemen

Expected Council Action parliament in January 2012 in exchange for Food Programme, the food security outlook In March, the Council expects a briefing in Saleh’s resignation—as an obstacle to bring- for the first half of 2013 is expected to be consultations on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, ing those responsible to justice. slightly worse than in 2012, aggravated by Special Adviser to the Secretary-General The question of what will happen to Saleh the impact of poor prospects for local agri- on the situation in Yemen. No outcome is remains unclear. In a speech delivered to cultural production. expected. supporters in Sana’a on 19 February, Saleh The fifthministerial-level meeting of the reportedly stated that leaving Yemen is not an Friends of Yemen is to be held on 7 March in Key Recent Developments acceptable option for him. London, hosted by the UK and co-chaired by The Council was briefed on 7 February Many are concerned about the influence and Yemen. by Ambassadors Mohammed Loulichki of the former president and close associ- (Morocco) and Mark Lyall Grant (UK), co- ates, such as Major General Mohsen Ali Key Issues leads of the Security Council visit to Yemen al-Ahmar and the al-Ahmar family more A key issue for the Council remains the on 27 January. Both confirmed the achieve- generally, in the political transition cur- National Dialogue and the transition pro- ment of the mission’s objectives, which rently underway. With extensive networks of cess and for both to proceed according to were to evaluate implementation of resolu- patronage and tribal influence—including the original timeline in preparation for gen- tion 2051 and to assess progress on politi- among the armed forces—they are report- eral elections scheduled for February 2014. cal transition. Following this, the Council edly contributing to a sense of mistrust The roles of Saleh, Al-Beidh and other received a briefing in consultations from across the country. While Hadi issued presi- potential spoilers to the political transition Benomar. dential decrees in December 2012 aiming continue to be an issue and cause concern On 15 February, after negotiations on to centralise the armed forces, many agree among Council members. references to reports of money and weap- that he has yet to unify and maintain them A related issue involves reports of money ons being brought into Yemen from outside under his control. and weapons entering Yemen, threatening the country to undermine the transition, the Commemorating the one-year anniversary Yemen’s stability. Council adopted a presidential statement (S/ of the election of Hadi, two parallel demon- PRST/2013/3). Welcoming the announce- strations were held in Aden on 21 February: Options ment by Yemeni President Abdrabuh Man- one by members of the southern separation A likely option is for the Council to receive sour Hadi that the National Dialogue movement and a second by members of the the briefing and take no action, preferring Conference would start on 18 March, the Islah party, in support of national unity and to wait and see how the discussions of the statement highlighted the importance of Hadi. Security forces fired on protesters call- National Dialogue evolve. inclusivity during the transition process and ing for southern independence, killing four Another option is to hold further discus- stressed that it was important that the transi- and wounding nearly 30. sions related to the imposition of sanctions tion proceed according to the original time- On 23 January, the Yemeni coast guard— on spoilers to the transition, following up on line, ensuring the National Dialogue leads in coordination with the US Navy—inter- the Council’s repeated warnings (in resolu- to a constitutional referendum followed cepted a ship carrying missiles and rock- tion 2051, during the visit to Yemen, and in by elections by February 2014. The state- ets allegedly sent by Iran for the purpose its presidential statement of 15 February). ment also sent a strong message to potential of undermining the transition. Iran denies spoilers, singling out former President Ali any connections to the weapons. Following Council Dynamics Abdullah Saleh and former Vice President a request from the Security Council, the Council members continue to follow the Ali Salim Al-Beidh, and reiterating Council Panel of Experts that monitors compliance situation in Yemen closely, remaining firm members’ readiness to consider sanctions with the 1737 Iran sanctions regime arrived in their support for the National Dialogue against individuals who interfere in the polit- in Sana’a on 22 February to investigate the and the political transition process. Coun- ical transition process. incident. Concerns about the impact of such cil members have demonstrated their unity In a report published in February focus- weapons being brought into the country and consistency on the issue of sanctions ing on Yemen’s response to the “Friday of were reflected in the 15 February presiden- and seem to be prepared to carry through Dignity” killings of protesters on 18 March tial statement. with their threat to consider measures against 2011, Human Rights Watch called on the The humanitarian situation in Yemen potential spoilers. Security Council to impose sanctions on cur- continues to be dire, with food insecurity The UK is the lead country on Yemen. rent and former officials implicated in the and malnutrition levels across the coun- attack. It cited the immunity law—passed by try deteriorating. According to the World

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused on the second phase of the transition. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/3 (15 February 2013) welcomed the announcement of the launch of the National Dialogue Conference and reiterated the Council’s readiness to consider imposing sanctions against spoilers to the transition. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6916 (7 February 2013) included briefings by Morocco and the UK on the Security Council mission to Yemen. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Adviser to the Secretary-General and UN Envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar (Morocco)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Somalia

Expected Council Action UN assistance mission in Somalia to replace to build the capacity of Somalia’s own forces. In March, the Council is expected to adopt the UN Political Office, Zerihoun empha- Additionally, Adan asked that a reference to a resolution renewing the authorisation of sised that it was based on extensive consul- the UN human rights due-diligence policy, the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) tations with major stakeholders and was the which says the policy applies to AMISOM and endorsing one of the Secretary-Gen- best option under current circumstances. (In and “allied forces”, be removed from the Sec- eral’s options for the reconfiguration of the his report, the Secretary-General also pre- retary-General’s report. (The policy guides UN presence. AMISOM’s current Council sented three other options: a joint AU-UN UN support for non-UN armed actors.) authorisation ends on 7 March, while its AU mission, a fully integrated UN peacebuild- Adan expressed her government’s strong mandate expires on 14 July. ing mission and a UN peacebuilding mis- preference for an integrated UN presence Also in March, the chair of the 751/1907 sion with a separate UN Support Office and asserted that the benefits of integra- Somalia and Eritrea Sanctions Committee, for AMISOM [UNSOA].) Zerihoun noted, tion would far outweigh the concerns raised Ambassador Kim Sook (Republic of Korea), however, that the objective should be to move by humanitarian actors about the possible is due to present his 120-day report to the towards an integrated mission as soon as impact on their perceived neutrality. She Council on the work of the Committee. security conditions allowed. Pending further concluded by extending an invitation to the guidance from the Council, the Secretary- Council to visit Mogadishu in the near future. Key Recent Developments General intends to deploy a technical assess- On 9 February, AMISOM announced On 14 February, the Council was briefed ment mission to Somalia and would report the results of the investigation of the 15 by Assistant Secretary-General for Political back to the Council in May. January incident in which seven civilians, Affairs Tayé Brook Zerihoun on the Secre- Somali Deputy Prime Minister and For- including five children, were killed dur- tary-General’s 31 January report on Soma- eign Minister Fauzia Yusuf Haji Adan also ing military operations near the southern lia (S/2013/69). In his briefing, Zerihoun spoke, stressing that Somalia now had a town of Leggo. The investigation found that presented the Secretary-General’s recom- well-functioning government and that politi- AMISOM troops were not to blame but had mendations for the future UN presence cal infighting was a thing of the past. The acted within internationally accepted rules and provided an update on recent politi- government had taken several initiatives to of engagement when they responded to an cal developments, the security situation implement its six-pillar policy framework Al-Shabaab ambush. and human rights issues. On the political (stabilisation through the rule of law and On 5 February, a Somali journalist who front, he emphasised that the liberation of good governance; economic recovery; peace- had been arrested on 10 January and a new areas had created an opportunity for building and reconciliation; public service woman he had interviewed were sentenced the government to expand its control but delivery; improved international relations; to one year in prison by a local court. The noted recent tensions over the establish- and national unity). woman had alleged that while living in a ment of local administrations in Kismayo Adan presented several specific requests to camp for internally displaced persons she and Baidoa as examples of some of the chal- the Council. Underlining that a top priority had been raped by armed men in govern- lenges involved. for the government was to defeat the Islamist ment uniforms. Although the journal- Zerihoun also addressed Somalia’s request rebel group Al-Shabaab and improve secu- ist never published the interview, he was for lifting the arms embargo, emphasising the rity, she said a lifting of the arms embargo charged with offending the honour of a importance of a calibrated approach to avoid was a prerequisite to achieve this goal. The state institution and with filing a false report. “the proliferation of uncontrolled weapons”. government would put in place the necessary The sentencing was widely condemned. UN He said the Monitoring Group assisting mechanisms to prevent weapons from ending High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi the Sanctions Committee was ready to pro- up in the wrong hands. She also reaffirmed Pillay called on the government to re-open vide technical advice for the development her government’s support for the Council’s the case and launch a full inquiry into what of options in this regard. As for the human ban on import and export of Somali charcoal had happened. She expressed concern about rights situation, Zerihoun expressed particu- and asked that violators be punished. the freedom of expression in Somalia and lar concern about the prevalence of sexual Furthermore, she voiced her govern- also about the impact of the verdict on the violence and ongoing threats against journal- ment’s strong opposition to a maritime com- fight against impunity in sexual violence ists and called on the government to develop ponent for AMISOM, noting that the recom- cases, citing recent reports of an increase in a framework to ensure the implementation mendation for such a component had been such violence. of its international human rights obligations. removed from the final report to the AU Somali government forces supported by Presenting the Secretary-General’s rec- on the strategic review of the mission, and AMISOM continued to expand their control ommendation for the establishment of a new emphasised that the priority must instead be (on 14 February, they captured three strategic

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2073 (7 November 2012) renewed AMISOM’s authorisation until 7 March. S/RES/2060 (25 July 2012) extended the mandate of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea for 13 months as well as the humanitarian exemption to the Somalia sanctions regime for 12 months. S/RES/2036 (22 February 2012) renewed AMISOM’s authorisation and imposed a ban on importing and exporting Somali charcoal. Secretary General’s Report S/2013/69 (31 January 2013) was the latest regular report on Somalia. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6921 (14 February 2013) was the latest Council meeting on Somalia. S/PV.6854 (7 November 2012) was the adoption of resolution 2073 with explanations of vote. Security Council Letters S/2013/93 (13 February 2013) was from Iran concerning the reports of arms transfers to Al-Shabaab. S/2013/56 (25 January 2013) contained the most recent 60-day AU report on AMISOM, requested by resolution 2036. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Augustine Mahiga (Tanzania) Size and Composition of AMISOM Current strength as of 25 January: 17,709 total uniformed personnel. Main troop contributors are Burundi (4,432 troops), Kenya (4,652 troops), Uganda (6,223 troops) and Djibouti (960 troops). Special Representative of the AU and Head of AMISOM Mahamat Salah Annadif (Chad) USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCE AMISOM in transition: The future of the African Union Mission in Somalia, Rift Valley Institute Briefing Paper, 13 February 2013.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Somalia (con’t) towns from Al-Shabaab located southwest of as implementation of the UN’s human rights among Council members, but most favour Mogadishu), but February also saw a new due-diligence policy and protection of civil- either option B (a fully integrated peace- series of terrorist attacks. In one such attack, ians. (The Council’s informal expert group building mission) or option C (the assistance on 16 February, a car bomb exploded outside on protection of civilians met on 20 Febru- mission recommended by the Secretary- a popular restaurant in Mogadishu, killing at ary in preparation for the AMISOM renewal General), with the Council split between the least two people and injuring seven others. and was briefed by the Office for the Coor- two. Dynamics seem to be driven both by the On 15 February, the Monitoring Group dination of Humanitarian Affairs on key pro- Somali government’s support for option B presented its mid-term briefing to the Sanc- tection issues to consider for the upcoming as well as concerns raised by the humanitar- tions Committee. It confirmed, reportedly for resolution.) ian community about the risks of structur- the first time, that there was a link between Another issue is whether to review the ally integrating the UN country team. Those Al-Shabaab and piracy activities. The group arms embargo as called for by the govern- who support option C seem to agree that also confirmed the Islamists’ expansion into ment to facilitate the delivery of arms and integration should be the end goal and also other areas and its infiltration of the Somali other military equipment to the Somali acknowledge that the views of the govern- security sector. Furthermore, it reported that National Security Forces. ment deserve serious consideration. Yet they the charcoal ban had not been effective and A further issue is whether additional steps share the Secretary-General’s assessment that Al-Shabaab was still benefitting from are needed to strengthen implementation that conditions are not yet right for a fully and controlling the trade. of the ban on export and import of Somali integrated mission. In a 13 February letter to the Council, charcoal. A further complicating element is the fact Iran complained about media reports that the that there are also different views on whether Monitoring Group had presented allegations Options UNSOA should be integrated into a new of illegal arms transfers from Iran to Al-Sha- The most likely option for the Council is UN structure. In particular, it seems the US, baab. It said the allegations were baseless and to adopt a resolution that would renew the while favouring the creation of an integrated also regretted that they had been leaked to authorisation for AMISOM and endorse one peacebuilding mission, is keen on keeping the media “for propaganda purposes” while of the Secretary-General’s options for the UNSOA as a separate entity. asking the Sanctions Committee to “remedy future UN presence. Other options include: There also seem to be some differences the situation by making the necessary correc- • addressing some or all requests and rec- over how the Council should respond to tive measures”. ommendations resulting from the AU’s Somalia’s request for a lifting of the arms strategic review; embargo. While the US has publicly sup- Key Issues • asking the Monitoring Group for advice ported at least a partial lifting of the embargo, A key issue for the Council in March is which on the calibrated lifting of the arms other Council members, including European of the Secretary-General’s options for the embargo on the government or granting and Latin American members, seem much future UN presence in Somalia to endorse. a partial lift; more hesitant about any easing of the arms A related issue is how to strengthen human • considering additional measures to ensure embargo at this stage, citing concerns about rights monitoring. effective implementation of the charcoal command and control of the Somali forces Another key issue is the re-authorisation ban; and and also pointing out that Somalia is already of AMISOM. This includes the question of • sending a visiting mission to Mogadishu, overflowing with weapons. They seem willing how to respond to the requests that the AU possibly with the participation of just to consider some revisions to the embargo, is expected to submit to the Council based some Council members, in response to however, as a gesture towards the Somali on the strategic review. Sustainable funding the invitation by the government. government. is likely to be one of them. The UK is the lead country on Somalia Related issues include how to ensure Council and Wider Dynamics in the Council, while the Republic of Korea coordination and coherence in approach by With regard to the reconfiguration of the UN chairs the Sanctions Committee. AMISOM and the new UN mission, as well presence, there seems to be a range of views

Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action Sudan, in accordance with resolution 2046. is in large part meant to express concern In March, the Council is scheduled to hold At press time, the Council had been nego- about the lack of implementation of the 27 two meetings, likely in consultations, to dis- tiating a draft presidential statement since September 2012 agreements on security, oil cuss relations between Sudan and South mid-February. (It seems that the statement wealth-sharing, nationalities and other issues

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on Sudan-South Sudan relations. Security Council Press Statement SC/10779 (28 September 2012) welcomed the 27 September agreements. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/877 (26 November 2012) was a report on Sudan-South Sudan relations. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6917 (12 February 2013) was the recent Council debate on Protection of Civilians.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t) and underscores the importance of compli- perspectives on how to resolve the pending Key Issues ance with resolution 2046.) However, it was issues separating Sudan and South Sudan. The underlying issue is how Council mem- unclear if and when Council members would Conflict continued in South Kordofan bers can overcome their differences and be able to achieve consensus on the draft and Blue Nile states in southern Sudan. The coalesce around a common strategy that has statement. Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North an impact on the calculations of the parties. (SPLM-N) claimed on 9 February that the A related issue is the lack of progress made Key Recent Developments Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-Dem- by Sudan and South Sudan in implementing On 7 February, the Council held consulta- ocratic Change (SPLM-DC), a South Suda- the 27 September agreements and negotiat- tions on Sudan and South Sudan. Haile nese rebel group that is supported by Khar- ing the final status of Abyei. Menkerios, the Secretary-General’s Special toum, crossed the border from South Sudan Another related issue is how to facilitate a Envoy on Sudan and South Sudan, briefed into South Kordofan state and killed 17 civil- ceasefire and peace talks between the SPLM- Council members in consultations on rela- ians in Abujibeiha county. Lam Akol, the head N and Sudan and how to address the severe tions between the two countries, while of the SPLM-DC, denied the accusation. humanitarian crisis in South Kordofan and Edmond Mulet, Assistant Secretary-Gen- From 14-17 February, heavy fighting Blue Nile. eral for Peacekeeping Operations, briefed occurred in the Muffa area of Blue Nile, on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei with the SPLM-N alleging that the Sudanese Options (UNISFA). Menkerios reported that Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) had targeted civilians There are several options for the Council to and South Sudan had yet to agree on the through air and ground operations. Sudan help break the current stalemate and encour- scope of the Mile 14 area along the Dar- claimed that 66 SPLM-N troops were killed age direct talks between the parties involved fur (Sudan) and in the fighting, while the SPLM-N alleged in hostilities in Sudan and South Sudan: (South Sudan) border. (This has prevented that it had killed 86 SAF troops. The SPLM- • using the ad-hoc Working Group on Con- the parties from establishing the Safe N has also claimed that the fighting displaced flict Prevention and Resolution in Africa Demilitarised Border Zone, orSDBZ along 8,000 civilians. as a forum to develop strategies to address their mutual border, as they have agreed to An Antonov plane operated by the SAF the crisis between Sudan and South include the Mile 14 area within the SDBZ.) reportedly dropped eight bombs in Luwere, Sudan (meetings of the Working Group Menkerios also noted that Sudan has reit- South Kordofan, on 17 February with one to discuss Sudan and South Sudan could erated its insistence that security arrange- of the bombs apparently killing three peo- also include representatives of both coun- ments be implemented prior to other ple—two children and a woman—who were tries, as well as other representatives from agreements. Mulet reported that UNISFA gathering food in a field. Four other civilians other countries in the region); has helped to maintain calm between the were also wounded in the attack. • holding an “informal interactive dialogue” Misseriya and Ngok-Dinka communities The SPLM-N stated on 20 February that with representatives of all parties to the in Abyei during the Misseriya migration it was fighting with SAF in Kurmuk, a Blue conflict—including Sudan, South Sudan through the area. Nile town that is 12 miles from Muffa, and and the SPLM-N—to get their perspec- Majak D’Agoot, the Deputy Defence that it had taken control of the town’s airport. tives on the issues dividing them (the Minister of South Sudan, alleged on 12 Feb- Sudan denied the claim that the SPLM-N “informal interactive dialogue” is a closed ruary that Sudan had amassed troops near had fought its way to Kurmuk. meeting that could allow a party or par- disputed areas of the border, and South The Council again held consultations on ties to a dispute to meet with Council Sudan television reported that President Sudan and South Sudan on 21 February, members outside the Council’s formal Salva Kiir had ordered the movement of mil- with Menkerios briefing. Menkerios said that chambers); itary and police to border regions in response. rhetoric between Sudan and South Sudan • travelling to the region to meet with offi- Sudan has denied the allegation. had escalated in recent days and indicated cials from both countries to impress upon Negotiations between Sudan and South that there was a need for the parties to dem- them the importance of honouring prior Sudan appear to have stalled in recent weeks. onstrate the political will necessary to make agreements; Press reports indicate that the parties were progress in their relations. He said that the • acting on its threat to impose measures scheduled to reconvene in Addis Ababa on SPLM-N had expressed a willingness to par- under article 41 (i.e. sanctions) on one 13 February to discuss security and political ticipate in negotiations with Sudan scheduled or more of the parties for not abiding by matters. However, these talks were cancelled. for 5 March but that Sudan had not indi- resolution 2046; or In mid-February, a delegation from the Inter- cated whether it would engage in the talks. • mandating the Secretary-General to Governmental Authority on Development launch a commission of inquiry to inves- (IGAD) led by Lazarus Sambeiyo—a former Human Rights-Related Developments tigate reports of human rights violations Kenyan military officer who served as an During the 12 February open debate on the pro- in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states. IGAD mediator in the lead-up to the 2005 tection of civilians, UN High Commissioner for Comprehensive Peace Agreement—travelled Human Rights Navi Pillay urged the Council to Council Dynamics provide for a stronger human rights-monitoring to Juba to meet with South Sudanese politi- capacity in UNISFA. There is a palpable sense of frustration cians and civil society actors to hear their among several Council members about the

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t) lack of progress by the parties in implement- relations, as well as the humanitarian situa- South Sudan and for denying humanitarian ing the 27 September agreements and in tion in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, access to South Kordofan and Blue Nile resolving other pending issues. Some mem- have also had a negative impact on the Coun- states. Others are more inclined to take what bers are likewise extremely concerned about cil’s effectiveness on these issues. The nego- they perceive as a more balanced approach the poor state of relations between Sudan tiations on the draft presidential statement that is less critical of Sudan. and South Sudan. have reflected the differences of view among The US is the lead country on Sudan- Divisions in the Council on how to some Council members. Some members are South Sudan issues. address the crisis in Sudan-South Sudan highly critical of Sudan for its difficulties with

South Sudan

Expected Council Action efforts to facilitate inter-communal dialogue as deputies to the General Staff Chief James In March, the Council expects to hold a and to conduct disarmament in a responsible Hoth Mai and three generals as sector com- briefing and consultations on the Secretary- manner. manders for Wau, Malakal and , while General’s most recent report on the situa- On 21 December 2012, South Sudan shot promoting nine other generals. On 14 Feb- tion in South Sudan and the UN Mission down an UNMISS helicopter on a reconnais- ruary, Kiir dismissed more than 100 addi- in South Sudan (UNMISS). No outcome is sance mission in , resulting in the tional high-ranking officials, including the expected at press time. deaths of four UNMISS crewmembers from governors of Unity (), The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 the Russian Federation. Later that day, the (Louis Lobong Lojore), July 2013. Council issued a press statement in which (Rizik Hassan it strongly deplored the downing of the heli- Zachariah) and (Simon Kun Key Recent Developments copter, expressed condolences to the families Puoc) states. On 28 November 2012, Hervé Ladsous, of the victims and strongly urged a thorough Also on 21 January, Justice Minister John Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeep- and swift investigation (SC/10873). (South Luk Jok presented a bill to the Legislative ing Operations, briefed the Council on the Sudan has initiated an investigation and Rus- Assembly seeking to extend by nine months Secretary-General’s 8 November report on sia is conducting an analysis of the flight data the National Constitutional Review Com- South Sudan (S/2012/820). Ladsous said recorder, or “black box”. South Sudan has mission (NCRC). (In January 2012, Kiir that the lack of progress in implementing claimed that it shot at the helicopter because appointed the NCRC to consult through- the 27 September agreements on security, it mistook it for a Sudanese aircraft supplying out South Sudan and prepare a new draft oil transport and revenue, cross-border rebels in the area.) constitution by January 2013. The bill was trade and other issues could negatively affect On 21 January, President Salva Kiir proposed because the NCRC was unable to South Sudan’s economic stability, especially issued a decree dismissing Chol Tong Maya, meet the deadline.) if oil exports were delayed. (There has been the elected governor of Lakes state, for his On 15 February, the Legislative Assem- slow progress in implementing the security alleged inability to effectively combat recent bly’s Judicial and Constitutional Committee agreements, and Sudan has been unwilling inter-clan violence. While some have ques- held a public hearing in which it discussed to export oil from South Sudan until security tioned the legality of the decision, parlia- potentially reducing the size of NCRC arrangements are finalised.) Ladsous also ment determined that the decision was (which currently has 55 members), the need expressed concerns about the human rights constitutional on 28 January. (One parlia- to ensure that sufficient funds are provided situation, inter-communal violence and the mentarian, Ayen Maguat, pointed to article for its work, and the length of its mandate. At delays in the constitutional review process in 101(r) of the transitional constitution, which press time, the Legislative Assembly was still South Sudan. states that the president can dismiss a state considering the bill on the NCRC. Ambassador Francis M. Deng (South governor “in the event of a crisis in the state More than 100 people were killed in a cat- Sudan) addressed the Council after Lad- that threatens national security and territo- tle raid on 8 February in Jonglei state when sous, stating that a comprehensive and sus- rial integrity”.) members of the Murle ethnic group attacked tainable peace with Sudan is South Sudan’s Kiir made key changes within the mili- members of the Lou-Nuer ethnic group, who “number one priority”. He also emphasised tary in January and February. On 21 Janu- were approaching the Sobat River in the midst South Sudan’s concern with the situation in ary, he dismissed 35 generals and placed of their annual migration. Fourteen soldiers, Jonglei state, alluding to his government’s them on reserve. He appointed six generals who were trying to protect the Lou-Nuer,

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2057 (5 July 2012) renewed UNMISS until 15 July 2013. S/RES/1996 (8 July 2011) established UNMISS. Security Council Press Statement SC/10873 (21 December 2012) deplored the shooting down of an UNMISS helicopter by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6874 (28 November 2012) was the Council’s most recent briefing on UNMISS. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/820 (8 November 2012) was the most recent Secretary-General’s report on UNMISS. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Hilde Johnson (Norway) UNMISS Force Commander Major General Delali Johnson Sakyi (Ghana) Maximum Authorised Strength Up to 7,000 military personnel Up to 900 civilian police personnel Strength (as of 31 December 2012) 7,157 total uniformed personnel (including 6,473 troops, 140 military liaison officers and 544 police) 831 international civilian personnel and 1,375 local civilian staff (as of 31 October 2012) Mission also includes 391 UN volunteers.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 15 South Sudan (con’t)

Commissioner for Human Rights, said that the were among those killed. Dozens of children expulsion in November 2012 of an UNMISS especially challenges facing refugees in were abducted as well during the assault. Goi human rights officer had set “a dangerous prec- Unity and Upper Nile states; and Joyal—who serves as the commissioner in edent” and once again urged South Sudan to • holding an Arria formula meeting focus- Akobo County, where the attack occurred— reconsider its decision (S/PV.6917). (Pillay had ing on the sources of inter-communal vio- alleged that the perpetrators were affiliated called on South Sudan to reverse the expulsion lence in South Sudan with the participa- order on 9 November 2012.) In late January, two with Murle rebel leader David Yau Yau. UNMISS human rights staff were detained and tion of experts capable of providing the On 5 December 2012, Diing Chan Awol, interrogated for several hours regarding inquiries Council with informed analysis of the vio- a journalist who wrote under the name Isa- involving a journalist. Johnson on 10 February lence and suggesting potential strategies iah Abraham and who had frequently criti- said that such acts are grave violations “of the for addressing this violence. cised the government, was shot and killed agreements the government has signed and The Council may also wish to adopt a the privileges and immunities of United Nations outside his home in Juba by unidentified personnel”. statement that, inter-alia: assailants. On 10 February, Hilde Johnson, • expresses concern with the ongo- the Special Representative of the Secre- ing incidents of inter-communal vio- tary-General for South Sudan and head of Key Issues lence and highlights the importance of UNMISS, declared that South Sudan would One key issue is how to facilitate implemen- reconciliation; become the first country to adopt the UN tation of the 27 September agreements, as • encourages efforts to investigate the 21 Plan of Action on the Safety of Journalists efforts to promote internal development December downing of an UNMISS heli- and the Issue of Impunity. (According to and economic stability in South Sudan are copter, while underscoring the impor- UNESCO, the plan is designed to develop severely curtailed without oil revenue or tance of developing and implementing mechanisms and strategies to create “a free cross-border trade. rules and procedures to prevent similar and safe environment for journalists and Also an important issue is whether and incidents in the future; and media workers in both conflict and non- how Kiir’s dismissal of high-ranking officials • underscores the need for progress in conflict situations”.) will affect the effectiveness and stability of the constitutional review process, while Johnson held a press conference in Juba the government. emphasising that it be conducted in an on 15 February on the situation in South Another key issue is how the Council inclusive manner throughout the country. Sudan. She said that nation-building efforts can encourage progress in the constitutional had been limited because South Sudan had review process, which has experienced delays Council Dynamics been focused on its relations with Sudan. in the past year. The Council has been focused largely on Johnson recognised progress made by South An additional key issue is how to Sudan-South Sudan relations in recent Sudan, such as the passage of key electoral strengthen efforts to prevent inter-commu- months. Deliberations on South Sudan in legislation and the creation of a programme nal violence and promote inter-communal March will, for the first time since Novem- for disarmament, demobilisation and reinte- reconciliation in Jonglei state and elsewhere ber 2012, provide Council members with an gration. However, she added that UNMISS in South Sudan. A related issue is the need opportunity to engage substantively with the was disturbed by reports of threats, intimida- to address violence committed by Yau Yau’s domestic situation in South Sudan and the tion, harassment and attacks against journal- rebel group. activities of UNMISS. It will likewise mark ists, civil society and human rights activists. Also a key issue is how to ensure that pro- the first time that the new Council members Refugees continue to arrive in Unity and tocols and procedures are developed and have discussed an UNMISS report. Upper Nile states, fleeing the fighting and implemented so that incidents such as the There has been widespread concern in hunger in Sudan’s South Kordofan and shooting down of the UNMISS helicopter in the Council for several months about inter- Blue Nile states. On 15 February, OCHA Jonglei are not repeated. communal violence, especially in Jonglei state, reported that there are nearly 113,000 refu- and the difficult humanitarian situation in gees in Upper Nile and over 67,000 refu- Options South Sudan, exacerbated by the austerity gees in Unity. On 15 February, UNHCR Options for the Council include: measures the government put in place after reported that 111 refugees had died from • listening to the briefing but taking no shutting down its oil production in early Hepatitis E, and 6,017 had been infected action at the current time; 2012. Some members also appear to be par- since July 2012. • inviting the UN High Commissioner for ticularly troubled by the human rights situa- Refugees and the Under-Secretary-Gen- tion in South Sudan. Human Rights-Related Developments eral for Humanitarian Affairs to brief the The US is the lead country on South During the 12 February open debate on the Council on the humanitarian situation, Sudan. protection of civilians, Navi Pillay, the UN High

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Libya

Expected Council Action officials continue to be the targets of attacks, intelligence chief and ICC indictee Abdul- In March, the Council is expected to renew mainly in the east. Furthermore, there have lah al-Senussi. Another ICC indictee like- the mandate of the UN Support Mission been reports of armed clashes between tribes wise held in Libya, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, in Libya (UNSMIL). Tarek Mitri, the Spe- and clans and the army, mainly in the south. appeared before a local court in January tried cial Representative of the Secretary-General The security sector reform continues to on charges of undermining state security and and head of UNSMIL, is expected to pres- present serious challenges. Currently, there attempting to escape from prison. At press ent the Secretary-General’s latest report on are about 7,000 conflict-related detainees in time, he had not been tried yet for charges UNSMIL and brief the Council on the latest the custody of militias that refuse to transfer related to the crimes allegedly committed developments on the ground. Libyan Prime them to state-controlled correctional facilities. during the Libyan uprising. Minister Ali Zeidan is also likely to address Despite improvements in the security forces, In February, the GNC discussed the the Council. such as conversion of more than 20,000 for- drafting of a “political isolation” law, which The Council will also likely renew the mer militia troops into security officers, due- calls for the exclusion of those linked to the mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) assist- process guarantees and basic rights of these former regime from the current government. ing the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. At detainees continue to be violated. Human rights organisations in Libya and press time, the Council will have received On 12 February, an international ministe- abroad have criticised the law for penalising the Panel’s final report and is expecting the rial conference on support to Libya was held affiliation instead of misdeeds and for ham- periodic briefing by the chair of the Com- in Paris, focusing on cooperation in the areas pering the reconciliation process. mittee, Ambassador Eugene-Richard Gasana of security, justice and rule of law. The con- The Secretary-General’s most recent (Rwanda). ference included regional and international report highlights UNSMIL’s engagement The mandates of both UNSMIL and the organisations, EU and Arab League members, with the government in addressing “the com- Panel expire on 16 March. the US and Turkey. In a communiqué, the plexities of the post-conflict democratic tran- participants pledged their political, technical sition” (S/2013/104). The report identified Key Recent Developments and material support for the government’s the absence of an accountable institutional As highlighted by Mitri during his last Coun- work on such issues as the national security framework (including in the security and cil briefing on 29 January, there have been architecture; disarmament, demobilisation defence sectors), the underdevelopment of a number of developments on the political and reintegration; arms and border control; the private sector (which provides few oppor- front in Libya, including, after two frustrated and defence and security sector reform. The tunities for demobilised combatants) and the attempts, the swearing-in of the first demo- conference adopted development plans for presence of tribal and regional tensions as the cratically elected government. national security and the justice and rule of main challenges Libya is facing. The report On 6 February, the General National law, to be implemented by the government suggested refocusing UNSMIL’s work on Congress (GNC) decided, after a consider- with the assistance of international partners. providing support to the constitution-mak- able delay, to endorse election as the process One of the main challenges regarding ing process, inclusive national dialogue and by which the members of the Constituent the security situation in Libya is the porous improving institutional capacity in the areas Assembly will be chosen. The Assembly will nature of the borders. On 12 January, Zeidan of defence sector reform, transitional justice have 60 members, with 20 members repre- met with the prime ministers of Algeria and and rule of law. senting each of the three historical regions Tunisia in the town of Ghadames and agreed of Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan, and on joint measures to combat organised crime, Key Issues they will be chosen through direct election terrorism and smuggling across borders. An overarching issue is the fragile security as stated in the Draft Constitutional Decla- Although steps have been taken to enhance situation and the impact of regional instabil- ration. Due to the characteristics of the elec- border control, recent developments in Mali ity on Libya due to the deficient control of toral process, this decision will further delay and terrorist attacks in Algeria show the need its porous borders. (There has been some the constitutional drafting process but will for better border-control mechanisms. For progress in security sector reform and the ensure its regional inclusiveness. Mitri char- the second anniversary of the beginning of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegra- acterised the GNC’s decision as an “impor- Libyan uprising in February, the borders with tion of former combatants, but much more tant milestone”. and Tunisia were closed for five days remains to be done.) The security situation continues to be amid fears of new violent clashes. Issues for the Council vis-à-vis the precarious. On 3 January, the president of Relations between Libya and the Interna- UNSMIL mandate renewal may be to signal the GNC, Mohamed el-Magariaf, survived tional Criminal Court (ICC) have become the importance of the Libyan government an assassination attempt, as did the Italian increasingly tense after the Court ordered managing key challenges such as: consul in Benghazi on 12 January. Security Libya on 7 February to surrender former • ensuring the inclusiveness of the

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2040 (12 March 2012) extended the mandate of UNSMIL and the Panel of Experts assisting the Sanctions Committee by 12 months. S/RES/1973 (17 March 2011) authorised all necessary measures to protect civilians in Libya and enforce the arms embargo, imposed a no-fly zone, strength- ened the sanctions regime and established a Panel of Experts. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC and established a Sanctions Committee for the arms embargo, travel ban and assets freeze imposed by the resolution. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/104 (21 February 2013) was the latest report of the Secretary-General on UNSMIL. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6912 (29 January 2013) was the latest briefing by Special Representative Tarek Mitri. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL Tarek Mitri (Lebanon) UNSMIL Size and Composition Strength as of January 2013: 137 international civilians; 23 local civilians; two police officers.UNSMIL Duration 16 September 2011 to present

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Libya (con’t)

constitutional process; Council may include: after the decision of the GNC to hold elec- • establishing an institutional framework for • incorporating some of the suggestions tions for the assembly. the reconciliation process; and raised by the Secretary-General in his Arms proliferation in Libya and the region • managing the expectations of the popula- report; and has been a source of contention among tion who seem to be growing impatient • incorporating some of the recommenda- Council members since the end of the revolu- with the slow path towards democracy tions in the report of the Panel of Experts tion, and that might come up again in closed and reform. to ensure the effectiveness of the sanc- consultations. A related issue for the Council are the tions, namely the ones regarding the arms Regarding the ICC referral, some Coun- current conflicting views between Libya and embargo and the travel ban. cil members would prefer the ICC indict- the ICC regarding the trial of the two ICC ees to be tried in The Hague, whereas other indictees (the Council referred the situation Council Dynamics members tend to be more sympathetic with in Libya to the ICC in resolution 1970 of 26 Council members generally agree that the Libya’s desire to hold the trials in the country February 2011). principal elements of UNSMIL’s mandate as exercising its right to prosecute any crimes outlined in resolution 2040 remain relevant. over which it has jurisdiction. Options They are also aware of the important role The UK is the lead country on Libya. In the resolution extending UNSMIL and UNSMIL can play now that the constitu- the mandate of the Panel, options for the tional drafting process has been unblocked

Mali

Expected Council Action roadmap established the three main priorities AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, In March, the Council is expected to be for the authorities in the transition process: Ramtane Lamamra; Feltman; and the Presi- briefed in consultations by Under-Secretary- the restoration of the territorial integrity of dent of ECOWAS, Kadré Désiré Ouedraogo. General of Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman, Mali; the establishment of a dialogue with The AU High Representative for Mali and and will discuss the upcoming report of the groups that respect this territorial integrity the Sahel, Pierre Buyoya, and three minis- Secretary-General on the implementation of and reject armed struggle; and the holding of ters representing the interim government in resolution 2085 of 20 December 2012. free and fair elections. On 14 February, the Mali, also attended the meeting. The group’s The report will likely focus on UN sup- interim government announced that presi- conclusions commended France, Mali and port for the political and security efforts dential elections would be held on 7 July and AFISMA for the “remarkable progress made to address the crisis in Mali as well as the legislative elections on 21 July, along with a on the ground” and welcomed positive devel- deployment and activities of the African- presidential run-off if required. opments, such as the adoption of the road- led International Support Mission in Mali French President François Hollande vis- map for a political transition, the decision of (AFISMA). It is also likely to include recom- ited Mali and met with interim President the government to establish a dialogue and mendations of a technical assessment mission Dioncounda Traoré on 2 February. In Tim- reconciliation commission and the deploy- to Mali scheduled for mid-March. buktu, which was liberated on 27 January, ment of an EU training mission to build the The Council is expected to start discuss- Hollande declared that military efforts under capacity of the Malian Defence and Secu- ing a possible transition from AFISMA to a Opération Serval were ongoing, as there were rity Forces (MDSF). Also, the conclusions of full-fledged peacekeeping operation in March still areas in the north controlled by terrorist the group pointed to some of the challenges and a new resolution establishing such an groups, but that the objective was to pass the Mali is facing, such as the existence of ter- operation is possible in the coming months. baton to AFISMA when the situation on the rorism and other criminal networks, the dire AFISMA’s authorisation expires on 20 ground allows it. humanitarian situation, weak border-control December. On 5 February in Brussels, the Support mechanisms, reported acts of retaliation and and Follow-up Group on the Situation in other abuses in the recovered areas, as well Key Recent Developments Mali held its third meeting. The meeting was as underlying problems such as governance On 29 January, the National Assembly unani- hosted by the EU High Representative for deficit and poverty. mously approved the roadmap for a transition Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Cath- Assistant Secretary-General for Politi- presented by the interim government. This erine Ashton, and was co-chaired by the cal Affairs Tayé-Brook Zerihoun briefed

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2085 (20 December 2012) authorised the deployment of AFISMA for one year. S/RES/2056 (5 July 2012) expressed support for the joint efforts of the AU, ECOWAS and the transitional authorities in Mali trying to re-establish constitutionality and territorial integrity. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/9 (4 April 2012) strongly condemned assaults by rebels in northern Mali and the seizure of power in the capital by elements of the armed forces. Security Council Press Statement SC/10878 (10 January 2013) expressed grave concern over the attacks by terrorist and extremist groups in northern Mali, in particular their capture of the city of Konna. Security Council Letters S/2013/113 (25 February 2013) was a letter from the interim president of Mali requesting the rapid deployment of AFISMA. S/2013/37 (20 January 2013) contained the Secretary-General’s funding and logistical support options for AFISMA. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/894 (29 November 2012) contained the Secretary-General’s recommendations for an international force in Mali. OTHER A/HRC/22/33 (7 January 2013) was the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on the situation in Mali.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Mali (con’t)

Council members on 6 February in con- on 26 February. It requested rapid deploy- AFISMA and its troop-contributing coun- sultations on political developments on the ment of AFISMA to restore state authority tries at the 29 January Addis Ababa donor ground and the progress in setting up a UN and sovereignty prior to AFISMA’s possible conference. office in Bamako. This “multidimensional transformation into a UN stabilisation and Emerging issues for the Council as it UN presence” (which an advance UN team peacekeeping operation. It also said that a begins its discussions on a UN peacekeeping began to set up after it arrived in Mali on 19 high-level delegation from Mali will be travel- mission may be: January) will support the ongoing political ling to New York for meetings with the Secre- • considering a role for the mission to process and assist in the planning, deploy- tary-General and Security Council members. address both the divisions within the gov- ment and operations of AFISMA. France At press time, Council members were ernment and the MDSF in parallel with provided an update on Opération Serval and expecting a briefing by Feltman on 27 Feb- the need to facilitate a wider negotiation there were some initial discussions about ruary in consultations. France was also process with minority groups; and the idea of a future UN peacekeeping expected to provide an update on the secu- • addressing the difficulty of providing suf- mission in Mali. Some Council members rity situation in the north and Council mem- ficient capacity in a timely manner to raised the need to put in place human rights bers were likely to hold initial discussions support elections currently anticipated observers, given the increasing allegations about the establishment of a peacekeeping for July. of violations of human rights in the country. operation. Addressing the potentially destabilising (As a result of these requests the Secretariat spillover effects from Mali to an already frag- boosted the human rights capacity of the Human Rights-Related Developments ile regional will be an ongoing issue. UN presence in Bamako with the deploy- On 1 February, Adama Dieng, the Secretary- ment of a mobile team.) General’s Special Adviser on the prevention of Options On 8 February, an advance team of 70 genocide, warned of the risk of reprisal attacks If the Council is to adopt a new peacekeeping against ethnic Tuareg and Arab civilians. He men- EU military instructors arrived in Mali. This tioned instances of allegations of serious human resolution in the coming months it will need mission, which will ultimately comprise 500 rights violations committed by the Malian army to continue to take into account recent devel- personnel, is meant to build the capacity of against these communities. On 15 February, a opments in order to respond to the quickly the MDSF in military training, human rights spokesperson for the High Commissioner for changing situation on the ground. issues and protection of civilians. Human Rights said that three human rights Immediate options for the Council experts were already in Bamako to support the In spite of the important military gains human rights activities undertaken by the UN include: in Mali, the security situation still presents Office in Mali. She added that a four-person • asking the Secretary-General to provide serious challenges. Almost 250,000 internally team will be deployed to Mali on 17 February for in his upcoming report on Mali options displaced persons and more than 165,000 a two-week fact-finding mission to investigate regarding the transition from AFISMA to refugees have fled to neighbouring countries. allegations of human rights abuses, including a UN peacekeeping operation; allegations of retaliatory violence. The findings The terrorist threat continues in northern of this mission and of the first mission deployed • adding some of the terrorist groups and Mali, where there were reports of several sui- last November will be presented by the High individuals operating in Mali to the list of cide attacks in February. Furthermore, there Commissioner to the Human Rights Council the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Com- have been reports of violent clashes among (HRC) at its 22nd session. During this session, mittee; and different units of the army, mainly between the HRC will also consider the January report of • reiterating its call to the Secretary-General the High Commissioner on the situation of human the Presidential Guard loyal to former Presi- and his Special Envoy to finalise as soon as rights in the north of Mali. dent Amadou Toumani Touré (red beret) and possible the UN integrated strategy for the those loyal to the current unelected govern- Sahel region, encompassing governance, ment (green beret). Key Issues security, humanitarian, human rights and On 20 February, a meeting involving A key overarching issue is to stabilise the developmental issues, as requested by res- Malian officials as well as senior officials security situation in the north in order to olution 2056 of 5 July 2012. of the AU and ECOWAS, the EU military minimise the threats to a future peacekeep- Future options for the Council include: advisers in Mali, and UN military and civil- ing operation. • establishing a full-fledged peacekeeping ian planners, concluded the revision of the A related issue for the Council—in case operation in the north of Mali aimed at harmonised joint concept of operations for a counterinsurgency effort is still required— ensuring the stability and security of the AFISMA. The objective of this discussion was will be to define if such operations will fall recovered areas in the north (AFISMA integrating a more robust military component under the mandate of any future UN peace- forces, as well as a reduced French pres- with substantial police and civilian compo- keeping mission. ence, could be re-hatted and remain in the nents. (The latter will include political affairs, Ensuring AFISMA has the basic financial country under a UN chain of command); human rights, humanitarian affairs, gender and logistical support to fulfill its mandate • assigning the French forces to conduct advisers and public information units.) in any transition towards a UN peacekeep- counterterrorism operations, under a A letter from Traoré, dated 12 Febru- ing operation is another key issue. A closely chain of command separate from the UN ary, addressed to the Secretary-General related issue is the need for donors to quickly (as in Opération Licorne in Côte d’Ivoire, was circulated among Council members honour their pledges made in support of Mali, where they support the UN peacekeeping

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Mali (con’t)

mission but are not a part of it); or Council Dynamics as the assessment of the security situation on • assigning the French and other rapid reac- The Council appears to be unified regard- the ground. tion forces to support peacekeepers by ing the need for a peacekeeping operation Among Council members, views also dif- conducting counterterrorism operations to ensure the stability of northern Mali. The fer regarding the establishment of part of the in Mali while based in any of the neigh- idea of a hybrid military operation seems to future mission in Bamako or focusing mainly bouring West African countries. have been discarded by both the Council and on securing the north. Some members are Another future option for the Council the Secretariat. The widespread assumption sympathetic to the interim government’s when discussing the set-up of such a peace- seems to be that a mission under the UN unwillingness to have a heavier UN presence keeping operation would be to include in its flag would be more predictable and would in Bamako and its concerns regarding the mandate a role in facilitating the political rely on a clearer set of resources from the UN’s potential impact on the political pro- process in the whole of the country, including beginning. The US has a strong preference cess in the country. dialogue with minorities as well as support- for this option, being wary of directly fund- France is the lead country on Mali. ing the development of electoral management ing AFISMA or the MDSF. However, there capacities. are divergences regarding the timing as well

Guinea-Bissau

Expected Council Action the continued suspension of projects under The signing of these documents is expected In March, the Council will be briefed in con- the Peacebuilding Fund since the coup. to facilitate the parliamentary review of both sultations on the quarterly report on efforts In line with the recommendation of the documents, as well as the drafting of a new to restore constitutional order in Guinea- Secretary-General, resolution 2092 was transitional regime pact. It is also expected to Bissau following the 12 April 2012 coup, adopted on 22 February renewing UNIOG- facilitate consensus on a roadmap that would possibly by Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, Assistant BIS’s mandate for an additional three months. clarify the modalities of the transition, includ- Secretary-General for Political Affairs. No While there is new language reflecting issues ing its duration and the timeline for elections, outcome is expected. that have emerged since the adoption of the which were originally scheduled for April but The mandate of the UN Integrated Peace- previous mandate in resolution 2030 (21 have been postponed. building Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOG- December 2011), the mandate itself remains An AU-led joint assessment mission vis- BIS) expires on 31 May 2013. largely unchanged to allow José Ramos- ited Guinea-Bissau from 16-21 December Horta, the incoming Special Representative and brought together five key international, Key Recent Developments of the Secretary-General, time to conduct an regional and subregional players—the AU, The Council received a briefing by Zerihoun assessment of the situation on the ground, the Economic Community of West African on 5 February that focused on the situation which will be reflected in the Secretary- States (ECOWAS), the Community of Por- in Guinea-Bissau and activities undertaken General’s next report. After the three-month tuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP), the by UNIOGBIS. Zerihoun highlighted key period, a new resolution will be negotiated EU and the UN—all of whom are closely elements of the Secretary-General’s report that is expected to result in a new and signifi- following the situation in the country. The of 11 January, noting that while there has cantly different UNIOGBIS mandate. mission met with a wide range of national been some progress in the transition process, On 17 January, the main opposition party, actors, with the objectives of assessing the impunity remains a major concern in the the Partido Africano da Independência da political and security situation, exploring country (S/2013/26). Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC), and four other avenues for building consensus and pro- Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti parties, joined the political transition pact moting cooperation among the participat- (Brazil), chair of the Guinea-Bissau configura- and the political agreement that had been ing organisations. tion of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), signed by the military junta and 17 political At an AU meeting on 26 January, mission also briefed the Council on 5 February, noting parties on 16 and 18 May 2012 respectively. participants agreed on the need to undertake

UN DOCUMENTS ON GUINEA-BISSAU Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2092 (22 February 2013) renewed the mandate of UNIOGBIS until 31 May 2013. S/RES/2048 (18 May 2012) imposed foreign travel bans on coup leaders and set up a sanctions committee. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/15 (21 April 2012) was on the coup in Guinea-Bissau. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/26 (11 January 2013) was the Secretary-General’s report covering developments in Guinea-Bissau and on the activities of UNIOGBIS. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2012/975 (31 December 2012) was a letter transmitting the annual report of the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee. SC/10721 (20 July 2012) was a press release concerning the addition of six army officers to the list of individuals subject to a foreign travel ban. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6924 (22 February 2013) was on the adoption of the resolution renewing UNIOGBIS’s mandate. S/PV.6915 (5 February 2013) was on developments in Guinea-Bissau and on the activities of UNIOGBIS. Security Council Press Statement SC/10857 (13 December 2012) expressed serious concern over the lack of progress in the restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau. Letters S/2012/974 (31 December 2012) was regarding the appointment of José Ramos-Horta as Special Representative and head of UNIOGBIS. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNIOGBIS José Ramos-Horta (Timor-Leste) UNIOGBIS Size, Composition and Budget Strength as of 31 December 2012: 61 international civilians; 53 local civilians; two military advisers; 16 police; seven UN volunteers UNIOGBIS Duration 1 January 2010—31 May 2013 Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee Ambassador Mohammed Loulichki (Morocco) Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Configuration of the PBC Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeird Viotti (Brazil) ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB) Size and Duration Strength as of 6 November 2012: 629 soldiers and police (contributing countries: Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Senegal); March 2012—17 May 2013

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Guinea-Bissau (con’t) a second joint assessment mission following Human Rights-Related Developments the 2048 Sanctions Committee in moni- the adoption of the transition roadmap by the Addressing the issue of impunity during the 5 toring sanctions’ implementation; People’s National Assembly. February briefing Zerihoun noted that none of • delinking in resolution 2048 the designa- At press time, the final report of the joint the individuals involved in the violations that fol- tion criteria listed in operative paragraph lowed the alleged counter-coup of October 2012 assessment mission had yet to be issued. It have been brought to justice—although there seven from operative paragraph six to ena- seems that the report’s recommendations will are reports that 17 detainees were charged by ble the Sanctions Committee to take fur- focus on a number of key areas, including the Military Court and are awaiting trial. He also ther action against those involved in drug the need for strong and coordinated interna- pointed out that UNIOGBIS staff have visited trafficking and organised crime in Guinea- tional community engagement to ensure an detention centres and have confirmed inadequate Bissau as hinted in resolution 2092; and detention conditions including detainees’ lack of inclusive transition as well as political, finan- access to medical care, food and water. • mandating an independent commission of cial and technical support towards the adop- inquiry to investigate political assassina- tion of a new transitional regime pact and the tions not covered by the 2008 amnesty law holding of free and fair elections. The devel- Key Issues (which applies to acts committed up to 6 opment of two action plans—one on defence The overarching issue for the Council October 2004) in light of the weak state of and security sector reform and the issue of remains the restoration of constitutional the national judiciary. impunity and one on drug trafficking—is also order through free and fair elections. likely to be raised in the recommendations. A related issue of concern for Council Council and Wider Dynamics As noted in the 31 December report members is the role key international and Council members’ discussions of Guinea- issued by the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions regional stakeholders will play in the coun- Bissau continue to be based on the balancing Committee, violations of the travel ban by try’s transition, including support for the of their international and regional interests, two individuals were recorded and confirmed transition roadmap. which for some members includes not fraying by the Committee (S/2012/975). The possi- Ongoing issues include drug trafficking, relations with key partners such as ECOWAS bility of imposing further sanctions—such as organised crime and impunity related to to ensure effective cooperation on Mali and an assets freeze—continues to be discussed numerous political assassinations, of which the Sahel. within the Committee. several actors have been accused dating back Meanwhile, it appears that the AU may Some progress has been made since the to before the 12 April coup. be warming to ECOWAS’s requests (on 11 Secretary-General’s calls, in his reports November 2012 and on 19 January) for the of 27 November 2012 (S/2012/887) and Options AU to lift its suspension of Guinea-Bissau. 29 September 2008 (S/2008/628), for the A likely option for the Council is to receive While it seems that ECOWAS and CPLP Security Council to consider establishing a the briefing and take no action at the cur- have put their differences of opinion aside in panel of experts to conduct an investigation rent time, while awaiting the finalisation of the spirit of collaboration, reflected by their into drug trafficking and organised crime the joint assessment mission report and the participation in the joint assessment mission, in Guinea-Bissau. Council members have Secretary-General’s next report—which will there remain concerns that these differences experienced difficulties reaching consensus draw on the findings of the Special Represen- may re-emerge at any time. on this issue in the past; however, resolu- tative’s assessment—due in May. Council members and other key stake- tion 2092 raises the issue of drug trafficking Further options that could be discussed in holders have expressed support for the in no less than three preambular and two March, for consideration at the subsequent appointment of Ramos-Horta as Special operative paragraphs. While it is unlikely to briefing and consultations expected in May, Representative; however, some may harbour be addressed in the immediate future, there include: concerns about his close CPLP connections. remains a possibility that such a panel may • harmonising the reporting cycles of both Togo is the lead country on Guinea-Bis- be established by amending the existing UNIOGBIS and resolution 2048; sau, and Morocco is the chair of the 2048 sanctions regime. • establishing a Panel of Experts to assist Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee.

Liberia

Expected Council Action Tillander (Sweden), Chair of the Liberia con- Key Recent Developments In March, the Council expects a briefing by figuration of the Peacebuilding Commission The Council last discussed UNMIL on 11 Karin Landgren, Special Representative of (PBC), may also brief the Council following September 2012 (S/PV.6830), following the Secretary-General to Liberia and head the recent PBC mission visit to the country. which resolution 2066 was unanimously of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), on No outcome is expected. adopted on 17 September (S/PV.6834), the situation in Liberia, followed by consul- The mandate of UNMIL expires on 30 renewing its mandate for another year. On tations. In line with Council practice, Staffan September. 12 December the Council unanimously

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Liberia (con’t)

the Statement of Mutual Commitments. to implement the 2013 “Critical Humanitarian adopted resolution 2079 renewing the man- The inauguration of the first of five regional Gaps” response plan, prompted by a funding date of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Com- justice and security hubs in Gbarnga on 12 shortfall in a 2012 humanitarian appeal. mittee as well as its Panel of Experts until 12 February was a notable milestone in the decen- December 2013. tralisation of the justice and security sector. There has been increasing attention to the Supported by the Peacebuilding Fund, the hubs Key Issues represent a step forward in the peacebuilding issue of the reduction of UNMIL troop lev- process and are expected to increase access to A key issue for the Council is the drawdown els and the drawdown of the mission. Res- justice and security by co-locating police, courts of UNMIL and its transition to a smaller olution 2066 stipulates that UNMIL’s cur- and immigration departments, serving as a “one- presence, while ensuring sufficient national rent military strength will be reduced from stop shop” for their services. capacity to fill any gaps, particularly in the almost 8,000 to 3,750 troops by July 2015, Following the scathing resignation of security sector. Leymah Gbowee—co-winner of the 2011 Nobel with the first phase—consisting of a reduc- Peace Prize with President Ellen Johnson A related issue is that of reconciliation and tion of 1,990 troops—to be implemented Sirleaf—as head of the Peace and Reconciliation the peacebuilding process, ensuring that such by September 2013. The resolution never- Commission on 8 October 2012, Sirleaf appointed initiatives continue during and beyond the theless mandates an increase in UNMIL’s former opposition presidential candidate George drawdown of UNMIL. police component to a total of 1,795 police Weah to the position in early December. A popu- lar national figure due to his success in football, to support the transition. While the govern- his appointment may add legitimacy to Sirleaf’s Options ment supports the drawdown, media reports claims to be acting on behalf of all Liberians by One option is for the Council to receive the suggest there is some apprehension over demonstrating her willingness to work with past briefing and take no action. how it will fill the gaps in security following opponents. A second—and less likely—option is UNMIL’s departure. Despite continuing allegations of corruption for the Council to issue a press statement and nepotism within the Sirleaf administration, On 27 November 2012, the Secretary- Liberia has become less corrupt according to highlighting the importance of reconcilia- General appointed Aeneas Chapinga Chuma Transparency International, an international anti- tion and peacebuilding, and calling on the (Zimbabwe) as his new Deputy Special Rep- corruption watchdog group, coming in 75th place government to take on increasing security resentative for Recovery and Good Gover- in 2012 compared to 91st in 2011 out of 176 coun- responsibilities. nance as well as UN Resident Coordinator, tries surveyed. The issue of security along the border with Humanitarian Coordinator and Resident Council and Wider Dynamics Côte d’Ivoire remains a concern, with govern- Representative. On 7 February, the Secre- ments and peacekeeping missions in both coun- Council members are largely in agreement tary-General announced the appointment of tries working together to address the issue. Inter- on the issue of Liberia and are keen to see Tamrat Samuel (Eritrea) as his Deputy Spe- mission cooperation between UNMIL and the UN through the implementation of the draw- cial Representative for Rule of Law. Operation in Côte d’Ivoire continues, including down plan. There are, however, some divi- sharing assets such as helicopters and moni- sions among the permanent members on toring security along and across border areas. Developments in the Kadré Désiré Ouédraogo, head of ECOWAS, met the pace of UNMIL’s drawdown, with those Peacebuilding Commission with Sirleaf on 18 December, with both agreeing more heavily invested in Liberia preferring a From 11-15 February, a PBC mission visited on the need for concerted measures to secure more gradual withdrawal. Liberia with the aim of meeting with different border areas and praising coordination efforts While there has been some progress, between the two countries to date. On 8 January, stakeholders engaged in peacebuilding in the Council members are of the view that this country. The mission specifically focused on Liberian Defence Minister Bernie Samukai the issues of police reform in the context of the announced that army units would be withdrawn progress is not as swift as it could be and UNMIL transition, PBC contributions to security from border posts by 13 January—where they feel that it is time to apply pressure on the sector reform, rule of law and national recon- had been deployed since June 2012 following government to assume more responsibility ciliation, including the reconciliation roadmap repeated raids by armed gangs—declaring the for security, thereby relying less on UNMIL, border safe and secure. developed in April 2012. It also reviewed prog- which clearly still plays an important stabilis- ress made on the implementation of the Liberia Vulnerabilities persist among both Liberians Peacebuilding Programme as well as on the and Ivorian refugees in Liberia, resulting in unre- ing role. implementation by the government and the inter- lenting humanitarian needs for half a million peo- The US is the lead on Liberia in the national community of commitments contained in ple at risk of hunger and illness. The UN launched Council. an appeal on 19 February calling for $36.7 million

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBERIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2079 (12 December 2012) extended both the sanctions regime and the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 12 December 2013. S/RES/2066 (17 September 2012) extended the UNMIL mandate until 30 September 2013. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/641 (15 August 2012) was the report of the Secretary-General on UNMIL, providing an update on developments since 16 April 2012. Security Council Letters S/2013/12 (10 January 2013) was on the appointment of three members of the Panel of Experts. S/2012/886 (27 November 2012) was on the appointment of Major General Leonard Muriuki Ngondi of Kenya as the Force Commander for UNMIL. Sanctions Committee Document S/2012/980 (31 December 2012) was the annual report of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Committee. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMIL Karin Landgren (Sweden) UNMIL Size, Composition and Budget Strength as of 31 December 2012: 7,430 troops; 126 military observers; 1,306 police; 230 UN volunteers; 470 international civilians; 989 local civilians Budget: $496,457,800 UNMIL Duration September 2003—30 September 2013 Chair of the Liberia Sanctions Committee Ambassador Masood Khan (Pakistan) Chair of the Liberia Configuration of the PBC Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden)

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Sierra Leone

Expected Council Action adoption of resolution 2065 on 12 Septem- that the elections were marred by irregulari- The Council expects a briefing in March by ber 2012, renewing UNIPSIL’s mandate ties and fraud. Nevertheless, the SLPP con- Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, the Executive until 31 March 2013. The latter was a brief- ceded defeat and recognised Koroma as the Representative of the Secretary-General in ing on the Special Court for Sierra Leone by winner. Koroma was officially inaugurated Sierra Leone and head of the UN Integrated Justice Shireen Avis Fisher and Brenda Hol- on 22 February, in the presence of former Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone (UNIP- lis, President and Prosecutor of the Special President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah and Libe- SIL). In line with Council practice, Ambas- Court, respectively. Following the briefing, rian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. sador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada), the Council adopted a presidential statement On 14 December, during a speech at the chair of the Sierra Leone configuration of (S/PRST/2012/21) reiterating its strong sup- state opening of the Sierra Leone parliament, the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), may port for the Special Court and commending Koroma made reference to his intention to also brief following the recent PBC visit to the progress it had achieved as noted in its conduct a review of the constitution which the country. The briefings are to be followed report of 4 October (S/2012/741). has been in effect since 1991. by consultations. As requested in resolution 2065, the On 4 January, Koroma announced the A likely outcome is the adoption of a Secretary-General deployed an inter- appointment of a new cabinet, with some resolution renewing UNIPSIL’s mandate agency technical assessment mission (TAM) ministers maintaining the same portfolios as which expires on 31 March. At press time, to Sierra Leone from 14-25 January. The the previous cabinet while other portfolios the duration of the renewed mandate was objectives of the TAM were to conduct a were reshuffled. The overwhelming election unclear. review of progress made in the implemen- victory of Koroma’s All People’s Congress tation of UNIPSIL’s mandate, containing party gave it a clear and strong mandate, Key Recent Developments detailed proposals and making recommen- allowing for continuity from the previous The Council was last briefed in consulta- dations for UNIPSIL’s transition to a regu- administration and promoting political sta- tions by Toyberg-Frandzen on 28 Novem- lar presence, as well as assessing possible bility in Sierra Leone. ber 2012, shortly after the elections in options for UN support beyond UNIPSIL’s On 29 January, Koroma announced the which President Ernest Bai Koroma was withdrawal. launch of an Anti-Corruption Commission re-elected for a second five-year term. Two While most expected the TAM to provide investigation into allegations of misuse of days later, the Council issued a presidential a clear timeline for the conclusion of UNIP- donor funds, as well as the suspension of statement, commending Sierra Leone on SIL activities—expected to conclude by the ten officials in the Ministry of Health in the holding of successful presidential, par- end of 2013—meetings during the mission relation to the matter. An audit of funds liamentary, district and local elections and suggested that there is widespread concern from a grant provided by the Global Alli- calling for national dialogue and reconcilia- regarding the UN’s departure, with repre- ance for Vaccine and Immunization—an tion (S/PRST/2012/25). The statement also sentatives from the government, civil society international non-governmental organisa- urged the international community to con- and other groups voicing their resistance to tion that promotes access to immunisa- tinue its support to the country, requesting a quick withdrawal. At press time, the offi- tion—revealed concerns that more than $1 the Sierra Leone configuration of the PBC cial findings of the TAM were not available million may have been misused between to provide support in the way of resource and were expected to feed into the Secretary- 2008 and 2011. mobilisation and coordination of develop- General’s report due on 28 February. Nine months after his conviction by the ment partners. The 17 November elections were moni- Special Court for Sierra Leone on 26 April In the preceding months, the Council tored by approximately 300 international 2012, Charles Taylor appealed his 50-year received briefings on 11 September and 9 observers—including representatives from prison sentence during a hearing that took October 2012. During the former, Toyberg- the AU, EU, the Economic Community of place on 22-23 January. Appeals judges are Frandzen presented the Secretary-Gener- West African States, the Commonwealth expected to make a decision on the Taylor al’s ninth report on UNIPSIL of 31 August of Nations and the Carter Center—with case by 30 September, the anticipated end 2012 (S/2012/679), and the Council was all hailing the elections as reflecting the of its mandate. A Residual Special Court is briefed by Rishchynski and heard a state- will of voters. However, EU observers did expected to be created following its closure. ment by Ambassador Shekou M. Touray note some irregularities, and the opposition (Sierra Leone). This was followed by the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) said

UN DOCUMENTS ON SIERRA LEONE Security Council Resolution S/RES/2065 (12 September 2012) extended UNIPSIL’s mandate until 31 March 2013. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/679 (31 August 2012) was the Secretary-General’s report on UNIPSIL. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2012/25 (30 November 2012) commended Sierra Leone for the conduct and successful conclusion of elections. S/PRST/2012/21 (9 October 2012) reiterated its strong support for the Special Court and commended the progress the Special Court had achieved. Letters S/2013/16 (11 January 2013) and S/2013/15 (9 January 2013) was an exchange of letters regarding an extension of the Secretary-General’s report. S/2012/892 (28 November 2012) was a letter from the President of the Security Council to the Secretary-General regarding the Secretary-General’s proposal on alternate means of financing the Special Court for Sierra Leone. S/2012/741 (5 October 2012) was a letter from Rishchynski (in his capacity as chair of the management committee of the Special Court for Sierra Leone) to the President of the Security Council, transmitting a letter from the President of the Special Court and the report of 4 October on the Special Court and requesting that they be issued as a document of the Council. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6876 (30 November 2012) was the adoption of a presidential statement on the elections in Sierra Leone. S/PV.6844 (9 October 2012) was the briefing on the Special Court. S/PV.6829 (11 September 2012) was the briefing by Executive Representative Toyberg-Frandzen on the Secretary-General’s latest report and by Ambassador Rishchynski, chair of the PBC configuration for Sierra Leone. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNIPSIL Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen () UNIPSIL Size and Composition Strength as of 31 December 2012: 36 international civilians; 33 local civilians; seven police; eight UN volunteers UNIPSIL Duration 1 October 2008—31 March 2013 Chair of the Sierra Leone Configuration of the PBC Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada) President of the Special Court for Sierra Leone Justice Shireen Avis Fisher (USA) Special Court of Sierra Leone Duration 2 December 2002—30 September 2013

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Sierra Leone (con’t)

working alongside UN funds and programmes. Developments in the Such a role could include absorbing peacebuild- continue its role providing political support— Peacebuilding Commission ing-related residual tasks from UNIPSIL. particularly for the constitutional review— From 15-20 February, a PBC mission visited and to implement the transition strategy Sierra Leone with the aim of meeting with differ- Key Issues according to the timeline recommended by ent stakeholders engaged in peacebuilding in the A key issue of concern for the Council is the the TAM. country. The mission specifically focused on the political and economic outlook for Sierra Leone timeline for UNIPSIL’s withdrawal and how Renewing the mandate for a shorter over the post-election phase and outstanding its responsibilities should be transferred to a period is another option. peace consolidation issues, as well as the role regular UN presence. of the UN with a focus on UNIPSIL’s transition A related issue is the future role of the Council and Wider Dynamics and the support that the PBC could potentially Sierra Leone configuration of the PBC in Sierra Leone is a non-contentious issue for provide. During the visit, the mission engaged with the Mano River Union—a regional associa- the country, including its possible assump- the Council, with members remaining like- tion that fosters economic cooperation among tion of UNIPSIL’s peacebuilding-related minded on the transition and withdrawal of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea—to discuss responsibilities. UNIPSIL. further collaboration towards the adoption of a The UK is the lead on Sierra Leone in the regional approach to peacebuilding. Options Council, and Canada is the chair of the PBC The Sierra Leone configuration of the PBC can potentially play a key role in UNIPSIL’s transition, The main option is for the Council to renew country configuration for Sierra Leone. UNIPSIL’s mandate for twelve months to

Haiti

Expected Council Action Subsequently, on 12 October the Council operations rather than reconstruction, he In March, the Council will consider the Sec- adopted resolution 2070, renewing the man- asserted that a new approach was needed. retary-General’s semi-annual report on the date of MINUSTAH until 15 October 2013 Before leaving his post, Fernández gave UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUS- and authorising a reduction by June of 1,070 a final briefing to Council members—at the TAH). The report is expected to include a military personnel (from 7,340 to 6,270) and initiative of Guatemala—in consultations plan for the consolidation of MINUSTAH 640 police personnel (from 3,241 to 2,601) on 22 January. His assessment of the sit- based on a set of stabilisation benchmarks. as recommended by the Secretary-General. uation in Haiti was perceived as markedly A debate with a briefing by Nigel Fisher (This will bring the total troop level down to less positive than at the Council meeting (Canada), acting Special Representative of approximately where it was before the 12 Jan- in October. In particular, Fernández said the Secretary-General and head of mission, uary 2010 earthquake, but with an increased there had been no progress towards estab- is expected. At press time, no outcome was ratio of police to military personnel.) lishing a functioning Permanent Electoral anticipated. Among other things, the resolution called Council and that the political situation had Ahead of the debate, the Council is for the installation of the Permanent Elec- deteriorated significantly. In the ensuing dis- expected to convene a meeting with MINUS- toral Council (a necessary step for the hold- cussions, he called on the Council to react TAH’s troop-contributing countries. The ing of legislative, municipal and local elec- to the situation. mission’s mandate expires on 15 October. tions postponed since November 2011) and The Group of Friends of Haiti in New also called for the elections to be held. In York (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, addition, it emphasised the importance of France, Guatemala, Peru, Uruguay and the Key Recent Developments strengthening the Haitian National Police, US) issued a joint statement on 23 January, The Council’s last debate on Haiti was held recognising police capacity-building as “a recognising Fernández for his work as Special on 3 October 2012. The then Special most critical task” for MINUSTAH. Representative, emphasising the importance Representative of the Secretary-General, On the third anniversary of the 2010 of maintaining the focus on strengthening Mariano Fernández, briefed the Coun- earthquake, President Michel Martelly said the rule of law, reiterating their support for cil on the 31 August MINUSTAH report in a speech that international aid to Haiti the development of a consolidation plan for (S/2012/678), which contained recom- after the earthquake had failed in helping MINUSTAH and strongly encouraging all mendations for a further drawdown of the rebuild the country. Noting that most of political actors in Haiti to enhance coopera- mission. the resources had been used on emergency tion and move forward with elections.

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2070 (12 October 2012) renewed the mandate of MINUSTAH until 15 October. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2011/7 (6 April 2011) was the latest presidential statement on Haiti. Security Council Press Statement SC/10901 (28 January 2013) was a Council press state- ment on Haiti, calling for the holding of elections by the end of 2013. Latest Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/678 (31 August 2012) Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6842 (3 October 2012) was the most recent debate on Haiti. Other A/HRC/22/65 (7 February 2013) was the report of the independent expert on the situation of human rights in Haiti. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of MINUSTAH Nigel Fisher (Canada) Size and Composition of Mission Current strength as of 31 December: 9,464 total uniformed personnel, including 6,809 troops and 2,655 police (including formed units); the uniformed personnel are supported by 451 international civilian personnel and 1,317 local civilian staff. Useful Additional Source Governing Haiti: Time for national Consensus, Latin America and Caribbean Report No. 46, International Crisis Group, 4 February 2013.

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Haiti (con’t)

human rights in Haiti, Michel Forst, who last In a 28 January press statement (SC/10901), visited the country from 25 November to 1 avoid further delays; Council members reaffirmed their support for December 2012. His latest report, issued on 7 • highlight the ongoing need to strengthen Haiti, urged political actors to redouble their February, addresses progress and obstacles in the capacity of the Haitian police; efforts to preserve progress made over the past reforming the justice system. It highlights the • express concern about the impact of the year and underscored the importance of hold- link between extended pre-trial detention and cholera epidemic and urge the interna- prison overcrowding while deploring poor deten- ing elections by the end of 2013. tion conditions. The report also underlines the tional community to support the Secre- In a press briefing on 15 February, Fisher importance of police reform and expresses con- tary-General’s initiative to eradicate chol- expressed concern about the continuing cern about illegal and arbitrary detention, harass- era in Haiti launched last December; impasse over the elections. He said this was ment, ill treatment and impunity. The report • emphasise the importance of ensuring also one of the predominant concerns raised furthermore notes the ratification of the 1993 accountability for crimes against human- Hague Convention on Adoption and addresses in recent meetings in New York he had with the issues of child domestic servants and traf- ity; and Council members and the Friends of Haiti. ficking of children. As for economic, social and • request more regular briefings from the Additionally, Fisher noted that economic cultural rights, the report focuses in particular on Department of Peacekeeping Operations growth had been much slower in 2012 than the right to food, education and access to health, on the situation in Haiti (in addition to the predicted (GDP grew by only 2.5 percent as well as living conditions in camps, including customary semi-annual briefings coincid- gender-based violence. instead of the foreseen 8 percent) and that ing with the Secretary-General’s reports). there were concerns about the independence of the judiciary. Key Issues Council Dynamics On 21 February, former President Jean- A key issue for the Council is the difficult It seems a few Council members were some- Claude Duvalier failed to appear for the third political situation and in particular the cur- what taken aback by Fernández’s change in time at a court hearing in Port-au-Prince rent impasse relating to the establishment of tone at the 22 January briefing and the more relating to accusations against him of crimes the Permanent Electoral Council. (While a negative outlook he presented in compari- against humanity. In January 2012, a court compromise was reached in December to son with the October briefing. While there is ruled that Duvalier could not be prosecuted establish a Transitional College for a Perma- general concern about the impasse over the for such crimes because of the statute of limi- nent Electoral College, disputes have con- elections, some Council members, in par- tations. The hearing was intended to consider tinued over its implementation.) A related ticular the US, found his assessment to be an appeal filed by alleged victims of abuses issue is what role the Council can play in too negative and did not immediately see the committed under the Duvalier regime. It was encouraging the political parties to agree on need for any Council action. This seems to postponed until 28 February. a way forward. explain why it took almost a week for Coun- The Office for the Coordination of A second key issue in March is the cil members to agree on a press statement in Humanitarian Affairs reported in January expected MINUSTAH consolidation plan. response to the briefing. that the cholera epidemic was still of great Outstanding questions include what kind of With regard to MINUSTAH, some dif- concern, with the number of new cases priorities and benchmarks should be part of ferences remain among Council members and deaths for the first two weeks of 2013 the plan and what the time frame should be. as to what the mission’s main priorities exceeding the 2012 numbers for the same (There seems to be general agreement that should be as well as their longer-term per- period. As of 15 January, the total number the next presidential elections, scheduled for spectives, but they seem less pronounced of deaths since the epidemic started had 2016, will be an important milestone in this than in the past. While the UK in particu- reached 7,965. Meanwhile, the UN on 21 regard.) lar is perceived as eager for MINUSTAH February announced that it had formally A continuing issue is the need to keep to leave, Latin American members and the rejected compensation claims brought by up progress in building the capacity of the US are generally more cautious. All agree, victims of the epidemic, referring to the Haitian National Police to reach the goal of however, that MINUSTAH must stay until claims as “not receivable” under the Con- increasing the number of police officers from Haiti has the capacity to ensure its own vention on the Privileges and Immunities of 10,000 to 15,000 by 2016. security. The upcoming debate will likely the UN. A lawyer for the cholera victims said, bring more clarity as to Council members’ however, that they would challenge the UN’s Options current positions since the consolidation right to immunity from Haitian courts on the The most likely option is for Council mem- plan for MINUSTAH is expected to be a grounds that it had not established an alter- bers to listen to the briefing and express their key focus. native mechanism for dealing with account- national positions but take no further action The US is the lead country on Haiti. ability issues, as stipulated in its agreement at this stage. MINUSTAH mandate renewals are nor- with the government. Another option would be to adopt a presi- mally negotiated in the Group of Friends of dential statement that would: Haiti before being circulated to all Council Human Rights-Related Developments • welcome the conditions-based consolida- members. On 20 March, during its 22nd session, the tion plan for MINUSTAH; Human Rights Council will consider the report • emphasise the importance of holding the of the independent expert on the situation of elections and urge the political leaders to

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Cyprus

when negotiating and implementing peace agree- Expected Council Action Turkey transmitted a letter to the Secu- ments in line with resolution 1325. OHCHR con- In March, Council members may be briefed rity Council on 31 January from the self- cludes that the persisting division of the island in consultations by Alexander Downer, the proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern “continues to constitute an obstacle to the full Special Adviser to the Secretary-General Cyprus at the UN that “reiterate[d] the Turk- enjoyment… by the whole population of Cyprus on Cyprus, on the prospects for progress in ish Cypriot side’s readiness to engage with of all human rights and fundamental freedoms.” The HRC will also consider on 5 March the negotiations between the Greek Cypriot and the Greek Cypriot side, following elections in report of the Special Rapporteur on freedom of Turkish Cypriot communities. the South”. (Turkey is the only country that religion or belief, Heiner Bielefeldt, on his mission The mandate of the UN Force in Cyprus recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern to Cyprus. (UNFICYP) expires on 31 July. Cyprus.) Through resolution 2089 of 24 Janu- Underlying Problems Key Recent Developments ary, the Council renewed UNFICYP for Since high-level negotiations between Greek The briefing will likely focus on the presi- a period of six months with an abstention and Turkish Cypriots broke down in April dential elections in the Republic of Cyprus. by Azerbaijan (S/PV.6908). The text closely 2012, there has been very little progress made On 17 February, Nicos Anastasiades, of the resembled resolution 2058, the most recent towards a political settlement, due in part to centre-right party Democratic Rally, won renewal of UNFICYP, on which both Azer- Cyprus’s assumption of the EU presidency the first round with 45 percent of the vote. baijan and Pakistan had abstained. In its from 1 July to 31 December 2012 and in Satvros Malas, of the incumbent Progres- explanation of vote, Azerbaijan said that it part to the ambiguity attendant on a possible sive Party of Working People (outgoing Presi- fully supported the renewal of UNFICYP, change in Greek Cypriot leadership following dent Demetris Christofias did not stand for but references to the move towards “inten- the February elections. Though both of these re-election), received 27 percent of the vote. sive” negotiations were obsolete as talks had conditions have passed, leaders from the two As neither candidate won outright, a run- come to a substantive halt by mid-2012. It sides continue to hold the other responsi- off election was held on 24 February. Anas- also claimed that the resolution contained ble for the lack of progress in the high-level tasiades won that election with 58 percent references which were “no longer an issue” negotiations. of the vote. and lamented that the bulk of its proposals Anastasiades was a supporter of the had not been taken into account. Key Issues “Annan Plan” in 2004, which proposed the The adoption of resolution 2089 fol- The key issue for the Council is how to re- establishment of a federated United Cyprus lowed a briefing in consultations on the latest energise high-level negotiations between the Republic comprising two component states. UNFICYP report (S/2013/7) by Special Rep- Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots that However, that plan was decisively defeated resentative and head of mission, Lisa Butten- stalled in April 2012. Council members will in a referendum by the Greek Cypriot com- heim, on 17 January. The report noted “the be interested in hearing Downer’s assessment munity by a 76 percent majority and it is continuance of a low level of military viola- of how the February elections will impact his unclear how Anastasiades’s position on a tions committed by the two opposing forces” efforts to restart negotiations towards finding settlement might have evolved since. While during the reporting period but described the a solution to the Cyprus issue. previous presidential contests in the Repub- situation along the ceasefire lines as relatively lic of Cyprus have tended to focus on the calm and stable. Options reunification of the island, the campaign this One option for the Council is to simply year focused instead on economic concerns. Human Rights-Related Developments receive the briefing and take no action. How- (Cyprus has been seeking a bailout of 17.5 On 20 March, during its 22nd session, the Human ever, should the Council decide to adopt a billion euros from the EU for months.) Rights Council (HRC) will consider the 1 February statement, that statement could do one or Downer completed his most recent visit report of the Office of the High Commissioner more of the following: for Human Rights (OHCHR) on the question to Cyprus on 17 January, meeting separately of human rights in Cyprus covering the period • welcome the recent elections and encour- with Christofias for the last time before the from 1 December 2011 to 30 November 2012 (A/ age the new Greek Cypriot president to elections and Turkish Cypriot leader Der- HRC/22/18). Based on recent findings of inter- seek agreement with the Turkish Cypriots; vis Eroğlu. Both sides expressed their wish national and regional human rights mechanisms, • encourage both sides to be constructive in to see renewed developments in the hopes the report documents instances of human rights their approach to negotiations; or concerns and recent developments with regards of achieving a settlement. On 22 January, to the question of missing persons, the principle • establish a deadline for renewed negotia- Downer announced his intention to visit of non-discrimination, freedom of movement, tions to underscore the urgency of achiev- the island again in March following Greek property rights, freedom of religion and cultural ing a settlement, and call for a possible Cypriot elections and his intention to brief rights, freedom of opinion and expression and review of UNFICYP in light of the con- the Council on his visit soon after. the right to education. The report also highlights tinuing lack of progress towards a political the importance of adopting a gender perspective

UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2089 (24 January 2013) renewed UNFICYP for six months. S/RES/2058 (19 July 2012) extended UNFICYP’s mandate until 31 January 2013. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2013/7 (7 January 2013) was the most recent report on UNFICYP. S/2012/149 (12 March 2012) was the most recent report on the status of negotiations in Cyprus. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6908 (24 January 2013) was a meeting on Cyprus at which resolution 2089 was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention by Azerbaijan. S/PV.6809 (19 July 2012) was a meeting on Cyprus at which resolution 2058 was adopted. Human Rights Council Documents A/HRC/22/18 (1 February 2013) was the OHCHR report on the question of human rights in Cyprus covering the period from 1 December 2011 to 30 November 2012. A/HRC/22/51/Add.1 (24 December 2012) was the report of the Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief, Heiner Bielefeldt, on his mission to Cyprus. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNFICYP: Budget Appropriation (1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013): $54.192 million (one-third of which is funded by the government of Cyprus, with $6.5 million from Greece).

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Cyprus (con’t)

solution. (The possibility of a review has longer constituted a threat to international Council members, as the Greek Cypriot been contentious in the past and remains peace and security and so there was no lon- side seems to be especially opposed to the an unlikely option.) ger any need for the mission. Several Council establishment of such deadlines and Council members, and the Republic of Cyprus, con- members who are more sympathetic to the Council Dynamics sider the question of a review to be anathema. Greek Cypriot position (such as France and Over the past year or so, Cyprus has become Negotiations over resolution 2089 were not Russia) are likely to press their case. a controversial matter in the Council in as divisive as those last July but still dem- Nonetheless, most Council members comparison to previous years. Differences onstrated that some divisions remain on the agree that the elections constitute an oppor- became evident during negotiations on reso- question of Cyprus. tunity for a new beginning for negotiations lution 2058 in July 2012 and centred on the Some Council members have expressed and renewed attention from the Council on inclusion of language referring to a poten- interest in establishing a new negotiating the issue. tial review of UNFICYP. Several members timetable for Downer to present to the Greek The UK is the lead on Cyprus. considered such a call to be equivalent to and Turkish Cypriots. However, such a pro- asserting that the situation on the island no posal is also likely to be very divisive among

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 27 Notable Dates for March Security Council Report Staff Bruno Stagno REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN MARCH REQUESTING DOCUMENT Executive Director

Joanna Weschler 15 February...... Panel of Experts final report to the 1970 Libya Sanctions ...... S/RES/2040 Deputy Executive Director & Committee Director of Research

20 February...... SG report on UNSMIL (Libya) ...... S/RES/2040 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 28 February...... SG report on the restoration of constitutional order in ...... S/RES/2048 Guinea-Bissau Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior Research Analyst 28 February...... SG report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (UNIFIL/...... S/RES/2064 Lebanon) Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & 28 February...... SG report on UNMIL (Liberia) ...... S/RES/2066 Development Officer Victor Casanova Abos 28 February...... SG report on UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone)...... S/RES/2065 Research Analyst late February...... AU report on AFISMA (Mali)...... S/RES/2085 Charles Cater Research Analyst

7 March...... SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan)...... S/RES/2041 Nicole Rencoret Research Analyst 11 March...... SG report on UNMISS (South Sudan) ...... S/RES/2057 Paul Romita Research Analyst 12 March...... SG report on MINUSTAH (Haiti)...... S/RES/2070 Eran Sthoeger 13 March ...... SG report on UNAMI (Iraq)...... S/RES/2061 Research Analyst

Robbin VanNewkirk 19 March...... SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights)...... S/RES/2084 Publications Coordinator

20 March...... SG report on Mali...... S/RES/2085 Dahlia Morched Research Assistant

Laura Coquard-Patry MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Research Assistant

James Reed Ball III 7 March ...... AMISOM authorisation ...... S/RES/2073 Research Assistant

16 March...... UNSMIL (Libya)...... S/RES/2040 Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

16 March...... Panel of Experts to the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee ...... S/RES/2040 Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant 23 March ...... UNAMA (Afghanistan) ...... S/RES/2041 Security Council Report is a non-profit organization supported 31 March...... UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone) ...... S/RES/2065 by the Governments of Australia, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, OTHER IMPORTANT DATES New Zealand, Norway, Saudi Arabia,1Singapore, Sweden and , the Ford Foundation, the 7 March...... The next meeting of the Friends of Yemen is expected to be held in London. John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, International Development Research Centre and the William 18 March...... The opening of the National Dialogue Conference is expected in Yemen. and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

20 March...... It seems possible that Council members may be briefed in consultations by Alexander Downer, Design Point Five, NY the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Cyprus. Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza 885 2nd Ave at 48th St, 21st Floor New York NY 10017

Telephone +1 212 759 6394 Fax +1 212 759 4038 Web securitycouncilreport.org whatsinblue.org

The material in this publication is subject to copyright ownership. Material in this publication may be freely used as in the public domain. You are free to copy, distribute, or make derivative works of the work under the following conditions: you must attribute the work to Security Council Report, Inc.; you may not use this work for commercial purposes; if you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under a license identical to this one.

28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013