March 2013 Monthly Forecast 2 Status Update since our Overview February Forecast 3 Afghanistan The Russian Federation will preside over the Representative and head of mission, Martin 5 Iran Security Council in March. Kobler; 7 Iraq An open debate on Afghanistan is planned, to • developments in the Middle East, most likely 8 Lebanon be presided over by Russian Foreign Minister by the head of DPA, Jeffrey Feltman; and 9 UNDOF (Golan Heights) Sergei Lavrov. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon • Mali, also by Feltman. 11 Yemen and the Executive Director of the UN Office on Briefings in consultations are likely on: Drugs and Crime, Yury Fedotov, are expected as • the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the lat- 12 Somalia briefers. est report on the restoration of constitutional 13 Sudan and South Sudan A debate on Haiti is planned with a briefing order, most likely by the Assistant Secretary- 15 South Sudan by the acting head of MINUSTAH, Nigel Fisher. General for Political Affairs Tayé-Brook 17 Libya Also expected is the quarterly debate on Kosovo Zerihoun; (originally scheduled for February and postponed • the most recent report on resolution 1701, 18 Mali until March), with a briefing by Farid Zarif, the most likely by the Special Coordinator for 20 Guinea-Bissau Special Representative and head of UNMIK. Lebanon, Derek Plumbly; 21 Liberia A briefing is expected on the work of the 1737 • the most recent Secretary-General’s report on 23 Sierra Leone Iran Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambas- UNDOF (Golan Heights), most likely by the 24 Haiti sador Gary Quinlan (Australia). head of DPKO, Hervé Ladsous; Also expected is a briefing on cooperation • the situation in Yemen, by Special Adviser 26 Cyprus between the UN and the OSCE, by its Chairper- Jamal Benomar; 28 Notable Dates son-in-Office Leonid Kozhara (Ukraine). • the situation between Sudan and South Sudan, Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely by DPKO on one occasion and by Special on: Envoy Haile Menkerios on another; and • the DRC Framework Agreement by the Sec- • the work of the 751/1907 Somalia/Eritrea retary-General who witnessed the 24 Febru- Sanctions Committee, by its chair, Ambassa- ary signing ceremony between the DRC and dor Kim Sook (Republic of Korea). Angola, Burundi, CAR, Congo, Rwanda, Also possible is a briefing in consultations by South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda Alexander Downer, the Special Adviser to the and Zambia; Secretary-General on Cyprus, on the prospects • South Sudan and UNMISS, most likely by the for progress in negotiations between the Greek Special Representative and head of mission, Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities. Hilde Johnson; Formal sessions will need to be held to adopt • Sierra Leone and UNIPSIL, by its head Jens resolutions to reauthorise AMISOM (Somalia) Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, and by the chair of and renew the mandates of UNAMA (Afghan- the PBC country configuration, Ambassador istan), UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone), UNSMIL Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada); (Libya) and the Panel of Experts supporting the • Libya and UNSMIL, by the Special Represen- 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee. tative and head of mission, Tarek Mitri; Throughout the month, Council members will • the work of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Com- be following closely developments in Syria and a mittee by its chair, Ambassador Eugène-Rich- meeting on this issue may be scheduled. 28 February 2013 ard Gasana (Rwanda); This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. • Liberia and UNMIL, by the Special Represen- tative and head of mission, Karin Landgren, For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please and by the chair of the PBC country configu- subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” ration, Staffan Tillander (Sweden); series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. • Iraq and UNAMI, by the Special Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our February Forecast Terrorism Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), on Security Policy of the EU, briefed the Coun- On 1 February, Council members issued a the work of the Committee over the previous cil (S/PV.6919). She discussed a range of press statement condemning in the stron- three months. The briefing was Ambassador issues of recent significance: the EU’s engage- gest terms a terrorist attack against the US Lucas’ first since assuming the chairmanship ment in Somalia and anti-piracy efforts; the embassy in Ankara, Turkey (SC/10906). of the Committee on 1 January. EU’s financial and logistical support to the The attack resulted in one death and several African-led International Support Mission injuries. Protection of Civilians in Mali; nuclear non-proliferation efforts in On 12 February, the Council held its semi- the context of the E3+3 negotiations with DRC annual open debate on the protection of Iran and the EU’s opposition to recent tests On 5 February, Council members were civilians in armed conflict (S/PV.6917 and by the DPRK, EU facilitation of dialogue briefed in consultations by Under-Secretary- Resumption 1). The meeting was chaired by between Serbia and Kosovo; and the evolving General for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Foreign Minister Kim Sung-Hwan of the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Ash- Ladsous on developments on the ground and Republic of Korea and featured briefings by ton also stressed “the EU’s strong and long- on MONUSCO. The Secretary-General’s the Secretary-General, High Commissioner standing commitment” to “effective multilat- Chef de Cabinet, Susana Malcorra briefed for Human Rights Navi Pillay and the Inter- eralism with the United Nations at its core” on the Secretary-General’s diplomatic efforts national Committee for the Red Cross Direc- and specifically affirmed the regional organ- to obtain a political framework agreement. tor for International Law and Cooperation, isation’s support for the Security Council in On 22 February, the Council was briefed (S/ Philip Spoerri. More than 70 member states fulfilling its mandate. PV.6925) by Roger Meece, the Special Rep- also spoke. The Council adopted a presi- resentative and head of mission, on the Sec- dential statement reconfirming its commit- Sudan/Darfur retary-General’s 15 February MONUSCO ment to the protection of civilians, focusing On 14 February, the Council adopted reso- report (S/2013/96). On 24 February, Coun- in particular on the need to fight impunity for lution 2091 extending the mandate of the cil members issued a press statement wel- violations of international humanitarian and Panel of Experts of the 1591 Sudan Sanc- coming the signing of the framework agree- human rights law, the humanitarian impact tions Committee until 17 February 2014 (S/ ment in Addis Ababa that same day by the of conflict and implementation of peacekeep- PV.6920). Earlier in the month, the chair of Secretary-General and the chairpersons of ing protection mandates (S/PRST/2013/2). Committee, Ambassador María Cristina Per- the AU Commission, the Southern African The statement expressed the Council’s par- ceval (Argentina), circulated to the Council Development Community and the Interna- ticular concern about attacks against medical the 5 February report of the Panel of Experts tional Conference on the Great Lakes Region personnel and facilities and schools, teach- assisting the Committee (S/2013/79). The (SC/10924). In the statement, Council mem- ers and other protected school personnel as report outlined several violations by Sudan bers also supported the swift designation of well as violence against journalists and other of resolution 1591. It also indicated that dur- a UN Special Envoy to support implementa- media professionals. It requested the Secre- ing 2012 the Justice and Equality Movement, tion of the framework agreement. Council tary-General to submit his next report on the a rebel group in Darfur, had operated a large members also expressed concern about the protection of civilians by 15 November and base around Bentiu in South Sudan’s Unity worsening security and humanitarian situ- for reports to be submitted every 18 months State. ation in the eastern DRC, reiterating their thereafter. It also asked that the next report demand that the M23 cease attempts to cre- include an assessment of concrete measures Climate Change ate a parallel administration and that the taken by peacekeeping missions to imple- On 15 February, Ambassador Mark Lyall M23, FDLR and all other armed groups ment their mandate to protect civilians and Grant (UK) and Ambassador Masood Khan cease violence and destabilising activities. the impact of those measures. (Pakistan) co-chaired an Arria formula meet- ing on the “Security Dimensions of Climate DPRK (North Korea) Burundi Change”. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon In a 12 February press statement, Coun- On 13 February, the Council adopted resolu- made remarks at the opening of the meeting. cil members strongly condemned the tion 2090, extending the mandate of BNUB A panel of speakers included DPRK’s nuclear test that day as a grave vio- until 15 February 2014 (S/PV.6918). The the Honorable Mr. Tony deBrum, Minister lation of resolutions 1718, 1874 and 2087 Council requested the Secretary-General to in Assistance to the President of the Mar- (SC/10912). They recalled that resolution provide a briefing by the end of July 2013 shall Islands; Professor Hans Schellnhuber, 2087 expressed the Council’s determination and a report by 17 January 2014 on the Head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate to take “significant action” in