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January 2021 | Issue 19 A Monthly Newspaper Issued by The Levant News Media International - London Founder & Director: Thaer Alhajji | Chief Editor: Shiyar Khaleal

Iran: Regime Erdogan’s Stress-testing When “the on an economic Revolutionary Tehran caliph” tightrope Guard Corps talks

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UK and EU Reached Trade Agreement Calls for After difficult negotiations ,the European Nationwide Union and the UK signed a post- Brexit free trade agreement .Boris Lockdown in Johnson, the Prime Minister of the UK ,and Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Britain Commission ,confirmed that British scientists called for the agreement had been lockdown measures to be expanded. signed only seven days before The government issued a new «stay the UK's withdrawal from one home» order and closed all non- of the biggest trade bloc in the essential shops like restaurants, pubs world. and bars except for takeaways and Johnson tweeted" :the deal is deliveries. Now around 24 million done ".At a Downing Street press people in England i.e. more than conference ,Boris Johnson said 40% of the population are under that UK have taken back control tough restrictions. of its laws and destiny and that «The Guardian» stated that UK would have full political and scientists confirmed that tougher economic independence. measures must be taken at present. The agreement allows both Scientists from the Independent parties to impose tariffs in SAGE have urged that all regions case one of them threatens the of England to be placed in tier 4, interests of the other .The Prime meaning that non-essential shops Minister of the UK stated that must close and restrictions should the signed agreement will offer include travel restrictions. new stability and certainty to the It is worth noting that Britain British companies .He confirmed announced in early December the that the UK will be EU's friend, discovery of a new Covid 19 variant. ally ,supporter and number one A growing number of countries market .Von der Leyen said that reported cases of the new virus It was a long and winding road to variant, three Arab countries are reach that agreement but It is fair among them: Oman, Lebanon, Boris Johnson with the EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen earlier this year and balanced. Jordan.

At the Sanctionsend of December, Gennadyon Kazakevich, on«Putin's the City Executive ally» Committee, the the United States announced the blacklist. KGB for countering imposition of sanctions on officials It held him responsible for the terrorism, the Special and government and security suppression of the demonstrations Purpose Police Unit. institutions in Belarus. against President Alexander To date, the U.S. Department of The US Department of the Treasury Lukashenko. The sanctions also State has imposed visa restrictions revealed that it has placed the included Belarus's election central on a total of 63 individuals for Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs committee, the Main Internal their involvement in undermining and Chief of the criminal police, Affairs Directorate of the Minsk democracy in Belarus. Reports How is important to bring German Jihadist home? for such conflict zones had German and indoctrinated by radical Syrian Kurdish authorities say they passports. The German Interior terrorist groups and are returning are unable to handle the burden of Jassim Mohamad Ministry estimates around one-third to Germany from war zones. Some detained foreign IS fighters and the of these people( one thousand) have of them, were brainwashed in IS rehabilitation of non-combatant already returned to Germany, some schools and are highly radicalized. women and children. German public broadcaster of whom have been prosecuted or IS propaganda promotes children US Joint Special Operations SWR said the group, reportedly placed in rehabitation programs. as “a new generation of IS fighters, Command center in Jordan, Gallant comprising five women and eighteen There are around 270 of the German portrayed as ruthless and violent,” Phoenix collects intelligence on children, including seven orphans, women and children are still in Iraq German Interior minister said, fighters who fought for the likes of were handed over to a Foreign or Syria. Some 75 percent of the adding they might be dangerous the so-called “Islamic State” (IS) Office delegation by Kurdish envoys children are believed to be under upon their return and grow up as and other Islamist militia groups. at Qamishli in northeastern Syria. A the age of three and are assumed to second-generation jihadists. Relevant information includes “humanitarian” recovery operation have been born in a “jihad area,” the The interior ministry, Bf V documents,, data, DNA traces and had brought home 18 children and Interior Ministry said. report said that during coalition fingerprints that have been retrieved five “Islamic State” (IS) brides from Germany’s secret service has negotiations between Chancellor from former IS strongholds. Kurdish-run internment camps in reportedly joined a US-led unit Angela Merkel’s conservatives and Children were as much victims northeastern Syria. German Jihadist targeting jihadis returning to the Social Democratic Party (SPD), of the battle as the grown-ups, or The German government knows Europe from Iraq and Syria. Officials it was agreed that returning fighters perhaps even more so because they of more than one thousand have warned that many families of with double citizenship should have had no choice Islamists who have left Germany “Islamic State” fighters have already their German nationality canceled The urgent return of foreign fighters for Syria or Iraq to support terrorist returned home if there is evidence of their having and their families from the conflict organizations there. The figure The Federal Prosecutor’s office, fought for a terrorist militia. zone and bringing them home is the comes from an answer given by the however, would like to take a tougher European governments are worried best policy pursued by countries, government to a question from the stance on these women, arguing of repatriating their citizens who to fight extremism and terrorism, parliamentary representatives of the they strengthen the terrorist militia went to fight for an IS “caliphate” in and to rescue women, men and Left Party, according to newspapers from within as wives of IS militants Syria and Iraq, fearing the political children who, because staying in of the Funke media group. The and mothers who raise their kids in repercussions of bringing back Syria’s camps can be turned back government also cited security line with the groups ideology. extremists following a series of into extremist organizations, and authorities as saying that more than The Bf V warned of children and jihadi-inspired attacks in France, transferred again to new conflict and half of those who had left Germany adolescents who were socialized Germany and elsewhere in Europe. conflict areas.

The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 2 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Reports Europe’s Carrot does not Tempt Ankara ...

At the beginningand of last Cyprus.Brussels’s He spoke from Cyprus Stick is Brokenis going through a transitional October, the Europeans postponed during his last visit saying: “today period; it concerns regional imposing sanctions on Ankara for its in Cyprus there are two separate and international organizations, violations against Greek and Cypriot peoples, two separate democratic including NATO , especially when waters. On one hand they threaten orders and two separate states. it drivers behind its of foundation Erdogan with the stick of sanctions A two-state solution must be are no longer present. Therefore, and they tempt him with the carrot discussed and negotiated on the Turkey in particular is not the one of benefits & privileges, on the other basis of sovereign equality.’ He threatening the unity of NATO but hand, hoping it would convince him declared that Ankara’s priority is rather the conditions of the current to reverse his expansionist policies to reach a sustainable solution in strategic situation and the risks which aim at imposing a fait accompli Cyprus and ensure the legitimate that come from Erdogan’s regional on the European continent. rights and security of the Turkish and international policies. All of At the time, the Europeans decided Cypriots, and that no equation in this will lead to weaken NATO’s to give Ankara a second chance, the Eastern Mediterranean where unity, but it will not happen in the ignoring the Cypriot and Greek Turkey and the Turkish Republic short run; it will rather need some calls to implement the sanctions. of Northern Cyprus are not fairly time.” The German position is effectively involved will bring peace and He continued: “This is all are biased towards negotiations with stability”. related to Turkey’s strategic Ankara, rather than clashing with it, interests represented in its tough foreign policy. It adopted in contrast with the French position Shafiq asserts that “this shows President Macron which maintains that Turkey only Erdogan’s real intentions in using militarization of its foreign understands the language of actions, this historical conflict to create sanctions on Turkey over its actions policies to achieve one main goal, as Macron previously said. The a functional presence for Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean. The which is obtain EU membership, second summit, which the Europeans in eastern Mediterranean, which is German Chancellor, Angela Merkel which was reflected in Turkish had promised to be decisive, is on the rich in oil and gas, and compete with confirmed that the EU leaders officials’ statements that described way. Yet, Ankara has only become Greece which has recently drawn up would discuss Turkey’s actions it as a strategic priority, and part of more stubborn and difficult. its maritime borders with Egypt, as in eastern Mediterranean, during the Turkish doctrine. France, which well as France.” the upcoming summit, where it is plays major roles in Europe along pursuing natural gas exploration in with Germany, will not allow this Efforts to Divide Cyprus contested waters, telling reporters: to pass at this time, especially since Berlin Dampens its Enthusiasm In Cyprus, the Turkish President “Things have not developed in the Erdogan is providing full sponsorship announced, on November 17, that “a for Ankara way we hoped.” to political Islam organizations that new era will start which will lead to the Ankara has always depended on In this regard, Shafiq said to Levent: the French President, Emmanuel recognition of the Turkish Republic Berlin’s support, in trying to prevent “based on that, we find Erdogan not Macron, sees as a strategic enemy to of Northern Cyprus in the region and any direct confrontation or economic wasting a chance without confirming his country.” the wider world”. He was referring sanctions. However, German that Ankara will continue looking Accordingly, the question now is how to his attempts to divide the island, enthusiasm towards Ankara has for a solutions to this crisis, which serious the Europeans are in imposing despite the international powers’ faded down, with Ankara’s insistence is demonstrated in the way Turkey sanctions. The different European efforts to reunify it. This means giving on moving forward with its plans puts pressure on Europe, which is positions and lack of unity in the face the Republic of Northern Cyprus a that contradict the outcomes of the pushing European, especially France of the Turkish policies lead to doubts share of the territorial waters, which European summit that took place and Germany, towards making the about their ability stand up to them. is Turkey’s end game, in conjunction in early October. This can be clearly decision of imposing sanctions on Ankara realizes the weakness of the with its struggle against both Cyprus seen in a number of recent incidents, Turkey this month, as part of their divided European position based on each country’s interests, therefore it is and Greece. for example, on November 18, the effort to achieve a strategic balance not worried about the consequences Commenting on the development, German Parliament approved, by a between their interests and their of any real confrontation. This is likely Egyptian journalist and researcher majority, a joint request submitted attempt to stop Erdogan’s dangerous “Rami Shafiq” said in a statement to reinforce the division in Europe by the governing grand coalition moves in their strategic areas. to “Levent News” : “Recep Tayyip parties, the Free Democratic Party between the two poles of interests Erdogan -who is getting carried away and the Green Party, calling on the and lead to a confrontation, which with militarizing foreign policies government to consider banning NATO is put to test will only involve countries that are towards the Middle East, especially Grey Wolves organization. Commenting on Turkey’s actions in practically and directly affected by in Libya, Syria and Azerbaijan- is Heiko Maas, the German Federal the Mediterranean and weakening the Turkish expansionist ventures, putting pressure on Europe through Minister for Foreign Affairs, said NATO’s unity, the Egyptian mainly Greece, Cyprus and France, illegal immigration and the clash with on November 19 that the EU could researcher said to Levent: “It must some other Mediterranean countries Greece and Cyprus over Northern consider, in the EU summit, imposing be emphasized that the whole world may support them too. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 3 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Reports Iran: Regime on an economic tightrope

On 2 Decemberwith a budget that doesn’t balancethe second half of the year 2020 the Iranian president, to make up for the budget Hassan Rouhani, presented deficit caused by declining the year 1400 (Persian oil sales in the first half calendar) budget to the of the year. This scenario parliament, to be reviewed will definitely not happen and considered. Debate because there are at least over the government’s 30 days left until a possible budget and revenue government change in the sources had already begun United States. prior to the presentation But, suppose we assume that of the budget itself. The by January 20, when Biden government has aligned takes office, Iran’s current next year’s budget based on oil revenues continue, and anticipation of increased Biden will suspend Iran’s oil exports; this will only be oil sanctions on the same achieved if an agreement day as his inauguration. In is reached with the United that case, Iran will hope States. to sell 3 million barrels The government, in per day in February and compiling this budget, has March to offset this year’s raised the overall budget budget deficit. In other ceiling by around 400 Iranian president Hassan Rouhani words, contrary to what the thousand billion tomans government claims, Iran is (Iranian currency) from last expenses of the country than its of this year, in reality it was only able eagerly waiting for Trump year. Last year the government had privately owned entities affiliated to sell 27 thousand billion tomans to leave and for its oil to be sold and set the resources and expenditures with the government. of oil. Next year, the government for sanctions to be lifted. at 2,026 thousand billion Tomans, But to see how Rouhani has has considered its dollar revenues If the oil sanctions are not lifted which has increased to 2,435 assessed next year’s oil sales, one at an optimistic conversion rate in the Biden administration or the thousand billion Tomans in next may need to have a more detailed of 11,500 tomans per US dollar. suspension of sanctions is subject to year’s budget. Of this amount, 929.8 look into the revenue from oil and Another variable in calculating total negotiations that will probably last thousand billion Tomans go to the oil derivatives sales. In the annual oil revenue is the base rate per barrel more than a year, like the previous country’s general budget, and 1,562 budget, the resources from the sale of oil based on the Ministry of Oil agreement with Iran, they will have thousand billion Tomans is allocated of oil are included under the heading estimates. This oil revenue in the a revenue deficit of around 198 to state-owned companies, non- “Government public resources from budget is based on an also optimistic thousand billion tomans next year, profit institutions affiliated to the the place of transfer of capital assets”. $40.00 US a barrel. just from the non-realization of oil government and banks. In this sector and based on what is Now that we have all the numbers, revenues. Naturally, this budget The bill is slightly expansionary stated in the first part of the budget, the we can come to a conclusion that deficit will lead to higher prices for the in the general budget sector and government is assuming 252 thousand shows the nature of this budget. The people and more poverty. Presently, contractionary in the sector related billion tomans from oil revenues. government forecasts sales of 2.3 more than 60% of Iranians live below to state-owned companies and In other words, from a total of 841 million barrels of oil per day for next the absolute poverty line, and with banks. In other words, comparing trillion tomans expenditures of the year, to fulfil its 252 thousand billion next year’s budget, this percentage the total public budget of last year public administration (expenditures tomans oil revenue goal. Meanwhile, would be expected to increase with the coming year, we see that without dedicated revenue), about in this year’s budget, the share of further. But the consequences of the government has assumed at 35% of it depends on the fate of oil oil revenue is 107 thousand billion this budget deficit do not end here least 48% annual inflation and has barrels. But when we convert 252 tomans. The figure of 107 thousand and, rather than accepting further included it in the growth of the thousand billion tomans into dollars billion tomans was predicted based grinding poverty, we will surely country’s public expenditures for and the number of barrels needing on the daily sales of 1.1 million barrels see the reaction and anger of more the next year. But in the revenues to be sold, we may understand the of oil, which, of course, in the first people and in the form of uprisings and expenditures of state-owned government’s dilemma regarding half of this year and taking the best of the type of November 2019, which companies and banks, only 8% optimism or pessimism about foreign possible estimate, was underachieved ignited with the increase in gasoline growth is being considered. It seems developments. as Iran was only able to sell 500,000 prices and spread in more than 100 that next year if the government Although the government budgeted barrels of oil per day. cities in a short period of time, and, achieves 100% of its income, it will for about 54 thousand billion tomans The government must be able to sell of course, this time may lead to the pay more attention to the public of oil revenue for the first six months 1.6 million barrels of oil per day in overthrow of Khamenei. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 4 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Reports From Selling Afrin to Selling Armenia ...

The fall of Afrin instillRussia within Azerbaijan, accordingHas to Armeniano isFriend Asking for Help ... Vladimir Putin, his Azerbaijani northwestern Syria, which has the the international law, but against the counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, and the largest Kurdish population in the will of the Armenian people living and the Russian Line is Busy Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol country along with Kobane and in that region. Russia’s position, On October 25, the Armenian Prime Pashinyan, issued a joint statement Jazirah, in the spring of 2018, caused despite being a friend to Armenia, Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed stipulating the declaration of a widespread outrage among Syrian historically, was vague. Even though that the deployment of Russian ceasefire in the Karabakh region, Kurds. It was seen as a political international law is on Azerbaijan’s peacekeepers in the conflict zone in starting from November 10, while failure by their leaders in deal with side, Russia was able, as a permanent Karabakh could be a way to get out of keeping their forces where they had the influential international players member of the United Nations, the war saying that the members of the been deployed before reaching the in the Syrian crisis, which raises the to call for a referendum on self- OSCE Minsk Group have to support agreement. Aliyev described the question of “Who sold Afrin?” determination, as it did in Crimea, and encourage the deployment of the statement as “victory to Azerbaijan Fingers are mainly pointing to Russia, which it managed to annex under Russian peacekeepers in the conflict and surrender by Armenia “, while zone. He also added: “We have not given that Afrin is part of the areas the pretext that the Crimean people Pashinyan said that this decision was seen any concrete step to prevent under Russian influence. voted for joining Russia. Similarly, in difficult and painful, but necessary a humanitarian crisis” without the The region was split into Eastern the Donbass region in Ukraine, Russia because it prevented the loss of Armenian leadership daring to Euphrates (American influence)has supported Russian separatists Stepanakert (the capital of Artsakh) directly accuse Russia of leaving it and western Euphrates (Russian since 2014. and other cities, and besieging the to face the military technologies that influence), Russia had pointsGiven that this issue might threaten unrecognized Artsakh Republic’s Ankara provided to Baku, in order to of contact in Afrin which it had Russo-Turkish interests, Russia made army which consists of 20,000 Soldier win the war, in addition to sending intentionally withdrew a day before statements that effectively confirm it Armenia sought Russia’s help with the thousands of Syrian mercenaries the large-scale military attack on had sold Karabakh to Azerbaijan to deterioration of the military situation from the militias of the “Syrian January 18, 2018. Since that day, the make new deals with Turkey. This can in Baku’s favour. On October 31, National Army” whom Ankara sent people of Afrin have accused Russia be clearly seen in many occasions; on the Armenian Ministry of Foreign to Karabakh to fight the Armenians. of selling their land to Turkey so that it October 7, the Kremlin claimed that Affairs stated that Prime Minister can seize alternative areas of Ghouta, the Russia’s commitments towards Nikol Pashinyan asked Russia to Homs’s northern countryside, Abu al- Armenia within the Collective Armenia Loses the War begin consultations to help Armenia Duhur Military Airbase, and areas of Security Treaty Organization do Armenia realized that it has been preserve its security, during the Idlib in the east of the Hejaz Railway not extend to the self-proclaimed abandoned by its Russian friend. In ongoing fight in the Karabakh region. among others. Republic of Artsakh, supported by face of the Turko-Azerbaijani military The Russian Foreign Ministry said in Yerevan. That was practically seen superiority, there was no choice but a statement that Russia will render Karabakh .. the Other Afrin as a clear confirmation of Russia’s to withdraw and lick its wounds. Yerevan all necessary assistance if clashes take place on the territory The crisis of Karabakh has been hard refusal to go to war in the region in This is what happened on November of Armenia i.e. it refused to help to fully comprehend even before defense of the Armenians. 9, when the Russian President, September 27, when Azerbaijan Armenia in Karabakh. The statement began a large-scale military attack added that according to 1997 treaty on Nagorno-Karabakh region. Prior on friendship, cooperation and to that date, the region had been mutual assistance, Russia will provide under de facto Armenian control Yerevan with all necessary assistance since 1994, when Armenia won a if the clashes are rendered directly to 6 year war against Baku , before the territory of Armenia. Karabakh/Arstakh region declared From Afrin to Karabakh, it has its independence from Azerbaijan. become clear that Russia take little However, the region did not receive interest in the areas of its influence, any International recognition at the as long as their worth can be obtained time, even from Armenia, due to elsewhere. Moreover, Moscow has political conditions that governed the no problem in exchanging those areas balance of power in the region, until with others or in displacing their Azerbaijan began the attack again local people and settling others in nearly 26 years later. their place. Thus, Russia has no friend Towards the end of last September, except for its interests, although this following the start of Azerbaijan’s may be a common denominator attack, the tremendous Turkish among all major powers, Russia has support for Azerbaijan became surpassed them in that trait, or at least evident. It was aimed at restoring that is what the Kurds or Armenians control over the territories that were Russian military in Syria might say if asked. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 5 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Reports SADAT Erdogan’s Revolutionary

power throughGuard a military coup Corps d’état, NATO’s influence began to Anas Mamash rise within the army, at the same time as Tanriverdi’s popularity was growing. His rise accelerated under After the Gezi protestsEvren’s administration. Tanriverdi, that Turkey has witnessed in the the Islamist, graduated from the past few years, Erdogan reached a Armed Forces Academy in 1980 as a quick solution through establishing staff officer, he was then appointed a paramilitary force consisting of as head of the Directorate of mercenaries called SADAT “the Intelligence Branch, then a deputy private company of consulting chief of staff in the second infantry services for security and industrial division (Adapazarı), and a member and commercial construction”. Upon of the teaching staff of the military request from Erdogan, the officers academy. He was appointed head expelled from the Turkish armed of Special Warfare Department, forces “for being Islamists” formed Logistical Departments and SADAT and the intended goal was Operations Branch. Afterwards, he Demonstrators shout slogans as they clash with riot police in Istanbul (Archive) achieved. was promoted to be an army major different parts of the country. Wherever there is war, Turkey is there Erdogan established his own secret in August 1980, then a lieutenant SADAT activities began to float on providing soldiers and mercenaries. army on May 27, 2013, when the colonel in 1984, and a colonel in 1987. the surface of every regional conflict; This army (SADAT), which has Sixth Administrative Court and In 1990, he was appointed as head of it trained jihadis and sent them to recently appeared in the Caucasus, the Board of Cultural and Natural the 8th Corps Artillery Regiment fight against al-Assad’s regime in influenced the outcome of the war Heritage Preservation passed Law (Malazgirt). While he was in that Syria, Haftar’s forces in Libya, and the in favor of Azerbaijan, by supporting No. 2 against Erdogan’s government, position, he was promoted to be a Armenians in Karabakh. Moreover, its army against Armenia. It deployed which wanted to use Gezi Park in brigadier general on August 30, 1992, it has also recruited mercenaries huge numbers of mercenaries Taksim square in Istanbul’s Beyoglu after that he became the commander from Europe to fight besides their brought from Libya and Syria who district for construction purposes. of the Second Armoured Brigade counterparts wherever they are fought against the Armenian army, The move sparked public protests in in the Kartal region for three years deployed. and committed war crimes against many parts of Turkey. The security between 1992 and 1995, and head of It is said that in early 2012, SADAT the Armenian forces. forces could not tackle the protests the Health Department of the Land established a series of special camps easily; Erdogan decided to prepare Forces between 1995 and 1996, he in Marmara region to train Arabic- The opposition is daydreaming for any future problems by building retired on August 30, 1996, during speaking fighters to fight against the up an army of mercenaries that would the tenure of General Staff Ismail Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The opposition parties are planning follow him under a private company Hakki Karadayi. It was also reported that parts of to take control through democratic “SADAT”. the Turkish army used SADAT to elections but they have not taken into account SADAT which follows direct The Company’s Activity and suppress the alleged coup d’état in July 2016 against AKP. orders from Erdogan, who spent SADAT: Establishment of the Main Goals money on his own secret army. It has Company and a biography of its Tanriverdi later explained that evolved and grown in size after the founder: SADAT was established at the request Erdogan’s New Military Arm Gezi protests, in preparation for any On February 28, 2012, SADAT of the Justice and Development Party SADAT, which does not fall under clashes that break out if he loses the was established by 23 retired and (AKP), which began to group the government restrictions, follows next elections, as he will not step aside non-commissioned officers, under special fighters and members of the direct orders from the Turkish easily. Erdogan could not even accept the leadership of the Islamist Turkish Armed Forces who were Prime Minister and does precisely the loss of Istanbul in the municipal former Brigadier General Adnan expelled due to illegal activities. what he says. Erdogan sees it like the council elections. Therefore, in case Tanriverdi. On August 17, 2016, SADAT later flourished rapidly after Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran, a of his defeat in the general elections, Erdogan appointed Tanriverdi as a the Gezi protests. multi-purpose armed force to ensure SADAT will be put into action, as it is Presidential Adviser. Tanriverdi was Officially, the company presents itself political loyalty domestically and a constantly on standby, ready to tackle born in Akshehir, Konya in 1944, as a private establishment (a private military force to carry out terrorist any threat inside or outside Turkey, he joined the Military Academy in Turkish security contractor), but in attack outside Turkey. and fight any potential civil war in 1964, and in 1967 was promoted to reality it is no more than the military As Erdogan’s “secret army” inside and cold blood and with an iron fist. This be Lieutenant. He was appointed wing of AKP recruiting and training outside Turkey, SADAT is currently is how Erdogan wants to secure his a staff officer in 1978. In Kenan young people throughout Turkey participating in military activities political future while the opposition Evren’s administration, who took to use weapons in special camps in in Libya, Syria and the Caucasus. is daydreaming. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 6 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Interview ‍The Libyan Deputy Prime Minister to Levant: Turkey is the Biggest Threat to

the Arabambitions andWorld Qatar’s efforts tonot military cooperation”?only to Libya abort any settlement in Libya? This training for the GNA mercenaries Hager El-Desouky Turkey and Qatar have different roles is a blatant violation which its goal, in the Libyan crisis. Turkey does not as it is known, is to form the Turkish only threat Libya but also the Arab Mobilisation. The Deputy Prime Minister world. Turkey works on keeping the  In your opinion, What are the of the interim Libyan government, region unstable in order to exploit it, goals of the Turkish Mobilisation? Dr. Abd al-Salam al-Badri, expected especially countries rich in oil and Turkey fears that the freeze of that the future US and EU sanctions gas like Libya. Qatar supports the its military activity in Libya will against Turkey, would deter the terrorists in Libya to target Egypt not marginalize its role, that’s why Turkish President, confirming that the Libya, because the fall of Libya to the Erdogan provokes crises and starts political solution in Libya must root Muslim Brotherhood (MB) means wars in the region to cover up the out all foreign intervention whether the fall of Egypt. domestic problems he faces in an mercenaries or Turks. attempt to win a fake championship. Abd al-Salam al-Badri “Levant News” did an in-depth  Maybe that is why Egypt both the door and the window. interview with the Deputy Prime announced the red line between the  If these are the goals .. Don’t you We are always concerned about Minister “Abd al-Salam al-Badri” cities of Sirte and Jufrah .. Do you see that the Turkish Mobilization the MB’s intervention. Despite our described the nine-year-old Libyan think that this policy has deterred will not stop? rejection of their hateful ideology, crisis years ,confirming that Doha and Erdogan? This mobilization will end and unfortunately the foreign powers Ankara are key players in the Libyan Egypt is aware of Turkey’s Erdogan will not be able to return support them to be a thorn in Egypt’s crisis ,despite the different roles. conspiracy, that is why the Egyptian to Libya and threaten as he used back. President, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, to do. The whole thing is over by  First, the important question warned that Jufrah and Sirte are the agreements of the UN Security  The Libyan crisis witnessed a about the escalating complicated a red line. Before this warning, Council. If he returned, that would Turko-Algerian coordination, situation in Libya ... How would you Tripoli was about to be liberated, not be a problem as long as we have which was evident in Erdogan’s visit describe the nine-year-old Libyan even some militia leaders began the Egyptian support on our side. early this year .. How do you see the crisis? negotiating for a safe solution. If he crossed the red line, he would Algerian position? Libya has no problems at all. 95% However, liberation of Tripoli is learn a lesson that he will not forget. In the past, Libya and Algeria of Libyan are Arabs and 100% of not for Erdogan’s benefit, so he had divergent visions. However, I the Arabs are Muslims, therefore, used tenuous arguments to make  In your opinion, what are the think that the current president is there are no reasons for division and military intervention, such as the prospects for ending the war in less intense and supports national discord. Nevertheless, we are facing presence of about a million Libyans Libya? reconciliation. Honestly, I told the conspiracies and foreign interests of Turkish origin, but in the end, the First, the political solution in Libya Algerians on a visit that the fall of that have complicated the crisis and Libya leads inevitably to the fall of red line deterred that scheme. must be Libyan only. The foreign I do not expect that there will be a Algeria and the extremism centres in intervention will not help in resolving solution soon. southern Libya.  How do you reply to the the crisis because it was what ruined allegations which state that the the Libyan scene, so all foreign  In your opinion, who is behind  What do you think of the efforts of residents of Misrata are of Turkish disrupting the political solution in forces must leave Libya, whether the United Nations Support Mission origin? Libya? Turks or mercenaries. Secondly, in Libya (UNSMIL)? Fayez al-Sarraj is of Turkish origin, The countries which employ agents anyone whether a Libyan or not who We asked for the (UNSMIL) to therefore Erdogan has the right to are behind this because even if there ، has contributed and failed to find be reviewed, starting with Tarek are military operations in the end, talk about him. Yet, he has no right to a political solution must leave the Mitri, then Ghassan Salamé, and we will seek a political solution. The say that Misrata city is Turkish. This is political scene .. We all failed, let us finally the current Deputy Special conflicting parties must negotiate nonsense and false. leave! and leave Libya to others to try Representative for political affairs in to find a solution to the crisis, and to reform! Libya, Stephanie William. All of them clearly Qatar and Turkey are two  What do you think of the training  Do you feel concerned if the have characteristics but don’t qualify main parties in the Libyan crisis, in provided by the Turkish Ministry of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) recycled them to be mediators. addition to the Islamist extremists, National Defence for the members itself in power in Libya with the Honestly, there is still a difference such as Yusef Al-Qaradawi and others. of the Government of National suggestion of system of groups? between us and Stephanie, and this Accord (GNA) under what it calls The MB is a very insidious virus, and was evident in the Forum for Political  How do you see Turkey’s a “memorandum of security and it undoubtedly tries to enter from Dialogue in Tunisia. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 7 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Opinion Stress-testing Tehran

Ian Black

On November 27, when news broke about the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a chill descended on the Middle East. It felt like a dangerous spark that could ignite a destabilizing conflagration in the region in the final weeks of Donald Trump’s term in the White House. Iran quickly blamed Israel for targeting Fakhrizadeh – and not without reason. Binyamin Netanyahu, its prime minister, had named him in April 2018 when he From a demonstration after Fakhrizadeh assassination unveiled the Mossad intelligence sanctions if Tehran goes back to military or intelligence activities, overflight fees. service’s sensational seizure of a comply with the terms of the JCPoA, whether clandestine or not. Other Biden is a very different story from trove of documents pertaining which was seen by Barack Obama – forms of pressure are economic Trump. His approach is to deal first to Tehran’s clandestine nuclear Biden’s old boss – as a high point of sanctions, whose effect has been and foremost with Iran’s nuclear program. Netanyahu reacted to the his multilateral foreign and security magnified by the spectacularlyprogram and afterwards try to curb news of the killing by coyly saying policy. Trump’s 2018 abandonment damaging corona pandemic. And its regional ambitions and missile that “he can’t tell all” about it. Other of the agreement – viewed by him European countries have failed to program – which are of growing Israeli officials have not admitted as “the worst deal ever” – triggered find satisfactory compensation for of concern to Saudi Arabia, the their involvement, but neither – tensions with NATO allies UK, Trump’s unilateral re-imposition of UAE and Israel. The incoming crucially – have they denied it. France and Germany, as well as with sanctions. president has said the US could Experts have linked the assassination Russia and China. It has also become painfully clear that restore sanctions under the terms to last month’s reports of Trump’s Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran’s economic woes—especially of the deal should Iran resist further consideration of military action JCPoA was interpreted – at least the shrinking of its oil exports and its negotiations. against Iran. The New York Times by Tehran – as proving Supreme currency devaluation—are closely Tehran has countered by insisting quoted current and former US Leader Ali Khamenei’s argument connected to key geopolitical events. that it should be compensated for officials as saying the president had that the US cannot be trusted and Volatility in the exchange rate and the damage done to its economy by asked senior advisers whether he had that the nuclear issue is an American currency depreciation are alarming the US sanctions so far – which is options to target Iranian sites after pretext to pressure Iran and prepare signs of an unhealthy economy. highly unlikely. Another important UN inspectors reported a significant the groundwork for regime change. “The enormous depreciation of the domestic factor is that time is limited increase in the country’s stockpile of Four years of the Trump riyal against other currencies over to while Hassan Rouhani remains nuclear material. administration’s Iran policy the past decade illuminates the in office, as the next presidential Advisers responded by warning culminated – publicly at least – deterioration of Iran’s terms of trade elections are in June 2021. Hardliners, that a strike against the Islamic in the January 3 assassination of versus the rest of the world,” argued including Hossein Dehghan, backed Republic’s nuclear facilities could Qassem Soleimani, the commander two economists in a recent paper. by the IRGC and Khamenei, look set easily escalate into a broader conflict. of the Quds Force that runs regional No surprise that Trump’s defeat by to win. Whatever the truth of this report, by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Force Biden had a positive impact on Iran US officials are already said to be targeting a prominent figure in Iran’s operations. That was the visible when the riyal briefly appreciated by especially nervous about January nuclear programme, presumably and acknowledged peak of the another 10 percent. 3 2021– the first anniversary of the with a green light for Netanyahu, “maximum pressure” campaign, America’s regional diplomacy still Qassem Soleimani drone strike in the Twitterer-in-chief in the Oval but it was also followed by a wave seems focused on increasing Iran’s Baghdad. Biden is now on course for Office will make it far harder for his of mysterious sabotage, fires and economic pain. If the Saudi blockade the White House and Trump is on his successor, Joe Biden, to persuade accidents at nuclear installations of Qatar is about to end – as a result way out. The transition will be over Iran to return to the 2015 Joint across the country, including at of US and Kuwaiti intervention on January 20. But there is still no Comprehensive Plan of Action. Natanz, the underground uranium – then Tehran would face also guarantee that this hyper-sensitive The Democratic president-electenrichment plant. significant losses since it has received issue will not ignite a damaging has repeatedly pledged to lift US Still, this is not all about US or Israeli nearly $100m from Qatar Airways in regional blaze – sooner or later. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 8 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Opinion

coalition ofIraq’s attackers; including “Platoon” the Indeed, in the midst of a ruined or lost a family member to ISIS. It US, Kurdish Peshmerga, Iranian- city the SWAT commander who is reminds the viewers of the fact that James Denselow backed militias and of course the himself from Mosul, endeavours ISIS fighters were a largely domestic Iraqi military themselves. to put rubbish he finds in the bin. force and that in such an uncivil civil Whilst the film was made in When they come across an Iranian conflict, trust was determined by For far too long in Morocco it opens to drone footage commander a debate as to what base motivations such as revenge. the mainstreaming Western of the aftermath of the nine-month he is doing in an Iraqi city drags Yet the 6,000 or so ISIS fighters entertainment industry, filmslong battle. Rubble, rubble and the discussion all the way back to that held the city hostage would have been about the Middle East then more rubble is all that you can the times of Babylon. The key and shoot fleeing civilians, booby trap from the perspective of foreigners see across the horizon. In the film central components of the story are buildings and sexually abuse the not nationals of the countries when pinned down by enemy fire that of men fighting for each other wives of those Mosul residents who themselves. A potential major step the SWAT team reject calling in an and for their own city. One speaks couldn’t protect them. Unlike other to counter that trend came with the American airstrike because “they to the future and how they need to members of the Iraqi military who if release of “Mosul” last week, the first flatten everything because they have “more children as that brings captured by ISIS would be offered all-Arabic film to release on Netflix don’t have to rebuild anything”. our city back quicker”. the chance to convert and switch in the streaming service’s history. The landscape feels less urban and Whilst the Directors were American, sides, members of the SWAT team This should be celebrated in and more like an alien moonscape, it was produced by Iraqi filmmaker were supposedly executed on site, of itself but far more interesting but critically by putting Iraqis as Mohamed Al-Daradji. The film was such was their feared reputation is the story of the actual film. It the central heroes, gradually the based on a true story and dedicated amongst ISIS militants. tracks a group of elite Iraqi ‘SWAT’ city begins to take shape and you to members of the Nineveh SWAT If ‘Mosul’ proves popular with policemen on an undisclosed realise the terrible consequences of team themselves which is a nice Western audiences, and the reach mission towards the end of the war amongst people’s homes and touch. Combat scenes are intense of Netflix during a global pandemic battle to win Iraq’s second city from families. Shellshocked children although as they are happening at lockdown is an excellent platform, the clutches of ISIS. This moment in wonder towards the safer parts the tail end of the battle you feel that then who knows what it could do for history warrants far more attention of the cities wheeling the corpses the story of the main liberation of the war film genre in a region beset than it had at the time. It was of their parents. Unlike films the city, when mass carnage ensued, with it. Could Syria, almost ten reportedly the largest urban military portraying the US experience in the has still yet to be told. years into its own ‘Apocalypse Now’ operation since World War Two. An country, ‘Mosul’ immediately shows The film is based on a New Yorker pursuit of darkness, get a fictional entrenched opposition force that an interaction between the SWAT piece that explored how the key film that could do justice to the pain knew no limits to what tactics it and civilians that never could be criteria of recruitment to the SWAT that the country has gone through would resort too, faced an unusual replicated by a foreign army. team was having been wounded for instance?

From the Netflix movie (Mosul) The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 9 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Opinion When al-Assad “the caliph” talks the religion he wants when grows Arab civilization, not caring about was radical Islamist. Thus, do those up but what should be according the brainwashed by the regime during Rima Flihan to al-Assad that he definitely has to fact of the existence of other non- that time remember what he said follow the religion of his family or Arab ethnicities which have their own back then and what he is saying now? tribe. This completely contradicts languages, civilizations and political In this speech, al-Assad clarified the I was not very shocked the principle of freedom of belief in systems, and which have existed in identity of his regime in a way that by al-Assad’s speech in the Al- the international human rights law. the region much before Islam and leaves no room for doubt that this Osmaane Mosque to the Ministry of Al-Assad believes that secularism mixed later with other ethnicities regime is dictatorial, not secular and endowments, but it may have made only means freedom of religions, or they were related to a common based on centralism and chauvinism, me laugh a little bit because it was therefore, it does not mean separating “Semitic” origin of the many peoples does not respect human rights but full of intellectual, historical, social religion from the state but on the who inhabited the Arab region and he rather incites against anyone and scientific paradoxes and fallacies. contrary, he said that the religious the Levant including the Arameans, outside of the collectivist culture I was not surprised because I’ve institution in Syria is a support to the Arabs and others. Al-Assad did and does not respect the diverse already known that Bashar al-Assad army and part of the state. He also not care much about the fact of the cultures in the Syrian society. In his and his regime are basically against accused liberalism of being the cause existence of other ethnicities in Syria, speech, he incited against liberals, liberalism, secularism and human of moral decay in the world saying and this means according to what he atheists, secularists, homosexuals, rights, otherwise it would not have that it was the reason for promoting said that the Syriacs are Arabs and and freedom of belief. All these held up so far, Syria would not have and legalizing recreational drugs Assyrians are Arabs and all people indicate that he has no intention so been in this catastrophe, and he and same-sex marriage, hence he is in Syria are Arabs, even if they speak far to change any constant on which would not have committed all these against gay rights and considers their and write other languages, and even if this repressive regime has been massacres and violations against identity a part of the moral decay that history says something else. based since it has been founded. It human rights since the beginning he spoke about and linked it to the Bashar al-Assad said that those who is a regime that does not respect the of the uprising in Syria until now approval of same-sex marriage the came out of the mosques at the identity of the non-Arab the caliph if he had not had that mentality as caliph beginning of the revolution were not Syrian ethnicities, does not respect he showed it in that sanctimonious and this is also a violation against necessarily Islamist. He literally said secularism or liberalism, but rather sermon. the caliph human rights. He also confuses the that many of them were atheists, and it incites Muslims against them by However, I think that this sermon person’s sex with their gender. Al- I (the writer) add that they were from placing liberalism and secularism and has to be analysed for the deluded Assad also talked about the Arabism of all religions and beliefs, because the their intellectuals and supporters in people so far and for those who think Syria considering it a non-negotiable uprising in the beginning was popular the place of the enemy who aims to recycling him globally might provide issue and connected “Arabism with and included all communities of the destroy religion and spread moral protection for minorities and that he Islam” with language in part of his Syrian people, and there was no place decay, this what he said literally. is close to secularism which is the speech, then he contradicted what to gather except in mosques and all The funny thing that the regime propaganda on which his mass media he has said in another part saying attempts to get together outside them which brags about morals is the machine works. that language and identity are two failed because of the repression of the same regime which facilitates human Bashar al-Assad in his speech accused different things, especially when government security to any gathering trafficking by exploiting minors in liberalism of moral decay and aiming he attacked the pre-Islamic ancient once it begins and arresting everyone nightclubs owned by those who are to destroy societies, religions and Syriac identity of Syria saying that the in it and these are experiences I very loyal supporters in the suburbs being the cause of the war on Syria. Syrians used to speak Syriac but they witnessed myself in Damascus at of Damascus and elsewhere, it is the In his comments, he stated his real were Arabs and he criticized that idea least. For those who forgot, Bashar same regime which tortured and positions against a number of human harshly. He rejected the existence of al-Assad was promoting at that time raped many arrested women, it is the rights, for example, he is against any civilization in Syria except the that the uprising since the beginning same regime which impoverished promoting individualism which people and the caliph liberalism aims at. He only supports killed them, it is the same regime collectivism such as tribalism. It is which abused people and their known that society develops only property, and now its president when its people develop and values comes to talk about morals, beliefs of citizenship and civil liberties are and values, and here he accuses, in strengthened. Tribalism contradicts his sanctimonious sermon, liberalism our humanitarian identity and of promoting recreational drug our own individual identity which and everyone knows that what the enables us to mature intellectually, regime does inside and outside Syria humanly and cognitively, and it even perfectly matches with the ideology contradicts citizenship. Al-Assad of the extremist religious ideologies considered liberalism an enemy of which say about liberalism the the society providing examples about same thing and stand against civil this saying that liberalism believes liberties, human rights, democracy that a child has the right to choose the and secularism and reject separating caliph Bashar Al Assad religion from the state The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 10 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Opinion Middle East Governance in the Post Pandemic Era

Dalia Ziada

It is written in history that the year 2020, the year of the coronavirus pandemic, was one of the most difficult years in human’s history, after the black plague in the Middle Ages and world wars in the 20th century. Over the past millennium, the human genius challenged several global crises and turned them into opportunities. Middle East This pandemic is not different. Several positive changes on various aspects of life are already being generated out of humans’ attempts Egyptian men wearing face masks to survive the fatal microscopic virus. This article lists only a few ways, in active in fulfilling the vacuum in healthcare, education, and housing) At that moment, the armed forces which the COVID-19 crisis positively government provided services, have always been viewed as internal and its affiliated food and medical changed the long-standing dynamics rather than complaining or issues that each country should work factories intervened to provide a of political power, governance and government failure of just waiting to reform on its own. But, thanks ‘parallel arrangement’ ready to satisfy socio-political interactions in the for the government to reform its to the pandemic, economic and people’s needs, and, thus, forced the countries of the Middle East and bureaus. Middle East social rights are now becoming a private sector to cooperate. Middle North Africa (MENA) region. Second: Civil society organizations trans-national tans-border issue that East To limit the spread of the Coronavirus, are becoming more engaged with countries can cooperate and work on Fifth: The Coronavirus pandemic each country had to close its borders grass-roots citizens on issues that are together. As we have seen for example helped with upgrading government’s and isolate itself from the rest of the immediately relevant to improving in the exchange of medical supplies capacity in terms with using world, while domestically forcing the quality of their lives, like economic and medical technology between information technology. The a curfew or a complete lockdown. reform and health care. Before, civil countries, in the past few months. pandemic accelerated the pace of Accordingly, every government, in society organizations, especially in Fourth: The pandemic redefinedtechnological transformation of every country, found itself forced to Arab Spring countries, were mostly the role of the military within the public services and educational face the crisis alone in a tough battle focused on political rights and civil civil government. It renewed the institutions. In Egypt, for example, to rescue peoples’ lives, while also freedoms. As a result, they were old debate on the “non-traditional we witnessed a technological preserving a stable economy and an seen by governments as an upsetting role” (the political and economic revolution in both education and unwavering system of governance. groups of covert politicians, and by role) of the armed forces, within the judicial sectors. Also, the information Ironically, the illiberal and non- grass-roots citizens as the detached civil state. For long, the economic technology tools were heavily used democratic governments were elite. The newly expanding role of autonomy of the armed forces, by candidates for parliamentary the ones that performed better in the civil society, after the pandemic, in Egypt for example, has been elections to manage their electoral this battle. Perhaps, because these helped change this image. At least, criticized for its potential negative campaigns and reach out to their governments have stronger control it put civil society organizations influence on market competition and potential voters. This indirectly on private sector businesses and under a new light in the eyes of the the opportunities provided to the participated in limiting the corrupt individual citizens and most of government, which started to see private sector to grow through open practices that usually take place the wealth of the country is under them as essential partners, rather than market economy. But, the pandemic during pre-election public gatherings government’s control. trouble-making group of activists. put this argument to test. Since the to influence the voters. However, in the process of Third: The pandemic is redefining the beginning of the Coronavirus crisis, in The aforementioned few observations governments combating the virus, way MENA citizens and governments Egypt, for example, the private sector are a proof that the Coronavirus the relationship between the citizen are approaching the conversation on hesitated to aid the government in pandemic has positively changed the and the state, in MENA countries, human rights. Since the Arab Spring managing the crisis. Rather, private MENA region, and the whole world, has been redefined, in a way that may revolutions, erupted in 2010, the sector leaders deliberately abused for good, at least in governance positively affect the political future of focus has always been on political the state of panic among the people sector and on the level of state-citizen the MENA region, if not the whole and civil rights as trans-national and attempted to increase their relationship. Keeping and building world. Here is how: human rights issues. In contrast, profits by practicing monopoly over on these positive transformations is First: Citizens are becoming more economic and social rights (such as basic food and medical commodities. our next challenge. Middle East. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 11 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Opinion Sulaymaniyah Demonstrations

The Violence Backgroundongoing acts of sabotage in Sulaimaniyah and promoting them by PMF media, coincided with Shiyar khaleal recent terrorist attacks by Iranian militias against the US-coalition base in Erbil airport, attacking the headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Perhaps some Iraqi parties and militias Baghdad, and the demonstrations came to blind affiliated with Iran do not want Erbil to recover from the Kurdish citizen in the region. its economic crisis, sign new “peace” agreements Returning to the issue of paying salaries, we with Baghdad, and create a national partnership must mention that there is an actual salary crisis to manage the crisis that Iraq is going through in in Kurdistan Region, but neither the Kurdish general. Therefore, they only thing they could do government nor the Kurdistan Democratic Party is to announce their support for the subversive is considered responsible for this alone, as the demonstrations that took place in Sulaymaniyah Region has repeatedly declared its cooperation city in the Kurdistan region adjacent to the Iranian and willingness to negotiate with the central border under the pretext of non-payment of government to resolve this dilemma. However, salaries. the votes of pro-Iranian militias and political Those peaceful demonstrations under the pretext movements in Parliament were enough to fail all of non-payment of salaries soon turned into acts of the previous endeavours. sabotage by burning governmental headquarters Kurdistan Government considered peaceful and stealing their contents, in conjunction with demonstration a legitimate right for the citizens, clashes with the security forces and creating chaos and this was evident in the statement of Masrour in some villages in Sulaymaniyah. Barzani, the prime minister of Kurdistan The demonstrations were accompanied by Region, when he confirmed on Monday that the burning headquarters for the traffic, police and difficult conditions in the Region are out of his the governorate. PMF satellite channels and security, military and administrative conditions government’s control warning the citizens against websites did massive media promotion about the in Sinjar to restore security and stability to the attempts by few to use people’s livelihood for their demonstrations and the teenage demonstrators disputed district between Baghdad and Erbil. personal interests, and that his government is were pushed to inflame the situation and transform The deal included many administrative, security sparing no effort to overcome the difficult financial peaceful demonstrations into acts of sabotage. and service items. The administration is agreed conditions that the Region, Iraq and the world are These events coincided with Kurdistanon with the Kurdistan region and Nineveh going through. Stating that it -the government- government’s endeavour to distribute part of the Governorate taking into account the district continues negotiations with the Federal salaries from its share to the employees, and with people’s demands. Security is within the authority Government to obtain the rights and financial the ongoing negotiations with Baghdad to pay the of the federal government in coordination with entitlements for the Region which have not salaries to its employees, the thing that indicates the Kurdistan region government. The most been sent yet unfortunately. Despite the fact that that creating these acts of sabotage is a clear important item of the agreement is concerned with Kurdistan Government has shown full flexibility message to fail all understanding attempts to reach the security arrangements which assign security to reach an agreement under the constitution, an agreement with Baghdad. to the local police under the supervision of the calling on the political actors in the Region to be There is no doubt that it is not strange for the Iraqi National Intelligence Service in coordination cooperating to overcome this difficult situation, Kurdistan region the sabotage attempts that the with the Kurdistan region government. As well, and to protect peace and the entity of Kurdistan neighbouring countries and some militias and It includes removing the official & non-official Region; which is everyone’s duty. He pointed out Iraqi parties have been trying to make since 2014, armed groups from the district, the thing that that Kurdistan Government undoubtedly feels despite Kurdistan’s constant endeavour to enhance might infuriate the militias. the heavy burden and the citizens’ difficult life, understanding with Baghdad. The failed political All of this poses a threat to the Popular Mobilization thanks their steadfastness, and sees peaceful and class in Baghdad realized that Erbil’s economic, Militias and the cadres of the Turkish Kurdistan civilized demonstration a legitimate right for the political and military prosperity will negatively Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sinjar, which preferred citizens within the law. affect it and expose most of its corruption and to join the PMF brigades over joining the federal From all this, we see that Iran and its Iraqi militias attempts to create chaos in the country for known government or the Peshmerga forces. The only seek to prevent Kurdistan’s globally-known regional actors. thing they could do is to look for ways to obstruct progress, prosperity and stability, and transform Those attempts were obvious years ago through the historic agreement. Iran has been seeking since it into divided states, thus failing Erbil’s successful imposing an embargo on the Kurdistan Region and 1996 to divide the Kurdistan Region, especially experience and the ongoing negotiations between pushing the political classes into chaos and political since there is an air embargo on Iran’s flights Kurdistan and Baghdad, Sinjar deal and the new conflict after Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, the Iraqi Prime according to a UN Resolution 688 in 1992, so it governmental parliamentary negotiations. When Minister, and Nechirvan Barzani, the Kurdistan intends to take revenge through causing chaos and we take a closer look at the geography of the regions Region’s president, agreed to implement the Sinjar disturbing security. that carried out the sabotage in Sulaymaniyah, deal which stipulated the normalization of the Here, we must remind the reader that these Iran’s role will be crystal clear. The Levant | Issue 19 - January 2021 12 www.THELEVANTNEWS.com Opinion Does Erdogan plan to launch another

the offensiveSyrian mercenaries started implementon it Kurds?and to protect the shelling villages across Ain Issa Kurdish-controlled areas from Zara Saleh north Raqqa. Added to that, Turkey Turkish attacks, and there is a has been created a new military base Russian military presence in Ain Issa in that area close to the M4 highway. as well. The Russian attitude seems While the Syrian Besides, the Turkish President has to be in favor of Erdogan’s plan if it is Democratic Forces were thrashing approved a bill from the Turkish not playing a “game”. Following the ISIS and destroying its Caliphate, parliament to extend the army’s Nagorno-Karabakh deal between Erdogan started to set up a new mission to cross the borders with Putin and Erdogan, there is also “caliphate” in north Syria after Syria and Iraq. an opportunity for another deal Turkish army’s occupation with A glance at Turkey’s expected to on the ground in Syrian territories support of the Syrian jihadist rebels plan and the military steps that as it has happened before between that so-called the “Syrian National have been done such as digging both countries when Russia sold the Army”. Simultaneously, the Turkish trenches, tunnels, and watchtowers. Kurdish region of Afrin in exchange President Recep Tayyip Erdogan It emerges that the Turkish army for Eastern Ghouta. Now, there is a memory, Erdogan’s plan cannot has been threatening, as usual, to is trying to take control under the concern that Russia might play such be approved even by Trump’s attack the Kurds and he will “not strategic M4 highway, north Ain a game plan in Idlib as well and to administration due to the American allow establishing a terrorist state Issa, and then to occupy the town. close eyes on Turkey’s military plan decision to reject any more Turkish along Turkey’s borders”. In fact, this plan will allow Turkey in north Ain Issa. attacks in the SDF-controlled In recent few weeks, once again, to take more control in northeast Arguably, Turkey and Russia’s areas. Whereas, the new-elected President Erdogan has threatened to Syria and to cut the connection “last minutes” game is attempting president Joe Biden attitude is launch a new offensive in Kurdish- between the SDF-controlled area to benefit from Trump’s last two clear towards Erdogan ” America controlled areas. Following the and other parts of Syria such as the months in the office. In addition, is back”, and his team has strongly increased populist rhetoric, for strategic city of Aleppo. Erdogan is trying to have a plan to declared the importance of the US example, and the rhetoric of hatred On the other hand, Russia is take advantage of the presidential presence in Syria and to support against the Kurds by the Turkish considered as guarantors of the transition period in America. their trustworthy ally the Syrian president, the Turkish army with Turkey-Russia Accord that to However, relying on his short Democratic Forces.

Caricature

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