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Document 558789.Pdf INTEGRATED AND COLLABORATIVE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODELLING FOR SUSTAINABLE RAZOR CLAM MANAGEMENT AT DON HOI LORD RAMSAR SITE, THAILAND Mr. Kobchai Worrapimphong A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Program in Agricultural Technology Faculty of Science Chulalongkorn University Academic Year 2010 Copyright of Chulalongkorn University การสรางแบบจําลองความรวมม ือเชิงบูรณาการดานนิเวศวิทยา เศรษฐกิจและสังคม เพื่อการจัดการ หอยหลอดอยางยงยั่ ืนทพี่ ื้นที่ชุมน้ําที่มีความสําคัญระหวางประเทศดอนหอยหลอด ประเทศไทย นายกอบชยั วรพิมพงษ วิทยานิพนธนี้เปนสวนหนึ่งของการศึกษาตามหลักสูตรปริญญาวิทยาศาสตรดุษฎีบัณฑิต สาขาวิชาเทคโนโลยีการเกษตร คณะวิทยาศาสตร จุฬาลงกรณมหาวิทยาลยั ปการศึกษา 2553 ลิขสิทธิ์ของจุฬาลงกรณมหาวิทยาลัย Thesis Title INTEGRATED AND COLLABORATIVE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODELLING FOR SUSTAINABLE RAZOR CLAM MANAGEMENT AT DON HOI LORD RAMSAR SITE, THAILAND By Mr. Kobchai Worrapimphong Field of Study Agricultural Technology Thesis Advisor Associate Professor Nantana Gajaseni, Ph.D. Thesis Co-Advisor Christophe Le Page, Ph.D. Accepted by the Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Doctoral Degree …………………………………Dean of the Faculty of Science (Professor Supot Hannongbua, Dr.rer.nat.) THESIS COMMITTEE ………………………………………….…….. Chairman (Associate Professor Kumthorn Thirakhupt, Ph.D.) ………………………………………….…….. Thesis Advisor (Associate Professor Nantana Gajaseni, Ph.D.) ……………………………………..……...….. Thesis Co-Advisor (Christophe Le Page, Ph.D.) ……………………………………….……….. Examiner (Assistant Professor Art-Ong Pradatsundarasar, Ph.D.) ……………………………………….……….. Examiner (Associate Professor Charoen Nitithamyong, Ph.D.) …………………………………………….….. External Examiner (Guy Trébuil, Ph.D.) …………………………………………….….. External Examiner (Associate Professor Apisak Popan, Ph.D.) iv กอบชัย วรพิมพงษ: การสรางแบบจําลองความรวมมือเชิงบูรณาการดานนิเวศวิทยา เศรษฐกิจและสังคม เพื่อการจัดการหอยหลอดอยางยั่งยืนที่พื้นที่ชุมน้ําที่มีความสําคัญระหวางประเทศดอนหอยหลอด ประเทศไทย (INTEGRATED AND COLLABORATIVE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODELLING FOR SUSTAINABLE RAZOR CLAM MANAGEMENT AT DON HOI LORD RAMSAR SITE, THAILAND ) อ. ที่ปรึกษาวิทยานิพนธหลัก: รองศาสตราจารย ดร. นันทนา คชเสนี, อ. ที่ปรึกษาวิทยานิพนธรวม: Christophe Le Page, Ph.D., 255หนา. การศึกษาครั้งนี้มีจุดประสงคเพื่อหาวิธีการการจัดการทรัพยากรหอยหลอดอยางยั่งยืน โดยการใชแบบจําลองเพื่อนคู เคียง (ComMod) ซึ่งประกอบดวย 2 สวนหลักคือ แบบจําลองพหุภาคี (ABM) และการประชุมเชงปฏิ บิ ตั การเพิ อการจื่ าลองํ สถานการณรวมกัน (Participatory Simulation Workshop) เพื่อการเขาถึงสวนหลักของแบบจําลองเพื่อนคูเคียง การศึกษา จึงแบงออกเปน 3 สวน ดังนี้ 1) การศึกษาประชากรของหอยหลอด และคาปจจัยสิ่งแวดลอมบางประการ โดยเฉพาะดิน ตะกอนและปริมาณอินทรียคารบอนแขวนลอยในน้ํา (POC) ชวงมิถุนายน 2551-พฤษภาคม 2552; 2) การศึกษาระบบ เศรษฐสังคมของการประมงหอยหลอด เพื่อเขาใจพฤติกรรมการจับหอยหลอดของชาวประมง และกลไกทางการตลาดของ หอยหลอด; 3) การพัฒนาแบบจําลองพหุภาคีจากขอมูลภาคสนาม และการทดสอบสถานการณสมมุติในการจัดการหอย หลอด หลังจากนั้นนําแบบจําลองพหุภาคีและผลการทดสอบ ไปใชในการประชุมเชิงปฏิบัติการเพื่อการจําลอง สถานการณรวมกันเพื่อแลกเปลี่ยนและอภิปรายถึงแนวทางการจัดการที่เหมาะสม ผลการศึกษาพบวา สถานภาพของ ประชากรหอยหลอดอยูในขั้นวิกฤตเนื่องจากความหนาแนนเฉลี่ยของหอยหลอดในการศึกษามีเพียง 0.51±0.30 ตัว/ตร.ม. ซึ่งเปนความหนาแนนนอยที่สุดตั้งแตมีการศึกษาในป 2524 การวิเคราะหความสัมพันธทางสถิติพบวา ความหนาแนน ของหอยหลอดมีความสัมพันธเชิงลบกับปริมาณอินทรียวัตถุในดินและตะกอนแขวนลอยในน้ํา (p<0.05) แตไมพบ ความสัมพันธกับ POC ในสวนของกลไกทางการตลาดของหอยหลอดไดรับการผลักดันโดยพอคาคนกลางที่รับซื้อหอย หลอดทั้งหมดจากชาวประมง และกระจายเขาสูตลาดในเขตจังหวัดสมุทรสงครามและจังหวัดใกลเคียง ปจจัยที่สงผลตอ การขึ้นลงราคาของหอยหลอดขึ้นอยูกับปริมาณหอยหลอดที่พอคาคนกลางกักตุนไว และความตองการของตลาด ซึ่งจะ เพิ่มขึ้นในชวงวันหยุดราชการ และปดภาคการศึกษา การตัดสินใจจับหอยหลอดของชาวประมงมี 2 ปจจัยที่สงผล คือ ความหนาแนนของหอยหลอด และราคาขายหอยหลอด ในการพัฒนาแบบจําลองพหุภาคีมีการเพิ่ม i-stage distribution ใน แบบจําลอง และทําการปรับแตง (calibration) จนแบบจําลองแสดงผลไดสอดคลองกับความเปนจริง การทดสอบ สถานการณสมมุติในการจัดการทรัพยากรหอยหลอดพบวา การหมุนเวียนพื้นที่บางสวนเพื่อหามหยอดหอยหลอดรวมกับ ระบบโควตา เปนแนวทางการจัดการที่ดีที่สุดตอประชากรหอยหลอด จากนั้นมีการเพิ่มแผนที่การหยอดหอยหลอดลงไป ในแบบจําลอง เพื่อใชแบบจําลองเปนสื่อกลางในการอภิปรายในการประชุมเชิงปฏิบัติการเพื่อจําลองสถานการณรวมกัน กับผูมีสวนเกี่ยวของในพื้นที่ดอนหอยหลอด ผูมีสวนเกี่ยวของไดยอมรับความเสมือนจริงของแบบจําลองพหุภาคี และ บงชี้การใชประโยชนของแบบจําลองเพื่อใหการศึกษาแกเยาวชนในพื้นที่ดอนหอยหลอดและประชาชนที่สนใจ แบบจําลองเพื่อนคูเคียงเพื่อการอนุรักษหอยหลอดนี้สามารถชวยเพิ่มพูนประสบการณผูมีสวนไดเสียในพื้นที่ผานการ แลกเปลี่ยนและทํางานรวมกันในพื้นที่ศึกษา ทําใหมีการรวมกลุมกันของชาวประมงและผูมีสวนไดเสียอื่น ในการอนรุ กษั หอยหลอดดวยการกําหนดเขตพื้นที่บางสวนบนสันดอนทรายตั้งแตเดือนตุลาคม 2552 เปนพื้นที่หามจับหอยหลอด สาขาวิชา เทคโนโลยีการเกษตร ลายมือชื่อนิสิต ปการศึกษา 2553 ลายมอชื ื่อ อ.ทปรี่ ึกษาวิทยานพนธิ หล ัก............................................ ลายมอชื ื่อ อ.ทปรี่ ึกษาวิทยานพนธิ รวม ............................................. v # # 4873876323 : MAJOR AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY KEYWORDS : COMPANION MODELLING / RAROR CLAM / POPULATION DYNAMICS / DON HOI LORD / RAMSAR SITE KOBCHAI WORRAPIMPHONG : INTEGRATED AND COLLABORATIVE ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODELLING FOR SUSTAINABLE RAZOR CLAM MANAGEMENT AT DON HOI LORD RAMSAR SITE, THAILAND . THESIS ADVISOR : ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR NANTANA GAJASENI, Ph.D., THESIS CO-ADVISOR : CHRISTOPHE LE PAGE, Ph.D., 255 pp. Don Hoi Lord wetland located near Mae Klong river mouth in the area of Samut Songkhram province, upper the Gulf of Thailand. The wetland was registered as the 1099th Ramsar site. Razor clam (Solen spp.) is an important species in the sandbars which are a part of this wetland. Fisherman has harvested razor clam for generating income more than 2 generations. Due to the previous studies, razor clam population has decreased through the time. The objective of this study aims to explore possible sustainable management policies for Don Hoi Lord by using Companion Modelling approach (ComMod). The approach mainly consists of Agent-based simulation model (ABM) and participatory simulation workshop with stakeholders involvement. To achieve the aim of the study, there are 3 parts including: 1) ecological study of razor clam population and its environmental factors especially sediment and particulate organic carbon (POC) between June 2008 – May 2009; 2) socio-economic study to understand fisherman harvesting behavior and razor clam market mechanism; and 3) ABM development from field study finding and test the management scenarios with the ABM. Moreover, the ABM was used in participatory simulation workshop to validate the ABM and to exchange and discuss on razor clam sustainable management.The results from ecological study showed that razor clam population was in crisis due to the decreasing of population. Mean density of razor clam was 0.51±0.30 clam/m2 which has been the lowest record among previous scientific studies since 1982. In addition, razor clam density had negative correlation with %organic matter in soil sediment and particulate sediment in water column (p < 0.05) but it was not correlated with POC. Razor clam market is being driven by a trader who buys all razor clam from a fisherman and processed razor clam as clam meat before distributing to market. The trader set razor clam buying price from fisherman independently based on their razor clam stock and a current market demand. Razor clam demand usually was increased during weekend and, presently the trader distributing processed razor clam to a restaurant and a merchant in fresh market. Regarding fisherman, there were 2 factors affected fisherman’s decision to harvest razor clam, firstly the density of razor clam and secondly razor clam price. Due to the low razor clam density, fisherman had to harvest on other species instead of razor clam but razor clam is still the first priority. The ABM development was done by added i-stage distribution model and re-calibrated until the simulation model represented system behavior. Then, the management scenarios were tested with the ABM and it was found that reserved zoning accompany with quota system was the best scenario for sustaining razor clam population. Next, spatial interface of the ABM was upgraded based on socio-economic finding and the upgraded ABM was used in participatory simulation workshop with stakeholders. The workshop can be a forum for discussion among stakeholders by using ABM as mediator and stakeholders in the workshop which could share their representations for collective agreement to achieve the goal. Finally, the whole process of ComMod at Don Hoi Lord by communicating and co- working between researcher and stakeholders in the field study could help them instituted the group to working on sustainable management by implementing a reserved or forbidden zone on the sandbar at Don Hoi Lord. Field of Study : Agricultural Technology Student’s Signature Academic Year : 2010………………. Advisor’s Signature f Co-Advisor’s Signature vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deeply gratitude to my advisor, Associate Professor Dr. Nantana Gajaseni, for her excellent advice, comment, suggestion and encouragement during my study. Without her kindness, this study could not be accomplished. I am deeply indebted to my co-advisor Dr. Christophe Le Page who gave me great help in Companion Modelling and his dedication on agent-based simulation model construction including participatory
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