Integrating Embodied Emissions Into Climate Change Mitigation Policy
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Integrating embodied emissions into climate change mitigation policy Kate Amy Scott Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds Sustainability Research Institute School of Earth and Environment February 2016 - ii - The candidate confirms that the work submitted is her own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given within the thesis where reference has been made to the work of others. Chapter 2 is a published paper: SCOTT, K. & BARRETT, J. 2015. An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets. Environmental Science & Policy, 52, 150-157. I was responsible for research design, analysis and writing. John Barrett provided supervision and reviewed the paper. Chapter 3 is a published paper: SCOTT K., DALY H., BARRETT J., STRACHAN N. (2015) National climate policy implications of mitigating embodied energy system emissions, accepted on 26.1.16 in Climatic Change. The paper was based on integrating two modelling approaches in collaboration with Hannah Daly and Neil Strachan at University College London (UCL). I undertook the analysis for one of the models (MRIO analysis) and Hannah was responsible for the analysis using the UK TIMES model. UCL lead on a preliminary paper describing the method and I lead a paper on the policy implications. I was responsible for the majority of the paper writing as well as framing the research questions. UCL co-authors were responsible for contributing text related to the methodology underlying the UK TIMES model. All co-authors offered advice and reviewed the paper. Chapter 4 is a paper under review: SCOTT K., ROELICH K., OWEN A., BARRETT J. (2015) Addressing globally traded emissions through domestic consumption policies, under review in Environmental Research Letters. I took the lead on the paper and was responsible for the majority of the research framing, analysis and writing. The underlying input-output data was Provided by Anne Owen. Katy Roelich provided text for the policy discussion that I edited and John Barrett provided comments and discussion on the objectives of the paper. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. © 2016 The University of Leeds and Kate Amy Scott - iii - Acknowledgements Thank you to my primary supervisor John Barrett whose knowledge and insight into the vast area of climate mitigation I have extremely benefitted from. He has created a bright, encouraging and motivating research environment and has been a great support at every stage of my PhD. Thanks to my co-supervisor Julia Steinberger who provides constructive critical feedback that the PhD has undoubtedly benefitted from, and she encourages me to further develop my research career. I also want to thank Alice Bows-Larkin at Manchester University as this is where I originally started my PhD. She really took the time and attention to review and discuss everything I wrote and has continued to be encouraging since my move to Leeds University. I was once told it takes a year to become familiar with a new complex model and so the collaboration with UCL to bring together our two modelling disciplines has made it possible to do a more thorough analysis in the time of the PhD. I think collaborations really expand your knowledge as a researcher and developing the model with Hannah Daly and Neil Strachan has definitely improved mine. My research group at Leeds university also has a great mix of skills and expertise and I have been able to discuss the very technical details of input-output models with Anne Owen and alternatively about climate change governance and policies with Katy Roelich. I always find our research group an open, approachable and knowledgeable team and I look forward to continue working with them. I have found the Sustainability Research Institute to be a very enabling place to work. The research is very interdisciplinary and varied, the PhDs welcomed me from the start, the support staff have always been helpful and accommodating, the research groups provide a great foundation to share information and I have really enjoyed my time here. Last but not least I must thank my family and friends who despite asking when I’m going to get a ‘real’ job make it easy to distract myself from my work and enjoy my life outside of it! A special thank you to Luis and my gran for their encouragement. - iv - Abstract International greenhouse gas emissions are typically monitored and regulated from a production perspective. This accounts for emissions produced directly by industries within a country’s territory. International climate regulation centres around decarbonisation, negative emissions technologies and energy efficiency, none of which are aligned in practice with a two degree future. Given the remaining emissions gap between limiting temperature rise to two degrees (or lower) and existing climate mitigation pledges, mitigation policies must be constantly reviewed. Materials act as a carrier of industrial energy that allows, through trade, the transfer of emissions between producers and consumers. Despite continual increases in aggregate consumption, industrialised countries have managed to stabilise their production emissions, partially from increasing imports from developing countries. For example, 20% of emissions growth in countries without climate targets under the Kyoto Protocol can be attributed to products exported for final consumption in countries with climate targets, who are not assigned any responsibility for reducing them. However international policies continue to prioritise production-related measures that reduce the carbon intensity of energy supply or reduce direct energy consumption. Reducing absolute demand for materials and products, which embody emissions, is absent from national climate policy packages in high-consuming developed countries. In this context, ‘sufficiency’ is seen as politically unpopular and often framed by companies and governments as denying consumers’ basic rights or by describing consumers unwilling to change their behaviours. Yet evidence suggests consumption patterns are instead heavily influenced by ingrained social practices, locked in by powerful marketing corporations. I investigate how the implementation of embodied emissions would redefine existing climate targets and policies, and explore further opportunities for resource consumption policies in climate mitigation. This is within the context of existing UK climate targets, however I also argue that the targets need to be reframed as they, in themselves, are not aligned with the international climate objective of preventing two degrees or lower temperature rise. I examine how the integration of embodied emissions would alter the UK’s 2050 climate target and mitigation policies, how the UK’s energy supply system might adapt when mitigating for emissions embodied in fuels and energy technologies, and the additional emissions scope of extending energy efficiency policies to include emissions embodied in resource use in the EU. I conclude that resource consumption policies increase the policy portfolio of energy dominant mitigation strategies and can contribute to bridging the remaining emissions gap. However, the tools and targets used to devise this evidence base are limited, and need further validation. I propose complementing mandatory production emissions accounting with mandatory consumption-based accounts. Their use in policy would ensure actions in one country do not result in a shift in production impacts to another and increases the policies available to meeting climate targets, particularly in combination with resource efficiency policies. In the discussion I - v - make the case that the foundation of such a framework already exists and outline possible steps for implementation. - vi - Table of Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ................................................................................................................. x Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... xi 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 A consumption perspective of climate mitigation ............................................... 1 1.1.1 Target setting and climate governance ...................................................... 2 1.1.1.1 Carbon budgets and mitigation pathways .................................. 2 1.1.1.2 Climate governance .................................................................... 4 1.1.1.3 Global cooperation...................................................................... 7 1.1.2 Analysis of emissions