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Innovations for Sustainability Pathways to an Efficient and Sufficient Post-Pandemic Future Innovations for Sustainability Pathways to an efficient and sufficient post-pandemic future 3rd Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an independent, international research institute with National Member Organizations in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. Through its research programs and initiatives, the institute conducts policy-oriented research into issues that are too large or complex to be solved by a single country or academic discipline. This includes pressing concerns that affects the future of all of humanity, such as climate change, energy security, population aging, and sustainable development. The results of IIASA research and the expertise of its researchers are made available to policymakers in countries around the world to help them produce effective, science-based policies that will enable them to face these challenges. www.twi2050.org This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. For any commercial use please contact [email protected] Figures by the TWI2050 consortium are licensed under CC-BY-NC 4.0. For all other figures see individual source details. RecommendedFirst published in citation July 2020: Innovations for Sustainability. Pathways to an efficient and post-pandemic future. TWI2050 - The World in 2050 (2020). Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. www.twi2050.org Available at: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16533/ ISBN 10: 3-7045-0157-3 ISBN 13: 978-3-7045-0157-8 EAN: 9783704501578 DOI: 10.22022/TNT/07-2020.16533 The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. The views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, its National Member Organizations, or any other organizations supporting the work. The terms ‘country’ and ’economy’ as used in this Report also refer, as appropriate, to territories or areas; the designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the authors or their organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. TWI2050 The World in 2050 Innovations for Sustainability Pathways to an efficient and sufficient post-pandemic future rd 3 Report prepared by The World in 2050 initiative Authors Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Arnulf Grubler, Julia Leininger, Caroline Zimm, Geoff Clarke, Kristie Ebi, Dirk Messner, Johan Rockstrom, Sander van der Leeuw, Charlie Wilson, Eric Zusman, Jeffrey Sachs, Ana Paula Aguiar, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Doug Arent, Tateo Arimoto, Avit K. Bhowmik, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Anita Breuer, Henrik Carlsen, Franklin Carrero-Martínez, Katerina Ciampi Stancova, Ilan Chabay, Chia-Wei Chao, William E. Colglazier, David Collste, Luis Comolli, Kuei-Tien Chou, Paulo Gadelha, Luiz Augusto Galvao, Banning Garret, Ariel Hernandez, Michiko Iizuka, Naoto Kanehira, Elmar Kriegler, Miho Kamei, JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Monika Matusiak, Peter Messerli, Jerry Miller, Joel Millward-Hopkins, Raya Muttarak, Roy Ngerng, Michael Obersteiner, Yannick Oswald, Kazuhito Oyamada, Shonali Pachauri, Romulo Paes de Sousa, Alesandro Rainoldi, Narasimha Rao, Keywan Riahi, Alexander Roehrl, Yamina Saheb, Joern Schmidt, Guido Schmidt-Traub, Rodrigo Guerino Stabeli, Julia Steinberger, Uno Svedin, Izumi Suzuki, Klaus Tilmes, Farooq Ullah, Detlef van Vuuren, Martin Visbeck, Christopher Wingens, Hirotaka Yamada Foreword Foreword Innovation has been the foundation of human and societal development since the dawn of civilization. It has resulted in enormous benefits for human wellbeing while at the same time is has brought the world to a critical crossroads where further unconstrained development risks societal and environmental collapse. The current rate and direction of innovation is insufficient to achieve the United Nation’s (UN) ambitious goals for an inclusive sustainable future for all, in part because of a relatively narrow focus on technology innovation without also addressing societal, institutional, and cultural innovation. We need to rebalance so that all dimensions of innovation and invention are promoted simultaneously, including addressing inequities. We also need to develop more proactive efforts to promote diffusion and learning, and to address barriers, constraints, and unintended consequences of innovations. We live in interesting times. They are times of great dangers and uncertainty for humanity and the planet, but times of unprecedented opportunities for directing development toward a just, resilient, and sustainable future. The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is disrupting the status quo, providing an opportunity to create sustainable societies with higher levels of wellbeing for all and mitigating environmental impacts at all scales. Properly directed, the stimulus packages underway to restart economies can ignite and leverage effects toward sustainability. The risk is that they may promote resurrection of the ‘old normal,’ going back to business-as-usual, rather than a transformation toward sustainability. This report, which focuses on innovation, is the third by The World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative that was established by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and other partners to provide scientific foundations for the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This report is based on the voluntary and collaborative effort of more than 60 authors and contributors from about 20 institutions globally, who met virtually to develop science-based strategies and pathways toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Presentations of the TWI2050 approach and work have been made at many international conferences such as the United Nations Science, Technology and Innovation Forums and the United Nations High-level Political Forums. Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals In 2018, the first report by TWI2050 on identified Six Exemplary Transformations needed to achieve the SDGs and long-term sustainability to 2050 and beyond: i) Human capacity, demography and health; ii) Consumption and production; iii) Decarbonization and energy, iv) Food, biosphere and Thewater; Digital v) Smart Revolution cities; andand vi)Sustainable Digital Revolution. Development: Opportunities and Challenges, The focus of the second report, launched in 2019, was the Sixth Transformation. Although it could arguably become the single greatest enabler of sustainable development, it has, in the past, helped create many negative externalities like transgression of planetary boundaries. The Digital Revolution provides entirely new and enhanced capacities and thus serves as a major force in shaping both the systemic context of transformative change and of future solutions; at the same time it potentially carries strong societal disruptive power if not handled with caution, care, and innovativeness.Innovations for Sustainability: Pathways to an efficient and sufficient post-pandemic future, This third report, assesses all the positive potential benefits innovation brings to sustainable development for all, while also highlighting the potential negative impacts and challenges going forward. The report outlines strategies to harness innovation for sustainability by focusing on efficiency and sufficiency in providing services to people, with a particular focus on consumption and production. It concludes with the related governance challenges and policy implications. Completion of this report has involved voluntary contributions from many colleagues around the world. Special thanks and gratitude go to all contributing institutions that provided personal and institutional support throughout. We are especially grateful for the contribution and support of the IIASA team who have iii provided substantial in-kind support and the vision needed to conduct an initiative of this magnitude. Special thanks go to the Chapter lead authors Geoff Clarke, Kris Ebi, Arnulf Grubler, Julia Leininger, and Sander van der Leeuw, and all authors and contributors without whose knowledge and dedication this report would not have been possible and who contributed despite the challenging circumstances. The publication of this report in July 2020 and its launch during the United Nations High-level Political Forum is timely. TWI2050 outlines ten key messages on the linkages between innovation, efficiency and sufficiency, and the sustainability transformations. Despite the magnitude of the challenge and the current unsustainable direction of development, additionally impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the transformation to a sustainable future is achievable—we have the knowledge, means, and capacity. However, at this point in time, with only 10 years until 2030, there is a general lack of political will within many governments across the globe to mobilize the necessary resources and make the required policy and structural
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