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'Bridging' Human Needs and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction: The ’Bridging’ human needs and carbon dioxide emissions reduction : the infrastructure dynamics at the core of the climate-development interplay Vivien Fisch-Romito To cite this version: Vivien Fisch-Romito. ’Bridging’ human needs and carbon dioxide emissions reduction : the infras- tructure dynamics at the core of the climate-development interplay. Economics and Finance. École des Ponts ParisTech, 2021. English. NNT : 2021ENPC0003. tel-03272994 HAL Id: tel-03272994 https://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-03272994 Submitted on 28 Jun 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. École doctorale no 528 : Ville, Transports, Territoires Thèse de doctorat pour obtenir le grade de docteur délivré par l’École des Ponts ParisTech Spécialité Sciences Economiques présentée et soutenue publiquement par Vivien FISCH-ROMITO le 05 février 2021 ’Bridging’ human needs and carbon dioxide emissions reduction : the infrastructure dynamics at the core of the climate-development interplay Directrice de thèse : Céline Guivarch COMPOSITION DU JURY : Mme. Evelina Trutnevyte, Professeur, Université de Genève Rapporteure M. Guy Meunier, Chargé de Recherche, INRAE Rapporteur Mme. Julia Steinberger, Professeur, Institut de géographie et durabilité, Université de Lausanne Examinatrice, Présidente du jury M. Henri Waisman, Chargé de recherche, IDDRI Examinateur Mme. Céline Guivarch, Ingénieur en chef des ponts, eaux et forêts, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech Directrice de thèse Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement (CIRED) UMR 8568 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Ainsi s’achève ce voyage au long cours en tant que ’cirédien’. Une aventure dans laquelle j’ai parcouru plusieurs pistes de recherche, me suis parfois égaré, pour finalement retrouver mon chemin en traçant mes propres sentiers grace à de nombreuses rencontres. Je tiens tout d’abord à exprimer ma profonde reconnaissance envers ma directrice de thèse, Céline Guivarch. Sa disponibilité, ses conseils avisés et son soutien ont été très précieux sur ces années principalement pour mes recherches mais également pour l’organisation de mes voyages à vélo en famille. Merci mille fois pour cet encadrement bienveillant et de qualité. Je remercie les membres de mon comité de suivi individuel, Philippe Quirion et Stephane de Cara, pour leurs retours très constructifs. Je remercie également mes autres co-auteurs Jan Minx, Felix Creutzig et Max Callaghan pour notre collaboration qui fut très instructive. J’exprime ma gratitude à Evelina Trutnevyte et Guy Meunier d’avoir accepté d’être rapporteurs de ma thèse, ainsi qu’à Julia Steinberger et Henri Waisman de faire parti du jury. Merci également à Franck Lecocq de m’avoir accueilli au laboratoire du Cired. Au delà du projet personnel de thèse, j’ai eu la chance de pouvoir travailler dans un envi- ronnement magnifique - le Jardin Tropical - et surtout d’être au sein d’un collectif épanouissant. Je pense tout d’abord à mes compagnons de l’open space : Jules pour nos discussions politiques; Basile, Remi et Quentin L pour leur humour espiègle de si bon matin; Nicolas pour son soutien sur la fin de thèse ; Claire pour ses raleries si droles; Emilien pour notre syndrome de l’imposteur et parce que "ciel mon doctorat". Je n’oublie pas tous les autres collègues qui ont été des soutiens et participent à la bonne ambiance de l’équipe : Aurélie, Adrien, Behrang, Marion, Améline, Tamara et Léa pour ces moments hors labo autour d’une bière; Florian d’avoir été mon psymaclim; Meriem pour sa bonne humeur communicative; Franck N. pour nos discussions sur le complotisme; Thierry et son organisation d’évènements aux labos; Laurent le pongiste fou; Julien, Antoine M., Antoine T., Thomas, Samuel, Anne, Gaëtan, Eoin et tous ceux que j’oublie... Ce doctorat s’est aussi déroulé sans encombres grâce à des personnes qui facilitent la vie quotidienne. Merci à Carine, Naceur, Eleonore et Maha pour leur soutien logistique; à Christophe de faire le papa de l’équipe Imaclim; à Estelle pour toujours nous rappeler les bonnes pratiques pour une recherche éthique et ouverte. Un énorme merci aux amis d’études lyonnaises Sarah, Pierre, Youmna, Quentin, Hélène, Fifi, Pierre, Noémie, Plaso, Olivier pour nos week-end à refaire le monde autour de bières et jeux de société. Aux copains scouts Olivier, Marie, Jean-Ba de poursuivre notre aventure commencée à Villeurbanne en tant qu’animateurs. Cette thèse s’est faite en parallèle d’une autre belle aventure qu’est la crèche parentale où j’ai rencontré de fantastiques compagnons de galère qui sont devenus des amis: Hadrien, Shynne, Samuel, Valentina, Simon, Anouk, Marie, Aurélie, Eva, Nicolas, Colin, Florian et Catherine. iii Je conclus en remerciant ma famille proche ayant vécu de près cette thèse. Tout d’abord, Catherine et François qui ont été d’un grand soutien logistique pour la dernière ligne droite de la rédaction. Ensuite, mes deux autres ’chapitres’ entamés durant cette thèse qui m’ont obligé à prendre du recul, Agathe et Maximilien, le dernier ayant même eu la bonne idée d’annoncer son arrivée au milieu d’une de mes présentations en séminaire. Enfin, faire une thèse n’est pas toujours évident mais je crois qu’il est encore plus difficile de vivre avec un thésard et ses appréhensions spécifiques à l’exercice. Claire a endossé ce rôle difficile et je lui en suis infiniment reconnaissant. iv RÉSUMÉ DE LA THÈSE ’Faire le pont’ entre les besoins humains et la réduction des émis- sions de CO2 : la dynamique des infrastructures à l’interaction des enjeux de climat et de développement Les enjeux de développement humain et de réduction du changement climatique sont liés et les infrastructures - bâtiments et ouvrages de génie civil - sont essentielles pour atteindre conjointement ces objectifs. Elles fournissent des services répondant aux besoins sociétaux mais cette fourniture est aujourd’hui insuffisante et intensive en émissions de CO2 au niveau de leur usage et de leur construction. Toutefois, leur dynamique est soumise à des contraintes techniques, économiques et institutionnelles. Dans cette thèse, j’étudie la manière dont l’évolution des stocks globaux d’infrastructures peut permettre de concilier besoins de développement et réduction des émissions de CO2. Je me concentre sur trois points de tension: (i) le verrouillage carbone - l’inertie sur la réduction des émissions futures - induit par le développement à court terme, (ii) le financement limité pour l’investissement et (iii) l’espace carbone pour un développement suffisant des infrastructures de base. Cette thèse apporte une contribution en mettant en lumière certaines conditions à assurer pour que les infrastructures ne limitent pas la faisabilité de la conciliation climat-développement. Dans un premier temps, j’effectue une revue systématique de la littérature sur le ver- rouillage carbone induit par les infrastructures. J’utilise une approche d’apprentissage machine supervisé pour sélectionner les articles pertinents. Je synthétise selon les secteurs et zones géo- graphiques les quantifications existantes de verrouillage carbone, les indicateurs utilisés pour le mesurer et les énoncés mentionnant des implications politiques pour en sortir. Je montre que les centrales électriques au charbon contribuent fortement au verrouillage carbone global et sont exposées au risque d’actifs échoués du fait du retrait anticipé. La répartition sectorielle et le montant des actifs échoués diffèrent selon les pays, avec potentiellement des montants impor- tants pour les bâtiments dans les pays développés. Les actifs échoués sont réduits si les politiques climatiques sont mises en place rapidement. Il est nécessaire d’assurer la légitimité et la stabilité sur le long terme de ces dernières ainsi que la coordination entre les secteurs d’infrastructures. La tarification du carbone ne doit pas être le seul instrument utilisé et doit être complétée par la réglementation et un soutien financier au déploiement du capital bas-carbone. Dans un deuxième chapitre, je quantifie les besoins d’investissements en infrastructures de transport au regard de différents niveaux d’ambitions climatiques. Je construis des scénarios socio-économiques avec un modèle d’évaluation intégré qui représente explicitement le secteur des transports. Je développe un module pour quantifier les besoins d’investissement en cohérence avec les scénarios de mobilité. J’applique une analyse de sensibilité globale pour identifier les v déterminants des besoins d’investissements. Je montre que les besoins d’investissements se ré- duisent avec l’augmentation de l’ambition climatique mais représentent des montants impor- tants par rapport aux niveaux historiques et aux besoins dans les autres secteurs. Les niveaux d’utilisation du réseau ferré et les coûts de construction des routes sont des facteurs déterminants et pourraient être des leviers à activer pour favoriser les trajectoires bas-carbone à cout réduit. Dans un troisième chapitre, j’évalue si un niveau élevé d’accès à 5 services essentiels- électricité, eau, habitat, assainissement et transport - peut être fourni
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