David A. Charlet and Pat Leary College of Southern Nevada Funding and other support for this work:
Nevada Climate Change Infrastructure for Climate Change Research, Education, and Outreach Clark County Ecosystem Indicators Project (Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act) US Geological Survey USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service US Fish and Wildlife Service Bureau of Land Management College of Southern Nevada Wesley E. Niles Herbarium, UNLV Premier location to study climate change Paleoclimate proxy data sets: Biological: fossil, pollen, woodrat midden Geomorphological: pluvial lake shores and basins, sand dunes, glacial and periglacial features Presence of all major temperate life-zones except Humid Transition
Understanding our flora requires the context of climate change, isolation of populations, and refugia Hunt 1967 Plant species have specific tolerances for conditions and resource availability (e.g., temperature, nutrients, water)
Vary one of the conditions (climate), and the distributions of the plants should change To detect changes in vegetation as it responds to changes in climate, we must first know where the vegetation is now
We don’t know very well how species are distributed
We must develop the baseline data
Charlet Billings (1951) Merriam (1898)
Alpine Alpine tundra MZS Arctic-Alpine Subalpine Limber pine-bristlecone pine MZS Hudsonian
Montane Yellow pine-White fir MZS Canadian
Pygmy Conifer Pinyon-juniper MZS Upper Sonoran
Sagebrush Sagebrush-grass Upper Sonoran
Blackbrush Creosote-bush Lower Sonoran
Creosotebush Creosote-bush Lower Sonoran
Saltbush Shadscale Lower Sonoran Alpine
Subalpine Not part of Mojave series Montane
Pygmy Conifer
Sagebrush Saltbush
Absolute desert
South Aspect North Aspect Nival
Alpine
Subalpine
Pluvial Lake / Montane ?
South Aspect North Aspect Alpine
Subalpine Montane
Pygmy Conifer
Sagebrush
Saltbush
Absolute desert
South Aspect North Aspect Alpine Nival Alpine Subalpine Subalpine Montane Alpine Montane Pygmy Conifer Pygmy Conifer Sagebrush Subalpine Sagebrush Saltbush Saltbush Pluvial Lake / Montane ? Absolute desert / Pluvial Lake Absolute desert
Full Glacial Present Day Thermal Max HA2 HØ HA1 Alpine Subalpine Alpine Montane Alpine Subalpine Subalpine Pygmy Conifer Montane Montane Pygmy Conifer Blackbrush Blackbrush Creosotebush Pygmy Conifer Creosotebush Saltbush Blackbrush Saltbush Pluvial Lake / Saltbush Absolute desert Absolute desert Full Glacial Present Day Thermal Max HA2 HØ HA1 Precipitation gauge High tensile Radiation sensor strength Passive supports solar design
State of the art climate monitoring stations State of the art climate monitoring stations Climate transects BASELINE DATA Four types collected at each site Floristic the plant species
Vegetation the arrangement and structure of plant species that dominate the site
Physical Location, elevation, aspect, slope, substrate
Photographic High resolution, geo-referenced, time-stamped Mojave Transect
Climate stations (5)
Distribution of samples (n = 2007) Climate monitoring installations (7):
Vegetation samples (n = 316) 1699 1700 1701 1702 Achnatherum hymenoides Achnatherum hymenoides Abies concolor Abies concolor Agave utahensis eborispina Achnatherum parishii Achnatherum hymenoides Ageratina herbacea Amelanchier utahensis Agave utahensis eborispina Achnatherum parishii Amelanchier utahensis Arceuthobium divaricatum Amelanchier utahensis Achnatherum parishii de Artemisia dracunculus Artemisia nova Artemisia dracunculus Agave utahensis eborispina Artemisia nova Artemisia tridentata vaseyana Artemisia ludoviciana Ageratina herbacea Artemisia tridentata vaseyana Asclepias asperula Artemisia nova Amelanchier utahensis Boechera perennans Astragalus calycosus Artemisia tridentata vaseyana Antennaria rosea Bouteloua gracilis Astragalus purshii Astragalus platytropis Arceuthobium divaricatum Brickellia grandiflora Berberis fremontii Astragalus purshii Artemisia dracunculus Bromus anomalus Bouteloua gracilis Berberis fremontii Artemisia nova Carex rossii Carex rossii Bouteloua gracilis Astragalus humistratus Castilleja linearifolia Castilleja linearifolia Brickellia oblongifolia Berberis fremontii Cercocarpus ledifolius Floristic Ceanothus greggii Calylophus lavanduliferus Bouteloua gracilis Chamaescyce fendlerii Chaetopappa ericoides Carex rossii Carex rossii Chrysothamnus depressus Chamaescyce fendlerii Castilleja lineariifolia Castilleja linearifolia Cirsium arizonicum Chrysothamnus depressus Ceanothus greggii Cercocarpus intricatus Cryptantha cinerea abortiva Cordylanthus parvifolia Cercocarpus intricatus Cercocarpus ledifolius Cryptantha flavoculata Coryphantha vivipara Cercocarpus ledifolius Cheilanthes feei Elymus elymoides Data Cryptantha flavoculata Chaetopappa ericoides Cirsium arizonicum Ephedra viridis Echinocereus triglochidiatus Chamaescyce fendlerii Cryptantha flavoculata Ericameria parryi nevadensis Elymus elymoides Chenopodium fremontii Cuniculotinus gramineus Eriogonum panamintense Ephedra viridis Cirsium arizonicum Echinocereus triglochidiatus Eriogonum umbellatum subardu Eriogonum microthecum simp Cryptantha flavoculata Elymus elymoides Euphorbia brachycera Eriogonum umbellatum subarid Dietaria canescens Ephedra viridis Gutierrezia sarothrae Frasera albomarginata Echinocereus triglochidiatus Ericameria parryi nevadensis Ipomopsis arizonica Gilia inconspicua Elymus elymoides Glossopetalon spinescens Juniperus osteosperma Glossopetalon spinescens Ephedra viridis Hesperostipa comata Juniperus scopulorum Gutierrezia sarothrae Ericameria nauseosa speciosa Hymenopappus filifolius Linanthus nuttallii Hedeoma drummondii Eriogonum microthecum simpso Ipomopsis arizonica Oenothera caespitosa marginata Hymenoxys cooperi Eriogonum umbellatum subaridu Jamesia americana Opuntia polyacantha erinacea Juniperus osteosperma Euphorbia brachycera Juniperus osteosperma Opuntia polyacantha hystricina Opuntia phaecantha Fallugia paradoxa Juniperus scopulorum Packera multilobata Opuntia polyacantha erinacea Galium parishii Linanthus nuttallii Pedicularis semibarbata charlest Opuntia polyacantha hystricina Glossopetalon spinescens Linum lewisii Penstemon eatonii Penstemon eatonii Gutierrezia sarothrae Lomatium graveolens alpinum Penstemon linarioides sileri Penstemon palmeri Hedeoma drummondii Penstemon eatonii Penstemon rostriflorus Phoradendron juniperinum Hymenopappus filifolius Penstemon linarioides sileri Petradoria pumila Physaria kingii Ipomopsis arizonica Petradoria pumila Phlox condensata Pinus monophylla Juniperus osteosperma Philadelphus microphyllus Physaria chambersii Poa fendleriana Linanthus nuttallii Phlox condensata Physaria kingii Purshia stansburiana Linum lewisii Physocarpus alternans Pinus monophylla Sphaeralcea parviflora Lomatium graveolens alpinum Pinus longaeva Pinus ponderosa Symphoriocarpos longiflorus Mirabilis oxybaphoides Pinus monophylla Poa fendleriana Yucca baccata Oenothera caespitosa marginata Pinus ponderosa Pseudoroegneria spicata Opuntia polyacantha erinacea Piptatherum micranthum Purshia stansburiana Opuntia polyacantha hystricina Pseudoroegneria spicata Rhus trilobata Penstemon eatonii Silene verrucunda Ribes cereum Penstemon linarioides sileri Symphoriocarpos longiflorus Salvia dorrii clokeyi Phlox condensata Tetradymia canescens Symphoriocarpos longiflorus Physaria chambersii Tetraneuris acaulis Tetradymia canescens Physaria kingii Tetraneuris acaulis Pinus monophylla Thelesperma subnudum Pinus ponderosa Piptatherum micranthum Prunus fasciculatum Pseudoroegneria spicatum Purshia stansburiana Salvia dorrii clokeyi Symphoriocarpos longiflorus
Mojave matrix: 2007 samples x 840 species
20 VEGETATION AND FLORISTIC SAMPLES (N = 316) DISTRIBUTED BY LIFE ZONE AND ELEVATION IN WHITE PINE COUNTY, NEVADA SALTBUSH 18 CREOSOTEBUSH N BLACKBRUSH U 16 M SAGEBRUSH B 14 E Climate monitoring PYGMY CONIFER R installations (7): 12 MONTANE
O SUBALPINE F 10 ALPINE
S 8 A 2 per. Mov. Avg. (SALTBUSH) M 6 2 per. Mov. Avg. P (SAGEBRUSH) L E 4 S
2
0 100 250 400 550 700 850 1000 1150 1300 1450 1600 1750 1900 2050 2200 2350 2500 2650 2800 2950 3100 3250 3400 3550 3700 3850 ELEVATION (m) 100 VEGETATION AND FLORISTIC SAMPLES (N = 2007) DISTRIBUTED BY LIFE ZONE AND ELEVATION IN CLARK COUNTY, NEVADA 90 SALTBUSH N 80 U CREOSOTEBUSH M B 70 BLACKBRUSH E Climate monitoring SAGEBRUSH R 60 installations (5): PYGMY CONIFER O F 50 MONTANE
SUBALPINE S 40 A 2 per. Mov. Avg. M (SALTBUSH) 30 P L E 20 S
10
0 100 250 400 550 700 850 1000 1150 1300 1450 1600 1750 1900 2050 2200 2350 2500 2650 2800 2950 3100 3250 3400 3550 3700 3850 ELEVATION (m) 576 NVCS plots (266 in 1770 “RACE” samples Great Basin transect, 310 (1700 in Mojave transect, in Mojave transect) 70 in Great Basin transect)
Quantitative cover species Presence/absence species data data
Useful for detailed Useful for defining life analysis of species zones in a single distributions in a single landscape feature or landscape feature across a region Presence/Absence data of groups of trees and shrubs
Useful for regional trends Group characteristics Economically important Ecologically important K – selected species Long time to reproductive maturity, long- lived, slow to move Distance to “source” has small effect on diversity
Size of “island” has large effect on diversity “Montane relief” alone explained 65% of the variation in conifer diversity across the region Distribution pattern is extinction-driven, due largely to changing climate over past 2 million years
Examining climate change in our lifetime requires a finer scale PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model)
Quantitative cover species data
Useful for detailed analysis of species distributions in a single landscape feature
Irradiance values derived from 10m DEM and the highly complex topography of the Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area Surficial Geology • Scale 1:150,000
• MMU 10 ha
• 47 Mapped Units
• Contains Generalized Bedrock Geology and surficial units
• Created by Kyle House and UNR Geo-Spatial Lab Soils Maps
USDA NRCS mapping efforts in Clark County and White Pine County are complete To date, > 1000 unique vegetation Associations (n = 2340 samples)
Encountered 950 of 4400 taxa in the region sampling remains inadequate
Relating environmental variables to distribution of species CORNCK_VEG_61_NMS
6_CCD 85_CCD
80_CCD PRGL
104_CCW
102_CCW SV
107_CCW LATR/AMDU 106_CCW
13_SRP 105_CCW
24_SRP 103_CCW 101_CCW
23_SRP LATR/ATCO ATPO 20_SRP21_SRP 58_CCW 22_SRP 86_CCD 8_CCW Shrub sm_rocks Tree coverTree_cv height 7_CCW Axis 2 Axis litter 34_CCW 59_CCW 36_CCW 29_CCW %_COVER 37_CCW 54_CCW % cover litter S3_ht 83_CCD S1_ht Upland 108_CCW RiverinewoodShrub_cv Uhydro
57_CCW Herb_cv 221_Soil Upland 87_CCD Herb cover 33_CCW 31_CCW 84_CCD ATCA
2_CCD 221 soil 82_CCD
56_CCW 3_CCD 16_CCD ATCO 19_CCD sand 11_CCD 32_CCW 55_CCW 35_CCW Sand 10_CCD 26_CCD 28_CCW 27_CCW 4_CCD 18_CCD 52_CCW 30_CCW 25_CCD CH VI 17_CCD 9_CCD 14_CCD 12_CCD
5_CCD 1_CCD
15_CCD
81_CCD 53_CCW
Axis 1 More than 1100 encounters with more than 50 sensitive rare species in 2340 samples
Photo by Pat Leary New climate measurements
Future surveys can detect responses to change