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Archires Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Of Use of Automatically Collected Data for the Preliminary Impact Analysis of the East London Line Extension by MASSA CHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHN,OLOGY Albert Ng MAR 2 5 2011 B.S., Civil Engineering, Northeastern University (2005) ISRARIES B.A., Psychology/Sociology, Wesleyan University (1998) ARCHirES Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Transportation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology February 2011 0 2011 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. 7/ // Signature of A uthor................................................................................................. Department of Civil and Environmental Epoeering January 28, 2011 C ertified by................................................................................... .................Wis Nigel H.M. Wilson Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Co-Director, Master of Science in Transportation Program Thesis Supervisor C ertified b y ................................................................................................ .............. ...... John P. Attanucci Research Associate of ~ and Envir mental Engneering Thesis S/pervisor A ccep ted b y ........................................................................................................................................................ Heidi . Nepf Chair, Departmental Committee for Graduate Students Use of Automatically Collected Data for the Preliminary Impact Analyses of the East London Line Extension by Albert Ng Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering on January 28, 2011, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Transportation Abstract Data from public transport automated data collection (ADC) systems are now widely used in academic research and are beginning to be used for planning purposes. ADC systems provide ubiquitous and inexpensive, if limited, data streams for planning purposes. Since ADC data systems have been around for some time and are deployed by many large public transport agencies, the resulting data can be used for before and after impact analyses of changes in the transportation system. This research explores the use of automatically collected data to understand the impacts of a major public transport infrastructure investment on a complex existing network. The research presents the methods, using automatically collected data, to determine the impacts on multiple modes of transportation and the preliminary results of the impact of the introduction of the East London Line Extension. The East London Line is still in the early stages of growth and first and second order impacts continue to develop. The line is carrying an average of approximately 70,000 passengers per day and ridership continues to increase monthly. The East London Line is an important public transport crossing of the Thames River and a crucial role as a distributer to and from intersecting rail lines. It was estimated that between 28 to 32 percent of the daily weekday passenger journeys are new journeys to the public transport system. There is a change in ridership on many bus routes that run through the area served by the East London line. A more detailed analysis on four bus routes that run parallel to the East London Line and two bus routes that act as feeder routes show mixed results by route, direction, and time period. The mixed results lead us to believe that based on this preliminary impact analysis, the East London line can have a positive and negative impact on bus ridership but the impacts are most likely route, route segment, time of day, and direction specific. Analysis of disaggregate data showed that journey frequency of East London Line patrons increased at a higher rate than for the control panel. It is clear that ADC system data provides a cost effective means to capture a breath and depth of data suitable for impact analyses. Thesis Supervisor: Nigel H. M. Wilson Tide: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Thesis Supervisor: John P. Attanucci Title: Research Associate of Civil and Environmental Engineering 4 Acknowledgements The research presented in this thesis could not have been possible without the generous help of a number of individuals which the author would like to acknowledge and thank. " Professor Nigel Wilson, John Attanucci, and Dr. Jinhua Zhao for their tireless supervision of this research, guidance through this process, and input into the content of this thesis. " Transport for London, in particular Carol Smales, David Warner, and Andrew Gaitskill, who provided financial support, knowledge, support, data, and an enjoyable summer internship in London. " Fellow MST students who provided support and encouragement through this process and made the author's time in graduate school a fun and fulfilling experience. Kevin Muhs and Lanie Sandberg for their help with analysis. Michael Frumin, the encyclopedia of all things related to TfL data. " Jay Gordon for being a fantastic, creative, and knowledgeable research partner and friend. " My friends and family for their patience and support. " My wonderful wife for her love and understanding through this crazy period of our lives. 6 Contents A bstract ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3 A cknow ledgem ents ................................................................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... 11 List of T ables........................................................................................................................................................... 13 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.1. R esearch M otivation............................................................................................................................ 16 1.2. R esearch O bjectives ............................................................................................................................ 16 1.3. R esearch A pproach.............................................................................................................................. 17 1.4. Thesis O rganization............................................................................................................................. 18 2 Impact Analysis for Public Transport Projects...................................................................19 2.1. W hat is an Impact A nalysis?.......................................................................................................... 19 2.1.1. Types of Impacts ............................................................................................................... 19 2.2. B enefits of Im pact A nalyses ......................................................................................................... 20 2.3. Im pact A nalysis Strategies............................................................................................................... 21 2.3.1. B efore and A fter ....................................................................... ........ ........ 22 2.3.2. C ontrol G roup ....................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.3. M odeling.................................................................................................................................. 23 2.4. FTA Guidelines for Im pact A nalyses .............................................................................................. 24 2.4.1. FTA N ew Starts Program .................................................................................................... 24 2.4.2. FTA 's B efore and A fter Studies....................................................................................... 24 2.4.3. Assessment of FTA Before and After Study Requirements ................. 28 2.5. Sum m ary................................................................................................................................................ 29 3 The Role of Data in Impact Assessment ........................................................................... 31 3.1. Public Transport Planning and Im pact A nalyses........................................................................ 31 3.2. T raditional D ata C ollection M ethods ........................................................................................... 31 3.2.1. C ustom er Surveys............................................................................................................... 32 3.2.2. Public Transport O perations D ata................................................................................. 36 3.2.3. C ensus D ata............................................................................................................................ 37 3.3. Summary of Traditional Data Collection M ethods .................................................................. 38 3.4. Limitation of Traditional Data Collection M ethods ...............................................................
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