Understanding Technical Analysis : Candlestick Charts
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A Statistical Analysis of the Predictive Power of Japanese Candlesticks Mohamed Jamaloodeen Georgia Gwinnett College, [email protected]
Journal of International & Interdisciplinary Business Research Volume 5 Article 5 June 2018 A Statistical Analysis of the Predictive Power of Japanese Candlesticks Mohamed Jamaloodeen Georgia Gwinnett College, [email protected] Adrian Heinz Georgia Gwinnett College, [email protected] Lissa Pollacia Georgia Gwinnett College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.fhsu.edu/jiibr Part of the Finance and Financial Management Commons Recommended Citation Jamaloodeen, Mohamed; Heinz, Adrian; and Pollacia, Lissa (2018) "A Statistical Analysis of the Predictive Power of Japanese Candlesticks," Journal of International & Interdisciplinary Business Research: Vol. 5 , Article 5. Available at: https://scholars.fhsu.edu/jiibr/vol5/iss1/5 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by FHSU Scholars Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of International & Interdisciplinary Business Research by an authorized editor of FHSU Scholars Repository. Jamaloodeen et al.: Analysis of Predictive Power of Japanese Candlesticks A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF JAPANESE CANDLESTICKS Mohamed Jamaloodeen, Georgia Gwinnett College Adrian Heinz, Georgia Gwinnett College Lissa Pollacia, Georgia Gwinnett College Japanese Candlesticks is a technique for plotting past price action of a specific underlying such as a stock, index or commodity using open, high, low and close prices. These candlesticks create patterns believed to forecast future price movement. Although the candles’ popularity has increased rapidly over the last decade, there is still little statistical evidence about their effectiveness over a large number of occurrences. In this work, we analyze the predictive power of the Shooting Star and Hammer patterns using over six decades of historical data of the S&P 500 index. -
Copyrighted Material
Index 12b-1 fee, 68–69 combining with Western analysis, 3M, 157 122–123 continuation day, 116 ABC of Stock Speculation, 157 doji, 115 accrual accounting, 18 dragonfl y doji, 116–117 accumulated depreciation, 46–47 engulfi ng pattern, 120, 121 accumulation phase, 158 gravestone doji, 116, 117, 118 accumulation/distribution line, hammer, 119 146–147 hanging man, 119 Adaptive Market Hypothesis, 155 harami, 119, 120 Altria, 29, 127, 185–186 indicators 120 Amazon.com, 151 long, 116, 117, 118 amortization, 47, 49 long-legged doji, 118 annual report, 44–46 lower shadow, 115 ascending triangle, 137–138, 140 marubozu, 116 at the money, 192 real body, 114–115 AT&T, 185–186 segments illustrated, 114 shadows, 114 back-end sales load, 67–68 short,116, 117 balance sheet, 46–50 spinning top, 118–119 balanced mutual funds, 70–71 squeeze alert, 121, 122, 123 basket of stocks, 63 tails, 114 blue chip companies, 34 three black crows, 122, 123 Boeing, 134–135 three white soldiers, 122, 123 book value, 169 trend-based, 117–118 breadth, 82–83, 97 upper shadow, 115 breakaway gap, 144 wicks, 114 break-even rate, 16–17 capital assets, 48, 49 breakout, 83–84, 105–106 capitalization-based funds, 71 Buffett, Warren, 152 capitalization-weighted average, 157 bull and bear markets,COPYRIGHTED 81, 174–175 Caterpillar, MATERIAL 52–54, 55, 57, 58, 59, 131 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 15 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), 170, 171 Buy-and-hold strategy, 32, 204–205 Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), 146 buy to open/sell to open, 96 channel, 131–132 charting calendar spreads, 200–201 -
Stock Market Prediction Using Candlestick Chart
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 07 Issue: 01 | Jan 2020 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 Stock Market Prediction using Candlestick Chart Razik Batliwala1, Muddassir Khan2, Durvesh Bhushan3 1,2Information Technology, PadmabhushanVasantdada Patil Pratishthan’s College of Engineering, Sion Mumbai 3Vaity Information Technology PadmabhushanVasantdada Patil Pratishthan’s College of Engineering, Sion Mumbai ------------------------------------------------------------------------***------------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract—The stock market is a place where shares of publicly listed companies are traded. There shares based on brought and sold on this basis of there stock. The price of stocks and assets are an important part of the economy. There are many factors that affect share prices. However there is no specific cause for the prices to rise or fall. This makes investment subject to various risks. We proposed a novel method for prediction of stocks price on the basis of statistical data and making of candlestick chart for up to 3-4 days to find if investment are beneficial or loss of money, It is also beneficial to analyzing in future stock. In this paper we developing (LCS) Longest Common Subsequence Algorithm to retrieve numerical sequences that partially match. It also use for real time service provider to provide stock market sentiments. Keywords—Stock price prediction; Technical analysis; Candlestick charts; Longest common subsequence algorithm for numbers; Multi numerical attributes; Nse,Bse stock average. 1. INTRODUCTION Stock market prediction techniques play a crucial role to bring more people into market and encourage markets as a whole. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two popular approaches to successful stock trading. -
Stock Chart Pattern Recognition with Deep Learning
Stock Chart Pattern recognition with Deep Learning Marc Velay and Fabrice Daniel Artificial Intelligence Department of Lusis, Paris, France [email protected] http://www.lusis.fr June 2018 ABSTRACT the number of patterns recognized implies having a human examining candlestick charts in order to deduce signal char- This study evaluates the performances of CNN and LSTM acteristics before implementing the detection using condi- for recognizing common charts patterns in a stock historical tions specific to that pattern. Adding different parameters data. It presents two common patterns, the method used to to modulate ratios allows us to tweak the patterns’ charac- build the training set, the neural networks architectures and teristics. This technique does not have any generalization the accuracies obtained. potential. If the pattern is slightly outside of the defined Keywords: Deep Learning, CNN, LSTM, Pattern recogni- bounds, it will not be detected, even if a human would have tion, Technical Analysis classified it otherwise. Another solution is DTW3 which consists in computing 1 INTRODUCTION the distance between two time series. DTW allows us to Patterns are recurring sequences found in OHLC1 candle- recognize a pattern that could vary in size and length. To stick charts which traders have historically used as buy and use this algorithm, we must use reference time series, which sell signals. Several studies, notably by Bulkowski2, have have to be selected by a human. The references must gener- found some correlation between patterns and future trends, alize well when compared with signals similar to the pattern although to a limited extent. The correlations were found to in order to capture the whole range. -
Forecasting Direction of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Two Dimensional Patterns and Currency Strength
FORECASTING DIRECTION OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS WITH TWO DIMENSIONAL PATTERNS AND CURRENCY STRENGTH A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY MUSTAFA ONUR ÖZORHAN IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PILOSOPHY IN COMPUTER ENGINEERING MAY 2017 Approval of the thesis: FORECASTING DIRECTION OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS WITH TWO DIMENSIONAL PATTERNS AND CURRENCY STRENGTH submitted by MUSTAFA ONUR ÖZORHAN in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Gülbin Dural Ünver _______________ Dean, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Prof. Dr. Adnan Yazıcı _______________ Head of Department, Computer Engineering Prof. Dr. İsmail Hakkı Toroslu _______________ Supervisor, Computer Engineering Department, METU Examining Committee Members: Prof. Dr. Tolga Can _______________ Computer Engineering Department, METU Prof. Dr. İsmail Hakkı Toroslu _______________ Computer Engineering Department, METU Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cem İyigün _______________ Industrial Engineering Department, METU Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tansel Özyer _______________ Computer Engineering Department, TOBB University of Economics and Technology Assist. Prof. Dr. Murat Özbayoğlu _______________ Computer Engineering Department, TOBB University of Economics and Technology Date: ___24.05.2017___ I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last name: MUSTAFA ONUR ÖZORHAN Signature: iv ABSTRACT FORECASTING DIRECTION OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS WITH TWO DIMENSIONAL PATTERNS AND CURRENCY STRENGTH Özorhan, Mustafa Onur Ph.D., Department of Computer Engineering Supervisor: Prof. -
Candlestick—The Main Mistake of Economy Research in High Frequency Markets
International Journal of Financial Studies Article Candlestick—The Main Mistake of Economy Research in High Frequency Markets Michał Dominik Stasiak Department of Investment and Real Estate, Poznan University of Economics and Business, al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875 Poznan, Poland; [email protected] Received: 4 August 2020; Accepted: 1 October 2020; Published: 10 October 2020 Abstract: One of the key problems of researching the high-frequency financial markets is the proper data format. Application of the candlestick representation (or its derivatives such as daily prices, etc.), which is vastly used in economic research, can lead to faulty research results. Yet, this fact is consistently ignored in most economic studies. The following article gives examples of possible consequences of using candlestick representation in modelling and statistical analysis of the financial markets. Emphasis should be placed on the problem of research results being detached from the investing practice, which makes most of the results inapplicable from the investor’s point of view. The article also presents the concept of a binary-temporal representation, which is an alternative to the candlestick representation. Using binary-temporal representation allows for more precise and credible research and for the results to be applied in investment practice. Keywords: high frequency econometric; technical analysis; investment decision support; candlestick representation; binary-temporal representation JEL Classification: C01; C53; C90 1. Introduction While researching any subject literature, often one can notice that some popular methods in scientific research are copied and used without second thought by further researchers. Nowadays, the vast majority of papers pertaining to the analysis of course trajectory on financial markets and connected prediction possibilities use historical data in the form of a candlestick representation (or its derivatives such as daily opening prices, usually called daily prices, etc.) (Burgess 2010; Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist 2010; Schlossberg 2012). -
Japanese Candlestick Patterns
Presents Japanese Candlestick Patterns www.ForexMasterMethod.com www.ForexMasterMethod.com RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT / DISCLAIMER AGREEMENT Trading any financial market involves risk. This course and all and any of its contents are neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell any financial market. The contents of this course are for general information and educational purposes only (contents shall also mean the website http://www.forexmastermethod.com or any website the content is hosted on, and any email correspondence or newsletters or postings related to such website). Every effort has been made to accurately represent this product and its potential. There is no guarantee that you will earn any money using the techniques, ideas and software in these materials. Examples in these materials are not to be interpreted as a promise or guarantee of earnings. Earning potential is entirely dependent on the person using our product, ideas and techniques. We do not purport this to be a “get rich scheme.” Although every attempt has been made to assure accuracy, we do not give any express or implied warranty as to its accuracy. We do not accept any liability for error or omission. Examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or strategy. No representation is being made that any account or trader will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this report. Past performance is not indicative of future results. By purchasing the content, subscribing to our mailing list or using the website or contents of the website or materials provided herewith, you will be deemed to have accepted these terms and conditions in full as appear also on our site, as do our full earnings disclaimer and privacy policy and CFTC disclaimer and rule 4.41 to be read herewith. -
Three Advancing White Soldiers
Continuation Patterns 143 DAILY BAR 1990 CQG INC. -- . 2021 -H= 2021 . ... 1991 -L= 2002 . .A= -20 . 2150 ... 7/23/90 . Hammer . 2021 .L= -C= 2002 . 3 EXHIBIT 7.35. Dow Jones Utilities-1990, Daily (Falling Three Methods). wrong. Wait until the pattern is formed, or confirmed, before acting on its implications! Exhibit 7.35 is a classic falling three method whose bearish implica- tion was negated by the hammer. If the hammer was not enough to tell one the was ending more proof was added with the white ses- sion following the hammer. This completed a bullish engulfing pattern. THREE ADVANCING WHITE SOLDIERS Like much of the candlestick terminology, this pattern has a military association. It is known as the three advancing white soldiers (see Exhibit 7.36) or, more commonly, three white soldiers. It is a group of three white candlesticks with consecutively higher closes. If this pattern appears at a low price area after a period of stable prices, then it is a sign of strength ahead. The three white soldiers are a gradual and steady rise with each white line opening within or near the prior session's white real body. Each of the white candlesticks should close at, or near, its highs. It is a 144 The Basics EXHIBIT 7.36. Three Advancing EXHIBIT 7.37. Advance Block EXHIBIT 7.38. Stalled Pattern White Soldiers healthy method for the market to rise (although if the white candlesticks are very extended, one should be cautious about an overbought market). If the second and third, or just the third candlestick, show signs of weakening it is an advance block pattern (see Exhibit 7.37). -
Point and Figure Relative Strength Signals
February 2016 Point and Figure Relative Strength Signals JOHN LEWIS / CMT, Dorsey, Wright & Associates Relative Strength, also known as momentum, has been proven to be one of the premier investment factors in use today. Numerous studies by both academics and investment ABOUT US professionals have demonstrated that winning securities continue to outperform. This phenomenon has been found Dorsey, Wright & Associates, a Nasdaq Company, is a in equity markets all over the globe as well as commodity registered investment advisory firm based in Richmond, markets and in asset allocation strategies. Momentum works Virginia. Since 1987, Dorsey Wright has been a leading well within and across markets. advisor to financial professionals on Wall Street and investment managers worldwide. Relative Strength strategies focus on purchasing securities that have already demonstrated the ability to outperform Dorsey Wright offers comprehensive investment research a broad market benchmark or the other securities in the and analysis through their Global Technical Research Platform investment universe. As a result, a momentum strategy and provides research, modeling and indexes that apply requires investors to purchase securities that have already Dorsey Wright’s expertise in Relative Strength to various appreciated quite a bit in price. financial products including exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, UITs, structured products, and separately managed There are many different ways to calculate and quantify accounts. Dorsey Wright’s expertise is technical analysis. The momentum. This is similar to a value strategy. There are Company uses Point and Figure Charting, Relative Strength many different metrics that can be used to determine a Analysis, and numerous other tools to analyze market data security’s value. -
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
Understanding Technical Analysis : Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Apart from candlestick chart pattern indicators, traders or analysts often use the Hi 74.57 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index Potential supply (RSI) in technical analysis of financial security. Like the candlestickdisruption chart indicators, due to MACD is also used to identify any trend pattern movement. attacks on two oil Brent tankers near Iran What is MACD? WTI Momentum • MACD is a momentum oscillator indicator WTI Oscillator which is used to identify trend formation Lo 2,237.40 (24 Mar 2020) • MACD shows a relationship betweenLo 18,591.93 two (24 Mar 2020) Moving moving averages of a financial instrument. • It combines price points of an instrument over Averages a specified time frame, divided by the number of data points, to give a single trend line Simple Moving Average (SMA) Exponential Moving Average (EMA) • The most basic MA, which is just a • A type of moving average that gives straight calculation of the mean price more weight to recent prices which of a set of values over a given time involves three steps. periods. • The SMA is computed first. Next, we • If you were to calculate the SMA for a must calculate the multiplier for ten-day period, you would take the weighting the EMA. The final step summed value of the last ten days involves the use of formula to and divide the result by ten. compute the current EMA. Level 6, Kenanga Tower, 237 Jalan Tun Razak, 50400 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tel: (603) 2172 3888 Fax: (603) 2172 2729 Email: [email protected] Website: www.kenangafutures.com.my How MACD works? MACD is generated by subtracting the long term EMAs (26 period) from the short term EMAs (12 periods) to form the main line known as MACD line. -
Development and Analysis of a Trading Algorithm Using Candlestick Patterns
COMP 4971C – Independent Study (Summer 2016) DEVELOPMENT AND ANALYSIS OF A TRADING ALGORITHM USING CANDLESTICK PATTERNS By MUTHUKUMAR, Sivaraam Year 4, Dual Degree in Technology and Management (MEGBA) [email protected] 11th August 2016 Supervised by: Dr David Rossiter Department of Computer Science and Engineering Development and Analysis of a Trading Algorithm using Candlestick Patterns Table of Contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 3 Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 3 PROCESS FLOW .......................................................................................................................... 4 GETTING DATA ........................................................................................................................... 5 Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 5 COLOUR CODING THE CANDLESTICK CHART ............................................................................. 5 Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 6 Colour coding algorithm ....................................................................................................... -
Trading Guide
Tim Trush & Julie Lavrin Introducing MAGIC FOREX CANDLESTICKS Trading Guide Your guide to financial freedom. © Tim Trush, Julie Lavrin, T&J Profit Club, 2017, All rights reserved https://tinyurl.com/forexmp Table Of Contents Chapter I: Introduction to candlesticks I.1. Understanding the candlestick chart 3 Most traders focus purely on technical indicators and they don't realize how valuable the original candlesticks are. I.2. Candlestick patterns really work! 4 When a candlestick reversal pattern appears, you should exit position before it's too late! Chapter II: High profit candlestick patterns II.1. Bullish reversal patterns 6 This category of candlestick patterns signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. II.2. Bullish continuation patterns 8 Bullish continuation patterns signal that the established trend will continue. II.3. Bearish reversal patterns 9 This category of candlestick patterns signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. II.4. Bearish continuation patterns 11 This category of candlestick patterns signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. Chapter III: How to find out the market trend? 12 The Heiken Ashi indicator is a popular tool that helps to identify the trend. The disadvantage of this approach is that it does not include consolidation. Chapter IV: Simple scalping strategy IV.1. Wow, Lucky Spike! 14 Everyone can learn it, use it, make money with it. There are traders who make a living trading just this pattern. IV.2. Take a profit now! 15 When to enter, where to place Stop Loss and when to exit. IV.3. Examples 15 The next examples show you not only trend reversal signals, but the Lucky Spike concept helps you to identify when the correction is over and the main trend is going to recover.