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Science Vision Draft A Science Vision for European Astronomy ASTRONET SVWG DRAFT December 19, 2006 ii Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The role of science in society . ............................. 1 1.2 Astronomy . ........................................ 3 1.3 Predicting the future .................................... 5 1.4 This document ........................................ 6 2 Do we understand the extremes of the Universe? 7 2.1 How did the Universe begin? . ............................. 8 2.1.1 Background . .................................... 8 2.1.2 Key observables . ............................. 9 2.1.3 Future experiments . ............................. 9 2.2 What is dark matter and dark energy? . ......................... 10 2.2.1 Current status .................................... 10 2.2.2 Experimental signatures . ............................. 11 2.2.3 Future strategy . ............................. 12 2.3 Can we observe strong gravity in action? . ..................... 13 2.3.1 Background . .................................... 13 2.3.2 Experiments . .................................... 15 2.4 How do supernovae and gamma-ray bursts work? . ................. 17 2.4.1 Current status .................................... 17 2.4.2 Key questions .................................... 18 2.4.3 Future experiments . ............................. 19 2.5 How do black hole accretion, jets and outflows operate? . .......... 20 2.5.1 Background . .................................... 20 2.5.2 Experiments . .................................... 21 2.6 What do we learn from energetic radiation and particles? . .......... 22 2.6.1 Background . .................................... 22 2.6.2 Experiments . .................................... 22 3 How do galaxies form and evolve? 25 3.1 How did the Universe emerge from its Dark Ages? . ................. 26 3.1.1 Background . .................................... 26 3.1.2 Key questions .................................... 26 3.1.3 Future strategy/opportunities . ......................... 29 3.2 How did the structure of the cosmic web evolve? . ................. 30 3.2.1 Background . .................................... 30 3.2.2 Key questions and experiments . ......................... 31 iii iv CONTENTS 3.3 Where are most of the metals throughout cosmic time? . .......... 32 3.3.1 Background . .................................... 32 3.3.2 Key questions .................................... 33 3.3.3 Future key facilities . ............................. 34 3.4 How were galaxies assembled? . ............................. 35 3.4.1 Introduction . .................................... 35 3.4.2 Key questions and experiments . ......................... 37 3.5 How did our Galaxy form? . ............................. 39 3.5.1 Background . .................................... 39 3.5.2 Key questions .................................... 40 3.5.3 Future experiments . ............................. 41 4 What is the origin and evolution of stars and planets? 43 4.1 How do stars form? . .................................... 44 4.1.1 Background . .................................... 44 4.1.2 Key questions .................................... 45 4.1.3 Strategy for the future . ............................. 46 4.2 Is the initial mass function of stars universal? . ..................... 47 4.2.1 Background . .................................... 47 4.2.2 Key questions and strategy for the future . ................. 49 4.3 What do we learn by probing stellar interiors? ..................... 49 4.3.1 Background . .................................... 49 4.3.2 Key questions .................................... 50 4.3.3 Strategy for the future . ............................. 51 4.4 What is the life-cycle of the Interstellar Medium and Stars? . .......... 52 4.4.1 Background . .................................... 52 4.4.2 Key questions .................................... 54 4.4.3 Strategy for the future . ............................. 54 4.5 How do planetary systems form and evolve? . ..................... 55 4.5.1 Background . .................................... 55 4.5.2 Key questions .................................... 55 4.5.3 Strategy for the future . ............................. 57 4.6 What are the demographics of planets in the Galaxy? ................. 57 4.6.1 Background . .................................... 57 4.6.2 Key questions .................................... 59 4.6.3 Strategy for the future . ............................. 59 4.7 How do we tell which planets harbour life? . ..................... 61 4.7.1 Background . .................................... 61 4.7.2 Key questions and strategy for the future . ................. 62 5 How do we fit in? 63 5.1 What can the Sun teach us about astrophysical processes? . .......... 64 5.1.1 Background . .................................... 64 5.1.2 Experiments . .................................... 64 5.2 What drives Solar variability on all scales? . ..................... 66 5.2.1 Background . .................................... 66 5.2.2 Experiments . .................................... 66 CONTENTS v 5.3 What is the impact of Solar activity on life on Earth? . ................. 68 5.3.1 Background . .................................... 68 5.3.2 Experiments . .................................... 69 5.4 What is the dynamical history of the Solar system? . ................. 70 5.4.1 Background . .................................... 70 5.4.2 Key questions and opportunities ......................... 71 5.5 What can we learn from Solar System exploration? . ................. 71 5.5.1 Background . .................................... 71 5.5.2 Key questions and opportunities ......................... 75 5.6 Where should we look for life in the Solar System? . ................. 78 5.6.1 Background . .................................... 78 5.6.2 Key questions and opportunities ......................... 79 6 Recommendations 81 6.1 Do we understand the extremes of the Universe? . ................. 81 6.2 How do galaxies form and evolve? . ......................... 83 6.3 What is the origin and evolution of stars and planets? ................. 84 6.4Howdowefitin?...................................... 85 Contributors 89 List of abbreviations 91 Note This is a draft document, written by the members of the Science Vision Working Group and its supporting panels (see Contributors). The document is intended as a starting point for com- munity input via the ASTRONET website www.astronet-eu.org and the Science Vision dis- cussion website http://www.strw.leidenuniv.nl/sciencevision, and during the AS- TRONET Symposium in Poitiers, January 23–25, 2007. The aim is to improve the overview of the scientific priorities for European astronomy, and in particular to sharpen the recommendations which will be input for the development of a road map for the required infrastructure. The final version will also have improved figure captions, and proper credits and references. vi CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 The role of science in society Mankind has an innate curiosity, and a particular curiosity about the Universe. Perhaps this has arisen as an inevitable outcome of evolution: curiosity leads to exploration, to discovery, to learning, and in the most basic sense, to survival. At a higher level, societies develop and prosper through innovation, and through planning for the future. Many of the advances made by civiliza- tion in the last few centuries can be attributed to the advancement in our scientific understanding. There is, perhaps fortunately, no obvious end to this process in sight. Further scientific advances should continue to contribute to the improved quality of life for future generations in countless ways. At the same time, societies also face momentous and troubling challenges, to which scien- tists will be expected to contribute solutions. To maintain this forward momentum, Europe must continue to contribute its share to the process. It can do so by inspiring, educating, and training new scientists, and by encouraging scientific advances through investment in all forms. Happily, the conditions seem reasonably favourable for this process to continue from strength to strength. Nevertheless, complacency would be ill-founded, and there are some worrying signs. Most importantly, scientific progress relies on a continued influx of bright young scientists, but enrolment to the physical sciences has declined in recent years throughout the western world. To a large extent, young people are persuaded to embark on scientific careers because a field in which they have a potential interest is seen to be thriving. They see possibilities for exciting and rewarding careers. Major advances – whether as cures for diseases, options for cheaper energy, or technological innovations to make life more comfortable or enjoyable – all require a continuous injection of new ideas. And young people will only enter a field if it captures their imagination. Scientific literacy: the foundation of democracy. But not only budding young scientists are fas- cinated by the Universe: even though not directly involved in the process of scientific advance, a large fraction of the public finds science intriguing and wants to learn more. Demonstrating advances and satisfying this curiosity are indispensable in acknowledging and repaying society’s good will and financial support, elements so essential for its continued well being. And quite independently of their value for society, advances in scientific understanding should go hand-in- hand with
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