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Republican Control of the Senate in 1981

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Republican Control of the Senate in 1981 RIPON fOR~M COMMENTARY COMMENTARY Edward W. Brooke 2 A Heartland Strategy For 1980 2 ADDENDA AND ERRATA 4 Edward W Brooke VIEW FROM HAWKINS GORE The Innation Protection Plan 5 HOUSE ELECTIONS: he defeat of Ed Brooke for re-election to the U.S. Slow Road Back 7 Senate is a tremendous loss to progressive Repub­ T licans and to the cause of innovative problem-solving REPUBLICAN CONTROL at the national level. His narne has been associated wi th Of THE SENATE IN imaginative approaches to as broad a range of issues as any 1981: A Pipe Dream or Senator during the past dozen years, from foreign policy to a Realistic Prospect? 10 energy and urban policy. In the field of housing, where BUREAUCRACY he served as ranking minority member on the Banking, MARCHES ON 13 Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, he was responsible for the Brooke Amendment se tting a maxim um rent level fo r THE ASCENDANCY OF THE public housing tenants and for the proposal (not yet enacted) WASHINGTON LAWYER which would allow young families to save for a down pay­ AND LOBBYIST: An ment by putting funds tax free into a special account. In Unintended Result of addition, he has provided courageous leadership fo r women's Campaign Finance Reform 14 rights and on the issue of abortion. The Ri pon Society has had a close link with Senator Brooke over the years, having provided the Research Director and a number of campaign workers for his initial Senate campaign in 1966. We will miss his intelligent espousal of moderate RIPON fOR~M RepUblican ideals in the Senate and hope that a future Re­ Editor: Auhur M. lIiHlI pUblican administration will fi nd a use fo r his talents. E" ccutivc Edi tor: Steven O. Livengood Art Director; ElizDbeth Lee (The Graphic Tuna) TIlE RIPO N FORUM is published llIonthly by the Ri pon Society, Inc. In Ihe publication, the Society hopes to Illovidc a for um for fresh ideas. we ll researched Ilroposals. and a spirit of creative criticism and innov;uion in the Republican Pari}'. Manu­ scripts and IlhOtograllhs are solicited, but do not represent the views of the Society unless 50 5tated. Contents are copYlighted 0 1978 by the Ripon Society, inc., 800 18th Sueet, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006. A Second class poStage and fces paid at Washi ngton, D.C. and additional mailing offices. Heartland Strategy Subscription rates: SIS per year, S7.s0 for stud ents. service­ men, !'eace Corps. Vista and other vo lunteers. Overseas, ad d $6. Please allow five weeks for address changes. For 1980 The Rip'o n Society, Inc., John C. Topping, Jr., President, is a Republican research and policy orga nization whose members are business, academic, and profe~s i onal men and women. It is headquartered in Washington, D.C., with fifteen chap­ telS, several affiliated subchapters, and National Associate members throughout the United States. The Society is sup­ erhaps the most significant result of the 1978 elections ported by chapter dues, individ ual contributions, and reve­ from the standpoint of 1980 Presidential politics was nu es from its publications and contract work. P the success of RepUblican gubernatori al candidates 2 Ripon Forum Richard Thornburgh in Pennsylvania , Lee Dreyfus in Wis­ distance Carter would have to go to carry Indiana in 1980. consin, and Albert Quie in Minnesota_ Republicans now con­ trol governorships in the seven Great Lakes states from Penn­ Of these seven states, only in Michigan do Democrats have sylvania to Minnesota. grounds for optimism. Even though they could not defeat Republican Governor William Milliken , they toppled Senato r These seven states cast a total of 133 electoral votes, nearl y Robert Griffin and two Republican Congressme n. More­ half the number needed to win the White House. In close over, much of the 5347 pe rcent 1976 Republican Presiden­ Presidential elections since 1960, these states have been tial margin was attributable to Gerald Ford's native son closely contested, as the chart on this page makes clear. status. Despite the modest Democratic comeback in Michi­ In 1976, Jimmy Carter carried Ohio, Pennsylvania and gan, Carterites should not celebrate too vigorously. Success­ Wi sconsin by narrow margins and Walter Mondale's Minne­ fu l Democratic Senate candidate Carl Levin , senSing Carter's sota by a much heal thier margin. Carter's position in each of popularity in the Wolverine State, publicly invited the these four states has eroded significantly. President to stay home. Carter's 11 ,116 vote margin in Ohio over Gerald Ford re­ Even in a close Presidential election, it is conceivable that sulted largely from an unusual ly strong showing among Carter could lose every Great Lakes State from Pennsylvania Protestants in Southern Ohio. Since 1976, Carter's standing to Mi nnesota. This would be particularly true if the Repub­ has fallen among these voters as affinity for his born again lican Presidential ticket were selected to maximize the Christianity has given way 10 more mundane conce rn s about appeal to these battleground states. With a 133 electoral foreign policy or inflation. Carter's ace-in-the-hole to stem vote sweep of these Great Lakes Slates, Republicans need this voter attrition was a Democratic capture of the Ohio pick up only 137 more electoral votes to caplUre the White governorship. Ohio is still an old fashioned patronage state House. Implementing a Heartland Strategy, the Republi­ and there control of the gove rnor's mansion is probably cans could put particular emphasis on the Great Lakes States, worth at least one hundred thousand votes in a Presidential the Greal Plains States, and the two Upper South States of election. Lieutenant Governor Richard Celeste came close Virginia and Tennessee. but could not topple Republican Governor James Rhodes. In 1976 Carter carried Pennsylvania by only 2 percent whi le Electoral Rep . % Rep.% Rep. % the Democrats controlled the governorship. Ri chard Thorn­ Votes 1960 1968 1976 burgh has led a Republican resurge nce that extends to Con­ gress and the state legislalUre. A reinvigorated Republican GREAT LAKES Party under the leadership of Thornburgh, a Republican of Illinois 26 49.9 51.5 51 Presidential stature , should provide Carter far more of a In diana 13 55 57 54 challenge than the dispirited Keystone State GOP of 1976. Michigan 21 49 46 53 Minnesota 10 49.2 44 43 Carter's narrow victory in Wisconsin occurred when Demo­ Ohio 25 53 52.5 49.9 crats had a lock on all state offices. The resounding guberna­ Pennsylvania 27 49 48 49 torial victory of Lee Dreyfus not only deprives the Demo­ Wisconsin II 52 52 49 crats of the go vernor's manSion , it also gives the Wisconsin GOP perhaps its most inspiring leader since the elder La GREAT PLAINS Follette. Until this year, voter identification with the Wi s­ Iowa 8 57 56 51 consin GOP had been eroding. Dreyfus' victory may change Kansas 7 61 61 54 all that. Missouri 12 49.7 50.6 48 Nebraska 5 62 65 61 Until November 7, 1978 the Carter-Mondale ticket would North Dakota 3 55 59 53 have seemed unbeatable in Minnesota. The 5743 percent South Dakota 4 58 56 51 margin for the Democratic ticket in 1976 reflected both Democratic-Farmer·Labor Party dominance and the appeal UPPER SOUTH of native son Mondale. After its recent trouncing, the DFL remains in seve re disarray while Republicans should Vi rginia 12 53 57 51 have a new sense of purpose under Governor Albert Quie Tennessee 10 54 57 43 and Senators David Durenberger and Rudy Bosch witz. NOTE: Republican Percentages are of Two Party Vote Republican prospects have been bolstered in at least two of the three Great Lakes States won by Ford. Governor James The six Great Plains States of Iowa, Kansas, Missouri. Nebras· Thompson's landslide re-election victory and Senator Charles ka, North Dakota, and South Dakota cast a total of 39 elec­ Percy's convincing come·from-behind victory have solidi­ toral vo tes. Ford carried all but Missouri in 1976, but his fied Republican strength in what may now be the most Re ­ victory margin was only 2 percen t in both Iowa and South pUblican of the nation's populous industri al states. Demo­ Dakota. The Republican sweep in Iowa and the gubernator. cratic Senator Adlai Stevenson may be the next casualty of ial victory in South Dakota shore up GOP prospects in these the Ill inois Republican onslaught in 1980. For at least a two marginal states. generation, Indiana has been the most Republican of the Great Lakes States in Presidential elections. The modest Republican gubernatorial victories in 1977 in Virginia and RepUblican gains in 1978 in Indiana further underscored the 1978 in Tennessee have further bolstered RepUblican pro- November/ December 1978 3 spects in the Upper South. Tennessee and Virginia have de­ veloped a Presidential Republican voting habit. In 1976 Virginia was the only state of the Confederacy to support Addenda Ford. Carter's sweep of Tennessee was in large measure at­ tri butable to the widespread resentment at Senator Howard and Errata Baker's seemingly shabby treatment at the 1976 GOP Con­ ve ntion. If Baker is on the 1980 ticket, Tennessee and much of the Upper South and Border States could be wrested from We certainly hope that you received your '78 Election Carter. Preview Issue before election day. The issue was mailed out two weeks before election day. But somehow, the Ripoll A Heartland Strategy di rected at the Great Lakes, Great Forum , like most small magazines, ap pears to receive second Plains and Upper South states has seve ral advan tages: J) It class mail service in more ways than one when compared to builds on existing Republican strength - the GOP will control Time or Newsweek.
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