March 2014

Ready, set EXPORT Tech export overhaul brings new complexity, and also hope page 28

China’s Jade Rabbit explained, page 26 Mars or bust, page 38

A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS Suitable for all reading levels, the Library of Flight series encompasses a wide variety of general-interest and reference books, including case studies. Appropriate subjects include the history and economics of aerospace as well as design, development, and management of aircraft and space programs. FEATURED TITLES Eleven Seconds into the Unknown: A History of the Hyper-X Program Curtis Peebles 342 pages This is the highly-anticipated sequel to Peebles’ first book on the X-43A/Hyper-X project, Road to Mach 10: Lessons Learned from the X-43A Flight Research Program. A central theme of the Hyper-X story is how disparate groups and organizations became a unified team working toward a common goal.

ISBN: 978-1-60086-776-7 “Perfect for those interested in high-speed flight, aerospace List Price: $39.95 AIAA Member Price: $29.95 history, the organization and management of technological projects, and the future of spaceflight.” Skycrane: Igor Sikorsky’s Last Vision John A. McKenna 136 pages The Skycrane was the last creation of aircraft design pioneer Igor Sikorsky. In SKYCRANE: Igor Sikorsky’s Last Vision, former Sikorsky Aircraft Executive Vice President John A. McKenna traces the development of this remarkable helicopter from original concept and early sketches to standout performer for the military and private industry.

ISBN: 978-1-60086-756-9 “An inside look at the continual innovation and perseverance List Price: $39.95 AIAA Member Price: $29.95 required for the creation and development of one of the world’s most unusual helicopters.” – Michael J. Hirschberg, Managing Editor, Vertiflite magazine

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Find these books and many more at arc.aiaa.org March 2014

Page 4 DEPARTMENTS EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK 2 A heart-to-heart on space exploration. LETTER TO THE EDITOR 3 Missing ingredients in climate article. INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Billions allocated for European aerospace research. Page 26 WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Clues to causes of Asiana crash. Page 8 CONVERSATION 10 Rear Adm. Mathias Winter on going unmanned. CAREER PROFILE 16 Get involved, get ahead — one student’s plan for success. VIEWPOINT 18 Fixing U.S. education. ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 20 Saving Kepler. OUT OF THE PAST 46 Page 20

FEATURES JADE RABBIT EXPLAINED 26 China’s lunar rover mission ran into technical troubles that space experts say have put the mission at risk. by Leonard David

READY, SET, EXPORT 28 Arms trade reforms mean a big adjustment for the American aerospace industry. by Debra Werner

CHOOSE YOUR LAUNCHER 34 Page 34 Critics want a complete re-examination of U.S. launch strategy, including the multi-billion-dollar Space Launch System. by Natalia Mironova

MARS OR BUST 38 Mars exploration advocates discuss near-term prospects for sending humans to the Martian surface. by Edward Goldstein

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA News B5 Page 38

Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7577]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, Va., and at additional mailing offices. Copyright 2014 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 52, No. 3. ® is a publication of the American Institute of Editor’s Notebook Aeronautics and Astronautics

Ben Iannotta Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor A heart-to-heart on space exploration Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey Editor-at-Large My hope is that this month’s edition will spark lots of good conversation about Christine Williams the role of human explorers versus robots; our choices of exploration targets; Editor AIAA Bulletin and our investments in the launch technology that will make it all possible. I’m not so naïve that I expect a consensus on these issues. What I do Contributing Writers know is that doing great things in space will require more unity of purpose Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Leonard David, than we have today in the U.S. or internationally. Aerospace America provides Edward Goldstein, Dave Majumdar, food for thought in this month’s edition: Natalia Mironova, Erik Schecter, Debra Werner “Mars or bust,” Page 34, makes the case for sending humans to Mars, but it does so without varnishing the technical hurdles and the need to muster Jane Fitzgerald national or even international motivation for such a vast undertaking. Art Direction and Design “Choose your launcher,” Page 38, looks at the capabilities of the rockets Michael Griffin, President that will send humans into space and the political back story behind NASA’s James F. Albaugh, President-Elect proposed Space Launch System. Sandra H. Magnus, Publisher “Saving Kepler,” Page 20, explains how engineers hope to resume science Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution with the wounded planet-hunting telescope. STEERING COMMITTEE Here are some questions these articles raised for me: Steven E. Gorrell, Brigham Young University; • Is Mars really as scientifically interesting as we’re assuming? My sense Basil Hassan, Sandia; Merri Sanchez, is that humanity’s worldview would be rocked at least as much by a Sierra Nevada; Mary L. Snitch, Lockheed picture of an earthlike planet as by fossilized microbes on Mars. Our Martin; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute of investments don’t treat these goals as close to equal. The Kepler team Technology; Susan X. Ying is fighting for survival in its mission of cataloging planets. The price of EDITORIAL BOARD Kepler’s proposed successor, the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, is capped at $228 million, plus launch costs. Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, • What would happen if humanity threw in the towel on human Michael Francis, Cam Martin, exploration of deep space? It’s tempting to argue that advances in Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell autonomous computing could fill the void — that amazing discoveries ADVERTISING lie ahead if we channel billions more into this technology. There’s a Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 major flaw in that line of reasoning: Social and political considerations [email protected] can never be divorced from policy debates, as much as we might wish Russell Brody, 732.832.2977 otherwise. Investments in robotic technologies might well stagnate if [email protected] they were not tied to a long-term vision of sending humans explorers LETTERS AND CORRESPONDENCE out there to work with rovers, unmanned planes or planetary Ben Iannotta, [email protected] submarines. The point of space exploration is that we might want to go there someday — or that we might have to. QUESTIONS AND ADDRESS CHANGES • Will the need to keep up with China provide the missing motivation for [email protected] human deep space travel? Probably not. Deep space travel is going to ADVERTISING MATERIALS be so complex and expensive that no nation working alone will get Craig Byl, [email protected] very far. If the West is indeed in a geo-political competition with China, the smartest strategy would be to let China go broke trying to send hu- March 2014, Vol. 52, No. 3 mans to deep space. Rather than using space to divide, the better course would be to use it to unify.

Ben Iannotta Editor-in-Chief Letter to the Editor

Missing ingredients in climate article

Two points need to be made about alarmists in the article. They pejora- the cover story of the February issue, tively described those who dare to dis- “Target: Climate Change.” First, in an agree with them as “wacky” and article about global warming, a graph “hav[ing] the luxury of believing in of average surface temperature over ‘Santa Claus.’” Since when is it accept- the eons was conspicuously missing, able for a “scientist” to insult people in perhaps because it would reveal that such a manner? That is revealing the Earth has been warmer many about the character and methods em- times in its history than it is now and ployed by the global warming that there has been no global warming alarmists. Taylor Swanson since 1998. Second, just listen to the Tullahoma, Tenn. language used by the global warming [email protected]

All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless it is expressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject to editing for length and to author response. Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by e-mail to: [email protected]. The Vinci engine nozzle glows orange in this photo from a September 2013 test.

Snecma Events Calendar MARCH 1-8 Clarification IEEE Aerospace Conference, Big Sky, Mont. An article in the December issue, “A Contact: Erik Nilsen, 818.354.4441; erik.n.nilsen@jpl.nasa.gov; rich mix of new liquid engines,” Page www.aeroconf.org 58, should have been clearer about MARCH 12 corporate responsibilities within Eu- Congressional Visits Day, Washington, D.C. rope’s Vinci rocket engine program. Contact: Duane Hyland, [email protected] Safran’s Snecma company is develop- ing the engine in Vernon, France, un- MARCH 24-26 der contract with Airbus Defence and Forty-ninth International Symposium Space, formerly Astrium. The engines of Applied Aerodynamics, Lille, France. will be used on Ariane rockets. Contact: Anne Venables, 33 1 56 64 12 30; [email protected];

Correcting a photo credit This photo by Mark Usciak accompanied the article, “‘Moonwalking’ with Buzz Aldrin,” on page 24 of the February issue. The article ran with an incorrect photo byline.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 3 Billions allocated for European aerospace research

The European Union’s latest €79-bil- research grants have until now been available) and space (€128 million lion ($128 billion) seven-year research matched equally by industry or aca- available). The space funds will be and development spending plan, demic technology investments and used for: called the Research and Innovation confined to “pre-competitive” research • Europe’s Copernicus program, Programme Horizon 2020, started on activities, but the Horizon 2020 fund- which includes Earth observing satel- January 1. Around €6.3 billion ($10.3 ing mechanism is different. It allows lites and airborne instruments. billion) has been set aside directly for for certain single projects to be 100 • The Galileo navigation satellites transport research — road, rail and air percent funded from the EU — “except and three GPS augmentation satellites, — between 2014 and 2020, of which for innovation actions, where a 70 per- called the European Navigation Geo- €2.8 billion ($4.6 billion) will be spent cent maximum will apply for profit stationary Overlay Service. directly on aerospace research. This is making entities,” according to Euro- • Protecting satellites and objects a 40-percent increase in the previous pean Commission guidelines. The re- on Earth from asteroids and other seven-year EU transport research pro- search activities are to cover the full space debris. gram — Framework Program Seven — research value chain, from developing • Promoting the competitiveness which was completed at the end of basic principles to building advanced of the European space sector. 2013, according to ADS, the U.K. technology demonstrators. Aerospace, Defence, Security and One of the main direct beneficiar- Visualizing helicopter Space industries trade association. ies of Horizon 2020 will be partners in the Clean Sky 2 research pro- noise gram, which aims to reduce avi- Researchers from the German Aero- ation-related carbon dioxide space Center DLR report they have de- emissions by 50 percent, nitro- veloped a new imaging system to gen oxide emissions by 80 per- track the vortices around rotor blades, cent and perceived noise levels a phenomenon responsible for most by 50 percent over 2011 levels, helicopter vibration and noise. all by 2020. This will be done This is the first time it will be pos- through building flying test-beds sible to visualize the main cause of of more fuel-efficient technolo- what makes helicopters so noisy in gies — for large passenger air- the air, according to a statement from craft, regional airliners and fast the DLR in early January and data in- rotorcraft. Further operational cluded in a January 2014 research pa- integrated technology demon- per, “Blade tip vortex detection in ma- Eurocopter strators covering airframes, en- neuvering flight using the Background Europe's Horizon 2020 initiative will support efforts to test gines and aircraft systems sec- Oriented Schlieren technique.” more fuel efficient aircraft like the Eurocopter X3. tors will also be funded. “Validation data obtained with this Clean Sky 2 will cost Euro- new method will allow for improved Space research will receive €1.9 pean industry €4 billion to implement vortex wake predictions with numeri- billion of EU funds, while further sup- over the next seven years, with a fur- cal codes,” says Professor Markus Raf- port will go to aerospace companies ther €1.8 billion to be provided from fel, who heads the Department of Hel- and research organizations working in Horizon 2020 funding, according to icopters at DLR’s Goettingen facility. related research areas such as security, Eric Dautriat, executive director of the When a rotor blade slices through development of micro- and nano-tech- Clean Sky 2 research consortium, air, air rushes around the tip due to nologies, advanced materials and ad- speaking at a conference in November the pressure, and the result is a con- vanced manufacturing. Research into in Brussels. centrated vortex behind the tip. Noise alternative fuels for aviation will be Companies and research organiza- is produced when the next rotor blade funded under the Secure, Clean and Ef- tions have until April to get their bids collides with this vortex. ficient Energy research category; high- in for the first €7.8 billion of EU re- Measuring the scale and dynamic risk research will fall within the Future search funds, to be awarded this year structure of these vortices in meaning- and Emerging Technologies area. in areas such as nano-technologies ful detail has been a big challenge. European Commission technology and advanced materials (€500 million “Huge national and multi-national

4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 son between the vortices recorded and the control inputs from the pilot. The ultimate aim of the research is to develop new blade shapes or mod- ified rotor controls that enable a re- duction in blade tip vortices and their interaction with the blades trailing be- hind. “This would help helicopter manufacturers to compare various ro- tor blades under realistic conditions and to select the quieter option,” says André Bauknecht, leader of the cur- rent experiments at Braunschweig. As a result, there will be new opportuni- ties to make future helicopters quieter and more comfortable, according to the DLR. Turning point for long- DLR haul, low-cost airlines? Rotor blade vortices and exhaust are visible in this Background Oriented Schlieren image, a technique Thai AirAsia X, Jetstar and NokScoot pioneered by German researchers. plan to open new routes from Thai- land this year, in the latest sign of bur- projects all over the world focus on research helicopter flew over fields geoning competition in the nascent rotor wake vortex measurement in near Salzgitter and Braunschweig long-haul, low-cost airline market in wind tunnels, but these do not allow while researchers in a microlight air- Asia. for the measurement of maneuvering craft acquired images from above the Airlines around the world have yet flight conditions, which are of great helicopter. In a more recent test, the to produce any long-term successes in importance,” says Raffel. “Helicopter BO 105 descended into a quarry and their efforts to simplify services to rotor wakes cannot yet sufficiently be the pilot performed a number of rock- their essentials and create a new low- predicted by numerical methods.” ing maneuvers in a confined space cost market for long flights, analysts Using a new visualization tech- while the loose scree littering the ex- say. But new aircraft, new in-flight nique, DLR researchers say they have cavated rock face served as a back- services and a better understanding of been able to record and measure a drop. Ten cameras set up at various how to compete with entrenched full- substantial proportion of an in-flight angles yielded images of such quality fare airlines are leading to the estab- helicopter’s rotor blade during differ- that a substantial proportion of the in- lishment of a new generation of long- ent phases of flight. flight helicopter’s rotor blade vortices haul, low-cost carriers, say analysts. The visualization technique is could be visualized in three dimen- “Long-haul low-fare airlines have based on the method called Back- sions, according to the DLR in a press had limited success so far, but things ground Oriented Schlieren, meaning statement. could be changing: Carriers such as “streaks” in German. This technique “Currently we are aiming the Norwegian are taking advantage of measures the refraction of light caused three-dimensional reconstruction of a passengers’ willingness to accept less by fluctuations in air density, as on hot vortex system from multi-scopic two- comfort in return for lower fares and summer days when the air above a dimensional BOS [Background Ori- are building a long-haul network to section of the road seems to shiver. ented Schlieren] data from 10 cam- the U.S. and Middle East,” says Ian But this is observable only against a eras,” says Raffel. “This will allow for Lowden, director at Infrata, an interna- suitable background. In 2013, DLR sci- the reconstruction of the three-dimen- tional transport consultancy in Lon- entists conducted experiments to sional vortex system of a full-scale hel- don. “Improved seat technology and record images of blade vortices icopter operated under unsteady flight in-flight entertainment have made against several different backgrounds. conditions out of ground effect.” economy long haul almost as much During one test, a Swiss Air Force The next round of flight tests tak- fun as flying on carriers such as Eti- Cougar helicopter maneuvered in ing place in June of this year involve had, Emirates and British Airways, and front of a rocky background in the fitting helicopters with measurement these product improvements should Alps. In other tests, a German BO 105 equipment, enabling a direct compari- now work for all-economy flights.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 5 pore Airlines, and Jetstar by Qantas — creating new “hybrid” low-cost airlines that can access the connecting services of their parent companies. “I think the hybridization process, coupled with the very low fare tendencies of many Asian users, will see de facto long-haul low-cost principles applied across the market in the next five years — regard- less of how the airline is classified,” says Peter Harbison, executive chair- man of the Centre for Asia Pacific Avi- ation, based in Sydney, Australia. AirAsia Berhad “For both short haul and long haul, the lines between low-cost carri- ers and network carriers is continuing to merge, especially in markets that are more developed in terms of air services,” says Mark Clarkson, com- mercial director at London-based air- line analysts OAG. “Arguably, the ma- jor LCCs [low-cost carriers] can no longer be termed as such, and the ter- minology is increasingly redundant as the need for network and market share growth dictate that a greater fo- cus on a wider spectrum of passenger (and therefore product) segments is Jetstar Asia Airlines required.” But the story is slightly different on Atlantic routes, where recent startup Norwegian Air — with three Boeing 787s in operation and another seven on order — is pioneering the concept of low-cost long haul. Air Canada’s rouge subsidiary has also started to test out the concept, but many airline analysts expect that, should the Asian long-haul airlines survive and prosper, a number of Eu- ropean and U.S. short-range, low-cost carriers will be encouraged to enter the long-haul market and launch serv- Scoot Pte Ltd ices over the next 18 months — just as passenger traffic is returning to Thai AirAsia X, Jetstar and NokScoot plan to open new routes from Thailand this year, in the latest sign growth in North America and Europe. of competition in the nascent long-haul, low-cost airline market in Asia. Michael O’Leary, the chief executive of Ryanair — a short-haul low-cost car- With roomier, more comfortable has 10 Airbus A350-900s on order; rier based in Ireland — said in October cabins and increasing connectivity for Scoot has 20 Boeing 787s ordered; Jet- at the U.K. Airport Operators Associa- all classes of passengers, the Boeing star has three Boeing 787-8s in opera- tion conference that he wanted to 787 and Airbus A350 have opened the tion already and another 11 on order. start long-haul low-cost services door for a new type of competition in This time there are several reasons within the next three to four years but long haul. Over the past 18 months, to believe these carriers will succeed – was being hampered by a lack of de- new long-haul, low-cost carriers have mainly because many are backed by livery slots for the Boeing 787. established themselves in Asia and are established network carriers. NokScoot Philip Butterworth-Hayes building up substantial fleets. AirAsia X is owned by Thai Airways and Singa- [email protected]

6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 14-140 2014 Merrie [email protected] pleasevisitwww.aiaa.org/gala2014For reservations, orcontact please visit:www.womeninaerospace.org. worldwide.Formoreinformation, women andmenintheaerospaceindustry to host Aerospace2014,aday-longconferenceonissues ofimportance Also, wearepleasedtocoordinatewithWomen inAerospace(WIA)asthey careers. encouraging andfacilitatingyoungprofessionalstopursueaerospace-related College Scientists(ARCS®)Foundation,asweallshareacommoninterestin (SSPI)andtheAchievementRewardsfor Satellite ProfessionalsInternational withtheFutureSpaceLeadersFoundation(FSLF)Societyof partnership Host ayoungprofessional a atyourtable.AIAAhasformed t
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Join usaswehonortherecipientsoffollowingawards: living. everyday national usesofairandspace,totheinventivenewapplicationsthatenhance more connected,prosperous—fromthemajormissionsthatreinventour professionals arerecognizedfortheircontributionstomakingtheworldsafer, AIAA ignitesandcelebratesingenuitycollaborationensuresaerospace and seating will be administered solely by AIAA in and seatingwillbeadministeredsolely byAIAAin directives. Government guest selection, invitation, guestselection,invitation, directives. Government for Excellence AIAA FoundationAward Reed AeronauticsAward Goddard AstronauticsAward Fellows Honorary Newly ElectedFellowsand This event is organized according to government This eventisorganizedaccordingto government RonaldReaganBuildingandInternationalTrade Center Aerospace Spotlight Aerospace 1300 PennsylvaniaAve NW, Washington, DC accordance with government policy.accordance withgovernment Dinner andAwards beginat1930hrsintheAtrium Awards Reception beginsat1830hrsintheOculus Attire is Black Tie or Military Equivalent Attire isBlackTie orMilitary Wednesday, 30April2014 t
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Daniel GuggeheimMedal AwardDistinguished Service Award Public Service CooperationAwardInternational Gala Clues to causes of Asiana crash

The final report on the cause of the with flight crew teamwork — known in data on airplane performance much July crash of Asiana Flight 214 in San industry parlance as crew resource more than they look at the flight mode Francisco is due to be issued at mid- management. annunciation,” she said during a De- year by NTSB — the National Trans- The NTSB’s hearing, held at its cember 11 webcast of the hearing. portation Safety Board. Its findings conference center in Washington, Indeed, much of the early part of haven’t been revealed, but if it reflects D.C., brought together experts from the hearing focused on how Capt. Lee the testimony of investigators at a De- Boeing, training specialists from gov- Kang Kuk, who was flying the Boeing cember hearing on the subject, it will ernment and industry, scientists and 777 200ER at the time of the accident, suggest that pilot error and poor com- emergency personnel in an attempt to had inadvertently deactivated the air- munication among the flight crew get at the root cause of the accident. liner’s auto-throttle, which holds a were to blame. FAA Chief Scientist Kathy Abbott preselected airspeed. The accident, which claimed three was among the experts called to tes- But the auto-throttle was not the lives and injured 181 people, has tify at the courtroom-like proceedings. only pilot aid that played a role in the shaken up the airline industry. The en- She said that airline pilots tend not to crash. The sequence of events began suing investigation has shone a light pay enough attention to their com- because the glide-slope portion of San on airline pilots’ over-reliance on puter’s flight management mode. Francisco International Airport’s in- cockpit automation, and on problems Their tendency is to “monitor the raw strument landing system was not

Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crash landed in San Francisco in July.

National Transportation Safety Board 8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 working. The glide-slope transmitter Many modern aircrews rely almost Coming soon: A secret sends a radio beam to the plane’s exclusively on an aircraft’s flight man- cockpit to let pilots know they are agement system. The problem is espe- report on nuclear missiles coming down at the proper angle. Be- cially prevalent in parts of the world While personnel scandals in the Air cause of the malfunction, the pilots where many aviators have less robust Force’s Minuteman 3 nuclear missile had to fly the airliner onto the runway flying experience than pilots in the enterprise have grabbed headlines in manually. This should not have posed U.S. have, Mackey says. recent months, the future of the aging a problem that day, which was clear This overreliance on automation is weapon system itself is quietly under- with light winds. acute — some pilots have stopped going scrutiny. But things went badly wrong. The watching their plane’s airspeed during A classified review examining 777 came in at an angle that was far their instrument scan, says Mackey. modernization options for the inter- shallower than normal. The aircraft Traditionally, a pilot would monitor continental ballistic missile is due to also was flying far more slowly than it airspeed and altitude like a hawk, es- be completed in June, says Kathryn was supposed to and at a far lower al- pecially during takeoff and landing, Blais, a spokeswoman for Air Force titude. As a result, the jet crashed into where stalls are more likely to occur. Global Strike Command. a seawall short of the runway. The im- In fact, Weber notes, in the case of The study, formally known as the pact tore off the plane’s tail, its en- Asiana 214, the aircrew not only had Ground Based Strategic Deterrent gines and parts of its landing gear. As inadvertently deactivated the auto- analysis of alternatives, is assessing a the aircraft skidded down the runway, throttle but also had failed to notice potential replacement or upgrade for it rotated 330 degrees on its belly and that the plane was approaching the the inventory of 450 Minuteman 3s. eventually caught fire. stall speed. NTSB investigator Bill Eng- The weapons, first deployed in 1970, The December hearing further so- lish noted that the 777’s throttle was are housed in underground silos at lidified what many aviation industry set at idle power even as the aircraft three Air Force bases: Malmstrom in safety experts were expecting — that continued to lose airspeed — slowing Montana, Minot in North Dakota and the South Korean crew had made a to some 37 knots below the 137-knot F.E. Warren in Wyoming. Blais says the number of crucial errors both in basic target speed. By the time the pilots re- study “has not been affected” by alle- airmanship and crew resource man- alized their error, it was too late, but gations that some Minuteman officers agement, for several reasons. their reaction was also incorrect, We- cheated on proficiency tests and pos- Chief among these was that pilot ber says. Instead of flying their aircraft, sessed illegal drugs. Lee Kang Kuk — who was undergoing the pilots attempted to correct the The Air Force says the roughly 18- his “check ride” to qualify on the 777 problem via the flight management meter-long Minuteman 3 “currently — was uncomfortable landing the air- system. (Continued on page 13) craft manually, says aviation safety Crew resource management, a U.S. Air Force consultant Hans Weber, president of problem in many previous crashes, ap- San Diego-based Tecop International. pears to have been a significant factor Moreover, the pilot ignored cues from in this one, says Mackey. Weber says the aircraft’s instruments as well as the hierarchical structure of South Ko- warnings from other crewmembers rean culture may have prevented the that the 777 was approaching its stall instructor pilot and the relief pilot sit- speed. By the time the pilot recog- ting in the cockpit from speaking out nized his error, it was already too late more forcefully. In fact, transcripts from to save the aircraft. the cockpit show that one of the pilots But flying a plane manually is a — most likely Bong Dongwon — tried to basic skill that is learned from the first warn the pilot flying that the plane was day of pilot training. So the obvious sinking much faster than it should. question is, how could this have hap- But this phenomenon is not pened? The problem is that the hand- unique to Korea — the U.S. airline in- flying skills of many commercial pi- dustry also had a hierarchal culture lots have declined because of the during the 1950s and 1960s but has high level of automation on modern evolved since then, after a number of jetliners like the 777 or Airbus A330, accidents forced a change in training says Keith Mackey of Mackey Interna- methodology, Mackey says. tional, a Florida-based aviation safety Dave Majumdar The U.S. is weighing upgrades or consultancy. [email protected] replacements to Minuteman 3 missiles.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 9 Engineering the revolution

For unmanned planes to change naval aviation forever, they’ll need to meet lofty requirements without busting budgets. Rear Adm. Mathias Winter is determined to put the U.S. Navy on that path in his role as program executive officer for unmanned aircraft and strike weapons.

Systems demonstrator program was flight deck, isn’t it useless to the Rear Adm. “Mat” Winter has a big established. Navy? job. He must acquire unmanned When we say the Navy, it really I wouldn’t say useless, but part of aircraft that are so safe and was the [Defense] Department realiz- that carrier environment is the launch ing that the future capabilities in the air and recovery onboard our aircraft car- affordable that the Navy’s domain could greatly benefit from the riers. When we took X-47 to their car- warfighting brass will jump at advantages of what unmanned avia- rier, we were demonstrating not only the chance to incorporate them tion brings to the table in terms of per- its ability and feasibility to operate, but sistence, in terms of flexibility, in terms we were also confirming and updating into fleet operations. That includes of dollars per flight hour. The X-47B our models, our simulations, our test combat and intelligence flights was selected to be the demonstrator and evaluation processes and growing from the decks of aircraft carriers, that the Department would pursue to a whole new way of doing verification a last bastion of the Navy’s explore, understand, discover: Can we and validation of unmanned systems. actually take a full-scale unmanned air We don’t have a lot of deep knowl- dashing, white scarf flyers. vehicle [and] make it a part of a truly edge and experience on unmanned Winter was aboard the USS feasible, operationally relevant un- systems verification and validation. George H.W. Bush carrier last manned system and execute appropri- The X-47 doing the 26 different land- year when the X-47B combat ate mission context activities? ings, touch-and-goes, catapults, ar- rested landings, wave-offs, circles — demonstrator made its first What happened to the joint program what we call “pattern work” — allowed takeoffs and arrested landings, with the Air Force? us to truly verify and validate that our feats he compares to the Navy’s Then, [through] what I call the technical approach, our testing verifi- volatility, the uncertainty, complexities cation strategies and our ability to do first shipboard flights in 1910 and and ambiguities of the Department of this with other unmanned systems is 1911. But like any wise pioneer Defense budget and funding of our going to be realistic and affordable. of unmanned craft, Winter legislative process, the X-47 became the Navy Unmanned Combat Air Sys- What more can you learn from the knows not to use the “R” word — tem, and the Navy continued to large- X-47B at this point? replacement. He spoke to Dave sized unmanned carrier aircraft capa- There is still verification to be Majumdar in his office near the bility. Obviously the Air Force gained by flying the X-47 and doing banks of the Chesapeake Bay. wouldn’t pursue carrier-based. So the catapults and arrested landings and demonstration objectives were clear making sure that our precision naviga- and crisp, with a focus on demonstrat- tion algorithms, our autonomous soft- ing the feasibility of operating a tacti- ware algorithm architecture, and our cal size unmanned air vehicle in the deck handling communications and al- dynamic, harsh, unquestionably the gorithms are valid and all of those are What prompted the Navy to embark most electromagnetic and sea-en- transportable to any air vehicle. I usu- on this path of developing a carrier- gaged environment that the Navy op- ally say the air vehicle is a USB stick based unmanned aircraft? erates in. Can we do that? You’ve been and that the USB [port] we want to be It wasn’t the Navy per se. Back in out on that ship with us. You’ve seen able to bring it to is an aircraft carrier. around 2004-2005, the Quadrennial the benefits and the challenges, the Defense Review identified the need opportunities, and some other issues What are the next steps for the for persistent long-range unmanned that we’ve had to embrace. X-47B program? aviation capability. And in that, the We will also expand the dynamic Air Force and the Navy joined forces Without being able to show that it environment. We will fly X-47 in much and the Joint Unmanned Combat Air can be integrated with the carrier more demanding wind-over-deck, sea

10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 Interview by Dave Majumdar states and other environmental condi- taxiing [unmanned planes]. We’re go- domain, persistence allows capability tions. We did enough to convince our- ing to do that. We are going to start to to be present when other capabilities selves that we’ve got something that mature and discover and understand cannot. So what we have put together can work, but we have to continue to the best way to do CONOPS — con- for aviation is a top-level multi-tiered do that. cept of operations — of manned and unmanned aviation strategy, which is We also plan this summer — later unmanned aviation in the carrier envi- a complementary, manned and un- this year — to do cooperative opera- ronment. That’s very important. manned capability strategy for Broad tions of manned carrier aircraft and Area Maritime Surveillance — that’s our the X-47B. As you’ll recall, what you Why does the Navy need an aircraft Triton, BAMS-D, and the P-8 together. saw out on the ship was the X-47B like the UCLASS [unmanned carrier It’s in our tactical realm [with] our Fire launching and recovering. The F/A-18 launched airborne surveillance and Scout, MQ-8s, with our H-60s on our chase airplane [was] there for safety. strike]? Littoral Combat Ships. And into our You didn’t see everybody taxiing I’ll sum it up in one word — it’s carrier environments, it’s our UCLASS the manned aircraft while they’re also persistence. In the unmanned aviation with our manned carrier air wings.

Rear Adm. Mathias Winter with the X-47B.

U.S. Navy AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 11 This is not just happenstance. This warfighter requirements into what we who translates the warfighter require- is a thought-out deliberate strategy as call a systems specification, that ade- ments into affordable, executable pro- we look at what we do on the carrier quately ensures that when you take gram plans that we can deliver that ca- and the carrier strike groups: power that specification and design some- pability from that warfighter projection to fight the fight; and it’s for- thing, it gives you the warfighter re- requirement. I have my personal ward deployed presence for humani- quirements. thoughts on warfighter requirements, tarian, show the flag and deterrence. Take for example that tactically but in a media interview, if [the] ques- significant range 24/7 ISR off the car- tion you want to answer is “why the How does the UCLASS fit into the car- rier that – I just said that in about 12 set of requirements,” then it’s impor- rier air wing? seconds – and you can say that’s five tant to go to the OPNAV [Office of the The unmanned system fits like a requirements. That will explode into Chief of Naval Operations] staff. Now glove to provide that carrier strike somewhere around a thousand design the UCLASS warfighter requirement group persistent ISR [intelligence, sur- attributes, such as how fast, how high, has tactically significant ranges for ISR veillance and reconnaissance], situa- what vibration level, what humidity and medium- to long-range strike ca- tional awareness and continuity of op- and salinity of the air do you want? pabilities. They’re in that requirement. erational picture. UCLASS will be These are the things we need to un- So the warfighter requirement, all of providing that persistent 24/7 organic derstand, because if you had some- that is translated down into the draft to situational awareness to the strike thing that was not capable of operat- the spec. Proposals have to be able to group commander. ing in a maritime environment, and be compliant to all of that, so I’m not That’s what it’s going to be. That’s delaminated or corroded too fast, it’s going to talk about threat scenarios, its primary role as it’s been laid out to- not suitable. That’s why it’s important. countries, that type of thing. day. In the technology development The design requirements have been phase, we are going to mature the refined. The warfighter requirements Where does this all go eventually, technology and make sure that we can have been stable and solid, so we’re looking past UCLASS? Could this po- do that capability. But the fleet is also ensuring that we are getting those de- tentially fundamentally alter the going to operate it, and they may say, sign requirements right. shape of naval aviation? “We do need ISR at that level, but we In the PDRs – preliminary design The integration of an unmanned also might need aerial tanking.” We requirements – review with the ven- carrier system into the carrier strike might need it to do something we dors, we are making sure that we’ve group is revolutionary. This isn’t just don’t know. [not] translated them potentially into a the next-generation helicopter or next- That’s what a technology devel- non-coherent set of design require- generation strike fighter. This is a new opment phase affords us – the oppor- ments. We don’t think we’ve done capability. It is along the lines of when tunity to understand the best way to that, but we want to make sure we get [Eugene] Ely did his first cat and trap. utilize this. There is no vision or inten- it right. This is historic. We are writing the his- tion in the Department of the Navy to The focus on this program is very tory books for the next century. transition to a fully unmanned aviation intense, and it provides us the oppor- The aircraft carriers we have today domain. We will always deploy, we tunity to get leadership help. But we and the Ford that we’re about to chris- will always fight [with] manned and also have to make sure that we do it ten and bring forward will be around unmanned capabilities. right. The design requirements [are for literally 50 to 100 to 150 years. Car- getting] the final refinement over the rier aviation will be around for a while, Are the requirements more or less next two weeks, and we will go back and when you look at our current foot- settled at this point? and brief the assistant secretary of the print of carrier aircraft, and the next There are multiple different kinds Navy, Mr. [Sean] Stackley, in the mid- generations – the JSF, the E-2D, and of requirements, and the two require- dle of the February timeframe. And we the Growler, and so forth – those air- ment bins that are absolutely essential will get the senior leadership review craft and those capabilities will be to understand the difference [are] of that to make sure that we’ve gotten around for 50 to 100 years. There is no warfighter requirements and the de- it right. When we get it right, we will intention again to have unmanned avi- sign requirements. I want to make have a two-week time period before ation and unmanned aircraft on the sure it’s clear here. we believe we’ll be able to release the flight decks only and nothing else. But The warfighter requirements for draft RFP. I am not going to give you a the UCLASS is a program, and we will the UCLASS had been stable and have date, because I can’t give you a date. go forward and we will integrate not changed. The CNO’s [chief of UCLASS with its ISR, potential tanking, naval operations] capability develop- What do you say to those critics who and its limited strike capability as the ment document, CDD, was signed out have said the UCLASS requirements complementary force-multiplier per- last spring and has not changed. What are not strenuous enough in terms of sistent capability that will ensure the the acquisition community is man- long-range strike? carrier strike group mission is even dated to do is to translate those I’m the acquisition professional more effective than it is today.

12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 (Continued from page 9)

provides a robust deterrent,” but that an our effort … in this nuclear deterrent A Minuteman 3 during a test launch enhancement or successor will be strategy.” from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. needed to maintain that capability, ac- The Minuteman is the land-based cording to a September report by leg of the U.S. strategic nuclear deter- the Government Accountability Office. rent, or “triad,” which also includes Options include a new guidance system submarine-launched ballistic missiles for the existing missile, and a new fixed- and long-range bomber aircraft. Re- site or mobile missile, the GAO says. placements for the aging bombers and The Air Force does not plan to re- subs are in the early planning stages. lease the study team’s report publicly Whether the nation can afford to because it will contain sensitive infor- modernize all three legs — or even mation. Yet to be determined, how- needs to in the post-Cold War era — ever, is whether the Obama adminis- will likely be a topic of intense debate tration’s fiscal year 2016 budget in Washington. But Hagel insisted that request will reflect a decision on the U.S. should keep updating the which modernization approach to triad, because “unfortunately, the pursue, says Blais. world is very dangerous” and “it’s go- Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel un- ing to stay dangerous. And we’re go- derscored the importance of the re- ing to [have to] continue to … count view by mentioning it during a Janu- on a strong, second-to-none nuclear ary visit to F.E. Warren. Hagel told deterrent.” airmen there that “we are continuing Marc Selinger to invest our focus and our time and [email protected] U.S. Air Force

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Fundamentals of Aircraft and Airship Design, Volume 2 – Airship Design and Case Studies

Grant E. Carichner and Leland M. Nicolai April 2013, 984 pages, Hardback ISBN: 978-1-60086-898-6 List Price: $119.95 AIAA Member Price: $89.95

About the Book Fundamentals of Aircraft and Airship Design, Volume 2 —Airship Design and Case Studies examines a modern conceptual design of both airships and hybrids and features nine behind-the-scenes case studies. It will benefit graduate and upper-level undergraduate students as well as practicing engineers.

The authors address the conceptual design phase comprehensively, for both civil and military airships, from initial consideration of user needs, material selection, and structural arrangement to the decision to iterate the design one more time. The book is the only available source of design instruction on single-lobe airships, multiple-lobe hybrid airships, and balloon configurations; on solar- and gasoline-powered airship systems, human-powered aircraft, and no-power aircraft; and on estimates of airship/ hybrid aerodynamics, performance, propeller selection, S&C, and empty weight.

The book features numerous examples, including designs for airships, hybrid airships, and a high-altitude balloon; nine case studies, including SR-71, X-35B, B-777, HondaJet, Hybrid Airship, Daedalus, Cessna 172, T-46A, and hang gliders; and full- color photographs of many airships and aircraft.

About the Authors GRANT E. CARICHNER’S 48-year career at the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works includes work on SR-71, M-21, L-1011 Transport, Black ASTOVL, JASSM missile, stealth targets, Quiet Supersonic Platform, ISIS high-altitude airship, and hybrid airships. He was named “Inventor of the Year” in 1999 for the JASSM missile vehicle patent. He also holds design patents for hybrid airship configurations. He is an AIAA Associate Fellow.

LELAND M. NICOLAI received his aerospace engineering degrees from the University of Washington (BS), the University of Oklahoma (MS), and the University of Michigan (PhD). His aircraft design experience includes 23 years in the U.S. Air Force, retiring as a Colonel, and 32 years in industry. He is an AIAA Fellow and recipient of the AIAA Aircraft Design Award and the Lockheed Martin Aero Star President’s Award. He is currently a Lockheed Martin Fellow at the Skunk Works.

“Leland Nicolai and Grant Carichner have succeeded in providing a cutting-edge two-volume aircraft design text and reference addressing probably the most productive modes of air transportation: fixed-wing aircraft and the promising low-speed hybrid cargo airship.” – Dr. Bernd Chudoba, The University of Texas at Arlington

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Get involved, get ahead — a case study for success Claudia Corcho is a sophomore at the University of Florida. She’s on the Rocket Team Get advice >> The first time I went to and the Small Satellite Design Club. She helps organize hackathons. She’s treasurer of my [academic] adviser, I was like, tell me what classes I need to take, and I the university’s Chi Sigma IO group for aspiring national security professionals. She’s an was done. The next time — my fresh- active AIAA member. She scours the scholarship scene for support and will go into her man year, second semester — I wanted career with a good chunk of her degree covered. That includes $2,000 received last to see if there were different organiza- November as the first recipient of the Pete Rustan Courage to Innovate Scholarship. tions that I just didn’t know about. It Like Rustan, Corcho is an immigrant from Cuba, and she hopes to one day work at the turns out that UF had this website National Reconnaissance Office, where Rustan was a senior manager and UF alumnus. where you can look up every single, Corcho’s active life is no accident. It’s part of a purposeful strategy tied to her career possible organization. goals. She spoke with Ben Iannotta. Get involved >> Every time I talk to a Ben Iannotta [email protected] recruiter or a professor, I’m asking Photo by William A. England/The Independent Florida Alligator them for tips on things I can do to im- prove my resume, and the first thing they always tell me is experience. I Claudia Corcho’s fascination haven’t applied for any internships with space began at age 5, yet, because I’m a sophomore and I when she first watched haven’t taken any hardcore engineer- a televised rocket launch. ing classes to really get a good intern- ship. So I figured the best way to start getting experience would be to join competitions. And I started out with the Small Satellite Design Club, be- cause they build satellites and that’s al- ways what I’ve been most interested in. From there, I learned about the Rocket Team, and that they build rockets. I joined that team too. It’s stressful at times combined with all the school work I have to do, to be in- volved in so many competitions, but to me it feels like that’s the best thing I can do with my spare time. I feel like I almost learn more from being in those competitions than I even do in some of my classes.

Find scholarships >> I think the best thing most students can do to begin with is see if there are any local schol- arships from where they live, because those are usually a lot easier to get than national ones. Most of the schol- arships I have I got from local Lions and local Kiwanis organizations, be- cause they probably get to know you more.

Be open minded >> I’ve come to learn the hard way that even though you have a lot of plans, sometimes things don’t work out the way you

16 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 want. So, even though I think I want Not just for men >> In all the organi- to work at the National Reconnais- zations that I am involved with there sance Office and I think I want to are very few women. To be honest it work with satellites, I’m trying to just can be a little intimidating sometimes, learn a whole bunch of different but I definitely think that is part of things. I don’t want to be close- what makes engineering interesting minded. I want to learn about a for me. I have to step out of my com- whole lot of different fields in the fort zone constantly. I do believe that aerospace industry and things I can women can bring a different insight do in case satellites just doesn’t work and perspective into engineering that or I find something more interesting. can lead to innovative ideas. Women are definitely underrepresented in en- Try related fields >> The [hackathon] gineering, but if any girl wants to get competition is basically where you into the field I highly encourage her Journal of have to bring your own computer, and to, because she can bring new things you have to be able, through pro- to the table that can be used to target gramming, to decipher codes. I per- more consumers. Who better to de- AeAerospaceospace sonally didn’t write any of the codes, sign something meant for women than because there’s a bunch of computer a woman herself. engineering majors here who know Informrmation how to do this stuff better than I do. Trust your inspiration >> I just re- But I did attend the event and at- member looking at the TV screen [at tempted to decipher some of those age 5] and seeing this launch, and I Systems things. I helped organize it and bring was just mesmerized by it. After see- in various speakers. ing that launch, every time I would go to the library I would always pick up Beat math phobia >> Math is not books on airplanes or rockets, any- something that can be done just once thing NASA-related. Now Accepting and then it applies to everything else. Submissions on The more problems I practice the Stretch yourself >> We presented at more confident I get that I can work the AIAA conference last year in North them out. There really is no easy way Carolina [about] everything we did arc.aiaa.org of getting over math phobia. All engi- with the high altitude balloon [devel- neers can do is practice until it makes oped to test sensors for a planned sense because it is not a subject that small satellite]. I got to get up there we can avoid. I will be using math for and talk, which I wasn’t used to, but the rest of my life, and the more com- I’m trying to get out of my comfort fortable I get with it in college the eas- zone. ier it will be later to implement it into my career. Stay informed >> I actually learned about becoming an AIAA member through the Small Satellite Design Club, because the project leader for the high altitude balloon project I have to wanted to present our findings at the “ student conference, and in order to step out of present at the conference I had to be- my comfort zone come a national student member. It ended up being very beneficial, be- constantly. cause now I can read Aerospace —Claudia Corcho ” America and the daily newsletters, which keep me up to date with things in the aerospace field.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 17 Fixing U.S education

Aerospace engineer Amir S. Gohardani has seen the U.S. education system up close as a graduate researcher and educator at the University of Arizona and the University of Florida. He holds five degrees, including a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering. Having emigrated to the U.S. from Sweden, he now has a personal stake in a vibrant American aerospace sector. He offers some ideas for how to improve the American system.

lobal competition has transformed the port Card for 2013 was worrying too. Just 36 Gaerospace domain. China’s Chang’e 3 percent of 8th grade boys and 35 percent of robotic spacecraft achieved its objective on girls scored proficient on the math assess- the nation’s very first attempt to conduct a ment. Just 31 percent of 8th grade boys and landing on an extraterrestrial body. India 42 percent of 8th grade girls scored proficient has a scientific probe headed to the red on the reading assessment. Scores have been planet under its Mars Orbiter Mission. With improving since 1990, but not enough to an increasing number of spacefaring na- keep pace with competing nations. tions and an unprecedented investment in One factor could be that students con- aerospace activities, U.S. leadership in this tinue to get a later start in the U.S. than in domain is no longer a given. Leadership other nations. The U.S. currently ranks 28th will require reconsideration of key ele- among the OECD nations with regard to ments of the country’s education system. the enrollment rates of 4-year-olds in early Why is it necessary to re-consider a learning. Investments in early education are system that has hitherto proved successful still pending. at turning out aerospace innovators? The Somewhat ironically, despite it all, short and concise answer to this specific graduate aerospace programs remain a question is summarized in one single noun: magnet for international students, which is change. Countries around the world are im- a tribute to the American culture of free- proving the education of their populations, dom and reputation for aerospace excel- and the U.S. must continue to make posi- lence and innovation. These students pro- tive educational changes too if it wants to vide a positive learning influence at retain its aerospace leadership. universities, and they experi- To be sure, there has been ence a very different culture much progress in the U.S. over VIEWPOINT than that which they came the decades. By 2010, Ameri- By Amir S. Gohardani from. But in the end, most of cans led the nations of the these students will either OECD, the Organisation for choose to go home or will be Economic Co-operation and Development, required to do so, and they will take their in average years of education. Americans skills and knowledge with them. This reported receiving an averaged 13.46 years emerging trend is underappreciated. These of schooling, followed by Sweden with students have a positive impact, but they 13.40 years. cannot form the engine for future U.S. aero- Years of schooling are not all that mat- space success. What is the answer? It would Amir S. Gohardani is an ters, however. Educational performance and be a mistake to artificially limit foreign stu- aerospace engineering man- the pace of improvements must be consid- dent participation, because this would ager at L’Garde of Orange ered against what is happening in compet- harm the learning environment. Instead, County, Calif. He is the project manager for a ing nations. By that metric, there is much ways must be found to equip and encour- national security initiative reason for alarm, and noticeably not just in age more U.S. permanent resident students as well as for an unrelated terms of math and science but for reading to participate in these higher level pro- orbital debris project, and he is a contributor to the skills too. Since 2009, American 15-year-olds grams together with international students. Sunjammer Solar Sail Tech- have slipped from 25th to 31st place in Curricula and teaching techniques need nology Demonstration math performance; from 20th to 24th place to be modernized to keep pace with the Mission for NASA. He is also in science, and from 11th place to 21st in constantly modified global education spec- a director at large of the AIAA Orange County section. reading, according to the U.S. National Cen- trum. In today’s dynamic atmosphere, a ter for Education Statistics. The Nation’s Re- stagnant approach relying on the curricula

18 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 Copyright 2014 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Starting early: Middle-schoolers visited L’Garde's of yesterday is unfa- high bay in September to learn vorable. New learner-centered tech- about the Sunjammer solar sail. niques should be embraced even more A display model is in the background. widely. highlight the careers One such technique is explained in an of selected prominent leaders in sci- article I wrote with my brother and fellow ence and technology and refer to their aerospace engineering doctorate Omid Go- schooling or college drop-out status as hardani, in NASA’s Ask magazine, “Attract- somehow a predictor of success. Undoubt- ing Tomorrow’s Engineers.” Simply put, too edly, human ingenuity and creativity may many students in the U.S. fear math, and flourish even without formal schooling. But this fear can deflect talented people from if one considers the major aerospace the aerospace profession or make others achievements since the 1960s, highly edu- hesitant to pursue their educations at the cated individuals were essential to each. highest levels. It does not have to be that More often than not, those who suc- way. There are ways to make math educa- ceed with limited education do so despite tion more accessible, valuable and memo- the lack of education, not because of it. rable to students. Students are more en- Only a tiny percentage of people will suc- gaged about learning airfoil/wing ceed in such an unstructured environment, aerodynamics if they also go to a wind tun- and they could still make that choice if the nel and watch a wing drop because of stall. U.S. were to modernize its education sys- Students who are denied such experiences tem. These individuals nearly always have will lack a valuable sense of déjà vu when more discipline in educating themselves solving complex engineering problems than the rest of society, as they voluntarily later in their careers. invest time and effort in the subjects that Engaging students in a state-of-the-art interest them, without abiding by formal learning experience is something I most re- schooling attendance regulations. A classic cently witnessed in the L’Garde-led Sunjam- example of this kind of dedication is docu- mer solar sail project for NASA. At one par- mented from the early days of aviation. ticular event, students were able to watch Years before their first flight on December the Sunjammer team conduct a test deploy- 17, 1903, at Kitty Hawk, the Wright broth- ment of a solar sail quadrant; such an expe- ers searched for information on aeronau- rience is unforgettable. tics from their local library. On May 30, No one would question America’s his- 1899, Wilbur Wright even wrote to the tory of aerospace achievements through the Smithsonian Institution (with Samuel P. decades. The 1960s brought us the Boeing Langley as a secretary), asking for Smith- 747 and the Apollo missions. The 1970s and sonian publications on aeronautics and ’80s gave us the space shuttle, followed by suggestions for other readings. That Wilbur GPS and now unmanned aircraft. That his- Wright educated himself at the start of the tory can sometimes mislead casual observers 20th century should not suggest that this to assume that this record of innovation will strategy can carry America through the 21st continue into the future, no matter how U.S. century. A modernized U.S. education sys- students perform compared to those in other tem is essential. nations. This belief amounts to gambling The opinions expressed do not necessarily with the nation’s aerospace future. reflect the views of any organizations with A related fallacy comes when observers which the author is affiliated.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 19 Saving Kepler

The Kepler space telescope has ceed. This is the story of what went find Earth-like planets orbiting sun-like wrong with Kepler, and the stars at distances that could support been wobbling around the sun workaround the Kepler team devised. liquid water and possibly life. Some for almost a year now, its pho- 150,000 stars in the constellations of tometer no longer scanning the Reaction wheels begin to fail Cygnus and Lyra were scanned for in- For four years, scientists at NASA Ames termittent drops in light output that stars for Earth-like planets. The Research Center employed Kepler to scientists expect to see when a planet industry-government team in charge of the $650-million planet hunter has come up with Kepler space telescope on its upper stage a proposal for restarting science on the Delta rocket. work with the wounded space- craft. Soon that team will learn whether NASA HQ will authorize the new K2 mission at a cost of perhaps $11 million a year. Erik Schecter explains.

If reviewers at NASA headquarters give their blessing, the malfunctioning Kepler space telescope could be back in action, this time balancing itself largely with the pressure of charged particles from the sun as it hunts for exoplanets, supernovae and other phenomena. Ironically, this very same solar pressure posed a problem for Kepler last May, when a second reaction wheel failed inside its navigation sys- tem. Kepler and other spacecraft spin reaction wheels at different speeds to stay properly oriented. With only two reaction wheels, Kepler could have used up all its fuel trying to keep the solar wind from turning its telescope aperture toward the sun and its dam- aging rays. Engineers at Ball Aero- space in Boulder, Colo., and scientists at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California rushed to get the spacecraft wobbling safely around the sun in an orbit that would minimize its fuel use and give them time to figure out how they might resume science work with just two reaction wheels. The team ex- pects to find out in May if the pro- posed mission they call K2 will pro- NASA 20 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 lenge because moving parts it had shown any overlooked signs of tend to wear out, says Ball’s trouble. They discovered that, yes, six John Troeltzsch, an aero- months prior to failure, the motor space engineer and the com- turning the wheel was drawing more pany’s Kepler mission pro- current than normal, suggesting it was gram manager. taking more energy to keep the wheel NASA’S Sobeck puts it turning at the right speed. like this: “As best I can deter- The Kepler team was already ex- mine, reaction wheels are ploring ways to prolong the lifespan of born either good or bad…If the remaining reaction wheels when, they are bad, they’re going to in January 2013, a second reaction fail, and if they are good, wheel began drawing more current. they are going to last forever. This was a far more serious develop- And there’s no ready way to ment, but it was hard to know what to Ball Aerospace tell one from another.” do, because no one was sure why the Kepler’s reaction wheels wheels were failing. “So we did a Kepler’s mirror could be shifted to a new field of view every 80 days. were built by Ithaco Space Systems, number of things,” Troeltzsch says. which has since been bought by UTC More current was sent into the Aerospace. A spokesman for UTC plastic patch heaters to raise the tem- crosses, or transits, in front of a star. Aerospace referred any questions perature inside the housings by a few By the time of the second reaction about reaction wheels to NASA. degrees. The idea was to re-lubricate wheel failure, Kepler had discovered In July 2012, during a routine the bearings. 3,538 potential planets, 246 of which semi-weekly check-in with Kepler, In addition, the Kepler team didn’t have so far been confirmed by other Ball ground control staff realized that let the wheels spin more slowly than telescopes. a reaction wheel had failed. NASA and 300 rpm. “There was some theory that When Kepler was launched in Ball experts were unsure what caused if you ran them very, very slowly, 2009, it had four reaction wheels in this failure, but they were not panick- then any damage in the [ball] bearing separate housings. Each wheel weighs ing. The spacecraft’s “hot spare” could compound,” Troeltzsch says. 2.3 kilograms and resembles a meant the science mission could con- Ball engineers also didn’t let the squashed aluminum top hat 33 cen- tinue unaffected. In the meantime, wheels change rotational direction, timeters in diameter. The reaction NASA scientists reviewed data from which is sometimes done to counter- wheels must spin at just the right the defective reaction wheel to see if act solar pressure. speed to generate momentum to counter any unwanted turning of the spacecraft. Friction is the enemy inside these reaction wheel assemblies, so Kepler’s focal plane array detects the dip the wheels are attached to Kepler by in intensity when a planet crosses lubricated ball-bearing assemblies and in front of a star. axles. The temperatures are controlled by plastic patch heaters commanded from the ground. Only three reaction wheels are re- quired for this sort of balancing act, but “it’s very common practice for spacecraft to fly with four, having the wheels in skewed axes, so you can af- ford to lose any one of the four wheels and still control the space- craft,” says Charlie Sobeck, an electri- cal engineer and NASA’s Kepler deputy project manager. The Kepler team was aware that losing a reaction wheel was a possi- bility, because it’s happened on other NASA spacecraft. The reliability of re- action wheels has always been a chal- NASA/Ball Aerospace AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 21 Flying on two reaction wheels from the stars observed, Despite it all, the second wheel failed explains Sobeck. last May, and the spacecraft turned its There’s also a new solar panels flat toward the sun, ex- communications chal- posing them to the force of the solar lenge. The Kepler team wind. This potentially could have will need to pause col- caused Kepler to twist so far that the lections once every 80 sun would shine inside the telescope days to communicate and deform the black-coated interior with the spacecraft, of its barrel. A bigger danger was that which means a heavy too much fuel would be expended dose of automation will trying to keep the spacecraft stable. be required in between. The team used the vehicle’s eight “What we do is we give thrusters, each about half the size of a it a playbook. We write white-board marker, to right the the entire playbook up, spacecraft. They accepted that Kepler and we load it up to the would need to orbit in a wobbly rest spacecraft and say, state to use as little as possible of its ‘Here’s what we want remaining five-and-a-half kilograms of you to go do for 80 hydrazine fuel. days,’” says Troeltzsch. As the situation stood, the two re- Should something go maining wheels could control pitch wrong during that pe- Ball Aerospace and yaw, but not the roll of the vehi- riod, Kepler will reorient The honeycombed blank for Kepler's primary mirror in a clean room. cle. This meant it could point any- itself vis-à-vis the sun where in the sky, but then it would and go into “rotisserie” drift, making the stars appear to rotate. spin, sweeping its antenna into space ergy X-rays and gamma rays. Any images would be blurry, so the and eventually in the direction of The Ball and Ames team submitted 4.7-meter-long telescope ceased oper- Earth. a Senior Review Proposal for the K2 ation and was left pointing in the gen- mission to the NASA astronomy com- eral direction of the North Star while K2: Proposed science mission mittee in January. The team was the team tried to figure out how Ke- NASA officials canvassed the astron- scheduled to follow up with an oral pler might get back to work. omy community in August for ideas presentation detailing the results of a The breakthrough came from about how they might utilize a K2 30-day test of its K2 concept. If the Doug Wiemer, a staff consultant for mission. A few dozen replies came committee accepts the scientific case Ball. He suggested using the sun itself back. As expected, many suggested made on behalf of the mission, it will to control the roll, which he had seen their pet projects, but says NASA then decide how much funding K2 done with the U.S. Navy’s GeoSat Fol- Kepler project scientist and astro- should get, sending along its recom- low-On satellite, a radar altimetry physicist Steve Howell, there were mendation to NASA Headquarters for spacecraft whose reaction wheel elec- common themes, including the con- a final decision in late May. tronics wore out after 10 years. The tinued investigation of extrasolar Howell says the competition for idea was to tip Kepler over on its side planets (albeit smaller ones going K2 funds will be tough because of its so the sun’s pressure would fall evenly around smaller stars), studying black home in the NASA Astrophysics Divi- on the solar panels, keeping the vehi- holes at the center of active galaxies, sion, which includes Hubble, the cle from rolling. and scanning for supernovae. Chandra X-ray observatory “and all The tradeoff was that the tele- Those hunting for supernovae these sorts of famous missions NASA scope would have to point in the hope that K2, by scanning distant has launched.” plane of its own orbit around the sun. galaxies, will chance upon a super- Still, Ball officials think the K2 mis- The new reliance on this delicate nova with an early light curve, one in sion has a very good shot at being ac- combination of reaction wheels, solar its infancy, a phenomenon that could cepted. “We are very confident that pressure and thrusters ruled out main- not be captured from Earth. This NASA is going to approve this idea… taining Kepler’s original, constant might offer scientists insight into what based on what I’ve heard from the as- field of view. Every 80 days con- actually exploded. Right now, no one tronomers, based on what I’ve heard trollers plan to shift to a new field of is sure what creates a supernova, from NASA, based on the validity of view. The team will use the time be- whether it is a single or binary star, our idea, and the huge investment tween each pair of fields as an oppor- says Howell. Other researchers that’s been made in Kepler,” says tunity to download the light curves — wanted to find black holes still bom- Troeltzsch. Erik Schechter graphs of light intensity — collected barding their galaxies with high-en- [email protected]

22 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 13th International Conference on Space Operations eOps 2 c 01 pa 4 SpaceOps 2014 S

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R Jade Rabbit explained

hina’s lunar rover mission ran ■ Meters away from C into technical troubles in Jan- each other, the uary, troubles that space experts say rover and lander have put the mission at risk. Here are survived their 8 facts to know about the mission, no first night, last- matter how things turn out: ing about 14 Earth days. This ■ The 1,200-kilogram lander touched was a crucial test down in December on a plain called for the multi-layer Mare Imbrium, an area that forms the insulation and ra- right eye of the “man in the Moon.” dioisotope heater technology that ■ The mission is called Chang’e 3, must keep the which is also what Chinese scientists Chang’e 3 lander’s China’s Yutu rover call the lander. The rover that rolled electronics warm. The photographed by out of the lander is called Yutu, which Yutu rover folds its camera the Chang’e 3 lander. means Jade Rabbit, a mythical pet that mast and antenna down into a in Chinese legend traveled to the box that has a radioactive heat Chinese Academy of Sciences Moon with the goddess Chang’e (pro- source and is covered by a solar nounced “Chong-euh”). The rover’s panel. The rover’s other solar panel first drive on the lunar surface took it tilts down to catch the rays of the ris- about 18 meters from the lander. ing sun.

■ The lunar night lasts for two ■ The mission’s landing site is roughly weeks. During these bitterly cold, 1,750 kilometers from Tranquility dark periods, the Yutu rover and Base, where Neil Armstrong and Buzz Chang’e 3 lander must hibernate. Aldrin put humanity’s first footprints on the moon during Apollo 11.

■ China plans to return a lunar sample in 2017 on a future Chang’e mission.

■ Chinese experts quoted in press reports wonder if lunar materials that are scarce on Earth will spark a new space race for mining the Moon.

■ On Jan. 25, the Yutu rover experi- enced a “mechanical control abnor- mality,” according to Chinese news services. As another long night began, engineers were trying to solve the problem, which was caused by the “complicated lunar surface environ- ment,” said the news reports. As the

NASA/GSFC/Arizona State University lunar day returned, the mission team waited to see if Yutu would come The landing zone: The Chang’e 3 lander (large arrow) and rover back to life. They say the rover has al- (small arrow) as seen by the Lunar ready provided much useful scientific Reconnaissance Orbiter. information and imagery.

26 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 Copyright 2014 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics by Leonard David

China’s Chang’e 3 lander, photographed by the Yutu — Jade Rabbit — rover.

Chinese Academy of Sciences

The Yutu rover’s tracks are visible in this panorama taken by the Chang’e 3 lander.

Chinese Academy of Sciences AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 27 Ready, set, EXPORT

Arms trade reforms mean big adjustment for industry

Coarse sun sensors don’t sound very U.S. Munitions List, a tally of 20 types of dangerous. They’re analog devices that equipment, services and related technolo- track the sun’s position so satellites can stay gies that are subject to a 165-page set of properly oriented. Stan Kennedy installed rules called the International Traffic in Arms hundreds of them into spacecraft while Regulations, or ITAR. working for Lockheed Martin Space Sys- These rules govern whether and under tems and, before it closed its doors, what conditions knowledge and equipment, Comtech AeroAstro. including missiles, can be exported. For each The sensors were made by putting alu- customer, Comtech AeroAstro had to assess minum harnesses around Japanese-made whether the export would be allowed, and commercial photo diodes and attaching document the steps it would take to ensure wire “pigtails” to measure the current. For that the customer did not acquire the intel- the devices to work properly, they had to lectual know-how behind the sensors and be calibrated for pointing accuracy, and did not intend to resell the sensors. that’s where things got expensive. Comtech AeroAstro was not alone. To- It wasn’t the technical work that drove day, nearly every aerospace company has the cost. It was the paperwork. Because the an export compliance team that reviews, sensors were calibrated for use in a space- logs and redacts, when necessary, every by Debra Werner craft, they automatically moved onto the paper or electronic document sent to a for-

28 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 Copyright 2014 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Boeing eign customer. Even press releases must be For American aerospace companies, the outlook reviewed for ITAR-covered details, because they are freely available to foreign govern- for exports could be brightening now that the ments or companies. When foreign cus- tomers visit offices or factories, U.S. compa- Obama administration has begun overhauling nies conduct background checks on each the controversial International Traffic in Arms person and log the minutes to every meet- ing. Lawyers are often retained to assure Regulations. The changes will add complexity, compliance. One industry official estimated that his firm employed 17 people and spent and executives are anxious to learn exactly approximately $4 million a year to comply how the revised system will work. with U.S. government export rules. In the case of Kennedy’s sun sensors, Debra Werner explains. he figures the ITAR process turned a $1,000 or $2,000 item into a $1,500 to $3,000 item, all to protect a technology already widely available from other vendors internationally. Years of ITAR heartburn in the U.S. aerospace industry have prompted the

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 29 Hoeber, Space Systems Loral’s vice presi- dent of technology and innovation. “We don’t know exactly what the final regula- tions are going to look like, but the direc- tion is positive and should be very benefi- cial to the U.S. aerospace industry in general.” Executives anticipate a challenging ad- justment period, though. “Remember it’s ITAR relaxation, not simplification, because it actually gets much more complicated,” says Jay Hennig, president of Moog Space and Defense Group. For the industry, the existing rules have been the devil they know — a drag on ex-

U.S. Air Force ports, yet a licensing process they under- stand. Any item initially designed or modi- New rules: fied for military use was considered a The Commerce Department gets authority to oversee exports of many military aircraft parts and components. The State Department continues to oversee technology that could give the military an military item and placed on the State De- edge, such as the stealth technolgy in the B-2 bomber and the retired F-117 fleet, and targeting partment’s Munitions List, making it subject components in the B-1 bomber. to ITAR. That has historically included mili- tary fighter planes, spacecraft components Obama administration to begin revamping the country's export licens- like Kennedy’s sun sensors, and even nuts, ing process largely through federal rulemaking. The strategy was al- bolts and screws no more sophisticated ready underway before President Obama’s January announcement that than those at Home Depot. he’ll use his executive powers more often because of the gridlock in “We are moving from a system that had Congress. The rules are being rolled out piecemeal, and they are sup- a lot more certainty, but also a lot more ab- posed to add up to a new process that will work like this: Technologies surdity,” says Remy Nathan, vice president that are thought to give the U.S. military an edge and are not already for international affairs at AIA, the Aero- available outside the country will remain space Industries Association. on the State Department’s Munitions List. Under the new export sys- Technologies that don’t meet those crite- To export or not to export? tem, different procedures will ria will be handed off to the Commerce The green shows categories of the Munitions List apply to different items. If all Department for export oversight. The re- that a panel of experts has scoured for technolo- goes as planned, the “absur- sult? State would oversee a much shorter gies that should be made easier to export. The red dity” decried by the industry Munitions List, and Commerce would be categories were still in the works. Firearms, guns would end, because companies responsible for a revised and extended and ammunition, shown in blue, will be addressed won’t need a license to sell separately. Commerce Control List. Category 1 firearms many common consumer items The big question is whether this Category 2 guns abroad, even if the hardware is closely held approach of parsing tech- Category 3 ammunition used in military jeeps or air- nologies into divided authorities will Category 4 launch vehicles, missiles craft. The Commerce Depart- simplify the export process after a tran- Category 5 explosives ment would oversee dual-use sition period, or whether the additional Category 6 vessels of war and naval equipment equipment, things like tires that Category 7 tanks and military vehicles complexity will force companies to hire Category 8 aircraft and associated equipment can be used on military and more lawyers and expand export teams. Category 9 military training equipment commercial jets. Industry officials interviewed for this ar- Category 10 protective personal equipment Someone must decide ticle were by and large optimistic about and shelters which military and space-re- the changes, but also anxious to see the Category 11 military electronics lated items should be available final versions of the new rules and the Category 12 fire control, range finding, for export and under what con- changes they will require in their inter- optical, guidance and control ditions, and a team of experts equipment nal processes. Category 13 auxiliary military equipment from the departments of De- Category 14 toxicological agents fense and State have been The end of ‘absurdity’? Category 15 spacecraft systems working on that since 2011. Aerospace industry officials say the ITAR Category 16 nuclear weapons The team has concluded that rules have irritated international cus- Category 17 classified articles, technical data commercial communications tomers and made some potential buyers Category 18 directed energy weapons satellites and aircraft engines shun U.S. suppliers. They’re hopeful Category 19 gas turbine engines are not critical to U.S. national Category 20 submersible vessels and oceanic about the overhaul: “We think it’s a ma- equipment security and are widely avail- jor step in the right direction,” says Chris able outside the U.S. The Com-

30 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 merce Department would oversee the ex- port of those, still subject to laws that set SEEING RED embargoes or bar military or space exports to specific countries. Among the items re- Revenue loss: $20.8 billion maining on the Munitions List will be rock- U.S. jobs lost: 27,000 annually (U.S. dollars in $billions) ets, unmanned aircraft and advanced $15 weapons. Those would still require State U.S. % of world revenue 65% Department export licenses. 13.5

Whether an item is ultimately exported 12 60% 12.4 12.0 would vary based on its destination: 11.5 11.6 55% 11.0 10.8 10.5 • No export license would be needed 10.4 10.2 9.8 for most Commerce Control List items des- 9 50% 9.5 tined for 36 close U.S. allies, meaning most 8.3 45% 7.9 7.8 7.7 European nations, Argentina, Australia, 6.9 6 40% 6.6 Canada, Japan and New Zealand. The ex- 6.0 porters will need only notify the State De- 35% 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.6 partment about the transaction and show 3.8 3.9 3 30% that the purchaser agreed to abide by the 3.2 3.1 rules, such as not reselling the items. ★★★★★★★★★★★★★★ • For nations that are neither among 0 the 36 closest U.S. allies nor considered ‘96 ’97 ‘98 ’99 ‘00 ’01 ’02 ‘03 ’04 ‘05 ’06 ‘07 ’08 ‘09 state sponsors of terrorism, export rules will World revenue ★ U.S. revenue AIA projection Source: Aerospace Industries Association vary based on the item for sale, its intended use and the buyer. Costly overreaction? The U.S. Aerospace Industries • The changes would not undo exist- congressional investigators that American Association says the U.S. lost ing prohibitions on exporting space or de- contractors shared missile secrets with billions in potential revenues fense technology to a long list of countries, China. At the time, Chinese Long March after Congress shifted commercial satellites and components to the including China and countries the U.S. con- rockets were prone to crashing, sometimes State Department’s Munitions List siders state sponsors of terror. with U.S.-built satellites aboard, and con- in 1999. The move came after The process sounds complicated, and tractors had a vested interest in better relia- congressional investigators accused the Obama administration knows there will bility. The 1999 provision ended the prac- contractors of sharing missile secrets with China while trying to be a learning curve. “We in the administra- tice of launching those satellites on Chinese diagnose technical issues with its tion fully understand that in the transition rockets, and it also made it harder for U.S. Long March rockets. The rockets period, companies are going to have a little companies to export commercial satellites had destroyed American satellites and killed civilians in China in a bit of pain in terms of having to read elsewhere. The Clinton administration op- string of failures. The Clinton through and understand the new rules and posed the provision and so did the Obama administration opposed the shift, change internal classifications and compli- administration on its arrival. Then-Defense but the president could not easily ance procedures,” says Kevin Wolf, assis- Secretary Robert Gates urged Congress to veto it because it was part of the annual defense authorization. tant secretary of commerce for export ad- change the law, and lawmakers obliged in ministration. “But the only way you get to the 2013 National Defense Authorization the point of moving things off the U.S. Mu- Act by restoring the authority of the presi- nitions List to a more tailored list is if you dent to decide whether space exports go through that transition.” should be overseen by the Commerce or To ease the pain, the new rules won’t State Department. Final rules for spacecraft take effect immediately. Final rules will be- are expected to appear in the Federal Reg- come effective six months after they are ister in April. If that schedule holds, “folks published in the federal register. In addi- would have the summer to read it, get to tion, companies with existing State Depart- know it and ask questions” before it goes ment export licenses can continue to sell into effect,” Wolf says. based on that authority for up to two years. Companies also plan to spend those months establishing separate processes for Space tech exports handling items that will remain on the Mu- The Obama Administration needed legisla- nitions List and those that will move to the tive help on one kind of technology: satel- Commerce Control List. “Having to main- lite exports. Congress had to reverse a pro- tain two systems for proper reporting and vision of the 1999 National Defense controls could potentially add costs for Authorization Act that placed all spacecraft small business,” says Kennedy, who estab- and related items on the Munitions List. The lished Oakman Aerospace in Littleton, provision was a response to allegations by Colo., after the Comtech AeroAstro closure.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 31 try officials say. U.S. satellite manufacturers comprise 50 percent of the international market, and American officials say the U.S. share would be higher if potential cus- tomers weren’t scared off by possible ITAR complications. “Our foreign customers have become resigned to the ITAR process, but there is a small subset of the market that says, ‘I’m not even going to try to deal with it. I’m just going to buy satellites in Eu- rope,’” says one satellite industry official who asked not to be identified. “So ITAR reform is not going to cause massive

Moog Bradford growth, but it will broaden our potential customer base.” The coarse sun sensors, There’s plenty of evidence to support a navigation component “Over the years, small business has learned this view: For years, Europe’s Thales Alenia on satellites, would be easier to export under new U.S. rules. to deal with the State Department rules. It Space advertised an “ITAR-free” communi- will take additional time and resources to cations satellite, and a European Space review and comply with the resulting Agency website advertises a coarse sun changes to both lists.” sensor similar to the one Comtech AeroAs- The coarse sun sensor, for example, is tro produced by noting it is “a European expected to move from the Munitions List product, built with components free of ex- to the Commerce Control List, while other port restrictions imposed by US ITAR legis- more precise navigation technology is lation.” likely to remain under State Department Nathan of the Aerospace Industries As- control. sociation says he’s confident the revised ex- Suborbital rocket manufacturers were port control system will make U.S. industry hit especially hard after 1999. They strug- more competitive by easing compliance re- gled to get State Department permission to quirements. “With the implementation of publish guides informing scientists and in- the new rules in the coming year, that bur- dustrial researchers about the characteristics den will decrease significantly,” he predicts. of their vehicles: the temperature of the spacecraft cabin, time in microgravity, Lingering issues power supply. Although companies generally laud ITAR “Each company had to go through quite reform, none appear to be 100 percent sat- a process to get the guide approved, be- isfied with the draft and final rules pub- cause there is information in there that could lished to date. Commercial satellite Complying with complex U.S. arms rules has been challenging be subject to ITAR, and putting it on the builders are disappointed with draft rules for startups like Masten Space web” amounted to exporting it, says Alex that would subject government-funded Systems, maker of the Xoie Saltman, executive director for the Commer- hosted payloads to ITAR. Many in the satel- (pronounced Zoey) rocket. cial Spaceflight Foundation. “They lite remote sensing industry say they dis- got the first version cleared. But if agree with plans to require State Depart- anything changes, they will have ment licenses for camera-equipped to go through the entire process satellites with mirror apertures greater than again.” 0.35 meters — the wider the aperture, the Jumping through those hoops more light, and the finer the resolution. is particularly difficult for small They say international competitors already companies like the 12-person supply systems with much larger apertures. start-up Masten Space Systems of Suborbital vehicle manufacturers oppose a Mojave, Calif., which is develop- provision of the draft rules that would ing vertical takeoff, vertical land- place manned commercial spacecraft on ing spacecraft. “Everybody does the U.S. Munitions List. everything,” Saltman says. “So If the rules for suborbital craft stand, ITAR compliance takes time away Virgin Galactic and XCOR Aerospace may from someone who is building have trouble following through with plans something.” to take off and land at foreign spaceports. NASA Dryden For large companies, ITAR Even if the government approves an initial closes off certain markets, indus- license for those operations, additional ap-

32 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 provals will be required whenever compa- nies install new equipment inside their Dollars and sense rockets or spaceplanes or provide technical information on proposed operations to lo- Today, companies must pay a minimum of $2,250 to the State cal regulatory authorities, Saltman says. Department to register their companies with the agency’s The Commerce Department also heard Directorate for Defense Trade Controls. Frequent exporters pay complaints from manufacturers and suppli- $2,750 plus $250 for every export license application after the ers eager to sell parts or components to for- eign satellite builders whose spacecraft are first 10. This adds up quickly for companies that export hundreds available for sale to China, and from firms of different types of equipment and components annually. eager to start trading with China. Some Under the new approach, companies will not need to pay “would like to be able to have access to any fees to sell items on the expanded Commerce Control List those markets, but for larger national secu- rity reasons, the administration has been to be managed by the Commerce Department. Fees will still be firm on that,” Wolf says. paid to the State Department to register and apply to export The new approach is intended to make items on its Munitions List, but that list will become much shorter. it easier to make changes in the future. Be- cause of its catch-all nature, the existing U.S. Munitions List hasn’t required much updat- ing. The new Munitions and Commerce protect commonly available satellites and Control List will need to be modified as related items on the U.S. Munitions List, companies adapt or improve technologies. thus impeding the U.S. ability to work with “Such a firm list absolutely requires reg- partners and putting U.S. manufacturers at ular maintenance and update,” Wolf says. a disadvantage, but providing no noticeable He declined to elaborate on how often that benefit to national security,” the Defense type of review might be conducted, but and State departments concluded in a 2012 noted that government agencies already ob- document known as the “1248 report” for tain the kind of industry input needed for the section of the National Defense Author- periodic reviews. That input arrives through ization Act that required it.

If export rules for suborbital craft stay the same, Virgin Galactic and XCOR Aerospace may have trouble taking off and landing at foreign spaceports.

XCOR Aerospace Virgin Galactic the Commerce Department’s Technical Ad- Patricia Cooper, president of the Satel- visory Committees and the Defense Depart- lite Industry Association, a leader of the ment’s Defense Trade Advisory Group. campaign for more flexibility in spacecraft Those assurances have done little to exports, welcomed that report and the ex- ease the concerns of executives who say it’s port reform process it prompted. Cooper very difficult for the government to respond says the long struggle to convince the U.S. quickly to industry concerns. They point to government to stop treating all space-re- the many years the space industry pressed lated products as munitions has led to a for export reform without success. The new sensitivity. “We in the satellite sector turning point came only when Congress or- have provided a specific experience that dered the departments of Defense and State demonstrates that getting it wrong can af- to assess the national security impact of the fect an industry that matters,” she says. 1999 Munitions List decision. “Current law “That has changed the way policymakers forces the U.S. government to continue to look at export controls.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 33 Critics want a complete re-examination of U.S. launch strategy, including the multi-billion-dollar Space Launch System. Natalia Mironova explores whether they have a case. Choose your launcher arry Lyles wanted to build big rock- public aim at the policy underpinnings of ets since he was a little kid. He re- the SLS program; outside experts are ques- G members visiting NASA’s Marshall tioning the wisdom of devoting so much of Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., NASA’s budget to one program — nearly $3 when he was 10 years old and staring in billion out of $17 billion in each of the next awe at the eight massive engines of the Sat- five years. The biggest new factor could be urn 5 rocket — the rocket that would carry this: What once looked like a risky gamble Apollo astronauts to the moon — and won- to invest some money in commercially de- dering how something that big could ever signed rockets and capsules — as opposed fly. “It was an exciting time for a 10-year- to government blueprints like the ones for old. It never left me,” he says. SLS and its Orion capsule — has paid off Today Lyles is doing exactly the job he with a string of picture-perfect cargo dreamed of as a young boy: Building the launches to the International Space Station. biggest rocket ever. Lyles is the chief engi- Still to come are commercial crew flights to neer of NASA’s Space Launch System — A low Earth orbit, and anything beyond that 70-meter-tall stack of expendable rocket is a question mark. engines topped by a crew capsule. A long-shot policy fight like this one If Congress and the White House fund will require branding, and critics are trying the SLS to completion, it will be a multi- to label SLS “a rocket to nowhere.” They faceted workhorse with the brawn to carry question the fiscal feasibility of the prom- cargo and crew beyond Earth’s orbit, making ised manned trips to deep space, and they it possible for astronauts to travel back to the note that NASA has plans under way for moon, to an asteroid, and even to Mars. only one such trip, a mission to an asteroid, It looks like completing SLS will re- notionally targeted for 2021. The money quire overcoming increasingly vocal critics. planned for the SLS, they argue, would be by Natalia Mironova A former high-level NASA official has taken better invested in further developing com-

34 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 Copyright ©2014 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics NASA/MSFC Artist’s rendering: The first unmanned test flight of NASA’s Space Launch System is scheduled for 2017. mercial alternatives for of Liberty and human space travel. weighing 5.5 million pounds — the equiva- Pushing back lent of seven-and-a-half Lyles has heard the criticism, but for him fully loaded Boeing 747 there is no question about the need for SLS. jets. At liftoff it will pro- “It will be the most capable rocket ever duce 10 percent more thrust built,” he says. Two incarnations are in the than the Saturn 5, the only works — an initial one with 70-metric-ton lift NASA rocket comparable to the SLS. The capability and an “evolved” 130-metric-ton evolved SLS model will be able to lift the lift version. Both are being designed to inter- equivalent of 143 one-ton pick-up trucks to changeably carry cargo or the Orion crew orbit, with a cargo compartment big enough capsule, which is currently being developed to fit nine school buses. In both versions of for NASA by Boeing. the SLS, the core stage will be propelled by Even the smaller version of the SLS will four RS-25 space shuttle main engines. The be a beast of a launcher, taller than the Statue 130-metric-ton version will employ the J-2X engine in its upper stage — an updated vari- ant of the engine originally designed for the 1968 Saturn 5 lunar mission. In fact, engineers consider the SLS Sat- urn’s “grandchild.” According to Lyles, its technology was “evolved from the Saturn through the space shuttle program.” The The initial version of the Space SLS has the same sleek look of the Saturn Launch System will be capable rocket, and it’s stacked the same way. of sending 70 metric tons to low Moreover, the space shuttle main engine Earth orbit. NASA AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 35 was itself derived from the J-2 engine on space program?” the Saturn 5. According to Lyles, NASA Garver is referring to the Constellation made a deliberate choice to base the design rocket and capsule program started by the of the SLS on proven technology, incorpo- Bush administration in 2004. Constellation’s rating improvements within the tried and mandate was to carry astronauts back to true elements. “It’s a lower risk approach, the moon. It comprised design work on the and it’s more cost effective,” says Lyles. “To Orion crew capsule — described by then- build something brand new that has never NASA Administrator Michael Griffin as flown comes with a high risk and at a high “Apollo on steroids” — and the Ares heavy- cost, with no advantage to capability. We lift rocket. The Obama administration can- believe the most efficient way to approach celled the Constellation program in 2010. this is through evolution.” RAND Corporation researcher Peter A. This cautious approach has been Wilson says Constellation was doomed viewed by some critics as too cautious, from the start because of the costs of the even redundant. The most noticed re- wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. “The reality is proach came from space expert Lori that the [Bush] White House, much to Garver, who left her position as NASA NASA’s frustration, under-funded the effort deputy administrator in September and in because they had a war to worry about. January went public with criticism of the Going back to the moon was hardly a pri- SLS in an appearance on National Public ority for the [Bush] administration; so the Radio: “The rocket is so similar, and it’s project languished,” says Wilson. built off of 1970s technology. The very en- The 2009 review of the Constellation gines we’re going to use are space shuttle program by the United States Human Space engines that were developed in the 1970s. Flight Plans Committee, also known as the Would you really go to Mars with a technol- Augustine Commission, determined that the ogy that’s 50 years old? That’s not what in- program could not be completed without novation and our space exploration pro- major increases in funding. The move trig- gram should be all about,” Garver said on gered some complicated parliamentary ma- NPR’s Diane Rehm show. She stood by neuvers. The president’s NASA budget re- those comments when contacted by Aero- quest for fiscal year 2011 announced space America. cancellation of the Constellation program, Lyles has heard the “old technology” but also called for a total of $3.1 billion criticism before, and he says it’s off the over five years for heavy-lift and propulsion mark: “We’re not flying the same RS-25 en- research and development. The NASA Au- gine that flew 30 years ago.” Within the thorization Act of 2010 — the NASA budget proven elements of the basic design of the bill sent to the president by Congress — liquid-fuel cryogenic engine design lies a added in development of the SLS as a fol- tremendous amount of new technology, he low-on to the shuttle program. says. All of the electronics are state-of-the- Congress was first to use the term art, as are some of the manufacturing tech- Space Launch System when it added the nologies like friction stir welding, a U.K.- program during work on the NASA Author- developed technique in which a rotating ization Act of 2010, which Obama signed in head turns metals into a “plastic-like state” October 2010. that’s mixed into a bond, according to Wilson’s theory, which could not be NASA. “We’re using some of the most ad- independently verified, is that the SLS vanced manufacturing technologies in the emerged as a political “senate mandated” world today,” says Lyles.

Politics and priorities NASA’s SLS plan includes an evolved version for lifting 130 metric tons But Garver’s focus in criticizing the SLS went beyond its perceived lack of innova- tion. In the same NPR discussion, she por- trayed SLS as a product of politics. “It was something that Congress dictated to NASA. It had to do with the Orion spacecraft. It is a holdover from Constellation, which the `Obama administration tried to cancel. And it’s $3 billion a year of NASA’s $17 billion. Is that how you would be investing in a Boeing

36 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 compromise between the Obama adminis- COMMERCIAL OPTIONS tration and the powerful senators from states including Alabama, Texas and Florida, who championed Constellation and were disappointed when the funding was cut. Asked about this by email, Garver didn’t reference a specific deal made be- hind closed doors, but she made a related point: “SLS being congressionally mandated is simply a matter of fact. The administra- tion did not request the SLS (or Orion) in its annual budget submission. The Congress added the program(s) into the NASA budget (and cut other administration prior- ity programs such as Earth science, technol- ogy and commercial crew). The president did not veto the legislation — thus accepting the Congress’ direction. This is a matter of record. There were many meetings and dis- cussions during this time, but the simple process is the same as always. The federal budget process is quite simple: The presi- dent proposes, the Congress disposes,” Garver said in an email. The SLS will be using the Orion crew capsule originally commissioned for the Four main contenders for NASA’s Constellation program and designed by Boe- Commercial Crew Development A B C D ing, and a very similar engine technology program, with the space shuttle shown for scale. derivative from the space shuttle and the Sat- Illustration by John Bretschneider urn 5, giving its critics reason to argue that the SLS is basically Constellation redux. A Boeing’s Crew Space Transportation-100 Affordability factor The CST-100 would accommodate up to seven people. It would be Wilson is not a fan of the SLS, to put it reusable for up to 10 missions and has a weldless”design, according mildly. He penned an op-ed for an April is- to the company. The first test flight is currently scheduled for late sue of Aviation Week & Space Technology, 2016, the first manned mission for 2017. titled: “Kill the Space Launch System to save human spaceflight.” He calls the SLS “a 15- B Sierra Nevada’s Dream Chaser billion-dollar mistake.” He said in an inter- The Dream Chaser would hold seven people within its reusable view, “It’s a ‘field of dreams’ strategy: If you winged lifting body. It would maneuver through space, dock with build it, they will come.” Wilson argues that other spacecraft, including the International Space Station, and land spending money on a huge undertaking on a conventional runway. like the SLS is a luxury the U.S. taxpayer simply can’t afford in this day and age. “The manifest for this very large C SpaceX’s Falcon 9v1.1/Dragon rocket, as we speak, is two flights. One The SpaceX Falcon 9v1.1 is a larger successor to the original Falcon [unmanned flight] in 2017, which is ridicu- 9. In 2012 the Dragon capsule became the first commercial space- lously close at hand. And then another craft to deliver cargo to the International Space Station and return flight which is supposed to take place to Earth. Dragon’s first manned test flight is expected to take place sometime in 2021 with some human beings in two to three years. on board; initially it was supposed to be just a fly-by around the moon, and then D Blue Origin NASA realized that seemed ridiculous since The dimensions of Blue Origin’s yet-unnamed orbital spacecraft they’ve done that in 1968. And now they have not been revealed – the artist’s rendering is notional only. The took up this asteroid mission to at least company says only that the craft would be launched on a reusable have the justification to why you’d want to first-stage booster that would separate from the upper stage, de- carry it out. The Congress itself is skeptical scend to Earth, and perform a powered, vertical landing. Blue Origin (Continued on page 45) was established by Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 37 or The case for ptimism

NASA Mars in an image from the Curiosity rover. Inset: scene from the movie “Mission to Mars,” Buena Vista Pictures

ending human explorers to Mars is an $17.65 billion, roughly $1 billion lower Sidea that has seemed to many in the than its FY 2010 budget — not exactly a space community as elusive as a mi- good trajectory. rage on a red-hued desert planet, but it’s something they’ve thought about for No plan, no funds, no ride decades. Indeed, rocket pioneer Wernher According to Scott Pace, director of George von Braun advocated the idea in a Collier’s Washington University’s Space Policy Insti- magazine article in 1954, well before NASA tute, if NASA’s budget today had the same came into being. purchasing power it had 20 years ago, it For dyed-in-the-wool space exploration would be around $24 billion. I asked Pace, As NASA’s lead writer from advocates. there’s a sense that for far too who is also former NASA associate admin- 2002-2009, Edward Goldstein long we’ve been on a path that’s led to istrator for program analysis and evaluation, wrote speeches and opinion roadblocks, detours and dead ends. After to judge the likelihood of a viable human articles for two administrators, Sean O’Keefe and Michael all, weren’t we promised Mars in earnest by mission to the surface of Mars in the 2030s. Griffin. Goldstein earned his one vice president, Spiro Ag- His response: “Absolute zero. Ph.D. from George Washington new — leader of the post A mission doesn’t exist. There University in 2007 with a Apollo-11 Space Task Group — is no plan, there is no funding, dissertation on the history of NASA’s Earth Science Program. and two president Bushes, only ANALYSIS there’s no near-term capability to have such plans disappear by Edward Goldstein in place. The political condi- into the dustbin of history? tions don’t exist for it. The And let’s not forget that economic conditions don’t ex- four years ago in his Kennedy Space Cen- ist for it. I might as well be talking about ter space policy address, President Obama long-term plans for interstellar flight.” asserted, “By the mid-2030s, I believe we Similarly skeptical is former NASA chief can send humans to orbit Mars and return historian Roger Launius, now associate di- them safely to Earth. And a landing on rector of collections and curatorial affairs at Mars will follow.” But of course that was in the Smithsonian Institution’s National Air the heady pre-sequestration days, when his and Space Museum. “My question for any- administration was proposing $6 billion in one who thinks we should go off and send new funding for NASA over five years — a human mission to Mars is simply this: with a big increase for technology devel- What is the trigger mechanism, the set of opment — on top of the $1 billion in extra economic, political, social or whatever fac- stimulus funding the agency received in tors … that would come together and cre- 2009. After the budget deal reached by ate an environment in which the appropri- Congress and the president in December, ate response to that challenge, whatever NASA has a fiscal year 2014 budget of that challenge might be, is a trip to Mars?”

38 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 Copyright 2014 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Edward Goldstein asked fellow Mars exploration advocates about the near-term prospects for sending humans to the Martian surface. Below are some of their responses, and a discussion of current approaches to achieving the goal.

said Launius. “I don’t envision us finding approach for human Mars exploration.” that trigger. So I don’t think it’s real…There NASA Headquarters is considering sensible are enthusiasts, and that enthusiasm is real. refinements to the document, which pro- But they don’t have the size or the influ- vides a “common framework for future ence necessary to make a human mission planning of systems concepts, technology to Mars something that’s going on the na- development, and operational testing,” say tional agenda.” its authors. It is the fifth in a series the That said, there is work under way agency began publishing in 1993 in at- now that I believe could lend itself to a tempts to produce a plausible architecture more optimistic view, that a little over two for human Mars exploration. decades from now, people around the This document lays out scenarios for In a 1954 Collier’s magazine world will gather to watch a crystal-clear three lengthy expeditions to the Martian article, rocket pioneer Wernher live video feed and hear the historic words surface. In conjunction with the scientific von Braun advocated the idea transmitted about 10 minutes earlier from a community, the paper pinpoints 58 possi- of sending human explorers distance of at least 35 million miles: “Hous- ble landing targets. All are tied to learning to Mars. ton, Eberswalde Base here, the Millennium more about whether Mars at one time sus- Eagle has landed.” Eberswalde Crater pre- tained life, and about the planet’s geology, serves a Martian river delta system and subsurface and atmosphere. could hold evidence of early life. Wise spending — Another reason for op- timism is the agency’s investment in the 16 Causes for hope top technology priorities deemed critical by Technology gains — NASA and its con- the National Research Council for future tractors are making significant progress on NASA missions, including several related to critical elements for a human Mars mission interplanetary exploration. An area of sig- — the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle and SLS, nificant progress is cryogenic propellant the Space Launch System. Moreover, re- storage and transfer, says Michael Gazarik, search onboard the International Space Sta- NASA’s associate administrator for space tion is helping NASA understand the long- technology. Another important area of in- term biomedical challenges of such vestment, he says, is in high power solar missions and is providing experience with electric propulsion. “Those are the number operating a complex environmental life one and number two high-priority technol- support system. ogy areas for future exploration,” he says. Planning continues — NASA is taking a Being able to store and transfer cryogenic steady-as-she-goes attitude toward its De- fluids on orbit “is a real enabler, saving sig- sign Reference Architecture 5.0, whose au- nificant mass for human or robotic explo- thors modestly call it “a vision of a potential ration,” says Gazarik. High-power solar

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 39 The Orion Multi-Purpose ration stakeholders from NASA and the Crew Vehicle undergoes contractor community discussed human testing at Lockheed Martin. missions to Mars at a meeting hosted by Ex- plore Mars Inc. and the American Astronau- tical Society at George Washington Univer- sity. Their conclusion: With space agency budgets that keep pace with inflation, inter- national partnerships and alternative acqui- sition and development methods — includ- ing streamlined government oversight and Skunk Works/Phantom Works-like struc- tures — the “initial human missions to Mars NASA are affordable under reasonable assump- tions and with sustained international polit- electric propulsion is also “a very effi- ical support.” cient way to move cargo as we explore Priceless opportunity — A final cause the solar system,” he says. for hope is that Mars itself is in a coopera- On the question of forward mo- tive mood. In 2033 and 2035, the planet’s mentum, Gazarik sees broader signs of orbit relative to Earth is particularly favor- progress: “What we had in the past able for minimum-energy trajectories, re- were a lot of studies. We had probably ducing the fuel required for sending a mis- 40 studies or so over the last 30 years sion into Martian orbit, to the surface of that have asked, ‘what are the technolo- Phobos or Deimos, or even to the planet’s gies you need to get to Mars?’ that all surface with spacecraft fueled by conven- say about the same thing…The differ- tional propellants. This window may also ence we’re making now in space tech is occur during the “solar maximum” phase of [that] we’re working on them. We’re the 11-year solar magnetic field. This is working on laser and optical communi- when the sun is at its most active state and cation. We’re working on advanced en- provides protection against galactic cosmic NASA try descent and landing. We need to rays, an insidious form of space radiation The Space Launch System put more mass on the surface, as we can’t that can cause cancer and nerve damage in is still an artist’s rendering, but it could someday send go around exploring the universe in a astronauts. a crew toward Mars. Mini-Cooper,” which is the size of the Cu- Also, because the 2033 and 2035 riosity rover. launch windows are unusually good ones, International support — The latest leading to a relatively shorter transition time Global Exploration Roadmap, released in to and from Mars — unlike in the Apollo era August by the International Space Explo- — the stay time for crews near or on the sur- ration Coordination Group — an informa- face of Mars could be weeks to months. tion exchange organization that includes Indeed, there is growing optimism that NASA — has become more Mars focused NASA, with the support of international and and includes a single reference mission sce- commercial partners, can make a human nario leading to exploration of the red Mars mission possible before the eightieth planet after 2030. In December, Mars explo- anniversary of the space age. Also, private sector ideas such as Mars One, Mars Direct and Inspiration Mars are viewed favorably “I think that something in the early 2030s is achievable with the budget we have, if — and this is a big if — we can get international partners to come along and lay in other pieces of the infrastructure.” Early artist's conception of Inspiration Mars capsule and — James Crocker, Lockheed Martin Space Systems habitat module.

40 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 NASA Pressurized rovers would allow the crew to explore beyond the range permitted by their space by many traditional space community pro- hard and therefore too difficult and expen- suits and work in a shirtsleeve fessionals for stirring public interest about sive to attempt,” he says. But his experi- environment. Mars, and for potentially pointing the way ence with the ISS has given him a different to new technological approaches or even view. Getting to Mars “isn’t that much meeting their bold objectives. It’s worth harder than what we’ve already done for noting, however, that NASA is not onboard ISS, with international cooperation and with billionaire Dennis Tito’s Inspiration cost-sharing.” Mars plan for launching a mission to the Raftery further argues the tonnage planet as early as 2017 using NASA’s new needed for a human Mars mission will be Space Launch System. substantially lower than that required for In response to Tito’s plan, David ISS assembly and logistics flights, depend- Weaver, NASA’s associate administrator for ing on the architecture and in-space public affairs, made this statement: “Inspi- propulsion technology used. The number ration Mars’ proposed schedule is a signifi- of unique payloads needed will also be cant challenge due to life support systems, lower, he says. space radiation response, habitats and the The key to success, says Raftery, is to human psychology of being in a small have an “architecture that takes advantage spacecraft over 500 days. The agency is of the lessons learned from ISS and breaks willing to share technical and program- down the overall requirements for a mis- matic expertise with Inspiration Mars, but sion into as few pieces as possible, with as is unable to commit to sharing expenses little revolutionary technology as possible.” with them.” The Inspiration Mars team is Raftery describes a potential mission working on a revised plan for 2021 that broken down into six basic elements: SLS seeks to address the issues NASA raised, for crew and cargo launch; Orion for crew and only time will tell if this new plan will return to Earth; a TransHab Module to carry gain acceptance. crews to orbit around Mars; solar electric But for the long haul, NASA appears propulsion tugs to transfer cargo from high committed to Mars, which “is today the ul- Earth orbit or cis-lunar space to a Mars orbit timate destination in our solar system for and/or the Martian surface; the Mars lander; humans and…a priority for NASA,” said the and the Mars ascent vehicle. A launch cam- agency’s administrator, Charles Bolden, at paign using an SLS or evolved SLS system George Washington University’s Humans to for a landing mission would require five to Mars Summit in May. “Our entire explo- seven launches for the crew — “if you don’t ration program is aligned to support this push the technology too hard,” says Bret goal.” Drake, principal editor of NASA’s Design Reference Architecture 5.0 — with an addi- Confidence building tional four to seven launches needed to get Mike Raftery, director of International cargo to the Martian surface. Space Station utilization and exploration for In Raftery’s view, nuclear electric Boeing, leads a team at his company exam- propulsion, while desirable for reducing ining Mars exploration architectures. “The the transit time to Mars, should not be on community is starting to believe that we the critical path. Some eight years after the can make Mars happen, and that is a rela- Project Prometheus nuclear propulsion pro- tively recent thing,” he says. Previously, the gram was cancelled, NASA planners are still thinking was that Mars is “really big and looking at this technology. However, it

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 41 “[Getting to Mars] isn’t that much harder than what we’ve already done for ISS, with international cooperation and cost-sharing.”

— Mike Raftery, Boeing

would require a major, sustained funding working with the Department of Energy on commitment to achieve engineering viabil- the thermal management part and the man- ity and reliability in deep space. “Nuclear agement and control of the system,” to thermal propulsion is one area, along with “move that forward as best we can” until efficient surface and spacecraft power… more resources become available. where everyone can see tremendous bene- fit,” says NASA’s Gazarik. “Given today’s Step-by-step planning tough fiscal environment, and specifically Perhaps crucial to turning Mars visions into where [the] Space Technology [Mission Di- reality is completing a viable near-term rectorate] stands, it’s a tough one to go stepping-stone plan once the SLS and push on in a very large way….We have Orion are ready. James Crocker, vice presi- some moderate investments to keep nu- dent and general manager of civil space at Landing sites: clear systems alive.” At NASA Marshall, “we Lockheed Martin Space Systems, says that Jezero Crater (left), Eberswalde simulate the nuclear part. And we are after those systems are available, the next Crater (middle),and Mangala Valles (right) are among the contenders.

42 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 step would be to develop a series of A major potential hurdle to overcome manned flights. These would start in 2020 is the issue of crew radiation exposure, a and “would allow us to continue develop- concern that has already led to discussions ing the technology within the budget that about whether NASA’s lifetime exposure NASA has — this is pay as you go.” The se- limits — which are 20 percent lower for ries of steps would keep progressing, he women than for men, because of greater says, and would have “the ultimate goal of risk for some cancers — would constrain getting to Mars as soon as we could and flight opportunities for female astronauts. within the budget we have. I think that To deal with the overall risk, Gazarik re- something in the early 2030s is achievable ports the agency is in the early stages of with the budget we have, if — and this is a studying advanced materials and other big if — we can get international partners to techniques for radiation shielding. And Cru- come along and lay in other pieces of the san notes that NASA is looking at in-space infrastructure.” Whether it’s the Russians or systems such as the Mars Science Lab and Europeans, he says, “Most spacefaring na- Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter for purposes tions are very interested in being part of of “revalidating some of our data related to this journey.” plastics and their ability to absorb radiation Adds Jason Crusan, director of NASA’s and provide radiation shielding.” advanced exploration systems division, “Every time we fly a mission, whether it’s Big decision human or robotic, we evaluate it by the If a concerted effort to conduct a human opportunity to increase the knowledge… Mars mission does go forward, the potential and reduce the gaps that we have [on get- landing sites are intriguing. NASA’s 5.0 ar- ting] from here to Mars.” The 5.0 architec- chitecture document discusses at length ture is “pretty comprehensive in that re- sites such as Jezero Crater, where a standing gard,” he says. body of water existed during the Noachian

All photos from NASA

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 43 Picking a landing site: NASA Data gathered by NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution spacecraft, now on its way toward Mars, is intended to help. period, an early time in the planet’s history. what specific questions they should pursue Another widely viewed target is Mangala in earnest,” he says. Indeed, human explor- Valles, an outflow channel that saw massive ers “would enable progress that would oth- releases of water in the past and may con- erwise have required decades….I do not tain icy near-surface deposits. think we have seen anything yet in terms of James Garvin, who co-chaired the what Mars has to offer about our solar sys- NASA-chartered Human Exploration of tem, the prevalence of life and our role in Mars Science Analysis Group and is chief the universe,” says Garvin. scientist at NASA Goddard Space Flight All the people I spoke with cite their Center, cautions that it would be premature career-long commitment and passion about to select a landing site before additional in- the goal of getting humans to Mars. “I be- formation is gathered by the Mars Recon- lieve as a career NASA scientist with 28-plus naissance Orbiter and by upcoming mis- years of service…that Mars is the optimal sions such as NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and destination to give humanity the confidence Volatile Evolution, the ESA/Russian Exo- to know that some day we can escape our Mars and the NASA 2020 science rover mis- precious Earth and go elsewhere, even in sions. But he expresses a tentative prefer- these ‘pre-Warp’ civilization days,” said ence for visiting a place such as the Garvin in an e-mail. “Mars is the place, and Eberswalde Crater, whose preserved river all we need is the dedication to make it our delta system could hold biosignatures in its cathedral to the stars.” rock record. Lockheed Martin’s James Crocker sums When asked if a human Mars mission it up this way: “I know a young engineer, would be worth the expense from a scien- who happened to be me, who graduated tific standpoint, Garvin is emphatic: “Hu- just in time to get down to the Marshall man flight systems would bring with them Space Flight Center for the very last Apollo greater capabilities for accessing new mission to the moon, Apollo. 17. And I was places on Mars, and for returning ‘high- hurrying to get through Georgia Tech in graded’ samples of rocks, ices and even at- four years, which was pretty challenging mospheric gases for study here on Earth,” even in those days, because I was afraid he says. Human explorers — ideally aided they were going to get to Mars without me. by robotic counterparts — would also accel- Little did I know that it would take a long erate the pace of discovery, “provided we time for us to do that. I’m of the school that can optimize where they should go and [says] we just ought to get on with it.”

44 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 LAUNCHER about the asteroid rendezvous mission be- currently flying or in development — Delta (Continued from page 37) cause it’s a multi-billion-dollar effort. The 4 Heavy, Atlas 5 and the Falcon Heavy. question is, how is that going to be paid But experts say neither has enough pay- for?” said Wilson. load capability to get a crew mission to the Wilson questions the need for a heavy- moon or beyond without resorting to alter- lift space launch vehicle destined for what native mission architectures that would in- he calls dubious deep space missions, volve, for instance, “fuel depots” — in- when there is a promising program focused space “gas stations” where the launch on manned flight within low Earth orbit vehicle would stop to pick up the addi- that could use the funding currently being tional fuel needed to proceed. The SLS is directed to the SLS: NASA’s Commercial big enough to carry all the fuel it will need Crew Development program, or CCDev. for a deep space mission. Mission capability is key, according to Closer to home Lyles. He says the SLS wasn’t designed with CCDev is an effort coordinated by NASA a specific mission in mind, but as an evolv- with private contractors bidding to develop able rocket that could service any potential a “space taxi,” a crew vehicle that would future mission — whether a manned flight to ferry astronauts and potential space tourists Mars, delivery of cargo to a future lunar or- to the International Space Station or any bital station or putting in orbit a large space other future installations in low Earth orbit. telescope. In his view, just because NASA The four main contenders in the program hasn’t defined all those missions doesn’t are Boeing’s CST-100 spacecraft, SpaceX’s mean SLS is a rocket to nowhere. “The only Dragon, Sierra Nevada’s Dream Chaser reason we don’t specify one mission is be- space plane and Blue Origin’s orbital vehi- cause we don’t want to lock the capability” cle. The CCDev program’s first scheduled to one particular mission. Once specific flight was supposed to take place in 2015, missions are selected, NASA wants to feel but it has fallen behind schedule, with confident that “we built in to SLS [the] capa- NASA Administrator Charles Bolden blam- bility to do any of those. So I don’t have to ing funding issues. For fiscal year 2012 spend money next time to develop some- Congress appropriated only $406 million in thing totally new,” says Lyles. funds, less than half of the $850 million re- For all the criticism, the SLS program quested by the Obama administration. seems to be chugging along, hitting the Proponents of CCDev look with envy project milestones on schedule and getting at the money slated for SLS. According to its yearly funding approved by Congress. In Lyles, pitting the two against each other fact, the SLS has some powerful backers on would be like comparing apples to or- the Hill. Republican Senator Shelby of Ala- anges. Though the SLS can stand in as a bama, home to NASA’s Marshall Space space taxi if need be, its main purpose is Flight Center, where NASA is managing the deep space exploration: “The commercial program, is a strong, politically powerful launch vehicle industry is very complemen- supporter. Shelby said in an email, “If we tary to the SLS. SLS is focused on beyond are to maintain our proud role as the global lower orbit,” he says. “The commercial leader in human space flight, then we must companies are taking over what NASA used continue to push the current boundaries. to be responsible for — which is space Aside from SLS, there is no credible, near- travel to the lower orbit, essentially to the term option to travel beyond low-Earth or- International Space Station, whether it be bit. That is why I strongly support it.” crew or cargo. The complementary effect is Shelby is vice chairman of the Senate Com- that we gain a large industry to go into mittee on Appropriations. lower orbit; at the same time we can now One industry veteran says that in a time focus on beyond lower orbit with our of over-stretched budgets, having “friends in launch system,” says Lyles. high places” is what will ultimately assure longevity for a NASA program like the SLS. Reaching higher Despite the heated discussion around the And for going beyond low Earth orbit, SLS, he says, what matters are the votes of Lyles says the SLS is the only game in the majority of the U.S. Senators on the Com- town: “There is nothing there today that I merce, Justice and Science Subcommittee. If know of that has the payload capability of they are on board, the program will proceed. SLS in its fully evolved configuration.” “The rest of the conversation, frankly, is just There are commercial heavy-lift rockets a bunch of hot air,” he says.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 45 25 Years Ago, March 1989 March 5 A scientific payload weighing chambers to aid steering. Flight Interna- 589 kilograms is launched from the tional, March 1964, Page 482. March 6 ESA’s Ariane 4 rocket National Center for Atmospheric launches Japan’s first privately owned Research site near Palestine, Texas, and March 19 The octagon-shaped 120- commercial communications satellite, carried up to 97,000 feet by a balloon. pound Beacon Explorer A satellite, JCSAT 1, along with the Meteosat The instrumented balloon, part of the designed for a comprehensive survey MOP 1 European weather satellite. Coronascope 2 project, takes photos to of the Earth’s ionosphere, is launched JCSAT 1 handles business communica- aid studies of the effects of the sun’s on a Delta rocket from Cape Canaveral, tions and relays voice, video, facsimile corona upon Earth’s magnetic field and Fla. However, the Delta’s third stage and high-speed data. NASA, Astronau- upper atmosphere. Houston Post, burns for only 22 seconds instead of 40 tics and Aeronautics, 1986-90, Page March 6, 1964. seconds, and the satellite fails to orbit. 207; Aviation Week, March 13, 1989, D. Baker, “Spaceflight and Rocketry,” Pages 29-30. March 8 Air Marshal Sir Robert Page 164; Flight International, March 26, Hamilton Clark-Hall, one of Britain’s 1964, Page 480. March 29 The two-stage Starfire sub- earliest military pilots, dies at age 80 orbital rocket, developed by Space Serv- in New Zealand. Awarded his aviator’s March 25 The first live TV transmissions ices, lifts off at the White Sands Missile certificate in 1911, Clark-Hall served are made from Japan Range in New Mexico. This is the nation’s as the first specialist armament officer to the U.S., using first licensed launch of a commercial of the naval air wing and was involved NASA’s Relay 2 rocket designed for spaceflight. The test in the first use of machine guns in communications launch takes the rocket on a 198-mile aircraft. During World War I he also satellite. The space- ballistic trajectory. The flight lasts 15 commanded the first seaplane carrier, craft was launched minutes and carries several microgravity HMS Ark Royal. After he retired, he on a Thor-Delta on experiments. NASA, Astronautics and volunteered and served again with the Jan. 21. New York Aeronautics, 1986-90, Page 209. Royal New Zealand Air Force during Times, March 26, 1964, Page 3. World War II. Flight International, 50 Years Ago, March 1964 March 19, 1964, Page 450. March 26 For the first time, a mockup of the Apollo Lunar Excursion Module is March 2 French aircraft designer March 11 Britain’s four-engine Siddeley shown to the press by its developer and Raymond Saulnier, Argosy Series 200 military transport and builder, Grumman Aircraft, at the known for a long cargo aircraft, to be used by the Royal company’s plant in Bethpage, N.Y. The line of Morane- Air Force, makes its first flight, module is designed to make manned Saulnier aircraft, piloted by the company’s chief test pilot, landings on the surface of the moon dies. It was Eric Franklin. The 200 series has a larger for Project Apollo. Missiles and Rockets, Saulnier who freight hold and enlarged front and rear April 6, 1964, Page 26. designed the doors that allow it to carry standard-size Bleriot 11, the cargo pallets. The plane also has a March 27 Britain’s second satellite, plane flown in lighter redesigned wing, increasing the Ariel 2, is launched from Wallops Island, 1909 by Louis maximum range, and Rolls-Royce Dart Va., by a four-stage Blériot when he became 532/1 turboprops. Aviation Week, solid-propellant Scout the first person to fly a heavier-than- March 23, 1964, Page 28. rocket. The 150- air craft across the English Channel. pound spacecraft is a But perhaps the most famous of his March 17 France launches its first modified version of inventions was an interrupter gear, or missile submarine, the Gymnote, at Ariel 1 and carries gun-synchronizing device, produced Cherbourg. It carries solid-propellant British science during World War I. The device regu- ballistic missiles similar to those of the instruments from the lated the fire of a machine gun so as U.S. Polaris, each having vectored thrust universities of Cam- to enable its bullets to pass between bridge and Manchester and the Air the blades of the spinning propeller. Ministry Meteorological Office. Ariel 2 Flight International, March 19, 1964, is to observe the ozone in the outer Page 407; Raymond Saulnier file, atmosphere, discern galactic noise and National Air and Space Museum. measure micrometeoroid impacts.

46 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H. Winter and Robert van der Linden

D. Baker, “Spaceflight and Rocketry,” ing and meritorious accomplishments experimental flight. Interavia, March Page 164. in parachute design.” Aircraft Year 28, 1939, Page 9. Book, 1940, Page 431. March 29 Two California astronomers jointly announce their discovery of what March 5 Flying Stinson Reliants, pilots is believed to be the most distant object Norman Rintoul and Victor Yesulantes identified to date. Named 3C-147, it is demonstrate a nonstop airmail system by a quasar, a quasi-stellar radio source, picking up a mail sack from a pole at several billion light-years away from Coatesville, Pa., for All American Aviation, Earth. One of the astronomers, Thomas a predecessor of Allegheny Airlines. A. Matthews at Cal Tech, located the Aircraft Year Book, 1940, Page 432. March 30 The Navy Department con- object by observing its radio emissions tracts with Newport News Shipbuilding with the university’s twin antennas and Drydock for the construction of while Maarten Schmidt photographed the aircraft carrier USS Hornet for a the object from the Mt. Palomar Obser- cost of $31.8 million exclusive of armor vatory. New York Times, March 30, and armament. Aircraft Year Book, 1964, Page 27. 1940, Page 432. March 6-7 Italian pilots Maner Lualdi, March 30 NASA awards North Ameri- Giuseppe Mazzotti and Ettore Valente And During March 1939 can Aviation’s Rocketdyne set an international speed record of Division a $158.46-million 242.9 mph for a nonstop flight from – Aircraft designer John K. Northrop, contract for 76 1.5-million- Rome to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in a former vice president of pound-thrust F-1 rocket Fiat BR.20L bomber. The total flight time Douglas Aircraft, engines to power the first is 11 hours and 15 minutes. Aircraft announces the formation stages of the giant Saturn Year Book, 1940, Page 432. of Northrop Aviation. His 5 rocket that will take distinctive flying wing astronauts to the moon March 24 Pilot Jacqueline Cochran sets designs, such as the N-1M, for Project Apollo. NASA a women’s national are among the company’s Release 64-48. altitude record of many notable aircraft. Interavia, 30,052 feet over March 17, 1939, Page 5. And During March 1964 Palm Springs, Calif., in her – The annual Lawrence Sperry Award –Aerojet General receives a $238-million Beechcraft. Aircraft for the greatest contribution to the contract for development of the M-1 liq- Year Book, 1940, advancement of aeronautics goes to uid-hydrogen/liquid Page 432. Russell Conwell Newhouse “for the oxygen 1.5-million- development and first practical applica- pound-thrust rocket March 26 Pan American Airways begins tion of the terrain clearance indicator.” engine. It is to be a trial flight for its forthcoming North Also called an absolute altimeter, it was more powerful than Atlantic U.S.-to-Europe service when developed through Bell Telephone Labs the F-1, although it its Boeing 314 Yankee Clipper leaves and was publicly demonstrated in does not become Port Washington, N.Y., for Horta in the October 1938 in United Air Lines’ Boeing operational. Aviation Azores. The plane covers the 2,360-mile 247–D “flying laboratory.” Aero Digest, Week, March 30, route at an average speed of 140 mph. February 1939, Page 89. 1964, Page 35. On March 30, the survey flight continues to Lisbon and other European points. 100 Years Ago, March 1914 75 Years Ago, March 1939 The Clipper carries 21 people on this March 13 French pilots Antoine March 3 The Royal Destrem and Henri de L’Escaille fly two Aeronautical Society Nieuport floatplanes from St. Raphael awards Leslie L. Irvin across the Mediterranean to Ajaccio the Wakefield Gold on Corsica. A. van Hoorebeeck, Medal for “outstand- La Conquete de L’Air, Page 103.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MARCH 2014 47 AIAA

On Wednesday, March 12, 2014, AIAA members will share their passion about aerospace issues on Capitol Hill.

With the impacts of sequestration rippling through the R&D workforce and the aerospace enterprise, your participation in the 2014 AIAA Congressional Visits Day Program is more critical than ever!

Come to Washington, DC, to let your representatives hear how important aerospace is to our country’s prosperity and security, and take an active role in helping shape the future of our industry.

Join us as we meet with congressional decision makers to discuss the importance of science, engineering, and technology to our national security and economic vitality.

For more information visit www.aiaa.org/CVD2014 or contact Duane Hyland at [email protected] or 703.264.7558.

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AIAA Board of Directors Voting Now Under Way! Help shape the direction of the Institute with your vote. To read the candidates’ statements and vote online, visit www.aiaa.org/BODvote.

All Votes Due by 24 March 2014 – Vote Today!

To Vote Online: Visit www.aiaa.org/BODvote. If you have not already logged in, you will be prompted to do so. Follow the on-screen directions to view candidate materials and cast your ballot. Vote by 24 March 2014.

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The distinction you gain with each Earn the Respect of your membership advancement earns the respect of your peers and employer – and bolsters Peers and Colleagues your reputation throughout the industry. AIAA Members who have accomplished or been in charge of important engineering or scientific work and who have made notable valuable contributions to the arts, sciences, or technology of aeronautics or astronautics are encouraged to apply.

HONORARY FELLOW Advance Your Accepting Nomination Packages: 1 January 2014 – 15 June 2014

FELLOW Accepting Nomination Packages: Membership 1 January 2014 – 15 June 2014

ASSOCIATE FELLOW Accepting Nomination Packages: 15 December 2013 – 15 April 2014

Senior Member Advancements are reviewed and processed every month.

For more information and requirements, please visit http://www.aiaa.org/Honors or please contact Patricia A. Carr, Program Manager, Membership Advancement Program, at [email protected] or 703.264.7523

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AIAA Board of Directors Voting Now Under Way! Help shape the direction of the Institute with your vote. To read the All Votes Due by 24 March 2014– Vote Today! candidates’ statements and vote online, visit www.aiaa.org/BODvote.

To Vote Online: Visit www.aiaa.org/BODvote, log in if you have not To Vote by Paper Ballot: Request a ballot from AIAA Customer Service. yet done so, and follow the on-screen directions to view candidate materials Mail completed ballot to Survey & Ballot Systems, 7653 Anagram Drive, and cast your ballot. Vote by 24 March 2014. Eden Prairie, MN 55344, to arrive by 24 March 2014.

American Institute of Questions? Contact AIAA Customer Service at [email protected], Aeronautics and Astronautics 703.264.7500, or (toll-free, U.S. only) 800.639.2422. 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500 Reston, VA 20191 www.aiaa.org

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16–20 June 2014 Hyatt Regency Atlanta Atlanta, Georgia Register Continuing Education Courses and Workshops TODAY! Business Management for Engineers Saturday & Sunday, 14–15 June 2014 Instructor: Alan Tribble Summary: This course is intended to provide an overview of basic business principles used to manage a company. In particular, this course will help individuals with a strong technical Early-Bird Deadline: background in science or engineering prepare for the transition from a role as a technical 9 June 2014 contributor to a business leader.

Benchmark Problems for Airframe Noise Computations (BANC-III) Workshop Saturday & Sunday, 14–15 June 2014 Summary: The BANC-III Workshop will build upon the BANC-I and BANC-II Workshops in 2010 and 2012, respectively, to enable a more definitive assessment of the state of the art in the computations and measurements of airframe noise and, in particular, will include a stronger collaborative element from the outset.

For more information, visit: www.aiaa-aviation.org/ContinuingEd

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