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Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. Target Price: HKD26.30 Price: HKD23.00 Balanced Growth Story Remains Intact Market Cap: USD17,337M Bloomberg Ticker: 960 HK

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Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. Target Price: HKD26.30 Price: HKD23.00 Balanced Growth Story Remains Intact Market Cap: USD17,337M Bloomberg Ticker: 960 HK Results Review Hong Kong FY17 results announced on 23 Mar were in line with expectations 26 March 2018 Property | Real Estate Buy (Maintained) Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. Target Price: HKD26.30 Price: HKD23.00 Balanced Growth Story Remains Intact Market Cap: USD17,337m Bloomberg Ticker: 960 HK We envision a share price appreciation in the medium term for Longfor - Share Data our Top Pick among mid-cap developers - driven by its strong, sustained Avg Daily Turnover (HKD/USD) 144m/18.4m and balanced growth. In FY18F, the momentum for both contracted sales 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 12.8 - 26.6 and earnings growth should remain intact, whilst its resilient financial position should allow itself to sustain a 40% payout. Reiterate BUY with a Free Float (%) 30 new HKD26.30 TP (from HKD23.00, 14% upside) based on the same 25% Shares outstanding (m) 5,915 discount to end-FY18F ENAV of HKD35.10 (from HKD30.70) after factoring Estimated Return 14% in its new land bank and FY18F margin assumptions. Shareholders (%) FY17 results in line, positive dividend surprise. Longfor Group Holdings Wu Yajun 43.7 Ltd.’s (Longfor) FY17 revenue increased by 31.5% while recurring net profit Cai Kui 26.2 rose by 25.9% YoY, or 3.9% above and 1.7% below our expectations respectively. Meanwhile, GPM came in better-than-expected at 33.9% (vs 31.1% of our forecast). Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Similarly with several other developers, Longfor surprised the market with a hike in its payout ratio to 40% (FY16: 35%). Coupled with an unexpected Absolute 17.5 (6.1) 20.8 6.2 66.7 special dividend of CNY0.085/share, full year DPS came in at CNY0.758/share, Relative 16.2 (3.0) 18.3 (2.5) 42.1 or 9.2% higher than our estimate. Also, its weighted average borrowing cost Source: Bloomberg declined further to 4.5% (FY16: 4.9%). Longfor Properties Co (960 HK) Decent contracted sales growth ahead. The sales target of CNY200bn Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) (+28.1% YoY) from its CNY300bn saleable resources, was announced during 26 151 the analyst briefing; it is in line with our forecasts and higher than our estimated 21 128 sector average level of 15-20%. Given Longfor’s abundant total saleable 16 106 resources of CNY900bn (based on existing landbank), we believe it has the 11 84 25 necessary resources to maintain a 24.4% CAGR in contracted sales over 20 FY17-20F in order to maintain its top-10 position. 15 Resilient margins. Over FY18-20F, we anticipate Longfor’s GPMs to remain at 10 5 31.3-32.6% which are mainly underpinned by stable GPMs in its property Volm 17 17 17 18 17 17 - - - - - development segment (landbank’s average land cost amounted to a 30% GPM - Jul Mar Feb Nov Sep based on the most recent ASP) and increasing contribution from investment May property and property management segments that commands 50% or above Source: Bloomberg GPMs. All in all, we anticipate Longfor’s NPMs to remain steady at 12-13% over FY18-20F despite an increasing distribution of profits to minority interests over the same period. Adding certainty to a 40% payout. Assuming a stable revenue booking schedule, we anticipate Longfor’s earnings to grow at a sustained 19% CAGR from FY17-20F. Coupled with disciplined landbanking, we anticipate Longfor to maintain its net gearing between 45-54% over FY18-20F, and be able to deliver a 40% dividend payout. Maintain BUY and Top Pick for mid-cap developers, with a new HKD26.30 TP, based on a 25% discount to end-FY18F ENAV of HKD35.10. Downside risk to our call is a policy risk overshoot in tier-1 & 2 cities. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F Total turnover (CNYm) 54,799 72,075 101,702 119,186 134,053 Reported net profit (CNYm) 9,153 12,599 12,644 14,914 16,500 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 7,760 9,770 12,644 14,914 16,500 Recurring net profit growth (%) 11.7 25.9 29.4 18.0 10.6 Analysts Recurring EPS (CNY) 1.33 1.68 2.14 2.52 2.79 Toni Ho CFA DPS (CNY) 0.47 0.76 0.86 1.01 1.12 +852 2103 5888 Recurring P/E (x) 13.9 11.0 8.7 7.3 6.6 P/B (x) 1.75 1.53 1.38 1.24 1.11 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 4.1 4.6 5.4 6.0 Return on average equity (%) 15.7 19.0 17.0 18.0 17.9 Angelo Wong Return on average assets (%) 4.5 4.3 2.9 2.6 2.4 Net debt to equity (%) 53.9 47.7 47.4 53.3 45.7 +852 2103 9218 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 3.1 (0.3) [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. Hong Kong Results Review 26 March 2018 Property | Real Estate Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on: 2018-03-23. Asia Financial summary Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F Hong Kong Recurring EPS (CNY) 1.33 1.68 2.14 2.52 2.79 Property EPS (CNY) 1.57 2.17 2.14 2.52 2.79 Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. DPS (CNY) 0.47 0.76 0.86 1.01 1.12 Bloomberg 960 HK BVPS (CNY) 10.6 12.1 13.4 14.9 16.6 Buy Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 5,818 5,806 5,915 5,915 5,915 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F 25% discount to our end-FY18F ENAV of HKD35.1 Recurring P/E (x) 13.9 11.0 8.7 7.3 6.6 P/E (x) 11.8 8.5 8.7 7.3 6.6 Key drivers P/B (x) 1.75 1.53 1.38 1.24 1.11 GPM recovery, sustainable contracted sales and FCF Yield (%) (4.3) (7.5) 1.3 (5.9) 9.9 rental growth Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 4.1 4.6 5.4 6.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.46 3.58 2.92 3.09 2.78 Key risks EV/EBIT (x) 5.48 3.59 2.93 3.10 2.78 Further tightening policies in tier-1&2 cities Income statement (CNYm) Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F Company Profile Total turnover 54,799 72,075 101,702 119,186 134,053 Longfor Group Holdings Ltd. (Longfor) was Gross profit 15,935 24,436 33,199 37,989 41,989 established in Chongqing in 1993. Longfor spread its presence across 36 cities in Western China, the EBITDA 12,545 19,432 26,409 29,635 32,353 Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim, as well as Depreciation and amortisation (60) (60) (60) (60) (60) Southern and Central China. Its brand is well-known in Operating profit 12,485 19,372 26,349 29,575 32,293 the country’s south-western region. Besides property Net interest 88 270 (91) (94) (123) development, Longfor is also engaged in property Income from associates & JVs 1,434 1,868 2,447 3,415 4,221 investment and management businesses, through its Paradise Walk and Starry Street series. It was listed Exceptional income - net 1,949 5,044 322 390 471 on the HKEx in 2009. Pre-tax profit 15,956 26,554 29,027 33,286 36,862 Taxation (6,021) (10,075) (10,885) (11,983) (13,270) Minority interests (782) (3,880) (5,498) (6,389) (7,092) Recurring net profit 7,760 9,770 12,644 14,914 16,500 Cash flow (CNYm) Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F Change in working capital 13,898 11,503 16,627 6,995 23,729 Cash flow from operations 17,436 17,985 27,442 19,561 36,851 Capex (22,050) (26,050) (26,050) (26,050) (26,050) Cash flow from investing activities (22,050) (26,050) (26,050) (26,050) (26,050) Dividends paid (1,654) (2,083) (5,039) (5,058) (5,966) Cash flow from financing activities 3,952 17,449 1,796 9,656 (1,328) Cash at beginning of period 17,920 17,258 26,642 29,830 32,997 Net change in cash (662) 9,384 3,188 3,167 9,472 Ending balance cash 17,258 26,642 29,830 32,997 42,469 Balance sheet (CNYm) Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F Total cash and equivalents 17,355 26,761 29,949 33,116 42,589 Tangible fixed assets 29,546 43,480 44,589 45,727 46,894 Total investments 53,354 81,288 88,806 96,683 104,959 Total other assets 3,442 4,328 4,328 4,328 4,328 Total assets 224,830 362,764 496,938 628,858 771,034 Short-term debt 5,333 5,589 5,872 6,169 6,481 Total long-term debt 52,539 71,816 78,368 92,785 97,109 Other liabilities 216 658 658 658 658 Total liabilities 149,715 256,585 382,419 505,391 637,667 Shareholders' equity 61,765 70,567 78,153 87,101 97,001 Minority interests 13,350 35,612 36,366 36,366 36,366 Total equity 75,115 106,179 114,519 123,467 133,367 Net debt 40,517 50,643 54,290 65,837 61,002 Total liabilities & equity 224,830 362,764 496,938 628,858 771,034 Key metrics Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20F Revenue growth (%) 15.6 31.5 41.1 17.2 12.5 Recurrent EPS growth (%) 11.7 26.2 27.0 18.0 10.6 Gross margin (%) 29.1 33.9 32.6 31.9 31.3 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 22.9 27.0 26.0 24.9 24.1 Net profit margin (%) 16.7 17.5 12.4 12.5 12.3 Dividend payout ratio (%) 22.8 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Capex/sales (%) 40.2 36.1 25.6 21.9 19.4 Interest cover (x) 235 428 105 108 100 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Longfor Group Holdings Ltd.
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